Forex News Timeline

22:07 Dow Jones Industrial Average roils on hectic Tuesday
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) churned in a tight range on Tuesday as investors grapple with mixed data and an overall headwind in non-tech stocks.

21:40 Forex Today: The US labour market remains in the spotlight
The Greenback traded on the defensive for the second day in a row on Wednesday amid lower yields and the absence of news in Powell’s remarks at an event hosted by the New York Times.

The Greenback traded on the defensive for the second day in a row on Wednesday amid lower yields and the absence of news in Powell’s remarks at an event hosted by the New York Times.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, December 5:The US Dollar Index (DXY) kept the trade in the low-106.00s against the backdrop of diminishing yields and further recovery in the risk complex. The October’s Balance of Trade figures are due, along with the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts. Furthermore, the Fed’s Barkin is expected to speak.EUR/USD added to recent gains and looked to consolidate the breakout of the key 1.0500 barrier. The HCOB Construction PMI in Germany and the euro area are expected, seconded by Factory Orders in Germany, and Retail Sales in the euro zone. In addition, the ECB’s Montagner is due to speak. GBP/USD managed to trespass the key 1.2700 hurdle amid the widespread rebound in the risk-associated assets and the weak tone in the Greenback. Next on tap is the S&P Global Construction PMI, followed by New Car Sales, and the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel. In addition, the BoE’s Greene will speak. USD/JPY rebounded further and briefly rose to three-day highs north of the 151.00 barrier, although it loss some impulse towards the end of the NA session. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will be published seconded by the speech by the BoJ’s Nakamura. There was no respite for the selling pressure in AUD/USD, which this time challenged the key contention zone near 0.6400, weighed down by poor data in Oz. The Balance of Trade results take centre stage Down Under. Prices of WTI plummeted below the $69.00 mark per barrel following the mixed report by the EIA despite geopolitical concerns remained well in place. Prices of Gold added to Tuesday’s uptick and maintained their gradual uptrend alive, this time flirting with the $2,660 mark per troy ounce. Silver prices rose for the second consecutive day and confronted four-week highs near the $31.50 region per ounce.

20:37 US Dollar weakens after disappointing ISM and S&P Services data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, declined toward 106.10 on Wednesday amidst slight profit-taking after steep rallies against many major G20 currencies this week.

20:01 Mexican Peso rallies following mixed US economic data
The Mexican Peso registers decent gains versus the US Dollar after mixed US economic data augmented the chances that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could lower interest rates at the December meeting.

19:48 Fed’s Powell discusses monetary policy amid increasing bets for further easing
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to participate in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook on Wednesday at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York.

18:14 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair sees more gains and rises to 1.0530
The EUR/USD pair found support around the psychological 1.0500 level after opening the week with a sharp decline of over 1% and tallies a two-day winning streak.

Pair saw modest 0.20% gains and positioned itself at 1.0530.Buyers target continues to be the 20-day SMA.Until the short-term SMA isn’t recovered, the outlook will be bearish.The EUR/USD pair found support around the psychological 1.0500 level after opening the week with a sharp decline of over 1% and tallies a two-day winning streak. On Wednesday, the pair saw a modest rebound, rising to 1.0530 as buyers stepped in, though the technical outlook remains bearish. Despite this recovery, the pair remains below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which continues to act as a strong resistance level. Indicators have gained some ground but remain in negative territory, reflecting lingering downside risks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has ticked higher to 42 but still signals bearish momentum, while the MACD histogram shows slightly improving momentum but both indicators don’t give clear signals of sustained reversal has yet to materialize. For now, traders will focus on whether the pair can build on this rebound and regain the 20-day SMA. If bullish momentum fades, the pair remains at risk of retesting support levels at 1.0500 and 1.0450, while resistance near 1.0550 could cap further upside in the near term. EUR/USD daily chart

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below expectations (-1M) in November 29: Actual (-5.073M)
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below expectations (-1M) in November 29: Actual (-5.073M)

17:11 Gold: Sizable liquidations over the coming week are possible – TDS
Precious metals have remained locked in a tight range, but recent flows have been interesting, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Precious metals have remained locked in a tight range, but recent flows have been interesting, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Precious metals remain locked in a tight range “Firstly, our advanced positioning analytics suggest macro funds have re-accumulated a substantial portion of their extreme positions held in Gold prior to US election night. This is surprising given the notably different outlook for Fed policy, which no longer bears the same risk of an 'overly easy' policy on the horizon, which points to additional vulnerabilities.” “CTAs have been whipsawed both ways, but price action has now unlocked scenarios that could see sizable liquidations over the coming week, which will feature Chair Powell's moderated discussion, the NFP report and will soon be followed by the Dec FOMC meeting.” “There may well be another shoe to drop after all before the balance of risks shifts back towards the upside in Gold.”

17:10 US ISM Services PMI rose less than expected in November
According to the Institute for Supply Mangement (ISM), the Services PMI eased to 52.1 in November, coming in short of estimates at 55.5 and markedly lower than October’s 56 reading.

According to the Institute for Supply Mangement (ISM), the Services PMI eased to 52.1 in November, coming in short of estimates at 55.5 and markedly lower than October’s 56 reading.

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in October
United States Factory Orders (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in October

17:00 United States ISM Services New Orders Index dipped from previous 57.4 to 53.7 in November
United States ISM Services New Orders Index dipped from previous 57.4 to 53.7 in November

17:00 United States ISM Services PMI registered at 52.1, below expectations (55.5) in November
United States ISM Services PMI registered at 52.1, below expectations (55.5) in November

17:00 United States ISM Services Prices Paid up to 58.2 in November from previous 58.1
United States ISM Services Prices Paid up to 58.2 in November from previous 58.1

17:00 United States ISM Services Employment Index: 51.5 (November) vs previous 53
United States ISM Services Employment Index: 51.5 (November) vs previous 53

16:59 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to crack 1.2700, oscillates around 1.2650
The GBP/USD fluctuated between gains/loses, trapped at around the 1.2630-1.2700 range for the third consecutive day.

16:48 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD experiences V-shape recovery from $30.50 after US ADP job data
Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers in a V-shape manner from the key support of $30.50 in Wednesday’s North American session and refreshes an intraday high near $31.20 after the release of the United States (US) ADP Employment Change data for November.

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 54.9, below expectations (55.3) in November
United States S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 54.9, below expectations (55.3) in November

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 56.1 below forecasts (57) in November
United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 56.1 below forecasts (57) in November

16:36 Gold price edges higher as ADP falls shorts of expectations
Gold prices consolidate at around $2,650 for the seventh consecutive day, posts modest gains of over 0.20% after US jobs data revealed that private hiring dipped, missing economists forecasts.

16:06 Fed's Musalem: Will wait to see data before deciding on December meeting
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday that it might be possible to pause rate cuts at the upcoming meetings, and added that they are keeping all options for the December meeting.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday that it might be possible to pause rate cuts at the upcoming meetings, and added that they are keeping all options for the December meeting. Key takeaways "Will wait to see data before deciding on December Fed meeting." "Restrictive monetary policy will continue to cool inflation." "Chances of labor market trouble are low right now." "The job isn't done to bring inflation back to target." "Monetary policy is moderately restrictive." "Uncertainty about monetary policy, election, had weighed on the economy." Market reactionThe US Dollar Index edges higher following these comments and was last seen rising 0.32% on the day at 106.68.

15:39 Lagarde speech: Growth will be weaker in short term
While testifying before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that the economic growth in the Eurozone will be weaker in the near term, per Reuters.

While testifying before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that the economic growth in the Eurozone will be weaker in the near term, per Reuters. Key takeaways "Further ahead, the Euro area’s economic recovery should start to gather some steam." "The medium-term economic outlook is uncertain." "Inflation is expected to temporarily increase in the fourth quarter of this year." "Inflation to decline to target in the course of next year." "We are therefore not pre-committing to a particular rate path." Market reactionEUR/USD edges slightly lower following these comments and was last seen losing 0.18% on the day at 1.0490.

15:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) below expectations (0.2%) in 3Q: Actual (-0.4%)
Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) below expectations (0.2%) in 3Q: Actual (-0.4%)

15:26 EUR/GBP stays vulnerable below 0.8300 as French government sets to dissolve
The EUR/GBP pair ticks lower and sustains below the cruical resistance of 0.8300 in Wednesday’s North American session.

