Forex News Timeline
23:12 Canadian Dollar eases back on data-light Wednesday
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) lost a little bit of ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, paring away Tuesday’s limited gains and putting USD/CAD back in touch range of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as the Dollar-Loonie pairing struggles to find fresh momentum and slumps into lo
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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
23:00 NZD/USD steadies near bottom of range as Dollar weakens on soft inflation and policy concerns
The NZD/USD pair is hovering near the 0.5900 level after giving back earlier gains in Wednesday trading. The pair remains under modest pressure but shows signs of stabilization as price action consolidates near the lower end of the daily range.
The pair trades near the 0.5900 zone after trimming intraday losses amid mixed technical signals.Weak US inflation and speculation of a soft-Dollar policy weigh on the Greenback.Support at 0.5884; resistance seen at 0.5908 and 0.5928 with technicals pointing to possible rebound.The NZD/USD pair is hovering near the 0.5900 level after giving back earlier gains in Wednesday trading. The pair remains under modest pressure but shows signs of stabilization as price action consolidates near the lower end of the daily range. The subdued performance in the Kiwi comes as the US Dollar struggles across the board, weighed down by fresh speculation of a deliberate US Dollar weakening strategy and signs of a cooling inflation trend.Market focus remains on the broader narrative that the Trump administration may be supporting a weaker USD as part of its trade realignment push. Talks between US and South Korean officials regarding FX policy have triggered a wave of USD selling across Asia, adding pressure on the Greenback. The recent dip in US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.3% year-over-year, the softest since February 2021, has also amplified rate cut expectations. Although the Fed is expected to remain on hold in the near term, swaps markets are still pricing in 75 basis points of easing over the next year, down from 125 bp last week.Meanwhile, New Zealand's economic outlook remains clouded by expectations of a dovish shift from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Analysts widely anticipate the RBNZ to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its next policy meeting, citing weaker domestic growth prospects. With no major data from New Zealand this week, NZD price action is driven mostly by external developments, particularly the shifting sentiment around the US Dollar.Technical Analysis
Technically, the NZD/USD pair is trading close to its daily low near 0.5896, within a broader range between 0.5884 and 0.5969. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in neutral territory in the 50s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, signaling downside momentum. However, Bull Bear Power is trending near the zero line, hinting at underlying buy conditions. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stochastic RSI) – Fast also reflects a neutral posture. While the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) points to continued bearishness, both the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are aligned with a bullish bias, supported by the 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 30-day SMA as well. Immediate support levels are seen at 0.5884, 0.5885, and 0.5885, while resistance lies at 0.5908, 0.5920, and 0.5928. With several long-term technical indicators signaling upside potential and the pair trading at a key support area, NZD/USD retains a mildly bullish bias, provided broader USD softness continues.
Technically, the NZD/USD pair is trading close to its daily low near 0.5896, within a broader range between 0.5884 and 0.5969. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in neutral territory in the 50s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, signaling downside momentum. However, Bull Bear Power is trending near the zero line, hinting at underlying buy conditions. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stochastic RSI) – Fast also reflects a neutral posture. While the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) points to continued bearishness, both the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are aligned with a bullish bias, supported by the 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 30-day SMA as well. Immediate support levels are seen at 0.5884, 0.5885, and 0.5885, while resistance lies at 0.5908, 0.5920, and 0.5928. With several long-term technical indicators signaling upside potential and the pair trading at a key support area, NZD/USD retains a mildly bullish bias, provided broader USD softness continues.
22:17 Forex Today: Focus turns to Powell and US hard data
The US Dollar (USD) reversed earlier losses and edged higher on Wednesday, as investors shifted away from risk-linked assets amid continued optimism around US trade policy.
The US Dollar (USD) reversed earlier losses and edged higher on Wednesday, as investors shifted away from risk-linked assets amid continued optimism around US trade policy. The Greenback’s recovery came despite renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, following signs of cooling inflation in April.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 15:
The Dollar Index (DXY) reversed Tuesday’s pullback, revisiting the area beyond the 101.00 hurdle amid further advance in US yields across the curve. Interesting data on the US calendar will feature Retail Sales, Producer Prices, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Business Inventories, the NAHB Housing Market Index, as weel as weekly Initial Jobless Claims. In addition, Chief Powel is due ro speak ahead of Barr.
EUR/USD returned to the 1.1170 zone despite hitting weekly highs well north of 1.1200 the figure in response to the initial offered stance in the US Dollar. German Wholesale Prices are due next, followed by the eurozone’s Employment Change and the second estimate of Q1 GDP Growth Rate.
GBP/USD could not sustain a move to multi-day peaks near 1.3360, easing to the 1.3250 zone afterwards amid marked losses. A busy UK docket will include the release of the preliminary Q1 GDP Growth Rate, followed by Business Investment, Goods Trade Balance, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and Labour Productivity. Additionally, the BoE’s Dhingra is due to speak.
USD/JPY plummeted to the 145.60 zone, or three-day troughs, following the weaker Greenback and higher US and Japanese yields. Foreign Bond Investment and Machine Tool Orders are next on the docket.
AUD/USD briefly revisited the 0.6500 barrier, just to succumb to the selling pressure soon afterwards, ending the day sharply on the defensive. The key labour market report is next in Oz, seconded by Consumer Inflation Expectations.
WTI prices receded modestly but remained close to recent highs in the vicinity of the $64.00 mark per barrel on the back of the increase in US crude oil supplies.
Gold traded well on the defensive, adding to the ongoing weakness and hitting five-week lows near $3,170 per ounce troy, always following steady optimism on the tarde scenario. Silver prices retreated to two-day troughs near the $32.00 mark per ounce amid the persistent choppiness in the price action.
22:13 US yields surge as traders await data, Fed cuts priced out on tariffs uncertainty
US Treasury yields are climbing across the entire yield curve as market participants digest Tuesday’s US inflation data on the consumer side, with traders awaiting the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) April figures and Retail Sales.
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When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
22:02 Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (3.1%) in April: Actual (2.8%)
Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (3.1%) in April: Actual (2.8%)
21:43 US Dollar softens as Gold slides below $3,200 on risk rebound
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, softened near 100.60 on Wednesday as cooler-than-expected inflation and news of ongoing US-South Korea currency discussions pressured the Greenback.
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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, softened near 100.60 on Wednesday as cooler-than-expected inflation and news of ongoing US-South Korea currency discussions pressured the Greenback. Gold extended its sell-off, plunging below $3,200 per ounce for the first time since April 11. A pause in Chinese ETF demand and positive geopolitical sentiment, including Middle East diplomacy and trade optimism with Asia, triggered a broader shift toward riskier assets. Meanwhile, US yields rose, undermining the appeal of non-yielding Gold despite USD weakness. Traders now look ahead to PPI and Retail Sales data later in the week for further clues on the Fed’s next move.Daily digest market movers: Where there is smoke...Gold breaks below $3,200 per ounce for first time since April 11, driven by improved risk appetite and bearish chart patterns.XAU/USD hit $3,182 as Chinese ETF flows halted and optimism over US trade talks with Japan and South Korea weighed on safe-havens.US CPI for April came in soft with headline inflation at 2.3% YoY, below expectations, and core inflation steady at 2.8%.Fed’s Jefferson said inflation progress continues, but outlook has become uncertain due to potential import tariff shocks.Fed Vice Chair reiterates patience, reducing likelihood of three rate cuts in 2025, with markets now pricing just two.US 10-year Treasury yields climbed despite soft inflation, reflecting caution on long-term debt stability.The Trump administration’s preference for a weaker USD is raising speculation of exchange rate pressures on partners.DXY gives up post-China deal gains, now trading near 100.60 after fading bullish momentum and returning bearish appetite.Central banks and institutional demand may provide downside protection for Gold, but momentum favors further retreat.Positive Russia-Ukraine headlines and US-Middle East diplomacy continue to support broader risk-on tone.Currency markets react to reports of US-South Korea exchange rate talks, triggering pressure on the Greenback.Market expectations now show a 49.9% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, with rates seen near 3.25%-3.50% by year-end 2026.US Dollar Index technical analysis: Bears are back
The DXY is exhibiting a bearish signal, trading near 101.00 with minor losses on the day. Price action is currently mid-range between the session low and high of 100.27 and 101.02, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the 50 level, reflecting neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows underlying buy pressure. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Fast) remains elevated in the 80s, and the Ultimate Oscillator sits in the 50s, both suggesting neutral dynamics. The Bull and Bear Power indicator hovers near 0, hinting at mild selling bias. While the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicates some upside potential, the 30-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), along with the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, all lean bearish. Key support levels are noted at 100.68, 100.51 and 100.50, while resistance levels stand at 100.91, 101.42 and 101.87.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, softened near 100.60 on Wednesday as cooler-than-expected inflation and news of ongoing US-South Korea currency discussions pressured the Greenback. Gold extended its sell-off, plunging below $3,200 per ounce for the first time since April 11. A pause in Chinese ETF demand and positive geopolitical sentiment, including Middle East diplomacy and trade optimism with Asia, triggered a broader shift toward riskier assets. Meanwhile, US yields rose, undermining the appeal of non-yielding Gold despite USD weakness. Traders now look ahead to PPI and Retail Sales data later in the week for further clues on the Fed’s next move.Daily digest market movers: Where there is smoke...Gold breaks below $3,200 per ounce for first time since April 11, driven by improved risk appetite and bearish chart patterns.XAU/USD hit $3,182 as Chinese ETF flows halted and optimism over US trade talks with Japan and South Korea weighed on safe-havens.US CPI for April came in soft with headline inflation at 2.3% YoY, below expectations, and core inflation steady at 2.8%.Fed’s Jefferson said inflation progress continues, but outlook has become uncertain due to potential import tariff shocks.Fed Vice Chair reiterates patience, reducing likelihood of three rate cuts in 2025, with markets now pricing just two.US 10-year Treasury yields climbed despite soft inflation, reflecting caution on long-term debt stability.The Trump administration’s preference for a weaker USD is raising speculation of exchange rate pressures on partners.DXY gives up post-China deal gains, now trading near 100.60 after fading bullish momentum and returning bearish appetite.Central banks and institutional demand may provide downside protection for Gold, but momentum favors further retreat.Positive Russia-Ukraine headlines and US-Middle East diplomacy continue to support broader risk-on tone.Currency markets react to reports of US-South Korea exchange rate talks, triggering pressure on the Greenback.Market expectations now show a 49.9% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, with rates seen near 3.25%-3.50% by year-end 2026.US Dollar Index technical analysis: Bears are back
The DXY is exhibiting a bearish signal, trading near 101.00 with minor losses on the day. Price action is currently mid-range between the session low and high of 100.27 and 101.02, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the 50 level, reflecting neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows underlying buy pressure. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Fast) remains elevated in the 80s, and the Ultimate Oscillator sits in the 50s, both suggesting neutral dynamics. The Bull and Bear Power indicator hovers near 0, hinting at mild selling bias. While the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicates some upside potential, the 30-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), along with the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, all lean bearish. Key support levels are noted at 100.68, 100.51 and 100.50, while resistance levels stand at 100.91, 101.42 and 101.87.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
21:37 AUD/USD retreats sharply from 0.6500, back inside the consolidation range
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading near 0.6435 against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, down almost 1%, after failing to break above the 0.6500 psychological level.
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The pair reversed sharply from the session high and has slid back into its familiar consolidation range, reflecting renewed pressure on the Aussie.The pair edged higher during the Asian session after Australia’s Q1 wage growth data beat expectations, with wages rising 3.4% YoY versus a 3.2% forecast. However, the upside was short-lived as the US Dollar regained ground in European and US trading hours.The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the key 100.00 mark earlier on Wednesday, extending the bearish reaction to Tuesday’s softer-than-expected US CPI data, but later recovered modestly to trade near 100.50 as traders refocused on upcoming US economic releases.Meanwhile, market expectations remain firm for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its May 20 meeting, with the ASX RBA Rate Tracker indicating a 54% probability of a 50-basis point cut. This stands in contrast to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious hold, reinforcing the monetary policy divergence narrative.Market participants' eyes will be on Thursday’s key US data, including PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could shape near-term rate expectations and further influence the USD trajectory. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
21:03 USD/KRW gets knocked lower by US-Korea currency talks
USD/KRW snapped lower on Wednesday, declining 2.3% peak-to-trough on the day after rumors emerged that representatives from both the United States (US) and South Korea had directly spoken about FX markets on May 5.
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US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
20:40 Gold price tumbles below $3,200 on trade optimism and rising US yields
Gold price plummeted for the second day out of three on Wednesday, driven mainly by an improvement in risk appetite following positive trade news linked to the United States (US).
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This, along with a bearish technical chart pattern, pushed the yellow metal below the $3,200 figure for the first time since April 11.At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,182, down by more than 2%, as the trade war truce between Washington and Beijing has lifted traders' spirits amid some uncertainty about the global economic outlook.US President Donald Trump’s tour in the Middle East has kept the market mood positive as he strikes deals with various countries. News that deals with Japan and South Korea seem to be close has weighed on the safe appeal of Bullion, as investors shift capital toward riskier assets.This weighed on the non-yielding metal, which has failed to capitalize on US Dollar weakness, as rumors circulated that the Trump administration favors a weaker Greenback. Reports suggested that the White House could pressure other countries to let their currencies appreciate.US Treasury bond yields rose sharply on Wednesday, despite the latest inflation report showing that price measures in April were unchanged on an annual basis compared to March figures.Usually, lower inflation environments push central banks to ease monetary policy. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) wait-and-see stance was further reaffirmed by officials appearing in the news since last Friday. This prompted investors to reduce their bets that the Fed would lower rates two times instead of three.Ahead this week, traders are eyeing the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and US Retail Sales data.Daily digest market movers: Gold price retreats weighed by high US Treasury yieldsUS Treasury bond yields are climbing, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield edging up 5.5 basis points to 4.526%. Meanwhile, US real yields are also surging at 2.234%, up five bps as indicated by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields.The US CPI in April expanded by 2.3% YoY, a tenth below estimates and the previous month's reading, and core metrics remained unchanged at 2.8% YoY.The US-China tariff agreement improved risk appetite and sent Bullion prices plunging. Nevertheless, traders should be aware of recent developments regarding US trade policies and geopolitics, as new catalysts could emerge and push Gold prices in either direction.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) in April is expected to rise from -0.4% to 0.2% MoM. Core PPI, which excludes volatile items, is projected to increase by 0.3%, up from -0.1%.US Retail Sales for April are also eyed, with economists projecting a 0% increase, down from a 1.5% MoM expansion in March.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price to retreat towards $3,000 as double top pattern emergesGold price uptrend has paused due to a ‘double top’ chart pattern forming. Although XAU/USD fell below $3,202, sellers need to protect this level at all costs. If they do, the yellow metal could slip towards the next key support levels at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $3,150, followed by the $3,100 figure. On further weakness, the next target would be $3,000, followed by the “double top” target at $2,950.Conversely, if XAU/USD edges back above $3,200, buyers will face the next resistance at $3,250. If surpassed, the next ceiling level would be $3,300 and beyond. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
20:33 USD/JPY slides as BoJ hawkish shift clashes with Fed dovish tilt
USD/JPY is down for a second straight day on renewed expectations of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY drops below 146.00 as BoJ tightening signals gain traction.Fed dovish tilt pressures the US Dollar after Tuesday’s US CPI missYen Strengthens on BoJ Signals following higher than expected PPI dataUSD/JPY is down for a second straight day on renewed expectations of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening. The move is driven by hawkish remarks from Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and hotter-than-expected April PPI data, which contrast sharply with soft US inflation figures and growing speculation of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading near 145.60, extending its decline from earlier at 146.00 as diverging central bank outlooks weigh on the pair. BoJ hawkishness meets strong PPIOn Tuesday, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reaffirmed the central bank’s readiness to tighten policy further, even amid global uncertainties such as US trade moves. Speaking to lawmakers, Uchida acknowledged that Japan’s underlying inflation and long-term expectations may temporarily stagnate, but pointed to persistent upward pressure from a “very tight” labor market. He emphasized that rising wages and shipping costs will likely be passed on to consumers, supporting a sustainable inflation trend.The Yen extended gains on Wednesday after Japan’s April Producer Price Index (PPI) came in as expected, up 4.0% YoY, highlighting ongoing upstream price pressures. The data, combined with Uchida’s hawkish tone, reinforced expectations that the BoJ may deliver another rate hike. As a result, USD/JPY dropped below 146.00, driven by narrowing yield differentials and growing confidence in the BoJ’s tightening path.Soft US inflation data and dovish Fed signals weigh on the US DollarMeanwhile, in the US, April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in below expectations on Tuesday. Headline inflation rose just 0.2% month-on-month, below the 0.3% forecast, while annual inflation eased to 2.3%, the lowest since early 2021. Core CPI also came in soft, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as early as September.This disinflation trend, alongside dovish commentary from Fed officials, sent US Treasury yields lower and pressured the US Dollar. As a result, USD/JPY fell despite broader risk-on sentiment.Looking ahead, Thursday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims will offer further insight into inflation and labor market trends. However, the key event will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Markets will be tuned in for confirmation of a dovish pivot—or any pushback against the growing expectations for rate cuts. His tone could be pivotal for short-term direction in USD/JPY and broader dollar sentiment.USD/JPY - bullish or bearish at 146.00?Technically, USD/JPY sits at a critical juncture. A confirmed breakout above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 146.34 would signal renewed bullish momentum, opening the path toward resistance at 147.09—the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January–April decline. Sustained strength could even target the psychological 150.00 level, particularly if US yields rebound or policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ widens.USD/JPY daily chart
Conversely, failure to hold above 144.37 and a decisive break below the 20-day SMA would suggest fading bullish momentum, shifting focus toward 142.00 and potentially 140.00—especially if US data disappoints or market sentiment turns risk-off. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Conversely, failure to hold above 144.37 and a decisive break below the 20-day SMA would suggest fading bullish momentum, shifting focus toward 142.00 and potentially 140.00—especially if US data disappoints or market sentiment turns risk-off. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
20:14 Dow Jones Industrial Average settles slightly lower on tepid Wednesday
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) eased slightly lower on Wednesday, slipping back toward the 42,000 handle as equity markets spin in place during a calm midweek market session.
