Forex News Timeline
18:22 USD/CAD holds steady as US disinflation offsets Oil-driven Canadian Dollar support
USD/CAD trades around 1.3880 on Tuesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, amid mixed macroeconomic signals from the United States (US) and Canada-specific supportive factors.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CAD trades without a clear direction as US inflation data confirm a slow disinflation process.Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts ease after CPI data, modestly supporting the US Dollar.The Canadian Dollar draws support from higher Oil prices, limiting moves in the pair.USD/CAD trades around 1.3880 on Tuesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, amid mixed macroeconomic signals from the United States (US) and Canada-specific supportive factors.The latest data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms that US inflation continues to cool at a gradual but still incomplete pace. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% YoY in December, matching the previous month’s reading and market expectations. However, the core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, remained unchanged at 2.6% on an annual basis, falling short of expectations for a slight uptick. On a monthly basis, headline inflation increased by 0.3%, while core inflation rose by 0.2%, with shelter costs remaining the main driver of monthly price pressures.These figures reinforce the view that the disinflation process is ongoing, strengthening expectations for a more gradual monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets now assign nearly a 95% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting.US labor market indicators are also sending mixed signals. Data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) show that the four-week average of private-sector job gains edged up to 11,750 jobs per week in mid-December, from 11,000 previously. This suggests that job creation remains positive but modest, insufficient to fully dispel concerns about an economic slowdown.On the Canadian side, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) finds support from higher Oil prices. As Canada is the largest Crude exporter to the United States, energy prices remain a key driver for the currency. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil prices extend gains for a fourth consecutive day, trading around $61 per barrel, supported by supply concerns, partly linked to rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Market participants are also awaiting the release of the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly Crude Oil stockpiles report, due later in the day, which could further influence energy market sentiment.In this environment, the balance between US inflation data that tempers expectations for rapid Fed easing and Oil-driven support for the CAD helps keep USD/CAD in a consolidation phase, in the absence of a strong near-term catalyst. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.25% 0.27% 0.64% 0.10% 0.55% 0.50% 0.47% EUR -0.25% 0.03% 0.39% -0.15% 0.30% 0.25% 0.22% GBP -0.27% -0.03% 0.34% -0.17% 0.28% 0.23% 0.19% JPY -0.64% -0.39% -0.34% -0.51% -0.06% -0.12% -0.14% CAD -0.10% 0.15% 0.17% 0.51% 0.45% 0.40% 0.37% AUD -0.55% -0.30% -0.28% 0.06% -0.45% -0.05% -0.08% NZD -0.50% -0.25% -0.23% 0.12% -0.40% 0.05% -0.03% CHF -0.47% -0.22% -0.19% 0.14% -0.37% 0.08% 0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
18:06 USD/JPY rises toward 159.00 as Dollar firms after US inflation data
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens further against the US Dollar on Tuesday as the Greenback strengthens following the release of the latest US inflation report. USD/JPY trades around 159.00 at the time of writing, hovering near levels last seen in July 2024.
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USD/JPY trades around 159.00 at the time of writing, hovering near levels last seen in July 2024.According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% MoM in December, matching market expectations and unchanged from November. On an annual basis, headline inflation held steady at 2.7%, also in line with forecasts.Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2% MoM, coming in below expectations of 0.3% and matching the previous month’s reading. On a yearly basis, core inflation stood at 2.6%, undershooting the 2.7% market forecast and unchanged from November.From a monetary policy perspective, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target but shows little sign of re-accelerating, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will stick to a gradual easing path.Combined with last week’s mixed US labour-market data, the report has strengthened the case for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, with markets widely expecting a prolonged pause through the first quarter.US President Donald Trump reiterated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the inflation release. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the inflation numbers were ‘great’ and again labelled Powell ‘Too Late,’ urging the Fed to cut interest rates.”Trump’s remarks come at a sensitive time as concerns over the central bank's independence have intensified following reports of a criminal investigation linked to Powell’s testimony on the Fed’s headquarters renovation.Traders also parsed comments from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, who struck a cautious tone on the monetary policy outlook. Musalem said he sees ‘little reason for further easing of policy in the near term,’ adding that policy is ‘well positioned to balance risks on both sides.’ While he described the latest inflation reading as encouraging for views that inflation will converge toward 2% this year.Beyond US-driven moves, the Yen has also remained under pressure from domestic factors. Political uncertainty in Japan has intensified after reports suggested Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may dissolve the lower house and call a snap general election as early as February.The prospect of an early vote has fueled expectations of looser fiscal policy and heavier political spending, reviving concerns over Japan’s already large debt burden. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.13% 0.18% 0.49% 0.02% 0.43% 0.33% 0.30% EUR -0.13% 0.05% 0.39% -0.11% 0.30% 0.20% 0.20% GBP -0.18% -0.05% 0.32% -0.16% 0.25% 0.15% 0.15% JPY -0.49% -0.39% -0.32% -0.47% -0.06% -0.17% -0.17% CAD -0.02% 0.11% 0.16% 0.47% 0.42% 0.31% 0.30% AUD -0.43% -0.30% -0.25% 0.06% -0.42% -0.10% -0.11% NZD -0.33% -0.20% -0.15% 0.17% -0.31% 0.10% -0.01% CHF -0.30% -0.20% -0.15% 0.17% -0.30% 0.11% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
17:49 Fed's Musalem: Fed policy near neutral as growth outlook remains solid
Fed’s Musalem (St Louis) said the US economy is likely to grow at or above its potential in 2026, helped by fiscal support and the lagged effects of earlier rate cuts.
Fed’s Musalem (St Louis) said the US economy is likely to grow at or above its potential in 2026, helped by fiscal support and the lagged effects of earlier rate cuts. He noted that inflation remains closer to 3% than 2% but is expected to ease over the year, arguing that policy is now around neutral and well positioned to respond in either direction as the labour market continues to cool in an orderly way.Key QuotesI expect the economy to grow at or above potential in 2026.
Inflation is closer to 3% than 2%, but we anticipate it will ebb this year; the labour market is cooling in an orderly way.
Policy is in a good place to react in any direction.
Supported december rate cut because they saw a slightly higher risk to the labour market, moderating the risk of accelerating inflation.
Today's inflation rate is encouraging for views that it will converge more towards 2% this year.
Monetary policy is now right around neutral.
See little reason for further easing of policy in the near term.
Materialising job market risks or a faster fall in inflation might make more cuts appropriate.
Unemployment rate is around the neutral rate of unemployment right now, with job growth around the breakeven point of 30K to 80K per month.
Unemployment claims, layoff announcements, and other metrics suggest the labour market is resilient.
There are robust tailwinds, including fiscal and lagged impacts of rate cuts, to spur growth.
Still see the risk that inflation will be more persistent than expected.
Goods and housing inflation should ease over the year.
It is inadvisable to have an accommodative policy at this point.
Hopeful that the US is in a higher productivity regime, but it's too early to call it.
The Fed should not "outsource" its rate decisions to assumptions about productivity.
Companies are expressing "cautious optimism" about the economic outlook; consumption is "resilient", and labour markets are "normalised".
The Fed is committed to returning inflation to 2%.
The candidates for next Fed chair are all highly qualified.
The Fed operates on a regime of open debate and evidence; that won't change under a new chair.
Don't expect the Fed's reaction function to change much under the new chair, given the breadth of opinion among 19 policymakers.
There are deeper issues around housing affordability and supply than mortgage interest rates.
QE is about removing duration; bill purchases right now are very short term.
Current situation stops well short of fiscal dominance or financing the government.
Inflation is closer to 3% than 2%, but we anticipate it will ebb this year; the labour market is cooling in an orderly way.
Policy is in a good place to react in any direction.
Supported december rate cut because they saw a slightly higher risk to the labour market, moderating the risk of accelerating inflation.
Today's inflation rate is encouraging for views that it will converge more towards 2% this year.
Monetary policy is now right around neutral.
See little reason for further easing of policy in the near term.
Materialising job market risks or a faster fall in inflation might make more cuts appropriate.
Unemployment rate is around the neutral rate of unemployment right now, with job growth around the breakeven point of 30K to 80K per month.
Unemployment claims, layoff announcements, and other metrics suggest the labour market is resilient.
There are robust tailwinds, including fiscal and lagged impacts of rate cuts, to spur growth.
Still see the risk that inflation will be more persistent than expected.
Goods and housing inflation should ease over the year.
It is inadvisable to have an accommodative policy at this point.
Hopeful that the US is in a higher productivity regime, but it's too early to call it.
The Fed should not "outsource" its rate decisions to assumptions about productivity.
Companies are expressing "cautious optimism" about the economic outlook; consumption is "resilient", and labour markets are "normalised".
The Fed is committed to returning inflation to 2%.
The candidates for next Fed chair are all highly qualified.
The Fed operates on a regime of open debate and evidence; that won't change under a new chair.
Don't expect the Fed's reaction function to change much under the new chair, given the breadth of opinion among 19 policymakers.
There are deeper issues around housing affordability and supply than mortgage interest rates.
QE is about removing duration; bill purchases right now are very short term.
Current situation stops well short of fiscal dominance or financing the government.
17:48 GBP/USD flat near 1.3450 as softer US CPI revives 2026 Fed cut bets
The British Pound turns negative on the day, yet it remains near its Tuesday’s opening price after the latest inflation report in the US indicates that the Federal Reserve could continue to ease policy in 2026. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3450, down 0.03%.
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The GBP/USD trades at 1.3450, down 0.03%.Sterling holds steady as US inflation cools, expectations for further Fed easing increaseThe US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December increased 0.3% MoM but, in the twelve months through December, CPI rose 2.7% unchanged when compared to November’s print. Core CPI for the same period was unchanged at 0.2% MoM, and on an annual basis was below estimates of 2.7%, at 2.6%.Although the data was positive, market participants do not expect a Fed rate cut in the January meeting, following the clash between the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the Trump administration.Money markets had priced in nearly 50 basis points of interest rate cuts by the Fed, towards the end of 2026, according to Prime Market Terminal.Fed interest rate probabilities - Source: Prime Market TerminalMeanwhile, the St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem is crossing the wires. He said the economy is expected to grow at or above potential, reiterating that inflation is closer to 3% than 2%, but would ebb this year. Musalem added that policy is in good place and supported a December cut “because saw slightly higher risk to labor market.”Regarding the UK, the economic docket is absent with traders waiting for the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on Thursday. The GDP in Britain is projected to remain unchanged at 0% in November, which would be an improvement compared to October’s -0.1% contraction.In the US, Wednesday’s schedule will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) for October and November, along with Retail Sales data for November.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/USD daily chart shows the pair is consolidating at around the 1.3390-1.3498 area, capped on the upside by the 1.35 figure, and by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3388.For a bullish continuation, traders must clear 1.3500, to challenge the next cycle high at 1.3567, the yearly peak. Up next lies 1.3700. Conversely, if bears push prices below 1.3400, expect a test of the 200-day SMA, with further downside seen at the 100-day SMA at 1.3369.GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.15% -0.32% 0.56% -0.22% -0.01% -0.25% -0.11% EUR 0.15% -0.18% 0.78% -0.04% 0.14% -0.10% 0.04% GBP 0.32% 0.18% 0.94% 0.12% 0.32% 0.08% 0.23% JPY -0.56% -0.78% -0.94% -0.80% -0.60% -0.83% -0.69% CAD 0.22% 0.04% -0.12% 0.80% 0.19% -0.03% 0.11% AUD 0.01% -0.14% -0.32% 0.60% -0.19% -0.23% -0.10% NZD 0.25% 0.10% -0.08% 0.83% 0.03% 0.23% 0.13% CHF 0.11% -0.04% -0.23% 0.69% -0.11% 0.10% -0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Jan 13, 2026 13:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2.7% Consensus: 2.7% Previous: 2.7% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
17:16 EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Sellers retain control below key SMAs
The Euro (EUR) recovers modestly against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, trimming earlier losses after attracting dip-buying interest near the 0.8650 region.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP trims earlier losses as dip buyers emerge near the 0.8650 region.A quiet macro calendar on both sides of the Channel keeps trading subdued.The broader technical structure remains bearish, with the pair trading near multi-month lows.The Euro (EUR) recovers modestly against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, trimming earlier losses after attracting dip-buying interest near the 0.8650 region. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP trades around 0.8664, holding close to multi-month lows amid a thin economic calendar on both sides of the Channel.From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP remains within a well-defined downward-sloping channel that has guided price action since November 2025, keeping the broader bias tilted to the downside.The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has slipped below the 50-day SMA, and both are trending lower, underscoring persistent selling pressure.On the upside, the 0.8700 psychological level caps immediate recovery attempts. A sustained break above this zone would shift focus toward the upper boundary of the descending channel, which aligns closely with the 21-day SMA. A clear move beyond this confluence would start to weaken the bearish structure and allow for a deeper corrective bounce.On the downside, a decisive break below the 0.8650 region would strengthen bearish momentum and increase the risk of a continuation toward the 0.8600 handle, a level last seen in August 2025.Momentum indicators are showing early signs of stabilization. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the signal line and the zero level, but the flattening histogram points to fading downside momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 34 after recovering from oversold territory, suggesting scope for near-term consolidation. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
17:02 United States New Home Sales (MoM) declined to 0.738M in September from previous 0.8M
United States New Home Sales (MoM) declined to 0.738M in September from previous 0.8M
17:01 United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) came in at 47.2 below forecasts (48.2) in January
United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) came in at 47.2 below forecasts (48.2) in January
17:00 United States New Home Sales (MoM) registered at 0.737M above expectations (0.71M) in October
United States New Home Sales (MoM) registered at 0.737M above expectations (0.71M) in October
17:00 United States New Home Sales (MoM) down to 0.737M in September from previous 0.8M
United States New Home Sales (MoM) down to 0.737M in September from previous 0.8M
16:56 JPY hits lowest since July 2024 on snap election speculation – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) fell 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD), underperforming all G10 currencies, as speculation over PM Takaichi’s snap election drove renewed selling and pushed USD/JPY toward levels last seen in early 2025, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) fell 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD), underperforming all G10 currencies, as speculation over PM Takaichi’s snap election drove renewed selling and pushed USD/JPY toward levels last seen in early 2025, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USD/JPY eyes 160-162 as market assesses Takaichi plans"The yen is weak, down 0.5% vs .the USD and underperforming all of the G10 currencies with a clear extension of its latest bearish break and push through levels last seen in early 2025 to reach lows not seen since July 2024. Domestic developments are bearish as market participants assess the resurgence of political uncertainty amid reports of PM Takaichi’s plans to call a snap election.""The PM’s high approval ratings appear to be motivating this decision as she would seek to strengthen her mandate and secure a single party majority. Takaichi is a fiscal and monetary dove, and Japanese bond yields have surged in response to these latest developments.""The one-sided nature of the latest selloff in the yen is somewhat concerning and may prompt verbal intervention from the ministry of finance. Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama is said to have already spoken to Treasury Secretary Bessent. For USD/JPY, we now look to the psychologically important 160 level and the July 2024 high just below 162."
16:44 EUR/USD consolidates after Monday’s reversal attempt – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is trading flat to the US Dollar (USD) and consolidating in a tight range following Monday’s attempt at a bullish reversal of the pullback from mid/late December, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
The Euro (EUR) is trading flat to the US Dollar (USD) and consolidating in a tight range following Monday’s attempt at a bullish reversal of the pullback from mid/late December, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Sentiment drives Euro amid stable short-term rates"Short-term rate expectations look to be finding some stabilization following their recent pullback, and spreads (vs. the US) are doing much of the same. EUR continues to be driven by sentiment as we note the strong correlation to movement in risk reversal, currently at 0.9 on a 21 day rolling basis." "Short-and medium-term technical signals are neutral, as reflected in an RSI that continues to hover around the 50 threshold and a broader flat range that has defined much of the EUR’s price action since June." "The recent pullback looks to have been halted by support at the 50 day MA (1.1657) and the local range looks to be defined by support at 1.1620 and 1.1800. We look to a near -term range bound between 1.1620 and 1.1720."
