Forex News Timeline

07:14 Gold price faces rejection near $3,400 amid some USD buying; lacks follow-through
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following an Asian session uptick to levels just above the $3,400 mark and turns lower for the second straight day on Tuesday. A modest US Dollar (USD) uptick is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity.

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Geopolitical risks and Fed rate cut bets act as a tailwind for the non-yielding commodity.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following an Asian session uptick to levels just above the $3,400 mark and turns lower for the second straight day on Tuesday. A modest US Dollar (USD) uptick is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity. The downside, however, seems limited amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates further in 2025. Meanwhile, an aerial war between Israel and Iran enters its fifth day, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict in the Middle East. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should contribute to limiting losses for the safe-haven Gold price. Traders might also opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday before placing fresh directional bets around the non-yielding yellow metal. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls seem reluctant amid modest USD uptick; downside seems cushionedIsrael struck Iran’s state-run television station on Monday, while Iran said that it is preparing for the largest and the most intense missile attack in history on Israeli soil. US President Donald Trump left the G7 Summit a day early because of the Middle East situation and has requested the National Security Council to convene in the Situation Room.Three tankers are reportedly on fire in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns of a possible repeat of the 2019 attacks attributed to Iran. This raises the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and assists the safe-haven Gold price to gain some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar edges higher amid repositioning trades ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting starting later today and acts as a headwind for the precious metal. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain the status quo and keep its benchmark rate unchanged amid concern that Trump's tariffs could push up consumer prices.Meanwhile, the USD uptick lacks bullish conviction on the back of rising bets that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. Hence, the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized closely for cues about the future rate-cut path. This, in turn, will help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD and the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Iran-Israel conflict might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven commodity. Gold price is more likely to attract dip-buyers near the lower ascending channel boundaryFrom a technical perspective, the formation of an ascending channel points to a well-established short-term uptrend. Adding to this, positive oscillators on the daily chart back the case for the emergence of dip-buying, which should help limit the downside for the Gold price near the $3,340-3,335 area, or the lower boundary of the trend channel. A convincing break below the latter would negate any near-term positive outlook and shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. On the flip side, the $3,400 round figure now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, above which the Gold price could climb to the $3,434-3,435 region. Some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the $3,451-3,452 area, or the multi-week top touched on Monday, should allow the Gold price to challenge the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April. The said handle coincides with the ascending channel barrier, which if cleared would pave the way for a further appreciating move. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:02 G7 statement says Iran can never have a nuclear weapon - AFP
G7 leaders attending a summit in Canada issue a joint statement calling for “de-escalation” on Iran. The G7 statement said that members have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.

06:55 AUD/JPY pares gains near 94.50 as BOJ holds rates steady
The AUD/JPY cross trims gains near 94.50 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision. Investors will closely monitor the BoJ Press Conference later on Tuesday.

06:46 EUR/JPY holds position near 167.50 after BoJ interest rate decision
EUR/JPY continues its winning streak that began on June 5, trading around 167.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair has marked 167.59, the highest since July 2024.

06:31 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.5%)
Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.5%)

05:53 NZD/USD remains steady near 0.6050 following Food Price Index data
NZD/USD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 0.6060 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. However, the pair moved little after the Food Price Index data was released by Statistics New Zealand.

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However, the pair moved little after the Food Price Index data was released by Statistics New Zealand.The annual food inflation in New Zealand climbed to 4.4% in May, from April’s 3.7% rise. The inflation has reached its highest level since December 2023, which further pressures household budgets. Meanwhile, the monthly food prices rose to 0.5%, from a 0.8% increase in April. The persistent food inflation could influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy outlook.The risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained ground as investors scaled back risk-off positions due to the possibility diminution of the Israel-Iran conflict. The shift in sentiment emerged after Iran reportedly asked many countries, including Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, to urge US President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel for an immediate ceasefire, per Reuters.Traders are closely watching for updates from the United States (US) following the recent posts from President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran, hours after urging the country's leaders to accept a deal to limit its nuclear program, as Israel hinted that attacks would continue, per Bloomberg.Trump posted in a social media post, “Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign.” “What a shame, and a waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran.” New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

05:17 Japanese Yen struggles to lure buyers; looks to BoJ policy update for fresh impetus
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the back foot against its American counterpart for the third consecutive day on Tuesday amid expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could postpone the rate hike to Q1 next year due to uncertainty over US tariff policy.