15:15 United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (150K) in November: Actual (146K)
United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (150K) in November: Actual (146K)

15:01 GBP/USD: Crawls higher from intraday low in positive, technical fashion – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is little changed on the session, but the GBP price action is leaning a little more positive, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is little changed on the session, but the GBP price action is leaning a little more positive, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP nudges higher from intraday low “UK Composite and Services PMIs were revised up modestly from the flash estimates (to 50.5, from 49.9 and 50.8, from 50.0 respectively). BoE Governor Bailey commented that four rate cuts in 2025 remained his base case.” “GBP price action is leaning a little more positive, with strong gains off the early European low setting up a bullish impulse on the intraday chart. Key (bull trigger) resistance remains distant at 1.2760/65, however. A push above 1.2700 could signal a bit more intent on reaching towards those levels. Support is 1.2625/30.”

14:57 EUR/USD: Helped by PMI revisions ahead of French conf vote – Scotiabank
Final Eurozone November Composite and Services PMIs were revised up a little from the preliminary data (48.3, from 48.1 and 49.5, from 49.2 respectively).

Final Eurozone November Composite and Services PMIs were revised up a little from the preliminary data (48.3, from 48.1 and 49.5, from 49.2 respectively). Firm intraday support below 1.05 is holding the EUR in a tight, sideways range, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR steady around 1.05 “Positive French data revisions did all the heavy lifting. Attention remains on France ahead of today’s parliamentary no-confidence motion. A steady EUR and stable French assets suggests investors are less concerned by the risks around the vote this morning.” “President Macron urged lawmakers not to topple the government and he said yesterday that he will not resign before his term ends in 2027.” “Firm intraday support below 1.05 is holding the EUR in a tight, sideways range but the bid is not really strong enough to drive more gains at the moment. Absent a stronger move higher to test resistance in the 1.0590/95 area, the EUR may drift back to the mid-1.04s.”

14:53 CAD: Markets await jobs data for clues on BoC – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed. CAD is a marginal outperformer among the major currencies as a consequence, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed. CAD is a marginal outperformer among the major currencies as a consequence, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD little changed “Beyond that, there’s little to remark on in terms of positives for the CAD’s near-term outlook. Q3 Productivity and the November S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs this morning are unlikely to change near-term CAD dynamics to any significant degree.” “Market participants are rather waiting for Friday’s employment report before updating views on the BoC policy outlook, with swaps pricing for this month’s policy decision split between a 1/4 point and 1/2 point cut.” “Spot is tracking a little lower on the session. After two rejections a little above 1.4080 over the past couple of sessions, the very shortterm chart does suggest some risk of USD losses extending on a break under 1.4055 (minor double top trigger) which may take spot back to the low 1.40s. Broader trends remain positive and dips to the 1.3950/1.40 area should remain well-supported.”

14:45 EUR/GBP to trade at 0.8150 in 12 months – Rabobank
As a result of the UK’s Brexit referendum in June 2016, the trading range for EUR/GBP swiftly adjusted from trading mostly below the 0.80 level in H1 that year to an average of around 0.8590 in H2 2016, Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

As a result of the UK’s Brexit referendum in June 2016, the trading range for EUR/GBP swiftly adjusted from trading mostly below the 0.80 level in H1 that year to an average of around 0.8590 in H2 2016, Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Foley notes. EUR/GBP seems to be eyeing the downside “Since July 2016 the average trading level for EUR/GBP has been 0.8690. However, having started 2023 close to that average level, the currency pair has subsequently been on a slow grind lower. Last month EUR/GBP dipped close to the 0.8260 level and is currently trading only modestly above this low.” “This raises the question as to whether GBP can achieve pre-Brexit referendum levels vs. the EUR in the foreseeable future. Our 12-month forecast for EUR/GBP is 0.8150. This falls short of a move back to pre-referendum levels. That said, it would take the currency pair below the 2022 low to levels last seen In June 2016, just after the referendum result was published.” “In our view, downside risk to this forecast is more likely to come from a weaker than expected EUR rather than a more emboldened pound.”

14:36 USD moderately higher, defies negative seasonal trend – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is tracking a little higher overall this morning, lifting the DXY to the mid-106 area and potentially setting up trading today for a little more strength— despite usually negative seasonal trends for the dollar broadly in December.

The US Dollar (USD) is tracking a little higher overall this morning, lifting the DXY to the mid-106 area and potentially setting up trading today for a little more strength— despite usually negative seasonal trends for the dollar broadly in December. It’s a busy day for central bank speakers, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD edges marginally higher “The KRW has, however rebounded strongly following yesterday’s fleeting “martial law” announcement by the president. The AUD and the JPY are the leading losers among the majors, falling 1.1% and 0.8% in the session respectively. Australian GDP was weaker than forecast, rising 0.3% in Q3 (versus 0.5% expected). Short rates rallied in response, but a full quarter point cut remains unlikely before March, according to swaps pricing.” “The JPY’s losses were driven by an MNI report suggesting that local political concerns were prompting BoJ officials to err on the side of cautious policy normalization. December swaps pricing eased from reflecting 15bps of tightening to less than 8bps. After yesterday’s stronger-than-expected US JOLTS data, attention turns to the ADP jobs report this morning. Private sector jobs are expected to rise 150k in November.” “It’s a busy day for central bank speakers as well. The Fed’s Musalem (non-voter), Barkin, Daly and Chair Powell are speaking over the course of the day. The Fed also releases what may be a cautious-sounding Beige Book at 14ET. Some ECB policymakers are also on the calendar, including President Lagarde. BoJ Board member Nakamura (generally viewed as a relative policy dove) is speaking this evening (20.30ET).”

14:29 US Dollar edges up as traders shift focus to no-confidence vote in France
The US Dollar (USD) edges up slightly on Wednesday as a no-confidence vote in France is set to take place.

14:01 Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) below expectations (5.9%) in October: Actual (5.8%)
Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) below expectations (5.9%) in October: Actual (5.8%)

14:00 Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in October: Actual (-0.2%)
Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in October: Actual (-0.2%)

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous 6.3% to 2.8% in November 29
United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous 6.3% to 2.8% in November 29

13:35 Crude Oil pops above $70 as traders gauge potential surprises in OPEC+ supply plans
Crude Oil ticks higher for a second day in a row on Wednesday, popping above the $70 round level, with traders getting nervous over geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ set to act. On the geopolitical side, President-elect Donald Trump vowed to drag the

13:15 AUD/USD plunges to near 0.6400 as weak Aussie GDP boosts RBA dovish bets
The AUD/USD pair dives more than 1% to near the round-level support of 0.6400 in Wednesday’s European session.

12:42 Germany 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 2.38% to 2.07%
Germany 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 2.38% to 2.07%

12:31 USD/SGD: Consolidation likely in the near term – OCBC
USD/SGD continued to trade near recent highs; last seen at 1.3464, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/SGD continued to trade near recent highs; last seen at 1.3464, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. USD is waiting for a catalyst to move “Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact for now while RSI is flat. Consolidation likely in the near term. Resistance at 1.3490, 1.3520 levels. Support at 1.3390 (21 DMA), 1.3340 (200 DMA).” “US payrolls data on Fri may provide the directional catalyst for USD while we continue to watch CNY fixing. S$NEER was last at 0.93% above model-implied mid. This still shows that SGD remains firmer vs. peers in the trade basket but it is less firm today (vs. than for most of the year).”

12:29 USD/CNH: Momentum remains strong – UOB Group
Overbought advance could retest the 7.3145 level before a more sustained pullback can be expected.

Overbought advance could retest the 7.3145 level before a more sustained pullback can be expected. Momentum remains strong; the next significant resistance is at last year’s high of 7.3678, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. Next significant resistance is at last year’s high of 7.3678 24-HOUR VIEW: “While we held the view that USD ‘may rise further and break above 7.3000’ yesterday, we indicated that ‘the major resistance at 7.3115 is likely out of reach for now.’ We underestimated the upward momentum, as USD soared to a high of 7.3145, easing off to close at 7.2985, higher by 0.17% for the day. Despite being deeply overbought, the advance appears to have enough momentum to retest the 7.3145 level before a more sustained pullback can be expected. The next resistance at 7.3300 is not expected to come under threat. On the downside, support is at 7.2860, followed by 7.2750.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned positive in USD yesterday (03 Dec, spot at 7.2880), indicating the ‘rapid increase in momentum could lead to USD rising to 7.3115.’ We did not expect USD to exceed the technical target as quickly, as it surged to a high of 7.3145. Momentum remains strong, and now that USD has broken above 7.3145, the next significant resistance level is at 7.3678, last year’s high. To sustain the momentum, USD must not break below 7.2630 (‘strong support’ level was at 7.2550 yesterday).”

12:25 USD/CNH: PBoC may continue to restraint the RMB – OCBC
USD/CNH eased as policymakers continued to keep the daily fix under 7.20.