16:25 USD/CHF trades mixed as US inflation, Fed independence concerns weigh on Dollar
USD/CHF trades around 0.7980 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day, but off its intraday high following the release of US inflation data.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}US headline CPI comes in line with expectations, while core inflation softened modestly.Tensions surrounding Fed independence continue to weigh on the US Dollar.The Swiss Franc benefits from geopolitical and institutional uncertainty.USD/CHF trades around 0.7980 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day, but off its intraday high following the release of US inflation data. The pair reacted moderately to the macroeconomic figures, as markets remain torn between inflation data, which remains stable, and a political backdrop that continues to weigh on the US Dollar (USD).The US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% YoY in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), matching November’s increase and fully in line with market forecasts. However, core Consumer Price Index, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, remained unchanged at 2.6% on an annual basis, missing expectations of an increase to 2.7%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI increased by 0.3%, while core CPI rose by 0.2%. The report highlights that shelter costs remain the main driver of monthly inflation, while food and energy prices also recorded moderate increases.These figures reinforce the view of a gradual but incomplete disinflation process, leaving limited room for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to quickly alter its monetary policy path. Markets are now pricing in around a 95% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, while expectations for a rate cut as early as March have dropped sharply in recent days, according to the CME FedWatch tool.At the same time, labor market indicators are sending mixed signals. The four-week average of weekly private employment changes reported by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) edged up to 11,750 jobs per week in mid-December, from 11,000 previously. This confirms that job creation in the US private sector remains positive, but at a modest pace, insufficient to fully dispel concerns about an economic slowdown.The US Dollar, however, remains undermined by non-economic factors. Reports of a criminal investigation targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell have reignited concerns about the central bank’s independence. This situation is part of a long-running conflict between US President Donald Trump and the Fed Chair, fueling institutional unease that weighs on monetary policy credibility. Several major central banks have issued a joint statement in support of Jerome Powell, underlining the importance of central bank independence.Credit rating agencies are closely monitoring developments. Fitch Ratings recalled that Federal Reserve independence is a key pillar supporting the US sovereign rating, while S&P Global Ratings also stressed that Fed credibility is a cornerstone of US institutional strength. These statements contribute to keeping a political risk premium embedded in the US Dollar.In this environment, the Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to benefit from sustained safe-haven demand, driven by both geopolitical tensions and doubts surrounding US monetary governance. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% -0.02% 0.48% -0.05% 0.05% 0.01% 0.07% EUR 0.01% -0.01% 0.50% -0.04% 0.05% 0.03% 0.08% GBP 0.02% 0.00% 0.51% -0.03% 0.06% 0.04% 0.09% JPY -0.48% -0.50% -0.51% -0.52% -0.42% -0.46% -0.40% CAD 0.05% 0.04% 0.03% 0.52% 0.10% 0.06% 0.12% AUD -0.05% -0.05% -0.06% 0.42% -0.10% -0.03% -0.00% NZD -0.01% -0.03% -0.04% 0.46% -0.06% 0.03% 0.06% CHF -0.07% -0.08% -0.09% 0.40% -0.12% 0.00% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
16:21 Platinum rises but remains below December record – Commerzbank
Platinum prices surged alongside Gold and Silver, narrowing its undervaluation relative to Gold, with the Gold/Platinum ratio now just under 2, a level last seen in June 2023, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Platinum prices surged alongside Gold and Silver, narrowing its undervaluation relative to Gold, with the Gold/Platinum ratio now just under 2, a level last seen in June 2023, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Industrial demand limits further Platinum upside"The price of Platinum also rose sharply in the wake of Gold and silver. However, Platinum has not yet returned to the record level of $2,490 per troy ounce reached at the end of December. The Gold/Platinum ratio is now just under 2, which was last the case in June 2023. The Platinum price has thus significantly reduced its undervaluation relative to the Gold price." "Further catching up with Gold is likely to become more difficult from now on, as Platinum, unlike Gold, is not a safe haven but is mainly dependent on industrial demand and thus on economic developments. In addition, according to the World Platinum Investment Council's forecast, the Platinum market is no longer likely to be undersupplied this year. Following the sharp rise in Platinum prices, we see only limited upside potential." "The Platinum price should be trading at $2,600 by the middle of the year and $2,700 by the end of the year. This also applies to Palladium, whose price reached a three-year high of just over $1,980 per troy ounce at the end of December. Due to weakening demand from the automotive industry, by far the most important sector for Palladium demand, the upside potential for Palladium is likely to be even more limited. We expect the price of Palladium to reach $2,000 by mid-year and $2,100 by the end of 2026."
16:17 EUR/USD consolidates as US inflation data reinforce cautious Fed outlook
The Euro (EUR) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as traders show a limited reaction to the latest US inflation data. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1667, as the Greenback softens modestly.
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16:14 CAD little changed amid firmer USD and MXN gains – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading little changed on the day. Along with a minor gain for the MXN and the generally firmer USD, there is a mild bid for North American FX across markets, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading little changed on the day. Along with a minor gain for the MXN and the generally firmer USD, there is a mild bid for North American FX across markets, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Oil rebound supports slight lift in Canadian Dollar"Oil prices are up a solid 1%+ and sentiment appears more bullish as tension in Iran grow and President Trump threatens to tariff countries trading with Tehran. The CAD’s recent performance has been dampened by the soft tone of energy prices and subdued terms of trade." "It’s probably no coincidence that our fair value estimate for the CAD (1.3824) has strengthened for the first time in a week or so this morning as oil prices firm up. Spot formed an inside range session on the daily chart yesterday, suggesting the USD rebound that developed over the turn of the year has stalled." "The net loss for the USD on Monday tilts technical risks mildly bearish at least. Intraday price action so far adds to the impression of a top/reversal developing above the 1.39 point where we now expect firm resistance. USD losses through 1.3860/70 may prompt a drop back to the low 1.38s over the next day or two."
15:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY) fell from previous 7.1% to 5.7% in January 9
United States Redbook Index (YoY) fell from previous 7.1% to 5.7% in January 9
15:32 ADP Employment Change 4-week average edges higher in late December
ADP Employment Change Weekly in the United States (US) rises to 11,750 per week on average for the four weeks ending December 27, from 11,500 previously, according to Automatic Data Processing (ADP).
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ADP Employment Change Weekly in the United States (US) rises to 11,750 per week on average for the four weeks ending December 27, from 11,500 previously, according to Automatic Data Processing (ADP). The data confirms that job creation in the US private sector remains positive, although the pace of hiring stays relatively modest.Since the start of 2025, the indicator has averaged 2,320, with an all-time high of 17,500 recorded in November and a record low of -11,750 thousand over the same period. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.05% -0.12% 0.35% -0.10% -0.04% -0.10% 0.03% EUR 0.05% -0.06% 0.37% -0.08% 0.00% -0.07% 0.05% GBP 0.12% 0.06% 0.41% 0.02% 0.11% 0.02% 0.13% JPY -0.35% -0.37% -0.41% -0.38% -0.30% -0.38% -0.24% CAD 0.10% 0.08% -0.02% 0.38% 0.07% -0.00% 0.11% AUD 0.04% -0.01% -0.11% 0.30% -0.07% -0.09% 0.04% NZD 0.10% 0.07% -0.02% 0.38% 0.00% 0.09% 0.13% CHF -0.03% -0.05% -0.13% 0.24% -0.11% -0.04% -0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Market reactionThe report had no significant impact on the US Dollar (USD), with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 99.00 at the time of writing, up 0.15% on the day, and EUR/USD fluctuating around 1.1650, down 0.10% on the day, as investors await US CPI data. Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change 4-week average The preliminary ADP weekly estimate, released by Automatic Data Processing Inc, provides a four-week moving average of the latest total private-employment change in the US. Generally, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Jan 13, 2026 13:15 Frequency: Weekly Actual: 11.75K Consensus: - Previous: 11.5K Source: ADP Research Institute Why it matters to traders? The ADP weekly report provides the change in private sector employment, offering the most current view of the labor market based on ADP's fine-grained, high-frequency data. Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America's largest payrolls provider, as the harbringer of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of Nonfarm Payrolls.
15:31 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) dipped from previous 324.122 to 324.054 in December
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) dipped from previous 324.122 to 324.054 in December
15:31 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a up to 331.86 in December from previous 331.07
United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a up to 331.86 in December from previous 331.07
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) down to 324.054 in December from previous 324.122
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) down to 324.054 in December from previous 324.122
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.7%) in December
United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.7%) in December
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.3%) in December
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.3%) in December
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in December
United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in December
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 2.6%, below expectations (2.7%) in December
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 2.6%, below expectations (2.7%) in December
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) fell from previous 324.122 to 324.05 in December
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) fell from previous 324.122 to 324.05 in December
15:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) below expectations (-6.5%) in November: Actual (-13.1%)
Canada Building Permits (MoM) below expectations (-6.5%) in November: Actual (-13.1%)
15:18 United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 11.75K (December 27) vs 11.5K
United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 11.75K (December 27) vs 11.5K
15:07 GBP/JPY extends gains as political uncertainty in Japan weighs on the Yen
The British Pound (GBP) pushes higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday, supported by broad-based Yen weakness as political developments in Japan weigh on sentiment.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY extends gains as broad-based Yen weakness persists amid rising political uncertainty in Japan.Snap election speculation fuels fiscal concerns, pushing JGB yields to fresh 27-year highs.Markets look ahead to Japan’s PPI and key UK economic releases later this week.The British Pound (GBP) pushes higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday, supported by broad-based Yen weakness as political developments in Japan weigh on sentiment. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 213.82, up about 0.40% on the day, holding close to levels last seen in July 2008.The Yen’s underperformance follows reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering dissolving the lower house and calling a snap general election as early as February. The prospect of an early vote has lifted expectations of looser fiscal policy and increased political spending, as investors grow wary of Japan’s already large debt load.Expectations of increased stimulus and heavier debt issuance have rippled through Japan’s bond market, with the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield climbing to around 2.166%, its highest level in 27 years.This development is also complicating the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy outlook. Elevated political uncertainty and rising fiscal risks could delay the timing of the next rate increase, as the central bank proceeds cautiously with policy normalisation.In FX markets, the reaction has been a renewed wave of Yen selling, with USD/JPY near one-and-a-half-year highs and the Yen falling to fresh all-time lows against both the Euro (EUR) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The renewed bout of broad-based weakness has revived talk of potential intervention, as authorities in Tokyo continue to warn against excessive and one-sided FX moves.The Japanese economic docket is relatively light this week, keeping the focus on political risk and FX flows. Attention will turn to Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) release.In the United Kingdom (UK), Retail Sales growth slowed at the end of last year. Data released by the British Retail Consortium showed that Retail Sales rose 1.0% YoY on a like-for-like basis in December 2025, marking the weakest pace in seven months. The reading came in above market expectations for a 0.6% increase but eased from the previous month’s 1.2% rise.Looking ahead, attention will turn to a heavy slate of UK economic releases on Thursday, with monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures taking centre stage. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.08% 0.01% 0.43% 0.00% 0.19% 0.12% 0.15% EUR -0.08% -0.06% 0.35% -0.08% 0.10% 0.04% 0.07% GBP -0.01% 0.06% 0.38% -0.02% 0.17% 0.10% 0.13% JPY -0.43% -0.35% -0.38% -0.42% -0.23% -0.31% -0.27% CAD -0.00% 0.08% 0.02% 0.42% 0.18% 0.11% 0.14% AUD -0.19% -0.10% -0.17% 0.23% -0.18% -0.07% -0.06% NZD -0.12% -0.04% -0.10% 0.31% -0.11% 0.07% 0.03% CHF -0.15% -0.07% -0.13% 0.27% -0.14% 0.06% -0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
15:03 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ up to $763.9B from previous $752.6B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ up to $763.9B from previous $752.6B
14:38 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie eases to 0.6700 after failure at at 0.6725
The Australian Dollar remains trading within previous ranges against its US counterpart, as the pair’s recovery from the 0.6660 area was capped at 0.6725 on Monday before pulling back to 0.6700.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/USD trims gains and dips to 0.6700 after rejection at a reverse trendline around 0.6725.The lower high and bearish divergence in the 4-hour RSI point to a trend reversal.Price action is completing the right shoulder of a potential H&S pattern.The Australian Dollar remains trading within previous ranges against its US counterpart, as the pair’s recovery from the 0.6660 area was capped at 0.6725 on Monday before pulling back to 0.6700. The Greenback is trading moderately higher on Tuesday, as investors brace for the US inflation report due later today.
U.S. consumer prices are expected to have grown at a steady 2.7% year-on-year pace in December. Core inflation, however, is forecasted to have accelerated to 2.7% from 2.6% in November. Barring a surprise, these figures are likely to strengthen the case for a steady Federal Reserve (Fed) policy in the coming months and provide support to the USD.Technical Analysis: Key support, at 0.6560, remains in play
In the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6703, with technical indicators showing a fading bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 49 and highlights a bearish divergence with recent price action. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers around the zero line with a slight positive tilt, reinforcing a neutral tone.Monday's rejection at the reverse trendline, near 0.6725, adds to the case of a potential bearish Head & Shoulder's pattern, a common figure to anticipate trend reversals. This figure would be confirmed on the breach of the neckline, at 0.6660 (December 31, January 5 low), adding pressure towards the December 18 low, at 0.6595.On the upside, bulls should break above the confluence of Monday's high and the reverse trendline, in the area of 0.6730 now, to resume the broader bullish trend and shift the focus towards the three-month high, 0.6770, hit last week.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% -0.04% 0.46% 0.00% 0.18% 0.10% 0.11% EUR -0.00% -0.03% 0.46% 0.01% 0.17% 0.10% 0.11% GBP 0.04% 0.03% 0.49% 0.05% 0.22% 0.14% 0.14% JPY -0.46% -0.46% -0.49% -0.44% -0.27% -0.36% -0.34% CAD -0.01% -0.01% -0.05% 0.44% 0.17% 0.08% 0.09% AUD -0.18% -0.17% -0.22% 0.27% -0.17% -0.08% -0.06% NZD -0.10% -0.10% -0.14% 0.36% -0.08% 0.08% 0.00% CHF -0.11% -0.11% -0.14% 0.34% -0.09% 0.06% -0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
U.S. consumer prices are expected to have grown at a steady 2.7% year-on-year pace in December. Core inflation, however, is forecasted to have accelerated to 2.7% from 2.6% in November. Barring a surprise, these figures are likely to strengthen the case for a steady Federal Reserve (Fed) policy in the coming months and provide support to the USD.Technical Analysis: Key support, at 0.6560, remains in play
In the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6703, with technical indicators showing a fading bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 49 and highlights a bearish divergence with recent price action. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers around the zero line with a slight positive tilt, reinforcing a neutral tone.Monday's rejection at the reverse trendline, near 0.6725, adds to the case of a potential bearish Head & Shoulder's pattern, a common figure to anticipate trend reversals. This figure would be confirmed on the breach of the neckline, at 0.6660 (December 31, January 5 low), adding pressure towards the December 18 low, at 0.6595.On the upside, bulls should break above the confluence of Monday's high and the reverse trendline, in the area of 0.6730 now, to resume the broader bullish trend and shift the focus towards the three-month high, 0.6770, hit last week.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% -0.04% 0.46% 0.00% 0.18% 0.10% 0.11% EUR -0.00% -0.03% 0.46% 0.01% 0.17% 0.10% 0.11% GBP 0.04% 0.03% 0.49% 0.05% 0.22% 0.14% 0.14% JPY -0.46% -0.46% -0.49% -0.44% -0.27% -0.36% -0.34% CAD -0.01% -0.01% -0.05% 0.44% 0.17% 0.08% 0.09% AUD -0.18% -0.17% -0.22% 0.27% -0.17% -0.08% -0.06% NZD -0.10% -0.10% -0.14% 0.36% -0.08% 0.08% 0.00% CHF -0.11% -0.11% -0.14% 0.34% -0.09% 0.06% -0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
14:11 JPY drops to weakest since July 2024 – ING
The Japanese Yen (JPY) fell 0.5% to 158.91 per US Dollar (USD), hitting its weakest level since July 2024, as speculation of a snap election under PM Takaichi triggered renewed selling, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) fell 0.5% to 158.91 per US Dollar (USD), hitting its weakest level since July 2024, as speculation of a snap election under PM Takaichi triggered renewed selling, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.US-Japan yield gap and outflows pressure yen"The yen fell 0.5% to 158.91 per dollar, its weakest since July 2024, as speculation that Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi may call a snap election triggered renewed selling. The move surpassed January’s low of 158.87 and intensified concerns over potential intervention, with Japanese officials warning against excessive and speculative FX moves." "Persistent US-Japan yield gaps, negative real rates, and capital outflows continue to weigh on the currency, with a potential slide above 160 USD/JPY. Intervention risk remains in focus after past actions when volatility spiked."
14:08 JPY and JGBs slide as election talk fuels stimulus bets – BBH
JPY and JGB slide, while the Nikkei rallies as Japan election talks fuel bets of more government stimulus.
JPY and JGB slide, while the Nikkei rallies as Japan election talks fuel bets of more government stimulus. According to Kyodo News, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to announce a dissolution of the lower house of the legislature on January 23, paving the way for a snap election in February, BBH FX analysts report. BOJ intervention risk rises with USD/JPY near 160"Takaichi does not need to call a general election until October 2028, but she may want to capitalize on her high approval rating (of nearly 70%) to regain her party’s (LDP) majority in the lower house. That has raised concern over a further loosening of Japan’s fiscal discipline as reflected by the underperformance in JPY and JGBs.""Worries over Japan fiscal profligacy are overdone. Japan nominal GDP growth is running at around 4% and leading indicators point to an encouraging growth outlook, while 10-year government bond yields are closer to 2%. With growth comfortably exceeding borrowing costs, Japan can sustain primary budget deficits without putting its debt ratio on an upward trajectory. In this environment, fiscal sustainability is far less fragile than markets currently imply.""In the meantime, the risk of BOJ intervention to curtail JPY weakness is rising with USD/JPY closing-in on 160.00. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated her 'concerns about the one-way weakening of the yen', adding that 'Treasury Secretary Bessent shares those concerns'. The chair of Japan’s biggest business lobby Keidanren also chimed in cautioning that the current yen weakness is a bit excessive and a correction for stronger yen is needed. In its last two FX interventions, the BOJ bought ¥9.79 trillion from April 26, 2024 through May 29, 2024 after USD/JPY rallied by 5.7% in 20 days to a high of 160.17. And, the BOJ bought ¥5.53 trillion from June 27, 2024 through July 29, 2024 after USD/JPY rallied by 4.2% in 30 days to a high of 161.95."
