Forex News Timeline

Saturday, July 27, 2024

In Friday's session, the NZD/USD took a slight break from its continual downward trajectory, mildly rebounding to 0.5890.

NZD/USD slightly rebounds, hovering near the 0.5900 mark, but remains under a clear bearish influence.The pair lost more than 4% in July, underscoring a strong bearish outlook.The 0.5850 area is the last barrier against the sellers.In Friday's session, the NZD/USD took a slight break from its continual downward trajectory, mildly rebounding to 0.5890. This brief respite comes after a six-day losing streak that led to a significant bearish turnaround for the currency pair. The overall picture still reveals a strongly bearish influence, given the pair lost over 4% in July, and the bearish crossover of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6050 with the 100-day SMA, which might just inspire the bears further. The daily technical indicators continue to signal a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 24, nestled firmly within oversold territory, which indicates intense selling pressure. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with its flat red bars lends further support to a bearish outlook. As the RSI descends further into the oversold region, there may be a possible corrective momentum on the horizon. NZD/USD daily chart From a daily chart perspective, strong support is noticed at the 0.5880 level and slightly below that at May lows around 0.5850. On the flip side, resistance can now be spotted at the former support level of 0.6000, followed by 0.6050.

Silver ended its two-day losing streak yet finished the week with losses of more than 4%, as investors booked profits in the precious metal space.

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The XAG/USD finished Friday’s session below the $28.00 figure, with gains of 0.31%. XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook The drop below $28.00 has exacerbated further losses on the XAG/USD. Although it remains neutral biased, a deeper correction looms as momentum remains bearish on the sellers' side, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). If XAG-USD slips below $27.00, the next support would be the May 2 low of $26.02, ahead of the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $25.88. Conversely, the grey metal rallies past the $28.00 mark, which can pave the way for a leg-up.  The first resistance would be the July 25 high of $28.91. Once surpasses, the next stop is seen above the $29.00 figure. XAG/USD Price Action – Daily ChartSilver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  

EUR/USD found a slim foothold on Friday, rising one-fifth of one percent at the bell but still ending the overall week in the red, adding into a two-week decline of around 1.12% top-to-bottom.

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The Fiber continues to churn as investors get ready for another rate call from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a key update on European inflation figures as Euro traders try to weigh the odds of another European Central Bank (ECB) rate trim.Forecasting the Coming Week: All eyes are on the Fed’s decision and the NFPComing up next week, key pan-EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation figures will drop on Wednesday, giving investors a key look into when they could expect a follow-up rate cut from the ECB after policymakers gave a 25 basis point trim in June. EU-wide headline HICP inflation for the year ended in July is expected to ease to 2.3% from the previous 2.5% YoY. On the US side, the Fed will also give its latest rate call slated for Wednesday. The US central bank is broadly expected to keep rates on hold in July, but investors will be watching for any large shifts in rhetoric from policymakers. Next Friday will also see US Nonfarm Payrolls, a key data point for pricing out odds of a September rate call. The underlying US PCE inflation remained unchanged at 2.6% on an annualized basis in June, defying the median market expectations of a slight decrease to 2.5%. Short-term PCE inflation also picked up in June, increasing to 0.2% from the anticipated 0.1%. The University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 66.4 in July, marking an eight-month low, which was less of a decline than the expected 66.0, but still lower than the previous 68.4. Additionally, UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 3.0% in July, up from the previous 2.9%. Despite the various indications pointing towards a potential increase in inflationary pressures, the market concluded on Friday that the data did not warrant significant concern. As a result, market sentiment shifted back towards riskier assets, and hopes for a rate cut in September persisted. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the rate markets are still pricing in an unchanged stance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on July 31, with a 100% likelihood of at least a 25-basis-point cut on September 18. There is also a segment of market participants showing optimism for a double cut in September, with a 12% probability of a 50 basis points reduction. Euro PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.24% 0.36% -2.29% 0.87% 2.11% 2.20% -0.44% EUR -0.24%   0.10% -2.55% 0.58% 1.90% 1.87% -0.74% GBP -0.36% -0.10%   -2.75% 0.46% 1.80% 1.76% -0.88% JPY 2.29% 2.55% 2.75%   3.27% 4.57% 4.52% 1.80% CAD -0.87% -0.58% -0.46% -3.27%   1.32% 1.30% -1.32% AUD -2.11% -1.90% -1.80% -4.57% -1.32%   -0.03% -2.63% NZD -2.20% -1.87% -1.76% -4.52% -1.30% 0.03%   -2.56% CHF 0.44% 0.74% 0.88% -1.80% 1.32% 2.63% 2.56%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). EUR/USD technical outlook Despite finding a slim foothold and etching in a thin gain on Friday, the Fiber remains on the low side of a descending channel on daily candlesticks as bulls struggle to find momentum. Overall trend odds lean in favor of buyers as price action continues to hold above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0795, but upside chances are evaporating as EUR/USD slides back from recent peaks that failed to capture the 1.0950 level. With the pair’s last major swing low priced in around the 1.0700, it’s bidders’ game to lose as short pressure continues to build up and try to drag EUR/USD back into the low side. EUR/USD hourly chart EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