USD/CNH eased as policymakers continued to keep the daily fix under 7.20. In fact, the CNY fix was even set stronger at 7.1934 than the day before (at 7.1996). Pair was last at 7.2838, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. CNH may still trade under pressure “Fixing pattern suggests that PBoC is doing whatever it takes to restraint the RMB from over-weakening after the initial round of knee-jerk depreciation post-US election outcome. That said, tariff headlines served as a constant reminder that wider tariffs could soon hit when Trump comes on board officially in Jan2025. PBoC may continue to restraint the RMB from excessive weakening via daily fix, but likely they may have to deploy offshore funding squeeze (if need arises) to ensure more effective transmission.” “CNH may still trade under pressure expectations for further rate cuts at home while economic recovery remains uneven. Caixin services PMI was weaker than expected while manufacturing PMI was stronger than expected. Housing market has also showed very mixed signs of stabilisation. While there may be other stimulus support measures to support the domestic economy, these are at best mitigating factors only.” “Meantime the bias for RMB may be skewed towards further weakening (notwithstanding some short-term technical correction). Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI shows signs of turning from near-overbought conditions. Corrective pullback not ruled out. Support at 7.2745 and 7.2440 (21 DMA). Resistance at 7.32, 7.3450 levels.”

12:21 USD/JPY: Must break and close below 148.65 to continue to declining – UOB Group
To continue to decline, the US Dollar (USD) must break and close below 148.65, which is acting as a significant support level now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

To continue to decline, the US Dollar (USD) must break and close below 148.65, which is acting as a significant support level now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. The next significant support level below 148.65 is at 146.95 24-HOUR VIEW: “USD plummeted to 149.06 on Monday before rebounding. Yesterday, we pointed out that ‘despite the sharp decline, downward momentum has not increased much.’ We expected USD to ‘trade in a range between 149.00 and 150.50.’ Our view was incorrect, as USD plummeted briefly to 148.63, rebounding sharply to close unchanged at 149.59. The brief drop did not result in any increase in momentum, and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range, probably between 148.80 and 150.30.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We shifted our outlook to negative late last week. Tracking the subsequent decline, we indicated yesterday (03 Dec, spot at 149.85) that USD ‘may continue to decline, but given that downward momentum has not increased much further, it is unclear if there is enough momentum for it to reach 148.65.’ USD subsequently dropped briefly to 148.63, rebounding to close unchanged at 149.59. There is still no clear increase in momentum, and for USD to continue to decline, it must break and close below 148.65, which is acting as a significant support level now. On the upside, should USD break above 150.80 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 151.30), it would indicate that the weakness in USD has stabilised. Looking ahead, the next significant support level below 148.65 is at 146.95.”

12:17 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Ascending Triangle breakout keep upside trend afloat
The USD/CAD pair extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Wednesday.

12:14 USD/JPY: Bearish momentum on daily chart intact – OCBC
USD/JPY traded a low of 148.65 overnight on safe-haven demand, and was last seen at 150.73 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY traded a low of 148.65 overnight on safe-haven demand, and was last seen at 150.73 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Rebound risks not ruled out near term “Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI shows signs of turning higher from near oversold conditions. Rebound risks not ruled out in the near term. Resistance at 151.20, 152 (200 DMA), 153.30/70 levels (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low, 21DMA). Support at 149.50, 148.90 levels (100 DMA). Broader bias remains to lean against strength.” “Price-related data (Tokyo CPI, PPI, etc.), labour market development (jobless rate easing, job-to-applicant ratio increasing, etc.), wage growth expectations (PM Ishiba and trade unions calling for another 5-6% wage increase at shunto wage negotiations for 2025) and Ueda's recent comments on Nikkei over the weekend continue to reinforce the view that Bo J is likely to proceed with another hike, sooner rather than later.” “But near term, pair may consolidate for now in light of US data risks this Fri.”

12:09 NZD/USD: Momentum indicators are mostly flat – UOB Group
Momentum indicators are mostly flat; the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5860/0.5900 range.

Momentum indicators are mostly flat; the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5860/0.5900 range. In the longer run, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5840 and 0.5950, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. NZD to trade in a range between 0.5840 and 0.5950 24-HOUR VIEW: “We stated yesterday that NZD ‘is under mild downward pressure.’ While we expected it to edge lower, we were of the view that ‘any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 0.5840.’ However, instead of edging lower, NZD traded quietly between 0.5865 and 0.5905. NZD closed modestly lower by 0.10% at 0.5882. Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5860/0.5900 range today.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (28 Nov, spot at 0.5895), wherein ‘the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase.’ We expected NZD to “trade between 0.5840 and 0.5950.” There is no change in our view.”

12:07 CZK: CNB governor to repeat usual hawkish message – ING
In the Czech Republic, the government yesterday approved the state budget for next year, as expected, which we estimate should lead to a public deficit of 1.9% from this year's 2.4% of GDP, ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes.

In the Czech Republic, the government yesterday approved the state budget for next year, as expected, which we estimate should lead to a public deficit of 1.9% from this year's 2.4% of GDP, ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes. Current levels in the 25.150-200 range seem “Third quarter wage data will be released today, which we estimate rose by 4.0% YoY in real terms, similar to the previous quarter. The central bank forecast 3.6% in November. Speaking of the Czech National Bank, the governor is also scheduled to speak at a local conference today, which could give us a hint on the December decision, which remains unclear. However, we usually get a hawkish message from the governor, which could again support the CZK.” “EUR/CZK quickly broke below 25.200, a level we have mentioned here in previous days, and current levels in the 25.150-200 range seem fair to us. If the governor makes it clear today that a pause in December is the more likely scenario, EUR/CZK could test 25.100. Similar to PLN, we see tactical gains here but more weakness later due to geopolitical reasons.”

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.4%) in October
Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.4%) in October

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-3.3%) in October: Actual (-3.2%)
Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-3.3%) in October: Actual (-3.2%)

11:53 Pound Sterling briefly drops as BoE Bailey says he sees four interest rate cuts in 2025
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces selling pressure against all its major peers on Wednesday after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey forecasted four interest-rate cuts in 2025 in an interview with Financial Times (FT).

11:36 EUR/USD: No confidence motion in France – OCBC
The Euro (EUR) traded a subdued range, waffling around 1.05 levels.

The Euro (EUR) traded a subdued range, waffling around 1.05 levels. Pair was last at 1.0492, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Political uncertainties may continue to drag on EUR “French’s minority government faces a real risk of falling apart after far-right and left-wing parties submitted no-confidence motions. Debate is expected to start 4pm local time (11pm SGT) and the voting will commence shortly thereafter. No-confidence motion requires more than half of the lower house votes (i.e. 288 votes) to succeed. No single party or bloc has sufficient votes to pass a no-confidence motion on its own. In the event of a successful no-confidence vote, PM Barnier and cabinet will likely have to resign and the government goes into caretaker mode (to be appointed by President Macron). No legislative elections can be held until 1 year after the last elections that was held in July. In the interim, Macron will need to appoint a new Prime minister.” “Political uncertainties did not stop at France, In Germany, Chancellor Scholz is expected to call for a vote of confidence on 11 Dec and the Bundestag will vote on 16 Dec. To survive the vote, Scholz would need to receive the support of an absolute majority of 367 votes. But in the event, he fails, then Germany is likely to make way for elections on 23 Feb 2025. Far right AfD is calling for Germany to leave the European Union, the EUR and Paris climate deal as the party prepares for early elections.” “Political uncertainties may continue to drag on EUR. But given the bout of uncertainties so far, the EUR has also refused to test much lower. Price action suggests that short EUR trades may be at stretched levels. A flush out of stale EUR shorts cannot be ruled out and that can come of any upside data surprise out of Europe or downside surprise in US data. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI is flat. Sideways trade likely. Support at 1.0450 levels before 1.0330. Resistance at 1.0570 (21 DMA), 1.0610 and 1.0670 (38.2% fibo retracement of Oct high to Nov low).”

11:34 Mexican Peso trades flat after gaining on strong jobs data
The Mexican Peso (MXN) mostly trades flat in its key pairs on Wednesday after strengthening on the previous day, buoyed by lower-than-expected unemployment data from Mexico.