14:05 USD: Markets temper USD-bearish bets on Fed probe – ING
Markets have started to rethink some of their USD-bearish Fed independence bets, following several pushbacks against the Department of Justice's probe into Jerome Powell from Republican lawmakers.
Markets have started to rethink some of their USD-bearish Fed independence bets, following several pushbacks against the Department of Justice's probe into Jerome Powell from Republican lawmakers. Senator Thom Tillis went as far as saying he’ll oppose the next Chair nominee until the matter is resolved, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly flagged the financial market implications of the investigation to Trump, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Republican pushback eases political pressure on Powell"Investors will keep seeking reassurance – ideally from Trump or the DoJ – but the risks of another rapid drop have abated. If the investigation is dropped, there’s a decent chance the dollar may come out stronger from this story. That’s because markets might then perceive Powell as more legitimized (if nothing else to prove a point) in adopting a hawkish stance.""Anyway, nerves appear calmer enough today to re-focus on data. We think the dollar faces some upside risks from what we anticipate will be a hotter-than-expected 0.4% MoM December core CPI print (consensus 0.3%). Because of the shutdown, more data collection occurred later in November 2025, a period when Thanksgiving-related discounting is common. Compared with the full month of November 2024, this timing likely skewed that inflation reading lower. Reverting to more standard collection timings in December means risks of a hotter read.""A chunk of hawkish repricing already occurred last Friday after the jobs data, and markets increased implied cut probability on the back of the Fed investigation story. This means the upside for the dollar is not huge, but could allow USD crosses to keep edging back towards last Friday’s close."
14:01 USD stabilizes after political threat to Fed independence – BBH
US Dollar (USD) has stabilized following yesterday’s dip triggered by heightened political threat to the Fed’s independence.
US Dollar (USD) has stabilized following yesterday’s dip triggered by heightened political threat to the Fed’s independence. Even if checks remain – Republican resistance in the Senate and a non-autocratic FOMC – the politicization of the Fed weakens its inflation-fighting credibility which is a structural drag on USD. In the near-term, the recent upward adjustment to US rate expectations following a run of Goldilocks-type US economic data offers USD support, BBH FX analysts report. Fed signals policy on hold amid moderating inflation"Influential New York Fed President John Williams echoed the Fed’s on-hold guidance. Williams stressed that 'Monetary policy is now well-positioned to support the stabilization of the labor market and the return of inflation to the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2%'. Williams’ base case for 2026 is above-trend GDP growth between 2.5%-2.75%, inflation to peak at around 2.75-3.0% 'sometime during the first half of this year, before starting to fall back', and the unemployment rate to stabilize.""Fed funds futures price little chance of a cut at the next three FOMC meetings (January 28, March 18, and April 29). The next full 25bps cut isn’t priced until the June 17 meeting. Non-FOMC voters St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speak today. US December CPI is the focus. Headline inflation is expected at 2.7% y/y for a second consecutive month, and core inflation is seen rising 0.1pts to 2.7% y/y. The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model forecasts both headline and core CPI at 2.6% y/y in December.""More importantly, upside risks to prices are fading and leaves scope for the Fed to ease policy. The ISM prices paid indexes point to moderating inflation pressures. Additionally, average hourly earnings growth (3.8% y/y) is running around sustainable rates consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation goal given annual nonfarm productivity growth of around 2%."
14:00 EUR/GBP steady with focus on UK GDP, central bank policy dynamics
EUR/GBP trades in a tight range around 0.8660 on Tuesday, virtually unchanged on the day at the time of writing.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The EUR/GBP pair remains steady ahead of the release of the United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product data for November.Persistent weakness in the UK labor market continues to fuel expectations of a gradual easing in the United Kingdom’s monetary policy.The single currency is supported by a relatively neutral backdrop, as the European Central Bank signals no imminent shift in policy.EUR/GBP trades in a tight range around 0.8660 on Tuesday, virtually unchanged on the day at the time of writing. Investors remain cautious ahead of the release of UK growth figures, while continuing to assess the monetary policy outlook of the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB).On the UK side, the macroeconomic backdrop remains mixed. The BoE is widely seen as being on a path toward gradual policy easing, in an environment where risks to employment remain elevated, even as inflationary pressures stay above the 2% target. Recent labor market surveys show that demand for workers remains subdued, while wage growth continues to be firm, complicating the central bank’s policy trade-offs.Investors are now turning their attention to the release of the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for November, scheduled for Thursday. The UK economy is expected to have remained flat after contracting by 0.1% in October. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data for the same period will also be closely watched, as they are expected to provide further insight into economic momentum toward the end of the year.On the European side, the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months, with inflation now hovering close to target levels. In this environment, monetary policy is not a major catalyst for the single currency, whose movements continue to be guided primarily by external factors and investor sentiment. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% -0.06% 0.43% -0.02% 0.13% 0.03% 0.07% EUR 0.03% -0.03% 0.48% 0.01% 0.16% 0.06% 0.10% GBP 0.06% 0.03% 0.47% 0.04% 0.20% 0.09% 0.12% JPY -0.43% -0.48% -0.47% -0.44% -0.29% -0.40% -0.35% CAD 0.02% -0.01% -0.04% 0.44% 0.15% 0.04% 0.08% AUD -0.13% -0.16% -0.20% 0.29% -0.15% -0.11% -0.07% NZD -0.03% -0.06% -0.09% 0.40% -0.04% 0.11% 0.04% CHF -0.07% -0.10% -0.12% 0.35% -0.08% 0.07% -0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
13:56 EUR/USD fails to break 1.1700 – ING
EUR/USD missed an opportunity to break above 1.1700, with the euro lacking momentum while the US Dollar (USD) could strengthen further on upcoming inflation data, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/USD missed an opportunity to break above 1.1700, with the euro lacking momentum while the US Dollar (USD) could strengthen further on upcoming inflation data, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Dollar poised for further recovery on US inflation"Unless the Fed independence trade returns, EUR/USD might have missed its chance of a break above 1.1700 yesterday. We think US inflation can help the dollar recover further, and the euro is lacking any substantial bullish driver at this point.""The EUR:USD 2-year swap rate gap has rewidened by 9bp since the start of the year, and is at its widest since late November. With more upside risks for USD front-end rates today, we think there could be conditions for a move to 1.160 in the coming days."
13:50 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Approaches all-time high near 109.40
The AUD/JPY pair trades 0.3% higher to near 106.46 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The pair jumps higher as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its peers amid uncertainty surrounding Japan’s political outlook.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY jumps to near 106.46 amid continued underperformance from the Japanese Yen.Japan’s PM Takaichi is expected to dissolve the parliament’s lower house later this month.Investors await China’s Trade Balance data for December.The AUD/JPY pair trades 0.3% higher to near 106.46 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The pair jumps higher as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its peers amid uncertainty surrounding Japan’s political outlook. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% -0.06% 0.46% 0.00% 0.16% 0.04% 0.09% EUR 0.01% -0.04% 0.48% 0.02% 0.17% 0.05% 0.10% GBP 0.06% 0.04% 0.49% 0.07% 0.22% 0.09% 0.14% JPY -0.46% -0.48% -0.49% -0.44% -0.28% -0.42% -0.36% CAD -0.01% -0.02% -0.07% 0.44% 0.15% 0.02% 0.07% AUD -0.16% -0.17% -0.22% 0.28% -0.15% -0.12% -0.07% NZD -0.04% -0.05% -0.09% 0.42% -0.02% 0.12% 0.05% CHF -0.09% -0.10% -0.14% 0.36% -0.07% 0.07% -0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Japan’s news agency Kyodo reported earlier in the day that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had conveyed to a ruling party executive her intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house at the outset of its regular session scheduled to start on January 23, which strengthens the odds of an early snap election.Ahead of elections, polls state PM Takaichi to achieve a decisive electoral victory that has propelled hopes of higher fiscal stimulus by the government, Reuters reports. The scenario could be favorable for the Japanese stock market, but negative for the Japanese Yen, assuming big spending plans could derail the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) plans to remain on the monetary tightening path.Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades broadly calm ahead of China’s Trade Balance data, releasing on Wednesday.AUD/JPY technical analysisAUD/JPY trades higher near 106.46. The 10-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 103.85 rises and supports the advance as the price holds above it. Staying above this gauge would preserve the uptrend and keep pullbacks contained.The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 79.39 is overbought, signaling stretched momentum. Overbought conditions could spur consolidation, yet the bullish bias would persist while the pair respects the rising 10-week EMA. A close below that dynamic support would open room for a deeper retracement.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
13:47 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eases from $4,630 ahead of US CPI release
Gold (XAU/USD) posts moderate losses in a calm trading session on Tuesday, pulling back from all-time highs at $4,630, but still above previous highs in the $4,560 area.
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Markets are bracing for a moderate uptick in inflation, following the November’s unexpected slowdown. The Headline CPI is expected to have grown at a steady 2.7% year-on-year pace, while core inflation is forecast to accelerate to 2.7% from 2.6% last month. All in all, figures that curb hopes of further Fed easing anytime soon.Technical analysis: Gold corrects lower within a broader bullish trend
XAU/USD bulls met resistance at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the last two weeks' trading range, at the $4,625 area, but the pair remains steady above December's peak at $4,555 so far. The broader bullish structure remains in play with the ascending 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at the $4,440 area.
Technical indicators are turning lower. The 4-Hour RSI, now at 65, remains in bullish territory, but the longer trend shows a bearish divergence. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is attempting to cross below the signal line, which would highlight a cooling bullish momentum.
Immediate support is the mentioned December 26 high, at $4,555, ahead of the January 7 high, at the $45000 area, and the mentioned 100-period SMA support near $4,440. Resistances are at Monday's high, at $4625 and the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of the above-mentioned cycle, at $4,714.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Markets are bracing for a moderate uptick in inflation, following the November’s unexpected slowdown. The Headline CPI is expected to have grown at a steady 2.7% year-on-year pace, while core inflation is forecast to accelerate to 2.7% from 2.6% last month. All in all, figures that curb hopes of further Fed easing anytime soon.Technical analysis: Gold corrects lower within a broader bullish trend
XAU/USD bulls met resistance at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the last two weeks' trading range, at the $4,625 area, but the pair remains steady above December's peak at $4,555 so far. The broader bullish structure remains in play with the ascending 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at the $4,440 area.
Technical indicators are turning lower. The 4-Hour RSI, now at 65, remains in bullish territory, but the longer trend shows a bearish divergence. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is attempting to cross below the signal line, which would highlight a cooling bullish momentum.
Immediate support is the mentioned December 26 high, at $4,555, ahead of the January 7 high, at the $45000 area, and the mentioned 100-period SMA support near $4,440. Resistances are at Monday's high, at $4625 and the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of the above-mentioned cycle, at $4,714.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
13:47 USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range between 6.9620 and 6.9820 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 6.9620 and 6.9820. In the longer run, USD remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a lower range of 6.9520/6.9900, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 6.9620 and 6.9820. In the longer run, USD remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a lower range of 6.9520/6.9900, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD/CNH remains neutral for now24-HOUR VIEW: "Following last Friday’s price action, we highlighted yesterday that 'the underlying tone has softened somewhat, but this is likely to lead to USD trading in a range of 6.9700/6.9860 rather than a continued decline'. However, USD traded in a lower range than expected (6.9630/6.9750). There has been no clear increase in downward momentum, and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range today, most likely between 6.9620 and 6.9820." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have maintained a neutral USD view since last Thursday (08 Jan, spot at 6.9900), and we expected USD to 'trade between 6.9660 and 7.0160'. While USD dipped below 6.9660 yesterday (low of 6.9630), downward momentum only increased slightly. To put it another way, we maintain our neutral view, but we now expect USD to trade in a lower range of 6.9520/6.9900."
13:42 Copper climbs toward record on supply concerns – ING
Copper prices rose toward record levels as ongoing supply concerns coincide with strong US imports ahead of potential tariffs, keeping markets on edge, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Copper prices rose toward record levels as ongoing supply concerns coincide with strong US imports ahead of potential tariffs, keeping markets on edge, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.US imports surge ahead of potential tariffs"Copper rose toward a record amid ongoing concerns over supply, while the US continues to import record volumes ahead of any potential tariffs. Comex Copper inventories reached an all-time high after expanding for 42 straight weeks. But they remain below total warehouse capacity. This is keeping markets outside the US tight."
13:40 USD/JPY: Likely to continue rising – UOB Group
USD is likely to continue to rise; the level to watch is 158.90, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USD is likely to continue to rise; the level to watch is 158.90, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. The level to watch is 158.9024-HOUR VIEW: "Following the strong rise in USD last Friday, we indicated yesterday that 'strong momentum indicates further USD strength, but deeply overbought conditions suggest that 158.90 is likely out of reach today'. We highlighted that 'any pullback today is likely to remain above 157.40, with minor support at 157.75'. The anticipated advance did not quite materialize, as USD edged higher within a range of 157.52/158.20, closing modestly higher at 158.15 (+0.17%). While upward momentum is beginning to slow, there is scope for USD to rise further today. That said, any advance is likely part of a 157.60/158.40 range. In other words, USD is unlikely to break clearly above 158.35." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After USD soared last Friday, we indicated yesterday (12 Jan, spot at 158.00) that 'with rapidly increasing upward momentum, USD is likely to continue to rise'. We pointed out that 'the level to watch is last year’s high, near 158.90'. We will continue to hold the same view as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ at 157.00 (no change in level)."
13:38 Gold consolidates below all-time high as markets await US CPI
Gold (XAU/USD) treads water on Tuesday as the market shifts into wait-and-see mode ahead of the release of US inflation data at 13:30 GMT. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,585, consolidating just below Monday’s record peak near $4,630.
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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,585, consolidating just below Monday’s record peak near $4,630.The precious metal remains underpinned by steady safe-haven demand as geopolitical and economic uncertainty keep investors cautious. Markets remain unsettled by the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, which has revived concerns over the central bank's independence.At the same time, risk sentiment has been hit by fresh geopolitical developments after US President Donald Trump threatened a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran amid nationwide anti-government protests.This follows earlier US actions in Venezuela, where Washington carried out a military operation against President Nicolás Maduro, as well as Trump’s renewed rhetoric over strategic interests in Greenland.Looking ahead, attention is squarely on the US inflation report. Economists expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to come in at 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY, both unchanged from the previous month. The data could help shape near-term expectations for the Fed and drive the next move in Gold.Market movers: Markets Jittery as DOJ Probes Powell, Fed Independence in FocusThe US Department of Justice issued grand jury subpoenas as part of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, linked to his Senate testimony on the Fed’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project. Powell said the move is politically motivated and stressed that the Fed will continue to set policy based on economic conditions rather than political pressure.Adding to concerns over Fed independence, US President Donald Trump is expected to announce a potential replacement for Jerome Powell later this month, with Powell’s term as Fed Chair ending in May 2026. Markets widely expect Trump to nominate a candidate more closely aligned with his policy views, reinforcing uncertainty around the future direction of US monetary policy.On the monetary policy front, markets are currently pricing in around two Fed rate cuts this year. However, last week’s US employment report showed the labour market is holding up better than many feared, tempering expectations for aggressive easing and reinforcing the view that the Fed can afford to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting.Attention also remains on the US Supreme Court, which is due to hold an opinion day on Wednesday on the legality of Trump-era tariffs. At the same time, the court is set to hear arguments on January 21 in the case over Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.Major investment banks remain broadly bullish on Gold’s outlook. Bank of America, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS expect prices to hold in the $4,500-$5,000/oz range through 2026, citing anticipated Fed rate cuts, rising debt concerns, steady central bank and ETF buying, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, according to Reuters.Technical analysis: Gold pauses below $4,600XAU/USD bulls are taking a breather after the recent rally, as overbought signals on both the daily and 4-hour charts triggered mild technical selling.On the 4-hour chart, RSI has eased after topping above 70, with bearish divergence signalling fading upside momentum in the short term, even as the broader trend remains constructive.On the downside, initial support is seen in the $4,525-$4,500 zone, where the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns. A decisive break below this area could open the door for a deeper corrective move toward the $4,400 level.On the upside, a sustained move above $4,600, followed by a break of the all-time high near $4,630, could pave the way for gains toward $4,700-$4,750. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
13:37 Gold hits new records as safe-haven demand surges – ING
Gold surged to fresh record highs above $4,600 an ounce as geopolitical tensions, fiscal uncertainty, and strong central bank buying fueled demand for safe-haven assets, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Gold surged to fresh record highs above $4,600 an ounce as geopolitical tensions, fiscal uncertainty, and strong central bank buying fueled demand for safe-haven assets, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Fed independence fears and geopolitics boost metals"Gold climbed to fresh records as a range of supportive factors converged. They include geopolitical risks, elevated fiscal uncertainty, strong central bank demand, and ongoing concerns about inflation and monetary credibility." "The US Justice Department threatened the Federal Reserve with a criminal indictment, reviving concerns over the central bank’s independence. The dollar fell, boosting the prices of metals. Protests in Iran keep geopolitical tensions elevated, while President Trump has reiterated threats to take Greenland, bringing further upside to precious metals." "Gold surpassed $4,600/oz in yesterday’s trading, while Silver surged past $85/oz. Silver has already climbed around 20% so far this year, following an almost 150% surge last year. This has pushed the Gold/Silver ratio below 60, the lowest level since 2013."
