Forex News Timeline

21:25 NZD/USD holds firm near recent highs as China data, risk-on mood support Kiwi
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, bouncing back from Friday’s dip as broad US Dollar weakness and easing geopolitical jitters lift risk appetite.

The New Zealand Dollar extends gains against the US Dollar, rising about 1% on the day.Immediate resistance at 0.6080; sustained break could pave the way for a test of the psychological 0.6200 mark.RSI remains comfortably above the neutral level, and the MACD stays positive, both of which hint at room for further gains.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, bouncing back from Friday’s dip as broad US Dollar weakness and easing geopolitical jitters lift risk appetite. Traders trimmed safe-haven bets amid growing signs that the Israel-Iran tensions may not spiral into a wider conflict, although both sides continue to signal readiness for retaliation, keeping markets somewhat on edge.The NZD/USD pair is holding close to Friday’s high, up roughly 1% on the day, and was last seen trading around 0.6072 during the American session. The Kiwi also draws support from stronger-than-expected Chinese Retail Sales data for May, which has brightened the demand outlook given China’s position as New Zealand’s largest export market.From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD maintains a constructive tone. A broad look at the daily chart reveals a well-supported uptrend emerging since mid-April, with the pair consistently printing higher lows and higher highs. The short-term moving averages confirm this bullish undertone, the 21-day EMA sits at 0.6002, while the 50-day EMA is catching up around 0.5936. Price action has repeatedly found buyers near these dynamic supports, suggesting dip-buying remains the dominant play for now.Notably, the pair has formed what appears to be a bullish flag breakout around late May, which has since resolved to the upside, lending credence to a continuation scenario toward the 0.6200 region as the next target.Momentum signals further endorse the bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers just under the 60 mark, signaling healthy upside momentum without yet flashing overbought conditions. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory, with its signal line comfortably above zero, indicating that bullish momentum could persist in the near term.On the topside, immediate short-term resistance is marked at 0.6080 — a level that has capped advances in recent sessions. A clear break above this barrier could pave the way for a test of the more significant ceiling at 0.6200. A sustained daily close beyond that could open the door for a further rally toward the 0.6300 area.On the downside, initial support rests at the 21-day EMA, near 0.6002, with stronger backing at the 50-day EMA around 0.5936. A decisive drop below these levels would undermine the near-term bullish structure and could cause the pair to slip back toward the lower boundary of the flag pattern near 0.5850.Overall, as long as NZD/USD holds above the 0.6000 mark, the broader bias remains to buy on dips, but traders will be eyeing a firm break above 0.6080 to confirm fresh bullish momentum.

21:08 Gold sinks below $3,400 despite ongoing Middle East tensions
Gold price tumbled below $3,400 during the North American session, down over 1% despite tensions in the Middle East remaining high as the Israel-Iran conflict escalates. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,399 after reaching an eight-week peak of $3,452.

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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,399 after reaching an eight-week peak of $3,452.On Friday, Israel attacked Iran’s military and nuclear facilities and targeted major officials after arguing that Tehran could produce nuclear bombs within days – an argument in opposition to US intelligence. Talks between the United States (US) and Iran have halted due to Israel launching the war.In breaking news, Gold rallied sharply. Nevertheless, Bullion has retreated as Iran signaled that it's ready to end hostilities and resume talks about its nuclear program – according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) – which has improved risk appetite. However, some Iranian officials have denied that report.Major central banks are expected to deliver their latest monetary policy decisions. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to hold rates steady. Traders are also eyeing the decisions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE).Ahead in the week, following the Fed’s decision, the US docket will feature the release of Retail Sales, housing, and business activity data revealed by the Fed's regional banks.Daily digest market movers: Gold retreats, but rising geopolitical risks loomDespite retreating, Gold is expected to edge higher as major central banks, such as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), are likely to continue their buying spree.The latest inflation reports in the US warrant further easing by the Fed. Any dovish hints by the US central bank could boost Gold prospects as the non-yielding metal fares well in lower interest rate environments.Geopolitical risks would keep Bullion prices higher. The lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine talks and the Middle East conflict broadening to include Iran would keep the yellow metal underpinned by risk aversion.US Treasury yields are recovering, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising over three and a half basis points (bps) to 4.446%. US real yields followed suit, edging up almost four bps to 2.166%, capping Bullion’s advance.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Dollar against a basket of peers, is down 0.16% at 97.98, close to hitting a multi-year low of 97.60.Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 46 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Source: Prime Market TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price consolidates near $3,400 ahead of FOMC meetingGold price uptrend remains in place even though XAU/USD fell below $3,400. Price action indicates that the precious metal is maintaining its higher high and higher lows market structure, confirming the bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, even though buyers are losing some steam, as the RSI continues to aim downward toward its neutral line.If XAU/USD closes daily below $3,400, anticipate a pullback toward the $3,350 area. A breach of this level would expose the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,281, followed by the April 3 high-turned-support at $3,167.On the side, if Gold stays above $3,400, look for a test of $3,450, as it clears the path to challenge the record high of $3,500 in the near term. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

21:00 Silver stalls as markets weigh Israel–Iran tensions and the US Dollar
Silver prices are stalling above $36.00 on Monday, with bullish momentum taking a breather after a sharp multi-week rally.

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At the time of writing, XAG/USD remains up more than 10% for the month, although the metal now appears to be consolidating as it searches for a fresh directional catalyst.The US Dollar has lost ground despite the geopolitical backdrop, with its traditional safe-haven status coming under pressure amid political instability and uncertainty over trade policy. A softer USD has helped keep Silver supported near $36.38, following a modest 0.2% gain from Friday. The conflict between Israel and Iran, which is on its fourth day, has triggered waves of safe-haven demand. However, signs of a possible diplomatic opening have started to emerge. Reuters and The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran sent messages via Arab intermediaries indicating a willingness to resume nuclear talks with the United States. This has introduced some hope for de-escalation, limiting further upside in precious metals. However, some Iranian officials have denied these reports.Additionally, growing speculation around a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut later this year, particularly ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, further enhanced Silver’s appeal as a non-yielding hedge asset, helping it hold elevated levels despite fluctuating risk sentiment tied to the Middle East conflict.Silver technical analysis: XAG/USD holds firm above $36.00Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $36.38 on Monday, holding firm after a strong rally through June. Last week’s breakout cleared long-term resistance at the October 2012 high of $35.92, which now acts as immediate support. Price action is showing signs of consolidation below the year-to-date high of $36.89, posted last Monday. Silver (XAG/USD) daily chartThe daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains elevated at 68, suggesting bullish momentum is still in play but nearing overbought territory. A sustained break above $36.89 could pave the way for a move toward long-term resistance at $37.49. Conversely, a drop below $35.92 would expose downside risks, with the next key support level seen at $34.79 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $33.68, which is closely aligned with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

20:29 Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounds on hope for easing Middle East tensions
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) found firmer footing on Monday, kicking off the new trading week on a high note and paring away most of the late-week losses that pushed indexes into the red last Friday.

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Israel launched strikes against Iranian targets under the auspices of denying Iran access to nuclear weapons. Israel is one of only four countries to not sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and is also not a party to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.Despite Israel’s strikes quickly spiraling out into barrages of missile launches between Iran and Israel that continued through the weekend and into Monday, investors are still banking on a potential ceasefire, or at least a cooling of constantly rising Middle East tensions. Equities rallied on Monday following headlines from the Wall Street Journal that Iran was “open” to the idea of engaging in peace talks with Israel. However, the Iranian government, through the Qatari state-controlled media outlet Al Jazeera, denied the reports as false. Undeterred, traders are hedging their bets that a resolution will be found, rather than continuing to boil over into a widespread conflict.Aggregated consumer sentiment figures rose for the first time in almost seven months last week, adding further pressure on the long side. Rebounding consumer sentiment comes at a time when Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are still locked in “wait and see” mode on possible economic fallout from the Trump administration’s whiplash trade “policies”, which primarily consist of threatening and then canceling widespread import taxes.Fed on deck, another rate hold expectedThe Fed is poised to make another interest rate call this week; the central bank is broadly expected to stand pat on interest rates once again, a move that will likely draw further ire from President Donald Trump. Trump has expressed frustration at multiple stages at the Fed’s unwillingness to ease interest rates as he scrambles to find a way to make federal debt more manageable; Trump’s bespoke “Big Beautiful Budget Bill” is expected to add trillions to the federal deficit over the next decade, despite campaigning on a platform of eliminating the federal debt overhang “within months” of taking office.According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, interest rate traders are currently pricing in 70% odds of at least a quarter-point rate cut in September. A follow-up rate trim is expected in either October or December, with odds flipping between the two on a day-by-day basis.Read more stock news: IBM stock leads Dow Jones higherDow Jones price forecastMonday’s bullish push has pared back some of last week’s late losses, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average back above 42,500. However, the major equity index remains embroiled in a consolidation zone that has plagued the Dow since mid-May.The Dow Jones found fresh highs north of the 43,000 major price handle last week before Middle East headlines knocked investor sentiment lower, taking DJIA bids with it. The Dow still has a major technical floor priced in from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,800, and the 50-day EMA is in the process of confirming a bullish cross of the long-run moving average.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

20:09 USD/JPY steady as traders eye BoJ interest rate decision
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is treading water against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as traders sit on the sidelines ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy announcement, scheduled for Tuesday.

20:05 United States 20-Year Bond Auction: 4.942% vs previous 5.047%
United States 20-Year Bond Auction: 4.942% vs previous 5.047%

19:16 AUD/USD hits fresh YTD high on hopes of Israel-Iran de-escalation
The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, buoyed by improved risk sentiment amid easing geopolitical tensions.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar hits a fresh YTD high as the US Dollar (USD) extends its decline.AUD/USD breaks above 0.6500, as Fibonacci resistance firms at 0.6550.Chinese Retail Sales and a potential de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict support gains, but upside risks remain.The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, buoyed by improved risk sentiment amid easing geopolitical tensions. Reports from The Wall Street Journal indicate that Iran is signaling openness to negotiations with the United States (US), prompting optimism about a potential de-escalation in the recent Israel-Iran tensions. Diplomatic efforts are gaining momentum as international stakeholders, including the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Nations, continue to urge restraint and dialogue to prevent further escalation.Additionally, economic data from China released early in the Asian trading session provided mixed signals but overall helped stabilize market sentiment. While China's Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment figures for May fell short of expectations, posting annual declines, robust Retail Sales data mitigated concerns about broader economic weakness. Given that China is Australia's largest trading partner, shifts in Chinese economic activity have a direct impact on Australian economic prospects.Further supporting the AUD/USD pair was notable weakness in the US Dollar following a disappointing Empire State Manufacturing Index report. The June reading came in at -16.0, markedly below market expectations of -5.5, and representing its weakest performance since March. The significant miss underscores mounting concerns about contraction within the US manufacturing sector and adds uncertainty to the outlook for US economic momentum, placing downward pressure on the USD.AUD/USD technical analysis signals rising bullish momentumThe daily chart shows how price action has been fluctuating within a rising wedge pattern that started forming in mid-May. This pattern has been providing strong levels of support and resistance. Recently, after rising above 0.6500, AUD/USD has continued to gain, and prices are now testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is around 0.6550, from the move between September and January. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 59 and trending upward, indicating an increase in bullish momentum, although it has not yet reached overbought conditions. AUD/USD daily chartIf the price fails to break higher, the wedge could lead to a downward resolution, targeting support at the starting point of the upper boundary of the wedge, which is currently at 0.6516. Below that is the 0.6500 psychological level, a break of which could trigger a deeper pullback to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6433.On the other hand, if there is a breakout above the wedge, it could pave the way for a move toward the 0.6600 psychological level and toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 0.6699. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

19:00 Trump urges Iran to negotiate, floats G7 shake-up
US President Donald Trump said that "Iran is not winning this way," adding that they should talk "before it's too late." He said that Iranians want to talk about a de-escalation. He also delivered some trade comments focused on Canada.

18:24 GBP/USD rebounds above 1.36 as Israel-Iran conflict deepens, Dollar weakens on risk shift
The GBP/USD surged during the North American session, rising back above the 1.36 figure as hostilities within the Israel-Iran conflict escalated over the weekend and continued into the new week. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3600, gaining 0.27%.

17:50 EUR/USD extends gains as DXY slides to near three-year low, Empire State Index slumps
The Euro (EUR) is climbing against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week, rebounding from Friday’s risk-off dip triggered by hostilities between Israel and Iran.

17:23 Oil Price Forecast: WTI eases as markets eye Israel-Iran conflict, hopes for de-escalation
WTI Oil prices are easing on Monday, retracing part of Friday’s nearly 6% surge after slipping from the key $70 level, now holding as resistance.

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The Israel-Iran conflict places the Strait of Hormuz at risk, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions.WTI breaks $70.00 support level as Iran seeks assurances of US non-intervention before proceeding with nuclear talks.WTI Oil prices are easing on Monday, retracing part of Friday’s nearly 6% surge after slipping from the key $70 level, now holding as resistance. Traders remain on edge over escalating Israel–Iran tensions, most recently encapsulated by US President Donald Trump’s comments outside the White House on Monday. According to Reuters, Trump said that he “hopes Israel and Iran can broker a deal,” yet conceded that “sometimes they have to fight it out.” Such mixed signals of potential de-escalation alongside outright conflict keep the crude risk premium elevated.Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Iran has used intermediaries in Arab capitals to convey messages that it seeks to avoid direct US military involvement while negotiating a pause or de-escalation. An Arab official said that “The Iranians know the US is supporting Israel in its defense, and they are sure the U.S. is supporting Israel logistically,” But they want guarantees the US won’t join the attacks.”In response, Oil has moved below $70.00, which now provides resistance for the near-term move.However, if there is no deal and the conflict persists, additional risks remain, primarily those associated with the Strait of Hormuz. As illustrated in the chart below, this is a critical chokepoint through which about 18–19 million barrels per day, or roughly 20% of global oil consumption, passes.The Strait of Hormuz is a slim waterway wedged between Iran’s southern coast and Oman’s Musandam peninsula, serving as the lone sea exit for Persian Gulf oilfields into the Arabian Sea. Because it narrows to barely 20–30 miles across with only two designated tanker lanes, and because there is no fully equivalent shipping alternative, any military flare-up or threat of closure there immediately chokes off a fifth of the world’s oil trade. That instant squeeze on supply drives up tanker rates and insurance premiums and, in turn, pushes benchmarks like WTI sharply higher. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia. As shown in the chart below, published by the US Energy Information Administration, approximately 20.9 million barrels per day, roughly 20% of global petroleum-liquids consumption and over 25% of seaborne-traded crude, was shipped through this corridor in 2023.
Because there is no fully equivalent shipping alternative and only limited bypass capacity via pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), any military flare-up, blockade, or threat of closure instantly tightens global supply, pushes tanker freight and insurance rates higher, and can spark a rapid surge in WTI prices.

