Forex News Timeline

20:01 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains afloat as fears mount
Spot Gold set a weekly low of $3,366.25 on Tuesday, bouncing from the level yet in the American session.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,383.60US President Donald Trump says patience with Iran “wearing thin.”United States data came in below expected as markets gear up for the Fed.XAU/USD trades within a well-limited range amid renewed risk aversion. Spot Gold set a weekly low of $3,366.25 on Tuesday, bouncing from the level yet in the American session. The US Dollar (USD) spent the first half of the day on the back foot, but remained within familiar levels as market players awaited United States (US) macroeconomic figures, while being cautious amid the Middle East crisis.The US published May Retail Sales, which fell by 0.9% on a monthly basis, worse than the -0.1% posted in April and the -0,7% expected. Additionally, Industrial Production in the same period was down by 0.2% against the 0.1% advance anticipated. Finally, Capacity Utilization stood at 77.4%, down from the 77.7% posted in April and missing the 77.7% expected.Additionally, trade-war-related headlines kept coming. On the one hand, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted trade talks with the US are “advancing” despite being complex, while adding the EU has a trade surplus with the US, and that could last.”Finally, it is worth adding comments from the US President about the Middle East conflict, which fueled risk-off, helping XAU/USD trim intraday losses. Trump claimed the US military has full control of the Iranian airspace, adding that US patience “is wearing thin.”Discouraging US data and renewed Middle-East-related concerns fuel demand for safety. In the meantime, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates on hold when it announces its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. US officials will also present a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), with fresh inflation, growth and employment perspectives.XAU/USD short-term technical outlook The XAU/USD pair trades in the $3,380 region, and the daily chart shows it has spent the journey confined to a tight range. The pair has lost its positive momentum, but the overall risk skews to the upside, given that technical indicators have turned flat well above their midlines. Additionally, XAU/USD develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) partially losing its bullish strength, yet holding far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, Gold price has room to ease further. The pair trades below its 20 SMA, which caps advances at around $3,406.90. The 100 and 200 SMAs remain directionless below the current level, while technical indicators grind lower within negative levels. Still, the risk-averse environment will likely prevent the pair from falling further. Support levels: 3,366.10 3,352.40 3,339.75Resistance levels: 3,406.90 3,414.60 3,437.85

19:25 US President Donald Trump: We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran
United States (US) President Donald Trump is on the wires claiming the US has control of the skies over Iran through his social media platform, Truth Social.

19:15 USD/JPY firms as BoJ holds rates, Fed decision eyed
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, as the Greenback remained firm amid lingering Middle East tensions and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) status quo policy stance.

19:07 AUD/USD tests support as focus shifts to Fed decision and RBA policy paths
The pair is falling back toward 0.6500 on Tuesday as traders digest mixed US Retail Sales data, monitor rising geopolitical tensions, and prepare for Wednesday's Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision and Summary of Economic Projections.

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However, the upside remains capped by mounting global uncertainty and concerns over Australia's weakening domestic outlook.Mixed US Retail Sales shift focus to Fed dot plot and Powell’s rate guidanceCautious sentiment dominates as markets respond to conflicting signals in the latest US Retail Sales report. Headline sales dropped 0.9% MoM in May, missing forecasts of a 0.7% decline. The GDP-relevant control group rose 0.4%, underscoring underlying consumer resilience. With the Fed expected to keep rates unchanged, the focus shifts to the updated dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's guidance on the path of rates into late 2025.AUD under pressure as RBA rate cut bets rise, fiscal constraints highlight growing policy divergenceIn Australia, attention turns to a significant fiscal speech from Treasurer Jim Chalmers, set for delivery on Wednesday at the National Press Club. According to Reuters, Chalmers will outline structural challenges, including sluggish productivity and long-term budget sustainability. Chalmers' tone may reinforce the view that fiscal support will remain limited, shifting the burden of stimulus to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets are already pricing in additional RBA easing, and if the Fed maintains a higher-for-longer stance while the RBA moves toward rate cuts, a growing policy divergence could ultimately weigh on the AUD and cap upside in the AUD/USD pair..If the Fed maintains a higher-for-longer stance while the RBA moves toward rate cuts, a growing policy divergence could ultimately weigh on the AUD and limit upside in the AUD/USD pair.AUD/USD remains in the confines of a rising wedgeThe AUD/USD pair remains confined within a rising wedge formation, with prices trading around the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6508 and below the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, located near 0.6550 (measured from the decline from September to April). The pair has edged down to 0.6511, testing the lower boundary of the wedge while holding above the key psychological support at 0.6500 and the 200-day SMA at 0.6428. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 55, indicating steady momentum without overbought conditions.AUD/USD daily chartA decisive break above 0.6550 would open the door toward the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.6722, while a downside break below 0.6500–0.6480 would expose the next major support near 0.6428, where the 50% retracement and long-term moving average converge. Dot Plot FAQs What is the Federal Reserve “Dot Plot”? The “Dot Plot” is the popular name of the interest-rate projections by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which implements monetary policy. These are published in the Summary of Economic Projections, a report in which FOMC members also release their individual projections on economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation for the current year and the next few ones. The document consists of a chart plotting interest-rate projections, with each FOMC member’s forecast represented by a dot. The Fed also adds a table summarizing the range of forecasts and the median for each indicator. This makes it easier for market participants to see how policymakers expect the US economy to perform in the near, medium and long term. When does the Federal Reserve publish the “Dot Plot”? The US Federal Reserve publishes the “Dot Plot” once every other meeting, or in four of the eight yearly scheduled meetings. The Summary of Economic Projections report is published along with the monetary policy decision. Why is the “Dot Plot” important for markets? The “Dot Plot” gives a comprehensive insight into the expectations from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. As projections reflect each official’s projection for interest rates at the end of each year, it is considered a key forward-looking indicator. By looking at the “Dot Plot” and comparing the data to current interest-rate levels, market participants can see where policymakers expect rates to head to and the overall direction of monetary policy. As projections are released quarterly, the “Dot Plot” is widely used as a guide to figure out the terminal rate and the possible timing of a policy pivot. How does data in the “Dot Plot” affect the US Dollar? The most market-moving data in the “Dot Plot” is the projection of the federal funds rate. Any change compared with previous projections is likely to influence the US Dollar (USD) valuation. Generally, if the “Dot Plot” shows that policymakers expect higher interest rates in the near term, this tends to be bullish for USD. Likewise, if projections point to lower rates ahead, the USD is likely to weaken.

18:37 EC President von der Leyen: US trade negotiations are complex but we are advancing
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday that trade talks between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are complex but added that they are advancing.

18:20 GBP/USD drops towards 1.3500 as US weighs joining Israel in Iran conflict
The GBP/USD tumbled below the 1.3500 figure for the first time in the week, down over 0.39%, as tensions in the Middle East remained high, with news sources revealing that the United States (US) is weighing whether to join Israel in its confrontation with Iran.

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At the time of writing, the pair traded at 1.3515, having previously reached daily highs of 1.3579.Sterling slumps over 0.5% amid surging US Dollar demand and growing Middle East tensionsGeopolitical risks are boosting the US dollar, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Dollar against six currencies, is up 0.31% at 98.43. On Monday, US President Donald Trump recommended Iranians in Tehran to evacuate as he exited abruptly from the G7 meeting in Canada.According to Politico, US President Donald Trump is evaluating “whether to join Israel’s bombardment of Iran.” The source revealed that “Trump has been consistent that Iran can’t have a nuclear bomb. Given the state of Iran’s air defences there are a lot of options…”In the meantime, GBP/USD traders are awaiting the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE). Both are expected to keep rates unchanged, though the interest rate differential favors the US Dollar.Data-wise, the US docket indicated that Retail Sales contracted in May due to a decline in major vehicle purchases. Sales dropped 0.9% month-over-month, which was below the forecast of 0.7%. In the twelve months leading up to May, sales rose sharply by 3.3%, down from a 5% jump in April.Industrial Production in the US dived for the second time in three months, missing forecasts of 0.1% expansion, and fell -0.2% MoM.Across the pond, the docket was empty, though there was progress in the US-UK talks in the G7. US President Donald Trump signed an agreement that lowered some tariffs on imports from Britain as both parties continued to engage toward a formal trade deal.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookWith the pair clearing 1.3500, the GBP/USD could be headed for a pullback, opening the door to challenge the May 29 swing low of 1.3414. Once decisively cleared, the next support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3365.Conversely, if GBP/USD reclaims the 20-day SMA at 1.3544, expect a test of 1.3600. A breach of the latter will expose the YTD high at 1.3631. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

18:19 ECB’s Villeroy: Should incorporate Euro appreciation into our policy decision
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Tuesday that they are in a good position on interest rate policy but noted that there is now more uncertainty following the Iran-Israel conflict.

17:47 EUR/USD edges lower traders brace for Fed verdict, Euro sentiment brightens, US data mixed
The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the EUR/USD pair treading water as traders digest a steady Greenback despite disappointing Retail Sales data and ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict.

17:08 USD/CAD steadies as traders digest mixed US Retail Sales data ahead of the Fed
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is holding its ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with USD/CAD moving sideways near 1.3575.

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While Oil prices remain elevated, supporting the CAD through its commodity link, recent US data and monetary policy signals stay front and center.Retail Sales provide mixed signals on Consumer Spending trendsThe release of US Retail Sales on Tuesday has provided a mixed picture. Headline figures declined by 0.9% in May, missing market expectations of a 0.7% decline and marking the steepest drop since early 2024. Sales excluding autos also fell by 0.3%, pointing to broad-based softness in consumer activity. However, the control group, which strips out volatile categories and feeds directly into the calculation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rose by 0.4%, indicating a strong rebound from April’s -0.1% and a sign that core consumption remains resilient. For the Federal Reserve, the report presents a mixed picture. A decline in the headline number strengthens the case for keeping rates steady and possibly easing later in the year. However, the firm control group suggests that the economy is still resilient, reducing the urgency for rate cuts. From a broader perspective, the Israel-Iran conflict is intensifying, threatening the security of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global Oil supply. Since the CAD is a commodity-linked currency, elevated Oil prices may help limit the downside for the Loonie.In the near term, traders will closely monitor Oil price fluctuations tied to Middle East developments and parse signals from the Fed on Wednesday. These intersecting forces are likely to shape the path of USD/CAD into the latter half of the week.USD/CAD technical levelsUSD/CAD remains under sustained selling pressure, trading near 1.3580 and holding just above key trendline support. Prices have continued to respect the boundaries of a descending channel, with the 10-day (1.3644), 20-day (1.3713), and 50-day (1.3819) Simple Moving Averages (SMA) sitting above the current level.The pair briefly tested the lower bound of the channel near 1.3540, but has yet to decisively break below it. A close beneath this level could open the door toward the November 2024 low of 1.3419. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 29 and is pointing higher, indicating that bullish momentum may be losing steam. If the US Dollar strengthens, this could risk a short-term consolidation or a technical rebound toward resistance at 1.3640–1.3710 in the near term.USD/CAD daily chart
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

17:00 United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0%) in April
United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0%) in April

17:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (36) in June: Actual (32)
United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (36) in June: Actual (32)

16:22 US Industrial Production contracts 0.2% in May vs. 0.1% expected
Industrial Production in the United States (US) contracted by 0.2% on a monthly basis in May, the data published by the Federal Reserve showed on Tuesday. This reading followed the 0.1% growth recorded in April and came in worse than the market expectation for an expansion of 0.1%.

Industrial Production in the US declined by 0.2% in May.The US Dollar Index holds steady at around 98.00 after the data.Industrial Production in the United States (US) contracted by 0.2% on a monthly basis in May, the data published by the Federal Reserve showed on Tuesday. This reading followed the 0.1% growth recorded in April and came in worse than the market expectation for an expansion of 0.1%.Other details of the report showed that manufacturing output rose by 0.1% in this period. Meanwhile, the Capacity Utilization declined to 77.4% from 77.7% in April. Market reactionThe US Dollar Index holds steady slightly above 98.00 after these data releases.

16:15 United States Capacity Utilization below expectations (77.7%) in May: Actual (77.4%)
United States Capacity Utilization below expectations (77.7%) in May: Actual (77.4%)

16:15 United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (0.1%) in May
United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (0.1%) in May

16:04 USD/INR strengthens toward two-month high as Oil rally and Iran-Israel tensions weigh on Rupee
The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, giving up Monday’s modest rebound as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, stronger Crude Oil prices, and a resilient Greenback dampen sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) key interest rate decision.