13:33 NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could rise further; overbought conditions could limit any gains to a test of 0.5785. In the longer run, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could rise further; overbought conditions could limit any gains to a test of 0.5785. In the longer run, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Overbought conditions might limit any gains to a test of 0.578524-HOUR VIEW: "NZD fell more than we expected last Friday. Yesterday, when NZD was at 0.5730, we pointed out that 'the combination of slowing downward momentum and oversold conditions suggests that NZD is likely to consolidate today, probably between 0.5715 and 0.5750'. However, instead of consolidating, NZD rose to a high of 0.5775. The advance has gathered momentum, and NZD could rise further today. That said, overbought conditions could limit any gains to a test of 0.5785. The major resistance at 0.5805 is not expected to come into view. Support is at 0.5775; a breach of 0.5740 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (09 Jan, spot at 0.5750), we highlighted that 'downward momentum has increased slightly, and NZD could edge lower toward 0.5715'. After NZD subsequently fell to a low of 0.5712, we highlighted yesterday (12 Jan, spot at 0.5730) that 'while downward momentum remains mild, NZD could continue to edge lower toward 0.5690'. We did not anticipate NZD to recover and break above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.5770 (high of 0.5775). The mild downward pressure has eased, and for the time being, we expect NZD to trade in a range, most likely between 0.5720 and 0.5805."
13:18 JPY: Snap election talk lifts yields, weakens the yen – Société Générale
Speculation that Prime Minister Takaichi may call a snap election has pushed Japanese government bond yields higher and sent the yen weaker, driving USD/JPY back toward 159.
Speculation that Prime Minister Takaichi may call a snap election has pushed Japanese government bond yields higher and sent the yen weaker, driving USD/JPY back toward 159. With yen positioning reversing sharply and long-term JGB yields still climbing, markets remain highly volatile, but analysts see a potential opportunity to sell USD/JPY if the latest spike extends, Société Générale's FX analyst Kit Juckes reports. USD/JPY surges as JPY longs unwind"For years all an FX strategist needed, to forecast USD/JPY accurately, was to sit next to a brilliant forecaster of Treasury yields. Now it’s harder. This morning’s Japanese news, that PM Takaichi is said to be planning for a snap election, using a surge in popularity to cement the LDP’s grip on the Lower House of the Diet, has sent yields up and weakened the Japanese Yen (GBP).""In 2024, when the futures market built up a large net short JPY position, USD/JPY spiked above 160. The latest move has unwound the long yen position built up in the first few months of 2025, USD/JPY round-tripping from 159, to 140 and back up to 159. You would have to be very brave to be confident that we have seen the peak in either 30year JGB yields or in USD/JPY.""Even with a majority in the House, the administration is unlikely to pursue aggressive fiscal expansion immediately' given debt sustainability concerns, while the lack of near-term issuance in the long end of the curve combined with a policy focus on regaining LDP seats in the Upper House, make a case for a ‘buy the dip’ strategy in long JGBs. The same is likely true for the yen. A spike in the coming days, may finally be an opportunity to go short USD/JPY."
13:07 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 0.6685/0.67305 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a range of 0.6685/0.6730. In the longer run, the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.6655 and 0.6745, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a range of 0.6685/0.6730. In the longer run, the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.6655 and 0.6745, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected AUD to range-trade between 0.6670 and 0.6710 yesterday. However, AUD rose to a high of 0.6722, closing higher by 0.34% at 0.6710. The increase in upward momentum is not strong enough to suggest a continued rise. Today, AUD is more likely to trade in a higher range of 0.6685/0.6730." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as last Friday (09 Jan, spot at 0.6700). As highlighted, 'the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.6655 and 0.6745'."
13:05 USD/JPY revisits over-a-year high of 159.00 ahead of US CPI release
The USD/JPY pair revisits its one-and-a-half-year high of 159.00 during the European trading session on Tuesday.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY jumps to near 159.00 ahead of the US inflation data, the highest level seen in one-and-a-half years.The US headline CPI is expected to have grown steadily by 2.7% YoY.Growing concerns over Japan’s early snap election have been a major drag on the Japanese Yen.The USD/JPY pair revisits its one-and-a-half-year high of 159.00 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The pair trades firmly due to continued underperformance from the Japanese Yen (JPY), following hopes of an early snap election by Japan’s Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi, which were recently propelled. Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.28% -0.52% 0.44% -0.22% -0.25% -0.56% -0.30% EUR 0.28% -0.25% 0.80% 0.08% 0.04% -0.28% -0.02% GBP 0.52% 0.25% 1.05% 0.34% 0.28% -0.04% 0.23% JPY -0.44% -0.80% -1.05% -0.69% -0.72% -1.03% -0.77% CAD 0.22% -0.08% -0.34% 0.69% -0.05% -0.34% -0.09% AUD 0.25% -0.04% -0.28% 0.72% 0.05% -0.31% -0.05% NZD 0.56% 0.28% 0.04% 1.03% 0.34% 0.31% 0.25% CHF 0.30% 0.02% -0.23% 0.77% 0.09% 0.05% -0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
On Friday, Japan Innovation Party leader Hirofumi Yoshimura told public broadcaster NHK that he met with PM Takaichi and felt her view on the timing of an election had shifted to a new stage.Earlier in the day, Japan's economy minister, Minoru Kiuchi, said that the government needs to aim for early parliamentary passage of the fiscal budget 2026.Market experts are of the view that Tokyo aims for a big spending budget to boost the economy, a scenario that could stall the Bank of Japan’s policy-normalization stance in the near term.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades marginally higher ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The impact of the US inflation data is expected to be limited on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy expectations as policymakers remain more concerned about employment risks.The US core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is expected to have risen at a faster pace to 2.7% YoY from 2.6% in November, with headline figures growing steadily by 2.7%. Month-on-month, both headline and the core CPI are estimated to have risen by 0.3%. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
13:05 European Gas prices jump on cold weather and Iran risks – ING
European Natural Gas prices surged, with TTF rising 6.6% to above €30/MWh as colder weather boosted heating demand and unrest in Iran raised concerns over LNG and pipeline supplies, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
European Natural Gas prices surged, with TTF rising 6.6% to above €30/MWh as colder weather boosted heating demand and unrest in Iran raised concerns over LNG and pipeline supplies, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.LNG supply concerns lift European Gas market"European Natural Gas prices surged yesterday, with TTF settling 6.6% higher, returning to above EUR30/MWh. Colder weather across large parts of Europe increases heating demand, while unrest in Iran is a concern for Gas markets." "First, there are potential risks to LNG flows from the Persian Gulf. Second, there’s the potential for disruptions to Iranian Gas flows to Turkey. Given the large TTF fund short, it wouldn’t take much to move the market as funds run in to cover shorts."
13:03 GBP/USD is likely in a range-trading phase – UOB Group
Sharp rebound has scope to test 1.3495 before a pullback can be expected; 1.3520 is not expected to come under threat. In the longer run, GBP is likely in a range-trading phase between 1.3390 and 1.3520, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Sharp rebound has scope to test 1.3495 before a pullback can be expected; 1.3520 is not expected to come under threat. In the longer run, GBP is likely in a range-trading phase between 1.3390 and 1.3520, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Sharp rebound has scope to test 1.349524-HOUR VIEW: "GBP fell to a low of 1.3393 last Friday. When GBP was at 1.3405 in the early Asian session yesterday, we stated that 'even without a significant increase in downward momentum, GBP may yet test the major support at 1.3370'. We added, 'a clear break below this level appears unlikely'. Our assessments were incorrect, as GBP rebounded sharply to a high of 1.3486. The advance has scope to test 1.3495 before a pullback can be expected. The major resistance at 1.3520 is not expected to come under threat. On the downside, support levels are at 1.3445 and 1.3420." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our GBP view to negative yesterday (12 Jan, spot at 1.3405). We were of the view that GBP 'could decline to 1.3370, potentially reaching 1.3340'. Our view was invalidated quickly as GBP rose and broke above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.3475 (high of 1.3486). The price action suggests that GBP is likely in a range-trading phase, probably between 1.3390 and 1.3520."
13:02 Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 2.5% in November from previous 2.1%
Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 2.5% in November from previous 2.1%
13:00 Oil: Geopolitics and disruptions fuel Oil rally – ING
Oil prices rallied for a third consecutive day yesterday, with ICE Brent trading close to US$64/bbl. The prompt ICE Brent timepsread has also strengthened through January amid growing supply risks, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Oil prices rallied for a third consecutive day yesterday, with ICE Brent trading close to US$64/bbl. The prompt ICE Brent timepsread has also strengthened through January amid growing supply risks, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Iran unrest and Kazakh outages lift oil prices"The price increase comes amid intensifying protests in Iran, raising the possibility of some form of intervention by the US. There have been suggestions of the potential for US military action. Up until now, President Trump has said the US will impose a 25% tariff on any country “doing business” with Iran. China is a key buyer of Iranian Oil. Whether this secondary tariff threat is sufficient to push China away from Iranian Oil remains to be seen." "Previously, the threat of secondary tariffs from buying Venezuelan and Russian Oil was not enough to persuade China to halt purchases of Oil from these countries. In addition, with the US and China having come to a trade truce, we question whether the US would want to rock the boat once again with additional tariffs on China.""Exports of Kazakh Oil from the CPC terminal will come under significant pressure this month. Shipments are expected to come in between 800-900k b/d, around 45% below initial expectations, according to Bloomberg. The drop is due to maintenance and damage caused by Ukrainian drones, while weather has also been an issue."
13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (MoM): 0.5% (November) vs -0.5%
Ireland Retail Sales (MoM): 0.5% (November) vs -0.5%
13:00 United States NFIB Business Optimism Index in line with expectations (99.5) in December
United States NFIB Business Optimism Index in line with expectations (99.5) in December
12:50 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 1.1640 and 1.1700 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1640 and 1.1700. In the longer run, weakness in EUR from early last week has stabilized; for the time being, it is likely to consolidate between 1.1615 and 1.1730, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1640 and 1.1700. In the longer run, weakness in EUR from early last week has stabilized; for the time being, it is likely to consolidate between 1.1615 and 1.1730, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Weakness in EUR from early last week has stabilized24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected EUR to 'consolidate between 1.1615 and 1.1665' yesterday. We were incorrect, as instead of consolidating, EUR rebounded strongly to a high of 1.1698. The sharp rebound appears to be running ahead of itself, and EUR is unlikely to rise much. Today, EUR is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.1640 and 1.1700." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday, EUR dropped to a low of 1.1617. Yesterday (12 Jan, spot at 1.1635), we highlighted that EUR 'must close below 1.1615 before a move to 1.1585 can be expected'. We did not expect EUR to rise and break above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.1690 (high of 1.1698). The breach of the ‘strong resistance’ indicates that the decline in EUR from early last week (see annotations in the chart below) has stabilised. EUR appears to have entered a consolidation phase, and for the time being, it is likely to trade between 1.1615 and 1.1730."
12:47 Brent rebounds from key support near $58 – Société Générale
Brent Crude has recovered from its April–May low around $58.40 and is now pushing toward the 200-day moving average near $65.75, a level that has capped recent rebound attempts, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Brent Crude has recovered from its April–May low around $58.40 and is now pushing toward the 200-day moving average near $65.75, a level that has capped recent rebound attempts, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Oil approaches critical 200-DMA"Brent recently defended the April/May 2025 low at $58.40 and has since staged a gradual recovery. It is now inching toward the 200-DMA near $65.75, an important hurdle. Notably, this moving average has provided resistance to the rebound attempts throughout the recent downtrend." "A cross above this could lead to a larger up move. Last week’s trough at $59.80 serves as a short-term support."
12:44 WTI prices return above $60.00 as the conflict in Iran escalates
The US benchmark WTI Oil has appreciated more than $4 per barrel in a four-day rally, reaching nearly two-month highs at $60.50 on Tuesday, before pulling back to the $60.00 area.
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US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that a 25% additional tariff on imports to the US from countries that do business with the Islamic Republic. Trump also flagged the possibility of “very strong” action against Iran in retaliation for their handling of the protests.Venezuela, on the other hand, is expected to resume crude Oil exports soon, which is keeping prices from rising higher. A Reuters report on Friday stated that Commodity traders Trafigura and Vitol have agreed to provide logistical support for the sale of Venezuelan oil at the request of the US government. The report also said that the first vessel could be loaded this week. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that a 25% additional tariff on imports to the US from countries that do business with the Islamic Republic. Trump also flagged the possibility of “very strong” action against Iran in retaliation for their handling of the protests.Venezuela, on the other hand, is expected to resume crude Oil exports soon, which is keeping prices from rising higher. A Reuters report on Friday stated that Commodity traders Trafigura and Vitol have agreed to provide logistical support for the sale of Venezuelan oil at the request of the US government. The report also said that the first vessel could be loaded this week. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
12:42 Germany 5-y Note Auction climbed from previous 2.27% to 2.47%
Germany 5-y Note Auction climbed from previous 2.27% to 2.47%
12:31 Chiefs of global central bankers: Expresses support for Fed's Powell
During the European trading session on Tuesday, chiefs of many of the world's major central banks issued a joint statement in support of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell after the Trump administration threatened him with a criminal indictment.
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During the European trading session on Tuesday, chiefs of many of the world's major central banks issued a joint statement in support of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell after the Trump administration threatened him with a criminal indictment.Collective remarks from heads of the ECB, BoE, and nine other institutionsWe stand in full solidarity with the Fed System and its Chair Jerome H. Powell.
The independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability in the interest of the citizens that we serve.
The US administration's criminal probe is formally about the renovation of the Fed's headquarters but Powell called it a "pretext" to win presidential influence over interest rates. Market reactionThere seems to be a slight positive impact of news on the US Dollar (USD). As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades marginally higher to near 98.95. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability in the interest of the citizens that we serve.
The US administration's criminal probe is formally about the renovation of the Fed's headquarters but Powell called it a "pretext" to win presidential influence over interest rates. Market reactionThere seems to be a slight positive impact of news on the US Dollar (USD). As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades marginally higher to near 98.95. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
12:28 EUR/JPY extends rally as Yen falters on political uncertainty, BoJ caution
EUR/JPY trades around 185.50 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.50% on the day, extending its upward move for a third consecutive session, hitting a new multi-year high at 185.54 earlier in the day.
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The pair mainly benefits from the weakening of the Japanese Yen (JPY), against a backdrop of political uncertainty in Japan and continued caution surrounding the normalization of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy.The Japanese Yen remains under pressure following reports that Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early general election as soon as the first half of February. This prospect fuels expectations of a more expansionary fiscal policy, which tends to weigh on the Japanese currency. At the same time, the lack of a clear timeline for the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan continues to undermine the JPY, as markets view the central bank’s exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy as particularly cautious and gradual.Despite a relatively hawkish tone, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments evolve in line with its forecasts. However, investors remain skeptical about the actual timing of the next move, limiting the Japanese Yen’s appeal as a safe-haven currency.On the political and geopolitical front, the Japanese currency is also pressured by deteriorating relations between Japan and China. Beijing recently banned the export of certain rare earth elements to Japan following diplomatic tensions over Taiwan, increasing supply-chain risks for Japanese manufacturers and weighing on sentiment surrounding the JPY.However, the recent decline in the Japanese Yen could prompt stronger verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that she had shared concerns about the JPY’s one-sided depreciation with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, adding that tolerance for excessive weakness was limited. These comments could help curb further downside in the JPY in the near term and warrant some caution regarding the immediate continuation of EUR/JPY’s rally.On the European side, the Euro remains relatively stable. The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months, with inflation now hovering close to the 2% target. In this environment, monetary policy is not a major catalyst for the single currency, whose performance continues to be driven mainly by global market sentiment and external factors. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.02% -0.07% 0.46% 0.00% 0.20% 0.01% 0.07% EUR 0.02% -0.04% 0.52% 0.03% 0.22% 0.04% 0.09% GBP 0.07% 0.04% 0.54% 0.07% 0.27% 0.08% 0.14% JPY -0.46% -0.52% -0.54% -0.46% -0.27% -0.46% -0.39% CAD -0.00% -0.03% -0.07% 0.46% 0.19% 0.00% 0.07% AUD -0.20% -0.22% -0.27% 0.27% -0.19% -0.19% -0.13% NZD -0.01% -0.04% -0.08% 0.46% -0.01% 0.19% 0.06% CHF -0.07% -0.09% -0.14% 0.39% -0.07% 0.13% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
12:03 Spain 12-Month Letras Auction: 2.032% vs 1.99%
Spain 12-Month Letras Auction: 2.032% vs 1.99%
12:00 Spain 6-Month Letras Auction increased to 1.981% from previous 1.931%
Spain 6-Month Letras Auction increased to 1.981% from previous 1.931%
12:00 Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.6% in December from previous 2.4%
Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.6% in December from previous 2.4%
12:00 Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) up to 2.9% in December from previous 2.8%
Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) up to 2.9% in December from previous 2.8%
11:40 Spain 12-Month Letras Auction down to 1.981% from previous 1.99%
Spain 12-Month Letras Auction down to 1.981% from previous 1.99%
11:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $85.74 per troy ounce, up 0.68% from the $85.17 it cost on Monday.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $85.74 per troy ounce, up 0.68% from the $85.17 it cost on Monday.Silver prices have increased by 20.62% since the beginning of the year.Unit measureSilver Price Today in USDTroy Ounce85.741 Gram2.76The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 53.59 on Tuesday, down from 53.94 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:16 USD/CHF Price Forecast: US Dollar is looking for direction above 0.7955
The US Dollar has found support at 0.7955, after retreating from highs near 0.8020 against the Swiss Franc on Monday.