05:13 Australian Dollar weakens due to market caution amid ongoing geopolitical tensions
The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, retracing its recent gains registered in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair faces challenges as traders adopt caution amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

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The AUD/USD pair faces challenges as traders adopt caution amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.However, the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair gained ground due to optimism after Iran reportedly asked many countries, including Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, to urge US President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel for an immediate ceasefire, per Reuters. Moreover, risk sentiment improved as the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had agreed with Trump that their two nations should try to wrap up a deal on tariffs within 30 days.Traders await Australia’s upcoming labor data this week, including Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, which are expected to offer fresh impetus on the strength of the domestic economy and shape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook.Australian Dollar declines as US Dollar edges higher due to risk aversionThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading higher at around 98.20 at the time of writing. The US Retail Sales data for May will be eyed on Tuesday. The focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision, due on Wednesday.On Monday, President Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital, Tehran, hours after urging the country's leaders to accept a deal to limit its nuclear program, as Israel hinted that attacks would continue, per Bloomberg.Trump posted in a social media post, “What a shame, and a waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran. Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign.”The University of Michigan (UoM) reported on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 60.5 in June from 52.2 prior. This reading came in above the market consensus of 53.5.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 0.1% month-over-month in May, compared to a decline of 0.2% (revised from -0.5%). This reading came in softer than the expected 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1% MoM in May versus -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%), below the consensus of 0.3%.The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged within the 4.25%–4.50% range in its upcoming decision on Wednesday. Traders now expect a 25 basis point rate cut by September.Reuters reported Thursday that President Trump expanded steel tariffs starting June 23 on imported “steel derivative products,” including household appliances, such as dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. The tariffs were initially imposed at 25% in March and later doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time the scope of affected products has been expanded.China Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, surpassing the 5.0% expected and April’s 5.1% increase. Meanwhile, Industrial Production increased 5.8% YoY, but came in below the 5.9% forecast and 6.1% prior.Moreover, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China noted that the domestic economy is expected to have remained generally stable for the first half (H1) of 2025. However, economic growth in China may struggle since the second quarter due to uncertain trade policies.Australian Dollar falls to near nine-day EMA, tests 0.6500AUD/USD is trading around 0.6510 on Tuesday. The bullish bias prevails, as the daily chart’s technical analysis indicates that the pair remains within the ascending channel. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, suggesting a prevailing bullish outlook. Additionally, the pair is positioned above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is stronger.The pair may target the fresh seven-month high of 0.6552, which was reached on June 16. A break above this level could support the pair to target the eight-month high at 0.6687, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6730.On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may test the nine-day EMA at 0.6506, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6470. A break below the channel would indicate the weakening of the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6431.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.05% 0.04% 0.06% 0.04% 0.05% -0.06% 0.00% EUR -0.05% -0.03% 0.03% -0.03% 0.03% -0.02% -0.06% GBP -0.04% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% -0.04% -0.03% JPY -0.06% -0.03% 0.00% -0.03% -0.02% -0.11% -0.08% CAD -0.04% 0.03% -0.00% 0.03% -0.06% -0.01% -0.03% AUD -0.05% -0.03% -0.06% 0.02% 0.06% -0.07% -0.09% NZD 0.06% 0.02% 0.04% 0.11% 0.01% 0.07% -0.02% CHF -0.01% 0.06% 0.03% 0.08% 0.03% 0.09% 0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:47 WTI extends upside above $70.50 ahead of US Retail Sales release
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.60 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher amid persistent geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

04:22 Japan’s Kato says no plan for talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent at present
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that he has no fixed plan right now to hold further talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1746 vs. 7.1789 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1746 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1789 and 7.1820 Reuters estimate.

03:55 US and Japan fail to reach trade deal at G-7 summit
US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to reach a trade agreement on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit, per Bloomberg.

03:45 Iranian state broadcaster hit as Iran urges Trump to make Israel stop war - Reuters
On Monday, an Israeli attack targeted Iran's state broadcaster, while the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog reported substantial damage to Iran's largest uranium enrichment facility, and Iran urged the United States (US) to force a ceasefire in the aerial war, per Reuters.

03:27 USD/CAD drifts higher above 1.3550 on firmer US Dollar
The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground to around 1.3580 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as investors monitor the conflict between Israel and Iran for signs it could escalate into a broader regional conflict.