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However, the US Dollar eased slightly after US Retail Sales missed market expectations, dampening buying interest in the Greenback.Tensions between Iran and Israel flared further on Tuesday after Israel reportedly assassinated Iran’s wartime chief of staff, Ali Shadmani — the second senior commander killed within days. In response, Iran launched a new wave of missile and drone attacks targeting Tel Aviv and Herzliya, triggering air-raid sirens and chaos in Tehran. Adding to the sense of urgency, former US President Donald Trump called for an immediate civilian evacuation of Tehran and insisted he wants a “real end” to the conflict rather than a temporary ceasefire. The heightened geopolitical risk has fuelled risk-off flows across global markets.Market Movers: Risk-off flows, steady US Dollar, and FII outflows pressure the RupeeThe Rupee has now dropped to its weakest level in over two months, reflecting a steady downtrend so far this month. It has depreciated about 0.77% in June, widening its year-to-date decline to roughly 0.73% as persistent oil strength and global market jitters continue to weigh on the currency.According to Jateen Trivedi, Vice President and Research Analyst for Commodities and Currencies at LKP Securities, the Rupee remains vulnerable amid the escalating Middle East conflict. “Weakness in capital markets signals potential FII outflows, adding to Rupee pressure,” he noted in a report published by Business Standard.Equity markets mirrored the cautious mood. Broad-based selling dragged the BSE Sensex lower by 212.85 points to settle at 81,583.30, while the NSE Nifty shed 93.10 points to close at 24,853.40. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Monday, pulling out ₹2,539.42 crore worth of equities, according to exchange data.In commodities, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by about 2.22% to around $71.69 per barrel on Tuesday, underpinned by concerns about potential supply disruptions amid the Iran-Israel standoff. Higher oil prices typically add to India’s import bill, putting additional pressure on the Rupee and the current account balance.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, remains firm above the 98.00 mark after slipping to 97.68 on Monday on the back of weaker-than-expected factory data. The Empire State Manufacturing Index tumbled to -16.0 in June, down from -9.2 in May, falling well short of market forecasts and indicating a deeper contraction in regional factory activity.Market focus turned to fresh US Retail Sales data for May, which showed a sharper-than-expected decline of 0.9% MoM — the biggest drop in four months — following a 0.1% dip in April. The figure came in weaker than the market forecast of a 0.7% fall, suggesting that consumers pulled back on spending ahead of anticipated tariffs. Meanwhile, the Fed is still expected to keep rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Wednesday, with updated projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks likely to draw attention for any hints on the outlook.Technical Outlook: Breakout targets 87.00 as momentum buildsOn the technical front, USD/INR has broken above a symmetrical triangle formation on the 4-hour chart, hinting at a continuation of the recent bullish momentum. The pair holds well above the 21-period EMA near 86.07, supporting the near-term positive bias. Momentum indicators remain encouraging, with the RSI hovering near 66 — below overbought territory — and the MACD histogram and signal lines building further upside traction. Sustained trade above the 86.20–86.30 zone could clear the path for a move toward the psychological 87.00 handle.
Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee? The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee? India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee? Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee? India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.

16:00 United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 4.7% to 5.2% in June 13
United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 4.7% to 5.2% in June 13

15:35 US Retail Sales decline by 0.9% in May vs -0.7% expected
Retail Sales in the United States (US) declined by 0.9% in May to $715.4 billion, the US Census Bureau announced on Tuesday. This reading followed the 1.5% decrease (revised from +0.1%) recorded in April and came in worse than the market expectation for a contraction of 0.7%.

Retail Sales in the US fell more than expected in May.The USD Index stays in a tight daily range near 98.00.Retail Sales in the United States (US) declined by 0.9% in May to $715.4 billion, the US Census Bureau announced on Tuesday. This reading followed the 1.5% decrease (revised from +0.1%) recorded in April and came in worse than the market expectation for a contraction of 0.7%. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 3.3%, compared to 5% in April."Total sales for the March 2025 through May 2025 period were up 4.5% from the same period a year ago," the press release read. "Retail trade sales were down 0.9% from April 2025, and up 3.0% from last year."Other data from the US showed that Import Price Index was unchanged on a monthly basis in May, while Export Price Index was down 0.9%.Market reactionThese figures don't seem to be having a significant impact on the US Dollar's (USD) performance. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.04% on the day at 98.10.

15:31 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities fell from previous $15.63B to $4.1B in April
Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities fell from previous $15.63B to $4.1B in April

15:31 United States Import Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.1% to 0.2% in May
United States Import Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.1% to 0.2% in May

15:31 United States Import Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.2%) in May: Actual (0%)
United States Import Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.2%) in May: Actual (0%)

15:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-0.01B, above forecasts ($-2.94B) in April
Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-0.01B, above forecasts ($-2.94B) in April

15:30 United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at -0.3% below forecasts (0.1%) in May
United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at -0.3% below forecasts (0.1%) in May

15:30 United States Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 5.2% to 3.3% in May
United States Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 5.2% to 3.3% in May

15:30 United States Export Price Index (YoY) down to 1.7% in May from previous 2%
United States Export Price Index (YoY) down to 1.7% in May from previous 2%

15:30 United States Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (-0.7%) in May: Actual (-0.9%)
United States Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (-0.7%) in May: Actual (-0.9%)

15:30 United States Export Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in May: Actual (-0.9%)
United States Export Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in May: Actual (-0.9%)

15:03 JPY is remarkably quiet – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Tuesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD), having faded its marginal BoJ-driven gain following the central bank’s policy decision, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Tuesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD), having faded its marginal BoJ-driven gain following the central bank’s policy decision, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note. JPY is fading modest BoJ-driven gain "Rates were left unchanged, as expected, at 0.5% and policymakers announced a less aggressive plan for policy normalization with figures that had previously been signaled to markets – paring the pace of bond market purchase reductions from JPY400bn/quarter to JPY200bn/quarter." "The tone was neutral overall, highlighting uncertainty from trade tensions and muted underlying inflationary pressures. This week’s domestic risk continues with trade data scheduled for release following Tuesday’s NA close and national CPI figures scheduled for release later this week." "Geopolitical tensions present a major risk for JPY, given its role as a safe haven currency and its tendency to strengthen in periods of financial market turbulence."

14:58 GBP soft and underperforming in quiet trade – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a modest 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) but underperforming all of the G10 currencies in relatively quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a modest 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) but underperforming all of the G10 currencies in relatively quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.Markets are waiting for CPI Wednesday & BoE Thursday"Market participants are waiting on Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s BoE. Inflation is expected to show a softening trend while still remaining in the mid/lower-3% area on both headline and core. For the BoE, policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged while communicating a neutral/dovish bias. Markets are currently pricing one 25bpt hike by September and a cumulative 50bpts by December, adding about 5pbts of easing to the latter over the past month.""GBP/USD’s trend remains bullish, given its recent push to fresh multi-year highs above 1.36. Bullish momentum is fading somewhat, however the longer-term trend is clearly defined by the sequence of higher lows and higher highs observed following the mid-January bottom. There are no major longer-term resistance levels ahead of 1.3750. The latest range is defined by support below 1.3480 and resistance above 1.3620. "

14:54 EUR flat and ignoring stronger ZEW – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is quietly trading within an incredibly tight range, consolidating in the mid-1.15s just below its recent multi-year highs, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

Euro (EUR) is quietly trading within an incredibly tight range, consolidating in the mid-1.15s just below its recent multi-year highs, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.Geopolitical tensions present a modest downside risk for EUR"Stronger than expected ZEW investor sentiment figures were released with no meaningful reaction, and we note the absence of any major economic data releases scheduled for the remainder of the week. The ECB speaking schedule remains heavy, and President Lagarde is set to speak on Thursday." "The outlook for relative central bank policy will remain a focus as markets assess the ECB’s gradual shift to neutral and contrast it with the Fed. Geopolitical tensions present a modest downside risk for EUR, given that the EUR is a modestly pro-risk currency unlike its G4 haven peers USD and JPY.""The trend is bullish, as EUR’s latest multi-year highs have followed a clear trend of higher lows and higher highs following its February bottom. The 50 day MA (1.1343) represents an important level of medium-term support, while major resistance appears limited ahead of the 1.1680-1.1700 area. We await a break of the latest, short-term range roughly bound between 1.15 and 1.16."

14:51 EUR/GBP remains close to the 0.8545 highs with downside attempts limited
Euro buyers appeared on Monday to keep downside attempts limited at the 0.8500 area and the EUR/GBP’s immediate bullish trend intact.

14:48 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises near $3,400, remains supported by Middle East tensions
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.4% higher to near $3,400 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The yellow metal edges up as demand for safe-haven assets remains firm amid conflicts in the Middle East.

14:46 CAD holds minor gain on USD – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a mild outperformer on the session, catching a modest bid alongside the Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a mild outperformer on the session, catching a modest bid alongside the Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.Trade talks aim for quick agreement"Developments do reflect the breakdown—or reversal—in typical market behaviour since 'Liberation Day' which has seen the USD underperform in periods of equity market volatility while the CAD has outperformed. That trend may be moderating or reversing but that CAD retains a negative correlation with US stocks on our rolling 1-month study of daily returns of just over 50%.""While in Kananaskis yesterday, President Trump appeared to be on cordial terms with 'Mark'. The president suggested that while he and the PM had differing 'concepts' on trade, a deal was still possible. PM Carney later said the two sides were aiming for a deal within 30 days. If so, the recent trend improvement in the CAD should extend.""The CAD is a little firmer on the session, extending its positive run on the USD, although spot is holding within yesterday’s range. Short-term trend dynamics are bearish, with a succession of lower lows and lower highs defining a clear bear trend. Oscillators remain bearishly-aligned across the short-, medium– and long-term studies for USD/CAD which implies limited potential for the USD to rally at present and ongoing pressure for the USD slide to extend. Resistance remains 1.3650/60. Support is 1.3540/50. Major support and the bear target if 1.3400/05."

14:38 Gold surges as Trump says he looks for a 'real end' to the Israel-Iran war
Gold moves higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, trading around $3,395 at the time of writing, bolstered by an escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict and rising safe-haven demand.

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This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me." He added that Iran “should have taken the deal that was on the table — would have saved a lot of lives.”Markets reacted after Trump had earlier called for Iranian citizens to evacuate Tehran, warning of further strikes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed the message as Israeli airstrikes continued targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites. On Tuesday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed new missile and drone attacks on Israeli positions. The growing risk of a full-blown regional war has sent XAU/USD climbing back toward $3,400.Additionally, Retail Sales data from the United States (US) on Tuesday could provide an extra short-term catalyst for the precious metal. The report precedes Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision.Daily digest market movers: Factors to watch for GoldUS Retail Sales data serves as a key barometer for consumer spending, the largest contributor to US economic growth. Any downside surprise could support Gold, by reinforcing Fed dovish monetarpolicy expectations and weakening the Dollar.Monthy figures are expected to show a 0.7% contraction in May, following a 0.1% rise in April. The Retail Sales Control Group, which better reflects underlying consumer demand, fell by 0.2% in April, and another weak reading could reinforce the view that the US consumer is slowing.The Israel–Iran conflict remains a key upside risk to global inflation, particularly through its potential impact on Oil supply and shipping routes.A sharp escalation could drive energy prices higher, stall progress in disinflation and force central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer. This scenario could harm Gold, with competing forces of inflation hedge and higher US yields.The focus on Wednesday will be on the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot, which could reveal whether officials still anticipate one or two rate cuts in 2025 or scale back expectations in light of recent inflation risks.Technical analysis: Gold bulls push back toward $3,400On the 4-hour chart, Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating above the $3,375–$3,380 support zone, with prices last seen around $3,394. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,408 is capping immediate upside, while the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally offers support at $3,371.90. Below that, the 50-period SMA at $3,365 reinforces key demand.A break above $3,408 could lead to a retest of the monthly highs at $3,446 and $3,452. On the downside, failing to hold $3,371 could expose a deeper retracement toward $3,292, the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 51, indicating neutral momentum with room to extend in either direction.Gold 4-hour chart
Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

14:37 USD trades mixed amid market uncertainty – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is trading narrowly mixed amid subdued FX turnover, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading narrowly mixed amid subdued FX turnover, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.USD narrowly mixed versus majors "Markets have one eye tomorrow’s FOMC decision and the other on developments in the Middle East. Reports that Iran was keen to seek talks with Israel lifted risk appetite briefly yesterday but Israel is showing little interest in negotiations. President Trump left the G7 meeting early to return to Washington, citing the situation in the Middle East. Either he didn’t like the food or developments in the Israel/Iran situation are a worry. Global stocks (ex-Japan) are softer and among the major bond markets, only Treasurys are firmer." "Crude and gold have firmed somewhat. Markets are defensively positioned but that is not reflected in FX where the USD is essentially flat and core high beta FX are steady to slightly firmer while the NOK and CHF lead gains. The MXN and KRW are underperforming. If there’s little coherence to the FX moves, the lack of a clear 'haven' bid for the USD amid the uncertainty rather underscores the bearish sentiment surrounding it at present." "This morning’s run of US data is not expected to impress. Headline Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.6% in May as tariff policy weighs on activity (core data is expected to be a little firmer) while forecasts anticipate flat Industrial Production and Business Inventories. The NAHB Housing Market Index is forecast to improve a little in June but rising housing inventories may be a developing sign of weakness in that area."

13:58 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls are taking control, aiming for 145.35 and 146.00
The US Dollar is trading with minor gains against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, on track to complete a three-day winning streak.

13:56 US stock futures slump as Middle East conflict enters fifth day
US stock index futures face a sharp selling pressure during European trading hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US stock futures face selling pressure on mounting tensions between Israel and Iran.Iranian military forces struck ballistic missiles on the Israeli intelligence agency.The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday.US stock index futures face a sharp selling pressure during European trading hours on Tuesday. Investors dump US equity futures as the risk appetite of investors has diminished significantly amid uncertainty surrounding the future of the aerial war between Israel and Iran, and the outcome of the monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday.At the time of writing, S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% slightly below the psychological level of 6,000. Down futures ease over 240 points, and slides to near 42,720.Tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated as Tehran has struck ballistic missiles on Israeli intelligence agency Mossad’s headquarters during the European trading session, Tehran Times reported.Tehran has accelerated attacks on Israel after the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed that they have assassinated Ali Shadmani, Iran’s senior-most military official and Khamenei’s closest military advisor, according to CNBC.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades calmly, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) wobbling around 98.20. The US Dollar should has performed strongly amid heightening geopolitical tensions, however, its upside seems capped ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy announcement. Theoretically, demand for safe-haven assets, such as US Dollar, increases amid geopolitical uncertainty.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Therefore, the major trigger that will direct US equity markets will be Fed’s guidance on the monetary policy outlook for the remainder of the year, and economic and inflation forecasts.In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US Retail Sales data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is expected to have declined by 0.7% after a 0.1% growth seen in April. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

13:52 Australian Dollar holds firm amid Fed caution and Iran–Israel diplomatic push
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD pair holding comfortably within Monday’s trading range.