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The pair's bearish pressure stemming from the escalation of the conflict between the US government and the Federal Reserve (Fed) seems to have abated, and investors are looking from the sidelines on Tuesday, awaiting the release of the US CPI report, to place directional bets on the US Dollar. Technical Analysis: USD/CHF trades within an expanding wedge
The USD/CHF paid trades at 0.7977 after bouncing from 0.7955 lows. Price action shows an expanding wedge, a figure highlighting an emotional market, and often anticipating a bearish outcome. Technical indicators show a neutral-to bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below the zero line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 50 line, which reflects a lack of a clear bias.Immediate support is in the confluence between trendline support and Monday's low, around 0.7955. If this level gives way, the next target is the January 2 and 6 lows at the 0.7900-0.7905 area. To the upside, a previous support at 0.7985 (January 9 low) is holding bulls right now and closing the path to Monday's high, at 0.8020, and the wedge top, now at 0.8035.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% -0.08% 0.51% 0.00% 0.17% -0.03% 0.03% EUR -0.00% -0.08% 0.50% 0.00% 0.16% -0.03% 0.03% GBP 0.08% 0.08% 0.56% 0.09% 0.25% 0.05% 0.10% JPY -0.51% -0.50% -0.56% -0.47% -0.32% -0.52% -0.45% CAD -0.01% -0.01% -0.09% 0.47% 0.16% -0.04% 0.02% AUD -0.17% -0.16% -0.25% 0.32% -0.16% -0.19% -0.13% NZD 0.03% 0.03% -0.05% 0.52% 0.04% 0.19% 0.06% CHF -0.03% -0.03% -0.10% 0.45% -0.02% 0.13% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). weakening
The pair's bearish pressure stemming from the escalation of the conflict between the US government and the Federal Reserve (Fed) seems to have abated, and investors are looking from the sidelines on Tuesday, awaiting the release of the US CPI report, to place directional bets on the US Dollar. Technical Analysis: USD/CHF trades within an expanding wedge
The USD/CHF paid trades at 0.7977 after bouncing from 0.7955 lows. Price action shows an expanding wedge, a figure highlighting an emotional market, and often anticipating a bearish outcome. Technical indicators show a neutral-to bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below the zero line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 50 line, which reflects a lack of a clear bias.Immediate support is in the confluence between trendline support and Monday's low, around 0.7955. If this level gives way, the next target is the January 2 and 6 lows at the 0.7900-0.7905 area. To the upside, a previous support at 0.7985 (January 9 low) is holding bulls right now and closing the path to Monday's high, at 0.8020, and the wedge top, now at 0.8035.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% -0.08% 0.51% 0.00% 0.17% -0.03% 0.03% EUR -0.00% -0.08% 0.50% 0.00% 0.16% -0.03% 0.03% GBP 0.08% 0.08% 0.56% 0.09% 0.25% 0.05% 0.10% JPY -0.51% -0.50% -0.56% -0.47% -0.32% -0.52% -0.45% CAD -0.01% -0.01% -0.09% 0.47% 0.16% -0.04% 0.02% AUD -0.17% -0.16% -0.25% 0.32% -0.16% -0.19% -0.13% NZD 0.03% 0.03% -0.05% 0.52% 0.04% 0.19% 0.06% CHF -0.03% -0.03% -0.10% 0.45% -0.02% 0.13% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). weakening
10:55 Dow Jones futures slip as traders adopt caution ahead of CPI inflation data
Dow Jones futures edge lower by 0.09% to near 49,750 during the European session on Tuesday, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures decline 0.08% and 0.14% to near 7,010 and 25,920, respectively.
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US stock futures struggle as traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, due later in the North American session, to gain clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path.Traders adopt caution amid rising concerns over Fed independence. US federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his comments to Congress regarding a building renovation project. The Trump administration has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates, with Powell calling the threat a “pretext” to influence policy.Wall Street closed higher on Monday, led by consumer staples, industrials, and materials. The Dow Jones rose 0.17%, the S&P 500 gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.26%. Focus is also shifting to JPMorgan’s Q4 earnings, ahead of results this week from major banks including Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs.Financial markets are pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, starting in June. CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows Fed funds futures imply a 95% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the January 27–28 meeting.US inflation is expected to hold at 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in December 2025, while core inflation is likely to rise to 2.7% from 2.6%, its lowest since early 2021. Monthly headline and core CPI are both seen increasing 0.3%, largely driven by higher goods prices. Any upside surprise in inflation could constrain the US central bank’s scope to ease. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
10:51 AUD/USD ticks down to near 0.6700 ahead of US inflation data
The AUD/USD pair trades marginally lower to near 0.6700 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair edges down as the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher slightly ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
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The Aussie pair edges down as the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher slightly ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges up to near 99.00. The DXY corrected sharply on Monday from its monthly high of 99.26 after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell was charged with criminal charges over mismanaging funds allocated to the renovation of Washington’s headquarters.As measured by the CPI, the US headline inflation is expected to have grown steadily by 2.7% Year-on-year (YoY). In the same period, the core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is seen accelerating to 2.7% from the prior reading of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, both the headline and the core CPI rose by 0.3%.Signs of price pressures cooling down are expected to boost dovish speculation for the Fed’s monetary conditions in the near term. However, hot figures are unlikely to weigh on them significantly as officials have been more concerned about weak job market conditions.Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades broadly calm during European trading hours. Going forward, the major trigger for the Aussie dollar will be China’s Trade Balance data for December, which will be published on Wednesday. The data is expected to show that Imports by Beijing grew at a moderate pace of 0.9% against November’s reading of 1.9%. The impact of China’s international trade data remains significant for the Australian Dollar, given that the Australian economy relies heavily on its exports to Beijing. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jan 13, 2026 13:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.7% Previous: 2.7% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
10:44 Pound Sterling clings to gains against US Dollar ahead of US CPI data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds onto Monday’s gains around 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair trades firmly ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling trades firmly near 1.3470 against the US Dollar ahead of the US inflation data release for December.Fed’s Bostic warns of high inflation and stresses the need to bring it under control.Rising concerns about the Fed’s independence could hit the US sovereign rating.The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds onto Monday’s gains around 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair trades firmly ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.Investors will monitor the US CPI data to get fresh cues on the current price growth in the economy and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. However, the impact of inflation figures is set to be limited on market expectations regarding interest rates in the near term, as Fed officials are more concerned about labor market risks.In the December policy meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in an attempt to contain employment risks and stated that there are “no inflation concerns in the long run”. “It doesn't feel like a hot economy,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after the decision, adding, “Evidence is growing that services inflation has come down, and goods inflation is entirely due to tariffs.”On the contrary, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned in an interview with radio station WLRN on Friday that inflation is “too high” and the central bank needs to get it “under control”.The US core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is expected to have risen at a faster pace to 2.7% YoY in December from 2.6% the previous month, with the headline figure growing steadily by 2.7%. Month-on-month (MoM), both headline and core CPI are estimated to have grown by 0.3%.Daily Digest Market Movers: Pound Sterling trades calmly while UK GDP data takes centre stageThe Pound Sterling trades broadly firm against its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), on Tuesday. The GBP gains as market sentiment for currencies that are facing limited fiscal and monetary risks remains upbeat, following criminal charges against Fed’s Powell over mismanaging funds allocated for the renovation of Washington’s headquarters.On Monday, US federal prosecutors sent a subpoena to Jerome Powell, which directs an inquiry into his statements in his testimony at the Senate in June 2025 and an examination of his spending records.In response, Fed’s chair stated that these criminal charges are a consequence of the central bank setting “interest rates based on its assessment of the public interest rather than the president's preferences”.On the domestic front, investors keenly await the United Kingdom (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the factory data for November, which are scheduled for Thursday. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to show that the economic growth remained flat after declining 0.1% in October. Meanwhile, MoM Manufacturing Production is estimated to have grown steadily by 0.5%, with Industrial Production remaining flat.Meanwhile, the outlook of the US Dollar has become uncertain as market experts believe that criminal charges against Jerome Powell are an attack on the Fed’s independence, a scenario that could hit the US sovereign rating. Analysts at Fitch Ratings have also noted that the central bank’s independence has been a key factor behind the strong US credit rating.This week, investors will also focus on the US Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for December, which will be released on Wednesday.Technical Analysis: GBP/USD holds 50% Fibo retracement at 1.3402GBP/USD trades flat around 1.3463 at the press time. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average at 1.3442 is rising, with price holding above it to preserve short-term upside traction. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 (neutral) indicates steady momentum rather than aggressive trend extension.Measured from the 1.3791 high to the 1.3012 low, the pair wobbles inside the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3402 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3494. A break above the latter would improve the recovery profile and open the door towards the September 17 high of 1.3726, while a failure to clear overhead resistance would keep the rebound capped and encourage consolidation around the rising average. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:43 EUR/USD recovery loses steam as focus shifts to US CPI data
EUR/USD is trading practically flat, near 1.1650 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after pulling back from the 1.1700 area.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD steadies above 1.1650 on Tuesday after rejection at the 1.1700 area the previous day.Hawkish comments by Fed's Williams provided some support to the US Dollar on Monday.The market is bracing for a strong US CPI reading later on Tuesday.EUR/USD is trading practically flat, near 1.1650 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after pulling back from the 1.1700 area. Some bullish comments by the New York Federal Reserve’s (Fed) President John Williams eased market concerns about the central bank’s independence and provided some footing to an ailing US Dollar (USD) on Monday.
Investors sold the US Dollar across the board on Monday’s early trading, following a report by the New York Times affirming that the US Government was initiating a criminal investigation against the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell.
The action marks an escalation in an extended conflict between US President Donald Trump and Powell, which raises questions about the central bank’s independence and threatens the status of the US Dollar as a reserve currency. Macroeconomic data is expected to return to the focus on Tuesday, as the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) releases the December US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Price pressures are expected to have remained well above the Fed’s 2% target, with core inflation ticking up. Barring surprises, these figures are likely to endorse the positions of the Fed's hawkish party. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.03% -0.04% 0.43% -0.01% 0.09% -0.11% -0.00% EUR -0.03% -0.06% 0.41% -0.04% 0.06% -0.14% -0.03% GBP 0.04% 0.06% 0.47% 0.03% 0.13% -0.08% 0.03% JPY -0.43% -0.41% -0.47% -0.43% -0.34% -0.55% -0.43% CAD 0.01% 0.04% -0.03% 0.43% 0.10% -0.11% 0.00% AUD -0.09% -0.06% -0.13% 0.34% -0.10% -0.20% -0.09% NZD 0.11% 0.14% 0.08% 0.55% 0.11% 0.20% 0.11% CHF 0.00% 0.03% -0.03% 0.43% -0.00% 0.09% -0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily Digest Market Movers: Concerns about Fed's independence keep weighing on the US DollarThe Euro (EUR) has lost ground but remains above Friday's lows, with the US Dollar still vulnerable amid the US Government's attacks on the Fed's independence.Fitc Ratings warned on Monday that the Fed's independence is a key factor supporting the US AA++ sovereign rating and that they will continue monitoring the governance, including "checks and balances," in their assessment of the US ratings.S&P Global Ratings also said that Fed credibility is a key pillar of US sovereign creditworthiness. In a previous report, the rating agency also warned that the US rating would come under pressure if the strength of American institutions is undermined.New York Fed President Johnsn Williams provided some support for the US Dollar on Monday, stating that recent Fed decisions have moved “the modestly restrictive stance closer to neutral” and that he expects a healthy economy in 2026. Williams also said that he sees monetary policy well-positioned to support the stabilisation of the labour market, and that he sees no reason to cut interest rates anytime soon.The market is pricing a 95% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, and hopes of a rate cut in March have dropped to 24% from 41% one week ago, according to data released by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool.The release of the US CPI report, due later on Tuesday, might shed some more light on the Fed's monetary policy path. Headline inflation is seen growing steadily at a 2.7% yearly pace, while core inflation, the most relevant from the monetary policy perspective, is seen ticking up to 2.7% YoY, from 2.6% in November.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD holds within the descending channelEUR/USD 4-Hour ChartThe EUR/USD pair keeps the broader bearish trend from late December highs intact. The pair failed to breach resistance at 1.1700 and returned to the mid-range of the 1.1600s. Technical indicators are mixed on the 4-hour chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the signal line, but the histogram bars are contracting, which highlights a waning upside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pulled back below 50, showing a neutral-to-bearish stance.The intraday low, at 1.1653, is likely to provide some support, ahead of Friday's low of 1.1618 and the channel's bottom, now at the 1.1600 area. To the upside, trendline resistance is now at 1.1694, a few pips below Monday's high. A confirmation above this level clears the path towards the January 6 high, at the 1.1740 area.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Investors sold the US Dollar across the board on Monday’s early trading, following a report by the New York Times affirming that the US Government was initiating a criminal investigation against the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell.
The action marks an escalation in an extended conflict between US President Donald Trump and Powell, which raises questions about the central bank’s independence and threatens the status of the US Dollar as a reserve currency. Macroeconomic data is expected to return to the focus on Tuesday, as the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) releases the December US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Price pressures are expected to have remained well above the Fed’s 2% target, with core inflation ticking up. Barring surprises, these figures are likely to endorse the positions of the Fed's hawkish party. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.03% -0.04% 0.43% -0.01% 0.09% -0.11% -0.00% EUR -0.03% -0.06% 0.41% -0.04% 0.06% -0.14% -0.03% GBP 0.04% 0.06% 0.47% 0.03% 0.13% -0.08% 0.03% JPY -0.43% -0.41% -0.47% -0.43% -0.34% -0.55% -0.43% CAD 0.01% 0.04% -0.03% 0.43% 0.10% -0.11% 0.00% AUD -0.09% -0.06% -0.13% 0.34% -0.10% -0.20% -0.09% NZD 0.11% 0.14% 0.08% 0.55% 0.11% 0.20% 0.11% CHF 0.00% 0.03% -0.03% 0.43% -0.00% 0.09% -0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily Digest Market Movers: Concerns about Fed's independence keep weighing on the US DollarThe Euro (EUR) has lost ground but remains above Friday's lows, with the US Dollar still vulnerable amid the US Government's attacks on the Fed's independence.Fitc Ratings warned on Monday that the Fed's independence is a key factor supporting the US AA++ sovereign rating and that they will continue monitoring the governance, including "checks and balances," in their assessment of the US ratings.S&P Global Ratings also said that Fed credibility is a key pillar of US sovereign creditworthiness. In a previous report, the rating agency also warned that the US rating would come under pressure if the strength of American institutions is undermined.New York Fed President Johnsn Williams provided some support for the US Dollar on Monday, stating that recent Fed decisions have moved “the modestly restrictive stance closer to neutral” and that he expects a healthy economy in 2026. Williams also said that he sees monetary policy well-positioned to support the stabilisation of the labour market, and that he sees no reason to cut interest rates anytime soon.The market is pricing a 95% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, and hopes of a rate cut in March have dropped to 24% from 41% one week ago, according to data released by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool.The release of the US CPI report, due later on Tuesday, might shed some more light on the Fed's monetary policy path. Headline inflation is seen growing steadily at a 2.7% yearly pace, while core inflation, the most relevant from the monetary policy perspective, is seen ticking up to 2.7% YoY, from 2.6% in November.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD holds within the descending channelEUR/USD 4-Hour ChartThe EUR/USD pair keeps the broader bearish trend from late December highs intact. The pair failed to breach resistance at 1.1700 and returned to the mid-range of the 1.1600s. Technical indicators are mixed on the 4-hour chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the signal line, but the histogram bars are contracting, which highlights a waning upside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pulled back below 50, showing a neutral-to-bearish stance.The intraday low, at 1.1653, is likely to provide some support, ahead of Friday's low of 1.1618 and the channel's bottom, now at the 1.1600 area. To the upside, trendline resistance is now at 1.1694, a few pips below Monday's high. A confirmation above this level clears the path towards the January 6 high, at the 1.1740 area.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:33 France Budget Balance: €-155.4B (November) vs previous €-136.17B
France Budget Balance: €-155.4B (November) vs previous €-136.17B
10:10 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers around $85.50 near record highs
Silver price (XAG/USD) remains steady, slightly below record highs, trading around $85.20 per troy ounce during the European hours on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price maintains its position near the record high of $86.26, recorded on Monday.Safe-haven demand increases as President Trump announced to impose 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran.US Consumer Price Index data for December is due later in the North American session.Silver price (XAG/USD) remains steady, slightly below record highs, trading around $85.20 per troy ounce during the European hours on Tuesday. Precious metals, including Silver, are drawing investors as safe-haven demand rises amid escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December due later in the North American session.President Trump said on Monday that he would impose 25% tariffs on goods from any country doing business with Iran, stepping up pressure on Tehran amid widespread domestic protests. He added that the measure would take effect immediately, without providing further details. Trump warned on Sunday that action may be required before any meeting, even as he said Iran’s leadership had reached out seeking “to negotiate” after his military threats.The grey metal price rises as traders adopt caution after US federal prosecutors threatened to indict Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his comments to Congress regarding a building renovation project, raising questions about the central bank’s independence. The Trump administration has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates, with Powell calling the threat a “pretext” to influence policy.The non-interest-bearing Silver gains ground as markets are pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, starting in June, though an upside inflation surprise could curb easing prospects. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that the Fed funds futures price indicates a 95% probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
09:46 WTI reaches six-week highs near $60.00 on supply fears, US tariffs
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the fourth successive session, trading around $59.70 per barrel during the European hours on Tuesday.