GBP/USD floundered on Friday, climbing a scant 0.13% on the day as the Pound Sterling gets weighed down by broad-market expectations of a rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) next week.

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The pair wraps up the trading week down one-half of one percent, adding a second straight week of downside momentum as the pair pulls back from last week’s 12-month high above 1.3000.Forecasting the Coming Week: All eyes are on the Fed’s decision and the NFPThe BoE is set to deliver its first rate cut since March 2020 on Thursday. The UK’s main benchmark rate is expected to shift down 25 basis points to 5.0% from the current 5.25%. Before that, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is due to deliver its own July rate call, and investors are broadly expecting the US central bank to keep rates pinned for one more meeting before kicking off a rate-cutting cycle in September. The core US PCE inflation remained steady at 2.6% year-over-year in June, going against the median market forecast of a decrease to 2.5%. Additionally, near-term PCE inflation accelerated month-over-month in June, increasing to 0.2% from the forecasted 0.1%. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to an eight-month low of 66.4 in July, less than the anticipated 66.0 but still lower than the previous reading of 68.4. The UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also rose to 3.0% in July from the previous 2.9%. Despite indications of potential inflationary pressures, the markets chose not to worry about the figures and instead shifted towards a risk-on sentiment, holding out hope for a rate cut in September. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, rate markets are still pricing in at least a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on September 18, with 100% odds of a hold on July 31. Additionally, there is a 12% chance of a 50-bps double cut in September by a contingent that is particularly hopeful for a rate cut. British Pound PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.24% 0.36% -2.29% 0.87% 2.11% 2.20% -0.44% EUR -0.24%   0.10% -2.55% 0.58% 1.90% 1.87% -0.74% GBP -0.36% -0.10%   -2.75% 0.46% 1.80% 1.76% -0.88% JPY 2.29% 2.55% 2.75%   3.27% 4.57% 4.52% 1.80% CAD -0.87% -0.58% -0.46% -3.27%   1.32% 1.30% -1.32% AUD -2.11% -1.90% -1.80% -4.57% -1.32%   -0.03% -2.63% NZD -2.20% -1.87% -1.76% -4.52% -1.30% 0.03%   -2.56% CHF 0.44% 0.74% 0.88% -1.80% 1.32% 2.63% 2.56%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote). GBP/USD technical outlookCable has fallen back below the 1.2900 handle after backsliding from a 12-month peak near 1.3045 set last week. The pair is down around 1.5% peak-to-trough, but near-term momentum still leans in favor of buyers as price action holds on the high side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2636. Short pressure will be looking to force bids down below the last swing low near 1.2600, while renewed bidding could step in if GBP/USD declines far enough to tap a rising trendling drawn from last October’s bottom bids near 1.2037. GBP/USD hourly chart GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  
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