AUD/USD holds gains within Monday’s range despite a steady US Dollar.Ceasefire efforts and possible nuclear talks between Iran and Israel soothe risk jitters.RBA mulls publishing unattributed votes to boost policy transparency, decision eyed in July.Focus turns to US Retail Sales, Fed rate decision, and Australia’s employment data this week.The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD pair holding comfortably within Monday’s trading range. The Aussie’s modest gains come despite a broadly steady Greenback, as traders tread cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision due on Wednesday. Meanwhile, signs of easing geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel offer a slight lift to risk appetite in markets, even as cross-border strikes continue for the fifth consecutive day.At the time of writing, AUD/USD is up about 0.19% on the day, trading near 0.6533. Despite the mild intraday bounce, price action remains confined within a tight range between 0.6400 and 0.6550. On Monday, the pair briefly tested levels last seen in November 2024, hitting a session high of 0.6552 before paring gains to close lower. The 0.6550 mark continues to act as a stubborn barrier, capping upside attempts in recent weeks.The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, extending to the fifth consecutive day, with Israel reportedly striking more than 100 military and nuclear sites across Iran in a large-scale offensive dubbed Operation Rising Lion. In retaliation, Iran has launched multiple missile and drone attacks on major Israeli cities, resulting in civilian casualties and damage to diplomatic sites. Amid the escalating violence, global leaders are racing to prevent further escalation: the United States, France, and Gulf states are pushing for a ceasefire and a renewed nuclear dialogue, while Russia has offered to mediate by overseeing Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Meanwhile, the White House is reportedly considering a potential meeting this week between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, signaling a possible diplomatic opening that has helped keep broader market sentiment relatively stable.Within Australia, investors are closely monitoring developments at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). According to a government spokesperson, the central bank is considering whether to publish unattributed votes from its newly formed monetary policy board — a step aimed at enhancing transparency in its rate-setting process. The idea, which stems from recommendations made in last year’s independent review of the RBA, is expected to be on the table at the board’s next meeting in July.Looking forward, market focus shifts to US Retail Sales due Tuesday, the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, and Australia’s jobs report on Thursday — key events likely to drive AUD/USD volatility in the days ahead.

13:29 USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range between 7.1750 and 7.1950 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.1750 and 7.1950 against the Chinese Yuan (CNH). USD traded in a quiet manner last Friday. USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.1750 and 7.1950 against the Chinese Yuan (CNH). USD traded in a quiet manner last Friday. USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is still trading within the range24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, Monday, we stated that 'the price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect range trading today, most likely between 7.1770 and 7.1970.' Our view was not wrong, even though USD traded in a tight range of 7.1783/7.1904, closing little changed at 7.1841 (-0.05%). We continue to expect range-trading today, likely between 7.1750 and 7.1950." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Monday (09 Jun, spot at 7.1870), we highlighted that the recent 'mild downward momentum has eased, and USD has likely moved back into a range trading phase, probably between 7.1620 and 7.2200.' It’s been more than a week, and USD is still trading within the range, and we continue to hold the same view for now."

13:25 US: Section 899 may be weakened in the near future – Commerzbank
Last night, Republican senators presented their version of the 'Big Beautiful Bill', which includes a number of changes. The proposed changes to Section 899 are likely to be particularly relevant for the US Dollar (USD), Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Last night, Republican senators presented their version of the 'Big Beautiful Bill', which includes a number of changes. The proposed changes to Section 899 are likely to be particularly relevant for the US Dollar (USD), Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Changing the Section 899 may not solve the fundamental problem"The House of Representatives proposed introducing a higher tax rate for companies from countries whose tax policies the US administration deems discriminatory, often referred to as a 'retaliatory tax'. This tax rate was to increase to 20% within four years. However, the Senate proposal now provides for a cap of 15%, postponing its introduction until 2027. The rate will continue to rise by 5 percentage points each year, which may allow room for negotiation during this period.""This is certainly a step in the right direction for international investors concerned about suddenly having to pay higher taxes on their US investments. However, the proposal does not solve the fundamental problem. The US administration is rather one-sided in determining which international taxes it considers discriminatory. A frequently cited example is the value added tax, which the US administration strongly criticises." "This is set at federal state level in the US, a fact that the US government always seems to overlook. This means that the US does indeed levy a value-added tax, just not at the highest level. Therefore, demanding a higher tax rate to compensate for this does not necessarily make sense. Whether the tax rate is 20% or 15% is not that important. The general uncertainty associated with Section 899 is likely to be more decisive. Unfortunately, the Republicans' Senate proposal does not address this issue."

13:20 USD/JPY: Chance to rise above 145.00 – UOB Group
There is a chance for US Dollar (USD) to rise above 145.00 against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major resistance at 145.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, USD is likely to trade in a range between 143.00 and 145.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

There is a chance for US Dollar (USD) to rise above 145.00 against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major resistance at 145.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, USD is likely to trade in a range between 143.00 and 145.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Major resistance at 145.50 is unlikely to come under threat24-HOUR VIEW: "USD rebounded strongly last Friday. Yesterday, Monday, when USD was at 144.45, we indicated that 'the strong rebound has gathered momentum, and USD could potentially test 145.00 today.' We added, 'a rise above this level is not ruled out, but the major resistance at 145.50 is unlikely to come under threat.' We pointed out, 'support levels are at 144.00 and 143.50.' In the NY session, USD dipped to 143.63, rebounded sharply to 144.87, before ending the day at 144.72, up 0.44%. While there is no significant increase in upward momentum, there is a chance for USD to rise above 145.00 today. That said, the major resistance at 145.50 is still unlikely to come under threat. Today’s support levels are at 144.30 and 143.80." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (16 Jun, spot at 144.45), we highlighted that USD 'is likely to trade in a range for now, probably between 143.00 and 145.50.' There is no change in our view. Looking ahead, the odds of USD breaking above 145.50 first appear to be higher than it breaking below 143.00."

13:16 Natural Gas prices climb on fears of LNG disruption via Hormuz – ING
European natural Gas prices rose to their highest level since early April on Monday, after jumping by 4.8% last Friday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

European natural Gas prices rose to their highest level since early April on Monday, after jumping by 4.8% last Friday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Energy markets on edge amid talk of escalation"Similar to Oil, the biggest concern is that a further escalation would disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would also have a significant impact on the global LNG market." "Qatar, which makes up around 20% of global LNG trade, uses this route to export LNG. There is no alternative route. This would leave the global LNG market extremely tight, pushing European Gas prices significantly higher.""The European Commission is expected to propose a measure today to end the EU’s reliance on Russian pipeline and LNG supplies by the end of 2027, with a gradual ban on Russian Gas imports starting next January and prohibit services to Russian companies at EU LNG terminals."

13:15 US President Trump: I have not reached out to Iran for "Peace Talks" in any way
In latest post on his social media platform on Tuesday, Truth Social, US President Donald Trump said: "I have not reached out to Iran for “Peace Talks” in any way, shape, or form. This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me.

In latest post on his social media platform on Tuesday, Truth Social, US President Donald Trump said: "I have not reached out to Iran for “Peace Talks” in any way, shape, or form. This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table - Would have saved a lot of lives!!!"

13:15 GBP/JPY returns above 196.30 after the post-BoJ reversal
The Pound extended its reversal from Monday’s high at 196.85 after the Bank of Japan released its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, but, so far, the pair has remained steady above last week’s highs at 196.00.

13:14 Oil remains on edge – ING
Oil prices are rising again after President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Oil prices are rising again after President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Oil spikes as Trump calls for Tehran evacuation"His comments, which stood in contrast with previous optimism that the Israel-Iran conflict wouldn’t escalate into a broader regional conflict in the Middle East, renewed volatility in financial markets. On Monday, there were reports that Iran had signalled that it wanted to deescalate hostilities with Israel and was willing to restart nuclear talks as long as the US doesn’t join the Israeli attack.""The US President has cut short his G-7 visit, reportedly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which has sparked speculation about potential US involvement in the conflict. The market remains on edge with the biggest fear a potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which would lead prices to soar further.""Almost a third of global seaborne Oil trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz. So far, Oil-exporting infrastructure has been avoided and there has been no blockage of the Strait of Hormuz."

13:08 NZD/USD: Likely to consolidate in a range of 0.6025/0.6085 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to consolidate in a range of 0.6025/0.6085. In the longer run, upward momentum is increasing, but NZD must first close above 0.6095 before a move to 0.6135 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to consolidate in a range of 0.6025/0.6085. In the longer run, upward momentum is increasing, but NZD must first close above 0.6095 before a move to 0.6135 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Upward momentum is increasing24-HOUR VIEW: "We did not expect the sharp rise in NZD that reached a high of 0.6088 (we were expecting range trading). NZD pulled back from the high to close at 0.6059. The pullback in overbought conditions suggests NZD is unlikely to rise further. Today, NZD is more likely to consolidate in a range of 0.6025/0.6085." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted last Friday (13 Jun, spot at 0.6025) that the recent 'upward pressure has faded.' We were of the view that NZD 'is likely to trade in a range of 0.5970/0.6080 for now.' Yesterday, NZD rose sharply to 0.6088. There has been an increase in momentum, but not sufficient to indicate the start of a sustained advance just yet. NZD must first close above 0.6095 before a move to 0.6135 can be expected. The likelihood of NZD closing above 0.6095 will remain intact as long as the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6005, is not breached."

12:58 S&P 500 rebounds from the 5960 support – Société Générale
The S&P 500 is testing the resilience of its uptrend after rebounding from a key support level near 5960pts, with momentum indicators suggesting caution, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

The S&P 500 is testing the resilience of its uptrend after rebounding from a key support level near 5960pts, with momentum indicators suggesting caution, Société Générale's FX analysts note. All eyes on February high near 6147pts"S&P 500 breached a short-term ascending trend line however it has staged a rebound after carving out an interim low near 5960pts last week. The index is gradually approaching the high achieved in February at 6147pts." "Daily MACD has turned flattish highlighting receding upward momentum. It will be interesting to see if the index can maintain above 5960pts. Inability to defend this support may result in a deeper pullback towards the 200-DMA at 5830/5800pts."

12:54 DXY: Sideways near recent low – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) continued to trade near recent lows as markets navigate higher oil prices owing to geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties and central bank meetings this week. Dollar Index (DXY) was last at 98.17 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) continued to trade near recent lows as markets navigate higher oil prices owing to geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties and central bank meetings this week. Dollar Index (DXY) was last at 98.17 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Focus this week is on FOMC"USD’s bounce on Friday owing to geopolitical escalation proved short-lived as 'sell USD' trade came back with a punch. EUR broke above 1.16-handle briefly overnight, AUD and NZD reclaimed 0.65, 0.60 handle and in AxJ space, TWD strengthened. Gold prices eased overnight as tensions appeared to ease slightly. Trump yesterday said that Iranian officials called him to discuss the situation. But this morning, Trump said 'everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran'. He also hinted to reporters that there would be more developments in the Middle East as soon as he leaves the G7 meeting (to return to US)." "White house officials just indicated a proposal this week with Iran on topics relating to nuclear deal and ceasefire. Geopolitical development remains fluid and deserves further monitoring. De-escalation would likely weigh on the dollar and bring support back to risk proxies but if tensions worsen, high-beta FX such as AUD and NZD may trade on the back foot. Also, oil prices may risk going higher should tensions worsen dramatically. This may dampen the momentum in some AxJ FX, especially net oil importer FX, including INR." "Daily momentum has a mild bearish bias but RSI shows signs of rising from near oversold conditions. Resistance at 99 levels (21 DMA), 99.60 (50 DMA). Support at 97.60 (recent low). Focus this week is on FOMC (Thursday 2am SGT). Status quo likely, but all eyes on the dot plot and press conference. Markets look for 2 cuts by yearend. If the Fed signals just one cut (last dot plot looks for 2 cut) or pushes back easing expectations, then USD could get another lift, but anything less hawkish/more dovish could trigger USD selling."

12:35 EUR/JPY clears key resistance – Société Générale
EUR/JPY extends gains after breaking out of a multi-month range, supported by bullish momentum and stable technical indicators, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/JPY extends gains after breaking out of a multi-month range, supported by bullish momentum and stable technical indicators, Société Générale's FX analysts note. EUR/JPY builds on bullish momentum above 165 support"EUR/JPY recently broke out from its multi-month range highlighting possibility of extension in up move. Daily MACD remains anchored within positive territory denoting prevalence of upward momentum." "Recent pivot low and the upper limit of previous consolidation at 165/164.60 is a crucial support zone near term. Next objectives could be located at projections of 168.40 and 170/170.60."

12:34 BoJ: Unchanged as expected – Commerzbank
This morning, the Bank of Japan left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. This decision was anticipated by both economists and the market, and according to the BoJ, it was reached unanimously, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

This morning, the Bank of Japan left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. This decision was anticipated by both economists and the market, and according to the BoJ, it was reached unanimously, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Bank of Japan to continue proceeding cautiously"However, today's meeting focused more on the Bank of Japan's bond-buying programme. Last summer, the BoJ began reducing its monthly gross purchase volume by around JPY 400 billion each quarter. Consequently, it has only purchased around JPY 4 trillion in bonds per month for the past two months. From April next year, the BoJ intends to reduce the pace at which it cuts its purchase volume to JPY 200 billion each quarter. ""This means that the BoJ will still buy fewer bonds each quarter than the previous quarter, but by half as much. There was some uncertainty surrounding this decision, and according to the BoJ, there was also one dissenting vote (out of nine) against it. However, according to a Bloomberg survey, most economists had expected this move anyway.""Therefore, there were no surprises today, which shows us once again that the Bank of Japan will continue to proceed cautiously when in doubt and will find it difficult to surprise the market. Consequently, the Japanese yen is likely to continue struggling to appreciate significantly against even a weaker US dollar in the coming months, which should result in continued weakness against the euro."