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Most of the major equity indexes have clawed back YTD losses, thanks in no small part to a determined bullish tilt in tech stocks.There is a notable gap between key data releases this week, and traders are getting some room to breathe before the next batch of figures drops. United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data is slated for Thursday, alongside US Retail Sales. Annualized PPI is expected to ease slightly to 3.1% from 3.3%, while April’s MoM figure is expected to tick up to 0.3% from -0.1%. Retail Sales in April are also expected to ease to a flat 0.0% from March’s revised 1.5%.Tariffs impacts still to comeMarket experts warned that this April’s dual inflation prints this week could be the last bright spot on the years-long inflation fight. According to analysts, economic impacts from the Trump administration’s ham-handed trade strategies are expected to begin showing up in the data in May. Even as the Trump team explores pulling back on its own tariff policies, the Effective Tariff Rate (ETR) on most countries will hold above 13%, a number that has typically averaged somewhere near 2.5% in the past. Even with the White House’s cancellation of triple-digit tariffs on China, the US’s ETR on Chinese goods is expected to remain over 30% for the next quarter. Despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that “other countries” will be paying the tariffs, import taxes are generally charged at the entry point into the domestic economy and extracted from domestic businesses, who tend to pass those costs onto consumers directly.In the face of rising costs being levied directly against the US by its own administration, Friday’s University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index is unlikely to show much improvement. US consumers are growing increasingly apprehensive about their economic outlook and income expectations. However, median market forecasts are hoping for a slight uptick in the UoM’s key sentiment reading, with the index expected to tick up to 53.4 from its two-year low of 52.2.Read more stock news: UnitedHealth Group stock recovers Wednesday downgradesDow Jones price forecastThe Dow Jones has stopped its early-week ascent, slowing down and resting near 42,000. The major equity index is still up around 1.15% this week and has recovered approximately 14% since the significant drop to the 36,600 area in early April. This week’s topside breach of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 41,500 has shifted the Dow Jones back into bullish territory, prompting buyers to aim for continued momentum to push prices back towards record highs exceeding 45,000.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
20:00 EUR/USD price analysis: Euro steadies near 1.1200 as mixed signals persist
The EUR/USD pair traded near the 1.1200 zone on Wednesday after the European session, reflecting a cautiously bullish tone as the market approaches the Asian session. Price action remains within the middle of its daily range, indicating balanced sentiment despite a mixed technical backdrop.
EUR/USD trades around the 1.1200 zone with minor gains in Wednesday’s session.Mixed technical signals, with shorter-term averages suggesting selling pressure, while longer-term trends remain supportive.Key support levels hold below, while resistance clusters just above current levels.The EUR/USD pair traded near the 1.1200 zone on Wednesday after the European session, reflecting a cautiously bullish tone as the market approaches the Asian session. Price action remains within the middle of its daily range, indicating balanced sentiment despite a mixed technical backdrop. While shorter-term momentum indicators signal caution, the broader trend remains supported by longer-term averages, providing a foundation for further upside if recent gains hold.From a technical standpoint, the pair presents a complex picture. The Relative Strength Index hovers around 40, reflecting neutral conditions without clear directional momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence, however, signals sell momentum, aligning with the cautious tone of the shorter-term moving averages. The Williams Percent Range also remains in neutral territory, suggesting the pair lacks immediate directional conviction. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index trades in the 30s, pointing to a modest bullish bias, while the Bull Bear Power indicator further supports the buy sentiment, hinting at underlying strength.The moving averages paint a divided picture. The 20-day Simple Moving Average continues to slope downward, reinforcing near-term resistance. In contrast, the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, along with the 30-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages, provide stronger underlying support, indicating that the broader trend remains intact despite short-term fluctuations.Support levels are found at 1.1199, 1.1128, and 1.1092. Resistance lies at 1.1238, 1.1242, and 1.1242. A sustained move above the immediate resistance zone could confirm a broader breakout, while a break below support might trigger a short-term correction, potentially testing the lower end of the recent range.Daily Chart
19:50 USD/CAD eyes breakout as price tests 50-day EMA, momentum builds above 1.3950
USD/CAD is holding steady near 1.3975 in the American session on Wednesday, with bulls attempting to reclaim control after a strong bounce from the 1.3900 zone earlier in the day.
USD/CAD trades near 1.3975, approaching the 50-day EMA at 1.4030.Daily RSI holds above 52, price structure points to potential breakout.4-hour chart shows higher lows, support holds at 50-period EMA near 1.3900.USD/CAD is holding steady near 1.3975 in the American session on Wednesday, with bulls attempting to reclaim control after a strong bounce from the 1.3900 zone earlier in the day. Price action on the daily chart remains constructive, with the pair now challenging the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4030, a key dynamic resistance zone.The daily structure turned bullish after USD/CAD closed above the 21-day EMA (1.3920) earlier this week. A sustained break and close above the 50-day EMA would confirm a breakout from the recent consolidation zone and expose the next upside targets at 1.4150 and 1.4290 near April’s high. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart holds at 52, showing a mild bullish bias without signaling overbought conditions.On the downside, the 1.3900 mark remains a critical pivot, also aligning with the neckline of the recent consolidation base. A decisive break below this level could attract fresh selling pressure and potentially drag the pair back toward the April lows near 1.3750.On the four-hour chart, USD/CAD has broken decisively above the 1.3950 mark, reclaiming both the 21-period EMA ( at 1.3939) and the 50-period EMA (at 1.3905), which were previously acting as dynamic resistance. This bullish crossover is technically constructive and reinforces a near-term upward bias.The pair formed a clean intraday bottom at 1.3901 during the Asian session, which now acts as short-term support alongside the 50-EMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed back to 60.10, well into bullish territory but not yet overbought, signaling room for further upside.Key resistance is located at 1.4015, the May high and previous rejection point. A clean break above this would signal a continuation of the bullish breakout, potentially targeting the 1.4070–1.4100 zone, where the pair last found sellers in early April.However, failure to break above 1.4015 on the next attempt could confirm a near-term double-top formation, leaving the pair vulnerable to another retest of the 1.3900–1.3910 demand zone.This rally is occurring on relatively moderate volume, suggesting short-covering and reactive flows rather than aggressive accumulation. From a structural standpoint, the pair is trading inside a rising wedge pattern, often considered a continuation or reversal setup depending on the breakout direction.Moreover, the 1.3900–1.3930 area is a former resistance-turned-support region backed by horizontal demand and moving average confluence. A sustained hold above this zone is critical to preserve the short-term bullish outlook.Traders will be watching Thursday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and Canadian Housing Starts data closely for potential catalysts that could trigger a breakout or a reversal from current levels.
19:30 EUR/CHF price analysis: Pair maintains bullish tone with minor gains on Wednesday
The EUR/CHF pair is trading around the 0.9400 zone on Wednesday, reflecting a slightly bullish tone with minor gains as the pair remains within the mid-range of its recent fluctuation.
EUR/CHF trades near the 0.9400 zone, maintaining a bullish tone with minor gains.Momentum is mixed, with short-term averages supporting the upside despite some conflicting signals.Key support rests near 0.9400, with resistance around 0.9430 and 0.9440.The EUR/CHF pair is trading around the 0.9400 zone on Wednesday, reflecting a slightly bullish tone with minor gains as the pair remains within the mid-range of its recent fluctuation. The broader technical setup suggests a cautiously positive outlook, supported by a mix of bullish and neutral signals, as traders assess the broader market sentiment.From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, reflecting neutral conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates ongoing buy momentum. Meanwhile, the Bull Bear Power trades around the 0 level, signaling a balanced but slightly supportive tone. Further confirming this neutral stance, the Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) remains in the 50s, while the Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) resides in the 60s, reinforcing the mixed momentum.Moving averages present a similar picture, with the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) both aligning with the broader buy sentiment. However, the 100-day SMA introduces a more cautious tone, signaling potential resistance ahead, contrasting with the supportive signals from the 20-day and 200-day SMAs.Immediate support is identified around 0.9407, followed by deeper levels at 0.9400 and 0.9394. On the upside, resistance is expected near 0.9425, with stronger barriers at 0.9434 and 0.9441, potentially limiting gains in the near term.Daily Chart
18:53 Gold breaks $3200 as Chinese ETF inflows stall – TDS
Gold fell below $3200/oz as a pause in Chinese ETF flows and geopolitical optimism triggered a pullback—but underlying support from central banks and institutional inertia keeps downside risk asymmetric, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Gold fell below $3200/oz as a pause in Chinese ETF flows and geopolitical optimism triggered a pullback—but underlying support from central banks and institutional inertia keeps downside risk asymmetric, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Positive Russia-Ukraine headlines expose Gold to sharp pullback"Gold prices are breaking through the $3200/oz range. Why today? Perhaps because Chinese ETF flows ground to a halt overnight after gaining steam over the last sessions, leaving the door for positive Russia-Ukraine headlines to catalyze a break." "Make no mistake: the US-China ceasefire on trade was the worst-case scenario for Gold, but our flow-based analysis continues to argue that the surprise will relate to the limited scale of subsequent selling activity. Unless macro funds opt to build a more significant net short position, our framework suggests that only retail ETF holders (both in the West and the East) are vulnerable at this juncture." "Persistent central bank demand should be sufficiently strong to offset such flows. This is what an asymmetric trade looks like, and ultimately, we think this behavior is symptomatic of the USD partly losing its store-of-value function — even if it isn't losing its reserve currency status."
18:47 EUR/JPY price analysis: Pair holds bullish stance despite minor losses
The EUR/JPY pair is trading near the 164.00 zone ahead of the Asian session on Wednesday, reflecting a slightly bullish tone despite minor losses on the day.
EUR/JPY trades near the 164.00 zone, maintaining a bullish stance despite minor losses.Momentum remains positive, supported by multiple moving averages.Key support rests around 163.60, with resistance near 164.90.The EUR/JPY pair is trading near the 164.00 zone ahead of the Asian session on Wednesday, reflecting a slightly bullish tone despite minor losses on the day. The pair remains within the mid-range of its recent fluctuation, indicating a stable but cautious upward bias as traders assess broader market sentiment. Key technical indicators are signaling mixed but generally supportive momentum, aligning with the pair's broader bullish structure.From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, reflecting neutral conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms ongoing buy momentum. Additional confirmation comes from the Williams Percent Range (14), Awesome Oscillator, and Bull Bear Power, all hovering around the 2 area, reinforcing the pair's balanced but upward bias.Moving averages further support this outlook, with the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) both positioned in the 160s, aligning with the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs, all signaling a broader buy trend. This multi-timeframe alignment indicates a solid underlying bullish structure, despite recent minor losses.Immediate support is identified around 163.66, followed by deeper levels at 163.61 and 163.11. On the upside, resistance is expected near 164.93, potentially capping gains in the near term.Daily Chart
18:15 GBP/USD slips modestly from weekly high as traders await UK GDP
The Pound Sterling erases some of its earlier gains on Wednesday after reaching a weekly high of 1.3359, edges down 0.03% amid a lack of catalyst, as traders brace for the release of GDP figures for the UK. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3293.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Sterling retreats slightly amid quiet session as traders eye upcoming UK GDP figures.DXY softens to 100.77 after early week rally on US-China tariff truce; easing bets hold at 52 bps for 2025.Fed’s Jefferson flags tariff-driven inflation uncertainty; BoE’s Mann leans cautious on labor market resilience.The Pound Sterling erases some of its earlier gains on Wednesday after reaching a weekly high of 1.3359, edges down 0.03% amid a lack of catalyst, as traders brace for the release of GDP figures for the UK. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3293.GBP/USD eases to 1.3293 after peaking at 1.3359, with BoE and Fed policy outlooks in focus ahead of key data releasesThe Greenback has trimmed its gains from Monday, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of six currencies, rose sharply after news of the de-escalation of the China-US trade war. Nevertheless, as market participants had already factored the news into their expectations, the DXY fell by 0.15% to 100.77.An absent economic docket in both sides of the Atlantic keeps investors entertained on Tuesday data. Although US inflation dipped modestly, market participants are expecting 52 basis points of easing, according to the swaps markets.Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated that the current moderately restrictive policy rate is well-positioned to respond to economic developments. He added that tariffs could lead to high inflation, but he’s still uncertain if the impact would be temporary or persistent.In the UK, job figures cooled further, a relief for the Bank of England (BoE), which has been vocal about wages exerting upward inflationary pressure. Earlier, BOE’s Catherine Mann said that she wanted to hold rates unchanged because he saw the labor market more resilient than expected.The BoE is expected to ease policy by around 50 basis points by the end of the year, with the subsequent reduction expected in August.Meanwhile, the US economic docket will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales data, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Thursday.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom a technical perspective, the GBP/USD is neutral to upward bias, but buyers must keep the exchange rate above 1.33. If achieve it, they need to drive the exchange rate past 1.3350 towards challenging the year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.3443.Conversely, a daily close below 1.33 clears the path for a pullback, with the next key support being the 1.3200 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the current week low of 1.3139. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
18:12 EUR/GBP rebounds as markets weigh inflation and policy outlook
The EUR/GBP exchange rate is staging a modest rebound on Wednesday, recovering from a week-long decline as investors respond to stable German inflation figures and cautious commentary from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) officials.
.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}The Euro edges higher despite disinflation and dovish ECB signals.The British Pound holds firm as the BoE remains cautious on rate cuts.Thursday’s Eurozone and UK data could reshape rate path expectations, influencing the trajectory for EUR/GBPThe EUR/GBP exchange rate is staging a modest rebound on Wednesday, recovering from a week-long decline as investors respond to stable German inflation figures and cautious commentary from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) officials. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.8433, up 0.35% on the day, after touching lows near 0.8400 earlier in the session. The move reflects growing investor caution ahead of high-impact data releases on Thursday that could reset expectations for both central banks.Euro reclaims ground amid steady German inflation and ECB commentaryThe Euro (EUR) shows signs of recovery following the release of Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which remained steady at 2.2% year-on-year in April. While broadly in line with forecasts, the data reinforces the Eurozone’s broader disinflationary trend, supporting expectations for a potential ECB rate cut in June. Comments from ECB officials, including Isabel Schnabel, also weighed in, emphasizing maintaining the current policy stance in light of lingering global uncertainties. Although not a catalyst for a sharp rally, the combination of steady inflation and a dovish tone helped the euro recover modestly after a series of losses.UK Pound holds firm on policy uncertainty and ongoing inflation pressuresMeanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) remains resilient, supported by lingering doubts over the BoE’s timeline for easing. While a rate cut remains likely later this year, recent UK data has complicated the picture. The labour market has shown notable strength, and policymakers are increasingly concerned about goods price inflation and rising household inflation expectations. BoE official Catherine Mann cited these risks during a speech on Wednesday, while Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden announced regulatory consultations to strengthen market stability, both signaling a cautious stance that has helped support the Pound.Diverging outlooks set the stage for Thursday's key dataWith the ECB and BoE nearing potential inflection points in their policy paths, Thursday’s economic releases are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the EUR/GBP direction. In the Eurozone, markets will digest Q1 GDP, employment, and industrial production figures, with GDP forecast at 0.4% QoQ and 1.2% YoY. Meanwhile, the UK will publish its Q1 GDP, expected at 0.6% QoQ, alongside flat monthly growth and weaker production figures.The data could offer fresh momentum for the pair as traders recalibrate rate expectations heading into June. Related news EUR/GBP gains traction above 0.8400 after German inflation data GBP: Eyeing a break higher – ING EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish outlook remains in play near 164.50
18:00 Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 12.7% above expectations (9.8%) in March
Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 12.7% above expectations (9.8%) in March
17:53 USD/CHF holds steady amid softer US Dollar and trade optimism
The USD/CHF pair holds firm above 0.8320 on Wednesday during early American trading hours after declining for the second straight day.
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The USD/CHF pair holds firm above 0.8320 on Wednesday during early American trading hours after declining for the second straight day. The pair drew technical support from the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.8332, which coincides with a multi-week resistance-turned-support zone near 0.8320.The Swiss franc (CHF) has rebounded from an over one-month low reached on Monday, benefiting from broad US Dollar (USD) weakness following Tuesday’s softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The inflation miss eased fears over renewed price pressures from Trump-era tariffs and prompted renewed Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets, putting pressure on the Greenback.Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc gained ground on renewed optimism over a potential US-Switzerland trade agreement. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Switzerland and United Kingdom (UK) were "at the front of the queue" for bilateral trade deals, contrasting the slower pace of talks with the European Union. London has already reached an agreement, and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter quickly emphasized that Switzerland should be “among the next,” potentially even second in line.While Keller-Sutter, who also serves as Switzerland’s Finance Minister, initially stated that a formal declaration of intent would be submitted to Washington within one to two weeks, Bessent expressed a desire to move even faster, expecting the proposal by this coming Sunday.Despite the positive trade momentum, further gains in the Swiss Franc are being capped by rising expectations of additional monetary easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently said the central bank is ready to cut interest rates even below zero if inflation stays persistently below target.Market participants now focus on Thursday’s high-impact US data, including Initial Jobless claims, Retail sales, and Producer Price Index (PPI), which could determine the near-term direction for the USD/CHF pair. Swiss Franc PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.29% 0.05% -0.85% 0.19% 0.24% 0.13% -0.01% EUR 0.29% 0.34% -0.57% 0.48% 0.53% 0.40% 0.27% GBP -0.05% -0.34% -0.91% 0.14% 0.19% 0.06% -0.06% JPY 0.85% 0.57% 0.91% 1.04% 1.10% 0.97% 0.83% CAD -0.19% -0.48% -0.14% -1.04% 0.05% -0.06% -0.20% AUD -0.24% -0.53% -0.19% -1.10% -0.05% -0.11% -0.25% NZD -0.13% -0.40% -0.06% -0.97% 0.06% 0.11% -0.14% CHF 0.00% -0.27% 0.06% -0.83% 0.20% 0.25% 0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
The USD/CHF pair holds firm above 0.8320 on Wednesday during early American trading hours after declining for the second straight day. The pair drew technical support from the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.8332, which coincides with a multi-week resistance-turned-support zone near 0.8320.The Swiss franc (CHF) has rebounded from an over one-month low reached on Monday, benefiting from broad US Dollar (USD) weakness following Tuesday’s softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The inflation miss eased fears over renewed price pressures from Trump-era tariffs and prompted renewed Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets, putting pressure on the Greenback.Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc gained ground on renewed optimism over a potential US-Switzerland trade agreement. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Switzerland and United Kingdom (UK) were "at the front of the queue" for bilateral trade deals, contrasting the slower pace of talks with the European Union. London has already reached an agreement, and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter quickly emphasized that Switzerland should be “among the next,” potentially even second in line.While Keller-Sutter, who also serves as Switzerland’s Finance Minister, initially stated that a formal declaration of intent would be submitted to Washington within one to two weeks, Bessent expressed a desire to move even faster, expecting the proposal by this coming Sunday.Despite the positive trade momentum, further gains in the Swiss Franc are being capped by rising expectations of additional monetary easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently said the central bank is ready to cut interest rates even below zero if inflation stays persistently below target.Market participants now focus on Thursday’s high-impact US data, including Initial Jobless claims, Retail sales, and Producer Price Index (PPI), which could determine the near-term direction for the USD/CHF pair. Swiss Franc PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.29% 0.05% -0.85% 0.19% 0.24% 0.13% -0.01% EUR 0.29% 0.34% -0.57% 0.48% 0.53% 0.40% 0.27% GBP -0.05% -0.34% -0.91% 0.14% 0.19% 0.06% -0.06% JPY 0.85% 0.57% 0.91% 1.04% 1.10% 0.97% 0.83% CAD -0.19% -0.48% -0.14% -1.04% 0.05% -0.06% -0.20% AUD -0.24% -0.53% -0.19% -1.10% -0.05% -0.11% -0.25% NZD -0.13% -0.40% -0.06% -0.97% 0.06% 0.11% -0.14% CHF 0.00% -0.27% 0.06% -0.83% 0.20% 0.25% 0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
17:46 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD plummets to near $32 as its safe-haven demand fizzles out
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down over 1% to near $32.15 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal faces a sharp selling pressure as demand for safe-haven assets has fizzled out, with the United States (US) and China aiming to avert a more than a month-long trade war.