11:30 OECD raises 2025 global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.2%, warns of protectionism risks
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned of increasing growth risks from rising trade tensions and protectionism even after raising the global growth outlook for the next year.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned of increasing growth risks from rising trade tensions and protectionism even after raising the global growth outlook for the next year. Key takeaways Sees 2024 global growth at 3.2% (unchanged), sees 3.3% in 2025 and 2026 (2025 raised from 3.2% previously). Raises 2024 US growth forecast to 2.8% (2.6% previously), raises 2025 to 2.4% (from 1.6%) sees 2026 at 2.1%. Sees the Japanese economy contracting 0.3% in 2024 (-0.1% previously), rebounding to 1.5% in 2025 (1.4% previously), sees 2026 at 0.6%. Sees 2024 Chinese growth at 4.9% (unchanged), 2025 at 4.7% (4.5% previously) and 2026 at 4.4%. Sees Eurozone growth at 0.8% in 2024 (0.7% previously), 1.3% in 2025 (unchanged) and 1.5% in 2026. Sees US Fed cutting rates to 3.25-3.50% by q1 2026, ECB seen cutting to 2.0% by end 2025, the BoJ seen raising to 1.5% by end 2026. Trims 2024 UK growth to 0.9% (1.1% previously), raises 2025 to 1.7% (1.2% previously), sees 1.3% in 2026.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI came in at 50.5, above expectations (49.9) in November
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI came in at 50.5, above expectations (49.9) in November

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI above expectations (50) in November: Actual (50.8)
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI above expectations (50) in November: Actual (50.8)

11:23 USD: Rates, liquidity and geopolitics keep dollar supported – ING
Yesterday's news of the brief imposition of martial law in South Korea came as a shock.

Yesterday's news of the brief imposition of martial law in South Korea came as a shock. Korean currency and asset markets play a significant role in the investment universe, where the Korean won is the 12th most traded currency in the world (BIS 2022) and its government bonds make up 9-10% of emerging market local currency bond indices. Indeed, Korea recently celebrated its inclusion into the FTSE Russell's World Government Bond Index. Global investors will therefore be closely monitoring developments in Korea over the coming days, ING’s FX analysts Chirs Turner notes. DXY to find good buying interest under 106.00 “USD strength is not entirely being led by the second coming of Donald Trump. A lame duck government in Germany and potentially France too today if a no-confidence vote is successful, plus this Korean news, will only add to confidence that the relatively high rates (USD one-week deposit rates at 4.6%) and liquidity make the dollar the most compelling currency in which to park cash balances right now. Yes, there is the risk that US macro data softens a little and can drag the dollar a little softer, but taking defensive positions in something like the Japanese yen (deposit rate at 0.11%) or Swiss franc (0.86%) can be expensive.” “In focus for the US today is ADP employment data (1415CET) and ISM Services (16CET). The ADP number has been discredited this year, but the ISM services number occasionally moves markets. There seems no reason to see a sharp fall here and actually the JOLTS job opening data we discussed yesterday came in better than expected.” “Perhaps more interesting today will be Fed communication. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks in a moderated New York Times discussion at 1940CET. And the Fed's Beige Book is released at 2000CET. Both can provide a little colour ahead of the FOMC meeting on 18 December, where the Fed looks minded to ease policy. A 25bp cut is not fully priced and softer short-dated US rates could drag the dollar a little softer. Yet there are plenty of reasons to suspect the Dollar Index will find good buying interest under 106.00.”

11:21 USD: Rates, liquidity and geopolitics keep dollar supported – ING
Yesterday's news of the brief imposition of martial law in South Korea came as a shock.

11:10 EUR: Bearish consolidation – ING
Having fallen nearly 8% between late September and mid-November, it is no surprise to see EUR/USD undergoing some consolidation.

Having fallen nearly 8% between late September and mid-November, it is no surprise to see EUR/USD undergoing some consolidation. Be it European political risk, weak activity, the threat of trade wars or energy prices creeping higher (EU gas inventories are starting to come under pressure) there are many reasons to be underweight in the euro, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes. EUR/USD to be capped around the 1.0550 area “We do have ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking at the EU parliament at 1430CET. We doubt she will shed much light on whether the ECB will cut rates by 25bp or 50bp on 12 December, although 25bp looks much more likely at the moment.” “Our bias would be for EUR/USD to be capped around the 1.0550 area and it would be no surprise if EUR/USD dropped back towards 1.0400 over the coming days – unless Friday's US NFP data dramatically disappoints consensus of +200/220k.” “Elsewhere, we have Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking at a Financial Times event at 1000CET today. He occasionally errs into dovish territory but probably does not have the ammunition to do that today. Still, there are downside risks to GBP/USD from the speech – perhaps taking the pair to 1.2590/2620 on the day.”

11:06 Bailey speech: Expect four UK rate cuts next year as inflation eases
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoke in a pre-recorded interview at the Global Boardroom Digital Conference hosted by the Financial Times (FT) on Wednesday.

11:02 DXY: To consolidate intra-day – OCBC
The US Dollar (USD) traded little changed as markets mulled political risks in France and Korea.

The US Dollar (USD) traded little changed as markets mulled political risks in France and Korea. DXY was last at 106.51, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Consolidation likely intra-day “US data remains the key focus this week – ISM services (Wed); initial jobless claims (Thu); payrolls (Fri). There is a good chance Nov NFP rebound sharply after hurricanes and major strikes may have distorted Oct NFP. Consensus is looking for +218k print while 6m average is at 131k. We caution that a lower print could see USD bears return.” “Daily momentum is mild bearish though RSI is flat. Consolidation likely intra-day. Key support at 106.20 (21 DMA) if broken may see bearish momentum gather traction. Next support at 105.40 levels (38.2% fibo), 104.00/40 (50, 200 DMAs). Resistance at 106.50, 107.20.”

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.5 above expectations (49.2) in November
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.5 above expectations (49.2) in November

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.1) in November: Actual (48.3)
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.1) in November: Actual (48.3)

10:59 USD/JPY clings to intraday gains around mid-150.00s ahead of Fed’s Powell
The USD/JPY pair builds on the overnight bounce from the 148.65 area, or its lowest level since October 11 and gains strong follow-through traction on Wednesday.

10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.3 below forecasts (49.4) in November
Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.3 below forecasts (49.4) in November

10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 47.2, below expectations (47.3) in November
Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 47.2, below expectations (47.3) in November

10:53 GBP/USD: Outlook for GBP has turned neutral – UOB Group
There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum; the Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a 1.2630/1.2705 range.

There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum; the Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a 1.2630/1.2705 range. In the longer run, outlook for GBP has turned neutral; it is likely to trade between 1.2580 and 1.2750, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. Likely to trade between 1.2580 and 1.2750 24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, GBP fell sharply to 1.2619 before rebounding. Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘the sharp drop seems overdone.’ We also highlighted that ‘instead of weakening, GBP is more likely to trade in a 1.2620/1.2710 range.’ GBP then traded in a narrower range than expected, between 1.2638 and 1.2700, closing at 1.2673, slightly higher by 0.12%. There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum. Today, we continue to expect range trading, probably between 1.2630 and 1.2705.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (03 Dec), when GBP was at 1.2660, we revised our outlook from positive to neutral. We indicated that GBP ‘is likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.2580 and 1.2750.’ We continue to hold the same view.”

10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (44.8) in November: Actual (45.9)
France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (44.8) in November: Actual (45.9)

10:50 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 46.9, above expectations (45.7) in November
France HCOB Services PMI came in at 46.9, above expectations (45.7) in November

10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.2, below expectations (51.6) in November
Italy HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.2, below expectations (51.6) in November

10:39 USD/KRW: Retracement may find support – OCBC
USD/KRW saw a sharp run up towards 1444 after President Yoon surprisingly declared martial law.

USD/KRW saw a sharp run up towards 1444 after President Yoon surprisingly declared martial law. USD/KRW was last at 1413.65 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Pair may retrace in the interim “The pair subsequently fell after martial law was rescinded (all in the same night). Domestic political uncertainty is the main issue as opposition leaders are now calling for President Yoon to resign or face impeachment. Political uncertainty at home may temporarily weigh on KRW and should fade once we get more clarity.” “That said, Korea economy is facing a double whammy of sluggish domestic activity and slowing exports. KRW is typically a highly sensitive currency to market developments. The threat of US tariffs, fears of Fed slowing rate cut cycle, RMB trading weaker, alongside domestic political uncertainties may continue to weigh on KRW.” “Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI turned lower from overbought conditions. Pair may retrace in the interim. Support at 1410, 1400 (21DMA) and 1385 levels. Resistance at 1425, 1445 levels.”

10:36 EUR/USD: Expected to continue to trade in a range – UOB Group
The Euro (EUR) is expected to continue to trade in a range, most likely between 1.0480 and 1.0535.