12:33 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:18 USD/CAD falls toward 1.3550 due to higher Oil prices, Canada’s 10-year yield
USD/CAD continues to lose ground for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.3560 during the European hours on Tuesday.

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The pair depreciates as the Canadian Dollar (CAD), a commodity-linked currency, draws support from the higher crude Oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude supplier to the United States (US), the largest Oil consumer.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price retraces its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around $71.10 per barrel at the time of writing. Oil prices rise due to ongoing fears over supply disruption amid Israel-Iran hostilities. Traders are monitoring successive missile exchanges between the two security states and the looming threat of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.Additionally, the yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond is trading around 3.4%, a five-month high. The rise in yields is supported by hawkish expectations for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) policy outlook, as core inflation readings have stubbornly held above the BoC’s 2% target. Moreover, an unexpected 1.2% rise in Canadian April retail sales reinforced the hawkish view for future policy decisions by the central bank. The higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the Canadian Dollar.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining stable at around 98.20 at the time of writing. The US Retail Sales data for May will be eyed on Tuesday. Traders will shift their focus toward the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

12:10 US President Trump: EU not yet offering a fair deal
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, “the European Union (EU) is not yet offering a fair deal.”

12:07 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD is testing the top of a potential Bullish Flag at $36.60
Silver consolidates above $36.00 with the upside trend intact.Risk-off markets and higher demand for safe havens are supportive of precious metals.XAG/USD is forming a potential Bullish Flag.Silver (XAG/USD) is on a downside correction from all-time highs, near $37.00 hit on Early June.

12:06 AUD/USD can retest the 0.6550 level – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) could retest the 0.6550 level against US Dollar (USD) before a more sustained and deeper pullback is likely. In the longer run, AUD appears to have moved into a range-trading phase between 0.6430 and 0.6550, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) could retest the 0.6550 level against US Dollar (USD) before a more sustained and deeper pullback is likely. In the longer run, AUD appears to have moved into a range-trading phase between 0.6430 and 0.6550, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD appears to have moved into a range-trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, AUD dropped sharply to 0.6457 before rebounding quickly. Yesterday, we indicated that 'downward pressure appears to have eased with the rebound.' We were of the view that AUD 'is likely to trade in a range between 0.6460 and 0.6520.' Our view of rangetrading was incorrect, as AUD rose to 0.6552 and then pulled back to close up by 0.55% at 0.6524. Despite the pullback, the underlying tone remains firm, and AUD could retest the 0.6550 level before a more sustained and deeper pullback is likely. The major resistance at 0.6580 is unlikely to come into view. Support is at 0.6500; a breach of 0.6480 would indicate that AUD is likely to trade in a range instead of retesting 0.6550." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (13 Jun, spot at 0.6495), we highlighted that 'the current price movements are likely the early stages of a range-trading phase, and we expect AUD to trade between 0.6430 and 0.6550 for the time being.' Yesterday (Monday), AUD tested the 0.6550 level, retreating from a high of 0.6552. The price action did not result in an increase in upward momentum, and we continue to hold the same view for now."

12:02 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index leaps to 47.5 in June vs. 35 expected
The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index jumped to 47.5 in June from 25.2 in May, beating the market forecast of 35 by a wide margin.

12:01 Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment came in at 35.3, above expectations (23.5) in June
Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment came in at 35.3, above expectations (23.5) in June

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above forecasts (35) in June: Actual (47.5)
Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above forecasts (35) in June: Actual (47.5)

12:00 ECB’s Stournaras: Any further rate cuts will depend on data
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras said on Tuesday, “any further rate cuts will depend on data.”

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras said on Tuesday, “any further rate cuts will depend on data.”He further noted that “the ECB has reached first point of equilibrium.”

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation above expectations (-74) in June: Actual (-72)
Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation above expectations (-74) in June: Actual (-72)

11:58 Gold moves higher – ING
Gold is moving higher again as Trump’s Tehran warning has sparked haven buying. Prices rose above $3,400/oz in early Asian trading on Tuesday after a 1.4% slide on Monday – the biggest one day decline in a month, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Gold is moving higher again as Trump’s Tehran warning has sparked haven buying. Prices rose above $3,400/oz in early Asian trading on Tuesday after a 1.4% slide on Monday – the biggest one day decline in a month, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.US Federal Reserve meeting to be in focus on Wednesday"The focus for the Gold market will remain on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. With uncertainty lingering, safe-haven bid for Gold is likely to be supported. Prices gained almost 4% last week as the conflict in the Middle East escalated.""Meanwhile, exchange-traded funds added 136,032 troy ounces of Gold to their holdings in the last trading session. This brought this year’s net purchases to six million ounces (according to Bloomberg). SPDR Gold Shares, the largest Gold ETF, saw a $285m inflow on Friday, its biggest in weeks.""Later this week, the US Federal Reserve meeting will be in focus on Wednesday, where it is expected to hold interest rates steady."

11:57 IEA: In the absence of major disruption, Oil markets in 2025 look well supplied
In its monthly oil market report published on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that “in reference to Israel-Iran conflict, in the absence of major disruption, oil markets in 2025 look well supplied.”

In its monthly oil market report published on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that “in reference to Israel-Iran conflict, in the absence of major disruption, oil markets in 2025 look well supplied.”Additional takeawaysTrims 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 720,000 barrels per day (prev. 740,000 bpd).

Lowers 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 740,000 bpd (prev. 760,000 bpd) citing challenging economic outlook and cleaner energy uptake.

World oil supply to rise by 1.8 million bpd in 2025 (prev. 1.6 million bpd rise).

Global oil demand to plateau around 105.5 million bpd by end of this decade.

US oil demand in 2030 will be 1.1 million bpd higher than previous forecast due to lower gasoline prices, loss of momentum in EV adoption.

Global oil production capacity is forecast to reach 114.7 million bpd by 2030, far above expected demand.

Oil market is expected to be comfortably supplied through 2030, barring major disruptions.Market reactionFollowing these findings from the report, WTI faces headwinds once again above $71. At the time of writing, the US Oil still adds 1.37% on the day to trade near $71.

11:56 USD/JPY: Bank of Japan keeps rates on hold – ING
The Japanese Yen (JPY) move is fairly muted, rising against the dollar to 144.46 (vs 145 previously) then staying range-bound, and JGB futures dropped around 0.1% after the Bank of Japan's decision to keep its policy rate at 0.5% and to slow the JGB tapering from April 2026, ING's FX analyst Frances

The Japanese Yen (JPY) move is fairly muted, rising against the dollar to 144.46 (vs 145 previously) then staying range-bound, and JGB futures dropped around 0.1% after the Bank of Japan's decision to keep its policy rate at 0.5% and to slow the JGB tapering from April 2026, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Yen seems muted on hawkish signals"Both decisions are in line with the market consensus. The BoJ will reduce JGB purchases by 200bn per quarter starting from April 2026. But there was one dissenting voter, and there will be a meeting between the MoF and PDs later this week, which may create more volatility. So, this might have given some cautiousness to the JGB market.""The BoJ’s JGB hold on the short end is relatively smaller than the long end, thus quantitative tightening has a much bigger impact on market rates. Slowing QT doesn’t necessarily signal a slowdown of rate hikes by the BoJ. To sum up, the BoJ’s decision was in line with the market consensus, and the market’s initial reaction seems a bit limited."

11:53 GBP/USD: Expected to trade in a sideways range of 1.3540/1.3620 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 1.3540/1.3620. In the longer run, GBP must first close above 1.3640 before a move to 1.3700 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 1.3540/1.3620. In the longer run, GBP must first close above 1.3640 before a move to 1.3700 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. A move to 1.3700 can be expected above 1.364024-HOUR VIEW: "We noted the following yesterday: 'Momentum indicators are turning flat, and the current price movements are likely part of a sideways trading phase, probably between 1.3515 and 1.3605.' GBP then dipped to 1.3535, rose to 1.3636, before retreating to close largely unchanged (1.3576, +0.01%). The price movements still appear to be part of a sideways trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade in a range of 1.3540/1.3620." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest narrative from last Friday (13 Jun, spot at 1.3600), we highlighted that 'upward momentum is increasing, but we prefer to wait for a decisive close above 1.3640 before revising our GBP outlook to positive.' We added, 'the likelihood of GBP closing above 1.3640 will remain intact as long as 1.3515 is not breached.' Yesterday (Monday), GBP rose to 1.3621 and then retreated to close largely unchanged at 1.3576 (+0.01%). While there has been no further increase in upward momentum, there is still a chance for GBP to break clearly above 1.3640 as long as 1.3515 is not breached."

11:51 USD/JPY: BoJ, geopolitics to drive price action – OCBC
USD/JPY rose as Trump and PM Ishiba did not agree to a trade deal, while slightsigns of easing geopolitical tensions also saw some unwinding of JPY longs while market expectation for BoJ to stand pat kept the pair broadly supported.

USD/JPY rose as Trump and PM Ishiba did not agree to a trade deal, while slightsigns of easing geopolitical tensions also saw some unwinding of JPY longs while market expectation for BoJ to stand pat kept the pair broadly supported. USD/JPY was last at 144.81 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Slight risk to the upside"We had earlier indicated that BoJ MPC on Tue may complicate JPY’s safe haven story. Governor Ueda’s recent comments that BoJ is still some distance from 2% goal gave the impression that timing of next hike may be pushed back. The timing of the BoJ policy normalisation may be deferred but policy normalisation is not derailed." "Broadening price pressure and wage growth suggest that BoJ’s next course of action remains a hike but in the interim, BoJ may prefer to stay on hold due to uncertainties on outlook and tariff. Nevertheless, we remain watchful for any surprise hawkish tone (from press conference) as that may pose downward pressure on the pair." 'Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Slight risk to the upside. Resistance at 145.10, 145.50 levels. Support at 144 (21, 50 DMAs), 142.50 levels.'

11:48 USD: Trade versus geopolitical news – ING
The situation in Israel and Iran has shown few signs of de-escalation, and while that is offering intermittent support to the dollar, it has so far failed to generate a major rebound in the greenback, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The situation in Israel and Iran has shown few signs of de-escalation, and while that is offering intermittent support to the dollar, it has so far failed to generate a major rebound in the greenback, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. FOMC announcement looming on Wednesday"The main geopolitics-FX channel remains oil, whose price action suggests markets believe the worst of the impact may be past us. While a risk premium on crude prices remains warranted for now, investors look minded to gradually scale it back unless they see evidence of serious supply disruptions. The US is attempting to broker some talks between Iran and Israel, and any signs of de-escalation should harm the dollar from here.""What we think is more likely to have a positive USD impact is the G7 summit in Canada. Today, we could see most headlines centred on trade discussions, and Trump has in the past tended to turn less hawkish on protectionism after direct talks with foreign leaders. Any indications that the 90-day tariff pause will be extended should offer decent support to the dollar.""On the data side, the US releases retail sales figures for May after a surprisingly big drop in the Empire index yesterday, which confirmed that there are still mostly negatives from US tariffs for US manufacturers. We see some upside risks for the dollar today given the possibility of constructive remarks on trade coming from the G7 summit. However, with the FOMC announcement looming tomorrow, there could be more cautiousness in chasing moves in either direction in USD crosses."

11:40 EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.1510 and 1.160 – UOB Group
Momentum indicators remain flattish; Euro (EUR) is expected to trade in a range against US Dollar (USD), likely between 1.1510 and 1.1605.

Momentum indicators remain flattish; Euro (EUR) is expected to trade in a range against US Dollar (USD), likely between 1.1510 and 1.1605. In the longer run, upward momentum has slowed somewhat; a breach of 1.1480 would suggest EUR may trade in a range instead of rising further, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Upward momentum has slowed somewhat24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted yesterday that 'momentum is turning flat', and we expected EUR to 'consolidate in a range of 1.1495/1.1600.' EUR subsequently traded in a higher range than expected (1.1522/1.1614) before closing largely unchanged at 1.1561 (+0.08%). Momentum indicators remain flattish, and we continue to expect range trading, likely between 1.1510 and 1.1605." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive on EUR last Thursday. Following the sharp pullback in EUR last Friday, we pointed out yesterday (16 Jun, spot at 1.1540) that 'upward momentum has slowed somewhat, and a breach of 1.1480 would suggest that EUR may trade in a range instead of rising further.' EUR subsequently traded in a range, closing largely unchanged, and there is no change in our view."

11:35 EUR: ZEW might underwhelm – ING
EUR/USD price action is so far endorsing our call that markets are not ready to take the pair much above 1.160 just yet.

EUR/USD price action is so far endorsing our call that markets are not ready to take the pair much above 1.160 just yet. The upside risks aren’t small though, for instance, if markets are disappointed with the trade headlines from Canada and oil prices correct lower due to perceived abatement in the Middle East turmoil, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Euro’s contribution to EUR/USD moves remains minimal"Yesterday, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel briefly mentioned the oil rally as a potential risk to price stability, and otherwise reiterated President Christine Lagarde’s narrative that the ECB is in a good position with rates. But it is indeed oil prices that are likely to have the biggest impact on rate expectations at the moment. Unless Brent corrects further, markets may not really consider bringing the next cut forward to October.""The euro’s contribution to EUR/USD moves remains minimal, but today’s release of the ZEW survey in Germany can have some market impact. The 'expectations' gauge is seen rebounding further to 35.0, but concerns about the EU-US trade standoff (albeit currently not the primary theme) could cap the upside.""We favour 1.15 rather than 1.16 as a near-term target and have a bearish bias on EUR/USD today. But the quite evident market preference to buy the dips in the pair means risks are still generally skewed to the upside."