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The white metal faces a sharp selling pressure as demand for safe-haven assets has fizzled out, with the United States (US) and China aiming to avert a more than a month-long trade war.On Monday, Washington and Beijing agreed to lower import duties by 115% for 90 days, which reduced tariffs on them to 10% and 30%, respectively, after a two-day meeting in Switzerland. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Tuesday that Washington doesn’t intend to decouple with China but wants to bring medicine, semiconductor, and other strategic industries home.The white metal outperformed when the world’s two largest powerhouses entered a trade war after Beijing announced counter-tariffs against reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump in April.Additionally, easing inflationary pressures have also diminished the demand for Silver. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed on Tuesday that the headline inflation fell to 2.3%, the lowest level seen in over four years.Going forward, the next trigger for the Silver price will be the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday. Investors would like to know whether Powell has turned dovish on the interest rate outlook after soft inflation data and a temporary US-China trade truce.Silver technical analysisSilver price trades in a Symmetrical Triangle formation on a four-hour timeframe. The chart pattern reflects indecisiveness among market participants. The near-term trend of the white metal is bearish as it trades below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $32.70.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.Silver four-hour chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 3.454M above expectations (-1M) in May 9
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 3.454M above expectations (-1M) in May 9
16:53 NZD/USD gives up gains as US Dollar recovers some initial losses, Fed Powell’s speech eyed
The NZD/USD pair gives back its intraday gains and ticks lower to near 0.5935 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair corrects as the US Dollar (USD) recoups some of its intraday losses.
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The Kiwi pair corrects as the US Dollar (USD) recoups some of its intraday losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers from the intraday low of 100.30 to near 100.70.The US Dollar has underperformed earlier in the day due to softer-than-expected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April. The US headline CPI rose moderately by 2.3%, the lowest level seen since February 2021.Meanwhile, the next trigger for the US Dollar will be the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, which is scheduled for Thursday. Investors would like to know whether the Fed has turned dovish on the interest rate outlook in the wake of cooling inflationary pressures and the agreement between the US and China to reduce tariffs by 115% for 90 days.On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump criticized Fed Powell again for not lowering interest rates despite the easing prices of a significant number of goods."No Inflation, and Prices of Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and practically everything else, are DOWN!!! THE FED must lower the RATE, like Europe and China have done," Trump said in a post on Truth Social and added, "What is wrong with Too Late Powell? Not fair to America, which is ready to blossom? Just let it all happen, it will be a beautiful thing!”.On the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) front, the currency is expected to be driven by market expectations for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision in the monetary policy later this month. The RBNZ is expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) amid uncertainty over the domestic outlook. Economic Indicator Fed's Chair Powell speech Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018. Read more. Next release: Thu May 15, 2025 12:40 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Federal Reserve
16:27 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD breaks support as market looks for next catalyst
Gold prices remain under pressure as investors reassess the interest rate outlook and digest mixed signals from recent US economic data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is down 2.23% on the day, trading below $3,200, extending a week-to-date decline of 4.26%.
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Gold trades below key $3,200 support as bearish pressure builds after recent highs.XAU/USD consolidates within a bullish pennant, signaling potential trend continuation if support holds.A surge in momentum below $3,200 may trigger a deeper retracement toward key Fibonacci levels.
Gold prices remain under pressure as investors reassess the interest rate outlook and digest mixed signals from recent US economic data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is down 2.23% on the day, trading below $3,200, extending a week-to-date decline of 4.26%. The pullback reflects uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy stance, as softer inflation data clash with firm labor market conditions. This macro backdrop has kept Gold range-bound just below its all-time high, with traders looking for fresh direction.Gold bears test bullish pennant supportOn the daily chart, Gold has formed a bullish pennant, a continuation pattern that typically signals a potential resumption of the prevailing uptrend. The April surge forms the flagpole, while current price action is consolidating within converging trendlines, indicating tightening market conditions and indecision among market participants.However, the integrity of the pattern is now under pressure. Price has slipped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,316.20, reflecting short-term weakness. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 47.13, pointing to neutral-to-bearish momentum. These developments suggest that the bullish setup may be faltering.The immediate focus is on the horizontal support at $3,200, which marks the lower boundary of the pennant. With prices currently below this level, a confirmed break would invalidate the pattern and likely trigger a deeper correction. Conversely, a move above $3,300, particularly if it clears the descending trendline resistance, would reaffirm the bullish bias and potentially open the path to new highs.Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart
Gold slips below $3,200 as bullish momentum fadesFrom a broader perspective, the weekly chart shows that Gold remains in a consolidation phase following its ascent to a record high of $3,500 in April. This advance was underpinned by safe-haven demand and market expectations of future interest rate cuts. However, the rally was quickly met with profit-taking, evidenced by a long upper shadow on the weekly candle — a signal of rejection and growing resistance.Since that peak, Gold has traded within a narrow horizontal band between $3,200 and $3,300, representing a pause in the uptrend rather than a full reversal. The long-term bullish structure remains intact, supported by an ascending trendline originating from the January low. Importantly, price is still holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,291, drawn from the January low to the April high.Gold (XAU/USD) weekly chart
While the broader trend favors the bulls, the near-term outlook hinges on how price behaves within the pivotal $3,200–$3,300 range.A decisive breakout above $3,300, especially if accompanied by rising momentum and a break of descending trendline resistance, would confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend. In this scenario, Gold could retest the $3,450–$3,500 area.A confirmed breakdown below $3,200 would invalidate the pennant structure and expose Gold to deeper retracements, with support levels at $3,161 (38.2% Fibonacci) and $3,057 (50.0%) offering potential downside targets.Until a breakout occurs, Gold is likely to remain range-bound, with short-term direction dictated by incoming macroeconomic data and Fed policy signals. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold trades below key $3,200 support as bearish pressure builds after recent highs.XAU/USD consolidates within a bullish pennant, signaling potential trend continuation if support holds.A surge in momentum below $3,200 may trigger a deeper retracement toward key Fibonacci levels.
Gold prices remain under pressure as investors reassess the interest rate outlook and digest mixed signals from recent US economic data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is down 2.23% on the day, trading below $3,200, extending a week-to-date decline of 4.26%. The pullback reflects uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy stance, as softer inflation data clash with firm labor market conditions. This macro backdrop has kept Gold range-bound just below its all-time high, with traders looking for fresh direction.Gold bears test bullish pennant supportOn the daily chart, Gold has formed a bullish pennant, a continuation pattern that typically signals a potential resumption of the prevailing uptrend. The April surge forms the flagpole, while current price action is consolidating within converging trendlines, indicating tightening market conditions and indecision among market participants.However, the integrity of the pattern is now under pressure. Price has slipped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,316.20, reflecting short-term weakness. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 47.13, pointing to neutral-to-bearish momentum. These developments suggest that the bullish setup may be faltering.The immediate focus is on the horizontal support at $3,200, which marks the lower boundary of the pennant. With prices currently below this level, a confirmed break would invalidate the pattern and likely trigger a deeper correction. Conversely, a move above $3,300, particularly if it clears the descending trendline resistance, would reaffirm the bullish bias and potentially open the path to new highs.Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart
Gold slips below $3,200 as bullish momentum fadesFrom a broader perspective, the weekly chart shows that Gold remains in a consolidation phase following its ascent to a record high of $3,500 in April. This advance was underpinned by safe-haven demand and market expectations of future interest rate cuts. However, the rally was quickly met with profit-taking, evidenced by a long upper shadow on the weekly candle — a signal of rejection and growing resistance.Since that peak, Gold has traded within a narrow horizontal band between $3,200 and $3,300, representing a pause in the uptrend rather than a full reversal. The long-term bullish structure remains intact, supported by an ascending trendline originating from the January low. Importantly, price is still holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,291, drawn from the January low to the April high.Gold (XAU/USD) weekly chart
While the broader trend favors the bulls, the near-term outlook hinges on how price behaves within the pivotal $3,200–$3,300 range.A decisive breakout above $3,300, especially if accompanied by rising momentum and a break of descending trendline resistance, would confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend. In this scenario, Gold could retest the $3,450–$3,500 area.A confirmed breakdown below $3,200 would invalidate the pennant structure and expose Gold to deeper retracements, with support levels at $3,161 (38.2% Fibonacci) and $3,057 (50.0%) offering potential downside targets.Until a breakout occurs, Gold is likely to remain range-bound, with short-term direction dictated by incoming macroeconomic data and Fed policy signals. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
16:16 Fed’s Jefferson: Tariffs could lead to higher inflation
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that recent inflation numbers suggest the Fed is still making headway toward its 2% target. However, he cautioned that the outlook has become less certain, with the threat of new import tariffs potentially pushing prices higher.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that recent inflation numbers suggest the Fed is still making headway toward its 2% target. However, he cautioned that the outlook has become less certain, with the threat of new import tariffs potentially pushing prices higher.Key QuotesCurrent moderately restrictive policy rate in a good place to respond to economic developments.Recent inflation data consistent with further progress toward 2% goal, but future path uncertain due to tariffs.Watching closely for signs in hard data of weaker activity.Tariffs could lead to higher inflation, still uncertain if impact would be temporary or persistent.Expect lower growth due to trade policy but expect economy to still expand over the year.First quarter GDP data overstated deceleration in activity.Labour market still solid.Whether tariffs create persistent inflation depends on implementation, response of supply chains, other factors.
15:55 EUR a mid-performer in context of broad-based USD weakness – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is entering Wednesday’s NA session with a decent 0.5% gain, a mid-performer among the G10 in the context of a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Euro (EUR) is entering Wednesday’s NA session with a decent 0.5% gain, a mid-performer among the G10 in the context of a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets ignoring dovish ECB comments"Fundamental developments have been limited and there have been no high level data releases, leaving the focus squarely centered on media reports reinforcing the view of a currency-focused US administration and its preference for a weaker USD." "Markets appear to be ignoring the continued dovishness from policymakers at the ECB, including Tuesday’s comments from GC member Villeroy leaning toward further rate cuts this summer." "EUR/USD’s sharp bounce off of support around its 50 day MA (1.1095) appears to have cemented a near-term low, providing a broader range roughly bound between support in the mid/upper-1.10 area and resistance above 1.15. The decline in the RSI has stalled but the recovery has been minimal and its current reading around 50 implies a loss of momentum and a neutral level overall."
15:53 CAD up marginally and a relative underperformer – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up marginally vs. the US Dollar (USD) and continuing to underperform its G10 peers for a second consecutive session, trading with the broader trend but with moves of a smaller magnitude, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up marginally vs. the US Dollar (USD) and continuing to underperform its G10 peers for a second consecutive session, trading with the broader trend but with moves of a smaller magnitude, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. RSI struggles to extend above 50"The recent widening in yield spreads appears to have taken a pause, offering the CAD a reprieve as markets await the release of domestic data into the end of the week. Wednesday’s domestic calendar is limited to building permits for March, ahead of Thursday’s housing starts and manufacturing sales." "The Bank of Canada’s calendar is also empty and markets are still roughly pricing a couple of 25bpt rate cuts by December. The near-term range looks to be defined by last week’s Trump/Carney meeting lows and the USD’s relief rally highs observed earlier this week.""The latest range now looks to be bound between last week’s lows around 1.3750 and this week’s short-lived highs above 1.4000. The 200 day MA (1.4019) appears to have provided important near-term resistance as well. The RSI has struggled to extend above 50 and is now looking decidedly neutral."
15:51 USD/CAD steady below 1.3950 as soft US inflation weighs on the US Dollar
The USD/CAD pair remains under pressure for the second consecutive day, trading flat near 1.3950 during Wednesday’s European trading hours.
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The USD/CAD pair remains under pressure for the second consecutive day, trading flat near 1.3950 during Wednesday’s European trading hours. The pair is holding below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), coinciding with a broader decline in the US Dollar (USD) following a weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) print on Tuesday.The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilized around 100.15 after briefly dipping to 99.81 on Wednesday, pulling back further from the one-month highs hit earlier this week on Monday. The initial optimism around US-China tariff relief has faded, with traders refocusing on the potential economic fallout from shifting trade dynamics. Meanwhile, softer inflation data sparks bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could resume its easing cycle, with markets now pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts later this year.Geopolitical trade tensions also remain in focus after Canada’s Ambassador to the US, Kirsten Hillman, stated on May 12 that eliminating the "ruinous" tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is Canada’s top priority in any future trade talks. Hillman stressed that "no discussion to be had with the Americans without that being on the table from Canada's perspective", calling it the "starting point" for negotiations. The remarks underscore lingering trade friction between the two countries, adding a layer of uncertainty for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid broader US Dollar (USD) weakness.Looking ahead, market participants are turning their attention to a raft of high-impact US data due Thursday, including April's Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will also be closely watched for policy cues, especially amid growing speculation of a policy pivot. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
The USD/CAD pair remains under pressure for the second consecutive day, trading flat near 1.3950 during Wednesday’s European trading hours. The pair is holding below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), coinciding with a broader decline in the US Dollar (USD) following a weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) print on Tuesday.The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilized around 100.15 after briefly dipping to 99.81 on Wednesday, pulling back further from the one-month highs hit earlier this week on Monday. The initial optimism around US-China tariff relief has faded, with traders refocusing on the potential economic fallout from shifting trade dynamics. Meanwhile, softer inflation data sparks bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could resume its easing cycle, with markets now pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts later this year.Geopolitical trade tensions also remain in focus after Canada’s Ambassador to the US, Kirsten Hillman, stated on May 12 that eliminating the "ruinous" tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is Canada’s top priority in any future trade talks. Hillman stressed that "no discussion to be had with the Americans without that being on the table from Canada's perspective", calling it the "starting point" for negotiations. The remarks underscore lingering trade friction between the two countries, adding a layer of uncertainty for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid broader US Dollar (USD) weakness.Looking ahead, market participants are turning their attention to a raft of high-impact US data due Thursday, including April's Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will also be closely watched for policy cues, especially amid growing speculation of a policy pivot. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
15:45 USD extending weakness as markets focus on US/Korea talks, US bias – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is weakening broadly into Wednesday’s NA session, extending Tuesday’s CPI driven-decline and retracing most of its US/China-trade related relief gains from the start of the week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The US Dollar (USD) is weakening broadly into Wednesday’s NA session, extending Tuesday’s CPI driven-decline and retracing most of its US/China-trade related relief gains from the start of the week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD under broad pressure for second session"Markets appear to be responding to media reports of US/Korea talks earlier this month that covered the topic of exchange rates and seemed to reinforce market suspicions of a US administration that appears to be leaning toward a preference for a weaker dollar. KRW is up over 1% on the day and Asian currencies are leading gains in FX. The relative performance among G10 currencies is suggestive of mild risk aversion, with notable outperformance from the JPY and CHF and relative underperformance from AUD and CAD." "The broader tone across asset markets are confirming the signals from FX as European equity indices trade softly, along with US equity futures. In bond markets the US 10Y yield is pulling back from Tuesday’s high around 4.50% and the 2Y looks to be stabilizing with notable congestion around 4.00%. The signals from crude are not much better, as WTI struggles to extend its recent gains above $63/bbl while copper climbs within a descending channel at the midpoint of its much larger range. Finally, gold is trading within a remarkably tight range and the metal looks vulnerable to further weakness, as it hovers above support around $3200/oz." "For Wednesday, the US release calendar is empty leaving the focus squarely centered on Fedspeak and the scheduled appearances from Waller, Jefferson, Daly, and Goolsbee. The tone is critical as we continue to note the clear divergence between Fed speakers maintaining a bias toward ‘patience’ as other major central bank policymakers lean dovish with a clear bias toward further rate cuts. Markets have roughly halved their pricing of Fed cuts by December, pricing just over 50bpt of easing vs. just over 100bpts of cuts as of April 30."
15:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) below expectations (-0.5%) in March: Actual (-4.1%)
Canada Building Permits (MoM) below expectations (-0.5%) in March: Actual (-4.1%)
14:53 Mexican Peso hits fresh YTD high as Banxico rate cut, Fed signals, and US trade tensions loom
The Mexican Peso (MXN) posts a second consecutive day of gains on Wednesday against the US Dollar (USD), slipping below 19.40 ahead of key commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials that could influence the monetary policy outlook.