17:03 Iran wants to de-escalate hostilities with Israel – WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Iran seeks talks with the United States (USD) and Israel and sends messages via Arab intermediaries to end hostilities, per Reuters.

16:08 Indian Rupee firms up as trade data, softer Oil prices offset geopolitical jitters
The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, halting a two-day losing streak as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slips lower and fresh trade data boosts sentiment.

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A narrower trade gap has offered the Rupee some support, helping it recover alongside a softer Greenback and steady risk appetite in global markets.The USD/INR pair extends its intraday decline to trade around 86.07 ahead of the American session, slipping nearly 0.25% from the day’s high of 86.36. A weaker Greenback, improved domestic trade data, and softer global crude oil prices following Friday’s rally are lending support to the Rupee, although traders remain cautious ahead of key US economic releases this week.While the ongoing Iran–Israel conflict has so far had limited direct impact on India, policymakers remain vigilant to any potential fallout, given the region’s importance for India’s energy security. New Delhi has maintained a neutral diplomatic stance, urging de-escalation while actively monitoring supply routes to ensure adequate Crude reserves. This measured approach, along with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) readiness to curb excess currency volatility, has helped cushion the Rupee from sharper swings, although a sudden flare-up could still push Oil prices higher and rekindle inflationary pressure.
Market Movers: Rupee Steadies on Data; Fed and Middle East Tensions Keep Traders AlertIndia’s trade deficit stood at $21.88 billion in May 2025, little changed from $23.8 billion a year ago, highlighting steady trade flows compared to fluctuations seen in other Asian economies. Imports dipped by 1.7% to $60.61 billion, helped by softer energy prices, while exports slipped 2.2% to $38.73 billion. Notably, shipments to the United States rose to $17.25 billion since April, up from $14.17 billion a year earlier, suggesting that recent US tariff moves have had a limited impact on India’s trade.India’s wholesale price inflation cooled to 0.39% in May 2025, marking its lowest level since March 2024 and coming in below market expectations for a slight decline to 0.80%. Softer food prices, especially a sharp drop in vegetable costs, helped ease headline inflation. Manufacturing price growth also slowed, reflecting milder cost increases for items like paper, food products, and plastics. Meanwhile, fuel and power prices continued to fall, led by lower petrol and diesel rates. On a monthly basis, wholesale prices dipped slightly by 0.06%, extending April’s modest decline.The Reserve Bank of India has signalled its willingness to smooth out excessive Rupee volatility through intervention if required. This backstop continues to support the currency, even as traders keep an eye on global risk trends.India’s benchmark indices also rebounded on Monday, breaking a two-day losing streak. The NSE Nifty 50 jumped 227.90 points, or 0.92%, to close at 24,946.50, while the BSE Sensex added 677.55 points, or 0.84%, finishing at 81,796.15.Safe-haven flows supported the US Dollar as tensions between Israel and Iran intensified, raising concerns over potential disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. While Crude prices ticked higher on geopolitical worries, the US Dollar’s near-term strength was balanced by uncertainty around US trade policy and upcoming central bank meetings.May’s Consumer Price Index showed a modest 0.1% increase MoM and a 2.4% rise YoY, a slightly softer outcome than forecasts and reflecting muted underlying price pressure despite tariffs. This reading reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would maintain its policy rate at the June meeting rather than move immediately toward easing.Traders are turning their attention to the Fed’s midweek meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady. Market players will parse the updated economic projections and Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks for hints on when rate cuts might begin.
Technical analysis: USD/INR tests triangle breakout, but momentum fades
The USD/INR pair has recently broken out of a multi-week symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential shift in short-term bias. However, after reaching near 86.50, prices are struggling to sustain momentum above the upper trendline. The pair is currently hovering near 86.07, modestly above the 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 85.97, suggesting that buyers still have a slight advantage as long as prices hold above this moving average support.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 59, indicating mild bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory. A sustained move above the recent high near 86.50 could confirm a stronger bullish breakout, potentially exposing the psychological 87.00 level. On the flip side, a drop back below the EMA and a retest of the former triangle resistance-turned-support near 85.90–85.80 could attract fresh selling, dragging the pair toward the lower ascending trendline near 85.50. Economic Indicator WPI Inflation The WPI Inflation released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry is a measure of price movements similar to the Consumer Price Indices (CPI). Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Rupee, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Mon Jun 16, 2025 06:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 0.39% Consensus: 0.8% Previous: 0.85% Source: Office of the Economic Adviser of India

16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $687.3B vs $678.7B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $687.3B vs $678.7B

15:55 Israel PM Netanyahu: We are telling citizens of Tehran to evacuate
Israel's Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the Israeli air force is in control of the skies over Tehran, per Reuters.

Israel's Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the Israeli air force is in control of the skies over Tehran, per Reuters. "We are on our way to achieve our two main objectives, eliminating the nuclear threat and eliminating the missile threat," Netanyahu noted. "We are telling the citizens of Tehran to evacuate and we are taking action. We are on the path to victory," he added.Market reactionThese comments don't seem to be having a significant impact on risk mood. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.65% and 0.85%, while the US Dollar (USD) Index was losing 0.15% at 97.98.

15:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -16 below forecasts (-5.5) in June
United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -16 below forecasts (-5.5) in June

15:24 USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range between 7.1770 and 7.1970 – UOB Group
USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1770 and 7.1970. In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1770 and 7.1970. In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD has likely moved into a range trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'trade in a range between 7.1700 and 7.1950' last Friday. USD subsequently traded in a narrower range than expected (7.1713/7.1900). The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect range trading today, most likely between 7.1770 and 7.1970."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Monday (09 Jun, spot at 7.1870), we highlighted that the recent 'mild downward momentum has eased, and USD has likely moved back into a range trading phase, probably between 7.1620 and 7.2200.' Since then, USD has traded within the range, and our view remains unchanged for now."

15:21 USD/JPY can potentially test 145.00 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could potentially test 145.00 against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major resistance at 145.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, USD is likely to trade in a range between 143.00 and 145.50, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) could potentially test 145.00 against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major resistance at 145.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, USD is likely to trade in a range between 143.00 and 145.50, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD is likely to trade in a range24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for 'further decline in USD' last Friday was incorrect. Instead of declining further, USD rebounded strongly to 144.48. The strong rebound has gathered momentum, and USD could potentially test 145.00 today. A rise above this level is not ruled out, but the major resistance at 145.50 is unlikely to come under threat. On the downside, support levels are at 144.00 and 143.50."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Following the sharp drop in USD last Thursday, we indicated on Friday (13 Jun, spot at 143.00) that 'not only has the likelihood of a recovery dissipated, but the chance of USD declining to 142.20 has also increased.' However, we pointed out, 'should USD break above 144.40, it would suggest that it could trade in a broad range for a period of time.' Our view was invalidated quickly, as USD rose to a high of 144.48. As indicated, the breach of 144.40 suggests USD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 143.00 and 145.50."

15:19 Gold eases after hitting a two-month high amid escalating Israel-Iran hostilities
Gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing a mild pullback during the European session after reaching a two-month high of $3,452.72 in the Asian session on Monday.

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However, after peaking, XAU/USD pulled back, trading above $3,400 at the time of writing.The main drivers of Gold prices so far have been their safe-haven appeal, movements in US 10-year Treasury yields, and profit-taking at higher levels.Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated over the weekend and are entering the fourth day of fighting with no signs of easing. The international community, including the United Nations (UN), Saudi Arabia, and the US, has called for calm and urged de-escalation. Daily digest market movers: Gold remains supported by Israel-Iran conflictIsrael’s attack on Iran has targeted military and nuclear sites. The so-called “Operation Rising Lion” was launched by Israeli leadership on Thursday evening and has resulted in the deaths of Iranian military leaders, scientists, and civilians. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on the attacks on Friday. The recent statement indicates that a few facilities have been damaged in Iran so far. The Natanz enrichment facility has sustained significant damage. The Isfahan (Esfahan) Nuclear Technology Center was also targeted, resulting in damage to the uranium metal production facilities.Iran’s health ministry has reported that the death toll is currently at 224. According to CNN, Israel’s death toll has currently been reported at 24. Both countries have broadened the scope of the attacks as the conflict enters its fourth day.The United States will hold a 20-year Bond Auction during the American session at 17:00 GMT. The auction will test the bond market after concerns about US debt sustainability have increased. The bond yield in the latest such auction – the interest rate a holder receives for investing in a bond – stood at 5.047%, the highest level since October 2023. Yields have an influence on the US Dollar’s valuation as higher bond yields can attract investment into the US Dollar, thus putting pressure on Gold prices.The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Investors broadly expect the Fed to maintain rates at the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting will be closely monitored, as will the Fed Press Conference and the Summary of Economic Projections (popularly known as the dot plot). These events will provide insight into the economic risks and factors that the Fed is watching, which will be delivered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The focus will be on the projected forecast on the interest rate trajectory and the outlook for the US given the current conditions.Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD eases back from $3,450Gold prices are edging lower, trading near $3,415 at the time of writing on Monday. However, the 4-hour chart shows that losses have been limited. After reaching a peak of $3,452 earlier in the day, a combination of profit-taking and technical support has limited the XAU/USD range. The immediate upside hurdle emerges at around $3,439, which marked the monthly high in May. The next level of resistance for the short-term move sits at $3,446, which came into play on Friday, and the daily high at $3,452. A break of this level could result in a retest of the $3,500 record high set in April.On the downside, initial support lies at the psychological level of $3,400, which aligns with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April move sits at $3,372.Gold (XAU/USD) 4-hour chartBeyond that level, the 50-period SMA at $3,363 provides another layer of defense, with deeper support levels at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, located near $3,292.Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart is at 59 and is stabilising after falling below overbought conditions, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact, albeit with a slight easing of momentum. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

15:18 JPY soft and underperforming ahead of BoJ Tuesday – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all of the G10 currencies in an environment of mild risk appetite, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all of the G10 currencies in an environment of mild risk appetite, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. JPY is unable to break the psychological 140 support level "This week’s main domestic risk event for JPY is the BoJ policy decision scheduled for Tuesday. A hold is widely anticipated however the uncertainty centers around the tone as policymakers risk softening their decidedly hawkish tone." "Domestic bond market volatility remains a core concern for the BoJ and recent comments from Gov. Ueda have hinted to the possibility of a less aggressive path for policy normalization. USD/JPY has been consolidating just below the midpoint of its two mount range and remains unable to break the psychologically important 140 support level – for now."

15:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) above forecasts (248K) in May: Actual (279.5K)
Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) above forecasts (248K) in May: Actual (279.5K)

15:13 USD/JPY: BoJ is coming up next – OCBC
Geopolitical escalation in Middle East saw safe haven proxies, including JPY strengthening last Friday. USD/JPY was last at 144.12 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Geopolitical escalation in Middle East saw safe haven proxies, including JPY strengthening last Friday. USD/JPY was last at 144.12 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. 2-way trades likely in the interim"USD/JPY touched a low of 142.80 before rebounding. Surge in oil prices saw UST yields rising, leading to USD/JPY’s rebound. BoJ MPC on Tue may complicate JPY’s safe haven story. Governor Ueda’s recent comments that BoJ is still some distance from 2% goal gave the impression that the timing of next hike may be pushed back.""Although the timing of BoJ policy normalisation may be deferred, policy normalisation is not derailed. Broadening price pressure and wage growth suggest that BoJ’s next course of action remains a hike but in the interim, BoJ may prefer to stay on hold due to uncertainties on outlook and tariff." "Nevertheless, we remain watchful for any surprise hawkish tone as that may pose downward pressure on the pair. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. 2-way trades likely in the interim. Support at 144 (21, 50 DMAs), 142.50 levels. Resistance at 145.10, 145.50 levels."

15:07 GBP flat into high risk week – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Monday’s NA session flat against the US Dollar (USD), a relative underperformer in an environment of modest risk appetite and mild USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Monday’s NA session flat against the US Dollar (USD), a relative underperformer in an environment of modest risk appetite and mild USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CPI is on Wednesday and BoE is on Thursday"Domestic risk is elevated this week as markets await Wednesday’s CPI release, coming just ahead of Thursday’s BoE where policymakers are expected to deliver a widely anticipated hold. Recent data disappointments have delivered an adjustment in expectations for the BoE, building in slightly more easing into the end of the year with markets now pricing nearly two 25bpt cuts.""GBP/USD remains well supported as it continues to push to fresh multi-year highs. The RSI is bullish but well short of overbought levels, and there appear to be no major resistance levels ahead of 1.3750. We look to near-term support around 1.3520 and near-term resistance in the lower 1.36s."

14:59 Copper prices are edging lower – ING
Copper edged lower after China’s new-home prices fell the most in seven months, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Copper edged lower after China’s new-home prices fell the most in seven months, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Chinese monthly primary aluminium production rises 5%"China’s property market, a key sector for base metals demand, saw a 0.2% decline in new home prices in 70 cities in April. After several months of relatively encouraging data, where the pace of price declines slowed and more cities saw price stabilisation, we’re seeing faster price declines with fewer cities experiencing upswings. This suggests there’s a risk that the property market slides backwards again.""Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) numbers released this morning showed Chinese monthly primary aluminium production rising 5% year-on-year to 3.8mt in May, as domestic mills increased production amid rising profit margins. Cumulatively, output increased 4% YoY to 18.6mt over the first five months of the year.""The latest positioning data from the CFTC shows that speculators increased their longs of COMEX copper by 2,807 lots for a second consecutive week to 26,676 lots as of 10 June. The move was largely driven by falling gross shorts by 2,886 lots over the reporting week."

14:53 EUR up modestly, with focus on ECB/Fed outlook – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is up 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, extending its recovery from last week’s geopolitically-driven pullback, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is up 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, extending its recovery from last week’s geopolitically-driven pullback, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Market participants eye this week’s Fed meeting "The recovery in risk appetite is important, however the EUR’s fundamental underpinnings are critical as market participants eye this week’s Fed meeting and its implications for relative central bank policy. ""A good portion of the EUR’s recent rally has been provided by the ECB’s ongoing shift toward neutral, and further strength has resulted from a slightly more dovish adjustment in expectations for the Fed. This week’s data highlight will be Tuesday’s ZEW sentiment figures, along with another heavy week of ECB speaking engagements.""The trend is bullish, delivering a push to fresh multi-year highs and a break above 1.16. The RSI is confirming and showing renewed bullish momentum, climbing toward the mid 60s while still offering some room for gains ahead of the overbought threshold closer to 70. The 50 day MA (1.1332) remains an important medium-term support level. The near-term range is likely to be bound between 1.1500 support and 1.1650 resistance."