The Euro (EUR) is expected to continue to trade in a range, most likely between 1.0480 and 1.0535. In the longer run, instead of a rebound, EUR is expected to trade in a range for now, most likely between 1.0430 and 1.0580, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. EUR is expected to trade between 1.0430 and 1.0580 24-HOUR VIEW: “Following EUR sharp drop to 1.0459 on Monday, we highlighted yesterday (Tuesday) that ‘deeply oversold conditions and slowing momentum indicate that EUR is unlikely to weaken further.’ We expected EUR to ‘trade in a 1.0470/1.0540 range.’ Although our view of range trading was correct, EUR traded in a narrower range than expected (1.0479/1.0535), closing slightly higher at 1.0509 (+0.11%). The relatively quiet price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.0480 and 1.0535.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted yesterday (03 Dec, spot at 1.0500) that “instead of a rebound, EUR is expected to trade in a range for now, most likely between 1.0430 and 1.0580.” EUR then traded in a relatively quiet manner, and our view remains unchanged.”

10:30 ADP report expected to show US private sector job growth cooled in November
The ADP Employment Change report is seen showing a deceleration of job creation in the US private sector in November.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The ADP Employment Change report is seen showing a deceleration of job creation in the US private sector in November.The ADP report could anticipate the more relevant Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.The US Dollar looks to extend its positive start to the week. The ADP Research Institute is set to publish its monthly update on private-sector job growth for November on Wednesday. Known as the ADP Employment Change report, it’s expected to show that US employers added 150K jobs last month, down from 233K in October.Typically released two days before the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the ADP data is often viewed as an early preview of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report. However, the connection between the two has proven to be somewhat inconsistent over time. For example, while ADP showed a 233K gain in October, the official number reported by the BLS was a meager 12K. Employment growth and its role in shaping Fed policy US employment data has taken centre stage in determining monetary policy decisions since the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chief Jerome Powell and other rate setters suggested that inflation has been convincingly trending towards the central bank’s 2.0% target. The Fed has been walking a tightrope in the post-pandemic economy, striving to balance its dual mandate: maximum employment and price stability. Faced with soaring inflation in 2022, the Fed responded by hiking interest rates to historic highs in a bid to cool the economy and bring prices under control. The labour market played a crucial role in this equation. Tight job conditions risked adding more fuel to the inflation fire, but recent months have seen signs of a healthier economic balance. This shift allowed the Fed to adjust its strategy. At its September meeting, it surprised markets with a 50 basis-point (bps) rate cut and hinted that more reductions could be on the horizon. True to this guidance, the Fed implemented an additional 25 bps rate cut at its November 7 meeting. Following this move, Chair Powell emphasised that the Fed is in no rush to continue cutting rates, signalling a potential pause in December. This hawkish shift led to a significant reduction in market expectations for further cuts at the December 18 gathering. Fed officials, including Powell, have repeatedly described the US economy as being “in a good place.” The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows a more than 75% chance of a quarter-point rate cut later this month. However, upcoming employment data could influence these odds. A stronger-than-expected ADP Employment Change report might support the case for holding rates steady, bolstering the US Dollar (USD) by maintaining the Fed’s restrictive stance. Conversely, a weaker report could revive speculation about another rate cut, potentially challenging the Greenback’s recent strength. Even so, any reaction to the ADP report may be fleeting. Investors are likely to wait for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which traditionally provides a more comprehensive view of the labour market, before making significant moves. When will the ADP Report be released, and how could it affect the USD Index? The ADP Employment Change report for November will be released on Wednesday at 13:15 GMT. It’s expected to show that the US private sector added 150K new jobs during the month. As markets await the report, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is looking to consolidate a very auspicious start to the week, bouncing off last week’s lows near 105.60 and briefly reclaiming the 106.70 region so far. From a technical perspective, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, says: “The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its steady climb, with the next major target being the recent cycle high just above the 108.00 level on November 22. Beyond that, it aims for the November 2022 top of 113.14 (November 3)”. “On the downside, any pullback would first encounter support at the weekly low of 105.61 (November 29), seconded by the critical 200-day SMA, currently at 104.04, and the November low of 103.37 (November 5). Further declines could test the 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 103.95 and 103.29, respectively. A deeper retreat might even bring the index closer to its 2024 bottom of 100.15, recorded on September 27”, Pablo adds. Finally, Pablo concludes: “The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart hovers around the 58 region and points upwards. At the same time, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has lost some momentum, receding below 44 but still indicative of a solid uptrend”. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation. Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Dec 04, 2024 13:15 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 150KPrevious: 233KSource: ADP Research Institute Why it matters to traders? Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

10:22 South Korea: Political turmoil continues after martial law U-turn – UOB Group
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol sent shockwaves across markets after he declared an emergency martial law at around 11 pm local time on Tue night (3 Dec), only to lift it six hours later following a parliamentary vote where 190 of 300 lawmakers demanded the lifting of the martial law.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol sent shockwaves across markets after he declared an emergency martial law at around 11 pm local time on Tue night (3 Dec), only to lift it six hours later following a parliamentary vote where 190 of 300 lawmakers demanded the lifting of the martial law. Under South Korean law, the government must lift martial law if a majority in parliament demands it in a vote, UOB Group’s FX analysts Ho Woei Chen and Peter Chia note. Political miscalculation likely to bring early end to President Yoon’s term “South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol sent shockwaves across markets after he declared an emergency martial law at around 11 pm local time on Tue night (3 Dec), only to lift it six hours later. South Korea financial authorities’ pledge to ‘inject unlimited liquidity’ is expected to stabilize markets.” “Next to watch will be the political consequences on President Yoon. Impeachment proceedings could follow soon after, bringing an early end to his term originally set to end in May 2027. A general election will likely be held in early 2025 following the impeachment.” “Given the political uncertainties, the BOK could deliver the next 25 bps cut as soon as its Jan meeting (16 Jan). While the currency has since pared most of the losses, USD/KRW is likely to stay above 1,400 in the near term, reflecting the political uncertainties. At the same time, BOK’s pledge may help reduce KRW’s downside. Overall, we reiterate the view that USD/KRW will trade higher across most part of 2025.”

10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (53.8) in November: Actual (53.1)
Spain HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (53.8) in November: Actual (53.1)

10:09 ECB’s Rehn: I see policy easing continuing in the coming months
“I see policy easing continuing in the coming months,” European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Wednesday.

10:08 Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) fell from previous 0.3% to -0.1% in 3Q
Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) fell from previous 0.3% to -0.1% in 3Q

10:00 EUR/USD ticks higher as traders brace for volatility ahead of French no-confidence vote
EUR/USD edges higher and holds the key support of 1.0500 in European trading hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD gains slightly with investors focusing on political jitters in France as the no-confidence vote against the prime minister looms. ECB Holzmann supports a 25 bps interest rate cut in a policy meeting on December 12.Investors will also focus on US private employment and Services PMI data for November.EUR/USD edges higher and holds the key support of 1.0500 in European trading hours on Wednesday. The major currency pair is broadly sideways as investors await the no-confidence motion by French far-right and left-wing parties against Prime Minister Michel Barnier. The vote has bolstered political uncertainty in the Eurozone’s second-largest nation due to the increasing chances that the French government will collapse, hurting the Euro (EUR). Looking at the economic calendar, investors will also focus on the United States (US) ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November, which will be published in the North American session. Economists expect the US private sector to have added fresh 150K jobs in November, significantly lower than 233K in October. In the same period, the Services PMI – which gauges activity in the services sector – is estimated to decline to 55.5 from the prior release of 56.0, suggesting a slowdown in growth. The economic data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in its monetary policy meeting on December 18. There is a 74% chance that the Fed will reduce its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% and a 26% probability of rates being unchanged at the current levels, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In Wednesday’s session, investors will also focus on the Fed’s Beige Book and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for fresh interest rate guidance. Meanwhile, a string of Fed officials have recently said that they see more interest rate cuts as appropriate as inflation continues to cool down. “I expect it will be appropriate to continue to move to a more neutral policy setting over time,” New York Fed President John Williams said on Monday. However, Williams didn’t provide any target for the Federal Funds Rate and said that the path would be data-dependent. Ahead of the private sector employment and the service sector activity data, the US Dollar (USD) exhibits a muted trend. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, wobbles around 106.30. The outlook of the US Dollar remains broadly positive as US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS. “The idea that the BRICS countries are trying to move away from the dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote in a social media post over the weekend. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD could remain edgy ahead of French no-confidence vote The French no-confidence debate is set to start at 15:00 GMT, and voting should happen around three hours later. Since Marine Le Pen announced on Monday that her party would vote to bring down the government, it would now require someone in the left-wing parties to shift position in order for Prime Minister Barnier to win the vote and avoid the fallout of the government. EUR/USD gains slightly as the US Dollar ticks down. Meanwhile, the outlook of the Euro (EUR) remains weak as European Central Bank (ECB) officials support more interest rate cuts. Traders expect the ECB to cut its key borrowing rates again in its monetary policy meeting on December 12 but are mixed about the likely interest-rate cut size. ECB policymaker and Governor of Austrian Central Bank Robert Holzmann said in an interview with Oberoesterreichische Nachrichten newspaper on Tuesday: “As the data currently stands, I think a reduction of 0.25 percentage points is conceivable, not more.” When asked about his views on the Eurozone’s inflation outlook, Holzmann said he sees risks to inflation skewed on the upside due to Trump’s tariffs policies. However, the extent of the effect will be based on how he will implement polcies. On the contrary, ECB board member Piero Cipollone said on Tuesday that US tariffs would weaken the economy, which translates into lower consumption and thus reduced pressure on prices. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD consolidates around 1.0500EUR/USD trades in a tight range near 1.0500 in Wednesday’s European session. The outlook of the major currency pair remains bearish as all short-to-long-term day EMAs are declining, pointing to a downside trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains close to 40.00, suggesting that the bearish momentum has faded. However, the bearish trend has not been extinguished. Looking down, the November 22 low of 1.0330 will be a key support for Euro bulls. On the flip side, the 50-day EMA near 1.0750 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:18 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Remains constructive above 0.8850, eyes on Fed’s Powell speech
The USD/CHF pair flat lines around 0.8860 on Wednesday during the early European trading hours.