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WTI price climbs to six-week highs amid supply concerns after US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs targeting Iran’s trading partners.President Trump said on Monday that he would impose 25% tariffs on goods from any country doing business with Iran, stepping up pressure on Tehran amid widespread domestic protests. He added that the measure would take effect immediately, without providing further details.Iran, one of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) largest producers, is grappling with its biggest anti-government protests in years. Trump said on Sunday that Iran’s leadership had reached out seeking “to negotiate” after his threats of military action, but warned that “we may have to act before a meeting.”Geopolitical tensions intensified after Russian forces attacked Ukraine’s two largest cities early Tuesday, Ukrainian officials said. Supply concerns also grew as Kazakhstan’s output faces headwinds from adverse weather, maintenance work, and damage to Russian infrastructure linked to Ukrainian strikes.Reuters cited a source familiar with the matter saying Exxon Mobil remains interested in visiting Venezuela and is ready to send an assessment team, a day after US President Donald Trump said he might bar the company from the country. Exxon CEO Darren Woods said at a White House meeting on Friday that Venezuela would need to enact legal reforms and protect investments before Exxon commits to operating there. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:44 Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 41,307.02 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 41,425.11 it cost on Monday.The price for Gold decreased to PKR 481,797.00 per tola from PKR 483,174.30 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in PKR1 Gram41,307.0210 Grams413,068.80Tola481,797.00Troy Ounce1,284,839.00FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
09:15 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Flat lines below 1.3900; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus
The USD/CAD pair lacks any firm intraday directional bias and oscillates in a narrow band below the 1.3900 mark heading into the European session on Tuesday.
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Spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled the previous day's pullback from the highest level since December 5, touched last Friday, as traders keenly await the release of the US inflation figures.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due later today and will be followed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. Heading into the key data risk, the US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction following the previous day's decline and turns out to be a key factor supporting the USD/CAD pair. However, concerns about the Fed's independence cap any further USD gains. Moreover, the recent rise in Crude Oil prices underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a headwind for the currency pair.From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair trades beneath the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is sloping downward and maintaining a bearish tilt. The said SMA is pegged near the 1.3890 region, and rebounds remain capped by it. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the Signal line and slightly above zero, while the positive histogram has begun to contract, hinting at moderating upside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 59, above the midline, which reinforces a mildly bullish tone without reaching overbought.Measured from the 1.4134 high to the 1.3646 low, Fibonacci retracements act as overhead barriers, with the 50% at 1.3890 and the 61.8% at 1.3948 capping rallies. A daily close above 1.3948 could expose the 78.6% retracement at 1.4030, whereas repeated failure below 1.3890 would keep the pair consolidating under resistance. Overall, momentum has improved, but the declining SMA and clustered Fibonacci levels constrain the advance, and bulls would need a decisive break of these overhead retracements to extend gains.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)USD/CAD daily chart Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jan 13, 2026 13:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.7% Previous: 2.7% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
09:11 US Dollar Index steadies near 99.00 as traders eye inflation data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding gains after registering modest losses in the previous session. The DXY is hovering around 99.00 during the early hours on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US Dollar Index gains as traders adopt caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index data.The Greenback may weaken as markets price in two Fed rate cuts this year, starting in June.New York Fed President John Williams said policy is well-positioned to curb inflation without harming jobs.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding gains after registering modest losses in the previous session. The DXY is hovering around 99.00 during the early hours on Tuesday. Traders await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December due later in the North American session, which could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path.The Greenback faced challenges amid expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed). December’s slower-than-expected US jobs growth suggests the US central bank could hold interest rates steady later this month.Markets are pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, starting in June, though an upside inflation surprise could curb easing prospects. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that the Fed funds futures price indicates a 95% probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said late Monday that US monetary policy is “well-positioned” to steer inflation back to its target without damaging employment. Williams indicated there is no immediate need to resume interest-rate cuts as the central bank edges closer to a neutral policy stance.The US Dollar also faced challenges amid rising concerns over the Fed’s independence after federal prosecutors threatened to indict Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony on a building renovation, a move Powell has described as an attempt to undermine the central bank’s independence.Traders are watching rising Middle East tensions after US President Donald Trump said Iran’s leadership sought to “negotiate” following his military threats, while warning that action may come before any meeting. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
09:08 NZD/USD drifts higher above 0.5750 as Fed faces challenges
The NZD/USD pair trades on a firmer note near 0.5770 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) remains under selling pressure against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) amid renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence.
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Fed’s Powell called subpoenas a pretext for interest rate influence. New Zealand’s Business Confidence jumped to 48% QoQ in Q4 2025, the highest level since March 2014.The NZD/USD pair trades on a firmer note near 0.5770 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) remains under selling pressure against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) amid renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence.The “Sell America” trade resumes after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he’s under criminal investigation, which traders see as a sign of US President Donald Trump’s interest in stripping away the central bank’s political independence. Powell said on Sunday that the Fed has received subpoenas from the Justice Department over statements he made to Congress last summer on cost overruns for a $2.5 billion building renovation project at the central bank's headquarters in Washington. He termed the threats a "pretext" for putting pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates.According to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, the country’s business confidence jumped to 48% QoQ in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, the highest level since March 2014, lifting hiring and investment intentions. This reading provides some support to the Kiwi against the USD. The release of the US December Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will take center stage later on Tuesday. Both headline and core CPI are projected to show an increase of 2.7% year-over-year. Hotter-than-expected US CPI readings generally strengthen the Greenback against the NZD in the near term. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
09:08 Forex Today: Japanese Yen – a big loser; eyes turn to US CPI data
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, January 13:
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, January 13:Ahead of the European opening bells, the US Dollar (USD) pauses its late recovery seen in Monday’s North American session. The Greenback enters a consolidative mode as traders switch to the sidelines amid a typical market caution before the first US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report of this year. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% -0.05% 0.38% -0.03% 0.09% -0.13% -0.01% EUR -0.04% -0.09% 0.35% -0.07% 0.04% -0.17% -0.05% GBP 0.05% 0.09% 0.43% 0.02% 0.14% -0.08% 0.04% JPY -0.38% -0.35% -0.43% -0.41% -0.30% -0.52% -0.39% CAD 0.03% 0.07% -0.02% 0.41% 0.11% -0.10% 0.01% AUD -0.09% -0.04% -0.14% 0.30% -0.11% -0.21% -0.10% NZD 0.13% 0.17% 0.08% 0.52% 0.10% 0.21% 0.12% CHF 0.00% 0.05% -0.04% 0.39% -0.01% 0.10% -0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Following a mixed December labor market report, the US inflation data is eagerly awaited to determine whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will opt for an interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 amid receding odds for such a move.The US Core Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 2.7% on an annual basis in December. The monthly core CPI is set to increase by 0.3% in the same period after reporting a 0.2% growth in November. The headline CPI inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.7%. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on the central bank's renovation of its Washington headquarters and Powell’s retaliation deepen the feud and keep concerns over the Fed’s independence alive.Markets also digest the latest geopolitical developments surrounding the Iranian civil unrest and the Greenland issue.US President Donald Trump warned in a post on Truth Social on Monday,"effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America.”While speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump once again openly pushed for the US to acquire Greenland, dismissing Denmark’s role and warning that the Arctic island could otherwise fall under Russian or Chinese influence. Related news CPI Data expected to show stable inflation in December with limited implications for Fed policy Gold Price Forecast: Will US CPI data fuel another XAU/USD record rally? US President Donald Trump threatens 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran
Across the G10 currency space, AUD/USD gyrates above 0.6700, staying better bid amid a pause in the USD upside and the hawkish expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate outlook.USD/JPY firms up and tests 159.00, sitting at the highest level since July 2024. The Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps falling amid intensifying Japanese political tensions. “Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had conveyed to a ruling party executive her intention to dissolve parliament's lower house at the outset of its regular session scheduled to start on January 23,” per Reuters.The JPY hits record low against Euro (EUR) and the Swiss franc (CHF).EUR/USD trades with caution near 1.1650 amid a data-empty European calendar, while looking forward to the high-impact US CPI data.GBP/USD hovers below 1.3500, with the upside attempts capped by a softer risk tone.Gold is on a profit-taking decline below $4,600, with the daily technical setup still pointing to further bullish potential.WTI is at monthly highs, testing offers at the $60 mark. Traders remain hopeful that heightened concerns surrounding Iran and potential supply disruptions will likely outweigh the potential crude oversupply from Venezuela. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
09:00 Turkey Current Account Balance below expectations ($-3.3B) in November: Actual ($-3.996B)
Turkey Current Account Balance below expectations ($-3.3B) in November: Actual ($-3.996B)
08:31 GBP/USD gathers strength above 1.3450 as Fed independence concerns pressure US Dollar
The GBP/USD pair edges higher to near 1.3470 during the early European session on Tuesday.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
08:12 Japan’s Kiuchi calls for early parliamentary approval of fiscal budget 2026
Japan's economy minister, Minoru Kiuchi, said on Tuesday that the government needs to aim for early parliamentary passage of fiscal budget 2026.
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Japan's economy minister, Minoru Kiuchi, said on Tuesday that the government needs to aim for early parliamentary passage of fiscal budget 2026.Key quotesTakaichi administration's responsible, proactive fiscal policy takes into account fiscal discipline.
Need to aim for early parliamentary passage of fiscal budget 2026.
It does not mean reckless spending.
Cannot say that fiscal policy alone is what determines market developments.
Forex rates are determined by various factors.
Long-term interest rates are also determined by various factors in the market.
Need to carefully see various factors including sustainability of wage growth to make sure Japan does not return to deflation again.
But now not in a state to declare exit from deflation just yet.Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.45% on the day at 158.90. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Need to aim for early parliamentary passage of fiscal budget 2026.
It does not mean reckless spending.
Cannot say that fiscal policy alone is what determines market developments.
Forex rates are determined by various factors.
Long-term interest rates are also determined by various factors in the market.
Need to carefully see various factors including sustainability of wage growth to make sure Japan does not return to deflation again.
But now not in a state to declare exit from deflation just yet.Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.45% on the day at 158.90. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
07:50 GBP/JPY advances to 214.00 mark, highest since August 2008 amid notable JPY weakness
The GBP/JPY cross builds on the previous day's breakout momentum through a nearly three-week-old range and gains follow-through positive traction for the third consecutive day on Tuesday.
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Spot prices have climbed to a fresh high since August 2008, with bulls now looking to extend the ascending trend further beyond the 214.00 mark amid a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY).Reports that Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may soon call a snap election to take advantage of her approval ratings fuel speculations about further expansionary fiscal policy. This comes on top of the uncertainty over the likely timing of the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the deepening Japan–China diplomatic crisis, which, in turn, is seen weighing heavily on the JPY. Moreover, the underlying bullish sentiment across the global equity markets turns out to be another factor undermining the JPY's safe-haven status and pushing the GBP/JPY cross higher.The JPY bears, meanwhile, seem unaffected by expectations that Japanese authorities could step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency. In fact, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said this Tuesday that she shared concerns over the JPY's recent one-sided slide with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and added that the tolerance for weakness was limited. Moreover, the BoJ's hawkish outlook also does little to ease the prevalent selling bias surrounding the JPY, which backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the GBP/JPY cross.The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, benefits from the lack of any meaningful US Dollar (USD) buying interest. This, in turn, validates the near-term positive outlook on the back of the overnight strength beyond the previous multi-year peak, around the 212.15 region, touched last week. From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing overbought conditions and warrants caution for the GBP/JPY bulls. Traders now look to Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey's speech for a fresh impetus amid bets for two more interest rate cuts in 2026. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
07:50 EUR/GBP trades calm near 0.8650 while investors await UK GDP data
The EUR/GBP pair trades in a tight range around 0.8650 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The pair consolidates while investors gauge fresh cues about how monetary policy policies by the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will flair in the near term.
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The pair consolidates while investors gauge fresh cues about how monetary policy policies by the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will flair in the near term.The BoE is expected to keep the monetary policy on a gradual downward path as United Kingdom (UK) employment risks remain intact, while inflationary pressures staying well above the central bank’s 2% target.On Monday, the monthly survey by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) trade body and accountants KPMG showed that labor demand remained soft while wage growth accelerated in December.In 2025, job market conditions remained weak as firms stalled hiring to offset the impact of increase in employers’ contributions to social security schemes.On the economic data front, investors await the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for November, which will be released on Thursday. The UK economy is expected to have remained flat after contracting 0.1% in October. On the same day, investors will also focus on the Industrial and Manufacturing Production data for November.Meanwhile, the major driver for the Euro (EUR) seems to be global market sentiment as the ECB is unlikely to make any adjustment in its monetary policy in the near term, with inflation remaining close to the 2% target. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (MoM) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jan 15, 2026 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0% Previous: -0.1% Source: Office for National Statistics
07:30 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) declined to 2.8% in December from previous 2.9%
Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) declined to 2.8% in December from previous 2.9%
07:30 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Holds gains above 185.00, bullish momentum prevails
The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near 185.20 during the early European session on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY gathers strength around 185.20 in Tuesday’s early European session. Uncertainty over the likely timing of the next rate hike by the BoJ weighs on the Japanese Yen. The cross keeps the constructive outlook above the key 100-day EMA, with a bullish RSI indicator. The initial support level to watch is 183.77. The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near 185.20 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid political uncertainty in Japan after a report that Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early general election in the first half of February. Furthermore, the lack of clear guidance on the timing of future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could undermine the JPY and act as a tailwind for the cross. Markets view the BoJ's approach to ending its ultra-loose monetary policy as very cautious and slow. However, verbal intervention from Japanese authorities might cap the downside for the JPY in the near term. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that she is concerned about the JPY’s one-sided decline with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and added that the tolerance for weakness was limited.Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds well above the rising 100-day EMA at 178.68, keeping the medium-term uptrend intact. The positive slope of the average supports trend continuation. RSI at 66.82 is advancing, confirming firm bullish momentum without overbought conditions. Spot has nudged above the upper Bollinger Band at 185.15, indicating stretched upside. The bands have narrowed in recent sessions, reflecting reduced volatility and could precede a breakout or mean reversion.If momentum fades, initial support aligns with the middle Bollinger Band at 183.77, with the lower band at 182.40 as the next cushion. A push above 70 on the RSI would tilt conditions into overbought and could trigger a pullback toward the mean. The distance to the 100-day EMA offers a deeper floor for the trend if a correction unfolds. Sustained acceptance above the envelope would keep the topside path open and maintain buyer control.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
07:26 USD/CHF dips to near 0.7950 as safe-haven demand supports Swiss Franc
USD/CHF loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 0.7970 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence.
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The pair depreciates as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence.US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Iran’s leadership had reached out to him seeking “to negotiate” following his threats of military action amid widespread anti-government protests in the Islamic Republic. Trump added, however, that “we may have to act before a meeting.”Safe-haven demand increases as the Fed’s independence concerns rise after federal prosecutors threatened to indict Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony on a building renovation, a move Powell has described as an attempt to undermine the central bank’s independence.The downside of the USD/CHF pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) holds gains ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December due later in the day, which could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path.Markets are pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, starting in June, though an upside inflation surprise could curb easing prospects. December’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) missed expectations, reinforcing a more dovish Fed outlook. The CME Group's FedWatch tool suggests that the Fed funds futures price indicates a 95% probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
07:14 Gold consolidates below $4,600, remains close to record high as US CPI report looms
Gold (XAU/USD) is seen consolidating below the all-time peak, touched the previous day, and the $4,600 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday as traders opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures.
