ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:03 White House announces slew of "new" deals across AI and energy sectors
Staff from the Trump administration have been hard at work on Thursday, pushing a raft of announcements on a wide range of investment projects with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that President Trump has been pursuing hard since taking office in January.

The Trump administration announced a wide array of new deals on Thursday.Despite the overall upbeat sentiment from White House sources, most deals appear to have already existed or been in the works prior to January.The specific dollar amounts of the announced deals, and how they were calculated, remains unclear.Staff from the Trump administration have been hard at work on Thursday, pushing a raft of announcements on a wide range of investment projects with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that President Trump has been pursuing hard since taking office in January. As is usual for announcements from several faces of the White House team, specific details remain thin, and it remains unclear what kind of timeline these announced projects are expected to take, or how they'll even be accomplished.According to the US Commerce Department, the United Arab Emirates and the US government have agreed on an "AI acceleration partnership agreement". This comes hot on the heels of a freshly-inked deal between OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, and the Saudi government to begin building and operating large-scale data centers in Saudi Arabia, overseen by the new AI investment arm of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, dubbed Humain. Humain is overseen by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who also oversees the Neom project to build a 'linear smart city', which was initially expected to be 200 meters wide and 170 kilometers long.A lot of deals announced, but new benefits to US economy not immediately clearThe White House also re-announced that President Trump had 'secured' nearly $200B in US-UAE deals, but it remains unclear what the specifics of these deals are related to. It was also announced that Donald Trump had 'accelerated' the UAE's recent agreement to invest 1.4T in the US economy over ten years. Taking into account the ten year timeline, this agreement would mean the UAE would be investing 27% of its entire national Gross Domestic Product on an annual basis in US business ventures. How President Trump and the UAE intend to accomplish this feat of financial mathematics remains to seen or explained.According to a White House fact sheets, Amazon Web Services and the UAE Cybersecurity Council have agreed to launch a "sovereign cloud launchpad". The Trump administration does not appear to be aware that Amazon is developing this project for the UAE's digital projects.The White House fact sheet also went on to highlight a new arrangement between Raytheon, Emirate's Global Aluminum, and the Tawazun Industrial Park Council on a gallium critical minerals deal, which is meant to provide critical materials to the RTX facility that is producing the Coyote counter-drone interceptor in the UAE.The White House also re-announced an agreement between Boeing, GE Aerospace, and the UAE, which appears to be part of a decade-long deal initially agreed to by the three parties in October of 2024. The White House also announced a deal between ExxonMobil and several UAE energy companies to expand oil and natural gas production in the UAE.Finally, Trump administration staff also announced that the EGA would be investing 4B to develop an aluminum project in Oklahoma. This appears to be tied to one of three purchases of American refining businesses the UAE had already been exploring since 2024, and mostly involves the UAE acquiring US-founded businesses that are already operational.

22:58 Gold price skyrockets on soft US data, falling US yields and geopolitical jitters
Gold price rallied sharply on Thursday after hitting a weekly low of $3,120, posting solid gains of over 1.40%, boosted by broad US Dollar weakness due to a nifty Producer Price Index (PPI) report in the United States (US).

22:27 NZD/USD dips as cautious Fed tone and weak NZ backdrop pressure pair
The NZD/USD is trading around the 0.5900 level on Thursday, facing renewed pressure amid cautious investor sentiment and diverging macroeconomic signals.