11:25 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $36.50 amid Israel-Iran war
Silver price (XAG/USD) moves higher to near $36.50 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal trades firmly as the aerial war between Israel and Iran has increased demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

11:25 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Moves above 94.50, resistance appears near three-month highs
AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 94.60 during the European hours on Tuesday. As per the technical analysis of the daily chart, the currency cross remains within an ascending channel pattern, confirming a sustained bullish bias.

11:23 US Dollar Index (DXY) recovery loses steam above 98.00 despite the risk-off mood
Fears of an escalating war between Israel and Iran are boosting demand for safe havens on Tuesday, but the US Dollar is failing to draw any significant support from the context.

11:15 Pound Sterling trades sideways against US Dollar amid Israel-Iran conflict
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a limited range around 1.3565 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) turns sideways, while investors seek fresh cues on the future of the conflict between Israel and Iran.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling wobbles around 1.3565 against the US Dollar, with investors seeking fresh cues on the Israel-Iran war outlook.Investors expect the Fed and the BoE to leave interest rates steady this week.The UK inflation is expected to have grown moderately in May.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a limited range around 1.3565 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) turns sideways, while investors seek fresh cues on the future of the conflict between Israel and Iran.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, wobbles around 98.15.Earlier in the day, a report from Reuters showed that Iran sought after its Middle East peers to urge United States (US) President Donald Trump to push Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for an immediate ceasefire. Following Tehran’s urge, Trump has asked US Vice President JD Vance and the Middle East envoy to push for meeting with the Iranians this week at the sidelines of the G7 meeting, The New York Times reported.Meanwhile, the tussle between Iran and Israel enters its fifth day. The Israeli military said during late Asian hours on Tuesday that they had identified missiles launched from Iran toward Israel, according to the BBC News.The demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar, increases amid heightening geopolitical tensions.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling ranges againt US DollarAnother reason behind the sideways trend between the Pound Sterling and the US Dollar is the upcoming monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), which are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% this time. Traders are increasingly confident that the central bank will keep borrowing rates on hold as officials have stated that monetary policy adjustments are inappropriate until they get clarity on how much new economic policies will impact inflation and affect the outlook.The major highlight of the Fed’s policy will be the dot plot, which shows where officials see interest rates heading in the near and long term. In the last release of the dot plot in March, officials anticipated at least two interest rate cuts by the year-end. Apart from that, investors will also focus on the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to know when the central bank could start reducing interest rates.In Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement, the Fed will also show forecasts on inflation and economic growth. It will be interesting to watch the degree of change in these key economic triggers amid the implementation of new policies by US President Trump.In the United Kingdom (UK), the Bank of England (BoE) is also expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.25% as officials guided a “gradual and cautious” monetary easing approach in thMay’s policy meeting, following an interest rate reduction by 25 basis points (bps).However, market participants expect that the BoE could reassess its monetary policy guidance, given recent cracks in the UK labor market. Latest employment data showed an increase in the Unemployment Rate and slower job growth as business owners reduced labor force to offset the impact of an increase in employers’ contribution to social security schemes.Ahead of the BoE monetary policy announcement, investors will focus on the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be released on Wednesday. The inflation data is expected to show that price pressures have cooled down.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling consolidates below 1.3600The Pound Sterling wobbles inside Monday’s trading range around 1.3565 against the US Dollar on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair struggles to revisit the three-year high around 1.3630. The near-term trend of the Cable remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 1.3508.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break decisively above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above that level.On the upside, the 13 January 2022 high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the horizontal line plotted from the September 26 high of 1.3434 will act as a key support zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:00 Forex Today: Markets stabilize ahead of key central bank meetings
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, June 17:

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Economic sentiment data from the Eurozone and Germany will be featured in the European economic calendar. Later in the day, May Retail Sales and Industrial Production data from the US will be watched closely by market participants. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.03% 0.08% -0.16% 0.00% -0.22% -0.23% -0.16% EUR -0.03% 0.03% -0.17% -0.04% -0.22% -0.18% -0.21% GBP -0.08% -0.03% -0.25% -0.07% -0.27% -0.27% -0.23% JPY 0.16% 0.17% 0.25% 0.16% -0.07% -0.07% -0.03% CAD -0.00% 0.04% 0.07% -0.16% -0.29% -0.16% -0.16% AUD 0.22% 0.22% 0.27% 0.07% 0.29% 0.02% 0.01% NZD 0.23% 0.18% 0.27% 0.07% 0.16% -0.02% -0.01% CHF 0.16% 0.21% 0.23% 0.03% 0.16% -0.01% 0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Iran was looking to end hostilities with Israel and resume the talks over its nuclear program. Later in the day, G7 leaders attended a summit in Canada and issued a joint statement calling for a “de-escalation” on Iran on Monday. The G7 statement said that members have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump left the summit early and travelled back to Washington. Although there was speculation that Trump was going back to work on a cease fire deal between Israel and Iran, he clarified that this was not the case. Early Tuesday, a senior Iranian army commander reportedly noted that the attacks against Israel will intensify later in the day.The US Dollar (USD) Index stays quiet and holds slightly above 98.00 after ending the first day of the week virtually unchanged. In the meantime, US stock index futures trade modestly lower. The Federal Reserve will announce monetary policy decisions on Wednesday.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced on Tuesday that it left the short-term interest rate target steady in the range of 0.4%- 0.5%, as widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the BoJ noted that the economic growth is likely to moderate as trade policies lead to a slowdown in overseas economy and a decline in corporate profits. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda repeated in the post-meeting press conference that they will keep raising interest rates if prices and the economy moves in line with their outlook. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to reach a trade agreement on the sidelines of the G7 summit. Despite these developments, USD/JPY fluctuates in a tight channel at around 144.50 early Tuesday.Crude oil prices declined sharply and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost about 4% on Monday. Early Tuesday, the WTI is up nearly 2% on the day, trading slightly above $71.Gold lost more than 1% on Monday and snapped a three-day winning streak. In the European session, XAU/USD remains flat below $3,400.GBP/USD extends its sideways grind above 1.3550 after closing little changed on Monday. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release May inflation data on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce monetary policy decisions.EUR/USD ended the first trading day of the week marginally higher. The pair stays in a consolidation phase early Tuesday and moves up and down in a narrow band above 1.1550. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

10:57 EUR/JPY edges lower to near 167.00 following BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech
EUR/JPY halts its winning streak that began on June 5, trading around 167.20 during the early European hours on Tuesday. Earlier in the Asian session, the pair reached 167.59, the highest level since July 2024.

10:46 WTI Oil bounces up on geopolitical tensions but fails to confirm above $72.00
Crude prices have been capped at the $72.00 level but remain 12% above May's range.Fears of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are keeping downside attempts limited.Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, Novak, is pressuring the OPEC+ to reconsider output hikes.

10:33 NZD/USD clings to gains around 0.6065-0.6070, remains close to YTD peak ahead of US Retail Sales
The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 0.6045 area on Tuesday and stalls the previous day's late pullback from its highest level since October 2024.

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Geopolitical risks might cap the risk-sensitive Kiwi ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting.The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 0.6045 area on Tuesday and stalls the previous day's late pullback from its highest level since October 2024. The uptick, however, lacks strong follow-through, with spot prices currently trading around the 0.6065-0.6070 area, up just over 0.10% for the day during the early European session. The US Dollar (USD) continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers and remains well within striking distance of a three-year low, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. Traders have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September amid signs of easing inflation and a slowing economy. This, along with US fiscal concerns and trade-related uncertainties, keeps the USD bulls on the defensive. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), on the other hand, draws support from domestic data, which showed that the Food Price Index accelerated from 3.8% in April to 4.4% last month, marking the highest level since December 2023. The data comes on top of expectations for just one more interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and lends additional support to the NZD/USD pair. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of the key central bank event risk.The US central bank is scheduled to announce its policy decision at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday and is widely expected to maintain the status quo amid the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies. Hence, the focus will be on the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the post-meeting presser. Investors will look for cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path, which will drive the USD and the NZD/USD pair. In the meantime, traders on Tuesday will take cues from the release of US monthly Retail Sales figures for some impetus later during the early North American session. Meanwhile, the global risk sentiment is weighed down by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This might further hold back traders from placing bullish bets around the risk-sensitive NZD and contribute to capping the NZD/USD pair, which remains confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

10:28 EUR/USD hesitates within previous ranges as risk appetite fades
The EUR/USD pair is trading practically flat, halfway through the 1.1500 range on Tuesday.

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Israel and Iran have continued exchanging fire for the fifth day, and US President Donald Trump has urged citizens to evacuate Tehran, before leaving the G7 summit one day earlier to meet with the National Security Council. Concerns that the US might get involved in the conflict have boosted risk aversion.

Nevertheless, market moves remain limited so far, with investors looking from the sidelines ahead of US Retail Sales data, due later on Tuesday, and the outcome of the Fed's monetary policy meeting, on Wednesday.

The US central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but investors will be particularly attentive to the summary of economic projections and potential variations in the dot plot to asses the path of interest rates in the near term. Daily digest market movers: The US Dollar recovers its safe-haven statusTrump's hasty exit from the G7 summit has boosted concerns that the US might get involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. The news has crushed investors' appetite for risk and provided some support to the US Dollar on higher demand for safe assets. Israel and Iran continued exchanging missiles before that. Iran vowed to launch its largest missile attack in history at Israel, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to kill Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. In the meantime, Trump's call to Tehran citizens to leave the city has fuelled concerns of a serious escalation of the conflict.The market reaction has been risk-averse, yet with limited volatility so far. Traders are in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting the Fed interest rate decision later in the week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of the most-traded currencies, is moving right above the 98.00 level, not far from last week's multi-year lows.In the macroeconomic front, the focus on Tuesday will be on the US Retail Sales data, which are expected to show a significant 0.7% contraction in May after a 0.1% growth in April, showing further evidence of the negative impact of the tariff turmoil in the US economy.In the European session, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is expected to show a minor improvement in June, although the impact on the Euro is likely to be subdued, with geopolitical tensions front and center in the market.The highlight of the week will be the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The bank will, most probably, leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the current 4.25%-4.5% range, but investors will be looking for changes in the interest rate projections, which pointed to two more rate cuts this year, and the growth and inflation forecasts.US data released on Monday revealed a sharp deterioration of the NY Fed Manufacturing Index, which fell to a reading of -16 in June, against expectations of a moderate improvement to -5.5 from -9.2 in May.Technical analysis: EUR/USD forming a small triangle around 1.1550

EUR/USD has been moving within an ever-tightening range since peaking above 1.1600 last week, forming a small triangle. Technical studies say that this is a continuation pattern, suggesting a bullish outcome.
The top of the triangle, now around 1.1600, is likely to hold bulls ahead of the June 12 high at 1.1630. Above here, the 1.1700 psychological level might attract sellers. The triangle pattern's measured target is at 1.1750.

On the downside, the triangle bottom is at 1.1525 ahead of the June 13 low at around 1.1490. Below here, the bullish trend would be called into question, with pressure increasing towards 1.1370 (June 6 and 10 lows). Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

09:57 EUR/GBP extends the rally above 0.8500 ahead of ZEW Economic Sentiment Surveys
The EUR/GBP cross extends its upside to near 0.8520 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to pause its easing cycle to assess the impact of new US tariffs.

09:37 BoJ's Ueda: Will respond nimbly in case of rapid rise in long-term interest rates
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo speaks at a press conference on Tuesday, explaining the Bank’s decision to hold the interest rate at 0.5% for the third straight meeting.

09:14 FX option expiries for Jun 17 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jun 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jun 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1600 670m1.1625 1.7bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3400 420mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 142.10 500m142.90 550m146.00 509m146.25 475mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3600 760m

09:08 USD/CHF weakens below 0.8150 ahead of US Retail Sales release
The USD/CHF pair softens to around 0.8135 during the early European session on Tuesday. The persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide some support to the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the US Dollar (USD). Traders brace for the US Retail Sales data for May, which is due later on Tuesday.

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The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran boosts the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc.Traders await the US May Retail Sales data on Tuesday ahead of the Fed interest rate decision. The USD/CHF pair softens to around 0.8135 during the early European session on Tuesday. The persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide some support to the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the US Dollar (USD). Traders brace for the US Retail Sales data for May, which is due later on Tuesday. The conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its fifth day despite world calls for negotiation and de-escalation. Late Monday, US President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital Tehran, hours after urging the country’s leadership to accept a deal to limit its nuclear program, even though Israel indicated that attacks would continue. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the CHF in the near term. Nonetheless, any signs of easing geopolitical tensions might drag the CHF lower and act as a tailwind for the pair. There was some hope on Monday that the situation would not worsen when Iran reportedly asked many countries to put pressure on Israel for a ceasefire.The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will take center stage on Wednesday, which is expected to keep interest rates steady at its June meeting. Futures markets expect two rate cuts by year-end, possibly beginning in September, bolstered by softer inflation data last week.Traders will take more cues from the FOMC Press Conference. "If the Fed delivers a dovish hold as we expect, the dollar is likely to resume weakening due to the worsening fundamental backdrop in the U.S,” said Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

09:07 Israeli military says it has identified missiles launched from Iran towards them
The conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its fifth day despite world calls for negotiation and de-escalation. The Israeli military said on Tuesday that they identified missiles launched from Iran toward Israel.

09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $70.58 per barrel, up from Monday’s close at $70.06.

