Forex News Timeline

Friday, July 18, 2025

GBP/USD gains ground after registering small losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3440 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) edges lower due to dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

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The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) edges lower due to dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Daly added that rates will eventually settle at 3% or higher, which is higher than the pre-pandemic neutral rate.Fed Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that he believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later.However, the US Dollar gained ground following the stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales data released on Thursday. US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June versus -0.9% prior. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the annual Retail Sales climbed 3.9%, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Building Permits, and Housing Starts will be eyed later on Friday.The GBP/USD pair also drew support as the Pound Sterling (GBP) received support from a mixed United Kingdom (UK) job market report, which showed more employment levels but also a higher unemployment rate.The UK ILO Unemployment rose to 4.7% in the three months to May, against the market expectations of remaining unchanged at 4.6%. Claimant Count Change showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits increased 25.9K in June, compared with a revised increase of 15.3K in May, above the expected 17.9K figure. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains close to an over three-month low touched earlier this week.

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Traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of Japan's upper house election over the weekend. In the meantime, the JPY moves little following the release of the latest consumer inflation figures from Japan earlier today. The growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would forgo raising interest rates this year continues to act as a headwind for the JPY. Apart from this, the risk-on environment contributes to capping the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, trades with a negative bias below its highest level since June 23, touched on Thursday in the wake of Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller's dovish remarks and acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.Japanese Yen struggles for a firm intraday direction amid domestic political uncertaintyHouse of Councillors elections are scheduled to be held in Japan this Sunday, on July 20. This is seen as a critical mid‑term test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s embattled coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito.Recent media polls suggest that the shaky minority government will likely lose its majority, heightening the risk of political instability and stoking fears of an increase in debt, amid calls from the opposition to boost spending and cut taxes. This comes at a time when Japan is struggling to strike a trade deal with the US and might complicate the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy normalization path, which continues to undermine the Japanese Yen amid the upbeat market mood. Meanwhile, the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau this Friday showed that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% YoY in June and the gauge excluding fresh food prices arrived at 3.3%, down from 3.7% prior.Furthermore, CPI ex Fresh Food and Energy rose 3.4% during the reported month compared to the reading of 3.3% in May. The data offers some relief to the BoJ, which is set to update its inflation projections at the July policy meeting. Meanwhile, traders have been scaling back their expectations for an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve amid the evidence that the Trump administration's increasing import taxes are passing through to consumer prices.Fed governor Adriana Kugler said on Thursday that the still-restrictive policy stance is important to keep longer-run inflation expectations anchored, and it will be appropriate to hold the policy rate at the current level for some time.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, noted that rate cuts might be difficult in the short run and that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain as tariff adjustments could take months.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that despite the overall progress on inflation, the central bank still has some work to do on inflation. Whether the rate cut happens in July or September isn't most relevant, Daly added further. Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that rising risks to the economy favour easing the policy rate and the central bank should cut its interest rate target in July amid evidence that the labour market is growing weaker.This, in turn, drags the US Dollar away from a fresh monthly high, touched on Thursday following the release of upbeat US macro data, and keeps the USD/JPY pair below its highest level in more than three months. Traders now look to the release of Preliminary Michigan US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations, and the US housing market data – Building Permits and Housing Starts – for some impetus later this Friday. USD/JPY needs to find acceptance above 149.00 for bulls to retain near-term controlFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair showed some resilience below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) earlier this week, and the subsequent move up favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. However, the overnight failure to build on the momentum beyond the 149.00 mark warrants some caution. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 149.15-149.20 region, or a multi-month peak, before positioning for a move towards reclaiming the 150.00 psychological mark.On the flip side, the 148.20-148.25 region, or the 100-hour SMA, could offer immediate support ahead of the 148.00 mark. Some follow-through selling, leading to a slide below the 147.70 area, could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards testing sub-147.00 levels. Acceptance below the latter might shift the bias in favor of bearish trades and drag spot prices to the 146.60 intermediate support en route to the 146.20 area, the 146.00 mark, and the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the 145.80 region. Economic Indicator National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 17, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.3% Consensus: 3.3% Previous: 3.7% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances on Friday, recovering its more than 0.5% losses from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges due to dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