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The crucial data might offer more cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path, which, in turn, will influence the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, a generally positive tone around the equity markets acts as a headwind for the safe-haven commodity.Meanwhile, concerns about the Fed's independence keep the USD bulls on the defensive. Moreover, geopolitical risks stemming from the US incursion in Venezuela, US President Donald Trump's threat of military action in response to the unrest in Iran, the White House’s insistence on acquiring Greenland, and the Russia-Ukraine war continue to support the Gold. This suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair remains to the upside, and any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity. However, slightly overbought conditions warrant caution for bulls.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls await US inflation figures for more Fed rate cut cuesA Trump administration criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fueled uncertainty about the US central bank's independence and pushed the safe-haven Gold to a fresh all-time high at the start of this week.Fed Chair, in a rare statement, said that the threat of criminal charges against him is a consequence of US President Donald Trump's anger over the central bank's refusal to cut interest rates despite repeated public pressure.Geopolitical tensions also remained elevated after Trump told reporters that he was considering a range of options, including potential military action, in response to Iran's crackdown on mass anti-government demonstrators.Adding to this, Trump announced late Monday that any country doing business with Iran will face a new tariff of 25% on its exports to the US. This turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the XAU/USD pair.The closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls report released last Friday backed the case for potentially stagnant policy in the first quarter. Traders, however, are still pricing in two more interest rate cuts by the Fed later this year.The outlook, in turn, fails to assist the US Dollar in attracting any meaningful buyers and further lends support to the commodity. The XAU/USD bulls, however, opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures.The headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to have risen by 0.3% in December, and the yearly rate is seen holding steady at 2.7%. Excluding Food and Energy, the core CPI is estimated to edge higher to 2.7% YoY.Any significant divergence in comparison to the broader consensus would lead to a shift in the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the January 28 meeting, which, in turn, would infuse volatility around the USD and the precious metal.Gold could face some resistance near the top end of an ascending channel, around $4,650The ascending channel from $3,920.24 guides the uptrend, with resistance near $4,656.02. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) trends higher, underscoring firm buying bias. The XAU/USD pair holds above the SMA, preserving bullish control. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the Signal line, and both lie in positive territory. The widening positive histogram suggests strengthening momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints at 70.26 (overbought), which could cap gains into the channel ceiling.Trend conditions remain favorable while the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises and price respects it, with the SMA at $4,255.80 acting as nearby support. The MACD above zero reinforces the bullish tone, though momentum could cool as the RSI holds in overbought territory. A pullback would be expected to remain contained above the SMA, whereas a close above the channel cap would open the path for continuation.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
07:07 USD/INR opens slightly higher in countdown to US-India trade talks
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday at around 90.52, ahead of trade talks between the United States (US) and India during the day.
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The USD/INR pair is expected to remain on the sidelines as the impact of the trade meeting outcome will be significant on the Indian Rupee, given that the Indian currency remained the worst-performing Asian currency in 2025 due to hefty tariffs on imports from New Delhi to Washington.On Monday, US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, said that both nations will meet to discuss trade issues on Tuesday. Gor also said that India will be invited to join Pax Silica in February. Gor's announcement of US-India trade talks led to a significant recovery in the Indian equity market. Nifty50 clawed back the intraday decline of almost 250 points or 0.9% and turned positive before closing.In 2025, US President Donald Trump raised import duty on goods from India to 50% after including 25% punitive tariffs for buying oil from Russia, making Indian goods less competitive in the global market. Earlier this month, Trump also threatened that he could raise tariffs on India for not supporting the Russian oil issue.Trade frictions between the US and India had also hit the interest of overseas investors in the Indian stock market. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in eight out of 12 months in 2025, and have extended the pessimism in 2026 too. So far in January, FIIs have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 15,425.22 crore.Daily Digest Market Movers: US Dollar gains ground after a corrective MondayA slight uptick in the USD/INR pair is also driven by marginally higher US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 99.00.On Monday, the DXY corrected sharply from the monthly high of 98.25 after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell was charged by US federal prosecutors for mismanaging funds utilized in the renovation of Washington’s headquarters.In response, Fed Chair Powell has stated that he “carried out my duties without political fear or favor and will continue to do so”, and the “new threat is not about his testimony or the renovation project but a pretext”. Powell clarified that criminal charges against him are a “consequence of the Fed setting interest rates based on its assessment of the public interest rather than the president's preferences”.Renewed tussle between US President Trump and Fed’s Powell prompted concerns over the central bank’s independence and credibility of US assets. Analysts at Fitch Ratings have stated that the Fed’s independence has been a key factor for a strong US credit rating, and an attack on the same could hit the sovereign rating.On the economic front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The US core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is expected to have risen at a faster pace to 2.7% YoY from 2.6% in November, with headline figures growing steadily by 2.7%.In 2025, the Fed reduced interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% to support weakening job conditions, while inflation remained well above the 2% target. As the Fed has loosened monetary conditions to contain employment risks, it is expected to shift its focus to bring inflation under control.In India, the retail CPI data for December came in at 1.33% Year-on-year (YoY), higher than the prior reading of 0.71%, but lower than estimates of 1.5%. Though inflation in India has accelerated, it is still below the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band of 2%-6%, a scenario that could boost hopes of more interest rate cuts in the near term. In 2025, the RBI cut its Repo Rate by 125 basis points (bps) to 5.25% to contain inflation risks.Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays above 20-day EMAIn the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 90.4560. Price holds above the 20-day EMA, which edges higher at 90.2697, maintaining a mild bullish bias. The ascending average supports dips, and a break below it would temper the advance.RSI at 55.75 sits in neutral territory with a slight positive tilt, after easing from prior overbought readings earlier in the sequence. Momentum remains steady, and continued traction above the 20-day EMA at 90.2697 could keep upside risks in play, while a daily close beneath that gauge would point to range-building instead.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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07:00 CPI Data set to show steady US inflation in December, still above Fed’s target
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that prices remained broadly stable in the last month of 2025.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Consumer Price Index is seen rising 2.7% YoY in December.Core CPI inflation should remain sticky well above the Fed’s goal.Investors have so far pencilled in 50 bps of easing this year.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that prices remained broadly stable in the last month of 2025. As always, it’s a key read on inflation and could stir some short-term moves in the US Dollar (USD).That said, it’s unlikely to shift the bigger picture for the Federal Reserve (Fed) just yet. With policymakers still focused primarily on the health of the domestic labour market, the data would probably need to deliver a real surprise to trigger any rethink on monetary policy.What to expect in the next CPI data report?Inflation itself isn’t expected to spring many surprises. Headline CPI is seen rising 2.7% YoY in December, unchanged from the previous month. Strip out the more volatile food and energy components, and the picture is much the same: core inflation is forecast to edge up slightly to 2.7% from 2.6%, still uncomfortably above the Fed’s target.On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI are expected to come in at a fairly steady 0.3%, reinforcing the idea of inflation that’s easing only slowly rather than rolling over.That also helps explain why December’s rate cut was never a slam dunk. The Minutes released on December 30 show a deeply split Committee, with several officials saying the call was finely balanced and that leaving rates unchanged was a very real alternative.Previewing the report, analysts at TD Securities noted, “Following the impact from the government shutdown, we now anticipate the core segment to peak at 3% in Q2. We remain of the view that gradual disinflation will be the story in H2 2026. We expect core CPI inflation to end the year at 2.6%.”How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD?Investors are still chewing over a mixed set of signals from December’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), but that debate is starting to take a back seat. Fresh threats to the Fed’s independence have resurfaced, and they risk overshadowing the significance of Tuesday’s inflation data altogether.Given that the Fed is still keeping a close eye on the labour market, December’s CPI numbers are unlikely to change the policy picture in any meaningful way, unless inflation throws up a genuine surprise, one way or the other.Turning to EUR/USD, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, shared his technical outlook. “If EUR/USD decisively slips below the short-term 55-day moving average at 1.1639, it would open the door to a deeper pullback, with the 200-day SMA at 1.1561 coming into focus sooner rather than later,” he notes. “Below that, attention would turn to the November low at 1.1468 (November 5), followed by the August trough at 1.1391 (August 1).”“On the flip side, a clean break above the December peak at 1.1807 (December 24) would shift the tone back to the upside. That would put the 2025 high at 1.1918 (September 17) on the radar, with the psychologically important 1.2000 level lurking just beyond,” Piovano adds. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Oct 24, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 0.3% Consensus: 0.4% Previous: 0.4% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
06:36 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 13,367.03 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 13,354.78 it cost on Monday.The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 155,910.10 per tola from INR 155,767.50 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram13,367.0310 Grams133,670.40Tola155,910.10Troy Ounce415,760.00FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
06:16 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Falls toward 1.1650 after retreating from moving averages
EUR/USD edges lower after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1660 during the Asian hours on Monday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator at 42.69 sits below the 50 midline and is easing, confirming a bearish tilt.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
06:16 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD climbs to near record high above $85.50 on Fed uncertainty
Silver price ( XAG/USD) holds positive ground around $85.75 during the early European session on Tuesday. The white metal is set to retest a record high as traders pile into safe-haven metals amid renewed concerns over the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and its independence.
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Uncertainty surrounding the US central bank and geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the silver price.US December CPI inflation report will be closely watched on Tuesday. Silver price ( XAG/USD) holds positive ground around $85.75 during the early European session on Tuesday. The white metal is set to retest a record high as traders pile into safe-haven metals amid renewed concerns over the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and its independence.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Sunday that the US Department of Justice has served the central bank with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over Powell’s testimony last June about the Fed’s building renovations. He called the threats a "pretext" aimed at putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. Fed uncertainty ignites safe-haven assets such as Silver in the near term. “We see increased interference with the Fed as a key bullish wildcard for the precious metals in 2026,” said Julius Baer Group’s Carsten Menke. The silver market, smaller in size, is more sensitive to moves in rates and the dollar, so it’s “likely to react more strongly to such concerns,” he added.Rising geopolitical tensions might contribute to Silver’s upside. Civilian protests in Iran are rising, and hundreds have been killed. Iran’s foreign minister claimed security forces had "full control" of the country following two weeks of ongoing upheaval, blaming Israel and the US for fomenting the nationwide protests in which hundreds of people have been killed. Traders will keep an eye on the US December Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which will be released later on Tuesday. This report could offer some hints about the US interest rate path and the next key trigger for market moves. In case of a hotter-than-expected outcome, this could lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
05:33 NZD/USD rises to near 0.5800 following NZIER Q4 Business Confidence
NZD/USD gains ground for the second successive session, trading around 0.5780 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.
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The pair rises as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains support after domestic Business Confidence climbed to 48% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, its highest level since March 2014, up from 18% in the third quarter, according to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion.Christina Leung, principal economist at NZIER, said the survey shows lower interest rates are finally feeding through to the economy and the recovery is gaining traction. Leung added that the improvement in sentiment was broad-based across sectors and regions, Reuters reported.The upside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) edges higher ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December due later in the day. Traders could gain fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path.Markets are pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, starting in June, though an upside inflation surprise could curb easing prospects. December’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) missed expectations, reinforcing a more dovish Fed outlook. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that Fed funds futures price in about 95% probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting.Traders remain cautious amid growing worries about the Fed's independence. Federal prosecutors threatened to indict Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony on a building renovation, raising concerns over the Fed’s independence. Investors are also awaiting a US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, expected on Wednesday. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
05:31 AUD/JPY extends rally to mid-106.00s, highest since July 2024 amid notable JPY weakness
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buying for the third consecutive day and climbs to a fresh high since July 2024, around the 106.50-106.55 region, during the Asian session on Tuesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/JPY continues scaling higher for the third consecutive day amid a broadly weaker JPY.BoJ uncertainty, Japan-China rift, and talks of a snap election in Japan undermine the JPY.The RBA’s hawkish tilt contributes to the AUD’s outperformance and lends additional support.The AUD/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buying for the third consecutive day and climbs to a fresh high since July 2024, around the 106.50-106.55 region, during the Asian session on Tuesday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop favors bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.Against the backdrop of the uncertainty over the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call a snap election, undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY). With Takaichi's popularity running high, a win would likely cement her authority to boost the expansionary fiscal policy. The expectations lift Japan’s Nikkei 225 to a record high, which further dents the JPY's safe-haven status and benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie.Apart from this, a deepening Japan-China rift contributes to the JPY's relative underperformance. In fact, China last week began prohibiting some rare earth elements from being exported to Japan with immediate effect. The ban follows a diplomatic row over Taiwan and heightens supply-chain risk for Japanese manufacturers. The Australian Dollar (AUD), on the other hand, draws support from prospects of a near-term policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).The aforementioned fundamental backdrop validates the near-term positive outlook for the AUD/JPY cross, though intervention fears warrant some caution for bullish traders. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said this Tuesday that she shared concerns over the JPY's recent one-sided slide with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and added that the tolerance for weakness was limited. This fuels speculations that authorities will step in to stem further JPY downfall.Apart from this, firming expectations that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path might hold back the JPY bears from placing fresh bets. Adding to this, slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart could cap any further upside for the AUD/JPY cross. That said, the overnight breakout through the 105.50 intermediate hurdle and a subsequent strength beyond the 106.00 mark suggest that any corrective pullback might now be seen as a buying opportunity. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% -0.08% 0.32% -0.05% 0.02% -0.19% -0.02% EUR -0.04% -0.12% 0.30% -0.07% -0.01% -0.26% -0.06% GBP 0.08% 0.12% 0.38% 0.04% 0.11% -0.10% 0.06% JPY -0.32% -0.30% -0.38% -0.35% -0.28% -0.50% -0.33% CAD 0.05% 0.07% -0.04% 0.35% 0.07% -0.15% 0.02% AUD -0.02% 0.01% -0.11% 0.28% -0.07% -0.21% -0.04% NZD 0.19% 0.26% 0.10% 0.50% 0.15% 0.21% 0.17% CHF 0.02% 0.06% -0.06% 0.33% -0.02% 0.04% -0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
05:17 Japanese Yen drops to fresh one-year low vs. USD amid BoJ uncertainty, election risks
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues its relative underperformance amid speculation that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may soon call a snap election to take advantage of strong approval ratings.