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Persistent Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to support the US Dollar. Traders await the US May Retail Sales data later on Tuesday for fresh impetus. The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground to around 1.3580 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as investors monitor the conflict between Israel and Iran for signs it could escalate into a broader regional conflict. Investors have been closely watching the developments surrounding geopolitical risks after Israel’s strike on Iran on Friday. The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to underpin the Greenback in the near term. Nonetheless, there was some optimism on Monday that the situation wouldn’t escalate after Iran reportedly asked several countries, including Saudi Arabia, to urge US President Donald Trump to put pressure on Israel for an immediate ceasefire. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday that he had agreed with Trump that their two nations should try to wrap up a deal on tariffs within 30 days. On the other hand, extended gains in Crude Oil prices might boost the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. The US May Retail Sales data will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the attention will shift to the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Based on the latest US inflation data, traders now see a nearly 80% possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, followed by another one in October, according to Reuters. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

02:56 Carney and Trump commit to reaching new trade agreement within 30 days - Reuters
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday that he had agreed with US President Donald Trump that their two nations should try to wrap up a deal on tariffs within 30 days, per Reuters.

02:50 GBP/USD hangs out near highs ahead of double-header central bank rate calls
GBP/USD continues to churn chart paper on the high end of 40-month peaks, cycling the 1.3600 region as Cable traders enjoy a continued boost. Greenback flows continue to wither across the board on geopolitical headlines, keeping the Pound Sterling buoyed as dual central bank rate calls loom ahead.

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Greenback flows continue to wither across the board on geopolitical headlines, keeping the Pound Sterling buoyed as dual central bank rate calls loom ahead.The Israel-Iran conflict continues to spill over, with both sides launching missile strikes at various targets and the Trump administration weighing the concept of getting involved directly in the altercation. Broad-market investor sentiment is banking on the two sides reaching some sort of peace arrangement before the altercation boils over into the surrounding region.The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) are both set to release their latest interest rate decisions; both central banks are expected to stand pat on interest rates, but the reactions from their government officials are expected to be wildly different.US President Donald Trump has gotten increasingly vocal about his wishlist to have the Fed start dropping interest rates, even as Fed policymakers hold in their “wait and see” stance as officials brace for economic fallout from Trump’s whipsaw tariff “strategy”. The BoE is likewise expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%, but no meaningful shifts in policy stances, or complaints about them, are expected. The Fed reveals its latest rate call on Wednesday, with the BoE slated for early Thursday.GBP/USD price forecastDespite cracking the ceiling and pushing into fresh multi-year peaks, GBP/USD is still too close to recent congestion for bulls to declare outright victory just yet. Cable could be poised for a fresh technical pullback, which would put price action on pace to fall back into a still-rising trendline from January’s lows near 1.2100. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:43 US President Donald Trump calls for Tehran evacuation - Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital Tehran on Monday, hours after urging the country's leaders to accept a deal to curb its nuclear program as Israel hinted that attacks would continue, per Bloomberg