14:51 NZD/USD surges to near 0.6040 as investors digest Middle East tensions
The NZD/USD pair is up 0.5% to near 0.6040 during European trading hours on Monday. The Kiwi pair strengthens as demand for riskier assets has increased, while tensions between Israel and Iran remain intact.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD gains sharply to near 0.6040 as demand for risky assets improves despite tensions between Israel and Iran.Israel struck military and nuclear facilities in Iran, aiming to restrict them from building nuclear weapons.This week, the Fed is expected to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.The NZD/USD pair is up 0.5% to near 0.6040 during European trading hours on Monday. The Kiwi pair strengthens as demand for riskier assets has increased, while tensions between Israel and Iran remain intact. Theoretically, risky assets underperform, and demand for safe-haven bets, such as the US Dollar (USD), increases amid heightened geopolitical tensions.Last week, the Israeli army launched a series of attacks on military bases and nuclear facilities of Iran early Friday to stop Tehran from building nuclear warheads.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks down to near 98.00 after reversing early gains. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforms its peers as the market sentiment has turned favorable for risky assets. New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.30% -0.13% -0.29% -0.14% -0.56% -0.53% -0.04% EUR 0.30% 0.05% -0.02% 0.17% -0.14% -0.22% 0.27% GBP 0.13% -0.05% -0.04% 0.11% -0.18% -0.27% 0.21% JPY 0.29% 0.02% 0.04% 0.16% -0.57% -0.60% -0.16% CAD 0.14% -0.17% -0.11% -0.16% -0.36% -0.39% 0.10% AUD 0.56% 0.14% 0.18% 0.57% 0.36% -0.08% 0.41% NZD 0.53% 0.22% 0.27% 0.60% 0.39% 0.08% 0.49% CHF 0.04% -0.27% -0.21% 0.16% -0.10% -0.41% -0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote). On the domestic front, the US Dollar will be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.Investors will closely monitor the comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the press conference, following the interest rate decision, to get cues about when the central bank will start reducing its key borrowing rates. The major highlight of the Fed policy would be the Fed’s dot plot, which shows where officials see interest rates heading in the near and long term.Ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy announcement, investors will also focus on the Retail Sales data for May, which will be released on Tuesday. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is expected to have declined by 0.7% on month. Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates). Read more. Next release: Wed Jun 18, 2025 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4.5% Previous: 4.5% Source: Federal Reserve

14:50 CAD retains a firm undertone but ignores crude swings – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) retains a firm undertone against a generally softer US Dollar (USD). The CAD’s performance since the outbreak of Israel/Iran hostilities last week is fairly middling among the major currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) retains a firm undertone against a generally softer US Dollar (USD). The CAD’s performance since the outbreak of Israel/Iran hostilities last week is fairly middling among the major currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Little scope for counter trend corrections"The NOK and MXN are relative outperformers over that time frame but the CAD has not really benefitted from the jump in crude oil prices. Oil consumers (JPY) have underperformed somewhat but the situation reflects the rather limp relationship the CAD (and G10 FX) generally has with crude oil trends. The measured, rolling 1m correlation between the CAD and WTI is –17% (chart) and is worse over a shorter, rolling 10-day study (-38%)." "Meaningful Iranian supply disruption or a situation which compromised tanker traffic in the region (Straits of Hormuz) could prompt a stronger, and perhaps more sustained rise in crude which might lift the CAD. But for now, the driver behind the CAD’s firmer trend is mainly that it’s not the USD. Progress on US/Canada trade at this week’s G7 meeting in Canada might give the CAD a further lift. For now, spot is trading right about where our fair value estimate says it should be (1.3588).""Spot is traded at a marginal new low for the move down this morning, just fractionally below Friday’s low. The broader trend lower in funds remains intact and deeply-entrenched on the charts. Trend momentum signals are aligned bearishly for the USD across intraday, daily and weekly studies—implying ongoing downside pressure on the USD and (typically) little scope for counter trend corrections. Sustained losses through weekly support in the mid-1.36s now imply scope for USD losses to extend to 1.34 (50% retracement of the 2021/2025 move up at 1.3403) shortly. Resistance is 1.3650/60 and 1.3730."

14:46 Gold rises toward a record high – ING
Gold is higher at the Monday open, getting closer to a fresh all-time high, with rising tensions in the Middle East fuelling haven demand, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Gold is higher at the Monday open, getting closer to a fresh all-time high, with rising tensions in the Middle East fuelling haven demand, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note. Gold is still $50 below a record of $3,500.10"Friday saw prices jumping 1.4%. Gold is still $50 below a record of $3,500.10/oz reached in April. If the conflict in the Middle East escalates in the coming days, new highs are likely in sight for gold. Gold has rallied more than 30% this year, driven by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, geopolitical tensions and demand from central banks."

14:44 USD slips as risk sentiment improves – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is softer overall, crude oil is lower while the ILS is some 2% stronger and risk appetite is firmer at the start of what is likely to be a busy week for markets, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is softer overall, crude oil is lower while the ILS is some 2% stronger and risk appetite is firmer at the start of what is likely to be a busy week for markets, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. DXY remains on track to drop to the 90-95 zone"Middle East tensions persist but investors appear to be more comfortable with the contained nature of the confrontation so far. That’s not to say that the situation is easing—or might not deteriorate. President Trump said that Isreal and Iran may need to 'fight it out' before a settlement is found and remarked that while the US was not involved in the situation now, that could change. There is no obvious pressure for a quick de-escalation from the US at this point." "Calmer sentiment for now allows investors to refocus on this week’s event risk—policy decisions from the BoJ, Fed, SNB and BOE as well as the G7 meeting in Canada. Note that Chile and Sweden also hold central bank policy meetings this week. Among the major central banks, only the SNB is expected to ease policy—swaps are fully priced for a 1/4 point cut, returning the target rate to zero. Communication on the policy outlook will be important for the other central banks, especially the Fed." "The G7 no longer represents major event risk for FX but trade talks are likely to feature prominently in the discussions among leaders and progress here would add to the positive risk mood. Geo-political risk gave the USD a small lift from a new cycle low last week but impact was short-lived and broader USD negative considerations remain. The technical downtrend in the DXY remains intact and the outlook remains negative. Absent a significant, further flare up in geo-political risks, we think the DXY remains on track to drop to the 90-95 zone in the next few months."

14:36 USD: Dollar rebound has been lacklustre – ING
This was always meant to be a very busy week for markets, as a few key central bank meetings – including the Federal Reserve's – were set to refresh the market understanding of policymakers’ stance on the inflation-growth balance in the second month of global US protectionism.

This was always meant to be a very busy week for markets, as a few key central bank meetings – including the Federal Reserve's – were set to refresh the market understanding of policymakers’ stance on the inflation-growth balance in the second month of global US protectionism. But as we know, geopolitical developments have stormed into the picture, and the implications of the Middle East crisis for energy markets can easily spill over into central banks’ inflation assessments, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Explorations below 98.0 in DXY may not last very long"We should therefore start with geopolitics. The larger risk premium in oil prices is justified and disruptions could push Brent prices towards $80/bbl or even $120/bbl if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is affected. It is now trading just below $75 and should keep showing elevated intraday volatility. The higher oil prices mean central bankers are expected to be more cautious with easing or dovish guidance. The Fed, which is widely expected to keep rates on hold on Wednesday, can now use energy market volatility as an argument to fend off US President Donald Trump’s calls for rate cuts while it assesses the depth of the tariff impact on inflation.""But a more hawkish Fed is not enough to keep the dollar bid in the current environment. The USD bounce since the Israel-Iran strikes started has been relatively contained and is now being largely unwound. That is despite no signs of de-escalation in the region and oil prices staying supported. In our view, that is once again the symptom of the market’s distrust in the dollar at the moment, so even a clear-cut dollar positive event like an oil price shock mixed with geopolitical tensions fails to discourage the methodical USD-short building we have observed in the past couple of months every time the dollar was attempting a recovery.""With Treasury yields deterring rather than encouraging a return to USD in the current environment, we think further dollar rallies should continue to be faded. At the same time, though, the downside risks for USD are probably lower now that geopolitical risks have flared up, and considering how much risk premium is already in the dollar. Explorations below 98.0 in DXY may not last very long unless there are signs of de-escalation. The G7 summit in Canada starts today; expect headlines on trade and geopolitics throughout the next couple of days."

14:32 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD fails at $3,440 and approaches $3,400 support
Gold (XAU/USD) is correcting lower after rejection at the $3,440 resistance area on Friday.

14:25 NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 0.5970/0.6080 for now – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.6000 and 0.6050. In the longer run, upward pressure has faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range of 0.5970/0.6080 for now.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.6000 and 0.6050. In the longer run, upward pressure has faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range of 0.5970/0.6080 for now.Upward pressure has faded24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the sharp drop in NZD early last Friday, we indicated that 'the rapid increase in downward momentum suggests NZD could weaken further, even though it is unlikely to reach the major support at 0.5970.' We noted that 'there is another support level at 0.5995.' However, NZD fell less than expected, rebounding from a low of 0.5998. While the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase, the firmer underlying tone suggests NZD is likely to trade in a higher range between 0.6000 and 0.6050 today."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After holding a positive NZD view for more than a week, we revised our view to neutral last Friday (13 Jun, spot at 0.6025). We indicated that 'upward pressure has faded.' We also indicated that NZD 'is likely to trade in a range of 0.5970/0.6080 for now.' There is no changein our view."

14:20 Energy: Oil in focus – ING
Oil extended gains on Monday morning as Israel-Iran attacks extended to a fourth day. On Saturday, Israel temporarily knocked out a natural gas processing facility linked to the South Pars field and targeted fuel storage tanks during strikes.

Oil extended gains on Monday morning as Israel-Iran attacks extended to a fourth day. On Saturday, Israel temporarily knocked out a natural gas processing facility linked to the South Pars field and targeted fuel storage tanks during strikes. The attack triggered a powerful explosion and fire at the onshore Phase 14 gas processing plant and forced the shutdown of a production platform at the South Pars field, according to the semi-official Fars news agency, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Any supply disruptions can prompt OPEC to bring supply back "The attack was concentrated on Iran’s domestic energy system, rather than exports to international markets. However, it still raises concerns over energy security and supply. On Friday, oil prices surged more than they have in three years. Iran, the third biggest OPEC producer (despite US sanctions), pumps around 3.3 million barrels a day of crude oil and exports roughly 1.7 million barrels a day. The loss of this export supply would wipe out the surplus that was expected in the fourth quarter of this year.""However, OPEC sits on 5m b/d of spare production capacity, and so any supply disruptions could prompt OPEC to bring this supply back onto the market quicker than expected. In a scenario where we see continued escalation, there’s potential for disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the biggest fear for the oil market. This would impact oil flows from the Persian Gulf, and prices could soar further. Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz.""The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net longs in ICE Brent by 29,159 lots for a second consecutive week to 196,922 lots as of last Tuesday, the highest bullish bets since the week ending on 1 April. This was driven predominantly by new longs entering the market and the liquidation of short positions. Similarly, in the NYMEX WTI, speculators boosted their net long by 16,056 lots for the second week straight to 179,134 lots over the reporting week, the highest since the week ending on 28 January."

13:58 US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats below 98.00, weighed by a brighter market mood
Friday’s US dollar recovery has been short-lived.

13:58 DXY: Rangebound for now – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) remains a touch firmer amid geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran. DXY was last at 97.93 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) remains a touch firmer amid geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran. DXY was last at 97.93 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Geopolitical risks may keep risk sentiment fragile"This morning, Bloomberg headlines stated that Iran’s new Israel strike was 'more crushing' than before. While USD rebounded last Friday, the constrained price action suggests it has yet to fully reclaim its safe haven status. Geopolitical risks—especially renewed tensions between Israel and Iran—may keep risk sentiment fragile. As such, high-beta FX such as AUD and NZD may trade on the back foot if tensions continue to rise.""That said, de-escalation would likely weigh on the dollar and bring support back to risk proxies. Focus this week is on FOMC (Thursday 2am SGT). Status quo likely, but all eyes are on the dot plot and the press conference. Markets look for 2 cuts by year-end. If the Fed signals just one cut (last dot plot looks for 2 cut) or pushes back easing expectations, then USD could get another lift, but anything less hawkish/more dovish could trigger USD selling." "Daily momentum is mild bearish bias while RSI shows signs of rising from near oversold conditions. Resistance at 99.20 (21 DMA), 99.70 levels (50 DMA). Support at 97.60 (recent low). Day ahead bring empire manufacturing data."

13:55 USD/CHF consolidates near two-month lows with traders eyeing Fed-SNB cues
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is holding steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slips back below 98.00, with traders brace for a relatively calm start to a week full of central bank decisions and the context of an escalating war between Israel and Iran..