09:17 Forex Today: US Dollar stabilizes as focus shifts to key data releases, central bank speak
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, December 4: The action in foreign exchange markets remain choppy early Wednesday as investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of key events.

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Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will be delivering speeches later in the day. The US economic calendar will feature ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data for November. Following Monday's rebound, the US Dollar (USD) Index lost its momentum and registered small losses on Tuesday. The index fluctuates in a tight range below 106.50 early Wednesday, while US stock index futures trade in positive territory. Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit, starting at 18:45 GMT. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.59% 0.38% 0.32% 0.54% 1.10% 1.12% 0.65% EUR -0.59% -0.25% -0.24% -0.05% 0.60% 0.53% 0.07% GBP -0.38% 0.25% -0.02% 0.21% 0.86% 0.79% 0.30% JPY -0.32% 0.24% 0.02% 0.20% 0.81% 0.82% 0.26% CAD -0.54% 0.05% -0.21% -0.20% 0.72% 0.58% 0.09% AUD -1.10% -0.60% -0.86% -0.81% -0.72% -0.07% -0.55% NZD -1.12% -0.53% -0.79% -0.82% -0.58% 0.07% -0.46% CHF -0.65% -0.07% -0.30% -0.26% -0.09% 0.55% 0.46% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Following news of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeo declaring martial law, USD/KRW surged to its highest level in two years above 1,440 during the American trading hours on Tuesday. In the Asian session on Wednesday, the Bank of Korea said that it will deploy various measures to stabilize the Korean Won exchange rate. Additionally, South Korea’s Parliament stepped in hours after President Yoon Suk Yeol’s announcement to soundly reject the martial law call and opposition parties submitted an impeachment bill against the president. Following these developments, USD/KRW staged a deep correction and was last seen losing 0.6% on the day at around 1,409.EUR/USD struggled to gather bullish momentum and posted small gains on Tuesday. The pair holds its ground in the European morning on Wednesday and trades above 1.0500. ECB President Lagarde will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium, starting at 13:30 GMT.GBP/USD closed with small gains on Tuesday and continued to edge higher toward 1.2700 early Wednesday. BoE Governor Bailey's pre-recorded keynote interview at the Financial Times Live Global Boardroom will be released at 09:00 GMT. The data from Australia showed on Wednesday that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 0.8% in the third quarter. This reading followed the 1% growth recorded in the second quarter and missed the market expectation of 1.1%. AUD/USD turned south following the disappointing data and dropped to its weakest level since early August near 0.6400. The pair stages a correction in the European morning and trades near 0.6450. After closing the second consecutive day virtually unchanged on Tuesday, USD/JPY gains traction and trades in positive territory above 150.00 early Wednesday.Gold failed to make a decisive move in either direction and closed virtually unchanged on Tuesday. XAU/USD extends its sideways grind below $2,650 in the European morning on Wednesday. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

08:14 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bearish bias remains unchanged below 1.2700
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory for the second consecutive day around 1.2690 during the early European session on Wednesday.

08:12 South Korean opposition parties submit impeachment bill against President Yoon, KRW rebounds
Reuters is carrying a story on Wednesday, citing that South Korean opposition parties submitted an impeachment bill against President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Reuters is carrying a story on Wednesday, citing that South Korean opposition parties submitted an impeachment bill against President Yoon Suk Yeol. The vote on the impeachment bill could take place either on December 6 or 7.

08:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI rose from previous 51.6 to 53.2 in November
Russia S&P Global Services PMI rose from previous 51.6 to 53.2 in November

07:51 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Recovers after intraday slump to sub-96.00 levels, bearish bias remains
The AUD/JPY cross dropped to its lowest level since September 18 during the Asian session on Wednesday as softer Australian GDP print lifted bets for an early interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

07:27 FX option expiries for Dec 4 NY cut
FX option expiries for Dec 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Dec 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0400 1.8b 1.0450 830m 1.0525 1.9b 1.0700 1b GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2500 550m 1.2600 424m USD/JPY: USD amounts 150.00 452m 151.25 533m 151.51 402m USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8800 595m 0.8900 509m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6450 1.3b 0.6500 1.3b 0.6550 650m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3900 767m NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.5710 658m EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8320 446m 0.8410 428m

07:16 India HSBC Composite PMI dipped from previous 59.5 to 58.6 in November
India HSBC Composite PMI dipped from previous 59.5 to 58.6 in November

07:16 India HSBC Services PMI came in at 58.4 below forecasts (59.5) in November
India HSBC Services PMI came in at 58.4 below forecasts (59.5) in November

06:47 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 7,206.19 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 7,193.10 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold increased to INR 84,050.36 per tola from INR 83,898.89 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 7,206.19 10 Grams 72,060.30 Tola 84,050.36 Troy Ounce 224,134.50 FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold Price Forecast: XAU/USD awaits Fed Chair Powell’s speech for a fresh directional impetus Gold price remains confined in a familiar range; looks to Fed’s Powell for fresh impetus Gold price climbs despite high US yields, eyes on ADP dataGold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:46 NZD/USD rebounds slightly from one-week low, still deep in the red around mid-0.5800s
The NZD/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's good two-way price move and drops to a one-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday.

06:19 ECB’s Holzmann: 25 bps rate cut is conceivable in December, not more.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said on Wednesday that a “25 basis points (bps) rate cut is conceivable in December, not more.” Additional quotes Nothing decided on next rate move, will depend on data available at December meeting.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said on Wednesday that a “25 basis points (bps) rate cut is conceivable in December, not more.” Additional quotes Nothing decided on next rate move, will depend on data available at December meeting. Trump is casting a shadow over inflation in Europe, will probably drive up inflation forecast.

06:10 Gold price remains confined in a familiar range; looks to Fed’s Powell for fresh impetus
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its consolidative price move on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow range below the $2,650 level during the Asian session.

05:45 USD/INR holds steady as traders await Indian Services PMI release
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades on a flat note on Wednesday after reaching its all-time low in the previous session.

04:27 USD/CAD consolidates near weekly high, around 1.4070 as traders await Powell’s speech
The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a range, around the 1.4070 area during the Asian session on Wednesday.

04:18 RBNZ Orr: Changes to capital rules will not increase competition among banks
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr said early Wednesday that “changes to capital rules will not increase competition among banks.” He did not comment on monetary policy or economic outlook.

04:04 Bank of Korea: Deploy measures to stabilize FX market as needed, USD/KRW defends 1,400
Bank of Korea (BoK), the South Korean central bank, said on Wednesday that it will “deploy various measures to stabilize the FX market as needed.

Bank of Korea (BoK), the South Korean central bank, said on Wednesday that it will “deploy various measures to stabilize the FX market as needed.Additional takeawaysWill increase short-term liquidity measures starting Wednesday. Will loosen collateral policies in repo operation to ease any bond market jitters. Make any special loans available to inject funds into market if needed.

03:56 Australian Dollar seems vulnerable after weaker domestic GDP and China's Services PMI
The Australian Dollar (AUD) moves lower in reaction to weaker domestic Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures.