08:55 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Sees more downside towards 1.3400
The USD/CAD pair wobbles inside Monday’s trading range around 1.3575 during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The Loonie pair trades sideways as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD consolidates around 1.3575, with investors awaiting the Fed’s monetary policy.The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday.US Trump and Canada’s Carney aim to reach a trade deal within 30 days.The USD/CAD pair wobbles inside Monday’s trading range around 1.3575 during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The Loonie pair trades sideways as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% as officials have stated that monetary policy adjustments are inappropriate until they get clarity on how much new economic policies by Washington will impact the inflation and the economic outlook.At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 98.15.Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) underperforms its peers on Tuesday even though Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and United States (US) President Donald Trump agreed to reach a trade deal within 30 days, Reuters reported. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.06% 0.08% -0.06% 0.06% -0.11% -0.13% -0.05% EUR -0.06% -0.00% -0.10% -0.00% -0.14% -0.10% -0.13% GBP -0.08% 0.00% -0.14% -0.01% -0.14% -0.14% -0.12% JPY 0.06% 0.10% 0.14% 0.11% -0.07% -0.07% -0.02% CAD -0.06% 0.00% 0.00% -0.11% -0.24% -0.09% -0.12% AUD 0.11% 0.14% 0.14% 0.07% 0.24% 0.03% 0.02% NZD 0.13% 0.10% 0.14% 0.07% 0.09% -0.03% -0.01% CHF 0.05% 0.13% 0.12% 0.02% 0.12% -0.02% 0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote). Theoretically, the scenario is favorable for the Loonie as the Canadian economy relies heavily on its exports to the US.USD/CAD trades close to its eight-month low, which is around 1.3540. The overall trend of the pair is bearish as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping downwards.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 20.00-40.00 range, suggesting that a bearish momentum is intact.The asset could slide towards the psychological level of 1.3500 and the September 25 low of 1.3420 if it breaks below Monday’s low of 1.3540.On the contrary, a recovery move above the May 29 high of 1.3820 would turn the near-term trend to bullish and open the door towards the May 21 high of 1.3920, followed by the My 15 high of 1.4000.USD/CAD daily chart
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

08:54 US President Donald Trump says leaving G7 summit early has nothing to do with Iran-Israel ceasefire
US President Donald Trump's decision to leave the G-7 conference in Canada was reportedly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, raising questions about potential US involvement. However, Trump said that the reason why he went back to Washington D.C. is much bigger than that.

08:06 EUR/USD treads water above 1.1550, receives support from ECB-Fed policy divergence
EUR/USD holds ground for the second successive session, trading around 1.1560 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair maintains its position near 1.1631, the highest since October 2021, reached on June 12.

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The pair maintains its position near 1.1631, the highest since October 2021, reached on June 12. The Euro (EUR) receives support from improved risk sentiment amid decreasing concerns of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.Iran reportedly asked many countries, including Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, to urge US President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel for an immediate ceasefire, per Reuters. G7 leaders issued a statement, “We have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.” They highlighted that resolving the crisis can lead to broader de-escalation of hostilities in the region.The Euro also receives support against its peers, driven by divergent policy paths between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The probability of a September rate cut by the ECB slipped to 50%, down from 60%, with markets projecting the deposit rate at 1.79% by the end of 2025. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel supported maintaining policy flexibility, citing the complex global backdrop.Meanwhile, traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday. Investors will focus on the updated economic projections and the dot plot, as markets continue to price in the possibility of a rate cut as early as September. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

08:02 GBP/JPY retreats from five-month high near 197.00 after BoJ’s policy decision
The GBP/JPY pair falls back to near 196.15 during late Asian trading hours on Tuesday after posting a fresh five-month high around 196.85 earlier in the day.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/JPY faces pressure after refreshing five-month high near 196.85 after the BoJ held interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.The BoJ expects the underlying inflation to return to its target in the second-half of fiscal 2025-2027 period.Investors expect the BoE to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday.The GBP/JPY pair falls back to near 196.15 during late Asian trading hours on Tuesday after posting a fresh five-month high around 196.85 earlier in the day. The pair faces selling pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts bids after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced the monetary policy, in which it left interest rates steady at 0.5% for the third consecutive meeting. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% 0.03% -0.12% 0.02% -0.18% -0.21% -0.04% EUR -0.01% -0.01% -0.10% -0.00% -0.16% -0.13% -0.07% GBP -0.03% 0.00% -0.16% 0.00% -0.15% -0.17% -0.06% JPY 0.12% 0.10% 0.16% 0.14% -0.06% -0.08% 0.06% CAD -0.02% 0.00% -0.00% -0.14% -0.27% -0.15% -0.07% AUD 0.18% 0.16% 0.15% 0.06% 0.27% 0.01% 0.09% NZD 0.21% 0.13% 0.17% 0.08% 0.15% -0.01% 0.08% CHF 0.04% 0.07% 0.06% -0.06% 0.07% -0.09% -0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). The BoJ was expected to hold borrowing rates at their current levels as Governor Kazuo Ueda had already guided that policymakers would tighten financial conditions when they get convinced that the underlying inflation will move around the central bank’s target of 2%.Japanese central bank has predicted that the underlying inflation will come to its target in the 2nd half of fiscal 2025 to 2027 period. On global risks, the BoJ has stated that they will closely monitor the impact of trade war on financial, forex markets, domestic growth, and inflation.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling trades cautiously ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday and the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement on Thursday. Economists expect the UK inflation to have grown moderately, a scenario that will encourage traders to raise bets supporting the BoE to deliver more interest rate cuts this year.On Thursday, the BoE is expected to leave interest rates steady at 4.25% as officials guided a “gradual and cautious” monetary easing approach in the May’s policy meeting, following an interest rate reduction by 25 basis points (bps). Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Last release: Tue Jun 17, 2025 03:31 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 0.5% Consensus: 0.5% Previous: 0.5% Source: Bank of Japan

07:56 USD/INR falls at open as de-escalating Israel-Iran conflict improves market sentiment
The Indian Rupee (INR) rises to near 85.95 at the open against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee trades higher, nearing 85.95 against the US Dollar in the opening session, amid easing Middle East tensions.Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates steady on Wednesday.The RBI opens the door for further monetary policy expansion.The Indian Rupee (INR) rises to near 85.95 at the open against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair faces selling pressure as fresh signs of de-escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran have slightly increased the risk appetite of investors, a scenario that lifts demand for riskier currencies, such as the Indian Rupee.After the G7 meeting, US President Donald Trump has asked Vice President JD Vance and the Middle East envoy to offer to meet with the Iranians this week, The New York Times reported.This development came after a report from Reuters showed that Tehran asked its Middle East peers to urge US President Trump to use his influence on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for an immediate ceasefire. A truce between Israel and Iran will provide dual benefits of a cheerful market mood and lower Oil prices to the Indian Rupee. The Indian currency was battered badly on Friday as the Oil price rallied after Israel launched a series of attacks on military bases and nuclear facilities in Iran, aiming to stop them from building nuclear warheads. Given that India is one of the largest oil-importing nations in the world, higher Oil prices weigh on the Indian Rupee.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee gains against US Dollar, Fed policy in focusThe Indian Rupee attracts bids at open against the US Dollar as the latter trades cautiously, with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. During Asian hours, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 98.15.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.Investors will closely monitor the comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the press conference, following the interest rate decision, to get cues about when the central bank will start reducing its key borrowing rates. The major highlight of the Fed policy would be the Fed’s dot plot, which shows where officials see interest rates heading in the near and long term.In today’s session, investors will focus on the US Retail Sales data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is expected to have declined by 0.7% after a 0.1% growth seen in April.In the Asian region, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra has expressed confidence that cooling inflationary pressures have opened space for further monetary policy expansion. “As regards any future easing, while it will not be right on my part to pre-empt the MPC, if the inflation outlook turns out to be below our projections, it will open up policy space,” Malhotra said in an interview with Business Standard on Monday.Slightly dovish comments from RBI's Malhotra came after year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for May grew at a moderate pace. The CPI and WPI data rose by 2.82% and 0.39%, respectively. In the monetary policy announcement earlier this month, the RBI projected the headline inflation target for the current financial year at 3.7%.Technical Analysis: USD/INR retraces to near 85.95The USD/INR pair corrects to near 85.95 on Tuesday after posting a fresh two-month high near 86.25 the previous day. However, the near-term trend of the pair remains firm as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 85.77.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RBI breaks above that level.Looking down, the 20-day EMA is a key support level for the major. On the upside, the May 23 high of 86.44 will be a critical hurdle for the pair. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

07:54 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Bearish bias remains unchanged near 98.00
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades with mild losses near 98.10 during the early European session on Tuesday.

07:53 GBP/USD holds steady above mid-1.3500s ahead of UK CPI, Fed/BoE policy meetings
The GBP/USD pair lacks any firm intraday directional bias and oscillates in a narrow trading band, above mid-1.3500s during the Asian session on Tuesday.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,372.64 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,357.51 it cost on Monday. The price for Gold increased to INR 109,320.60 per tola from INR 109,144.20 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,372.64 10 Grams 93,726.34 Tola 109,320.60 Troy Ounce 291,521.80 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls seem reluctant amid modest USD uptick; downside seems cushioned Israel struck Iran’s state-run television station on Monday, while Iran said that it is preparing for the largest and the most intense missile attack in history on Israeli soil. US President Donald Trump left the G7 Summit a day early because of the Middle East situation and has requested the National Security Council to convene in the Situation Room. Three tankers are reportedly on fire in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns of a possible repeat of the 2019 attacks attributed to Iran. This raises the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and assists the safe-haven Gold price to gain some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar edges higher amid repositioning trades ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting starting later today and acts as a headwind for the precious metal. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain the status quo and keep its benchmark rate unchanged amid concern that Trump's tariffs could push up consumer prices. Meanwhile, the USD uptick lacks bullish conviction on the back of rising bets that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. Hence, the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized closely for cues about the future rate-cut path. This, in turn, will help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD and the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Iran-Israel conflict might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven commodity. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:31 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades below mid-$36.00s; bullish potential seems intact
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move for the third consecutive day and trades below mid-$36.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday.

07:14 Gold price faces rejection near $3,400 amid some USD buying; lacks follow-through
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following an Asian session uptick to levels just above the $3,400 mark and turns lower for the second straight day on Tuesday. A modest US Dollar (USD) uptick is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity.

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Geopolitical risks and Fed rate cut bets act as a tailwind for the non-yielding commodity.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following an Asian session uptick to levels just above the $3,400 mark and turns lower for the second straight day on Tuesday. A modest US Dollar (USD) uptick is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity. The downside, however, seems limited amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates further in 2025. Meanwhile, an aerial war between Israel and Iran enters its fifth day, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict in the Middle East. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should contribute to limiting losses for the safe-haven Gold price. Traders might also opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday before placing fresh directional bets around the non-yielding yellow metal. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls seem reluctant amid modest USD uptick; downside seems cushionedIsrael struck Iran’s state-run television station on Monday, while Iran said that it is preparing for the largest and the most intense missile attack in history on Israeli soil. US President Donald Trump left the G7 Summit a day early because of the Middle East situation and has requested the National Security Council to convene in the Situation Room.Three tankers are reportedly on fire in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns of a possible repeat of the 2019 attacks attributed to Iran. This raises the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and assists the safe-haven Gold price to gain some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar edges higher amid repositioning trades ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting starting later today and acts as a headwind for the precious metal. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain the status quo and keep its benchmark rate unchanged amid concern that Trump's tariffs could push up consumer prices.Meanwhile, the USD uptick lacks bullish conviction on the back of rising bets that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. Hence, the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized closely for cues about the future rate-cut path. This, in turn, will help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD and the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Iran-Israel conflict might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven commodity. Gold price is more likely to attract dip-buyers near the lower ascending channel boundaryFrom a technical perspective, the formation of an ascending channel points to a well-established short-term uptrend. Adding to this, positive oscillators on the daily chart back the case for the emergence of dip-buying, which should help limit the downside for the Gold price near the $3,340-3,335 area, or the lower boundary of the trend channel. A convincing break below the latter would negate any near-term positive outlook and shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. On the flip side, the $3,400 round figure now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, above which the Gold price could climb to the $3,434-3,435 region. Some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the $3,451-3,452 area, or the multi-week top touched on Monday, should allow the Gold price to challenge the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April. The said handle coincides with the ascending channel barrier, which if cleared would pave the way for a further appreciating move. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:02 G7 statement says Iran can never have a nuclear weapon - AFP
G7 leaders attending a summit in Canada issue a joint statement calling for “de-escalation” on Iran. The G7 statement said that members have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.

06:55 AUD/JPY pares gains near 94.50 as BOJ holds rates steady
The AUD/JPY cross trims gains near 94.50 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision. Investors will closely monitor the BoJ Press Conference later on Tuesday.

06:46 EUR/JPY holds position near 167.50 after BoJ interest rate decision
EUR/JPY continues its winning streak that began on June 5, trading around 167.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair has marked 167.59, the highest since July 2024.

06:31 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.5%)
Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.5%)

05:53 NZD/USD remains steady near 0.6050 following Food Price Index data
NZD/USD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 0.6060 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. However, the pair moved little after the Food Price Index data was released by Statistics New Zealand.