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The April US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released Tuesday came in below expectations, signaling further easing in inflation and reinforcing market confidence in a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year. With the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its last meeting, markets continue to price in the first rate cut for September. However, upcoming commentary from central bank officials will be crucial in determining whether this timeline holds.On Wednesday, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, a voting member, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, a non-voting member, are scheduled to speak. Their remarks will offer early insight into how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is interpreting the recent softer inflation data. This sets the stage for Thursday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell takes the spotlight. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any shift in policy tone following the latest CPI report, with the US Dollar’s near-term direction particularly sensitive to any dovish or hawkish signals from these key appearances.Banxico expected to cut rates again as differential narrowsThe Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday at 19:00 GMT, and analysts widely expect a third consecutive 50 basis-point cut (0.5%), which would bring the benchmark rate to 8.5%. The timing is especially significant given the contrast in policy direction between the US and Mexico. With the Fed expected to hold rates steady until at least September and Banxico accelerating its easing cycle, the narrowing interest rate differential is reducing the Mexican peso’s yield advantage. While Mexico’s inflation outlook supports further easing, the diminished appeal of the Peso relative to the Dollar may weigh on MXN in the near term, particularly if Fed officials push back against imminent rate cut expectations in the wake of the softer CPI data.Mexican Peso daily digest: Banxico easing, Fed divergence, and US trade risks weigh on outlookBanxico has cut rates at six straight meetings since August, so a 0.50% cut on Thursday would mark a cumulative 2.5% reduction over seven decisions.In contrast, the Fed has cut rates three times since July, lowering its benchmark rate from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.25%-4.50% by January.Escalating trade tensions with the US threaten Mexico’s export-driven economy, as the US accounts for over 80% of Mexican exports; tariffs could disrupt manufacturing, weaken investor confidence, and slow economic growth.The US has imposed 25% tariffs on Mexican goods not covered by the USMCA, including steel and aluminium alluminimum, steel and auto March, citing concerns over border security and fentanyl trafficking.According to Reuters, Mexico’s Economy Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, has proposed starting the USMCA review this year, ahead of the formal 2026 timeline, stating that the goal is “to give investors and consumers greater certainty” amid rising US-Mexico trade tensions. The USMCA is the foundation of North American trade, governing over $1.5 trillion in annual commerce and ensuring stability for cross-border supply chains, jobs, and investment.USD/MXN breaks lower as Peso strength drives downside breakoutUSD/MXN extends its decline on Wednesday following Tuesday’s drop, breaking below the key horizontal support at the April low of 19.42.The pair has now exited the month-long consolidation range, marked by multiple failed attempts to recover above the 20-day moving average at 19.59 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April decline at 19.81. With this decisive move lower, the Peso has reached its strongest level since October, reinforcing a bearish breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36.86 confirms building downside momentum, though it is not yet oversold, leaving room for further losses. USD/MXN daily chartIf bears maintain control, the next support zone lies near 19.30, close to the October 14 swing low.However, a daily close back above 19.42 would neutralize the bearish structure, exposing the pair to a potential rebound toward 19.81 and, if momentum builds, the psychological 20.00 handle, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 20.06. Banxico FAQs What is the Bank of Mexico? The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%. How does the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy influence the Mexican Peso? The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor. How often does the Bank of Mexico meet during the year? Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
14:28 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Retraces from four-month high above 196.50
The GBP/JPY pair corrects to near 194.45 during European trading hours on Wednesday from its four-month high of 196.40 posted earlier in the day.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/JPY retraces to near 194.45 from the four-month high of 196.50 as the Japanese Yen outperforms.BoJ’s Uchida expressed confidence in more interest rate hikes ahead.The UK economy is expected to have grown strongly by 0.6% in the January-March period.The GBP/JPY pair corrects to near 194.45 during European trading hours on Wednesday from its four-month high of 196.40 posted earlier in the day. The cross retraces sharply as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens across the board after comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated that hopes of further interest rate hikes are still alive despite global economic uncertainty in the wake of tariffs announced by United States (US) President Donald Trump. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.32% -0.21% -0.98% -0.00% 0.04% -0.12% -0.41% EUR 0.32% 0.12% -0.66% 0.32% 0.36% 0.18% -0.09% GBP 0.21% -0.12% -0.80% 0.20% 0.24% 0.06% -0.21% JPY 0.98% 0.66% 0.80% 0.98% 1.02% 0.84% 0.56% CAD 0.00% -0.32% -0.20% -0.98% 0.04% -0.12% -0.40% AUD -0.04% -0.36% -0.24% -1.02% -0.04% -0.16% -0.45% NZD 0.12% -0.18% -0.06% -0.84% 0.12% 0.16% -0.28% CHF 0.41% 0.09% 0.21% -0.56% 0.40% 0.45% 0.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Japan’s underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations are likely to temporarily stagnate. But even during that period, wages are expected to continue rising as Japan’s job market is very tight, Uchida said on Tuesday, Reuters reported.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades calmly ahead of the flash United Kingdom (UK) Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to have expanded at a robust pace of 0.6%, compared to 0.1% growth seen in the last quarter of 2024.On the monetary policy front, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to reduce interest rates further as the UK labor market has cooled down. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the ILO Unemployment Rate accelerated to 4.5%, as expected, from 4.4% in the three months ending February. In the same period, the economy added 112K fresh workers, significantly lower than the prior release of 206K.GBP/JPY struggles to extend its upside above the horizontal resistance plotted from the March 27 high of 196.00. However, the outlook of the cross is still bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher, which trades around 192.32.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) retraces to near 60.00 from 67.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above the 60.00 level.The pair could extend its upside to near the January 7 high of 198.26 and the psychological level of 200.00 after breaking above the four-month high of 196.40.On the flip side, a downside move by the pair below the May 6 low of 190.33 will expose it to the March 11 low of 188.80, followed by the February 7 low of 187.00.GBP/JPY daily chart
Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu May 15, 2025 06:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.6% Previous: 0.1% Source: Office for National Statistics
Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu May 15, 2025 06:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.6% Previous: 0.1% Source: Office for National Statistics
14:26 US Dollar extends losses for second consecutive day after inflation miss, Forex talks with Korea
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is adding to its losses and dives toward the 100-marker on Wednesday.
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The Korean Won strengthened against the Greenback after the announcement that both countries have discussed Forex markets. The US Dollar Index nosedives to test the 100-level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is adding to its losses and dives toward the 100-marker on Wednesday. The move comes after softer-than-expected inflation in the US and the confirmation that the United States (US) and South Korea have been in talks about currencies, according to Bloomberg. The news opened up not-so-old wounds from earlier this month, when the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) appreciated sharply against the US Dollar. In addition, the soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for April released on Tuesday has revamped rate cut bets for the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, seeing the probability for a rate cut grow bigger compared to last week. This narrows the rate differential between the US and other countries and devalues the Greenback a touch. Daily digest market movers: A very light calendar ahead on WednesdayOnly two Fed speakers for this Wednesday:Near 13:10 GMT, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson is set to speak.Near 21:40 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a fireside chat at the California Bankers Association's 2025 Annual Conference & Directors Forum.Equities are not in a good mood this Wednesday, with losses near 0.5% in Europe and US futures also bearing minor losses ahead of the opening bell. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at just 8.2%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 38.6%.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.45%, steady as traders mull Tuesday’s inflation numbers and rate cut bets for 2025.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Not again!?A headline on possible currency adjustments appears to be enough to set off some devaluation for the Greenback. The fact that South Korea and the US have been in talks is enough to scaremonger markets in anticipation of the actual event happening. Should more headlines be revealed on the matter, or the actual intervention from the Bank of Korea (BoK) take place, expect to see possibly a revisit of the DXY to the multi-year low at 94.56.On the upside, 101.90 is the first big resistance again as it already acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. In case Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 102.29 comes into play. On the other hand, the previous resistance at 100.22 is acting as firm support, followed by 97.73, near the low of 2025. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
14:04 GBP: Eyeing a break higher – ING
The US jobs market has continued to cool, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
The US jobs market has continued to cool, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.EUR/GBP to break below 0.840 ahead of EU-UK trade talks"There hasn’t been any sign of material deterioration after the April employer tax hike, and wage growth remains too high to make the Bank of England shift to a faster gear with monetary easing. In short, the UK labour market is slowing, not collapsing, and that is translating into a steady fall in wage growth.""The Bank of England will want to see this trend continuing for a few more months before it becomes more confident on the wage story. Until then, next week’s services inflation number will be much more consequential, given that April’s data is when the big annual price hikes kick in. We think this could come in a little below the Bank’s forecasts, which would help cement an August rate cut.""EUR/GBP has now approached 0.840, and we reiterate our call for a break lower ahead of EU-UK trade talks on Monday."
14:01 USD: Strategic USD shorts quickly re-emerge – ING
The dollar gave back almost all of its post-China-deal gains in one session.
The dollar gave back almost all of its post-China-deal gains in one session. We think there is still a significant bearish appetite towards the greenback, and a cooler-than-expected 0.2% month-on-month core CPI provided an opportunity to re-enter strategic shorts, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.USD may stabilise today after two volatile days"There are likely lingering concerns that positive trade-related news may soon be outshadowed by hard evidence of the damage already done to the US economy, and there may not be enough incentive to chase dollar rebounds until clarity on the impact of tariffs has emerged. The fact that the 10-year USD swap spread (a measure of perceived Treasury market instability) has not tightened back below 50bp may still mirror concerns related to debt sustainability, and could be encouraging USD shorting.""Fed rate expectations haven’t moved after yesterday’s softer-than-expected CPI, likely because April data still wasn't showing the inflationary impact of tariffs. Markets have resized their dovish bets significantly since the US-China weekend deal, and only 50bp are now priced in by year-end. However, given the lower inflationary risks, modest observed inflation in April, and the widely shared pessimistic view on US growth, the risks are likely skewed towards the dovish side, and that can contribute to keeping the dollar recovery capped.""We think the dollar may stabilise today after two volatile days. We still expect to see a preference for high-beta commodity currencies over safe havens as markets regain risk appetite after the improved trade news."
14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications: 1.1% (May 9) vs previous 11%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications: 1.1% (May 9) vs previous 11%
13:54 EUR: Not in a prime position to rally – ING
EUR/USD is back to trading close to the 1.120 mark, entirely driven by the swings in the dollar following the US-China deal and CPI numbers, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/USD is back to trading close to the 1.120 mark, entirely driven by the swings in the dollar following the US-China deal and CPI numbers, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.EUR/USD to stabilize around 1.120 over the coming days"Our one-month target for the pair is 1.12, on the view that markets will retain interest on short-USD positioning ahead of expected US data deterioration, but that the euro is not particularly well positioned to benefit from it as the ECB continues to cut, and markets may look with more interest at higher beta currencies on the back of better risk sentiment.""In eurozone macro news, the ZEW expectations survey rebounded in May, showing increased hopes for US trade deals, although the current situation gauge failed to show any recovery.""We expect some stabilisation around 1.120 in EUR/USD over the coming days."
13:52 Oil: Iranian sanctions – ING
ICE Brent rallied by almost 2.6% yesterday, reaching its highest since late April. A weaker USD following a cooler-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) provided some tailwinds to the oil market.
ICE Brent rallied by almost 2.6% yesterday, reaching its highest since late April. A weaker USD following a cooler-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) provided some tailwinds to the oil market. However, the key catalyst is the threat of further sanctions on Iranian oil exports, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.OPEC+ likely to continue with aggressive supply hikes"Yesterday, the US Treasury sanctioned a network that facilitates shipments of Iranian crude oil to China. Also, President Trump said tougher sanctions are possible if an Iran nuclear deal isn’t struck. Trump has repeatedly threatened to drive Iranian oil exports to zero. While this is unlikely, there’s certainly room for a sizable reduction, with Iran currently exporting in the neighbourhood of 1.6m b/d. In 2019, Iranian oil exports averaged around 600k b/d after Trump reimposed sanctions in late 2018.""Lower Iranian oil flows should be welcomed by other OPEC+ members, as it provides room to increase output. For now, all signs suggest that OPEC+ will likely continue with aggressive supply hikes. We’ll have to wait until 1 June to see what the group decides for its output policy for July. Already announced supply hikes by OPEC+ should be welcomed by Trump, given his desire to see lower oil prices. However, he may want to be careful on how low prices go, given the impact it will have on the US oil industry, causing a pullback in drilling activity.""Overnight, numbers from the American Petroleum Institute show that US crude oil inventories increased by 4.29m barrels over the last week, very different from the roughly 2m barrel draw the market expected. Meanwhile, crude stocks in Cushing fell by 850k barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 1.37m barrels and 3.68m barrels, respectively. The more widely followed Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report will be released later today. Other releases include OPEC’s monthly market report, which will include their latest market outlook."
13:51 AUD/USD climbs as Australian wage growth beats expectations
The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened further against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the AUD/USD pair rising close to the 0.6500 psychological level, up nearly 2% so far this week, buoyed by a combination of weaker US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and stronger-than-expected wage growth
AUD/USD extends gains for a second day, nears the 0.6500 psychological mark.Australian wage growth beats expectations, supporting the AUD even as markets continue to price in an RBA rate cut.Weaker US CPI data drags the DXY below 100.00, pressuring the US Dollar.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened further against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the AUD/USD pair rising close to the 0.6500 psychological level, up nearly 2% so far this week, buoyed by a combination of weaker US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and stronger-than-expected wage growth in Australia.The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 100.00 level after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may consider policy easing later this year. However, for now, the Fed maintains a cautious tone, citing ongoing economic uncertainties. On the domestic front, Australia’s Wage Price Index rose by 3.4% YoY in Q1, up from a 3.2% increase in Q4 2024 and beating market forecasts of 3.2%. On a quarterly basis, wages climbed by 0.9%, accelerating from 0.7% in the previous quarter, also above the forecast of 0.8%.Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to cut interest rates at its May 20 meeting. According to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker, markets are currently pricing in a 54% probability of a 50-basis-point cut to 3.60% from the current 4.10%, reflecting rising confidence in near-term monetary easing by the central bank.This emerging policy divergence between the Fed and the RBA is adding further directional cues to AUD/USD. While the Fed holds steady, the RBA appears to be more inclined toward rate cuts to support growth amid a patchy economic recovery. Such a scenario should benefit the USD and weigh on the AUD in the mid-term.The US economic calendar is light on Wednesday, without any top-tier indicators due to be published. Still, two Federal Reserve officials – Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly – are set to speak. Their words about how they see US interest rates going forward could move the US Dollar and thus the AUD/USD pair. On Thursday, new data can move the needle: Australia will publish its employment report for April, while in the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and Jobless Claims data will be released.
Technical analysis: AUD/USD eyes breakout above 0.6500AUD/USD is trading near 0.6480 at the time of writing, approaching the key resistance at 0.6500, which aligns closely with the previous week’s high. A decisive break above this level could expose the next upside target at 0.6700, a level last seen in November 2024.On the downside, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6410 offers strong dynamic support, followed by the horizontal support at 0.6350, which has acted as a key pivot in recent months.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 59, suggesting positive momentum without being overbought, leaving room for further gains if bullish pressure persists.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened further against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the AUD/USD pair rising close to the 0.6500 psychological level, up nearly 2% so far this week, buoyed by a combination of weaker US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and stronger-than-expected wage growth in Australia.The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 100.00 level after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may consider policy easing later this year. However, for now, the Fed maintains a cautious tone, citing ongoing economic uncertainties. On the domestic front, Australia’s Wage Price Index rose by 3.4% YoY in Q1, up from a 3.2% increase in Q4 2024 and beating market forecasts of 3.2%. On a quarterly basis, wages climbed by 0.9%, accelerating from 0.7% in the previous quarter, also above the forecast of 0.8%.Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to cut interest rates at its May 20 meeting. According to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker, markets are currently pricing in a 54% probability of a 50-basis-point cut to 3.60% from the current 4.10%, reflecting rising confidence in near-term monetary easing by the central bank.This emerging policy divergence between the Fed and the RBA is adding further directional cues to AUD/USD. While the Fed holds steady, the RBA appears to be more inclined toward rate cuts to support growth amid a patchy economic recovery. Such a scenario should benefit the USD and weigh on the AUD in the mid-term.The US economic calendar is light on Wednesday, without any top-tier indicators due to be published. Still, two Federal Reserve officials – Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly – are set to speak. Their words about how they see US interest rates going forward could move the US Dollar and thus the AUD/USD pair. On Thursday, new data can move the needle: Australia will publish its employment report for April, while in the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and Jobless Claims data will be released.
Technical analysis: AUD/USD eyes breakout above 0.6500AUD/USD is trading near 0.6480 at the time of writing, approaching the key resistance at 0.6500, which aligns closely with the previous week’s high. A decisive break above this level could expose the next upside target at 0.6700, a level last seen in November 2024.On the downside, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6410 offers strong dynamic support, followed by the horizontal support at 0.6350, which has acted as a key pivot in recent months.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 59, suggesting positive momentum without being overbought, leaving room for further gains if bullish pressure persists.
13:49 NZD/USD: RBNZ to keep cutting in May – ING
Another 25bp rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on 28 May seems likely. Markets are fully pricing it in, following the RBNZ’s previous indications that growth remains a major concern, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.
Another 25bp rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on 28 May seems likely. Markets are fully pricing it in, following the RBNZ’s previous indications that growth remains a major concern, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.US-China trade tensions can drive AUD/NZD to 1.10-1.11"However, market pricing for two additional cuts after May looks a little too dovish given non-tradable inflation remained elevated at 4% and the unemployment rate flattened at 5.1% in the first quarter.""The Kiwi dollar should keep acting as a lower-beta version of AUD to trade news. Further de-escalation in US-China trade tensions can drive AUD/NZD back to the 1.10-1.11 area where it traded at the start of this year."
13:46 USD/CNH: Likely to trade sideways between 7.1850 and 7.2100 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade sideways between 7.1850 and 7.2100. In the longer run, renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 is back in sight, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade sideways between 7.1850 and 7.2100. In the longer run, renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 is back in sight, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 is back in sight24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, when USD was at 7.2000, we expected USD to 'continue to weaken.' However, we pointed out, 'the major support at 7.1700 is likely out of reach for now.' We were not wrong, as USD dropped to 7.1791 and then rebounded to close largely unchanged at 7.1964 (-0.04%). Downward momentum has faded with the rebound. Today, USD is likely to trade sideways, probably between 7.1850 and 7.2100." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a negative USD view since early last week. As we tracked the price movements, we indicated yesterday (13 May, spot at 7.2000) that 'the renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 could be back in sight.' Our view remains unchanged. Overall, only a breach of 7.2330 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 7.2420) would mean that the downside risk has faded."
13:45 USD/JPY plummets below 146.00 as soft US CPI data batters Greenback
The USD/JPY pair plunges to near 145.80 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The pair faces a sharp sell-off as the US Dollar (USD) has been hit hard by the soft United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY slides below 146.00 as the US Dollar retraces significantly due to soft US inflation data for April.The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady in the July meeting.BoJ’s Uchida is confident of stable wage growth and inflation despite US tariffs-led global economic uncertainty.The USD/JPY pair plunges to near 145.80 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The pair faces a sharp sell-off as the US Dollar (USD) has been hit hard by the soft United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its correction from the monthly high of 102.00 to near 100.50. The data showed on Tuesday that the US headline inflation fell to 2.3%, the lowest level seen since February 2021.On Tuesday, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee expressed confidence that soft inflation and agreement between the US and China to reduce tariffs substantially paint a brighter inflation outlook, which could allow the central bank to lower interest rates, USA Today reported.However, traders have not pared bets supporting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to leave interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in the July policy meeting.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in July is marginally down to 63.3% from 65.1% seen on Tuesday.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) performs strongly across the board as hopes of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the near term remain alive. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is confident of sustained wage growth and inflation despite global economic uncertainty due to the fallout of US tariffs, Reuters reported. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.43% -0.27% -1.07% -0.08% -0.09% -0.24% -0.56% EUR 0.43% 0.16% -0.64% 0.35% 0.36% 0.17% -0.12% GBP 0.27% -0.16% -0.82% 0.19% 0.19% 0.00% -0.28% JPY 1.07% 0.64% 0.82% 0.98% 0.99% 0.81% 0.50% CAD 0.08% -0.35% -0.19% -0.98% -0.00% -0.16% -0.47% AUD 0.09% -0.36% -0.19% -0.99% 0.00% -0.16% -0.49% NZD 0.24% -0.17% -0.01% -0.81% 0.16% 0.16% -0.31% CHF 0.56% 0.12% 0.28% -0.50% 0.47% 0.49% 0.31% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Japan’s underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations are likely to temporarily stagnate. But even during that period, wages are expected to continue rising as Japan’s job market is very tight, Uchida said. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
13:42 AUD/USD: Cheering the US-China de-escalation – ING
USD and the Australian dollar are the biggest beneficiaries in G10 from a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.
USD and the Australian dollar are the biggest beneficiaries in G10 from a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.News on the US-China deal may not derail easing plans "With the USD having to face the reality of the economic damage already dealt, AUD/USD may find some support in the coming weeks.""Domestically, the deceleration in first-quarter core inflation means the Reserve Bank of Australia can deliver a widely expected 25bp rate cut on 20 May. The news on the US-China deal should not derail easing plans for now, but probably argues that market pricing for four cuts by year-end is a bit too aggressive."
13:34 USD/JPY: Further USD strength is likely – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 146.70 and 148.20. In the longer run, further USD strength is likely, but it could first trade in a range for a few days; the level to monitor is 149.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 146.70 and 148.20. In the longer run, further USD strength is likely, but it could first trade in a range for a few days; the level to monitor is 149.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD/JPY can first trade in a range for a few days24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the 2.14% surge in USD on Monday, we indicated yesterday, Tuesday, that 'The outsized rise appears excessive.' We added, 'This, combined with deeply overbought conditions, suggests that instead of continuing to rise, USD is more likely to trade in a 146.50/148.60 range.' USD then traded between 147.35 and 148.48. The price movements still appear to be part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect USD to trade between 146.70 and 148.20." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update yesterday (13 May, spot at 147.90). As highlighted, 'while the sharp and rapid increase in momentum suggests further USD strength, deeply overbought conditions could lead to a few days of range trading first.' We also highlighted that 'The level to monitor on the upside is 149.30.' We will continue to hold the same view as long as 146.00 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached."