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF holds steady near 0.8115 as traders brace for Fed and SNB rate verdicts this week.Swiss producer and import prices fell further in May, reinforcing expectations for a SNB interest-rate cut.The KOF trims Swiss 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5%, citing erratic US trade policy as a drag.The Fed is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, while the SNB is likely to cut rates by 25 bps to 0% on Thursday.The Swiss Franc (CHF) is holding steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slips back below 98.00, with traders brace for a relatively calm start to a week full of central bank decisions and the context of an escalating war between Israel and Iran..The USD/CHF pair is hovering around 0.8106 during the European session, holding within a narrow range between 0.8100 and 0.8130 after bouncing back from Friday’s dip to a two-month low near 0.8056. Market participants remain cautious, keeping positions light ahead of this week’s key interest-rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB).On Monday, fresh data continued to highlight subdued inflation in Switzerland. Producer and Import prices declined by 0.7% YoY in May, marking a deeper drop than April’s 0.5% fall and highlighting persistent disinflation pressures. On a monthly basis, prices slipped 0.5% in May, surprising markets by reversing the previous month’s 0.1% uptick and adding to expectations that the SNB may opt for further policy easing this week.Adding to the dovish narrative, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute revised its outlook for Switzerland’s economic growth in 2026 on Monday, citing unpredictable US trade policies as a key headwind. The think tank now expects sport-adjusted GDP to expand by 1.5% in 2026, a 0.4 percentage point downgrade, while maintaining its 2025 growth projections unchanged at 1.4%. The KOF also sees a gradual rise in unemployment to a neutral 3% by the end of next year and forecasts a slower pace of job creation amid heightened policy uncertainty. Softer energy costs and the resilient Swiss Franc (CHF) have also prompted KOF to cut its inflation projections to 0.2% for 2025 and 0.5% for 2026.In line with this cooling price trend, the institute expects the Swiss National Bank to lower rates by 25 basis points to 0% on Thursday and maintain that stance through the forecast horizon.On the US side, traders will watch the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index later on Monday for fresh insight into factory activity, followed by the US Retail Sales report on Tuesday, which will help gauge the health of consumer spending. However, the main spotlight remains on this week’s central bank decisions: the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, maintaining its cautious stance. Expectations surrounding the Fed decision, coupled with that from the SNB and geopolitical headlines emerging from the Middle East, will set the tone for the USD/CHF pair in the days ahead. Economic Indicator SNB Interest Rate Decision The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s four scheduled annual meetings, one per quarter. Generally, if the SNB is hawkish about the inflation outlook of the economy and raises interest rates, it is bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF). Likewise, if the SNB has a dovish view on the economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for CHF. Read more. Next release: Thu Jun 19, 2025 07:30 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 0% Previous: 0.25% Source: Swiss National Bank

13:51 AUD/USD: Likely to trade sideways between 0.6430 and 0.6550 – UOB Group
Downward pressure appears to have eased; Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade sideways between 0.6460 and 0.6520. In the longer run, AUD appears to have moved into a range-trading phase between 0.6430 and 0.6550, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Downward pressure appears to have eased; Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade sideways between 0.6460 and 0.6520. In the longer run, AUD appears to have moved into a range-trading phase between 0.6430 and 0.6550, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.AUD appears to have moved into a range-trading phase 24-HOUR VIEW: "After AUD fell sharply in the early Asian session last Friday, we indicated that 'the decline has scope to extend to 0.6460.' However, we pointed out that 'the major support at 0.6430 is unlikely to come under threat.' While our assessments were not wrong, as AUD dropped to a low of 0.6457, it rebounded quickly from the low. Downward pressure appears to have eased with the rebound, and today, AUD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 0.6460 and 0.6520."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from last Friday (13 Jun, spot at 0.6495) is still valid. As highlighted, 'the current price movements are likely the early stages of a range-trading phase, and we expect AUD to trade between 0.6430 and 0.6550 for the time being.'

13:43 USD/JPY gives back early gains ahead of BoJ-Fed monetary policy decision
The USD/JPY pair surrenders its early gains and flattens around 144.15 during European trading hours on Monday. The pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) falls back after failing to extend Friday’s recovery move.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY gives up initial gains and turns flat around 144.15, while safe-haven assets lose steam.Both the BoJ and the Fed are expected to leave interest rates at their current levels.Fed officials have already indicated that monetary policy adjustments are inappropriate until they get clarity on the economic outlook under Trump’s leadership.The USD/JPY pair surrenders its early gains and flattens around 144.15 during European trading hours on Monday. The pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) falls back after failing to extend Friday’s recovery move.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, retreats to near 98.00. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.36% -0.18% -0.35% -0.16% -0.57% -0.48% -0.17% EUR 0.36% 0.07% 0.00% 0.21% -0.08% -0.12% 0.20% GBP 0.18% -0.07% -0.06% 0.14% -0.14% -0.19% 0.13% JPY 0.35% 0.00% 0.06% 0.19% -0.52% -0.50% -0.23% CAD 0.16% -0.21% -0.14% -0.19% -0.34% -0.33% -0.01% AUD 0.57% 0.08% 0.14% 0.52% 0.34% -0.04% 0.28% NZD 0.48% 0.12% 0.19% 0.50% 0.33% 0.04% 0.32% CHF 0.17% -0.20% -0.13% 0.23% 0.01% -0.28% -0.32% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Meanwhile, the demand of safe-have assets, such as the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen (JPY), has diminished despite tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated.This week, the major triggers for the pair will be monetary policy announcements by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday, respectively.The BoJ is expected to leave interest rates steady at 0.5% as officials have expressed growth concerns amid global uncertainty due to trade war risk stemming from the tariff policy imposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump.Simultaneously, the Fed is also expected to hold borrowing rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% as officials have stated that they need clarity on the new economic policies announced by US President Trump before making any monetary policy adjustments.Investors will closely monitor the Fed’s dot plot, which shows where officials see interest rates heading in the medium and long term. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 17, 2025 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 0.5% Previous: 0.5% Source: Bank of Japan

13:25 China: Consumption up, investment down – Standard Chartered
Retail sales growth accelerated to a 17-month high in May on front-loaded policy support. Better sentiment after US-China tariff truce supported steady export and IP growth.

Retail sales growth accelerated to a 17-month high in May on front-loaded policy support. Better sentiment after US-China tariff truce supported steady export and IP growth. Property sector continued to contract, dragging down headline FAI; more support is needed, Standard Chartered's economists report. Household demand recovery continued in May"Real activity data in May suggests household consumption picked up further and production activity remained resilient partly due to the front-loading of fiscal stimulus and export orders. Industrial production (IP) and retail sales growth accelerated to 0.61% and 0.93% m/m, respectively. Export growth slowed but remained steady, while imports declined faster y/y, resulting in a larger trade surplus in May. In addition, services production index growth picked up to 6.2% y/y. We estimate that monthly GDP growth stayed above 5% y/y. We therefore see upside risk to our Q2 GDP growth forecast of 4.7% y/y.""Meanwhile, we remain cautious on the H2 growth outlook. The housing sector remains a significant drag on the economy: property investment contracted 10.7% y/y in 5M-2025, extending 2024’s double-digit decline; home sales, home prices and new starts all fell faster in May relative to April. More policy support is needed to stabilise the market, in our view. Economic outperformance YTD has benefited from the front-loading of fiscal stimulus, including the consumer goods trade-in programme, the effects of which we expect to fade in H2. Externally, the ongoing global trade war will likely lead to slower global growth and demand. Our baseline assumes that the current US tariffs on China will be maintained following the 90-day tariff truce reached in Geneva last month, with export orders normalising from the front-loading effect."

13:11 AUD/USD pares Friday’s losses and returns above 0.6500 as risk aversion ebbs
The Australian Dollar is one of the stronger performers on Monday, favoured by an improving market sentiment and a weaker US Dollar. The pair is rallying about 0.45% so far today, returning to levels past 0.6500 as fears about the Middle East conflict ease.

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The pair is rallying about 0.45% so far today, returning to levels past 0.6500 as fears about the Middle East conflict ease.Iran and Israel have continued shelling each other for the fourth consecutive day, but fears that the conflict might escalate into a regional war have eased, and, so far, Iran has not threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz. This is a key gateway for oil traffic, and its closure might draw the US into the war.The comments from Iran’s Foreign Ministry announcing that the parliament is preparing a bill to leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty have not offset the moderately positive market sentiment. Several countries have offered themselves to mediate in the conflict, including China and Russia, and Trump is pushing both countries to reach a deal, which feeds hopes that a peace agreement is possible.On the macroeconomic front, data from China has been mixed. The higher-than-expected CPI revealed that consumption is picking up in Australia’s main trading partner, and that is positive for the Aussie. Industrial production, however, slowed down beyond expectation, suggesting that the Chinese economy is not out of the woods yet. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

12:52 EU prepared to accept a flat 10% US tariff under clear conditions
Handelsblatt, a German newspaper, reported on Monday that the European Commission is prepared to accept a flat-rate United States (US) tariff of 10% under clear conditions.

Handelsblatt, a German newspaper, reported on Monday that the European Commission is prepared to accept a flat-rate United States (US) tariff of 10% under clear conditions.Additional takeawaysBrussels negotiators hope that a flat tariff will avert higher US duties on cars, pharmaceuticals, and microelectronics.

Americans have not yet agreed to limit their car tariffs against the European Union (EU) to 10%.

If the US waives higher car tariffs, the EU will lower its import tariffs on US vehicles and recognize certain American product standards in future.

12:46 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates gains above $36.00
Silver prices (XAG/USD) remain close to the multi-year highs near $37.00 hit last week, despite a moderate decline in demand for safe-haven assets, like precious metals, as fears that the Israel-Iran war might turn into a regional conflict have eased.Israel and Iran have kept exchanging missile atta

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver correction has been contained above $36.00, the trend remains positive.The precious metal holds gains despite a less favourable context for safe havens.XAG/USD maintains its bullish trend intact with $37.00 resistance in focus.Silver prices (XAG/USD) remain close to the multi-year highs near $37.00 hit last week, despite a moderate decline in demand for safe-haven assets, like precious metals, as fears that the Israel-Iran war might turn into a regional conflict have eased.

Israel and Iran have kept exchanging missile attacks over the weekend in a war that entered its fourth day, but the conflict did not extend to other countries in the area, at least for now. Apart from that, several countries have offered their efforts to mediate between the contenders, and US President Dolanld Trump is pushing them to sit and try to reach a peace deal. All this has translated into a slightly brighter market mood, which is weighing on demand for precious metals XAG/USD bulls remain focused on the $37.00 resistance area The technical picture remains bullish. The pair has been posting higher highs and higher lows since early June, and the correction from last week's highs has been contained at $35.50.

The doji candles on the daily chart reflect a hesitant market at current levels, but the 4-Hour RSI remains steady above 50, highlighting the bullish trend.

On the downside, immediate support is at the $36.00 level (June 11 and 13 lows) above $35.50 (June 12 low). A bearish reaction below here would put the bullish trend into question and bring the June 4 low, at $34.20, back into play.

On the upside, the $37.00 area is the 261.8% retracement of the April-May trade range, often a target for bullish and bearish cycles. So far, however, there is no clear sign of a trend shift. Above here, the next target is the 361.8% Fibonacci extension of the same trend, at $39.10. XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

12:45 GBP/USD: Likely to trade sideways between 1.3515 and 1.360 – UOB Group
Current price movements are likely part of a sideways trading phase between 1.3515 and 1.3605. In the longer run, GBP must first close above 1.3640 before a move to 1.3700 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Current price movements are likely part of a sideways trading phase between 1.3515 and 1.3605. In the longer run, GBP must first close above 1.3640 before a move to 1.3700 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Likelihood of closing above 1.3640 remains intact while above 1.351524-HOUR VIEW: "GBP rose sharply and closed higher by 0.58% at 1.3615 last Thursday. On Friday, when GBP was at 1.3600, we pointed out that 'conditions are deeply overbought, and GBP is unlikely to rise much further.' We expected GBP to 'trade in a higher range of 1.3540/1.3640.' However, GBP pulled back to 1.3518 before rebounding to close at 1.3574 (-0.30%). Momentum indicators are turning flat, and the current price movements are likely part of a sideways trading phase, probably between 1.3515 and 1.3605." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our GBP view to neutral last Thursday (12 Jun, spot at 1.3565), stating that GBP 'appears to have moved into a 1.3495/1.3620 range trading phase.' After GBP rose and closed at 1.3616, we highlighted the following last Friday (13 Jun, spot at 1.3600): 'Upward momentum is increasing, but we prefer to wait for a decisive close above 1.3640 before revising our GBP outlook to positive. The likelihood of GBP closing above 1.3640 will remain intact as long as 1.3515 is not breached.' GBP subsequently pulled back close to our ‘strong support’ level of 1.3515, reaching a low of 1.3518. We will maintain our view for now, but after the pullback, the likelihood of GBP closing above 1.3640 has diminished considerably."

12:43 Iran’s Foreign Ministry: Parliament is preparing a bill to leave nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Esmaeil Baghaei, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Monday that the Iranian parliament is preparing a bill to leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Esmaeil Baghaei, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Monday that the Iranian parliament is preparing a bill to leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).Baghaei further noted that “Tehran remains opposed to developing of weapons of mass destruction.”

12:42 JPY: BoJ to hold, but hike chances underpriced – ING
G10 central bank activity this week starts with the Bank of Japan, which is widely expected to keep rates at 0.5% overnight, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

G10 central bank activity this week starts with the Bank of Japan, which is widely expected to keep rates at 0.5% overnight, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Yen remains a rather attractive hedge at the moment"But the primary focus, alongside any forward guidance, will be on the interim review of Japanese government bond purchase operations. Despite speculation that the BoJ might reduce its quarterly purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen, it is expected to maintain the current pace.""While the BoJ may not give much away in terms of rates guidance at tomorrow’s meeting, we think the risks are definitely skewed to the hawkish side. In our view, markets continue to underestimate the risks of a rate hike as early as July or September, which are 10% and 25% priced in at the moment.""We think the yen remains a rather attractive hedge at the moment, especially if US equities face more hits from geopolitics. Excessive rallies in oil prices may dent the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven, but a hawkish repricing in BoJ expectations should make up for it in our view."

12:37 EUR/USD: Expected to consolidate in a range of 1.1495/1.1600 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is expected to consolidate in a range of 1.1495/1.1600. EUR surged to 1.1631 last Thursday.

Euro (EUR) is expected to consolidate in a range of 1.1495/1.1600. EUR surged to 1.1631 last Thursday. In the longer run, upward momentum has slowed somewhat; a breach of 1.1480 would suggest EUR may trade in a range instead of rising further, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Upward momentum has slowed somewhat24-HOUR VIEW: "On Friday, when EUR was at 1.1595, we highlighted the following: 'Conditions are deeply overbought, and while EUR may rise above 1.1631, any further advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1530/1.1640.' The subsequent price movements did turn out as we expected, as EUR pulled back sharply to 1.1488 before rebounding to close down by 0.27% at 1.1552. Upward momentum is turning flat, and today, we expect EUR to consolidate in a range of 1.1495/1.1600." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Thursday (12 Jun, spot at 1.1495), we revised our EUR outlook to positive, but we indicated that 'it is too early to tell if there is enough momentum for EUR to reach last month’s high, near 1.1575.' After EUR soared above 1.1575, we indicated on Friday (13 Jun, spot at 1.1595) that EUR 'is likely to continue to rise, and the levels to watch are 1.1640 and 1.1700.' We added, 'if EUR were to break below 1.1480 (‘strong support’ level), it would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.' We did not expect EUR to pull back sharply to 1.1488. Upward momentum has slowed somewhat, and a breach of 1.1480 would suggest that EUR may trade in a range instead of rising further."