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Given that the headline inflation in Australia has fallen to the central bank's 2%-3% target range, slower growth could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to respond with lower interest rates. Furthermore, new US export curbs on China, concerns about China's fragile economic recovery and US President-elect Donald Trump's impending tariffs turn out to be another factor weighing on the China-proxy Aussie. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to be underpinned by expectations for a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed), though bulls opt to wait for more cues about the future rate-cut path. This, in turn, assists the AUD/USD pair to hold above the weekly low and a multi-month trough touched last Tuesday. Traders might also opt to move to wait for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later today. Apart from this, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report should influence the interest rate outlook in the US and provide a fresh directional impetus. Australian Dollar drifts lower as weak GDP print lifts chances for an early RBA rate cut The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported this Wednesday that the economy expanded by 0.3% in the third quarter and by 0.8% on a yearly basis, missing estimates for a reading of 0.4% and 1.1%, respectively. Commenting on the critical economic report, Australia's Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that the national accounts show positive but weak GDP growth and that it is encouraging to see growth in real disposable incomes. According to the latest data published by Caixin on Wednesday, China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 51.5 in November from 52.0 in October. The US announced a new set of export controls to curb China's technological advancements and restricted the sale of crucial semiconductor-manufacturing equipment and high-bandwidth computer memory to the country. This comes after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened a 100% tariff on BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – if they undermine the US Dollar by creating or backing alternative currencies. The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data published on Tuesday showed that the number of job openings on the last business day of October stood at 7.74 million, up from 7.37 million in the prior month. The data eases fears of a significant slowdown in the US labor market and might force the Federal Reserve to take a cautious stance on cutting rates amid expectations that Trump's expansionary policies will boost inflation. The US Treasury bond yields shot up in reaction to the upbeat data, though failed to impress the US Dollar bulls as the markets are still pricing in a greater chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs again in December. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the US economy is in a really good place, while the labor market is in balance and is not a source of inflation. Daly added that the December rate cut is not off the table. Board of Governors member Adrianna Kugler reiterated that the progress on inflation is still underway, while the policy is not on a preset course and that the central bank will make decisions meeting by meeting. Adding to this, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that rates remain in restrictive policy and need to come down a fair amount from where they are now over the next year if inflation gets close to the target. The market attention now shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, which, along with the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, should guide policymakers on their next monetary policy decision. AUD/USD bears await a breakdown below short-term trading range support near 0.6440-0.6435From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action over the past two weeks or so might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the fall from the September monthly swing high. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside and supports prospects for a further depreciating move. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 0.6440-0.6435 region, or the multi-month low, before placing fresh bets. Spot prices might then turn vulnerable to weaken further below the 0.6400 mark and retest the year-to-date low, around the 0.6350-0.6345 region touched in August. On the flip side, any meaningful recovery back above the 0.6500 psychological mark is likely to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the 0.6535-0.6540 supply zone. A sustained strength beyond, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and allow the AUD/USD pair to reclaim the 0.6600 round figure en route to the 0.6625-0.6630 confluence hurdle. The latter comprises the 200- and the 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which if cleared decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders and pave the way for additional gains. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (YoY) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Australia during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Australian economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Dec 04, 2024 00:30 Frequency: QuarterlyActual: 0.8%Consensus: 1.1%Previous: 1%Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a quarterly basis. It is published about 65 days after the quarter ends. The indicator is closely watched, as it paints an important picture for the economy. A strong labor market, rising wages and rising private capital expenditure data are critical for the country’s improved economic performance, which in turn impacts the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision and the Australian dollar. Actual figures beating estimates is considered AUD bullish, as it could prompt the RBA to tighten its monetary policy.

03:46 China’s Caixin Services PMI drops to 51.5 to in November vs. 52.5 expected
China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 51.5 in November from 52.0 in October, according to the latest data published by Caixin on Wednesday.

China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 51.5 in November from 52.0 in October, according to the latest data published by Caixin on Wednesday. The data came in below the market expectations of 52.5 in the reported period.

03:45 China Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.5 below forecasts (52.5) in November
China Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.5 below forecasts (52.5) in November

03:44 Australian Treasurer Chalmers sees positive but weak GDP growth in today's national accounts
Australia Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Wednesday that the national accounts show positive but weak Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

03:24 Fed's Goolsbee: Rates need to come down a fair amount over next year
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday said he sees interest rates needing to come down a "fair amount" over the next year as rates remain in restrictive policy, per Reuters.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1934 vs. 7.1996 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 7.1934, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1996.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 7.1934, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1996.

03:01 Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services up to 58.3 in November from previous 53.8
Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services up to 58.3 in November from previous 53.8

02:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (1.1%) in 3Q: Actual (0.8%)
Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (1.1%) in 3Q: Actual (0.8%)

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI registered at 50.5 above expectations (50.2) in November
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI registered at 50.5 above expectations (50.2) in November

02:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (0.4%) in 3Q: Actual (0.3%)
Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (0.4%) in 3Q: Actual (0.3%)

02:19 Japanese Yen struggles to gain ground ahead of Jibun Bank Services PMI data
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades in negative territory on Wednesday.

02:12 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price: 2.9% (November) vs 1.4%
New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price: 2.9% (November) vs 1.4%

01:29 EUR/USD trapped below 1.06
EUR/USD turned lower once again on Tuesday, grappling with the 1.0500 handle as Fiber flubs a bullish run at 1.0600.

00:54 GBP/USD churns near 1.2700
GBP/USD churned chart paper just south of the 1.2700 handle on Tuesday, roiling bids as Pound Sterling traders grapple with a significant lull in meaningful UK-centric economic data and broader markets gear up for a fresh pass of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due at the end of the week.

00:44 South Korean Won: KRW stabilizes after South Korean Parliament axes martial law call
South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol declared “emergency martial law” early Tuesday in a surprise move that rattled equities with exposure to South Korean markets.

00:10 Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI rises to 50.5 in November vs. 49.6 expected
The final reading of Australia's Judo Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 50.5 in November from 49.6 in the previous reading.

00:05 United States Total Vehicle Sales registered at 16.5M above expectations (16M) in November
United States Total Vehicle Sales registered at 16.5M above expectations (16M) in November

00:02 Australia Judo Bank Services PMI came in at 50.5, above expectations (49.6) in November
Australia Judo Bank Services PMI came in at 50.5, above expectations (49.6) in November

00:02 Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI: 50.2 (November) vs 49.4
Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI: 50.2 (November) vs 49.4

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Forex News Timeline

22:07 Dow Jones Industrial Average roils on hectic Tuesday The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) churned in a tight range on Tuesday as investors grapple with mixed data and an overall headwind in non-tech stocks.

21:40 Forex Today: The US labour market remains in the spotlight The Greenback traded on the defensive for the second day in a row on Wednesday amid lower yields and the absence of news in Powell’s remarks at an event hosted by the New York Times.

20:37 US Dollar weakens after disappointing ISM and S&P Services data The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, declined toward 106.10 on Wednesday amidst slight profit-taking after steep rallies against many major G20 currencies this week.

20:01 Mexican Peso rallies following mixed US economic data The Mexican Peso registers decent gains versus the US Dollar after mixed US economic data augmented the chances that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could lower interest rates at the December meeting.

19:48 Fed’s Powell discusses monetary policy amid increasing bets for further easing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to participate in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook on Wednesday at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York.

18:14 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair sees more gains and rises to 1.0530 The EUR/USD pair found support around the psychological 1.0500 level after opening the week with a sharp decline of over 1% and tallies a two-day winning streak.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below expectations (-1M) in November 29: Actual (-5.073M) United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below expectations (-1M) in November 29: Actual (-5.073M)

17:11 Gold: Sizable liquidations over the coming week are possible – TDS Precious metals have remained locked in a tight range, but recent flows have been interesting, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

17:10 US ISM Services PMI rose less than expected in November According to the Institute for Supply Mangement (ISM), the Services PMI eased to 52.1 in November, coming in short of estimates at 55.5 and markedly lower than October’s 56 reading.

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in October United States Factory Orders (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in October

17:00 United States ISM Services New Orders Index dipped from previous 57.4 to 53.7 in November United States ISM Services New Orders Index dipped from previous 57.4 to 53.7 in November

17:00 United States ISM Services PMI registered at 52.1, below expectations (55.5) in November United States ISM Services PMI registered at 52.1, below expectations (55.5) in November

17:00 United States ISM Services Prices Paid up to 58.2 in November from previous 58.1 United States ISM Services Prices Paid up to 58.2 in November from previous 58.1

17:00 United States ISM Services Employment Index: 51.5 (November) vs previous 53 United States ISM Services Employment Index: 51.5 (November) vs previous 53

16:59 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to crack 1.2700, oscillates around 1.2650 The GBP/USD fluctuated between gains/loses, trapped at around the 1.2630-1.2700 range for the third consecutive day.

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 54.9, below expectations (55.3) in November United States S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 54.9, below expectations (55.3) in November

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 56.1 below forecasts (57) in November United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 56.1 below forecasts (57) in November

16:36 Gold price edges higher as ADP falls shorts of expectations Gold prices consolidate at around $2,650 for the seventh consecutive day, posts modest gains of over 0.20% after US jobs data revealed that private hiring dipped, missing economists forecasts.