13:16 USD/CAD: Case for 1.40+ is stronger now – ING
USD/CAD observed volatility has eased back significantly, as the loonie seems to be trading again as an extension of US-growth sentiment – and is therefore more correlated with USD, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.
USD/CAD observed volatility has eased back significantly, as the loonie seems to be trading again as an extension of US-growth sentiment – and is therefore more correlated with USD, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.The case for a return above 1.40 is now quite compelling"May has started on a soft tone for CAD as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first trip to meet Trump didn’t suggest that US-Canada tensions will abate soon. Renegotiations of the USMCA won’t be as quick as transcontinental trade deals, either for the US or Canada.""The short-term risks are moderately on the upside for USD/CAD, as the pair’s short-term fair value still sits close to 1.42. Some risk premium on USD should remain, but the case for a return above 1.40 is now quite compelling, also as domestic data deterioration may prompt the Bank of Canada to cut rates again in June."
13:03 EUR/USD extends recovery as soft US inflation data keeps US Dollar on backfoot
EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.1250 during European trading hours on Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s gains.
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The major currency pair has attracted significant bids at the expense of the US Dollar (USD), with the US Dollar Index (DXY) – which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies – extending its retracement from the monthly high of 102.00 to around 100.50.The Greenback suffers as United States (US) President Donald Trump criticized the Federal Reserve (Fed) again for not lowering interest rates after the release of the softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April on Tuesday. The data showed that the headline CPI rose by 2.3%, the lowest level in over four years."No Inflation, and Prices of Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and practically everything else, are DOWN!!! THE FED must lower the RATE, like Europe and China have done," Trump said in a post on Truth Social and added: "What is wrong with Too Late Powell? Not fair to America, which is ready to blossom? Just let it all happen, it will be a beautiful thing!”.Despite slowing inflationary pressures and calls for interest rate cuts from US President Trump, traders have not pared bets supporting the Fed to cut borrowing rates before the September policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in July is marginally down to 63.3% from 65.1% seen on Tuesday.It seems that an improvement in the US economic outlook due to the agreement with China for a temporary trade truce has absorbed the impact of cooling inflationary pressures. On Monday, the US and China agreed to avert a full-blown trade war and lowered tariffs by 115 percentage points.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains as Euro outperforms despite solid ECB dovish betsEUR/USD gains significantly due to a sharp correction in the US Dollar. The Euro (EUR) trades higher against its peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), on Wednesday. The major currency performs strongly even though European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to stress the need to reduce interest rates further amid increasing confidence that US tariff policies will not increase Eurozone inflation. Theoretically, lower interest rates by the ECB bode poorly for the Euro.“We don’t see inflation picking up. The Trump administration’s protectionism will lead to a restart of inflation in the US, but not in Europe, which will likely allow for another rate cut by the summer,” ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of France Francois Villeroy de Galhau said, Reuters reported.Meanwhile, investors seek fresh cues on the progress of trade talks between the US and the European Union (EU). Investors have become anxious due to an absence of commentary from the White House about any progress in trade talks with the trading bloc, assuming sluggish efforts from the European Commission (EC) in resolving trade issues.This week, the major trigger for the shared currency pair will be the speech from Fed Chair Powell at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington on Thursday. Fed Powell is expected to provide fresh guidance on the monetary policy outlook in the wake of a temporary truce between the US and China. On the economic front, investors will focus on the Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April, which will be released on Thursday.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD recovers to near 1.1250EUR/USD extends its recovery to near 1.1250 on Wednesday. The pair bounces back strongly and recovers above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.1220, suggesting that the trend has turned bullish.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers strongly from 40.00, suggesting that bullish bias is intact.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the March 11 high of 1.0950 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
12:59 NZD/USD: Likely to rise further – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to rise further; it is unlikely to be able to break clearly above 0.5965. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to rise further; it is unlikely to be able to break clearly above 0.5965. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range24-HOUR VIEW: "The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: 'Despite dropping sharply to 0.5847 yesterday, downward momentum has not increased significantly. However, the risk for NZD is on the downside, but any further decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.5835/0.5900.' NZD then dipped 0.5848 before surging, reaching a high of 0.5942. The rapid rise is overbought, but with no signs of exhaustion just yet, NZD could rise further today. However, conditions are deeply overbought, and NZD is unlikely to be able to break above 0.5965. Support levels are at 0.5910 and 0.5885." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (09 May, spot at 0.5900), we highlighted the following: 'There has been a slight increase in momentum, indicating the bias for NZD is tilted to the downside toward 0.5870, potentially reaching 0.5835. The downward bias will remain intact provided that the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 0.5960, is not breached.' Yesterday (13 May, spot at 0.5860), we indicated that 'although downward momentum has not increased much further, the chance of NZD reaching 0.5835 has increased.' We did not expect NZD to then soar above our ‘strong resistance’ level of 0.5940 (high was 0.5942). The buildup in momentum has fizzled out. The recent price movements have resulted in a mixed outlook. For the time being, we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range."
12:50 GBP/USD: Some emerging optimism for the pound – ING
Pound Sterling (GBP) is holding up quite well as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivers some wins on trade and geopolitics, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is holding up quite well as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivers some wins on trade and geopolitics, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.GBP rates to stay relatively high within the G10"The big story this summer, however, could be warmer relations with Europe. The focal point here is the EU-UK summit on 19 May, where a defence pact should be signed and positive commentary should emerge on closer alignment. The desire here is to have the UK’s growth potential revised higher by the Office for Budget Responsibility, providing more fiscal headroom to the government.""Elsewhere, we look for the Bank of England to cut rates twice more this year (to 3.75%), but GBP rates to stay relatively high within the G10. Its liquidity should be a boon for GBP during de-dollarisation."
12:46 AUD/USD: Any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.6420/0.6515 – UOB Group
Scope for further Australian Dollar (AUD) strength against the US Dollar (USD), but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.6420/0.6515. In the longer run, to continue to rise, AUD must break and hold above 0.6515, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Scope for further Australian Dollar (AUD) strength against the US Dollar (USD), but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.6420/0.6515. In the longer run, to continue to rise, AUD must break and hold above 0.6515, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD must break and hold above 0.6515 to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted 'a slight increase in downward momentum' yesterday, and we expected AUD to 'test 0.6350.' We highlighted that 'the major support at 0.6330 is unlikely to come under threat.' AUD then dipped to 0.6362 before staging a surprisingly sharp rally, reaching a high of 0.6479. Strong momentum suggests there is scope for further AUD strength. However, overbought conditions indicate that any advance is likely part of a higher 0.6420/0.6515 range. In other words, AUD is unlikely to break clearly above last week’s high of 0.6515." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Friday (09 May), when AUD was at 0.6400. In the update, we indicated that 'the increase in momentum is not enough to suggest a sustained decline just yet, and AUD must break and hold below 0.6370 before a move to 0.6330 can be expected.' While AUD subsequently dropped below 0.6370, it did not close below this level. Yesterday, AUD rallied, closing at 0.6472, up sharply by 1.57%. The breach of our ‘strong resistance’ level of 0.6460 indicates that the chance of AUD breaking lower has dissipated. After the sharp rally, upward momentum has strengthened, but this time around, it is not enough to indicate a sustained rise. To continue to rise, AUD must break and hold above 0.6515. The chance of AUD breaking clearly above 0.6515 will increase in the next few days, provided that the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6370, is not breached."
12:42 Germany 30-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.83% to 3.12%
Germany 30-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.83% to 3.12%
12:42 Fed's Goolsbee: Some parts of April inflation represent lagged nature of data
In an interview with National Public Radio (NPR) on Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted that some parts of the April inflation report represent the lagged nature of the data, adding that the Fed is still holding its breath.
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In an interview with National Public Radio (NPR) on Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted that some parts of the April inflation report represent the lagged nature of the data, adding that the Fed is still holding its breath.Key takeaways"It will take time for current inflation trends to show up in the data.""Right now is a time for the Fed to wait for more information, try to get past the noise in the data.""The Fed's job is to be a steady hand not respond to daily gyrations of stock market or policy pronouncements.""Cannot jump to conclusions about long-term trends given all the short term volatility."Market reactionThe US Dollar stays on the back foot following these comments. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.57% on the day at 100.35. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
12:34 United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction up to 4.673% from previous 4.638%
United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction up to 4.673% from previous 4.638%
12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $32.82 per troy ounce, down 0.26% from the $32.91 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have increased by 13.60% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 32.82 1 Gram 1.06
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 98.50 on Wednesday, down from 98.77 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 98.50 on Wednesday, down from 98.77 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:22 USD/JPY: Quite the round trip! – ING
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was one of the prime beneficiaries of the ‘sell America’ theme that we briefly saw in April, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was one of the prime beneficiaries of the ‘sell America’ theme that we briefly saw in April, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.USD/JPY to target 140 "The failure of US Treasuries to play the role of ‘safe asset’ was central here. Our rates strategy team does not rule out that happening again this summer should Washington push ahead with unfunded tax cuts. Recall that around $5tr is required to pay for an extension of the TCJA 2017 tax-cutting legislation.""For the short term, heavy one-way positioning long yen could see the 150 level retested – but we doubt it stays there long.""A 25bp rate hike from the Bank of Japan in the third quarter, when the Fed restarts its easing cycle, points to 140 for USD/JPY."
12:18 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Tests 100.50 support, with nine-day EMA providing backing
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is losing ground for the second successive session, trading near 100.50 during the European hours on Wednesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar Index could retest the 50-day EMA near the 101.78 level.Technical analysis indicates a continued bullish bias, as the index remains within an ascending channel.The DXY is testing its initial support at the nine-day EMA of 100.47.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is losing ground for the second successive session, trading near 100.50 during the European hours on Wednesday.On the daily chart, technical analysis suggested a sustained bullish bias, with the index trading within an ascending channel. Additionally, the DXY is still positioned above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term momentum is stronger. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves below the 50 level, indicating weakening of a bullish bias.To the upside, the US Dollar Index may target again the 50-day EMA at the 101.77 level, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 102.10. A break above this crucial resistance zone would reinforce bullish bias and support the index to explore the area around the two-month high at 104.37, reached on April 1.On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 100.47. A break below this level could weaken the short-term price momentum and lead the DXY to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 99.80. A break below the channel would dampen the bullish bias and put pressure on the index to navigate the region around 97.91 — the lowest level since March 2022, which was recorded on April 21.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.57% -0.33% -0.95% -0.18% -0.34% -0.38% -0.60% EUR 0.57% 0.26% -0.38% 0.40% 0.25% 0.18% -0.03% GBP 0.33% -0.26% -0.64% 0.14% -0.01% -0.08% -0.28% JPY 0.95% 0.38% 0.64% 0.77% 0.62% 0.55% 0.34% CAD 0.18% -0.40% -0.14% -0.77% -0.16% -0.20% -0.44% AUD 0.34% -0.25% 0.00% -0.62% 0.16% -0.05% -0.27% NZD 0.38% -0.18% 0.08% -0.55% 0.20% 0.05% -0.23% CHF 0.60% 0.03% 0.28% -0.34% 0.44% 0.27% 0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
12:18 TRY: Balance of payments data signal more risk – Commerzbank
The Turkish balance of payments data for March published yesterday are perhaps out of date already, but they brought early warning signs that foreign capital flow could reverse under political or market volatility.
The Turkish balance of payments data for March published yesterday are perhaps out of date already, but they brought early warning signs that foreign capital flow could reverse under political or market volatility. During March, Turkey witnessed renewed market volatility triggered by the detention of mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, which drove the lira exchange rate abruptly weaker. In response, the central bank (CBT) took actions which appeared to be decisive, such as raising the effective interest rate, but ultimately relied on mechanisms which we view as a step backward, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. Significant downside risk for the Turkish lira"The re-introduction of the 'rate corridor', a distortive and opaque system which had been previously abandoned, is a major point of criticism. This move, coupled with ad hoc FX interventions, and recent re-introduction of soft capital controls such as forced sale of FX by exporters signal a retreat from clear, transparent, and rule-based conventional policies. ""Even while the effective cost of funding is higher than the benchmark rate, this flip-flopping of monetary policy as soon as a mini-crisis arrived, has fundamentally undermined the beneficial impact of higher rates. The FX interventions are anyway not sustainable. Some reports estimate more than $57bn lost in just six weeks, nearly erasing two years of re-building by CBT.""Compounding the situation, we now find from March balance of payments data that capital inflow reversed to notable net outflow already within March: portfolio flow and bank sector flow both registered net outflow ($3.6bn each) for the month as a whole. A part of this could be on account of a seasonal lull which follows hectic allocations and fundraising early in the year, but this is not a satisfactory explanation for net outflows – rather, this warns us that April and May could feature a continuation of the trend, which would imply further pressure on policymakers. We see significant downside risk for the Turkish lira exchange rate in coming months."
12:12 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) could continue to rebound against US Dollar (USD), but any advance is likely limited to a test of 1.3340. In the longer run, buildup in momentum has faded; GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) could continue to rebound against US Dollar (USD), but any advance is likely limited to a test of 1.3340. In the longer run, buildup in momentum has faded; GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Buildup in momentum has faded24-HOUR VIEW: "GBP dropped to 1.3140 on Monday. Yesterday, Tuesday, when GBP was at 1.3180, we indicated that it 'could retest 1.3140 before a more sustained recovery can be expected.' However, GBP did not retest 1.3140. Instead, it rebounded directly to 1.3316, closing on a firm note at 1.3304, up by 0.96%. Today, GBP could continue to rebound, but as conditions are approaching overbought, any further advance is likely limited to a test of 1.3340. The major resistance at 1.3405 is not expected to come into view. Support is at 1.3275; a breach of 1.3245 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned negative in GBP last Friday (09 May, spot at 1.3240), but we indicated that 'it is unclear whether GBP can break clearly below 1.3150.' After GBP dropped to 1.3140, we highlighted yesterday (13 May, spot at 1.3180) that GBP 'is expected to weaken, but the major support at 1.3070 may not come into view so soon.' We did not anticipate the subsequent sharp rebound to 1.3316. The breach of our ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.3275 indicated that the buildup in momentum has faded. The current price movements are likely part of a 1.3140/1.3405 range trading phase."
12:08 ECB's Nagel: Role of the Euro will become stronger as a reserve currency over the next few years
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is speaking at a panel discussion at the New Economy forum in Madrid on Wednesday.
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European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is speaking at a panel discussion at the New Economy forum in Madrid on Wednesday.Key takeawaysDollar is very important for the world financial system.But the role of the Euro will become stronger as a reserve currency over the next few years. Related news ECB's Nagel: June rate decision will depend on incoming data EUR/USD Forecast: Euro looks to extend technical rebound German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rebounds to 25.2 in May vs. 11.9 expected
11:59 Implications of the US inflation figures – Commerzbank
The US Dollar (USD) depreciated significantly yesterday following the weaker-than-expected US inflation data. At first glance, this may seem logical. After all, subdued inflationary pressure favours potentially faster interest rate cuts by the Fed. However, the reaction was anything but trivial.
The US Dollar (USD) depreciated significantly yesterday following the weaker-than-expected US inflation data. At first glance, this may seem logical. After all, subdued inflationary pressure favours potentially faster interest rate cuts by the Fed. However, the reaction was anything but trivial. One could just as well argue that the risks of stagflation have diminished, which would be positive for the dollar, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. FX market react to the US CPI figures with USD weakness"However, the fact that the FX market reacted to the figures with dollar weakness could also be due to something else: The US president is likely to feel vindicated by the result. And this does not mean the - admittedly significantly lower - egg prices, but above all the lack of a tariff effect in the April price data, which may have surprised some. Of course, explanations can be found: Sufficient inventory, for example, which allow companies to delay price increases. However, the fact is that so far there has been little sign of the horrendous price increases that were feared. This is good news for those in favour of a tough US tariff strategy, as it reduces the pressure on the US government to withdraw tariffs as quickly as possible and present ‘deals’ with trading partners.""On the other hand, however, the inflation figures also show that the impact of the tariffs could be more difficult to assess than expected. This does not make things any easier for the US Federal Reserve and may suggest that it is more likely to hold off on a possible interest rate cut. Even if the recent agreement between the US and Chinese governments on a significant reduction in reciprocal tariffs has reduced the price risks, there is likely to be agreement that a tariff of 30% on imports from China still has a significant inflationary effect.""This could be all the more the case as Fed Chairman Jay Powell is under fire from US President Trump. The latter could not resist lashing out at Powell on his favourite social media channel yesterday after the inflation figures. If only to underpin the independence of the US central bank, it could be worthwhile for the Fed to continue to reject hopes of rapid interest rate cuts. After all, inflation has not fallen massively short of expectations (0.2% instead of 0.3% compared to the previous month according to the Bloomberg survey). Perhaps we shouldn't get carried away?"
11:57 WTI Price Forecast: Bulls have the upper hand while above $62.00/200-period SMA on H4
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices remain depressed through the early European session on Wednesday and for now, seem to have snapped a four-day winning streak to mid-$63.00s, or over a two-week high touched the previous day.
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The commodity currently trades around the $62.85 region, down nearly 0.60% for the day, though the intraday downtick lacks bearish conviction. From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout and close above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buyers near the said breakpoint, around the $62.00 mark, warranting some caution for bearish traders.Some follow-through selling, however, could pave the way for deeper losses towards the $61.30 intermediate support en route to the $61.00 round figure. The next relevant support is pegged near the $60.40 region, below which Crude Oil prices could test the $60.00 psychological mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which, if broken, will suggest that an over one-week-old uptrend has run out of steam.On the flip side, bulls might now wait for a move beyond the $63.45-$63.50 region, or over a two-week high set on Tuesday. Oil prices might then accelerate the positive move towards reclaiming the $64.00 mark and then test the $64.65-$64.70 horizontal barrier. This is followed by the $65.00 psychological mark, which, if cleared decisively, should pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.WTI 4-hour chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
11:55 EUR/USD: Cyclical versus structural challenges – ING
The dollar is doing its best to unwind April's sharp losses, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.
The dollar is doing its best to unwind April's sharp losses, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.Support can be found at 1.09/1.10 now"The temporary reductions in tariffs – pointing at room for negotiation – have helped a 5% risk premium come out of the dollar. But this year's rally in EUR/USD was not entirely driven by trade. EU fiscal stimulus drove a good part of the Feb/March rally and should be reason enough for support to be found at 1.09/1.10 now.""The market's pricing of just 55bp of Fed rate cuts this year seems quite modest now. We think the Fed could start with a 25bp rate cut in September and bring the policy rate down towards the 3.50% area next year. The European Central Bank will likely cut by 25bp on two occasions – probably in June and September.""Evidence on the structural de-dollarisation theme will be hard to come by, but the theme will undoubtedly weigh on the dollar."
11:51 EUR/USD: Current corrective pullback has a chance to reach 1.0945 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) could rebound further vs US Dollar (USD), but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1125/1.1225.