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The AUD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges due to dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Daly added that rates will eventually settle at 3% or higher, which is higher than the pre-pandemic neutral rate.Fed Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that he believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later.However, FOMC Governor Adriana Kugler said that the US central bank should not lower interest rates "for some time" since the effects of Trump administration tariffs are starting to show up in consumer prices. Kugler added that restrictive monetary policy is essential to keep inflationary psychology in line.Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar edges lower ahead of UoM Consumer SentimentThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is edging lower and trading at around 98.50 at the time of writing. Traders will likely observe the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Building Permits, and Housing Starts later on Friday.US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June versus -0.9% prior. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the annual Retail Sales climbed 3.9%, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May.US Producer Price Index (PPI) was unexpectedly unchanged in June, against the market consensus of a 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the core PPI rose by 2.6% YoY versus 3.0% prior, softer than the 2.7% expected.The latest Fed Beige Book shows that while overall business activity remains healthy and inflation pressures are relatively subdued, underlying cost pressures are building, and business operators remain cautious.US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he plans to send letters to over 150 countries, notifying them of a 10% tariff rate they will face. He emphasized that these are "not big countries" with limited trade ties to the US, unlike China or Japan. He also hinted the rate could rise to 15–20%, though he did not confirm any specifics.President Trump said in an interview with the Real America's Voice network on Wednesday that he would love for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to resign, but that it would disrupt the markets if the president were to remove him. He also mentioned the possibility of striking a deal with Europe. Regarding tariffs on Canada, he said it’s too soon to comment. A tariff deal with India, however, is very close.China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.2% in the second quarter, compared to a 5.4% growth in the first quarter and the expected 5.1% growth. Meanwhile, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate rose 1.1% in Q2, against the market consensus of a 0.9% increase. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 4.8% YoY in June, against the 5.6% expected and 6.4% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 6.8%, against the 5.6% expected.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that seasonally adjusted Employment Change was 2K in June, recovering from a previous decline of 2.5K in May, though falling way short of the expected 20K new jobs. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% from 4.1% prior. The figure came in above the market consensus of 4.1%.Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, which climbed 0.6% month-over-month in July, following a 0.5% gain in June. This marked a third consecutive monthly increase, signaling a modest yet encouraging improvement in consumer outlook.Australian Dollar trades around 0.6500 after rebounding from 50-day EMAAUD/USD is trading around 0.6510 on Friday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicated a bullish bias is active as the pair is positioned within the ascending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 mark, suggesting that market bias is weakening. The pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is weakening.On the downside, the 50-day EMA at 0.6490 is acting as an immediate support. A successful breach below this level would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair to approach the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6460, aligned with the three-week low at 0.6454, which was recorded on July 17.The AUD/USD pair may target the nine-day EMA at 0.6524. A break above this level could strengthen the short-term price momentum and support the pair to approach the eight-month high of 0.6595, which was reached on July 11.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.26% -0.11% -0.04% -0.09% -0.24% -0.28% -0.26% EUR 0.26% 0.15% 0.21% 0.15% 0.05% -0.15% -0.00% GBP 0.11% -0.15% 0.04% 0.02% -0.13% -0.25% -0.13% JPY 0.04% -0.21% -0.04% -0.03% -0.19% -0.35% -0.11% CAD 0.09% -0.15% -0.02% 0.03% -0.17% -0.27% -0.16% AUD 0.24% -0.05% 0.13% 0.19% 0.17% -0.12% -0.01% NZD 0.28% 0.15% 0.25% 0.35% 0.27% 0.12% 0.11% CHF 0.26% 0.00% 0.13% 0.11% 0.16% 0.00% -0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5955 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the Greenback as China’s second-quarter (Q2) growth beats estimates.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD rises to 0.5955 in Friday’s Asian session, up 0.46% on the day. China posted better-than-expected Q2 growth, supporting the China-proxy Kiwi. US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in June, beating the estimates. The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5955 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the Greenback as China’s second-quarter (Q2) growth beats estimates. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be in the spotlight later on Friday, followed by Building Permits and Housing Starts.China posted better-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the face of US President Donald Trump's tariffs. China’s economy expanded by 5.2% YoY in Q2 versus 5.4% prior, the National Bureau of Statistics showed. This reading came in stronger than the estimation of 5.1%. This encouraging Chinese economic report could underpin the China-proxy China, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. Nonetheless, robust US Retail Sales data could lift the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the pair. The US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in June, compared to -0.9% in May. This figure came in below the market consensus of 0.1%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales climbed 3.9% in June versus 3.3% prior. Traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July policy meeting due to the tariff uncertainty triggered by Trump. Financial markets are now pricing in a September starting date for rate cuts, and Fed officials penciled in two easings later this year, according to Reuters. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
 