12:34 GBP/USD: Pullback is on the cards – OCBC
Pound Sterling (GBP) eased further as escalation in geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiments. Pair was last at 1.3583 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) eased further as escalation in geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiments. Pair was last at 1.3583 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Pullback lower not ruled out in the near term"Daily momentum shows tentative signs of turning mild bearish while RSI fell. Pullback lower not ruled out in the near term. Support at 1.3510 (21 DMA), 1.3440 levels. Resistance at 1.3630 (overnight high)." ""This week’s focus on BoE (Thursday). No change is expected, but weaker labour market report and downside surprise to growth already saw markets add to rate cut expectations later this year. Dovish tilt in MPC vote may see GBP extend recent pullback."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:27 Indian Trade Ministry: India and US aiming to sign interim deal before July 9
An official from the Indian Trade Ministry said on Monday that “India and US are aiming to sign interim deal before July 9.”

12:24 EUR: Peak central bank action in Europe – ING
The eurozone’s dependence on energy price exports should put a curb on EUR/USD upside in our view, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The eurozone’s dependence on energy price exports should put a curb on EUR/USD upside in our view, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Short-term fair value is just below 1.110"We had already argued before the Israel-Iran conflict began that moves beyond 1.1600 started to look too stretched based on previous peaks of misvaluation. At the time of writing, the short-term fair value is just below 1.110 according to our model, and moves below 1.1640 would send the pair beyond the three-standard-deviation upper bound.""Anyway, price action in the coming days will be heavily dependent on oil market volatility and the USD moves. On the eurozone side, the main highlights are the ZEW survey results out tomorrow, and a few speeches by the European Central Bank's Governing Council members. Today, we’ll hear from both sides of the spectrum: hawk Joachim Nagel and dove Piero Cipollone.""Expect a lot of action in other European central banks. The Riksbank (Wednesday) and the Swiss National Bank (Thursday) are both expected to cut rates by 25bp, although for the former, it is a closer call in light of the latest oil price shocks. Expect holds by the Bank of England and Norges Bank on Thursday."

12:18 Israel: Destroyed more than one-third of Iran's missile launchers
A spokesperson for the Israeli military said on Monday that they have “destroyed more than one-third of Iran's surface-to-surface missile launchers.”

A spokesperson for the Israeli military said on Monday that they have “destroyed more than one-third of Iran's surface-to-surface missile launchers.”Separately, Israel’s Defence Minister noted that “there is no intention to physically harm the residents of Tehran.”

12:00 Eurozone Labor Cost Index registered at 3.4% above expectations (3.2%) in 1Q
Eurozone Labor Cost Index registered at 3.4% above expectations (3.2%) in 1Q

11:50 EUR/GBP rises above 0.8500 as Israel-Hamas tensions ease
EUR/GBP gains ground after registering little losses in the previous session, trading around 0.8530 during the European hours on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP appreciates due to improved risk sentiment, driven by potential for temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.Israel has submitted revised proposal in hostage negotiations with Hamas, suggesting a possible ceasefire.The BoE is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.25% on Thursday.EUR/GBP gains ground after registering little losses in the previous session, trading around 0.8530 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross receives support as the Euro (EUR) appreciates against its peers due to improved risk sentiment, driven by Israel's submission of revised proposal in hostage negotiations with Hamas, which could lead to a temporary ceasefire.The Euro (EUR) also receives support as traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to pause its easing cycle to assess the impact of new US tariffs. The ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos said that the Eurozone’s economy had proven resilient but faced a number of risks, such as tariffs, that could curb growth.UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be eyed on Wednesday, with market expectations of prices growing at a moderate pace in May. Traders expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25% at its policy meeting on Thursday.However, the risk-sensitive Euro may face challenges due to rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Both countries continue attacking each other despite international calls for diplomacy and de-escalation. Iran fired multiple missiles targeting Israeli military-industrial centers and fuel facilities.Iran informed mediators Qatar and Oman that it will not enter negotiations while under attack. A source denied reports that Tehran had approached Oman and Qatar with a request to engage the United States (US) to broker a ceasefire with Israel. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

11:30 USD/CAD approaches YTD lows at 1.3565 after failure at 1.3600
The USD/CAD recovery attempt seen during Monday’s early trade has failed to find acceptance above 1.3600.

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The USD/CAD recovery attempt seen during Monday’s early trade has failed to find acceptance above 1.3600. The pair retraced gains afterwards, weighed by broad-based US Dollar weakness, and is approaching eight-month lows at 1.3565.

The Greenback opened the week on a moderate positive tone, and trimmed some losses, favoured by a significant reversal on Oil prices. The US Benchmark WTI corrected 3% lower on early trading, retreating from $75.00 to levels right above $71, and dragging the commodity-sensitive CAD down with them.The US Dollar loses ground as safe-haven demand fadesThe pair, however, was unable to extend gains past the 1.3600 level, with fears about the Iran and Israel conflict easing, which has undermined demand for safe-haven assets. Several countries have offered themselves to mediate in the war, and US President Trump is pushing the rivals to find a deal, which has contributed to easing market concerns.

On the other hand, a news report released over the weekend revealed that last week’s agreement between the US and China might have left the key issue of rare earths trade unresolved. This has revived concerns about tariff uncertainty, as the clock ticks towards the July 9 deadline with no significant progress on trade deals.

In Canada, a moderate optimism that the scheduled meeting between US President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney ahead of the G7 summit might help to bring the parties close to some trade compromise is acting as support for the loonie. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

11:25 AUD/JPY jumps to near 94.00 as safe-haven assets lose steam, BoJ policy in focus
The AUD/JPY pair climbs to near 94.00 during European trading hours on Monday. The cross moves sharply higher as demand for safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) has diminished, while tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY gains sharply to near 94.00 as the safe-haven demand of the Japanese Yen diminishes.The BoJ is expected to hold interest rates steady at 0.5%.This week, investors will focus on the Aussie employment data for May.The AUD/JPY pair climbs to near 94.00 during European trading hours on Monday. The cross moves sharply higher as demand for safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) has diminished, while tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.34% -0.15% -0.19% -0.11% -0.36% -0.19% 0.10% EUR 0.34% 0.07% 0.15% 0.23% 0.09% 0.14% 0.44% GBP 0.15% -0.07% 0.10% 0.16% 0.02% 0.09% 0.36% JPY 0.19% -0.15% -0.10% 0.05% -0.50% -0.39% -0.15% CAD 0.11% -0.23% -0.16% -0.05% -0.18% -0.09% 0.21% AUD 0.36% -0.09% -0.02% 0.50% 0.18% 0.05% 0.34% NZD 0.19% -0.14% -0.09% 0.39% 0.09% -0.05% 0.29% CHF -0.10% -0.44% -0.36% 0.15% -0.21% -0.34% -0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). S&P 500 futures have gained significantly during the European trading session, exhibiting an increase in the risk-appetite of investors. Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated as the former threatens to accelerate attacks if Tehran doesn’t stop launching missile attacks.Going forward, the major trigger for the Japanese Yen will be the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement on Tuesday. The BoJ is almost certain to keep interest rates steady at 0.5%. Investors will closely monitor comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda at the press conference, following the monetary policy decision, to get about cues about when the central bank could hike interest rates again.Earlier this month, Kazuo Ueda stated that interest rate hikes would become appropriate once officials get convinced that the “economy and inflation will re-accelerate after a period of economic sluggishness”.Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its peers, except European currencies. This week, investors will focus on the Australian employment data for May, which will be released on Thursday. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 17, 2025 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 0.5% Previous: 0.5% Source: Bank of Japan The Israeli army launched a series

11:02 Turkey Budget Balance increased to 235.2B in May from previous -174.7B
Turkey Budget Balance increased to 235.2B in May from previous -174.7B

11:01 Pound Sterling wobbles against US Dollar at the start of Fed-BoE monetary policy week
The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks up to near 1.3590 against the US Dollar (USD) so far on Monday, remaining inside Friday’s trading range.

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The GBP/USD pair is expected to keep trading within a tight range as investors have sidelined ahead of monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.At the start of the week, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges down to near 98.00.Investors will closely monitor the interest rate guidance from both central banks, while they are expected to leave those unchanged at their current levels. Fed officials have stated that interest rates should remain in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for a longer time until they get clarity about how the imposition of new economic policies by United States (US) President Donald Trump will influence inflation and impact economic growth. Policymakers have warned that Trump’s agenda could prove to be inflationary for the economy.In the Fed’s monetary policy announcement, investors will pay close attention to the dot plot, which shows where policymakers see interest rates heading in the near and long term. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling rises against its major peersThe Pound Sterling trades higher against its major peers on Monday, with investors awaiting the BoE’s interest rate announcement. The United Kingdom (UK) central bank is expected to leave borrowing rates steady at 4.25% on Thursday as officials guided a “gradual and careful” monetary-expansion approach, following a 25-basis-points (bps) interest rate reduction in May’s policy meeting.Financial market participants doubt that the BoE will retain its “gradual and careful” policy easing guidance as the latest employment data for the three-month period ending April showed cracks emerging in the job growth pace.UK business owners slowed down their hiring pace to offset the impact of an increase in their contribution to the social security scheme, which became effective in April. In the UK Autumn Statement, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves announced an increase in employers’ contribution to National Insurance (NI) to 15% from 13.8%.Ahead of the BoE monetary policy, investors will also focus on the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. The UK CPI report is expected to show that price pressures grew at a moderate pace.On the global front, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to limit investors’ appetite for risk-sensitive assets, such as the Pound Sterling. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has threatened to accelerate attacks on Iran if Iran continues firing missiles at Israel, Euronews reported. “Tehran will burn if it keeps launching attacks on Israel,” Katz said. Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important gateway for Oil shipping, Reuters reported.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling consolidates below 1.3600The Pound Sterling is broadly sideways below 1.3600 against the US Dollar on Monday. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 1.3500.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break decisively above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above that level.On the upside, the 13 January 2022 high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the horizontal line plotted from the September 26 high of 1.3434 will act as a key support zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (1.7%) in May: Actual (1.6%)
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (1.7%) in May: Actual (1.6%)

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in May
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in May

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) came in at 1.7% below forecasts (1.9%) in May
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) came in at 1.7% below forecasts (1.9%) in May

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) below expectations (0.1%) in May: Actual (-0.1%)
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) below expectations (0.1%) in May: Actual (-0.1%)

10:57 Forex Today: Markets focus on geopolitics as Iran-Israel conflict deepens
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 16:

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In the second half of the day, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will publish the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. Later in the American session, the US Treasury will hold a 20-year note auction. US Dollar PRICE This month The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.83% -0.72% 0.00% -1.69% -1.04% -1.19% -1.34% EUR 1.83% 1.16% 1.84% 0.14% 0.85% 0.98% 0.51% GBP 0.72% -1.16% 0.69% -0.99% -0.30% -0.34% -0.64% JPY 0.00% -1.84% -0.69% -1.68% -0.94% -1.03% -1.27% CAD 1.69% -0.14% 0.99% 1.68% 0.76% 0.65% 0.36% AUD 1.04% -0.85% 0.30% 0.94% -0.76% 0.14% -0.34% NZD 1.19% -0.98% 0.34% 1.03% -0.65% -0.14% -0.47% CHF 1.34% -0.51% 0.64% 1.27% -0.36% 0.34% 0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The military conflict between Israel and Iran, which started early Friday, continues for the fourth consecutive day. On Sunday, Israel said that they killed the chief of Iran's armed forces intelligence unit. According to Iran's health ministry, more than 200 people have been killed in Israeli attacks. Meanwhile, several news outlets reported that Iranian missiles hit Israel’s largest oil refinery located in Haifa Bay.Over the weekend, United States (US) President Donald Trump called upon Iran and Israel to make a deal. "We will have peace, soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings now taking place," he added on Truth Social. The US Dollar (USD) Index trades marginally lower on the day at around 98.00 in the European morning and US stock index futures stay in positive territory. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce the interest rate decision and publish the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called dot plot.Gold started the week on a bullish note and climbed to its highest level in nearly two months above $3,450 before losing its traction. At the time of press, XAU/USD was down about 0.5% on the day below $3,420.Crude oil prices shot higher on Friday and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose more than 10% for the week. WTI corrects lower early Monday and trades slightly above $71.00, losing about 2% on the day.Following Friday's decline, EUR/USD edges higher toward 1.1600 in the early European session on Monday.The data from China showed earlier in the day that Retail Sales rose by 6.4% on a yearly basis in May. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 5%. In this period, Industrial Production expanded by 5.8%. AUD/USD holds its ground and trades in positive territory above 0.6500 on Monday.GBP/USD ended the previous week higher despite posting daily losses on Friday. The pair clings to small daily gains and trades within a touching distance of 1.3600 in the early European morning.USD/JPY struggles to find direction at the beginning of the week and fluctuates in a relatively tight channel above 144.00. The Bank of Japan will announce monetary policy decisions in the Asian session on Tuesday. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

10:46 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Advances toward 0.6050 after breaking above nine-day EMA
NZD/USD is retracing its recent losses, trading around 0.6030 during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the bullish bias is prevailing as the pair remains within an ascending channel pattern.

10:46 EUR/USD regains lost ground as fears about the Middle East conflict ease
The EUR/USD pair is trading with moderate advances on Monday, extending its recovery after Friday’s reversal, following Israel’s attack on Iran.

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Israel and Iran have continued shelling each other over the weekend. Still, so far, the tensions have not spread throughout the region and Iran has not threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic path for Oil traffic and whose closure could draw the US into the conflict.

The US Dollar (USD), which rallied on Friday, favoured by investors’ rush for safety, is losing ground again., Tariff uncertainty and the lack of progress on deals between the US administration and its trading partners are resurfacing, weighing on the Greenback, with the clock ticking closer to the July 9 deadline.

Investors are also looking at the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will decide its monetary policy on Wednesday. Interest rates are unlikely to change, but the soft data seen recently might prompt the central bank to show a dovish shift in the tone of its statement, laying the ground for a rate cut in September.