Euro (EUR) could rebound further vs US Dollar (USD), but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1125/1.1225. In the longer run, EUR remains under pressure, but it remains to be seen if the current corrective pullback can reach 1.0945, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR remains under pressure24-HOUR VIEW: "Two days ago, EUR plunged by 1.42% to close at 1.1087. Yesterday, when it was at 1.1095, we noted that 'the sharp and swift selloff is deeply oversold.' However, we pointed out, 'With no signs of stabilisation just yet, there is scope for USD to weaken further, but any decline is unlikely to break the major support at 1.1055.' We were incorrect. Instead of weakening, EUR rebounded to a high of 1.1194. While EUR could rebound further today, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1125/1.1225. To put it another way, any advance is unlikely to break clearly above 1.1225." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (09 May, spot at 1.1220), we indicated that 'buildup in momentum indicates further declines in EUR toward 1.1145.' After EUR plummeted on Monday, we highlighted yesterday (13 May, spot at 1.1095) that EUR “remains under pressure, but it remains to be seen if the current corrective pullback can reach 1.0945.' We continue to hold the same view, but after the subsequent rebound, the likelihood of EUR pulling back further to 1.0945 has decreased. Conversely, a break above 1.1225 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday) would mean that EUR has entered a consolidation phase."
11:41 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds losses below $33.00 as safe-haven demand weakens
Silver price (XAG/USD) Oil price halts its four-day winning streak, trading around $32.80 per troy ounce during the European hours on Wednesday. The metal’s safe-haven appeal has weakened amid easing global trade tensions.
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The metal’s safe-haven appeal has weakened amid easing global trade tensions.Reports indicate that the US and China have reached a preliminary agreement to substantially reduce tariffs. Under the proposed terms, the US would lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China would reduce its tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. This development is widely seen as a positive step toward de-escalating trade tensions between the two economic giants.Further boosting sentiment, US President Donald Trump told Fox News that the US is working to expand market access in China and described US-China relations as “excellent.” Trump also signaled a willingness to engage in direct talks with President Xi Jinping in pursuit of a broader trade agreement.As geopolitical risks recede, markets are scaling back expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, putting additional pressure on safe-haven demand for Silver. However, weaker-than-expected US consumer inflation data for April provided some support for precious metals, as the US Dollar (USD) softened, making Silver more attractive to non-dollar holders.April’s inflation numbers marked a three-year low in annual headline CPI, though analysts believe it may be the last subdued reading for some time, with new US tariffs on major trade partners set to take effect in May. Market focus now shifts to upcoming data releases, including the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey.According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-over-year in April, slightly below March’s 2.4% and market forecasts. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, climbed 2.8% annually, in line with expectations. Both headline and core CPI rose 0.2% on a monthly basis. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
11:33 Gold retreats slightly, failing to benefit from US dollar weakness
Gold (XAU/USD) dips back to $3,225 on Wednesday as it faces renewed outflows, erasing almost all the gains registered on Tuesday. Softer-than-expected inflation data for April released on Tuesday provided a sigh of relief for markets, with the widely-feared inflation shock from tariffs not material
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Traders are mulling the outlook for interest-rate cuts from the Fed while balancing the risks in equities. More downside for Gold could come if President Trump announces more trade deals. Gold (XAU/USD) dips back to $3,225 on Wednesday as it faces renewed outflows, erasing almost all the gains registered on Tuesday. Softer-than-expected inflation data for April released on Tuesday provided a sigh of relief for markets, with the widely-feared inflation shock from tariffs not materializing yet. The softer-than-expected reading for both the monthly Headline and core components boosted a relief rally in equities and led investors to price in more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts for this year. Without any top-tier data releases for Wednesday in the Economic Calendar, markets will look for further clues after President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia and secured $600 billion in trade deals. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is said to be ready to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul for peace talks, although Putin hasn’t confirmed his attendance. Both Europe and the US have urged Putin to come to Istanbul, while new sanctions are being weighed as countermeasures if peace talks do not take place. Daily digest market movers: Alaskan Gold Mine faces tariff riskGold is facing more downside pressure, several analysts and Gold traders confirm to Bloomberg. “The US-China tariff rates surprised materially to the downside, which eases investor concerns around trade-driven growth risks,“ said Justin Lin, an analyst at Global X ETFs. “Capital is likely flowing out of defensive sectors and Gold," he added. Still, the Gold rally could possibly not yet be out of steam, according to Amy Lo, UBS head of wealth management in Asia. UBS Group AG’s rich clients are increasingly shifting away from US-dollar assets, turning instead to Gold, crypto and investments in China. “Gold is getting very popular,” Amy Lo said in an interview with Yvonne Man at Bloomberg’s New Voices event Tuesday in Hong Kong. India’s trade deficit likely narrowed to $18.9 billion in April from $21.5 billion in March. The contraction in the deficit was partly due to a drop in Gold imports – a surge in prices likely reduced demand for the metal. A sharp drop in crude Oil prices is also expected to lower Oil imports, countering a typical seasonal jump in volumes.Gold Price Technical Analysis: Not breaking just yetDespite the selling pressure on Wednesday, a fresh low for this week has not materialized as Monday’s low at $3,207 hasn’t been tested.. Gold appears to be in a consolidation stage, with lower highs and higher lows. Whichever gets broken first will see further follow-through towards either $3,300 or $3,200. The daily Pivot Point at $3,243 needs to be reclaimed first in case of any recovery. In case of a breakout, out of the consolidation, the R1 at $3,271 will certainly be tested. Not for from there, the R2 at $3,293 is possibly the last level to offer firm resistance before entering the $3,300 area again. On the downside, the daily S1 support at $3,222 already offered ample support in Asian trading. In case a breakout materializes, look for the S2 at $3,194 before the pivotal technical support at $3,167 will pop up.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
11:31 ECB's Nagel: June rate decision will depend on incoming data
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday that June's interest rate decision will depend on incoming data.
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European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday that June's interest rate decision will depend on incoming data. Nagel explained that they don't yet know the exact impact from tariffs on inflation and the economy and noted that they will publish new staff projections next month. He added that central banks need to get used to managing the uncertainty. Market reactionEUR/USD preserves its bullish momentum following these remarks. At the time of press, EUR/USD was up 0.5% on the day at 1.1240. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
11:07 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rises to near 0.5950 after breaking above nine-day EMA
The NZD/USD pair holds gains after registering approximately 1.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 0.5940 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a neutral stance, as the pair continues to consolidate within a rectangular range.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD could target the rectangle’s upper boundary around 0.6020, followed by the six-month high of 0.6038.The 14-day RSI has climbed above the 50 level, hinting at a developing bullish bias.A break below the nine-day EMA of 0.5929 would weaken the short-term price momentum.The NZD/USD pair holds gains after registering approximately 1.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 0.5940 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a neutral stance, as the pair continues to consolidate within a rectangular range.However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above the 50 level, hinting at a developing bullish bias. Moreover, the NZD/USD pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), pointing to strengthening short-term upward momentum.The NZD/USD pair could target the rectangle’s upper boundary around 0.6020, followed by the six-month high of 0.6038, last seen in November 2024. A break above this crucial resistance zone could open the doors for the pair to explore the region around the seven-month high near 0.6350, recorded in October 2024.On the downside, the NZD/USD pair may test its initial support at the nine-day EMA of 0.5929. A break below this level would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to retest the initial support at the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.5850, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 0.5843. A sustained move below this key support zone could further deteriorate medium-term momentum, potentially exposing the pair to a deeper decline toward 0.5485 — a level last seen in March 2020.NZD/USD: Daily Chart New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.41% -0.29% -0.72% -0.11% -0.33% -0.30% -0.36% EUR 0.41% 0.12% -0.25% 0.29% 0.09% 0.10% 0.04% GBP 0.29% -0.12% -0.37% 0.17% -0.03% -0.03% -0.09% JPY 0.72% 0.25% 0.37% 0.54% 0.32% 0.34% 0.27% CAD 0.11% -0.29% -0.17% -0.54% -0.22% -0.18% -0.25% AUD 0.33% -0.09% 0.03% -0.32% 0.22% 0.02% -0.04% NZD 0.30% -0.10% 0.03% -0.34% 0.18% -0.02% -0.08% CHF 0.36% -0.04% 0.09% -0.27% 0.25% 0.04% 0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
10:56 Pound Sterling grips gains against US Dollar after softer-than-expected US inflation data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades firmly around 1.3300 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session, near Tuesday’s high.
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The GBP/USD pair clings to gains as the US Dollar retreats after the release of the softer-than-expected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April on Tuesday.US headline inflation fell to 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level seen since February 2021. The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – grew steadily by 2.8%, as expected. On month, both headline and core CPI grew at a slower pace of 0.2%.Technically, signs of cooling inflationary pressures should lead traders to support bets of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, market expectations for the Fed to leave interest rates steady in the July meeting have not diverged even an inch from the levels seen on Monday, a day prior to the release of US inflation data.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in July remained steady at 61.4%. However, it is up significantly from 29.8% seen last week after the US and China announced a substantial reduction in tariffs.Investors have taken the agreement with China as a favorable event for the US economic outlook, forcing them to delay expectations for interest rate cuts and offsetting the effects of declining inflation. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump continues to endorse the need for rate cuts, strengthening his argument in the wake of falling prices of significant goods. "No Inflation, and Prices of Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and practically everything else, are DOWN!!! THE FED must lower the RATE, like Europe and China have done," Trump said on Truth Social. Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates: "What is wrong with Too Late Powell? Not fair to America, which is ready to blossom? Just let it all happen, it will be a beautiful thing!” Trump added.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades steady in calm day for marketsThe Pound Sterling trades cautiously against its major peers on Wednesday as investors reassess market expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook for the remainder of the year after the release of the labor market data for the three months ending March on Tuesday.The data showed lower job growth, a higher Unemployment Rate, and slowing wage growth. It seems that businesses lightened their hiring process ahead of an increase in employers’ contributions to social security schemes that came into effect in April.Meanwhile, moderate growth in Average Earnings data is expected to provide relief to BoE officials. Policymakers pay close attention to the wage growth data as it is a major driver of inflation in the services sector, a key factor behind persistent United Kingdom (UK) price pressures.Despite increasing hopes of cooling price pressures, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill warned on Tuesday that inflation could continue to prove stronger-than-expected, which might strengthen the need to maintain interest rates higher. “I remain concerned that we have seen a sort of structural change in price and wage-setting behaviour, maybe driven by the type of things that were involved in models of the inflation process from the ’70s and ’80s," Pill said in a conference at the London School of Economics, Reuters reported.Going forward, the major trigger for the Pound Sterling will be the preliminary UK Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and factory data, which will be released on Thursday. The UK economy is expected to have expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter of the year, faster than the 0.1% growth seen in the last quarter of 2024.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling clings to gains near 1.3300The Pound Sterling holds onto gains around 1.3300 against the US Dollar on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair returns above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3255, suggesting that the trend has turned bullish again.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range. A fresh bullish momentum would appear if the RSI breaks above 60.00.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3000 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:32 USD/CAD stays below 1.3950 due to potential widening of US-Canada yield spread
USD/CAD remains subdued for the second consecutive session, hovering near 1.3930 during early European trading on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) lost ground after April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in below forecasts, prompting a shift in market sentiment.
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The US Dollar (USD) lost ground after April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in below forecasts, prompting a shift in market sentiment.The headline CPI rose 2.3% year-over-year in April, slightly down from 2.4% in March and below market expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.8% annually, matching both the previous reading and consensus. On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI climbed 0.2%. Traders now look ahead to key upcoming US data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey, due later this week.In Canada, consumer confidence continues to weaken. The IPSOS Consumer Confidence Index fell to 47.70 in April from 48.20 in March—the lowest level since July 2024. The decline reflects growing concerns over economic stability amid an ongoing trade dispute with the United States (US), as well as fears surrounding inflation and job security.Meanwhile, last Friday’s underwhelming Canadian employment data—featuring sluggish job growth and a rising unemployment rate—has reduced expectations for additional rate hikes by the Bank of Canada (BoC). In contrast, markets have scaled back bets on US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, leading to a widening US-Canada yield spread, contributing downward pressure for the USD/CAD pair.Crude Oil prices have also contributed to pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price halted its four-day rally and is trading near $63.00 per barrel at the time of writing. Prices edged lower after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise build in US crude inventories, with stocks rising by 4.29 million barrels last week—marking the largest increase in six weeks and defying expectations of a 2.4 million-barrel drawdown. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
10:02 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 95.49, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 95.41.
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Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 95.49, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 95.41.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 113.49 against the INR in the early European trading hours, also advancing after the GBP/INR pair settled at 113.17 at the previous close. Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee? The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee? India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee? Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee? India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
10:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.2%) in April
Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.2%) in April
10:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in April
Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in April
10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.2%) in April
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.2%) in April
10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in April
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in April
09:55 Forex Today: Central bank speak to garner attention in absence of data releases
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 14:
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Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 14:Major currency pairs stay relatively quiet early Wednesday following a volatile start to the week. Since the economic calendar will not offer any high-impact data releases, investors will focus on comments from central bankers and assess the latest trade talks. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.49% 0.01% 0.56% 0.21% -0.96% -0.25% 0.52% EUR -0.49% -0.35% 0.61% 0.21% -0.83% -0.26% 0.51% GBP -0.01% 0.35% 1.15% 0.56% -0.47% 0.02% 0.86% JPY -0.56% -0.61% -1.15% -0.36% -2.13% -1.65% -0.27% CAD -0.21% -0.21% -0.56% 0.36% -0.91% -0.46% 0.30% AUD 0.96% 0.83% 0.47% 2.13% 0.91% 0.48% 1.31% NZD 0.25% 0.26% -0.02% 1.65% 0.46% -0.48% 0.74% CHF -0.52% -0.51% -0.86% 0.27% -0.30% -1.31% -0.74% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
After outperforming its rivals on the US-China trade deal on Monday, the US Dollar (USD) came under bearish pressure on Tuesday. The data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in April, coming in below the market expectation of 0.3% increase for both. The USD Index fell about 0.8% on the day and erased a majority of Monday's gains. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump called upon the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate again, arguing that there is no inflation.During the Asian trading hours, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced that the Wage Price Index rose 0.9% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter. This print followed the 0.7% increase recorded in the previous quarter and surpassed the market expectation of 0.8%. After rising about 1.5% on Tuesday, AUD/USD holds its ground in the European morning on Wednesday and trades marginally higher on the day above 0.6470. Early Thursday, April employment data from Australia will be watched closely by market participants.EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum and gained nearly 1% on Tuesday. The pair stays calm and moves up and down in a narrow channel at around 1.1200 to begin the European session on Wednesday. GBP/USD seems to have entered a consolidation phase near 1.3300 after rising 1% on Tuesday. USD/JPY reversed its direction following Monday's decisive rally and lost about 0.75% on Tuesday. The pair continues to stretch lower early Wednesday and trades near 147.00.Gold failed to benefit from the renewed USD weakness and registered small gains on Tuesday. XAU/USD stays on the back foot in the European morning and trades below $3,250.USD/CAD closed in negative territory on Tuesday and snapped a four-day winning streak. The pair stabilizes above 1.3900 to begin the European session. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
09:55 EUR/GBP gains traction above 0.8400 after German inflation data
The EUR/GBP cross trades in positive territory near 0.8415, snapping the seven-day losing streak during the early European trading hours on Wednesday.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:34 India WPI Inflation below forecasts (1.76%) in April: Actual (0.85%)
India WPI Inflation below forecasts (1.76%) in April: Actual (0.85%)
09:31 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $953.80 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $957.25.
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $953.80 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $957.25.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $997.58 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, advancing after the XPT/USD pair settled at $993.35 at the previous close.
09:13 BoE’s Mann: UK labor market has been more resilient than expected
“The UK labor market has been more resilient than expected,” Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann said on Wednesday.
“The UK labor market has been more resilient than expected,” Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann said on Wednesday.Additional quotesWorried that household inflation expectations have increased.Need to see loss of pricing power by firms but goods price inflation is going up.There will be lower goods prices in world economy due to trade diversion.Companies will look for chance to rebuild margins.Market reactionGBP/USD holds lower ground near 1.3300 as of writing, down 0.09% on the day.
09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.94 per barrel, down from Tuesday’s close at $63.23.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.94 per barrel, down from Tuesday’s close at $63.23.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $66.01 after its previous daily close at $66.27. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:01 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2.1%) in April
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2.1%) in April
09:01 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.2%) in April
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.2%) in April
09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.4%) in April
Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.4%) in April
09:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (0.5%) in April
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (0.5%) in April
08:40 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish outlook remains in play near 164.50
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 164.40 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid the prospects for further policy normalization by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
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The first upside barrier emerges at 165.00; the first support level to watch is 163.51.The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 164.40 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid the prospects for further policy normalization by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. Technically, the constructive outlook of EUR/JPY remains in place as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 58.30, displaying bullish momentum in the near term. On the bright side, the key resistance level for the cross emerges at 165.00, representing the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and the psychological level. A decisive break above this level could pick up more momentum and aim for 166.00, the round mark and the high of November 7, 2024. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 166.60, the high of October 30, 2024. In the bearish case, the low of May 12 at 163.51 acts as an initial support level for EUR/JPY. A breach of this level could drag the cross toward 161.80, the 100-day EMA. The additional downside filter to watch is the 160.00 psychological mark. EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
08:24 AUD/JPY trades with modest losses above 95.00, remains close to two-month top set on Tuesday
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday, and for now, it seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak to the 95.65 area, or a nearly two-month high touched the previous day.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY retreats from a nearly two-month high set on Tuesday amid notable JPY strength.Bets that the BoJ will hike interest rates again in 2025 continue to act as a tailwind for the JPY. Trade optimism and reduced bets for aggressive RBA rate cuts could limit losses for the cross.The AUD/JPY cross attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday, and for now, it seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak to the 95.65 area, or a nearly two-month high touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 95.15 region, down nearly 0.30% for the day amid a broadly stronger Japanese Yen (JPY).Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated on Tuesday that the central bank will keep raising interest rates if the economy and prices improve as projected. This comes on top of fears of broader, more entrenched price increases in Japan and backs the case for further policy normalization by the BoJ, which acts as a tailwind for the JPY and exerts some pressure on the AUD/JPY cross. The Australian Dollar (AUD), on the other hand, draws support from a hotter-than-expected domestic Wage Price Index. Adding to this, the de-escalation of the US-China trade war tempers bets for more aggressive rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Apart from this, a softer US Dollar (USD) benefits the AUD and holds back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the AUD/JPY cross.The aforementioned fundamental backdrop supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buyers at lower levels, warranting some caution before confirming that spot prices have topped out in the near term. Traders now look forward to the release of the crucial monthly employment report from Australia during the Asian session on Thursday, which should provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/JPY cross. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
08:16 USD/CHF breaks below 0.8400, downside appears limited due to dovish SNB policy outlook
The USD/CHF pair continues to lose ground for the second consecutive day, trading near 0.8390 during Wednesday’s Asian session. Downside risks appear limited, as growing expectations of further monetary easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) weaken the Swiss Franc (CHF).
