Forex News Timeline

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $73.55 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price extends the rally as the Middle East tensions escalate and the likelihood of the United States (US)  involving the conflict increases.

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Additionally, a senior commander stated on Saturday that Iran, a major producer of oil, is considering shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, could drive up prices for crude oil in the near term.The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending June 13 fell sharply by 10.133 million barrels, compared to a decline of 370,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 600,000 barrels. So far this year, crude oil inventories are up 7.6 million barrels, according to oil price calculations of API data.On the other hand, expectations of lower demand might cap the upside for the WTI. In its monthly oil report on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (EIA) revised its world oil demand estimate downwards by 20,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast and increased the supply estimate by 200,000 bpd to 1.8 million bpd.Oil traders will keep an eye on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday, which is expected to keep interest rates steady at its June meeting. Futures markets expect two rate cuts by year-end, possibly beginning in September. Also, the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report will be published.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) registered at -9.1% above expectations (-9.7%) in April

Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance climbed from previous ¥-408.91B to ¥-305.5B in May

Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) came in at 6.6%, above expectations (4%) in April

Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total registered at ¥-637.6B above expectations (¥-893B) in May

Japan Imports (YoY) below forecasts (-6.7%) in May: Actual (-7.7%)

Japan Exports (YoY) registered at -1.7% above expectations (-3.8%) in May

GBP/USD plummeted over 1.2% on Tuesday, backsliding through near-term congestion and popping out the other side near the 1.3400 handle after global investors were knocked off their pre-seeded hopes that the Israel-Iran altercation would find a quick and peaceful resolution.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory near 1.3690 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some buyers amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.

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The US Dollar (USD) attracts some buyers amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Investors will closely monitor the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. Israel is set to intensify its attacks on Tehran, while the United States (US) is considering expanding its role amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Following his early departure from the G-7 meeting in Canada on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said that he wants a permanent end to Iran's route to nuclear weapons. The conflict has raised concerns about a wider impact on the global economy, which might boost the safe-haven currency like the Greenback in the near term. On the other hand, the latest downbeat US economic data could exert some selling pressure on the USD. The US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that US Retail Sales declined by 0.9% in May, compared to the 0.1% decrease (revised from +0.1%) seen in April. This reading came in worse than the market expectation for a contraction of 0.7%. Additionally, extended gains in Crude Oil prices might lift the commodity-linked Loonie and create a headwind for the pair. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.   Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

 

New Zealand Current Account (QoQ) below expectations ($-2.2B) in 1Q: Actual ($-2.324B)

New Zealand Current Account - GDP Ratio: -5.7% (1Q) vs -6.2%

The AUD/JPY reversed its course on Tuesday after posting solid gains on Monday of over 0.98% amid an improvement in market players' mood despite increasing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict.

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New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey increased to 91.2 in 2Q from previous 89.2

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