If that is the case, we could see the US Dollar resuming its longer-term bearish trend in the second half of the week. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.37% -0.19% -0.25% -0.07% -0.42% -0.26% 0.06% EUR 0.37% 0.07% 0.13% 0.30% 0.06% 0.12% 0.43% GBP 0.19% -0.07% 0.08% 0.25% 0.00% 0.06% 0.37% JPY 0.25% -0.13% -0.08% 0.17% -0.48% -0.37% -0.10% CAD 0.07% -0.30% -0.25% -0.17% -0.28% -0.18% 0.13% AUD 0.42% -0.06% 0.00% 0.48% 0.28% 0.06% 0.37% NZD 0.26% -0.12% -0.06% 0.37% 0.18% -0.06% 0.31% CHF -0.06% -0.43% -0.37% 0.10% -0.13% -0.37% -0.31% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: The US Dollar loses ground again as fears of a regional conflict easeThe tensions between Israel and Iran extend for their fourth day, but investors are showing some relief at the fact that the conflict has not spread to other countries. Russia and Cyprus have offered themself to mediate in the conflict, and US President Donald Trump urged the countries to find a deal. Risk aversion is ebbing, and the US Dollar is retreating from Friday’s highs.
As fears about the Middle East war ease, the focus shifts back to the uncertain global trade scenario. A news report released this weekend suggests that the US-China deal might have left the issue of rare earths commerce unresolved, which increases speculation about the real scope and durability of the agreement. The US administration is failing to cut any significant deal with trading partners, except a modest one with the UK and an ambiguous one with China, and the July 9 deadline approaches. So far, this anxiety is harming the US Dollar the most.
The economic calendar is light in the Eurozone and the US on Monday. The main focus this week will be the Fed’s monetary policy decision, due on Wednesday. The main interest will be on Chairman Jerome Powell’s press release to assess whether the weak macroeconomic data seen in recent weeks has prompted the central bank to consider a rate cut in the near term.
Futures markets are pricing steady interest rates in June and July, and a 66% chance of an interest rate cut in September, according to data released by the CME Group’s Fed Watch tool.
Friday’s data revealed that the Eurozone Industrial Production month-over-month contracted at a 2.4% pace in April, well beyond the 1.7% fall expected, in a sign that tariff uncertainty has started to bite into the region’s economy. These figures increased negative pressure on the Euro (EUR).
In the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed improvement, with the index reaching its best preliminary reading in the last four months, at 60.5. Preliminary 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations, on the other hand, declined to 5.1% in June from 6.6% in May. Technical analysis: EUR/USD maintains its bullish trend intact while above 1.1495EUR/USD was rejected at levels above 1.1600 and corrected lower on Friday. Downside attempts, however, have been contained above a previous resistance area, at the 1.1500 area, which keeps the broader bullish structure intact.

The pair is now trading higher, with the 4-hour chart RSI moving well above the 50 level, indicating positive momentum. Immediate resistance is at 1.1575 intraday level, ahead of Friday’s highs in the 1.1615-1.1630 area.

On the downside, the support area is at the June 5 high, at 1.1495, and the 1.1500 psychological level is keeping bulls in control. Below here, the next support is at the 1.1460 area, where the pair was capped on June 2 and 10. Further decline beyond this level would put the bullish trend into question. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

10:31 WTI Oil corrects lower from $75.00, but remains well above May’s range
Crude prices have pulled back from five-month highs right above the $75.00 level on Monday, but they remain 12% above the levels seen one month ago, boosted by investors’ concern about supply disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel war.The price of the West Texas Intermediate barrel jumped about 3

10:30 ECB’s Nagel: It is not sensible to signal either pause or rate cut for the time being
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is delivering a speech titled "Goal achieved - no reason to give up" in Frankfurt, Germany, on Monday.

10:18 FX option expiries for Jun 16 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jun 16 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jun 16 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1350 1.4b1.1400 1.5b1.1450 1.5b1.1500 3.8b1.1565 2b1.1580 1.6b1.1600 2.6b1.1700 7.8bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 141.45 1b142.00 542m145.00 7.4bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6455 476m0.6505 566m0.6550 680mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3475 500mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8605 525m

10:04 US Dollar Index holds steady above 98.00 on heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a flat note near 98.15 during the early European session on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar Index flat lines around 98.15 in Monday’s early European session. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady at its June meeting.Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a flat note near 98.15 during the early European session on Monday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. Also, the developments surrounding Middle East geopolitical tensions will be closely watched. Based on the latest US inflation data, traders now see a nearly 80% possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, followed by another one in October, according to Reuters. Traders will take more cues from the FOMC Press Conference. "If the Fed delivers a dovish hold as we expect, the dollar is likely to resume weakening due to the worsening fundamental backdrop in the U.S.,” said Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.US consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months in June as trade tensions between the United States and China eased. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 60.5 in June from a final reading of 52.2 in May, beating the estimation of 53.5. The upbeat US economic data could lift the Greenback in the near term. The conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its fourth day, with both sides launching fresh missiles overnight despite world calls for negotiation and de-escalation. Any signs of escalating geopolitical tensions and risks into a broader regional conflict could boost the safe-haven flows, benefitting the USD. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

10:01 Turkey Current Account Balance dipped from previous $-4.087B to $-7.864B in April
Turkey Current Account Balance dipped from previous $-4.087B to $-7.864B in April

09:34 India WPI Inflation registered at 0.39%, below expectations (0.8%) in May
India WPI Inflation registered at 0.39%, below expectations (0.8%) in May

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in May
Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in May

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY): -0.7% (May) vs previous -0.5%
Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY): -0.7% (May) vs previous -0.5%

09:16 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $71.80 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $71.61.

09:08 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Key upside barrier emerges near 166.50
The EUR/JPY cross extends its upside to around 166.50 during the early European trading hours on Monday. A generally positive tone around the equity markets weighs on the safe-haven currency like the Japanese Yen (JPY).

08:57 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Treads water above 1.3550, nine-day EMA
The GBP/USD pair has recovered its daily losses, trading around 1.3570 during the Asian hours on Monday. The bullish bias may weaken as the daily chart’s technical analysis indicates that the pair is hovering around the ascending channel pattern.

08:39 USD/TWD remains depressed below mid-29.00s amid easing trade tensions
The USD/TWD pair continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers and trades with a mild negative bias below the 29.50 area during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices remain close to over a one-month low touched last Friday and seem unaffected by a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick.

08:33 GBP/JPY struggles to break above 196.00 ahead of BoJ-BoE monetary policy
The GBP/JPY pair struggles to extend its upside above 196.00 from the last three trading sessions. During Asian trading hours on Monday, the cross has faced pressure near 196.00 again and has ticked down to near 195.50.

08:26 US-China trade truce leaves military-use rare earth issue unresolved
The renewed US-China trade truce struck in London left a key area of export restrictions tied to national security untouched, an unresolved conflict that threatens a more comprehensive deal, per Reuters.

08:12 ECB's de Guindos: EUR/USD exchange rate at 1.15 is no big obstacle on inflation target
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday that the exchange rate of EUR/USD at 1.15 is no big obstacle on the inflation target.

08:04 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Ascending channel favors bulls ahead of the key central bank event risk
The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias below mid-1.1500s through the Asian session on Monday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, though it lacks bearish conviction.

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Investors also seem reluctant ahead of the key FOMC decision on Wednesday. The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias below mid-1.1500s through the Asian session on Monday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, though it lacks bearish conviction. Spot prices remain close to the highest level since October 2021, around the 1.1630 area touched last week as traders now look to the crucial FOMC policy decision on Wednesday before placing fresh directional bets. Heading into the key central bank event risk, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Moreover, the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish signal, that the end of the rate-cutting cycle is nearing, should act as a tailwind for the shared currency and continue supporting the EUR/USD pair. From a technical perspective, the recent move-up witnessed over the past month or so, along an ascending channel, points to a well-established short-term uptrend and favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and suggest that the path of the least hurdle for the EUR/USD pair is to the upside. Hence, any corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity. In the meantime, the 1.1500 psychological mark could protect the immediate downside ahead of the 1.1450-1.1445 horizontal resistance breakpoint. This is closely followed by the trend-channel support, around the 1.1435-1.1430 area, which should act as a pivotal point. A convincing break below the latter could drag the EUR/USD pair further below the 1.1400 mark, towards the 1.1370-1.1365 support zone. On the flip side, the 1.1570 area, followed by the 1.1600 round figure and the 1.1630 region, or the multi-year peak touched last Thursday, now seems to act as immediate hurdles. Some follow-through buying beyond the 1.1655-1.1660 zone, or the top end of the short-term ascending channel, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and allow the EUR/USD pair to aim towards conquering the 1.1700 mark. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

08:03 USD/INR refreshes two-month high on rising Oil prices, foreign outflows
The Indian Rupee (INR) posts a fresh two-month low, slightly above 86.20 against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar ticks up amid an increase in its safe-haven demand, following the conflict between Israel and Iran.

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The USD/INR pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar ticks up amid an increase in its safe-haven demand, following the conflict between Israel and Iran.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges up to near 98.30. Last week, the USD Index gained ground after posting a fresh three-year low near 97.60.No signs of efforts towards ending the conflict by both nations have forced investors to shift to the safe-haven fleet. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that “Tehran will burn” if Iran continues firing missiles at Israel, Euronews reported.Meanwhile, officials from Iran have threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, from which around one-fifth of the world's oil is transported to global markets, a move that could potentially boost oil prices. “Closing the waterway is under consideration and Iran will make the best decision with determination,” Commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Sardar Esmail Kowsari said in an interview over the weekend, Arab News reported.The scenario of rising Oil prices is unfavorable for the Indian Rupee, given that India is one of the leading Oil-importing nations in the world.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee underperforms due to multiple headwindsThe major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the United States (US) central bank is expected to leave interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. As the Fed is widely anticipated to keep borrowing rates on hold, investors will closely monitor the Fed’s dot plot, which shows where policymakers see interest rates heading in the near and long term. Market expectations will pay close attention to whether officials remain firm in their March projection that the central bank will cut interest rates at least once this year amid heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook due to the imposition of new economic policies by US President Donald Trump.Investors will also focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for comments regarding the impact of rising crude oil prices on the inflation outlook. Theoretically, higher Oil Prices discourage the Fed from supporting interest rate cuts.Ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy, investors will focus on the Retail Sales data for May, which will be released on Tuesday. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is expected to have declined by 0.7% on month after a 0.1% growth in April. Meanwhile, cooling inflationary pressures and consistent foreign outflows from the Indian market are factors responsible for Indian Rupee’s underperformance other than soaring Oil prices.Last week, the data showed that year-on-year CPI rose by 2.82% on year, the lowest level seen in over six years, signaling the need for further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The inflation report showed that modest growth in food inflation was the major factor contributing to slower CPI growth.In the Indian equity market, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in the last three trading sessions. FIIs have sold equities worth Rs. 4,812.39 crores this month till June 13, according to data from exchanges. Technical Analysis: USD/INR strengthens after recovery from 20-day EMAThe USD/INR pair jumps to near 86.23 on Monday, the highest level seen in two months. The pair strengthens after a strong recovery move from the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ON June 12 around 85.45.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00, suggesting that a fresh bullish momentum has been triggered.Looking down, the 20-day EMA is a key support level for the major. On the upside, the May 23 high of 86.44 will be a critical hurdle for the pair. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

07:52 USD/CHF strengthens above 0.8100 on renewed US Dollar demand
The USD/CHF pair gathers strength to around 0.8125 during the early European session on Monday, bolstered by the rebound in the US Dollar (USD). Investors await the Swiss May Producer and Import Prices and SECO Economic Forecasts, which will be published later on Monday.

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The upbeat Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index supports the US Dollar. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the June meeting on Wednesday. The USD/CHF pair gathers strength to around 0.8125 during the early European session on Monday, bolstered by the rebound in the US Dollar (USD). Investors await the Swiss May Producer and Import Prices and SECO Economic Forecasts, which will be published later on Monday. The stronger-than-expected Friday’s US economic data lift the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 60.5 in June, compared to 52.2 in the previous reading. This reading came in stronger than the 53.5 expected.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, recovers to near 98.25, adding 0.15% on the day. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting will take center stage later on Wednesday. The US central bank is anticipated to keep interest rates steady at its June meeting. Futures markets expect two rate cuts by year-end, possibly beginning in September, bolstered by softer inflation data last week. Investors fear that the conflict between Israel and Iran could escalate into a broader regional conflict. This, in turn, could boost the safe-haven currency like the CHF and create a headwind for the pair. Israel started attacks on Iran on Friday, targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories and killing military leaders. Late Sunday, Iran launched a fresh attack on Israel, with an explosion seen in the coastal city of Haifa. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:39 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:29 Gold price consolidates recent strong gains to the highest level since April
Gold price (XAU/USD) retreated slightly from its highest level since April 22, touched during the Asian session this Monday, though any meaningful corrective slide seems elusive.

Gold price struggles to capitalize on the Asian session uptick to a two-month high.A positive risk tone and a modest USD uptick acted as a headwind for the XAU/USD pair. Trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks should limit losses for the precious metal ahead of the FOMC meeting.Gold price (XAU/USD) retreated slightly from its highest level since April 22, touched during the Asian session this Monday, though any meaningful corrective slide seems elusive. Against the backdrop of persistent trade-related uncertainties, a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East turns out to be a key factor benefiting the safe-haven bullion. Apart from this, the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower borrowing costs further lends additional support to the non-yielding yellow metal.Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday. In the meantime, the US Dollar (USD) is looking to build on its modest recovery from a three-year low touched on Friday, acting as a headwind for the Gold price. Moreover, a generally positive tone around the equity markets contributes to capping the upside for the precious metal. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of the XAU/USD bulls. Daily Digest Market Movers: Bulls turn cautious ahead of the crucial Fed policy decision on WednesdayIran launched a new barrage of missiles and drones at Israel on Sunday evening, while the latter said that it began another series of strikes on military targets across Iran. Deadly strikes between Israel and Iran continued into Monday, with Israel vowing to intensify its operation against Iran. This comes on top of persistent uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies and lifts the safe-haven Gold price to a nearly two-month peak during the Asian session on Monday. A combination of factors, however, keeps a lid on any further gains for the commodity.The markets, so far, have reacted little to the heightened military conflict between Israel and Iran, which is evident from a positive tone around the Asian equities. Adding to this, a modest US Dollar uptick contributes to capping the precious metal and prompts some intraday selling. Any meaningful USD upside, however, seems elusive as traders might opt to wait for more cues about the Federal Reserve's rate cut path before placing fresh directional bets. Hence, the focus remains on the crucial FOMC policy decision, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday.The US central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. However, traders have been pricing in the possibility that the Fed would change its stance that interest rates will remain unchanged in the near term amid softer US inflation and signs of a cooling economy. The outlook will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the XAU/USD. In the meantime, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might continue to act as a tailwind for the yellow metal. Gold price constructive technical setup backs dip-buyers; the $3,400 mark holds the key for bullsFrom a technical perspective, Friday's breakout through the $3,400 mark, the formation of an ascending trend channel on short-term charts, and positive oscillators on the daily chart favor the XAU/USD bulls. Hence, any further corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited. Some follow-through selling below the $3,400 mark, however, should pave the way for deeper losses toward the $3,360 area, representing the lower end of the ascending channel. A convincing break below the latter would negate the constructive outlook and shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. On the flip side, momentum beyond the Asian session peak, around the $3,452-3,453 area, should allow the Gold price to aim towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April. The said handle coincides with the top boundary of the ascending channel, which, if cleared decisively, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend.