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Downside risks appear limited, as growing expectations of further monetary easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) weaken the Swiss Franc (CHF).Last week, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel reaffirmed the central bank’s readiness to intervene in the currency market and potentially cut interest rates—even into negative territory—should inflation persistently fall short of its target.Meanwhile, the safe-haven appeal of the Swiss Franc may face headwinds due to easing global trade tensions. Reports suggest the US and China have reached a preliminary agreement to significantly scale back tariffs. Under the proposed deal, US tariffs on Chinese goods would be reduced from 145% to 30%, while China would lower tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. The move is widely viewed as a constructive step toward de-escalating trade friction between the two nations.Adding to the optimism, US President Donald Trump told Fox News that the US is working to broaden access to Chinese markets and described bilateral relations with China as “excellent.” He also expressed openness to direct talks with President Xi Jinping in pursuit of a comprehensive trade agreement.On the other hand, recent weakness in the US Dollar (USD) has contributed to USD/CHF’s volatility. The Greenback came under pressure after US inflation data came in softer than expected. Market focus now turns to key upcoming US data releases, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey, both scheduled for later this week.April’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-over-year, slightly below March’s 2.4% increase and market expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, advanced 2.8% annually, matching both the prior month and consensus estimates. On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI posted a 0.2% gain. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
08:09 China grants first rare earth export permits since adding restrictions last month – Reuters
Citing industry sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reported on Wednesday that China has granted first rare earth export permits since adding restrictions last month.
Citing industry sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reported on Wednesday that China has granted first rare earth export permits since adding restrictions last month.
07:35 EUR/USD strengthens to near 1.1200 as risk appetite returns
The EUR/USD pair gains ground to around 1.1195 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Euro (EUR) after the cooler-than-expected US April inflation data.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD trades in positive territory near 1.1195 in Wednesday’s Asian session.US CPI inflation came in slightly below estimates in April. Traders reduce bets on ECB rate cuts after US-China talks. The EUR/USD pair gains ground to around 1.1195 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Euro (EUR) after the cooler-than-expected US April inflation data. Traders await the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April for fresh impetus, which is due later on Wednesday. Inflation in the United States (US), as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 2.3% YoY in April from 2.4% in March, below the market consensus of 2.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. This figure registered the lowest since February 2021. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% YoY in April, compared to the previous reading and expectation of 2.8%. The US Dollar lost ground in an immediate reaction to the cooler US CPI report. The US and China agreed to reduce tariffs on each other after two days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China cut tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%. Optimism that a tariff deal between the world's two largest economies could cool the trade war has prompted traders to dial back odds of a recession. This, in turn, could provide some support to the Greenback and create a headwind to the major pair. Across the pond, markets reduced bets on European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cuts on Monday amid easing in trade and geopolitical tensions. Money markets have priced in an ECB deposit facility rate of as much as 1.80% by year-end, returning a few bps above levels seen in mid-April before the ECB suggested it was ready to cut rates in response to the potential adverse economic impact of US tariffs. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,873.78 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 8,934.97 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 103,501.30 per tola from INR 104,212.00 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,873.78 10 Grams 88,737.31 Tola 103,501.30 Troy Ounce 276,000.00
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to be pressured by trade optimism
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he does not see tariffs on Chinese imports returning to 145% after the 90-day pause. In a Fox News interview earlier this Wednesday, Trump said that the relationship with China is excellent, adding to the trade optimism and undermining the safe-haven Gold price during the Asian session.
On the geopolitical front, Russia and Ukraine are set for their first high-level face-to-face talks since 2022 in Istanbul this week amid increasing demand for Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. On the US side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg are expected to attend the negotiations.
The Israeli military said it intercepted a hypersonic ballistic missile fired by the Iran-aligned Houthis militia group towards Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv from Yemen on Tuesday evening. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the XAU/USD pair.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged lower to the 2.3% YoY rate in April from 2.4% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, matched consensus estimates and rose 2.8% on a yearly basis in April.
Traders are still pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs by 56 basis points in 2025. This fails to assist the US Dollar to attract any meaningful buyers following Tuesday's pullback from a one-month high and should contribute to limiting deeper losses for the non-yielding yellow metal.
There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Wednesday, leaving the USD at the mercy of scheduled speeches from Fed officials. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment will play a key role in producing short-term trading opportunities around the commodity. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:29 FX option expiries for May 14 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 14 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for May 14 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1050 1b1.1150 917m1.1175 1.6b1.1200 952m1.1390 1.2b1.1400 898mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 145.10 900m 148.50 641mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6475 1.3b0.6500 1.5bUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3860 442m1.4150 554m
07:20 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slides back closer to mid-$31.00s; down nearly 1% for the day
Silver (XAG/USD) extends the previous day's retracement slide from the $33.20-$33.25 resistance zone and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Wednesday.
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The formation of a bullish flag pattern supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying.Silver (XAG/USD) extends the previous day's retracement slide from the $33.20-$33.25 resistance zone and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Wednesday. The white metal drops to a fresh daily low, around the $31.60 area in the last hour, though the mixed technical setup warrants caution before positioning for deeper losses.Against the backdrop of a goodish recovery from the $28.45 area, or the year-to-date trough touched in April, the recent price action along a three-week-old descending channel constitutes the formation of a bullish flag pattern. However, the overnight failed attempt to breakout through the trend-channel resistance makes it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the $33.25 barrier before positioning for any meaningful upside amid slightly negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts.The XAG/USD might then accelerate the positive move towards the $33.70 intermediate hurdle before aiming to reclaim the $34.00 round-figure mark. Some follow-through buying will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move towards the March monthly swing high, around the $34.55-$34.60 region.On the flip side, weakness further below the $32.40 immediate support could make the XAG/USD vulnerable to slide back to sub-$32.00 levels, or the weekly low touched on Monday. This is followed by the $31.70 region, or the monthly low, below which the white metal could aim to challenge the descending channel support, currently pegged around the $31.35 area. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a key trigger for bears and pave the way for deeper near-term losses.Silver 4-hour chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
07:04 GBP/USD maintains position above 1.3300 after strong gains, focus turns to key UK, US data
GBP/USD is trading around 1.3300 during Wednesday’s Asian session, stabilizing after posting over 1% gains in the previous session.
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06:52 Gold price bears flirt with 200-period EMA pivotal support on H4 amid US-China trade optimism
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest uptick and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday.
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Tuesday’s US CPI print reaffirms Fed rate cut bets and keeps the USD bulls on the defensive. Geopolitical risks could limit deeper losses for the XAU/USD pair, warranting caution for bears.Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest uptick and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday. The latest optimism over the de-escalation of a potentially damaging trade war between the US and China – the world's two largest economies – remains supportive of a generally positive tone around the equity markets. This, in turn, undermines demand for traditional safe-haven assets and keeps the precious metal well within striking distance of the weekly low touched on Monday.Meanwhile, the softer-than-expected inflation data from the US released on Tuesday reaffirmed market bets for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025. This led to the overnight US Dollar (USD) pullback from its highest level since April 10, set earlier this week, and could help limit deeper losses for the non-yielding Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling and a convincing break below the $3,200 mark before positioning for any further losses for the XAU/USD pair. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to be pressured by trade optimismUS President Donald Trump said on Monday that he does not see tariffs on Chinese imports returning to 145% after the 90-day pause. In a Fox News interview earlier this Wednesday, Trump said that the relationship with China is excellent, adding to the trade optimism and undermining the safe-haven Gold price during the Asian session. On the geopolitical front, Russia and Ukraine are set for their first high-level face-to-face talks since 2022 in Istanbul this week amid increasing demand for Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. On the US side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg are expected to attend the negotiations.The Israeli military said it intercepted a hypersonic ballistic missile fired by the Iran-aligned Houthis militia group towards Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv from Yemen on Tuesday evening. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the XAU/USD pair. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged lower to the 2.3% YoY rate in April from 2.4% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, matched consensus estimates and rose 2.8% on a yearly basis in April.Traders are still pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs by 56 basis points in 2025. This fails to assist the US Dollar to attract any meaningful buyers following Tuesday's pullback from a one-month high and should contribute to limiting deeper losses for the non-yielding yellow metal. There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Wednesday, leaving the USD at the mercy of scheduled speeches from Fed officials. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment will play a key role in producing short-term trading opportunities around the commodity. Gold price could accelerate the fall once the 200-period EMA on H4 is broken decisivelyFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair has been showing some resilience near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently pegged near the $3,225 region, on the 4-hour chart since the beginning of this week. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started drifting in negative territory, a convincing break below the said support will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. A subsequent fall below the $3,200 round figure will confirm a fresh breakdown and make the Gold price vulnerable to resume its recent corrective slide from the $3,500 psychological mark, or the all-time peak touched in April. The commodity might then accelerate the fall towards testing the next relevant support near the $3,135 area.On the flip side, the overnight swing high, around the $3,265-3,266 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $3,300 mark. Some follow-through buying and a move beyond the weekly high, around the $3,317-3,318 zone, might shift the bias in favor of bullish traders and lift the Gold price to the $3,345-3,347 hurdle en route to the $3,360-3,365 static barrier. A sustained strength beyond the latter will set the stage for a move towards the $3,400 round figure. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
05:54 NZD/USD advances to near 0.5950 as US Dollar weakens on soft inflation data
The NZD/USD pair advanced for the second consecutive session, hovering around 0.5940 during Wednesday’s Asian trading hours. The pair strengthened as the US Dollar (USD) came under pressure following softer-than-expected US inflation figures.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD appreciated as April’s figures mark a new three-year low for annual headline inflation.US President Donald Trump described the relationship with China as excellent.The New Zealand Dollar may continue to benefit as the US and China agreed to significantly reduce tariffs.The NZD/USD pair advanced for the second consecutive session, hovering around 0.5940 during Wednesday’s Asian trading hours. The pair strengthened as the US Dollar (USD) came under pressure following softer-than-expected US inflation figures. Market participants now await the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey, both scheduled for later this week.US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed a 2.3% year-over-year increase in April, slightly below both the 2.4% rise recorded in March and market expectations. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% annually, matching the prior month and consensus estimates. On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI rose by 0.2% in April.US President Donald Trump told Fox News that he is working to expand access to Chinese markets and described US-China relations as "excellent." He also expressed openness to direct talks with President Xi Jinping to pursue a broader trade deal.Commodity-linked currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may continue to benefit as the US and China reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to significantly reduce tariffs. Under the proposed deal, US tariffs on Chinese goods would fall from 145% to 30%, while China would reduce tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%—a move widely seen as a step toward easing trade tensions.New Zealand saw Visitor Arrivals drop by 8.4% year-on-year to 311,800 in March 2025, marking the second straight monthly decline. Meanwhile, Electronic Card spending remained flat at NZD 6.46 billion in April, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Traders are exercising caution ahead of New Zealand’s upcoming food inflation data for April, following a 14-month high recorded in March. New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.04% -0.00% -0.19% -0.07% -0.16% -0.13% -0.09% EUR 0.04% 0.04% -0.18% -0.03% -0.12% -0.11% -0.05% GBP 0.00% -0.04% -0.22% -0.07% -0.16% -0.15% -0.09% JPY 0.19% 0.18% 0.22% 0.12% 0.04% 0.05% 0.09% CAD 0.07% 0.03% 0.07% -0.12% -0.09% -0.06% -0.02% AUD 0.16% 0.12% 0.16% -0.04% 0.09% 0.03% 0.07% NZD 0.13% 0.11% 0.15% -0.05% 0.06% -0.03% 0.04% CHF 0.09% 0.05% 0.09% -0.09% 0.02% -0.07% -0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
05:29 US Dollar Index holds losses around 101.00 as inflation reduces in April
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, remains subdued for a second consecutive day, hovering around 100.90 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The Greenback weakened following softer-than-expected US inflation data.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}US Dollar Index faces challenges following softer-than-expected US inflation data.The Consumer Price Index rose 2.3% YoY in April, slightly below March’s 2.4% reading and market expectations.US President Donald Trump described the relationship with China as excellent.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, remains subdued for a second consecutive day, hovering around 100.90 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The Greenback weakened following softer-than-expected US inflation data. Traders now turn their attention to the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey, both due later this week.According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-over-year in April—slightly below March’s 2.4% reading and market expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 2.8% annually, in line with both the previous figure and forecasts. On a monthly basis, headline and core CPI each rose 0.2%.April’s figures mark a new three-year low for annual headline inflation. However, analysts expect this may be the last firm CPI report for a while, as the Trump administration’s triple-digit tariffs on key trade partners are set to take effect in May.Still, downside pressure on the US Dollar Index may be limited after a breakthrough in US-China trade talks over the weekend in Switzerland. The two sides reached a preliminary agreement to substantially lower tariffs: US tariffs on Chinese goods will drop from 145% to 30%, while China will cut tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. The move is widely seen as a significant step toward easing trade tensions.US President Donald Trump told Fox News he is working to expand access to Chinese markets and described US-China relations as excellent, adding he’s open to direct negotiations with President Xi on a broader trade deal. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% 0.00% -0.15% -0.01% -0.15% -0.08% -0.01% EUR 0.00% 0.00% -0.18% -0.02% -0.14% -0.10% -0.01% GBP -0.00% -0.00% -0.18% -0.01% -0.15% -0.11% -0.01% JPY 0.15% 0.18% 0.18% 0.15% 0.01% 0.05% 0.13% CAD 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% -0.15% -0.14% -0.07% -0.00% AUD 0.15% 0.14% 0.15% -0.01% 0.14% 0.06% 0.13% NZD 0.08% 0.10% 0.11% -0.05% 0.07% -0.06% 0.07% CHF 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% -0.13% 0.00% -0.13% -0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
05:22 USD/INR weakens as tensions between India and Pakistan ease
The Indian Rupee (INR) gathers strength on Wednesday on the back of the US-China trade agreement and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan. Analysts said that any fresh developments on the geopolitical front are likely to significantly influence the INR’s trajectory in the near term.
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Traders brace for the Fedspeak later on Wednesday.The Indian Rupee (INR) gathers strength on Wednesday on the back of the US-China trade agreement and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan. Analysts said that any fresh developments on the geopolitical front are likely to significantly influence the INR’s trajectory in the near term. The renewed Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) inflows into debt instruments and equities contribute to the Indian currency’s upside.Nonetheless, the US Dollar (USD) bids from state-run banks and a rise in Crude oil prices could weigh on the local currency. It’s worth noting that India is the world's third-largest oil consumer, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the INR value. Traders will keep an eye on the speeches from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials later on Wednesday, including Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson and Mary Daly. Indian Rupee gains ground on trade optimism and easing fears of India-Pakistan conflictsIndia's headline inflation, as measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 3.16% YoY in April, the sixth consecutive month of decline. This reading came in lower than the previous reading of 3.34% and below the consensus of 3.27%.The inflation figure might pave the way for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to continue to cut rates, after the RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in his statement after the April meeting that it will shift its stance from neutral to accommodative, aiming to boost the economy through softer interest rates.The ceasefire remained intact in Jammu and Kashmir and across border towns after India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi's stern message to terrorists and Pakistan. Modi said that India will not tolerate any "nuclear blackmail,” adding that operations against Pakistan have only been paused, and the future will depend on their behavior.The US CPI increased by 2.3% YoY in April, compared to a rise of 2.4% in March, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 2.4%. The US core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in April, compared to the previous reading and the estimation of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the CPI and the core CPI rose by 0.2% in April. USD/INR’s outlook remains bearish in the longer termThe Indian Rupee strengthens on the day. The USD/INR pair remains capped under the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart, hinting that the longer-term downtrend for the pair might not be over just yet. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the midline near 45, suggesting that downward momentum could display in the near term.The initial support level for USD/INR is located at 84.61, the low of May 12. If red candlesticks keep stacking up, the pair could revisit 84.12, the low of May 5. The additional downside filter to watch is 83.76, the low of May 2. If bulls push past the 85.00 psychological level, there’s room to run toward 85.60, the 100-day EMA. A decisive break above this level could clear the way for a move back to the 86.00-86.05 zone, which marks both a round figure and the upper boundary of the trend channel. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
05:14 Japanese Yen moves away from one-month low touched against USD on Monday
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the front foot against its American counterpart for the second straight day on Wednesday and reacts little to the mostly in-line Producer Price Index (PPI).
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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida's hawkish comments on Tuesday keep the door open for further policy normalization and continue to act as a tailwind for the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to be undermined by Tuesday's softer US consumer inflation figures, which lifted bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at least two times this year. This is seen as another factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the latest optimism over a US-China tariff truce for 90 days remains supportive of the upbeat market mood. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven JPY. Nevertheless, the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations suggest that the path of least resistance for the lower-yielding JPY is to the upside and support prospects for a further depreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic data from the US, traders will take cues from speeches by influential FOMC members. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment could provide some impetus to the currency pair.Japanese Yen draws some support from the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectationsData released this Wednesday showed that Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in April, and the yearly rate came in at 4%, down from 4.2% in the previous month. The Japanese Yen, however, moves little after the data and draws support from expectations for more rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. In fact, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated on Tuesday that the central bank will keep raising rates if the economy and prices improve as projected. Japan's economic growth is expected to slow to around its potential before resuming moderate growth as overseas economies recover, Uchida added further.On the other hand, traders pared their bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve amid easing recession fears. Investors, however, are still pricing in 56 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, and the bets were reaffirmed by softer US consumer inflation figures released on Tuesday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged lower to the 2.3% YoY rate in April from 2.4% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% on a yearly basis, matching consensus estimates.This keeps the US Dollar depressed below its highest level since April 10 touched earlier this week, and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. However, the US-China trade deal optimism might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven JPY. US President Donald Trump said in a Fox News interview that the relationship with China is excellent. This comes on top of positive news from the US-China tariff negotiations over the weekend, where both countries agreed to pause the trade war for 90 days and bring down reciprocal duties.USD/JPY technical setup backs prospects for the emergence of dip-buyersFrom a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and positive oscillators on the daily chart favor bullish traders. Hence, any subsequent slide below the 147.00 mark might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 146.60-146.55 area, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the strong recovery from the year-to-date low touched in April. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the USD/JPY pair to the 146.00 mark en route to the 145.40 region (38.2% Fibo. level) and the 145.00 psychological mark. This is closely followed by the 144.80-144.75 area, or the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which, if broken decisively, would negate the near-term positive bias.On the flip side, the 147.65 zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the USD/JPY pair could climb to the 148.00 round figure en route to the 148.25-148.30 region and over a one-month peak, around the 148.65 area touched on Monday. Some follow-through buying beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and lift spot prices beyond the 149.00 mark, towards the 149.65-149.70 area and eventually to the 150.00 psychological mark. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:33 Australian Dollar gains ground following Wage Price Index data release
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after registering more than 1.50% gains in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair strengthened as the US Dollar weakened following softer-than-expected US inflation data.