02:00 Bank of Japan set to hold rates steady as officials mull halving the pace of tapering JGB purchases
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to leave the short-term interest rate unadjusted at 0.5% after the two-day June monetary policy review ends on Tuesday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of Japan is set to keep interest rates steady at 0.50% on Tuesday.The focus will be on the BoJ’s JGB purchases tapering plan as well as any hints on the timing of the next rate hike.The BoJ policy announcements are expected to significantly impact the Japanese Yen.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to leave the short-term interest rate unadjusted at 0.5% after the two-day June monetary policy review ends on Tuesday.In the absence of quarterly economic projections, all eyes will be on the BoJ’s plans on tapering its Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases and hints on the timing of the next interest rate hike. The BoJ policy announcements will likely stir volatility around the Japanese Yen (JPY).What to expect from the BoJ interest rate decision?The BoJ is set to extend the pause in its rate-hiking cycle into the third consecutive month in June, maintaining the policy rate at the highest level in 17 years.At its April 30-May 1 policy meeting, the Japanese central bank stuck to its rhetoric that it “will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts.”The bank also referred to the more volatile outlook due to US trade policy: “Uncertainty around tariff impact on the economy remains high even after tariffs are finalized.”Since then, trade tensions have eased, courtesy of the US-China truce and the prospects of US trade agreements with Japan and the European Union (EU)."If trade negotiations between countries proceed and uncertainty over trade policies diminish, overseas economies will resume a moderate growth path. That, in turn, will accelerate Japan's economic growth," Ueda said in a speech earlier this month, keeping hopes alive for another rate hike by year-end.Therefore, markets expect the BoJ Chief Ueda to lean slightly hawkish while speaking on the interest rate outlook during the post-policy meeting press conference at 6.30 GMT.Additionally, concerns over sticky food inflation, especially due to the rising costs of Japan’s staple rice, could prompt Ueda to deliver the hawkish message.“Japan was now experiencing a second round of food price inflation driven by supply shocks, which adds to inflationary momentum from higher wages,” Ueda said previously.Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation exceeded the BoJ's 2% target for over three years and hit a more than two-year high of 3.5% in April due largely to a 7% spike in food prices, per Reuters.Apart from the BoJ’s communication on the next interest rate move, markets will also closely scrutinize the central bank’s assessment of the bank’s current JGB tapering plan of JPY400 billion per quarter.According to a report carried by the Nikkei Asian Review last Saturday, the BoJ is considering halving the pace of quarterly tapering in its purchases of JGB to JPY200 billion ($1.4 billion) from April 2026.The BoJ’s tapering plan is expected to be supported by a majority of the policy board members, the Nikkei added.The potential reduction to the central bank’s tapering plan remains critical in light of the recent bond market turmoil when the yields on 40-year JGBs hit all-time highs.How could the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision affect USD/JPY?The USD/JPY pair continues to trade in a 250-pips familiar range at around 144.00 in the run-up to the BoJ event risk.If the BoJ maintains its rhetoric of remaining data-dependent and following the meeting-by-meeting approach for a policy move, the Japanese Yen (JPY) could come under intense selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD), driving USD/JPY back toward the 146.50 static resistance.Conversely, USD/JPY could resume its downtrend toward 142.00 if the BoJ voices concerns over stubborn rises in food costs and acknowledges easing trade tensions. The BoJ’s hawkish tilt could ramp up the odds of another rate hike by the turn of this year, triggering a fresh JPY rally.Any big reaction to the BoJ policy announcements could be temporary as Governor Ueda’s press conference could inject fresh volatility around the pair.From a technical perspective, Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The current market positioning suggests the USD/JPY remains exposed to two-way risks ahead of the BoJ’s decision. The pair is battling the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA confluence near the 144.00 region, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) challenging the midline to regain the bullish territory.”“A hawkish BoJ hold could provide a fresh leg to the USD/JPY downtrend, with the strong support area near 142.50 likely at risk. The next cushion is seen at the April 29 low at around 142.00. A decisive move below that level will target the 140.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, buyers need acceptance above the 145.00 round level to revive the uptrend toward the May 29 high of 146.29. Further up, the 100-day SMA at 147.24 will come into play,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 17, 2025 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 0.5% Previous: 0.5% Source: Bank of Japan Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

01:12 NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Surges above key resistance near 88.00
The NZD/JPY rallied sharply and posted gains of over 1%, trading at 87.69 after bouncing off daily lows of 86.56, clearing key technical resistance levels, as the pair seems poised to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high of 89.71.