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1498 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1461 and 7.1736 Reuters estimate.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1498 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1461 and 7.1736 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $66.15 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI edges higher amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about tighter global oil supplies. 

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The WTI edges higher amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about tighter global oil supplies. Reuters reported late Thursday that a drone attack on Kurdistan targeted a Norwegian-operated oil and gas firm in the Tawke, Zakho administration area of northern Iraq, leading to a suspension of production. At this time, the US has refrained from any major counterattacks. Therefore, the situation remains relatively peaceful. Any signs of escalation in this region could raise fears of tight global supply, which might provide some support to the WTI price.US crude oil inventories fell last week, suggesting robust summer demand. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending July 11 fell by 3.859 million barrels, compared to a rise of 7.07 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by 1.8 million barrels.  Nonetheless, the uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff war might cap the upside for the WTI price. Trump said on Wednesday that he intends to send a letter telling more than 150 trade partners what tariff rate they will face. High tariffs could slow down the economy and thereby hurt oil and energy demand, weighing on the oil prices.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of 3.5%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of 3.5%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.Further details unveil that the National CPI ex Fresh food arrived at 3,3% YoY in June versus 3.7% prior. The figure came in line with the market consensus.

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) increased to 3.4% in June from previous 3.3%

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 3.5% to 3.3% in June

Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) meets expectations (3.3%) in June

Silver price advanced on Thursday, 0.55% as the Greenback posted solid gains during the North American session, even though Wall Street finished the session with gains.

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Upbeat economic data in the US suggests the economy is strong, though it was not an excuse for the grey metal to climb back above $38.00, poised to end the week almost flat.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom a price action standpoint, XAG/USD remains upwardly biased, but it has consolidated over the last three days, staying glued to the $38.00 figure. A daily close above this level opens the door for an upside recovery.Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicates that buyers are in control; however, the RSI slope remains flat, suggesting a lack of catalysts that could prompt traders to enter long/short positions.For a bullish continuation, Silver must clear the $38.50 level, allowing buyers to test $39.00. Once cleared up, the next lies $39.50 and the $40.00 mark. Conversely, if XAG/USD tumbles below $38.00, the first support would be the June 18 high, now turned support, at $37.31, followed by $37.00 and the 20-day SMA at $36.86.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3740 during the early Asian session on Friday. The dovish remark from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials weighs on the US Dollar (USD).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD softens to around 1.3740 in Friday’s early Asian session. Fed’s Waller said July rate cut justified by rising risks.US Retail Sales rose 0.6% MoM in June, stronger than expected. The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3740 during the early Asian session on Friday. The dovish remark from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials weighs on the US Dollar (USD). Traders brace for the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, followed by Building Permits and Housing Starts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that he believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later. Dovish comments from Fed policymakers could undermine the Greenback against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Financial markets are now pricing in a September starting date for rate cuts and Fed officials penciled in two reductions at their June meeting, according to Reuters. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales might help limit the USD’s losses. Data released by the US Census Bureau on Thursday showed that the US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in June versus -0.9% prior. This figure came in below the market consensus of 0.1%. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales climbed 3.9% in June, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May.Meanwhile, a decline in Crude Oil prices could drag the commodity-linked Loonie lower in the near term. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.  Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

GBP/USD churned around the 1.3400 region on Thursday, grappling with fresh congestion after a brief reprieve from sustained selling pressure. United Kingdom (UK) labor data broadly missed the mark, and US Retail Sales came in stronger than expected.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that he continues to believe that the Fed should cut its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks and the strong likelihood that tariff-induced inflation will not drive a persistent rise in price pressures