The pair trades near the 0.5900 zone after slipping 0.40%, pressured by softer New Zealand outlook and steady US Dollar.US PPI and Retail Sales missed expectations, but Fed’s Powell struck a cautious tone supporting Greenback stability.Technical bias is bearish; support at 0.5860 and 0.5846, resistance at 0.5878 and 0.5884.The NZD/USD is trading around the 0.5900 level on Thursday, facing renewed pressure amid cautious investor sentiment and diverging macroeconomic signals. Despite softer-than-expected inflation and retail sales data in the US, comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered enough reassurance to keep the Greenback on stable footing. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar struggled to gain traction amid local fiscal announcements that failed to inspire a bullish response.US data released on Thursday showed the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising 2.4% annually in April, below expectations of 2.5%, while Retail Sales increased just 0.1%, falling short of broader market hopes. These releases added to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve could begin easing rates later in 2025. However, in his remarks at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Powell highlighted the need to revisit the Fed’s policy framework in light of persistent supply shocks, reaffirming a measured and patient approach to rate changes. This neutral stance helped the US Dollar recover from intraday losses and limited downside momentum.In contrast, New Zealand’s economic narrative remains soft. Finance Minister Nicola Willis unveiled a NZ$190 million social investment fund, aimed at improving long-term outcomes for vulnerable groups. While the initiative underscores fiscal discipline and targeted intervention, it had limited immediate impact on NZD sentiment. Market focus now shifts to Thursday evening’s Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index and Friday’s RBNZ inflation expectations survey, both of which may shape expectations for future rate decisions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.NZD/USD technical outook
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD maintains a bearish bias, with the pair slipping toward the mid-point of the daily range between 0.5860 and 0.5916. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 40s, showing weak momentum, while the MACD prints a sell signal. Additional neutral signals from the Stochastic %K, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Bull Bear Power suggest a lack of conviction for a rebound. Short-term indicators including the 10-day EMA and 20-day SMA reinforce downside pressure, while only the 100-day SMA offers modest bullish support.Key support levels are seen at 0.5860, 0.5846, and 0.5829, while resistance lies near 0.5878, 0.5883, and 0.5884. Unless upcoming New Zealand data surprises to the upside, the pair may continue drifting lower as investors favor the relative safety of the US Dollar in a cautious macro environment.

22:03 Banxico cuts rates by 50-basis points as expected, to 8.50%
On Thursday, Banco de Mexico (Banxico) reduced interest rates by 50 baisis points from 9% to 8.50% on an unanimous vote.

22:00 Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (8.5%)
Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (8.5%)

21:57 Forex Today: US, Japan data gathers attention
The US Dollar resumed its downward trajectory on Thursday, weighed by another soft inflation print—this time from Producer Prices—and a mixed batch of US economic data.

The US Dollar resumed its downward trajectory on Thursday, weighed by another soft inflation print—this time from Producer Prices—and a mixed batch of US economic data. Meanwhile, doubts continue to build around the durability of the recently announced US–China trade agreement.Here’s what to watch on Friday, May 16: Sellers regained control and prompted the US Dollar Index (DXY) to resume its weekly downtrend, this time accompanied by declining US yields across the board. The day’s data slate includes Building Permits, Housing Starts, Import and Export Prices, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, and Net TIC Flows. Fed official Thomas Barkin is also scheduled to speak. EUR/USD ended Thursday’s session barely changing from the previous day’s closing around 1.1180 after failing to sustain the earlier bull run to the 1.12430 zone. Focus now shifts to eurozone Inflation Rate, with the final print due on May 19. GBP/USD rose strongly and reclaimed the area beyond the 1.3300 hurdle in response to auspicious results from UK fundamentals and the softer Greenback. The Inflation Rate release on May 21 will be the next key data on the UK calendar. USD/JPY retreated for the third consecutive day, hitting weekly troughs around the 145.50 zone. Next on tap in Japan will be the flash Q1 GDP and Industrial Production. In addition, the BoJ's Nakamura is due to speak. AUD/USD added to Wednesday’s downtick and flirted with the 0.6400 neighbourhood, where it seems to have met some decent contention. Market participants will look to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting on May 20 for direction. WTI crude traded lower and approached the key $60.00 mark per barrel as speculation over a possible breakthrough in US–Iran nuclear negotiations weighed on prices and sentiment in the energy complex. Gold rebounded to the area above the $3,200 mark per troy ounce, buoyed by the softer US Dollar and rising expectations of Fed easing later in the year. Silver prices followed suit, rebounding to the $32.50 zone per ounce after a brief drop the vicinity of $31.60 per ounce.