16:06 Fed's Musalem: Will wait to see data before deciding on December meeting St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday that it might be possible to pause rate cuts at the upcoming meetings, and added that they are keeping all options for the December meeting.

15:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) below expectations (0.2%) in 3Q: Actual (-0.4%) Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) below expectations (0.2%) in 3Q: Actual (-0.4%)

15:26 EUR/GBP stays vulnerable below 0.8300 as French government sets to dissolve The EUR/GBP pair ticks lower and sustains below the cruical resistance of 0.8300 in Wednesday’s North American session.

15:15 United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (150K) in November: Actual (146K) United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (150K) in November: Actual (146K)

15:01 GBP/USD: Crawls higher from intraday low in positive, technical fashion – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) is little changed on the session, but the GBP price action is leaning a little more positive, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:57 EUR/USD: Helped by PMI revisions ahead of French conf vote – Scotiabank Final Eurozone November Composite and Services PMIs were revised up a little from the preliminary data (48.3, from 48.1 and 49.5, from 49.2 respectively).

14:53 CAD: Markets await jobs data for clues on BoC – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed. CAD is a marginal outperformer among the major currencies as a consequence, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:29 US Dollar edges up as traders shift focus to no-confidence vote in France The US Dollar (USD) edges up slightly on Wednesday as a no-confidence vote in France is set to take place.

14:01 Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) below expectations (5.9%) in October: Actual (5.8%) Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) below expectations (5.9%) in October: Actual (5.8%)

14:00 Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in October: Actual (-0.2%) Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in October: Actual (-0.2%)

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous 6.3% to 2.8% in November 29 United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous 6.3% to 2.8% in November 29

13:15 AUD/USD plunges to near 0.6400 as weak Aussie GDP boosts RBA dovish bets The AUD/USD pair dives more than 1% to near the round-level support of 0.6400 in Wednesday’s European session.

12:42 Germany 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 2.38% to 2.07% Germany 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 2.38% to 2.07%

12:31 USD/SGD: Consolidation likely in the near term – OCBC USD/SGD continued to trade near recent highs; last seen at 1.3464, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:29 USD/CNH: Momentum remains strong – UOB Group Overbought advance could retest the 7.3145 level before a more sustained pullback can be expected.

12:25 USD/CNH: PBoC may continue to restraint the RMB – OCBC USD/CNH eased as policymakers continued to keep the daily fix under 7.20.

12:21 USD/JPY: Must break and close below 148.65 to continue to declining – UOB Group To continue to decline, the US Dollar (USD) must break and close below 148.65, which is acting as a significant support level now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

12:17 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Ascending Triangle breakout keep upside trend afloat The USD/CAD pair extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Wednesday.

12:14 USD/JPY: Bearish momentum on daily chart intact – OCBC USD/JPY traded a low of 148.65 overnight on safe-haven demand, and was last seen at 150.73 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:09 NZD/USD: Momentum indicators are mostly flat – UOB Group Momentum indicators are mostly flat; the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5860/0.5900 range.

12:07 CZK: CNB governor to repeat usual hawkish message – ING In the Czech Republic, the government yesterday approved the state budget for next year, as expected, which we estimate should lead to a public deficit of 1.9% from this year's 2.4% of GDP, ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes.

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.4%) in October Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.4%) in October

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-3.3%) in October: Actual (-3.2%) Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-3.3%) in October: Actual (-3.2%)

11:36 EUR/USD: No confidence motion in France – OCBC The Euro (EUR) traded a subdued range, waffling around 1.05 levels.

11:34 Mexican Peso trades flat after gaining on strong jobs data The Mexican Peso (MXN) mostly trades flat in its key pairs on Wednesday after strengthening on the previous day, buoyed by lower-than-expected unemployment data from Mexico.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI came in at 50.5, above expectations (49.9) in November United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI came in at 50.5, above expectations (49.9) in November

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI above expectations (50) in November: Actual (50.8) United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI above expectations (50) in November: Actual (50.8)

11:23 USD: Rates, liquidity and geopolitics keep dollar supported – ING Yesterday's news of the brief imposition of martial law in South Korea came as a shock.

11:21 USD: Rates, liquidity and geopolitics keep dollar supported – ING Yesterday's news of the brief imposition of martial law in South Korea came as a shock.

11:10 EUR: Bearish consolidation – ING Having fallen nearly 8% between late September and mid-November, it is no surprise to see EUR/USD undergoing some consolidation.

11:06 Bailey speech: Expect four UK rate cuts next year as inflation eases Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoke in a pre-recorded interview at the Global Boardroom Digital Conference hosted by the Financial Times (FT) on Wednesday.

11:02 DXY: To consolidate intra-day – OCBC The US Dollar (USD) traded little changed as markets mulled political risks in France and Korea.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.5 above expectations (49.2) in November Eurozone HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.5 above expectations (49.2) in November

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.1) in November: Actual (48.3) Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (48.1) in November: Actual (48.3)

10:59 USD/JPY clings to intraday gains around mid-150.00s ahead of Fed’s Powell The USD/JPY pair builds on the overnight bounce from the 148.65 area, or its lowest level since October 11 and gains strong follow-through traction on Wednesday.

10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.3 below forecasts (49.4) in November Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.3 below forecasts (49.4) in November

10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 47.2, below expectations (47.3) in November Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 47.2, below expectations (47.3) in November

10:53 GBP/USD: Outlook for GBP has turned neutral – UOB Group There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum; the Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a 1.2630/1.2705 range.

10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (44.8) in November: Actual (45.9) France HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (44.8) in November: Actual (45.9)

10:50 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 46.9, above expectations (45.7) in November France HCOB Services PMI came in at 46.9, above expectations (45.7) in November

10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.2, below expectations (51.6) in November Italy HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.2, below expectations (51.6) in November

10:39 USD/KRW: Retracement may find support – OCBC USD/KRW saw a sharp run up towards 1444 after President Yoon surprisingly declared martial law.

10:36 EUR/USD: Expected to continue to trade in a range – UOB Group The Euro (EUR) is expected to continue to trade in a range, most likely between 1.0480 and 1.0535.

10:30 ADP report expected to show US private sector job growth cooled in November The ADP Employment Change report is seen showing a deceleration of job creation in the US private sector in November.

10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (53.8) in November: Actual (53.1) Spain HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (53.8) in November: Actual (53.1)

10:09 ECB’s Rehn: I see policy easing continuing in the coming months “I see policy easing continuing in the coming months,” European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Wednesday.

10:08 Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) fell from previous 0.3% to -0.1% in 3Q Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) fell from previous 0.3% to -0.1% in 3Q

10:00 EUR/USD ticks higher as traders brace for volatility ahead of French no-confidence vote EUR/USD edges higher and holds the key support of 1.0500 in European trading hours on Wednesday.

09:18 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Remains constructive above 0.8850, eyes on Fed’s Powell speech The USD/CHF pair flat lines around 0.8860 on Wednesday during the early European trading hours.

09:17 Forex Today: US Dollar stabilizes as focus shifts to key data releases, central bank speak Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, December 4: The action in foreign exchange markets remain choppy early Wednesday as investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of key events.

08:14 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bearish bias remains unchanged below 1.2700 The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory for the second consecutive day around 1.2690 during the early European session on Wednesday.

08:12 South Korean opposition parties submit impeachment bill against President Yoon, KRW rebounds Reuters is carrying a story on Wednesday, citing that South Korean opposition parties submitted an impeachment bill against President Yoon Suk Yeol.

08:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI rose from previous 51.6 to 53.2 in November Russia S&P Global Services PMI rose from previous 51.6 to 53.2 in November

07:27 FX option expiries for Dec 4 NY cut FX option expiries for Dec 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

07:16 India HSBC Composite PMI dipped from previous 59.5 to 58.6 in November India HSBC Composite PMI dipped from previous 59.5 to 58.6 in November

07:16 India HSBC Services PMI came in at 58.4 below forecasts (59.5) in November India HSBC Services PMI came in at 58.4 below forecasts (59.5) in November

06:47 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:46 NZD/USD rebounds slightly from one-week low, still deep in the red around mid-0.5800s The NZD/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's good two-way price move and drops to a one-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday.

06:10 Gold price remains confined in a familiar range; looks to Fed’s Powell for fresh impetus Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its consolidative price move on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow range below the $2,650 level during the Asian session.

05:45 USD/INR holds steady as traders await Indian Services PMI release The Indian Rupee (INR) trades on a flat note on Wednesday after reaching its all-time low in the previous session.