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Rising risks to economy favour easing policy rate.
If underlying inflation remains in check and growth tepid, more cuts needed.
The Fed should not wait until labour market hits trouble before cutting rates.
Delaying cuts runs risk of need for more aggressive action later.
Evidence mounting that labour market is growing weaker.
Tariffs likely to have one-time impact the Fed can look through.
July rate cut could give the Fed space to hold rates for a few meetings.
Absent tariff impact, inflation is close to the Fed’s 2% target.
Tariffs will boost inflation in the near term.
Risks include an economic slowdown with GDP around 1%.
Economy calls for monetary policy closer to neutral setting.
Expects tariff impact to fade next year.
Data suggests job market ‘on the edge.’
Upside risks to inflation are limited.
Sustained 10% tariff likely to increase inflation 0.75%–1% this year.
Private sector hiring ‘near stall speed.’Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.14% lower on the day to trade at 98.52. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic expressed further caution about the state of the US economy and potential tariff fallout on inflation metrics in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic expressed further caution about the state of the US economy and potential tariff fallout on inflation metrics in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.Key highlightsEconomic outlook remains highly uncertain.
The economy's tariff adjustment could take months.
Rate cuts might be difficult in the short run.

EUR/USD tumbles during the North American session, down 0.38% following the release of economic data from the United States (US), which triggered a reaction by investors, who trimmed their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates.

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At the time of writing, the pair traded at 1.1598, having reached a high of 1.1642.Risk appetite improved after US President Donald Trump denied rumors that he planned to sack Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. News flows had remained light, though economic data from the US continues to justify the Fed’s current stance, which most officials had revealed as appropriate, as the labor market is solid, Retail Sales improved, and Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed that inflation is on its way to 3%.Before Wall Street opened, Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week came below estimates. At the same time, Retail Sales for June crushed May’s data and economists' forecasts, although the data suggest that increases in goods and services prices may be responsible for the upbeat report.Fed speeches had been grabbing the headlines, with Governor Adriana Kugler, San Francisco Fed Mary Daly, and recently. Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic. He said that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, adding that tariff adjustments are the cause blocking the path to further rate cuts.Across the pond, the Eurozone (EZ) inflation report showed that prices ticked up, but they remain closer to the 2% goal by the European Central Bank (ECB), in contrast to US inflation.Ahead this week, the European economic docket will feature Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) figures as the primary catalyst for the Euro, with estimates suggesting that the disinflation process continued to evolve. In the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is awaited, along with speeches from the Fed.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD struggles at 1.1600 on strong US dataUS economic data showed Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 12 fell from 228K to 221K, below the 235K projected by analysts, with the labor market showing strength amid fears of an ongoing slowdown.Retail Sales in June exceeded forecasts of 0.1% MoM, rose by 0.6% MoM, and crushed May’s 0.9% plunge, as some of the increase reflects higher prices due to tariffs. Inflation on the consumer side was revealed earlier in the week, with prices rising.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler struck a hawkish tone, noting that inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target and that the labor market continues to show resilience. She also warned that CPI inflation is beginning to broaden into core goods, signaling more persistent price pressures.Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly maintained that the US economy is in a solid position. She acknowledged that June’s CPI data reflected some early effects of tariffs but suggested their overall impact on inflation may be limited. Despite elevated inflation and restrictive policy settings, Daly reiterated her support for two rate cuts in 2025.Since last week, several ECB policymakers have voiced their views on the monetary policy outlook. Mario Centeno joined De Guindos, Vujčić, and Villeroy in signaling support for a pause or potential rate cut. Fabio Panetta also backed easing, citing increasing downside risks to growth.In contrast, Isabel Schnabel argued that current rates are appropriately positioned, advocating for a hold—an opinion echoed by Robert Holzmann, who emphasized the need to wait for more data before making any adjustments.EUR/USD technical outlook: Consolidates within the 20 and 50-day SMA, below 1.1600EUR/USD is neutral-biased, with traders unable to decisively break above 1.1600 on the upside or below 1.1550 on the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are gathering momentum.That said, if EUR/USD drops below 1.1550, the next support would be 1.1500, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1490, and the 100-day SMA at 1.1266. Conversely, a rise above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1681 would clear the path to challenge 1.1700, followed by the July 20 daily high at 1.1749, ahead of 1.1800 and the record high of 1.1829. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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