07:26 USD/CAD rebounds to near 1.3600 as Oil prices correct downwards, G7 Summit eyed
USD/CAD is trading around 1.3600 during the Asian hours on Monday after rebounding from eight-month low of 1.3566, which was recorded on June 13. The pair gains ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces challenges due to a decline in the crude Oil prices.

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The pair gains ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces challenges due to a decline in the crude Oil prices. This is important to note that Canada is the largest crude supplier to the United States (US), the largest Oil consumer.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is trading around $71.90 per barrel after pulling back from five-month high of $74.74, which was recorded on June 13. However, the downside of the Oil prices seems limited due to heightened fears of supply disruptions amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Israel and Iran continue attacking each other despite international calls for diplomacy and de-escalation, per CNN. Iran fired multiple waves of ballistic missiles toward Israel. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said their missiles successfully targeted Israeli military-industrial centers and fuel facilities.Iran informed mediators Qatar and Oman that it will not enter negotiations while under attack. A source denied reports that Tehran had approached Oman and Qatar with a request to engage the United States (US) to broker a ceasefire with Israel.The USD/CAD pair also receives support from increased safe-haven demand amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Moreover, the University of Michigan (UoM) reported on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 60.5 in June, surpassing market expectations of 53.5. The prior reading was 52.2 prior. Traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep its policy rate unchanged within the 4.25%–4.50% range in its upcoming decision on Wednesday.However, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) received supported from optimism surrounding the potential Canada-US trade deal ahead of the upcoming G7 summit scheduled for June 16-17. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will attend the summit in Canada alongside US President Donald Trump and meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

07:02 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD drifts lower below $36.50 on rising Middle East tensions
The Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to around $36.20 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The recovery in the Greenback weighs on the USD-denominated commodity price. However, the potential downside seems limited amid the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

06:16 NZD/USD remains above 0.6000, moves little after China’s economic data release
NZD/USD holds gains following the release of mixed economic data from China, trading around 0.6020 during the Asian hours on Monday. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that China’s Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, surpassing the 5.0% expected and April’s 5.1% increase.

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that China’s Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, surpassing the 5.0% expected and April’s 5.1% increase. Meanwhile, Industrial Production increased 5.8% YoY but below the 5.9% forecast and 6.1% prior.Moreover, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China noted in its press conference on Monday that domestic economy is expected to have remained generally stable for the first half (H1) of 2025. However, China may face challenges to maintain stable growth since the second quarter due to factors such as increased uncertainty in trade policies.In New Zealand, Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) declined to 44.0 in May from April’s 48.1. This has marked its lowest level since June 2024 and was the fourth consecutive month of contraction.However, the upside of the NZD/USD pair could be limited due to risk aversion, driven by the escalating tensions in the Middle East. Israel and Iran continue attacking each other despite international calls for diplomacy and de-escalation, per CNN. Iran fired multiple waves of ballistic missiles toward Israel. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said their missiles successfully targeted Israeli military-industrial centers and fuel facilities.Iran informed mediators Qatar and Oman that it will not enter negotiations while under attack. A source denied reports that Tehran had approached Oman and Qatar with a request to engage the United States (US) to broker a ceasefire with Israel. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

06:00 South Korea Money Supply Growth: 5.8% (April) vs 4.9%
South Korea Money Supply Growth: 5.8% (April) vs 4.9%

05:58 Japanese Yen remains on the back foot ahead of the crucial BoJ policy meeting
The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower for the second straight day on Monday, pushing the USD/JPY pair to the 144.75 area during the Asian session, albeit lacking follow-through.

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Expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might forego another interest rate hike this year, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, undermine the safe-haven JPY. Investors, however, seem convinced that the central bank will stick to the path toward policy normalization amid the broadening inflation. This, along with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, should help limit deeper JPY losses. Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for the crucial BoJ decision on Tuesday to determine the next leg of a directional move for the JPY. Investors this week will further take cues from the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen bulls remain on the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoJ decision on TuesdayThe Bank of Japan is reportedly weighing a plan to reduce the pace of its Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases by half, starting in April 2026. The proposal is set to be discussed at the two-day policy meeting, which begins this Monday, and is expected to receive a majority backing from board members.Meanwhile, the BoJ is widely anticipated to hold its benchmark rate steady at 0.5% at the end of the June policy meeting on Tuesday. Policymakers, however, see slightly stronger inflation than they had anticipated earlier this year, which, in turn, could pave the way for future interest rate hike discussions.The growing market acceptance that the BoJ might push for tighter monetary conditions, along with trade-related uncertainties and a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, lends some support to the safe-haven Japanese Yen. This caps the USD/JPY pair's move higher on Monday. Israel struck Iran’s nuclear sites and key personnel last Friday, calling the operation necessary to counter an existential threat.Iran responded with hundreds of drones over the weekend and warned of further retaliation. This ramps up geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and favors the JPY bulls. The US Dollar, on the other hand, struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and remains close to a three-year low touched last week amid persistent trade-related uncertainties. Moreover, bets that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs further in 2025 act as a headwind for the Greenback. Traders keenly await the crucial BoJ and Fed decisions on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, for cues about the future policy outlook and a fresh impetus. Nevertheless, the divergent BoJ-Fed expectations suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside. USD/JPY needs to surpass the trading range barrier near the 145.00 mark for bulls to seize controlFrom a technical perspective, the intraday move higher falters near the 144.75 region or a resistance marked by the top end of a multi-week-old trading range. Some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent move beyond the 145.00 psychological mark, will be seen as a key trigger for bulls and lift the USD/JPY pair to the monthly swing high, around the 145.45 region. The momentum might then allow spot prices to reclaim the 146.00 round figure and extend further towards the 146.25-146.30 region, or the May 29 peak. On the flip side, the 144.00 mark now seems to protect the immediate downside and any subsequent slide is more likely to attract some buying near the 143.55-143.50 region. A convincing break below the latter could drag the USD/JPY pair to the 143.00 round figure en route to Friday's swing low, around the 142.80-142.75 region and the lower boundary of the trading range, around mid-142.00s. Failure to defend the said support levels would set the stage for the resumption of the downtrend from the May monthly swing high. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:50 NBS: In H1 2025, China’s economy is expected to have remained generally stable
Following the release of the top-tier China’s May activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expressed its outlook on the economy during its press conference on Monday.

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China's policy toolkit is well-stocked, has the flexibility to adjust macro policies according to changing circumstances.

Overall level of prices still at a low level, which affects enterprises, employment and incomes.

There is difficulty in recruiting workers in some sectors and a high level of pressure on employment for some groups.

Still, some pressure on maintaining stable employment, primarily due to the complex and changing external environment.

Due to factors such as increased uncertainty in trade policies, it has been particularly challenging for China’s economy to maintain stable growth since the second quarter.

For the first half (H1) of this year, China’s economy is expected to have remained generally stable.Market reactionAUD/USD keeps the red near 0.6480, down 0.12% on the day, at the press time. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

05:24 Australian Dollar steadies following mixed economic data from China
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued for the second consecutive session due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar declines due to risk aversion amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions.China’s Retail Sales climbed 6.4% YoY in May, against the market expectations of 5.0% rise.The Iranian Revolutionary Guard fired multiple missiles targeting Israeli military-industrial centers and fuel facilities.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued for the second consecutive session due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The AUD holds losses following the release of Chinese key economic data, given Australia and China are close trade partners.China’s Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, surpassing the 5.0% expected and April’s 5.1% increase. Meanwhile, Industrial Production increased 5.8% YoY but below the 5.9% forecast and 6.1% prior.Israel and Iran continue attacking each other despite international calls for diplomacy and de-escalation, per CNN. Iran fired multiple waves of ballistic missiles toward Israel. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said their missiles successfully targeted Israeli military-industrial centers and fuel facilities.According to local Officials, 224 people killed in Iran and 14 killed in Israel, while Iran's Ministry of Health said that at least 1,277 people have been injured since Israel launched the wave of attacks on Friday.Iran informed mediators Qatar and Oman that Tehran "will not negotiate while under attack," according to an official briefed on the negotiations. The source said that “Reports Iran has approached Oman and Qatar with a request to engage the United States to broker a ceasefire with Israel and potentially renew nuclear negotiations are inaccurate.”Australian Dollar declines as US Dollar appreciates amid rising geopolitical tensionsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is recovering losses and trading higher at around 98.10 at the time of writing. The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be eyed later on Friday.The University of Michigan (UoM) reported on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 60.5 in June from 52.2 prior. This reading came in above the market consensus of 53.5.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 0.1% month-over-month in May, compared to a decline of 0.2% (revised from -0.5%). This reading came in softer than the expected 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1% MoM in May versus -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%), below the consensus of 0.3%.The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged within the 4.25%–4.50% range in its upcoming decision on Wednesday. Traders now expect a 25 basis point rate cut by September.Reuters reported Thursday that President Trump expanded steel tariffs starting June 23 on imported “steel derivative products,” including household appliances, such as dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. The tariffs were initially imposed at 25% in March and later doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time the scope of affected products has been expanded.President Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday that the trade deal with China is done and added that it is subject to his and Chinese President Xi Jinping's final approval. "We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent! Thank you for your attention to this matter."China will grant only six-month rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers, which suggests that China wants to have control over critical minerals as leverage in future talks, per the Wall Street Journal (gated).Australian Dollar holds losses below nine-day barrier near 0.6500The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6480 on Monday. The bullish bias persists as the daily chart’s technical analysis indicates the pair remaining within the ascending channel. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly above the 50 mark, indicating a prevailing bullish outlook. However, the pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that short-term price momentum is weaker.The immediate resistance appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6495, followed by the seven-month high of 0.6538, which was reached on June 5. A break above this level could support the pair to target the eight-month high at 0.6687, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6730.On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may test the ascending channel’s lower boundary around the 0.6470. A break below the channel would indicate the weakening of the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6425.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.03% 0.09% -0.14% 0.04% -0.02% -0.05% 0.04% EUR -0.03% -0.06% -0.20% 0.02% 0.07% -0.08% 0.02% GBP -0.09% 0.06% -0.12% 0.08% 0.14% 0.00% 0.08% JPY 0.14% 0.20% 0.12% 0.19% -0.18% -0.27% -0.22% CAD -0.04% -0.02% -0.08% -0.19% 0.00% -0.10% -0.00% AUD 0.02% -0.07% -0.14% 0.18% -0.01% -0.15% -0.05% NZD 0.05% 0.08% -0.00% 0.27% 0.10% 0.15% 0.10% CHF -0.04% -0.02% -0.08% 0.22% 0.00% 0.05% -0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Retail Sales (YoY) The Retail Sales data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in China. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Mon Jun 16, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 6.4% Consensus: 5% Previous: 5.1% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

05:02 China’s May Retail Sales rise 6.4%, Industrial Production up 5.8%
China’s April Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-over-year (YoY) vs. 5.0% expected and 5.1% in April, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday.

05:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 5.8%, below expectations (5.9%) in May
China Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 5.8%, below expectations (5.9%) in May

05:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 6.4% above expectations (5%) in May
China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 6.4% above expectations (5%) in May

05:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 3.7% below forecasts (3.9%) in May
China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 3.7% below forecasts (3.9%) in May

04:44 WTI extends upside above $72.00 as Israel-Iran conflict deepens
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.15 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

04:31 China House Price Index : -3.5% (May) vs -4%
China House Price Index : -3.5% (May) vs -4%

04:25 Israel has detected another wave of ballistic missile launches from Iran
Iran fired multiple waves of ballistic missiles toward Israel. Impacts are expected within the next few minutes.

04:16 EUR/USD remains subdued near 1.1550 due to rising Israel-Iran tensions
EUR/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.1540 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid rising safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East.

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The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid rising safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East.Israel started attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and missile factories on Friday. Iran responded with an attack on Israel late Sunday, with an explosion seen in the coastal city of Haifa. Israel continued attacking on military targets in Iran, despite international calls for diplomacy and de-escalation, per CNN.Moreover, Iranian media outlet Mehr News reported that Iran has started the fourth phase of operation against Israel on Sunday. Iranian officials underscored that they would “respond firmly to any adventurism” from Israel.On Friday, the University of Michigan (UoM) showed that the Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 60.5 in June from 52.2 prior. This reading came in above the market consensus of 53.5. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged within the 4.25%–4.50% range in its upcoming decision on Wednesday. However, traders now expect a 25 basis point rate cut by September.However, the downside of the EUR/USD pair could be restrained as the Euro (EUR) receives support from rising sentiment surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) of pausing its easing cycle to assess the impact of new US tariffs. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1789 vs. 7.1772 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1789 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1772 and 7.1854 Reuters estimate.

04:02 BoJ to consider halving JGB taper pace from 2026
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is considering reducing the pace of its Japanese government bond (JGB) tapering by half, beginning in April 2026, per the Japan News.

04:01 GBP/USD consolidates around mid-1.3500s ahead of this week’s key data/central bank event risks
The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive below a three-year top touched on Friday, though it lacks bearish conviction and oscillates in a narrow band around mid-1.3500s during the Asian session.

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The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive below a three-year top touched on Friday, though it lacks bearish conviction and oscillates in a narrow band around mid-1.3500s during the Asian session. Traders seem reluctant and opt to wait for this week's key data/central bank event risks before positioning for the next leg of a directional move for spot prices. The latest UK consumer inflation figures will be released on Wednesday ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting on Thursday, which will play a key role in influencing the British Pound (GBP). Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, which will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair. In the meantime, Friday's weaker UK GDP print, showing that the economy contracted more than expected, by 0.3% in April, lifted expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates more aggressively than anticipated. The USD, on the other hand, draws some support from the global flight to safety, fueled by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and contributes to capping the upside for the GBP/USD pair. However, the growing acceptance that the US central bank will also resume its rate-cutting cycle in September, amid signs of easing inflation in the US, holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Moreover, a generally positive risk tone acts as a headwind for the safe-haven buck and lends some support to the GBP/USD pair, warranting some caution before confirming that spot prices have topped out. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

03:29 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD climbs to near $3,450 amid Israel-Iran conflict
The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to near $3,445 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal rises to over a one-month high due to escalating Middle East tensions and rising bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut.

02:38 Iran tells Qatar, Oman it won’t negotiate with US ‘while under attack’
Iran informed mediators Qatar and Oman that Tehran "will not negotiate while under attack," according to an official briefed on the negotiations, as Israel and Iran exchanged huge strikes.