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With Takaichi's popularity running high, a win would likely cement her authority to further boost the expansionary fiscal policy. These expectations lifted Japan’s Nikkei 225 to a record high and undermined the JPY's safe-haven status. Apart from this, the uncertainty over the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the deepening Japan–China diplomatic crisis turned out to be other factors weighing on the JPY.The aforementioned fundamental backdrop drags the JPY to a fresh one-year low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday. However, speculations that Japanese authorities will step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency might hold back the JPY bears from placing fresh bets. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid concerns about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence, which might contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look forward to the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures for a fresh impetus later today.Japanese Yen bears retain control amid BoJ rate hike doubts, political uncertaintyReports suggest that Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early election in the first half of February to bolster her coalition government’s parliamentary majority, fueling hopes for additional stimulus.Last week, China prohibited some rare earth elements from being exported to Japan with immediate effect. The ban follows a diplomatic row over Taiwan and heightens supply-chain risk for Japanese manufacturers.Despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish outlook, investors remain uncertain about the likely timing of the next rate hike. This, along with the risk-on impulse, is seen undermining demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen.Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said this Tuesday that she shared concerns over the JPY's recent one-sided decline with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and added that the tolerance for weakness was limited.Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence resurfaced on Monday after prosecutors opened a criminal investigation against Jerome Powell over his testimony about the central bank building renovation project.Powell, in a rate statement, called the probe unprecedented and said that he believed it was opened due to US President Donald Trump's anger over the Fed's refusal to cut interest rates despite repeated public pressure.This keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive despite firming expectations for a less aggressive monetary policy easing by the US central bank this year, bolstered by the latest monthly employment details released last Friday.Traders are pricing in the possibility of two more rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. This marks a significant divergence compared to expectations that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path and should cap the USD/JPY pair.BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated last week that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with forecasts, leaving the door open for further policy tightening.Investors might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures.USD/JPY technical setup backs the case for a further near-term appreciating moveThe 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to rise, with the USD/JPY pair holding above it, reinforcing a firm bullish bias. The SMA, around the 156.00 mark, offers nearby dynamic support as buyers retain control. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bullish crossover near the zero line, with the histogram turning positive and momentum improving.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.47, strong but not overbought, supporting the upside while leaving room before stretched conditions emerge. As long as USD/JPY holds above its rising SMA, pullbacks would remain contained, and the pair could extend higher; a close back below the average would hint at waning momentum and a move into consolidation.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:55 USD/CAD holds losses below 1.3900 as higher Oil lifts Canadian Dollar
USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.3870 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD slips as commodity-linked CAD gains support from rising Oil prices amid escalating Iran tensions.President Trump warned that countries trading with Iran would face a 25% US tariff.Traders await December US CPI data on Tuesday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.3870 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher Oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price gains ground for the fourth successive session, trading around $59.40 at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices gain traction amid supply concerns, which could be attributed to rising tensions in Iran. Traders brace for the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil stockpiles report later in the day.US President Donald Trump, on Monday, warned countries trading with Iran would face a 25% tariff on business with the United States, following threats of repercussions over civilian targeting, as Tehran cautioned the US and Israel against intervention, per Reuters.The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after registering modest losses in the previous session. Traders await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December due on Tuesday, which could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path.Markets are pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, starting in June, though an upside inflation surprise could curb easing prospects. December’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) missed expectations, reinforcing a more dovish Fed outlook. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that Fed funds futures price in about 95% probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting.The US Dollar weakened after federal prosecutors threatened to indict Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony on a building renovation, raising concerns over the Fed’s independence. Investors are also awaiting a US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, expected on Wednesday. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
04:39 Australian Dollar remains stronger following Westpac Consumer Confidence
The Australian Dollar strengthens against the US Dollar on Tuesday despite Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence falling 1.7% month-over-month (MoM) in January to a three-month low of 92.9, extending December’s sharp 9.0% drop amid shifting rate expectations.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Australian Dollar gains cautious sentiment surrounding RBA outlook.Westpac Consumer Confidence fell 1.7% MoM in January to a three-month low of 92.9, extending December’s 9.0% drop.The US Dollar steadies as traders adopt caution amid Fed concerns.The Australian Dollar strengthens against the US Dollar on Tuesday despite Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence falling 1.7% month-over-month (MoM) in January to a three-month low of 92.9, extending December’s sharp 9.0% drop amid shifting rate expectations.ANZ Job Advertisements declined 0.5% in December, following an upwardly revised 1.5% drop in the prior month. Meanwhile, household spending increased 1.0% month-on-month in November 2025, easing from a revised 1.4% rise in October, as consumers remained cautious amid elevated interest rates and persistent inflation.Australia’s mixed November Consumer Price Index (CPI) left the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook uncertain. However, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said that the November inflation data was largely as expected. Hauser added that interest rate cuts are unlikely anytime soon. Focus now shifts to the quarterly CPI report due later this month for clearer guidance on the RBA’s next policy move.US Dollar struggles amid Fed independence concernsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding ground and trading around 98.90 at the time of writing. Traders await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December due on Tuesday, which could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path.The Greenback faced challenges amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. December’s slower-than-expected US jobs growth suggests the US central bank could hold interest rates steady later this month.US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 50,000 in December, falling short of November's 56,000 (revised from 64,000) and came in weaker than the market expectations of 60,000. However, the Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4.4% in December from 4.6% in November, while the Average Hourly Earnings climbed to 3.8% YoY in December from 3.6% in the previous reading.Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the decline in the unemployment rate was welcome and described job growth as modest but stable. Barkin added that it is difficult to find firms outside healthcare or AI that are hiring and said it remains unclear whether the labor market will tilt toward more hiring or more firing.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview on Thursday that the Federal Reserve should continue cutting rates, arguing that lower rates are “the only ingredient missing” for even stronger economic growth and that the Fed should not delay.The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims rose modestly to 208,000 in the week ended January 3, slightly below market expectations of 210,000 but above the previous week’s revised 200,000. Continuing jobless claims increased to 1.914 million from 1.858 million, indicating a gradual rise in the number of people remaining on unemployment benefits.The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Wednesday that the US Services PMI rose to 54.4 in December from 52.6 in November. This figure came in stronger than the expectations of 52.3.The US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change showed an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, following a revised decline of 29,000 in November. The figure came in slightly below market expectations of 47,000. JOLTS Job Openings came in at 7.146 million in November. This reading followed the 7.449 million openings recorded in October (revised from 7.67 million) and came in below the market expectations of 7.6 million.China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% year-over-year (YoY) in December, up from 0.7% in November but below the 0.9% forecast. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.2%, reversing November’s -0.1% reading. Meanwhile, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1.9% YoY in December, improving from a 2.2% decline previously and slightly beating expectations of a -2.0% print.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported last week that Australia’s Trade Surplus narrowed to 2,936M MoM in November, versus 4,353M (revised from 4,385M) in the previous reading. Exports fell by 2.9% MoM in November from a rise of 2.8% (revised from 3.4%) seen a month earlier. Meanwhile, Imports grew by 0.2% MoM in November, compared to a rise of 2.4% (revised from 2.0%) seen in October.Australian Dollar remains above 0.6700, nine-day EMAAUD/USD is trading around 0.6710 on Tuesday. Daily chart analysis shows the pair rebounded toward an ascending channel, signaling a renewed bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.55 remains above the midpoint, supporting upside momentum.The AUD/USD pair could target 0.6766, its highest level since October 2024. Further gains could see the pair test the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 0.6860.The immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6705, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6634. Further losses would open the downside toward 0.6414, the lowest since June 2025.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.05% -0.08% 0.16% -0.02% -0.01% -0.20% 0.02% EUR -0.05% -0.13% 0.11% -0.07% -0.05% -0.24% -0.03% GBP 0.08% 0.13% 0.21% 0.06% 0.07% -0.12% 0.09% JPY -0.16% -0.11% -0.21% -0.16% -0.16% -0.35% -0.13% CAD 0.02% 0.07% -0.06% 0.16% 0.00% -0.18% 0.03% AUD 0.01% 0.05% -0.07% 0.16% -0.01% -0.19% 0.03% NZD 0.20% 0.24% 0.12% 0.35% 0.18% 0.19% 0.21% CHF -0.02% 0.03% -0.09% 0.13% -0.03% -0.03% -0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:15 WTI edges higher above $60.00 on geopolitical risks
Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $59.55 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price gains traction over one-month highs amid rising tensions in Iran.
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Iranian security forces have killed hundreds of protesters, and Trump said theUS is monitoring the situation “closely.”Markets weigh escalating geopolitical risks against the prospect of additional sanctions supply returning to the market. Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $59.55 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price gains traction over one-month highs amid rising tensions in Iran. Traders brace for the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil stockpiles report on Tuesday. Reuters reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump said that any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the United States. This action came after Trump threatened repercussions if Iranian authorities target civilians, while Tehran warned the US and Israel against any intervention“Markets seem more focused on the intensifying unrest in Iran amid heated rhetoric and resilient fundamentals,” said Amarpreet Singh, Barclays’ analyst. Nonetheless, prospects for more supply from Venezuela might cap the upside for thWTI price. Trump said last week that Venezuela’s interim government agreed to give as many as 50 million barrels of “high-quality, sanctioned oil” to the US. Trump added that the US wants full access to Venezuela’s oil following the arrest of former President Nicolas Maduro by US forces over the weekend. The API crude oil stockpiles report will be the highlight later in the day. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could boost the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, whic might drag the WTI price lower. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Iranian security forces have killed hundreds of protesters, and Trump said theUS is monitoring the situation “closely.”Markets weigh escalating geopolitical risks against the prospect of additional sanctions supply returning to the market. Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $59.55 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price gains traction over one-month highs amid rising tensions in Iran. Traders brace for the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil stockpiles report on Tuesday. Reuters reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump said that any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the United States. This action came after Trump threatened repercussions if Iranian authorities target civilians, while Tehran warned the US and Israel against any intervention“Markets seem more focused on the intensifying unrest in Iran amid heated rhetoric and resilient fundamentals,” said Amarpreet Singh, Barclays’ analyst. Nonetheless, prospects for more supply from Venezuela might cap the upside for thWTI price. Trump said last week that Venezuela’s interim government agreed to give as many as 50 million barrels of “high-quality, sanctioned oil” to the US. Trump added that the US wants full access to Venezuela’s oil following the arrest of former President Nicolas Maduro by US forces over the weekend. The API crude oil stockpiles report will be the highlight later in the day. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could boost the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, whic might drag the WTI price lower. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
03:29 GBP/USD holds steady around 1.3475 as traders seem hesitant ahead of US CPI report
The GBP/USD pair edges higher for the second straight day on Tuesday and looks to build on the previous day's recovery from the 1.3390 region, or a three-week low. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3475 region, up nearly 0.10% for the day.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0103 vs. 7.0108 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.0103 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0108 and 6.9734 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.0103 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0108 and 6.9734 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:14 EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1650 amid Fed independence concerns
The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1665 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Traders digested the US President Donald Trump administration's threat to indict the Federal Reserve (Fed) after Chair Jerome Powell said on Sunday that he’s under criminal investigation.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:27 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD jumps above $4,600 on Fed uncertainty, safe-haven flows
Gold Price (XAU/USD) jumps to near $4,600 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends the rally after retreating from a fresh record high of $4,630 in the previous session amid uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
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Criminal investigation into Fed’s Powell sparks independence crisis, boosting Gold price. Trump threatened a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran.Gold Price (XAU/USD) jumps to near $4,600 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends the rally after retreating from a fresh record high of $4,630 in the previous session amid uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for December will take center stage later on Tuesday.Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Sunday that he’s under criminal investigation, sparking an independence crisis and triggering a flight to safety across global markets. Powell stated that the US Department of Justice had issued subpoenas to the central bank and threatened a criminal indictment related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025 concerning a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's Washington, D.C., headquarters. Powell called the threats a "pretext" aimed at putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.Additionally, tensions between Iran and the US could boost traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold. US President Donald Trump threatened repercussions if Iranian authorities target civilians, while Tehran warned the US and Israel against any intervention. On Monday, Trump announced that any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the US. Traders brace for the US CPI inflation data on Tuesday. The headline and core CPI are expected to see a rise of 2.7% YoY in December. Any signs of hotter inflation in the US could lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
01:51 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥3137.8B (November) vs ¥2476.4B
Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥3137.8B (November) vs ¥2476.4B
01:50 Japan Bank Lending (YoY) registered at 4.4% above expectations (4.1%) in December
Japan Bank Lending (YoY) registered at 4.4% above expectations (4.1%) in December
01:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. below expectations (¥3594B) in November: Actual (¥3.674B)
Japan Current Account n.s.a. below expectations (¥3594B) in November: Actual (¥3.674B)
01:46 Japan’s Katayama raises concerns over weak Japanese Yen with the US
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that she had held a bilateral discussion with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and confirmed she had raised the issue directly with US officials in Washington.
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Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that she had held a bilateral discussion with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and confirmed she had raised the issue directly with US officials in Washington.Key quotesRaises concerns over weak yen with Washington.
One-sided FX moves unacceptable.
Confirms bilateral meeting with US Treasury’s Bessent
Yen strengthens following verbal intervention.
Officials signal tolerance for weakness is limited.Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.05% on the day at 157.96. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
One-sided FX moves unacceptable.
Confirms bilateral meeting with US Treasury’s Bessent
Yen strengthens following verbal intervention.
Officials signal tolerance for weakness is limited.Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.05% on the day at 157.96. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
01:35 US President Donald Trump threatens 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran
US President Donald Trump said that any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the United States, effective immediately, Reuters reported on Monday.
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US President Donald Trump said that any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the United States, effective immediately, Reuters reported on Monday."Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 98.90, down 0.24% on the day. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
01:26 USD/JPY holds positive ground above 158.00 amid Japan's political concerns
The USD/JPY pair trades in positive territory near 158.10 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) softens against the US Dollar (USD) amid political concerns in Japan.
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Reports that Japan's Prime Minister may call an early general election weigh on the Japanese Yen. Fed’s Powell accused the government of using the legal system against the US central bank. The USD/JPY pair trades in positive territory near 158.10 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) softens against the US Dollar (USD) amid political concerns in Japan. Traders will closely monitor the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for December, which is due later on Tuesday. Reuters reported on Sunday that Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early general election, and it could be held as early as February. This would be the first time for the conservative Takaichi to face the voters, giving her an opportunity to capitalize on the strong public approval ratings she has enjoyed since taking office in October. Concerns about political uncertainty in Japan might undermine the JPY and create a tailwind for the pair in the near term. On the other hand, renewed questions about the Federal Reserve (Fed) independence could drag the Greenback lower. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment related to the central bank headquarters renovation. Powell called the threats a "pretext" aimed at putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. Fitch Ratings said on Monday it views the US central bank's independence as a key supporting factor for its AA+ U.S. sovereign rating."This open warfare between the Fed and the U.S. administration ... it's clearly not a good look for the U.S. dollar," said Ray Attrill, National Australia Bank's head of currency strategy. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
01:15 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence increased to -1.7% in January from previous -9%
Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence increased to -1.7% in January from previous -9%
01:12 Fed’s Williams: Inflation to cool later this year and hit 2% in 2027
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said late Monday that US monetary policy is now “well positioned” to guide inflation back to target without harming jobs. Williams signaled no urgency to resume interest-rate cuts as the central bank moves closer to a neutral policy stance.
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Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said late Monday that US monetary policy is now “well positioned” to guide inflation back to target without harming jobs. Williams signaled no urgency to resume interest-rate cuts as the central bank moves closer to a neutral policy stance.Key quotesExpects unemployment rate to stabilize this year.
Expects active usage of Federal Reserve repo operations.
Economic outlook is quite favorable in 2026.
Federal Reserve policy decisions will be driven by incoming data. Tariff impacts should diminish in 2026.
Imperative to get inflation back to 2%.
Inflation to peak at 2.75 to 3 percent in first half of year.
Tariff inflation largely borne by Americans.
Outside of tariffs, inflation trends mostly favorable.
Downside job risks increasing as inflation risks have diminished.
Inflation to cool later this year and hit 2% in 2027.
US likely to grow between 2.5% and 2.75% in 2026.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 98.90, down 0.24% on the day. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Expects active usage of Federal Reserve repo operations.
Economic outlook is quite favorable in 2026.
Federal Reserve policy decisions will be driven by incoming data. Tariff impacts should diminish in 2026.
Imperative to get inflation back to 2%.
Inflation to peak at 2.75 to 3 percent in first half of year.
Tariff inflation largely borne by Americans.
Outside of tariffs, inflation trends mostly favorable.
Downside job risks increasing as inflation risks have diminished.
Inflation to cool later this year and hit 2% in 2027.
US likely to grow between 2.5% and 2.75% in 2026.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 98.90, down 0.24% on the day. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
00:41 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Breaks higher to 213.00 as risk-off sinks JPY
The GBP/JPY rises on Monday, courtesy of a risk-off mood that weighed on safe-haven peers like the Japanese Yen and the Dollar, which are trading softer against most currencies. At the time of writing the cross-pair trade at 212.88 up 0.61%.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/JPY rallies above the 210.00–212.00 range as risk-off sentiment weakens the Yen.Bullish breakout targets 213.00 and 213.50, with momentum favoring further upside.Support rests at 212.00, then 211.00 and the 20-day SMA near 210.68.The GBP/JPY rises on Monday, courtesy of a risk-off mood that weighed on safe-haven peers like the Japanese Yen and the Dollar, which are trading softer against most currencies. At the time of writing the cross-pair trade at 212.88 up 0.61%. Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% -0.02% -0.06% 0.00% 0.06% -0.08% -0.05% EUR 0.03% 0.02% -0.04% 0.03% 0.10% -0.03% -0.01% GBP 0.02% -0.02% -0.02% 0.02% 0.08% -0.07% -0.01% JPY 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.05% 0.11% -0.05% 0.02% CAD -0.01% -0.03% -0.02% -0.05% 0.06% -0.09% -0.02% AUD -0.06% -0.10% -0.08% -0.11% -0.06% -0.14% -0.09% NZD 0.08% 0.03% 0.07% 0.05% 0.09% 0.14% 0.06% CHF 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% -0.02% 0.02% 0.09% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY technical picture is bullish after the pair cleared the top of the 210.00-212.00 trading range, pushing the pair to new yearly highs of 212.93, with buyers eyeing the 213.00 mark. Once surpassed, the next stop would be 213.50 mark, ahead of 214.00.On the flip side, the GBP/JPY first support would be the 212.00 figure. A breach of the latter would clear the way to challenge 211.00, followed by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 210.68. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the 50-day SMA at 207.36.GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily GBP/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
00:09 Gold smashes $4,600 record as Powell charges ignite have af frenzy
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies to new record high past $4,600 on Monday due to safe-haven flows courtesy of the US Department of Justice, which presented charges against the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the building’s renovations. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4606, up more than 2%.
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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4606, up more than 2%.Bullion soars over 2% as legal action against the Fed Chair and rising geopolitical tensions trigger extreme risk aversion.Risk aversion pushed the non-yielding metal to record high following a headline at the New York Times that “Federal Prosecutors Are Said to Have Opened Inquiry into Fed Chair Powell.”The Fed Chair Jerome Powell released a video, saying that the threat “is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve building.” He added that the reasons behind the indictment “are pretexts” by the Trump administration.Powell said that “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”Ahead of the US session open, market participants trimmed their expectations that the Fed will cut rates only 48 basis points, contrary to the 55 bps seen before Wall Street opened.Geopolitical tensions added to the risk-off mood as Trump warned Iran to not cross the line, as he weighs potential responses to Tehran. This and his comments about Greenland, pushed Bullion towards a record high.Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the release of inflation figures, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, housing data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials.Daily digest market movers: Gold surges in tandem with US yieldsGold price soars even though the US 10-year Treasury yield rises nearly one and a half basis points up at 4.179%.Last week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that December’s Nonfarm Payrolls created 50,000 jobs, undershooting forecasts of 60,000 and easing from the prior 64,000 increase. Despite this, the Unemployment Rate dipped to 4.4% from 4.6%, coming in below expectations of 4.5%, tempering concerns about labor market deterioration.US Consumer Sentiment in January, revealed by the University of Michigan Consumer rose to 54 from December’s final 52.9, beating forecasts of 53.5. Inflation expectations for one-year expectations held steady at 4.2%, while five-year expectations climbed to 3.4% from 3.2%.Given the backdrop, investors have priced 50 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Fed interest rate probability - Source: Prime Market TerminalTechnical analysis: Gold price surges past $4,600, on strong buyingGold’s technical picture has not changed, with the uptrend remaining in place, further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI has turned overbought but not at the most extreme levels of 80, an indication that further upside Is seen it.If XAU/USD stays above $4,600, the first resistance would be the record high at $4,630, followed by $4,650. A breach of the latter will expose $4,700.On the downside, a daily close below $4,600, sellers could push the XAU/USD towards $ could embolden sellers to push prices back toward the $4,450 intraday low, with the January 12 daily low of $4,508, followed by $4,450 threshold emerging as the next key downside target.Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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