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However, the pair moved little after the Food Price Index data was released by Statistics New Zealand.The annual food inflation in New Zealand climbed to 4.4% in May, from April’s 3.7% rise. The inflation has reached its highest level since December 2023, which further pressures household budgets. Meanwhile, the monthly food prices rose to 0.5%, from a 0.8% increase in April. The persistent food inflation could influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy outlook.The risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained ground as investors scaled back risk-off positions due to the possibility diminution of the Israel-Iran conflict. The shift in sentiment emerged after Iran reportedly asked many countries, including Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, to urge US President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel for an immediate ceasefire, per Reuters.Traders are closely watching for updates from the United States (US) following the recent posts from President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran, hours after urging the country's leaders to accept a deal to limit its nuclear program, as Israel hinted that attacks would continue, per Bloomberg.Trump posted in a social media post, “Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign.” “What a shame, and a waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran.” New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

05:17 Japanese Yen struggles to lure buyers; looks to BoJ policy update for fresh impetus
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the back foot against its American counterpart for the third consecutive day on Tuesday amid expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could postpone the rate hike to Q1 next year due to uncertainty over US tariff policy.

05:13 Australian Dollar weakens due to market caution amid ongoing geopolitical tensions
The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, retracing its recent gains registered in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair faces challenges as traders adopt caution amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

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The AUD/USD pair faces challenges as traders adopt caution amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.However, the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair gained ground due to optimism after Iran reportedly asked many countries, including Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, to urge US President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel for an immediate ceasefire, per Reuters. Moreover, risk sentiment improved as the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had agreed with Trump that their two nations should try to wrap up a deal on tariffs within 30 days.Traders await Australia’s upcoming labor data this week, including Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, which are expected to offer fresh impetus on the strength of the domestic economy and shape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook.Australian Dollar declines as US Dollar edges higher due to risk aversionThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading higher at around 98.20 at the time of writing. The US Retail Sales data for May will be eyed on Tuesday. The focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision, due on Wednesday.On Monday, President Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital, Tehran, hours after urging the country's leaders to accept a deal to limit its nuclear program, as Israel hinted that attacks would continue, per Bloomberg.Trump posted in a social media post, “What a shame, and a waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran. Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign.”The University of Michigan (UoM) reported on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 60.5 in June from 52.2 prior. This reading came in above the market consensus of 53.5.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 0.1% month-over-month in May, compared to a decline of 0.2% (revised from -0.5%). This reading came in softer than the expected 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1% MoM in May versus -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%), below the consensus of 0.3%.The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged within the 4.25%–4.50% range in its upcoming decision on Wednesday. Traders now expect a 25 basis point rate cut by September.Reuters reported Thursday that President Trump expanded steel tariffs starting June 23 on imported “steel derivative products,” including household appliances, such as dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. The tariffs were initially imposed at 25% in March and later doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time the scope of affected products has been expanded.China Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, surpassing the 5.0% expected and April’s 5.1% increase. Meanwhile, Industrial Production increased 5.8% YoY, but came in below the 5.9% forecast and 6.1% prior.Moreover, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China noted that the domestic economy is expected to have remained generally stable for the first half (H1) of 2025. However, economic growth in China may struggle since the second quarter due to uncertain trade policies.Australian Dollar falls to near nine-day EMA, tests 0.6500AUD/USD is trading around 0.6510 on Tuesday. The bullish bias prevails, as the daily chart’s technical analysis indicates that the pair remains within the ascending channel. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, suggesting a prevailing bullish outlook. Additionally, the pair is positioned above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is stronger.The pair may target the fresh seven-month high of 0.6552, which was reached on June 16. A break above this level could support the pair to target the eight-month high at 0.6687, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6730.On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may test the nine-day EMA at 0.6506, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6470. A break below the channel would indicate the weakening of the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6431.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.05% 0.04% 0.06% 0.04% 0.05% -0.06% 0.00% EUR -0.05% -0.03% 0.03% -0.03% 0.03% -0.02% -0.06% GBP -0.04% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% -0.04% -0.03% JPY -0.06% -0.03% 0.00% -0.03% -0.02% -0.11% -0.08% CAD -0.04% 0.03% -0.00% 0.03% -0.06% -0.01% -0.03% AUD -0.05% -0.03% -0.06% 0.02% 0.06% -0.07% -0.09% NZD 0.06% 0.02% 0.04% 0.11% 0.01% 0.07% -0.02% CHF -0.01% 0.06% 0.03% 0.08% 0.03% 0.09% 0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:47 WTI extends upside above $70.50 ahead of US Retail Sales release
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.60 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher amid persistent geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

04:22 Japan’s Kato says no plan for talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent at present
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that he has no fixed plan right now to hold further talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1746 vs. 7.1789 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1746 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1789 and 7.1820 Reuters estimate.

03:55 US and Japan fail to reach trade deal at G-7 summit
US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to reach a trade agreement on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit, per Bloomberg.

03:45 Iranian state broadcaster hit as Iran urges Trump to make Israel stop war - Reuters
On Monday, an Israeli attack targeted Iran's state broadcaster, while the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog reported substantial damage to Iran's largest uranium enrichment facility, and Iran urged the United States (US) to force a ceasefire in the aerial war, per Reuters.

03:27 USD/CAD drifts higher above 1.3550 on firmer US Dollar
The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground to around 1.3580 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as investors monitor the conflict between Israel and Iran for signs it could escalate into a broader regional conflict.

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Persistent Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to support the US Dollar. Traders await the US May Retail Sales data later on Tuesday for fresh impetus. The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground to around 1.3580 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as investors monitor the conflict between Israel and Iran for signs it could escalate into a broader regional conflict. Investors have been closely watching the developments surrounding geopolitical risks after Israel’s strike on Iran on Friday. The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to underpin the Greenback in the near term. Nonetheless, there was some optimism on Monday that the situation wouldn’t escalate after Iran reportedly asked several countries, including Saudi Arabia, to urge US President Donald Trump to put pressure on Israel for an immediate ceasefire. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday that he had agreed with Trump that their two nations should try to wrap up a deal on tariffs within 30 days. On the other hand, extended gains in Crude Oil prices might boost the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. The US May Retail Sales data will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the attention will shift to the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Based on the latest US inflation data, traders now see a nearly 80% possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, followed by another one in October, according to Reuters. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

02:56 Carney and Trump commit to reaching new trade agreement within 30 days - Reuters
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday that he had agreed with US President Donald Trump that their two nations should try to wrap up a deal on tariffs within 30 days, per Reuters.

02:50 GBP/USD hangs out near highs ahead of double-header central bank rate calls
GBP/USD continues to churn chart paper on the high end of 40-month peaks, cycling the 1.3600 region as Cable traders enjoy a continued boost. Greenback flows continue to wither across the board on geopolitical headlines, keeping the Pound Sterling buoyed as dual central bank rate calls loom ahead.

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Greenback flows continue to wither across the board on geopolitical headlines, keeping the Pound Sterling buoyed as dual central bank rate calls loom ahead.The Israel-Iran conflict continues to spill over, with both sides launching missile strikes at various targets and the Trump administration weighing the concept of getting involved directly in the altercation. Broad-market investor sentiment is banking on the two sides reaching some sort of peace arrangement before the altercation boils over into the surrounding region.The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) are both set to release their latest interest rate decisions; both central banks are expected to stand pat on interest rates, but the reactions from their government officials are expected to be wildly different.US President Donald Trump has gotten increasingly vocal about his wishlist to have the Fed start dropping interest rates, even as Fed policymakers hold in their “wait and see” stance as officials brace for economic fallout from Trump’s whipsaw tariff “strategy”. The BoE is likewise expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%, but no meaningful shifts in policy stances, or complaints about them, are expected. The Fed reveals its latest rate call on Wednesday, with the BoE slated for early Thursday.GBP/USD price forecastDespite cracking the ceiling and pushing into fresh multi-year peaks, GBP/USD is still too close to recent congestion for bulls to declare outright victory just yet. Cable could be poised for a fresh technical pullback, which would put price action on pace to fall back into a still-rising trendline from January’s lows near 1.2100. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:43 US President Donald Trump calls for Tehran evacuation - Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital Tehran on Monday, hours after urging the country's leaders to accept a deal to curb its nuclear program as Israel hinted that attacks would continue, per Bloomberg

02:00 Bank of Japan set to hold rates steady as officials mull halving the pace of tapering JGB purchases
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to leave the short-term interest rate unadjusted at 0.5% after the two-day June monetary policy review ends on Tuesday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of Japan is set to keep interest rates steady at 0.50% on Tuesday.The focus will be on the BoJ’s JGB purchases tapering plan as well as any hints on the timing of the next rate hike.The BoJ policy announcements are expected to significantly impact the Japanese Yen.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to leave the short-term interest rate unadjusted at 0.5% after the two-day June monetary policy review ends on Tuesday.In the absence of quarterly economic projections, all eyes will be on the BoJ’s plans on tapering its Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases and hints on the timing of the next interest rate hike. The BoJ policy announcements will likely stir volatility around the Japanese Yen (JPY).What to expect from the BoJ interest rate decision?The BoJ is set to extend the pause in its rate-hiking cycle into the third consecutive month in June, maintaining the policy rate at the highest level in 17 years.At its April 30-May 1 policy meeting, the Japanese central bank stuck to its rhetoric that it “will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts.”The bank also referred to the more volatile outlook due to US trade policy: “Uncertainty around tariff impact on the economy remains high even after tariffs are finalized.”Since then, trade tensions have eased, courtesy of the US-China truce and the prospects of US trade agreements with Japan and the European Union (EU)."If trade negotiations between countries proceed and uncertainty over trade policies diminish, overseas economies will resume a moderate growth path. That, in turn, will accelerate Japan's economic growth," Ueda said in a speech earlier this month, keeping hopes alive for another rate hike by year-end.Therefore, markets expect the BoJ Chief Ueda to lean slightly hawkish while speaking on the interest rate outlook during the post-policy meeting press conference at 6.30 GMT.Additionally, concerns over sticky food inflation, especially due to the rising costs of Japan’s staple rice, could prompt Ueda to deliver the hawkish message.“Japan was now experiencing a second round of food price inflation driven by supply shocks, which adds to inflationary momentum from higher wages,” Ueda said previously.Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation exceeded the BoJ's 2% target for over three years and hit a more than two-year high of 3.5% in April due largely to a 7% spike in food prices, per Reuters.Apart from the BoJ’s communication on the next interest rate move, markets will also closely scrutinize the central bank’s assessment of the bank’s current JGB tapering plan of JPY400 billion per quarter.According to a report carried by the Nikkei Asian Review last Saturday, the BoJ is considering halving the pace of quarterly tapering in its purchases of JGB to JPY200 billion ($1.4 billion) from April 2026.The BoJ’s tapering plan is expected to be supported by a majority of the policy board members, the Nikkei added.The potential reduction to the central bank’s tapering plan remains critical in light of the recent bond market turmoil when the yields on 40-year JGBs hit all-time highs.How could the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision affect USD/JPY?The USD/JPY pair continues to trade in a 250-pips familiar range at around 144.00 in the run-up to the BoJ event risk.If the BoJ maintains its rhetoric of remaining data-dependent and following the meeting-by-meeting approach for a policy move, the Japanese Yen (JPY) could come under intense selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD), driving USD/JPY back toward the 146.50 static resistance.Conversely, USD/JPY could resume its downtrend toward 142.00 if the BoJ voices concerns over stubborn rises in food costs and acknowledges easing trade tensions. The BoJ’s hawkish tilt could ramp up the odds of another rate hike by the turn of this year, triggering a fresh JPY rally.Any big reaction to the BoJ policy announcements could be temporary as Governor Ueda’s press conference could inject fresh volatility around the pair.From a technical perspective, Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The current market positioning suggests the USD/JPY remains exposed to two-way risks ahead of the BoJ’s decision. The pair is battling the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA confluence near the 144.00 region, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) challenging the midline to regain the bullish territory.”“A hawkish BoJ hold could provide a fresh leg to the USD/JPY downtrend, with the strong support area near 142.50 likely at risk. The next cushion is seen at the April 29 low at around 142.00. A decisive move below that level will target the 140.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, buyers need acceptance above the 145.00 round level to revive the uptrend toward the May 29 high of 146.29. Further up, the 100-day SMA at 147.24 will come into play,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 17, 2025 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 0.5% Previous: 0.5% Source: Bank of Japan Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

01:12 NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Surges above key resistance near 88.00
The NZD/JPY rallied sharply and posted gains of over 1%, trading at 87.69 after bouncing off daily lows of 86.56, clearing key technical resistance levels, as the pair seems poised to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high of 89.71.