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The AUD/USD pair strengthened as the US Dollar weakened following softer-than-expected US inflation data.Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was sworn in for a second term on Tuesday after a decisive election victory. Key cabinet positions—including treasurer, foreign affairs, defense, and trade—remain unchanged. Albanese is scheduled to attend the inauguration mass of Pope Leo XIV in Rome on Sunday, where he will also meet with leaders such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to discuss trade relations.US President Donald Trump told Fox News that he is working to gain greater access to China, describing the relationship as excellent and expressing willingness to negotiate directly with President Xi on a potential deal.Easing global trade tensions have prompted investors to dial back expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts in Australia. Markets now project the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to reduce the cash rate to approximately 3.1% by year-end, a revision from earlier forecasts of 2.85%. Nevertheless, the RBA is still widely expected to proceed with a 25 basis point cut at its upcoming policy meeting.Australian Dollar receives support as US Dollar struggles following softer inflation dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 100.90 at the time of writing. Traders await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan's latest Consumer Sentiment Survey, which are set to be released later in the trading week.US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-over-year in April, slightly below the 2.4% increase recorded in March and market expectations of 2.4%. Core CPI—which excludes food and energy—also climbed 2.8% annually, matching both the previous figure and forecasts. On a monthly basis, both headline CPI and core CPI rose by 0.2% in April.The US Dollar strengthened following news that the United States and China reached a preliminary agreement to significantly reduce tariffs after productive trade talks over the weekend in Switzerland. Under the deal, US tariffs on Chinese goods will be reduced from 145% to 30%, while China will lower its tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%—a move broadly viewed as a major step toward de-escalating trade tensions.After two days of negotiations aimed at easing trade tensions, both the US and China reported “substantial progress.” China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the talks as “an important first step” toward stabilizing bilateral relations.Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer called the discussions a constructive move toward narrowing the $400 billion trade imbalance. However, Greer warned later that if the agreement falls through, tariffs on Chinese goods could be reinstated.China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined for the third consecutive month in April, falling 0.1% year-on-year, matching both the market forecast and the drop recorded in March, according to data released Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted 2.7% YoY in April, steeper than the 2.5% drop in March and below the market expectation of a 2.6% decline.Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose 2.2% month-on-month to 92.1 in May, recovering from a 6.0% drop in the previous month and marking its third increase this year.Australia’s Ai Group Industry Index showed improvement in April, although it marked the 33rd straight month of contraction—particularly driven by weakness in export-reliant manufacturing. These signs of persistent softness have strengthened market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% later this month.Australian Dollar could target 0.6500 barrier near six-month highsThe AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6470 on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a bullish outlook, with the pair trading above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also surpassed the 50 mark, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.The AUD/USD pair could retest the six-month high of 0.6515, recorded on December 2, 2024. A sustained break above this level may pave the way for a move toward the seven-month high of 0.6687 from November 2024.On the downside, the AUD/USD pair is likely to test the nine-day EMA at 0.6433, followed by the 50-day EMA around 0.6353. A decisive break below these levels could weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum and open the door for a decline toward 0.5914, a level not seen since March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.11% -0.11% -0.26% -0.06% -0.12% -0.13% -0.14% EUR 0.11% 0.00% -0.20% 0.05% -0.01% -0.04% -0.03% GBP 0.11% -0.00% -0.22% 0.05% -0.02% -0.04% -0.03% JPY 0.26% 0.20% 0.22% 0.22% 0.16% 0.14% 0.14% CAD 0.06% -0.05% -0.05% -0.22% -0.07% -0.07% -0.07% AUD 0.12% 0.01% 0.02% -0.16% 0.07% -0.00% -0.01% NZD 0.13% 0.04% 0.04% -0.14% 0.07% 0.00% -0.01% CHF 0.14% 0.03% 0.03% -0.14% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Wage Price Index (QoQ) The Wage Price Index released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is an indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia pays close attention to it when setting interest rates. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Wed May 14, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 0.9% Consensus: 0.8% Previous: 0.7% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
04:31 Australia Investment Lending for Homes: -0.3% (1Q) vs -4.5%
Australia Investment Lending for Homes: -0.3% (1Q) vs -4.5%
04:31 Australia Home Loans fell from previous 2.2% to -2.5% in 1Q
Australia Home Loans fell from previous 2.2% to -2.5% in 1Q
04:30 Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.8%) in 1Q
Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.8%) in 1Q
04:30 Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) above expectations (3.2%) in 1Q: Actual (3.4%)
Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) above expectations (3.2%) in 1Q: Actual (3.4%)
04:24 US Presi. Trump: i couldI see myself dealing with China’s Xi on deal
US President Donald Trump said in a Fox News interview early Wednesday that “I could see myself dealing with China’s President Xi Jinping on deal.”
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US President Donald Trump said in a Fox News interview early Wednesday that “I could see myself dealing with China’s President Xi Jinping on deal.”Additional quotesAttempting to initiate access to China.China relationship is excellent. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
04:16 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1956 vs. 7.1991 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 7.1956 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1991 and 7.1813 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 7.1956 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1991 and 7.1813 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:00 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $3,250 on improved risk sentiment
The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $3,245 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Improved risk appetite in the financial markets due to a tariff deal between the United States (US) and China weighs on the yellow metal, a safe-haven asset.
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Improved risk appetite after the US and China slash tariff rates weighs on the Gold price. Escalating tensions and uncertainty might help limit the Gold’s losses. The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $3,245 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Improved risk appetite in the financial markets due to a tariff deal between the United States (US) and China weighs on the yellow metal, a safe-haven asset. Traders will focus on the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. The US and China, the world’s two largest economies, agreed to reduce tariffs on each other after two days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China cut tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%. These positive developments boost market sentiment and undermine the precious metal. Additionally, easing tensions between India and Pakistan also weighed on the Gold price. The ceasefire remained intact in Jammu and Kashmir and across border towns overnight, following India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi's stern message to terrorists and Pakistan. Modi said on Monday that India will not tolerate any "nuclear blackmail.” He added that operations against Pakistan have only been paused, and the future will depend on their behavior."Gold and silver showed a heavy selloff at the start of the new week amid a trade deal between the US and China in Switzerland. The dollar index and the US bond yields jumped after the announcement of trade deals. The Indo-Pak ceasefire over the weekend also eases safe-haven buying for precious metals," Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research observed.Nonetheless, any signs of escalation between India and Pakistan, along with the economic uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
03:14 WTI extends the rally above $63.00 on easing trade tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $63.25 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price extends its upside amid easing trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, which prompt traders to dial back odds of a recession.
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The US and China slash tariff rates by 115%, supporting the WTI price. Crude oil stockpiles in the US rose by 4.287 million barrels last week, according to the API. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $63.25 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price extends its upside amid easing trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, which prompt traders to dial back odds of a recession. The US and China agreed over the weekend in Switzerland to slash tariff rates by 115%. US President Donald Trump agreed to cut extra tariffs imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145%, and Chinese duties on US imports will be reduced to 10% from 125%. The lower tariff rate is effective for 90 days. A temporary cut in US-China tariffs, the world’s two largest petroleum consumers, could boost the WTI price in the near term. The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending May 9 climbed by 4.287 million barrels, compared to a fall of 4.49 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would drop by 2.4 million barrels. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are set to boost oil exports in May and June, which might cap the upside for the black gold. OPEC has raised oil output by more than previously expected since April, with its May output likely to increase by 411,000 barrels per day. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:50 Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in April
Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in April
02:50 Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (4%) in April
Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (4%) in April
02:16 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers around $33.00 amid weak US Dollar
Silver price edged up 0.95% on Tuesday as the Greenback finished the session below the 101.00 figure, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies.
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At the time of writing, as the Asian session begins, XAG/USD trades at $32.92, registering modest gains near the $33.00 figure.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe Silver technical outlook suggests that further consolidation lies ahead, with stir resistance found at the psychological $33.00 figure. However, momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), despite remaining bullish, turned flattish as indecision sinks on traders.For a bullish resumption, buyers need to reclaim $33.00 and clear the latest swing high reached on May 7 at $33.25. Once surpassed, $33.50 emerges as next resistance, followed by the April 28 high of $33.68. A breach of the latter will expose $34.00.Conversely, if XAG/USD drifts below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $32.75, a move towards the 100-day SMA at $31.89 is likely. On further weakness, the bulls' following line of defense would be the 200-day SMA at $31.28.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
02:06 USD/CAD softens below 1.3950 as US inflation slowed more than expected in April
The USD/CAD pair weakens to near 1.3925 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after inflation data came in below market expectations.
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US CPI inflation declined to 2.3% in April, cooler than expected.Optimism from US-China trade deals might help limit the pair’s losses. The USD/CAD pair weakens to near 1.3925 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after inflation data came in below market expectations.Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.3% on a yearly basis in April, compared to a rise of 2.4% in March. This reading came in below the market expectation of 2.4%. The Greenback has softened in an immediate reaction to the cooler-than-expected inflation report. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% on a yearly basis in April, compared to the previous reading and the estimation of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the CPI and the core CPI both rose by 0.2% in April.However, optimism that a tariff deal between the United States (US) and China could cool the trade war between the world's two largest economies, prompting traders to dial back odds of a recession. This, in turn, provides some support to the USD in the near term. On the Loonie front, extended gains in Crude Oil prices might lift the commodity-linked CAD and cap the upside for the pair. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:00 South Korea Unemployment Rate fell from previous 2.9% to 2.7% in April
South Korea Unemployment Rate fell from previous 2.9% to 2.7% in April
01:54 EUR/USD rebounds on Tuesday as Greenback bids wither
EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, clawing back most of the week’s starting losses. The pair is now testing back into the 1.1200 handle, thanks to a general broad-market weakening in the Greenback than any particular bullish momentum bootstrapping Euro market flows.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD inched back toward the 1.1200 handle amid general USD weakness on Tuesday.Market sentiment is climbing in the face of possible trade deals that will push the Trump administration away from its own tariff policies.EU GDP growth, US PPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment are the week’s key remaining datapoints.EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, clawing back most of the week’s starting losses. The pair is now testing back into the 1.1200 handle, thanks to a general broad-market weakening in the Greenback than any particular bullish momentum bootstrapping Euro market flows.Market response to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was largely subdued on Tuesday. Investors remain optimistic that ongoing trade deal negotiations between the Trump administration and various parties will sustain positive sentiment, although all trade tariff concessions offered by the Trump team have been strictly temporary.In the US, CPI inflation reduced slightly in April, reaching a new three-year low for annualized headline inflation. Nonetheless, the Trump administration’s approach of enforcing triple-digit tariffs on key trading partners is anticipated to have repercussions starting in May, leading market experts to expect this will be the last strong CPI report for some time.German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) are due during Wednesday’s European market session, but the non-preliminary figures are unlikely to generate much interest. Pan-European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the first quarter are also due on Thursday, but median market forecasts are expecting the figures to print similar to the previous quarter.On the US side, inflation figures for the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the latest Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan are scheduled for release in the latter part of the trading week. The US PPI inflation data will be published on Thursday, followed by important consumer sentiment figures on Friday.EUR/USD price forecastMarkets pushed hard to muscle EUR/USD back over the 1.1200 handle on Tuesday, falling just shy of the key technical level. However, despite limited upside, the Fiber is back above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1070. Bullish momentum remains absent from the daily candlesticks, but technical oscillators are rolling over sharply from oversold territory, hinting at the potential for a bullish extension.EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 0% in April from previous -0.8%
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 0% in April from previous -0.8%
01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous -1.6% to -0.3% in April
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous -1.6% to -0.3% in April
01:32 GBP/USD enters a choppy phase as market sentiment churns
GBP/USD caught a bid on Tuesday, rebounding above the 1.3300 handle and reversing early week losses as global markets tilt and twist around general Greenback flows based on broad-market sentiment.
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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:00 AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Pair Holds Bullish Tone Ahead of Asian Session
The AUD/NZD pair is trading around the 1.09 zone ahead of the Asian session on Tuesday, reflecting a slight bullish tone with minor gains on the day.
AUD/NZD trades near the 1.09 zone, maintaining a modest bullish tone.Momentum remains mixed, with short-term averages supporting the upside.Key support sits near 1.0880, with resistance around 1.0920 and 1.0950.The AUD/NZD pair is trading around the 1.09 zone ahead of the Asian session on Tuesday, reflecting a slight bullish tone with minor gains on the day. The pair remains within the mid-range of its recent fluctuation, signaling a stable but cautious upward bias as traders assess broader market dynamics. Key technical indicators suggest a mixed picture, with shorter-term signals supporting the current trend while longer-term averages hint at potential headwinds.From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 60s, reflecting neutral conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) supports ongoing buy momentum. The Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) also remains in the 60s, adding to the stable but cautiously positive outlook. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (14) in the 20s signals a lack of clear directional strength, aligning with the neutral reading of the Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14), which rests in the 100s.Short-term moving averages, including the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), align with the broader buy signals, further reinforcing the pair's current bullish stance. However, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs suggest a more cautious long-term outlook, reflecting underlying selling pressure that could limit further upside.Immediate support levels are identified near 1.0881, followed by 1.0876 and 1.0868. On the upside, resistance is likely around 1.0924, with stronger barriers at 1.0947 and 1.0974, potentially capping gains in the near term.Daily Chart
00:45 Mexican Peso hits YTD high as US CPI miss, tariff truce sink USD
The Mexican Peso (MXN) rallied to a new year-to-date (YTD) high against the US Dollar (USD) after a softer-than-expected inflation report in the United States (US) weighed on the Greenback. Also, an improvement in risk appetite boosted the emerging market (EM) currency’s appeal.
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Also, an improvement in risk appetite boosted the emerging market (EM) currency’s appeal. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.41, down more than 1%.Wall Street ended Tuesday’s session in the green, erasing the stock market losses for the year as market participants assessed US President Donald Trump's decision to dial back tariffs applied to Chinese products. The 90-day truce and the reduction of tariffs agreed between the US and China improved risk appetite, as portrayed by the S&P 500 climbing over 1%.Consequently, risk-sensitive currencies in the FX space, such as the Peso, extended their gains as the USD/MXN cleared the crucial 19.50 psychological support level before sliding towards the 19.00 figure.Mexican Peso capitalizes on US Dollar weakness after US CPI missIn the US, April’s headline inflation on a year-over-year basis was in line with forecasts. The so-called core, which excludes volatile items, was unchanged.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso advances as US Dollar fallsTraders are awaiting Banxico’s monetary policy decision on May 15, in which the Mexican institution is expected to reduce rates for the seventh consecutive meeting.Banco de México -also known as Banxico- is expected to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), according to a poll revealed by Reuters. This would be the seventh straight meeting that Banxico cut rates.Recently, Mexico’s Economy Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, announced that the USMCA revision will commence in the second half of 2025.On Monday, Mexico’s Industrial Production slowed in March, as revealed by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI). This, along with GDP figures that barely triggered a technical recession, would likely undermine the Mexican currency.Recent data revealed that Mexico’s economy is undergoing a deceleration while inflation Mexico’s inflation data for April, which expanded above expectations in both headline and core figures, would not prevent Banxico from prolonging its easing cycle.Worth noting that investors reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might only cut rates twice instead of thrice, as revealed by data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The December 2025 fed funds rates futures contract shows that market players expect 57 basis points of easing.Therefore, monetary policy divergence between the Fed and Banxico might add pressure on the Peso and push USD/MXN exchange rate higher.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso advances as USD/MXN tumbles below 20-day SMAThe USD/MXN has fallen to a new year-to-date (YTD) low of 19.41, with the pair remaining bearish-biased after achieving a series of successive lower highs and lower lows. Additionally, prices are below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.58. A daily close below 19.50 may exacerbate a test of the 19.00 figure. On further weakness, the next target would be the August 19, 2024 swing low of 18.59.Conversely, if USD/MXN climbed past the 19.50 area and reached a three-day high of 19.66, past the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before retreating somewhat. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
00:30 NZD/USD rallies as Dollar Eases on Trade Uncertainty and CPI Miss
NZD/USD trades around the 0.5900 level during the North American session on Tuesday, benefiting from a softer US Dollar (USD) and improving risk sentiment. US President Donald Trump dominated headlines, reiterating his aggressive stance on trade and investment policies.
The pair trades around 0.5900, gaining over 1.5% on the day.Softer US CPI and mixed Fed expectations keep the USD under pressure.New Zealand Dollar benefits from risk sentiment, testing key resistance levels.NZD/USD trades around the 0.5900 level during the North American session on Tuesday, benefiting from a softer US Dollar (USD) and improving risk sentiment. US President Donald Trump dominated headlines, reiterating his aggressive stance on trade and investment policies. Trump’s remarks included calls for “investment agreements” with major corporations, pushing for economic policies that aim to strengthen the US economy but add to market uncertainty.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, corrected to near 101.50, reflecting broader dollar weakness after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April came in below expectations. The headline inflation rate dropped to 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.4% in March, as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This reading failed to meet the market consensus of 2.4%, raising doubts about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to maintain its current monetary policy stance.Additionally, Trump’s comments about potentially reducing tariffs on Chinese goods and easing investment restrictions have contributed to a more favorable risk environment, supporting commodity-linked currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). However, Fitch Ratings noted that the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports remains above 40%, despite recent cuts.Technical AnalysisNZD/USD is showing bullish signals, trading around 0.5900, up approximately 1.5% on the day. The pair sits near the top of its daily range (0.5847 – 0.5942). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, indicating neutral conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals sell momentum. Momentum (10) is around 0, suggesting buy conditions, as do the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Simple Moving Average (SMA), both hovering around 1. The Commodity Channel Index (20) and Awesome Oscillator are both around 0, signaling neutral conditions.Despite the 20-day SMA signaling a potential sell, longer-term SMAs (100-day and 200-day) favor a continued bullish outlook. Immediate support levels are found around 0.5931, 0.5925, and 0.5909, while resistance lies around 0.5944 and 0.5947. A clear break above 0.5947 could open the door for a move towards the psychological 0.6000 level, while a drop below 0.5900 may expose the pair to further downside risks.Daily Chart
00:00 NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair Steadies with Bullish Tone Ahead of Asian Session
The NZD/JPY pair has seen a strong upside push, trading near the 87.50 zone with around 0.80% gains ahead of the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair is positioned mid-range within its recent fluctuation, reflecting a steady bullish tone as traders assess broader risk sentiment.
NZD/JPY trades near the 87.50 zone, maintaining a bullish tone.Momentum remains positive, supported by short-term averages.Key support sits around 86.90, with resistance near 87.95.The NZD/JPY pair has seen a strong upside push, trading near the 87.50 zone with around 0.80% gains ahead of the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair is positioned mid-range within its recent fluctuation, reflecting a steady bullish tone as traders assess broader risk sentiment. Key technical indicators are signaling mixed but generally positive momentum, adding to the overall buy sentiment.Technically, the pair shows a bullish outlook, supported by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which confirms upward momentum, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering in the 60s, reflecting neutral but slightly supportive conditions. Meanwhile, the Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) remains in the 80s, also hinting at neutral bias, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) around the 190s and the Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) in the 50s add further stability to the pair's stance.In terms of moving averages, the shorter-term 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) both align with the broader buy signal, reinforcing the positive tone seen in the 20-day and 100-day SMAs. However, the longer-term 200-day SMA presents a contrasting signal, suggesting caution over the medium term.Immediate support is identified around 86.90, followed by deeper levels at 86.23 and 86.15. On the upside, resistance is likely near 87.64, with a stronger barrier around 87.96, which could limit further gains in the near term.Daily Chart
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