02:25 AUD/USD extends downside below 0.6500 amid geopolitical risks
The AUD/USD pair weakens to 0.6485 during the early Asian session on Monday. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following an Israeli attack on Iran provide some support to the US Dollar (USD).

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Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East underpin the US Dollar and create a headwind for the pair. China’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be in the spotlight on Monday. The AUD/USD pair weakens to 0.6485 during the early Asian session on Monday. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following an Israeli attack on Iran provide some support to the US Dollar (USD). Later on Monday, investors brace for the release of China’s May Retail Sales and Industrial Production for fresh impetus. Israel started attacks on Iran on Friday, targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories and killing military leaders. Late Sunday, Iran launched a fresh attack on Israel, with an explosion seen in the coastal city of Haifa. Semi-official Iranian media outlet Mehr News reported on Sunday that the fourth phase of Iran’s operation against Israel has begun. Iranian officials underscored that they would “respond firmly to any adventurism” from Israel.Amid the rising geopolitical tensions, investors ignored the upbeat US economic data released on Friday. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 60.5 in June from 52.2 in the previous reading, the first improvement in six months. This reading came in better than the expectations.Investors will keep an eye on China’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production for May, which are due later on Monday. If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the China-proxy Aussie, as China is a major trading partner of Australia. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

02:02 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 1.2% to 0.8% in June
United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 1.2% to 0.8% in June

02:02 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to -0.3% in June
United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to -0.3% in June

01:58 Israel and Iran resume missile strikes as conflict escalates
Iran launched a fresh attack on Israel late Sunday, with an explosion seen in the coastal city of Haifa. Israel began further attacks on military targets in Iran, despite international calls for diplomacy and de-escalation, per CNN.

01:45 US President Donald Trump says US will continue to support Israel
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the United States will continue to support Israel, adding that he hopes there will be a deal between Iran and Israel but they have to fight it out.

01:31 New Zealand Business NZ PSI fell from previous 48.5 to 44 in May
New Zealand Business NZ PSI fell from previous 48.5 to 44 in May

01:14 South Korea Trade Balance remains unchanged at $6.94B in May
South Korea Trade Balance remains unchanged at $6.94B in May

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Forex News Timeline

21:25 NZD/USD holds firm near recent highs as China data, risk-on mood support Kiwi The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, bouncing back from Friday’s dip as broad US Dollar weakness and easing geopolitical jitters lift risk appetite.

21:00 Silver stalls as markets weigh Israel–Iran tensions and the US Dollar Silver prices are stalling above $36.00 on Monday, with bullish momentum taking a breather after a sharp multi-week rally.

20:29 Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounds on hope for easing Middle East tensions The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) found firmer footing on Monday, kicking off the new trading week on a high note and paring away most of the late-week losses that pushed indexes into the red last Friday.

20:09 USD/JPY steady as traders eye BoJ interest rate decision The Japanese Yen (JPY) is treading water against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as traders sit on the sidelines ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy announcement, scheduled for Tuesday.

20:05 United States 20-Year Bond Auction: 4.942% vs previous 5.047% United States 20-Year Bond Auction: 4.942% vs previous 5.047%

19:16 AUD/USD hits fresh YTD high on hopes of Israel-Iran de-escalation The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, buoyed by improved risk sentiment amid easing geopolitical tensions.

19:00 Trump urges Iran to negotiate, floats G7 shake-up US President Donald Trump said that "Iran is not winning this way," adding that they should talk "before it's too late." He said that Iranians want to talk about a de-escalation. He also delivered some trade comments focused on Canada.

17:50 EUR/USD extends gains as DXY slides to near three-year low, Empire State Index slumps The Euro (EUR) is climbing against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week, rebounding from Friday’s risk-off dip triggered by hostilities between Israel and Iran.

17:23 Oil Price Forecast: WTI eases as markets eye Israel-Iran conflict, hopes for de-escalation WTI Oil prices are easing on Monday, retracing part of Friday’s nearly 6% surge after slipping from the key $70 level, now holding as resistance.

17:03 Iran wants to de-escalate hostilities with Israel – WSJ The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Iran seeks talks with the United States (USD) and Israel and sends messages via Arab intermediaries to end hostilities, per Reuters.

16:08 Indian Rupee firms up as trade data, softer Oil prices offset geopolitical jitters The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, halting a two-day losing streak as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slips lower and fresh trade data boosts sentiment.

16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $687.3B vs $678.7B Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $687.3B vs $678.7B

15:55 Israel PM Netanyahu: We are telling citizens of Tehran to evacuate Israel's Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the Israeli air force is in control of the skies over Tehran, per Reuters.

15:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -16 below forecasts (-5.5) in June United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -16 below forecasts (-5.5) in June

15:24 USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range between 7.1770 and 7.1970 – UOB Group USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1770 and 7.1970. In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

15:19 Gold eases after hitting a two-month high amid escalating Israel-Iran hostilities Gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing a mild pullback during the European session after reaching a two-month high of $3,452.72 in the Asian session on Monday.

15:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) above forecasts (248K) in May: Actual (279.5K) Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) above forecasts (248K) in May: Actual (279.5K)

15:13 USD/JPY: BoJ is coming up next – OCBC Geopolitical escalation in Middle East saw safe haven proxies, including JPY strengthening last Friday. USD/JPY was last at 144.12 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

15:07 GBP flat into high risk week – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Monday’s NA session flat against the US Dollar (USD), a relative underperformer in an environment of modest risk appetite and mild USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:59 Copper prices are edging lower – ING Copper edged lower after China’s new-home prices fell the most in seven months, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

14:53 EUR up modestly, with focus on ECB/Fed outlook – Scotiabank Euro (EUR) is up 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, extending its recovery from last week’s geopolitically-driven pullback, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:51 NZD/USD surges to near 0.6040 as investors digest Middle East tensions The NZD/USD pair is up 0.5% to near 0.6040 during European trading hours on Monday. The Kiwi pair strengthens as demand for riskier assets has increased, while tensions between Israel and Iran remain intact.

14:46 Gold rises toward a record high – ING Gold is higher at the Monday open, getting closer to a fresh all-time high, with rising tensions in the Middle East fuelling haven demand, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

14:32 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD fails at $3,440 and approaches $3,400 support Gold (XAU/USD) is correcting lower after rejection at the $3,440 resistance area on Friday.

14:25 NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 0.5970/0.6080 for now – UOB Group New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.6000 and 0.6050. In the longer run, upward pressure has faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range of 0.5970/0.6080 for now.

14:20 Energy: Oil in focus – ING Oil extended gains on Monday morning as Israel-Iran attacks extended to a fourth day. On Saturday, Israel temporarily knocked out a natural gas processing facility linked to the South Pars field and targeted fuel storage tanks during strikes.

13:58 US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats below 98.00, weighed by a brighter market mood Friday’s US dollar recovery has been short-lived.

13:58 DXY: Rangebound for now – OCBC US Dollar (USD) remains a touch firmer amid geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran. DXY was last at 97.93 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

13:25 China: Consumption up, investment down – Standard Chartered Retail sales growth accelerated to a 17-month high in May on front-loaded policy support. Better sentiment after US-China tariff truce supported steady export and IP growth.

12:52 EU prepared to accept a flat 10% US tariff under clear conditions Handelsblatt, a German newspaper, reported on Monday that the European Commission is prepared to accept a flat-rate United States (US) tariff of 10% under clear conditions.

12:43 Iran’s Foreign Ministry: Parliament is preparing a bill to leave nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Esmaeil Baghaei, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Monday that the Iranian parliament is preparing a bill to leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

12:42 JPY: BoJ to hold, but hike chances underpriced – ING G10 central bank activity this week starts with the Bank of Japan, which is widely expected to keep rates at 0.5% overnight, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

12:37 EUR/USD: Expected to consolidate in a range of 1.1495/1.1600 – UOB Group Euro (EUR) is expected to consolidate in a range of 1.1495/1.1600. EUR surged to 1.1631 last Thursday.

12:34 GBP/USD: Pullback is on the cards – OCBC Pound Sterling (GBP) eased further as escalation in geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiments. Pair was last at 1.3583 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:27 Indian Trade Ministry: India and US aiming to sign interim deal before July 9 An official from the Indian Trade Ministry said on Monday that “India and US are aiming to sign interim deal before July 9.”

12:24 EUR: Peak central bank action in Europe – ING The eurozone’s dependence on energy price exports should put a curb on EUR/USD upside in our view, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

12:18 Israel: Destroyed more than one-third of Iran's missile launchers A spokesperson for the Israeli military said on Monday that they have “destroyed more than one-third of Iran's surface-to-surface missile launchers.”

12:00 Eurozone Labor Cost Index registered at 3.4% above expectations (3.2%) in 1Q Eurozone Labor Cost Index registered at 3.4% above expectations (3.2%) in 1Q

11:50 EUR/GBP rises above 0.8500 as Israel-Hamas tensions ease EUR/GBP gains ground after registering little losses in the previous session, trading around 0.8530 during the European hours on Monday.

11:30 USD/CAD approaches YTD lows at 1.3565 after failure at 1.3600 The USD/CAD recovery attempt seen during Monday’s early trade has failed to find acceptance above 1.3600.

11:02 Turkey Budget Balance increased to 235.2B in May from previous -174.7B Turkey Budget Balance increased to 235.2B in May from previous -174.7B

11:01 Pound Sterling wobbles against US Dollar at the start of Fed-BoE monetary policy week The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks up to near 1.3590 against the US Dollar (USD) so far on Monday, remaining inside Friday’s trading range.

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (1.7%) in May: Actual (1.6%) Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (1.7%) in May: Actual (1.6%)

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in May Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in May

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) came in at 1.7% below forecasts (1.9%) in May Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) came in at 1.7% below forecasts (1.9%) in May

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) below expectations (0.1%) in May: Actual (-0.1%) Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) below expectations (0.1%) in May: Actual (-0.1%)

10:57 Forex Today: Markets focus on geopolitics as Iran-Israel conflict deepens Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 16:

10:46 EUR/USD regains lost ground as fears about the Middle East conflict ease The EUR/USD pair is trading with moderate advances on Monday, extending its recovery after Friday’s reversal, following Israel’s attack on Iran.

10:30 ECB’s Nagel: It is not sensible to signal either pause or rate cut for the time being European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is delivering a speech titled "Goal achieved - no reason to give up" in Frankfurt, Germany, on Monday.

10:18 FX option expiries for Jun 16 NY cut FX option expiries for Jun 16 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

10:04 US Dollar Index holds steady above 98.00 on heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a flat note near 98.15 during the early European session on Monday.

10:01 Turkey Current Account Balance dipped from previous $-4.087B to $-7.864B in April Turkey Current Account Balance dipped from previous $-4.087B to $-7.864B in April

09:34 India WPI Inflation registered at 0.39%, below expectations (0.8%) in May India WPI Inflation registered at 0.39%, below expectations (0.8%) in May

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in May Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in May

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY): -0.7% (May) vs previous -0.5% Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY): -0.7% (May) vs previous -0.5%

09:16 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $71.80 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $71.61.

09:08 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Key upside barrier emerges near 166.50 The EUR/JPY cross extends its upside to around 166.50 during the early European trading hours on Monday. A generally positive tone around the equity markets weighs on the safe-haven currency like the Japanese Yen (JPY).

08:33 GBP/JPY struggles to break above 196.00 ahead of BoJ-BoE monetary policy The GBP/JPY pair struggles to extend its upside above 196.00 from the last three trading sessions. During Asian trading hours on Monday, the cross has faced pressure near 196.00 again and has ticked down to near 195.50.

08:26 US-China trade truce leaves military-use rare earth issue unresolved The renewed US-China trade truce struck in London left a key area of export restrictions tied to national security untouched, an unresolved conflict that threatens a more comprehensive deal, per Reuters.

08:12 ECB's de Guindos: EUR/USD exchange rate at 1.15 is no big obstacle on inflation target European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday that the exchange rate of EUR/USD at 1.15 is no big obstacle on the inflation target.

08:04 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Ascending channel favors bulls ahead of the key central bank event risk The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias below mid-1.1500s through the Asian session on Monday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, though it lacks bearish conviction.

07:39 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:29 Gold price consolidates recent strong gains to the highest level since April Gold price (XAU/USD) retreated slightly from its highest level since April 22, touched during the Asian session this Monday, though any meaningful corrective slide seems elusive.

06:00 South Korea Money Supply Growth: 5.8% (April) vs 4.9% South Korea Money Supply Growth: 5.8% (April) vs 4.9%

05:58 Japanese Yen remains on the back foot ahead of the crucial BoJ policy meeting The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower for the second straight day on Monday, pushing the USD/JPY pair to the 144.75 area during the Asian session, albeit lacking follow-through.

05:50 NBS: In H1 2025, China’s economy is expected to have remained generally stable Following the release of the top-tier China’s May activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expressed its outlook on the economy during its press conference on Monday.

05:24 Australian Dollar steadies following mixed economic data from China The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued for the second consecutive session due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

05:02 China’s May Retail Sales rise 6.4%, Industrial Production up 5.8% China’s April Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-over-year (YoY) vs. 5.0% expected and 5.1% in April, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday.

05:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 5.8%, below expectations (5.9%) in May China Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 5.8%, below expectations (5.9%) in May

05:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 6.4% above expectations (5%) in May China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 6.4% above expectations (5%) in May

05:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 3.7% below forecasts (3.9%) in May China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 3.7% below forecasts (3.9%) in May

04:44 WTI extends upside above $72.00 as Israel-Iran conflict deepens West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.15 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

04:31 China House Price Index : -3.5% (May) vs -4% China House Price Index : -3.5% (May) vs -4%

04:25 Israel has detected another wave of ballistic missile launches from Iran Iran fired multiple waves of ballistic missiles toward Israel. Impacts are expected within the next few minutes.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1789 vs. 7.1772 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1789 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1772 and 7.1854 Reuters estimate.

04:02 BoJ to consider halving JGB taper pace from 2026 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is considering reducing the pace of its Japanese government bond (JGB) tapering by half, beginning in April 2026, per the Japan News.

04:01 GBP/USD consolidates around mid-1.3500s ahead of this week’s key data/central bank event risks The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive below a three-year top touched on Friday, though it lacks bearish conviction and oscillates in a narrow band around mid-1.3500s during the Asian session.

02:38 Iran tells Qatar, Oman it won’t negotiate with US ‘while under attack’ Iran informed mediators Qatar and Oman that Tehran "will not negotiate while under attack," according to an official briefed on the negotiations, as Israel and Iran exchanged huge strikes.