00:18 EUR/USD rebounds as risk appetite returns despite Iran-Israel clash
EUR/USD recovered after posting a loss of 0.25% last Friday, as hostilities between Israel and Iran began, which boosted the Greenback’s appeal.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD climbs to 1.1572 as market shrugs off new missile attacks on Israel.Fed’s dovish shift in sentiment follows weak US Empire State Manufacturing data.ECB officials speak as traders await Fed’s June 18 policy decision and projections.EUR/USD recovered after posting a loss of 0.25% last Friday, as hostilities between Israel and Iran began, which boosted the Greenback’s appeal. Nevertheless, with both parties set to continue exchanging blows and a slightly diminished risk of turning into a regional conflict, an improvement in risk appetite underpins the shared currency.The EUR/USD trades at 1.1572, up 0.17%, after reaching a daily low of 1.1523. The Greenback trades on the back foot. A scarce economic docket in the United States (US) revealed that manufacturing activity in the New York area plunged to its weakest reading since March’s two-year low, indicating the ongoing economic slowdown.Meanwhile, the majority of the news headlines are focused on the Israel-Iran conflict, which is set to continue despite the White House exerting pressure on Tehran to reach a deal. Iranian state TV announced that a new wave of Iranian missile attacks on Israel has begun, targeting Tel Aviv and Haifa.Earlier, the Eurozone (EU) economic docket featured speakers from the European Central Bank (ECB), led by Vice-President Luis de Guindos and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. Other data showed that S&P affirmed Germany's creditworthiness at ‘AAA’ rating with a stable outlook.Market mood improved even though the Middle East conflict continued. Traders are watching the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision on June 18, followed by the press conference of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Alongside this, Fed officials would update their economic projections, which would be crucial in setting the path of monetary policy and could influence the direction of the EUR/USD.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD recovers as market sentiment improvesDespite retreating, EUR/USD appears poised to resume its uptrend as ECB officials have become slightly hawkish, and news has emerged that US-China talks could provide relief for investors. Nonetheless, an escalation of the Israel-Iran war exerts downward pressure on the pair.ECB’s De Guindos commented that the EUR/USD at 1.15 is not a big obstacle, as appreciation is not rapid and volatility is not extreme. He said that markets understood the ECB’s stance that the bank is close to target. He added that the risk of undershooting inflation is minimal and that risks of inflation are balanced.ECB’s Nagel said that it is not sensible to signal either a rate pause or cut, given the exceptional uncertainty.The New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index in June plummeted by 16 points, down from May’s -5.5 contraction, painting a gloomy economic outlook for the New York region.On Tuesday, US Retail Sales for May are expected to show a contraction of -0.7%, down from April’s 0.1% growth, as revealed by the US Census Bureau. If the data comes as expected, sales will dip to their second-lowest level after February’s -0.9% MoM reading.On June 17-18, the Fed will host its latest monetary policy meeting. Traders have priced in that rates would remain unchanged, but they’re eyeing the update of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).Across the pond, the EU economic docket will feature the ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment for June, which is projected to rise from 11.6 in May to 23.5 MoM.Financial market players do not expect that the ECB will reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the July monetary policy meeting.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD hovers above 1.1550, clings to gainsThe EUR/USD uptrend remains in place, though it is facing stiff resistance at 1.1600. Buyers' reluctance to decisively clear the latter has opened the door for a retracement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a lack of commitment among buyers, as the RSI, despite being bullish, dips toward its neutral line.If EUR/USD drops below 1.1550, the next support level would be 1.1500. If surpassed, the next stop would be the 1.1450 figure, followed by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1386.On the flip side, if EUR/USD holds above 1.1550, buyers could drive the exchange rate to 1.1614, the June 16 peak, ahead of 1.1600 to test the year-to-date (YTD) high at 1.1631. Up next lies 1.1700. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

00:00 South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) declined to -2.4% in May from previous 0.7%
South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) declined to -2.4% in May from previous 0.7%

00:00 South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY): -5% (May) vs previous -2.3%
South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY): -5% (May) vs previous -2.3%

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Forex News Timeline

20:01 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains afloat as fears mount Spot Gold set a weekly low of $3,366.25 on Tuesday, bouncing from the level yet in the American session.

19:25 US President Donald Trump: We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran United States (US) President Donald Trump is on the wires claiming the US has control of the skies over Iran through his social media platform, Truth Social.

19:15 USD/JPY firms as BoJ holds rates, Fed decision eyed The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, as the Greenback remained firm amid lingering Middle East tensions and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) status quo policy stance.

18:37 EC President von der Leyen: US trade negotiations are complex but we are advancing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday that trade talks between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are complex but added that they are advancing.

17:08 USD/CAD steadies as traders digest mixed US Retail Sales data ahead of the Fed The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is holding its ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with USD/CAD moving sideways near 1.3575.

17:00 United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0%) in April United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0%) in April

17:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (36) in June: Actual (32) United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (36) in June: Actual (32)

16:15 United States Capacity Utilization below expectations (77.7%) in May: Actual (77.4%) United States Capacity Utilization below expectations (77.7%) in May: Actual (77.4%)

16:15 United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (0.1%) in May United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (0.1%) in May

16:00 United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 4.7% to 5.2% in June 13 United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 4.7% to 5.2% in June 13

15:31 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities fell from previous $15.63B to $4.1B in April Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities fell from previous $15.63B to $4.1B in April

15:31 United States Import Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.1% to 0.2% in May United States Import Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.1% to 0.2% in May

15:31 United States Import Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.2%) in May: Actual (0%) United States Import Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.2%) in May: Actual (0%)

15:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-0.01B, above forecasts ($-2.94B) in April Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-0.01B, above forecasts ($-2.94B) in April

15:30 United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at -0.3% below forecasts (0.1%) in May United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at -0.3% below forecasts (0.1%) in May

15:30 United States Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 5.2% to 3.3% in May United States Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 5.2% to 3.3% in May

15:30 United States Export Price Index (YoY) down to 1.7% in May from previous 2% United States Export Price Index (YoY) down to 1.7% in May from previous 2%

15:30 United States Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (-0.7%) in May: Actual (-0.9%) United States Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (-0.7%) in May: Actual (-0.9%)

15:30 United States Export Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in May: Actual (-0.9%) United States Export Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in May: Actual (-0.9%)

15:03 JPY is remarkably quiet – Scotiabank Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Tuesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD), having faded its marginal BoJ-driven gain following the central bank’s policy decision, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

14:58 GBP soft and underperforming in quiet trade – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a modest 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) but underperforming all of the G10 currencies in relatively quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

14:54 EUR flat and ignoring stronger ZEW – Scotiabank Euro (EUR) is quietly trading within an incredibly tight range, consolidating in the mid-1.15s just below its recent multi-year highs, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

14:51 EUR/GBP remains close to the 0.8545 highs with downside attempts limited Euro buyers appeared on Monday to keep downside attempts limited at the 0.8500 area and the EUR/GBP’s immediate bullish trend intact.

14:48 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises near $3,400, remains supported by Middle East tensions Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.4% higher to near $3,400 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The yellow metal edges up as demand for safe-haven assets remains firm amid conflicts in the Middle East.

14:46 CAD holds minor gain on USD – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a mild outperformer on the session, catching a modest bid alongside the Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

14:38 Gold surges as Trump says he looks for a 'real end' to the Israel-Iran war Gold moves higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, trading around $3,395 at the time of writing, bolstered by an escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict and rising safe-haven demand.

14:37 USD trades mixed amid market uncertainty – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is trading narrowly mixed amid subdued FX turnover, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

13:58 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls are taking control, aiming for 145.35 and 146.00 The US Dollar is trading with minor gains against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, on track to complete a three-day winning streak.

13:56 US stock futures slump as Middle East conflict enters fifth day US stock index futures face a sharp selling pressure during European trading hours on Tuesday.

13:52 Australian Dollar holds firm amid Fed caution and Iran–Israel diplomatic push The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD pair holding comfortably within Monday’s trading range.

13:16 Natural Gas prices climb on fears of LNG disruption via Hormuz – ING European natural Gas prices rose to their highest level since early April on Monday, after jumping by 4.8% last Friday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

13:15 GBP/JPY returns above 196.30 after the post-BoJ reversal The Pound extended its reversal from Monday’s high at 196.85 after the Bank of Japan released its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, but, so far, the pair has remained steady above last week’s highs at 196.00.

13:14 Oil remains on edge – ING Oil prices are rising again after President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

12:58 S&P 500 rebounds from the 5960 support – Société Générale The S&P 500 is testing the resilience of its uptrend after rebounding from a key support level near 5960pts, with momentum indicators suggesting caution, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

12:35 EUR/JPY clears key resistance – Société Générale EUR/JPY extends gains after breaking out of a multi-month range, supported by bullish momentum and stable technical indicators, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

12:34 BoJ: Unchanged as expected – Commerzbank This morning, the Bank of Japan left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. This decision was anticipated by both economists and the market, and according to the BoJ, it was reached unanimously, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

12:33 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:18 USD/CAD falls toward 1.3550 due to higher Oil prices, Canada’s 10-year yield USD/CAD continues to lose ground for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.3560 during the European hours on Tuesday.

12:10 US President Trump: EU not yet offering a fair deal US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, “the European Union (EU) is not yet offering a fair deal.”

12:02 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index leaps to 47.5 in June vs. 35 expected The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index jumped to 47.5 in June from 25.2 in May, beating the market forecast of 35 by a wide margin.

12:01 Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment came in at 35.3, above expectations (23.5) in June Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment came in at 35.3, above expectations (23.5) in June

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above forecasts (35) in June: Actual (47.5) Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above forecasts (35) in June: Actual (47.5)

12:00 ECB’s Stournaras: Any further rate cuts will depend on data European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras said on Tuesday, “any further rate cuts will depend on data.”

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation above expectations (-74) in June: Actual (-72) Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation above expectations (-74) in June: Actual (-72)

11:51 USD/JPY: BoJ, geopolitics to drive price action – OCBC USD/JPY rose as Trump and PM Ishiba did not agree to a trade deal, while slightsigns of easing geopolitical tensions also saw some unwinding of JPY longs while market expectation for BoJ to stand pat kept the pair broadly supported.

11:48 USD: Trade versus geopolitical news – ING The situation in Israel and Iran has shown few signs of de-escalation, and while that is offering intermittent support to the dollar, it has so far failed to generate a major rebound in the greenback, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:40 EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.1510 and 1.160 – UOB Group Momentum indicators remain flattish; Euro (EUR) is expected to trade in a range against US Dollar (USD), likely between 1.1510 and 1.1605.

11:35 EUR: ZEW might underwhelm – ING EUR/USD price action is so far endorsing our call that markets are not ready to take the pair much above 1.160 just yet.

11:23 US Dollar Index (DXY) recovery loses steam above 98.00 despite the risk-off mood Fears of an escalating war between Israel and Iran are boosting demand for safe havens on Tuesday, but the US Dollar is failing to draw any significant support from the context.

11:00 Forex Today: Markets stabilize ahead of key central bank meetings Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, June 17:

10:57 EUR/JPY edges lower to near 167.00 following BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech EUR/JPY halts its winning streak that began on June 5, trading around 167.20 during the early European hours on Tuesday. Earlier in the Asian session, the pair reached 167.59, the highest level since July 2024.

10:33 NZD/USD clings to gains around 0.6065-0.6070, remains close to YTD peak ahead of US Retail Sales The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 0.6045 area on Tuesday and stalls the previous day's late pullback from its highest level since October 2024.

10:28 EUR/USD hesitates within previous ranges as risk appetite fades The EUR/USD pair is trading practically flat, halfway through the 1.1500 range on Tuesday.

09:37 BoJ's Ueda: Will respond nimbly in case of rapid rise in long-term interest rates Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo speaks at a press conference on Tuesday, explaining the Bank’s decision to hold the interest rate at 0.5% for the third straight meeting.

09:14 FX option expiries for Jun 17 NY cut FX option expiries for Jun 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $70.58 per barrel, up from Monday’s close at $70.06.

08:06 EUR/USD treads water above 1.1550, receives support from ECB-Fed policy divergence EUR/USD holds ground for the second successive session, trading around 1.1560 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair maintains its position near 1.1631, the highest since October 2021, reached on June 12.

08:02 GBP/JPY retreats from five-month high near 197.00 after BoJ’s policy decision The GBP/JPY pair falls back to near 196.15 during late Asian trading hours on Tuesday after posting a fresh five-month high around 196.85 earlier in the day.

07:56 USD/INR falls at open as de-escalating Israel-Iran conflict improves market sentiment The Indian Rupee (INR) rises to near 85.95 at the open against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday.

07:54 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Bearish bias remains unchanged near 98.00 The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades with mild losses near 98.10 during the early European session on Tuesday.

07:53 GBP/USD holds steady above mid-1.3500s ahead of UK CPI, Fed/BoE policy meetings The GBP/USD pair lacks any firm intraday directional bias and oscillates in a narrow trading band, above mid-1.3500s during the Asian session on Tuesday.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:31 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades below mid-$36.00s; bullish potential seems intact Silver (XAG/USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move for the third consecutive day and trades below mid-$36.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday.

07:02 G7 statement says Iran can never have a nuclear weapon - AFP G7 leaders attending a summit in Canada issue a joint statement calling for “de-escalation” on Iran. The G7 statement said that members have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.

06:46 EUR/JPY holds position near 167.50 after BoJ interest rate decision EUR/JPY continues its winning streak that began on June 5, trading around 167.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair has marked 167.59, the highest since July 2024.

06:31 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.5%) Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.5%)

05:53 NZD/USD remains steady near 0.6050 following Food Price Index data NZD/USD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 0.6060 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. However, the pair moved little after the Food Price Index data was released by Statistics New Zealand.

04:47 WTI extends upside above $70.50 ahead of US Retail Sales release West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.60 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher amid persistent geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

04:22 Japan’s Kato says no plan for talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent at present Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that he has no fixed plan right now to hold further talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1746 vs. 7.1789 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1746 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1789 and 7.1820 Reuters estimate.

03:55 US and Japan fail to reach trade deal at G-7 summit US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to reach a trade agreement on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit, per Bloomberg.

02:56 Carney and Trump commit to reaching new trade agreement within 30 days - Reuters Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday that he had agreed with US President Donald Trump that their two nations should try to wrap up a deal on tariffs within 30 days, per Reuters.

02:00 Bank of Japan set to hold rates steady as officials mull halving the pace of tapering JGB purchases The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to leave the short-term interest rate unadjusted at 0.5% after the two-day June monetary policy review ends on Tuesday.

00:18 EUR/USD rebounds as risk appetite returns despite Iran-Israel clash EUR/USD recovered after posting a loss of 0.25% last Friday, as hostilities between Israel and Iran began, which boosted the Greenback’s appeal.

00:00 South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) declined to -2.4% in May from previous 0.7% South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) declined to -2.4% in May from previous 0.7%

00:00 South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY): -5% (May) vs previous -2.3% South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY): -5% (May) vs previous -2.3%

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