00:18 EUR/USD rebounds as risk appetite returns despite Iran-Israel clash
EUR/USD recovered after posting a loss of 0.25% last Friday, as hostilities between Israel and Iran began, which boosted the Greenback’s appeal.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD climbs to 1.1572 as market shrugs off new missile attacks on Israel.Fed’s dovish shift in sentiment follows weak US Empire State Manufacturing data.ECB officials speak as traders await Fed’s June 18 policy decision and projections.EUR/USD recovered after posting a loss of 0.25% last Friday, as hostilities between Israel and Iran began, which boosted the Greenback’s appeal. Nevertheless, with both parties set to continue exchanging blows and a slightly diminished risk of turning into a regional conflict, an improvement in risk appetite underpins the shared currency.The EUR/USD trades at 1.1572, up 0.17%, after reaching a daily low of 1.1523. The Greenback trades on the back foot. A scarce economic docket in the United States (US) revealed that manufacturing activity in the New York area plunged to its weakest reading since March’s two-year low, indicating the ongoing economic slowdown.Meanwhile, the majority of the news headlines are focused on the Israel-Iran conflict, which is set to continue despite the White House exerting pressure on Tehran to reach a deal. Iranian state TV announced that a new wave of Iranian missile attacks on Israel has begun, targeting Tel Aviv and Haifa.Earlier, the Eurozone (EU) economic docket featured speakers from the European Central Bank (ECB), led by Vice-President Luis de Guindos and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. Other data showed that S&P affirmed Germany's creditworthiness at ‘AAA’ rating with a stable outlook.Market mood improved even though the Middle East conflict continued. Traders are watching the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision on June 18, followed by the press conference of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Alongside this, Fed officials would update their economic projections, which would be crucial in setting the path of monetary policy and could influence the direction of the EUR/USD.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD recovers as market sentiment improvesDespite retreating, EUR/USD appears poised to resume its uptrend as ECB officials have become slightly hawkish, and news has emerged that US-China talks could provide relief for investors. Nonetheless, an escalation of the Israel-Iran war exerts downward pressure on the pair.ECB’s De Guindos commented that the EUR/USD at 1.15 is not a big obstacle, as appreciation is not rapid and volatility is not extreme. He said that markets understood the ECB’s stance that the bank is close to target. He added that the risk of undershooting inflation is minimal and that risks of inflation are balanced.ECB’s Nagel said that it is not sensible to signal either a rate pause or cut, given the exceptional uncertainty.The New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index in June plummeted by 16 points, down from May’s -5.5 contraction, painting a gloomy economic outlook for the New York region.On Tuesday, US Retail Sales for May are expected to show a contraction of -0.7%, down from April’s 0.1% growth, as revealed by the US Census Bureau. If the data comes as expected, sales will dip to their second-lowest level after February’s -0.9% MoM reading.On June 17-18, the Fed will host its latest monetary policy meeting. Traders have priced in that rates would remain unchanged, but they’re eyeing the update of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).Across the pond, the EU economic docket will feature the ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment for June, which is projected to rise from 11.6 in May to 23.5 MoM.Financial market players do not expect that the ECB will reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the July monetary policy meeting.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD hovers above 1.1550, clings to gainsThe EUR/USD uptrend remains in place, though it is facing stiff resistance at 1.1600. Buyers' reluctance to decisively clear the latter has opened the door for a retracement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a lack of commitment among buyers, as the RSI, despite being bullish, dips toward its neutral line.If EUR/USD drops below 1.1550, the next support level would be 1.1500. If surpassed, the next stop would be the 1.1450 figure, followed by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1386.On the flip side, if EUR/USD holds above 1.1550, buyers could drive the exchange rate to 1.1614, the June 16 peak, ahead of 1.1600 to test the year-to-date (YTD) high at 1.1631. Up next lies 1.1700. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

00:00 South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) declined to -2.4% in May from previous 0.7%
South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) declined to -2.4% in May from previous 0.7%

00:00 South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY): -5% (May) vs previous -2.3%
South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY): -5% (May) vs previous -2.3%

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Forex News Timeline

07:02 G7 statement says Iran can never have a nuclear weapon - AFP G7 leaders attending a summit in Canada issue a joint statement calling for “de-escalation” on Iran. The G7 statement said that members have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.

06:46 EUR/JPY holds position near 167.50 after BoJ interest rate decision EUR/JPY continues its winning streak that began on June 5, trading around 167.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair has marked 167.59, the highest since July 2024.

06:31 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.5%) Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.5%)

05:53 NZD/USD remains steady near 0.6050 following Food Price Index data NZD/USD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 0.6060 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. However, the pair moved little after the Food Price Index data was released by Statistics New Zealand.

04:47 WTI extends upside above $70.50 ahead of US Retail Sales release West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.60 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher amid persistent geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

04:22 Japan’s Kato says no plan for talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent at present Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that he has no fixed plan right now to hold further talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1746 vs. 7.1789 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1746 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1789 and 7.1820 Reuters estimate.

03:55 US and Japan fail to reach trade deal at G-7 summit US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to reach a trade agreement on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit, per Bloomberg.

02:56 Carney and Trump commit to reaching new trade agreement within 30 days - Reuters Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday that he had agreed with US President Donald Trump that their two nations should try to wrap up a deal on tariffs within 30 days, per Reuters.

02:00 Bank of Japan set to hold rates steady as officials mull halving the pace of tapering JGB purchases The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to leave the short-term interest rate unadjusted at 0.5% after the two-day June monetary policy review ends on Tuesday.

00:18 EUR/USD rebounds as risk appetite returns despite Iran-Israel clash EUR/USD recovered after posting a loss of 0.25% last Friday, as hostilities between Israel and Iran began, which boosted the Greenback’s appeal.

00:00 South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) declined to -2.4% in May from previous 0.7% South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) declined to -2.4% in May from previous 0.7%

00:00 South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY): -5% (May) vs previous -2.3% South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY): -5% (May) vs previous -2.3%

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