21:55 GBP/JPY slides as Yen firms on risk aversion with Japan GDP in focus
GBP/JPY is under pressure on Thursday as safe-haven demand drives renewed strength in the Japanese Yen (JPY).

21:48 Canadian Dollar middles as Loonie flows get pulled in both directions
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) went nowhere fast on Thursday, with the Loonie struggling to find momentum on either side.

21:22 Fed's Barr: The US economy is on solid footing, though trade policies cloud the outlook
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Michael Barr spoke at the New York Fed's Small Business Credit Symposium on Thursday, noting that although the United States (US) economy is maintaining a solid stance according to the data, dark clouds caused by the Trump adminsitration's lopsided tra

Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Michael Barr spoke at the New York Fed's Small Business Credit Symposium on Thursday, noting that although the United States (US) economy is maintaining a solid stance according to the data, dark clouds caused by the Trump adminsitration's lopsided trade strategy makes it difficult for the Fed to make moves.The Fed's Barr noted that high tariffs expose US businesses, particularly small businesses, to significant downside risks. Barr highlighted that the US could be poised to suffer trade shocks at the hands of President Trump's overabundance of import taxes, and could re-ignite inflation if supply chains destabilize, or businesses begin to buckle and fail under a rapid increase of untenable costs pushing firms into unprofitability.Key highlightsUS economy on a solid footing with inflation heading to 2%, though trade policies have clouded the outlook.

Trade shock could be particularly hard on small businesses and trigger price increases if supply chains are affected or firms fail.

21:12 WTI Crude consolidates near $61 after sharp drop, pressured by rising stockpiles and Iran outlook
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remains under pressure on Thursday, trading near $61.20 during the American session after declining for a second straight day. The commodity briefly fell over 3% earlier in the day before finding near-term support at the $60.00 psychological level.

WTI trades lower near $61.20 on Thursday, pressured by rising US stockpiles and renewed hopes for an Iran deal.Price finds interim support at $60.00 after falling over 3% intraday, with recovery capped at the 21-day EMA.Broader range holds between $55.50 and $64.00, with bearish catalysts dominating.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remains under pressure on Thursday, trading near $61.20 during the American session after declining for a second straight day. The commodity briefly fell over 3% earlier in the day before finding near-term support at the $60.00 psychological level.The latest leg down is driven by a combination of bearish supply-side fundamentals and technical rejection near key resistance. Renewed optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran nuclear agreement has revived expectations of increased Iranian oil hitting global markets, should sanctions be eased. This has triggered fresh concerns over an oversupplied environment, pressuring crude prices.Additionally, the latest inventory data has fueled downside pressure. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected 3.5 million-barrel build in Crude Oil stockpiles last week, sharply contrasting with the market's forecast of a 1.1 million-barrel draw. The bearish tone was reinforced by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which recorded a further 4.3 million-barrel inventory increase.Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its 2025 forecast, trimming projected supply growth from the US and other non-OPEC+ producers to 800,000 barrels per day, down from the earlier 900,000 bpd estimate. However, the group's commitment to gradually increasing the output remains a bearish overhang for oil prices.From a technical standpoint, the intraday decline found support at the $60.00 psychological mark, triggering a mild bounce. However, the rebound appears limited, with price action now struggling near the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $61.24. This dynamic level has flipped into short-term resistance after being breached earlier in the week.From a broader perspective, WTI remains rangebound between key levels of $55.50 and $64.00. The recent failure to clear $64.00 — a horizontal resistance aligned with prior swing highs — has left bulls on the defensive, particularly as technical momentum begins to fade. On the downside, immediate support lies at $60.00, followed by the previous week's low near $55.50.A break below this zone would likely confirm a bearish continuation and expose further losses toward the $52.00 handle.To the upside, bulls need to reclaim the 21-day EMA on a daily closing basis to regain short-term control. A sustained move above $61.24 could pave the way for a fresh test of the $64.00 resistance zone, with further upside potential toward $66.80.

21:08 US Dollar dips after mixed US data fails to lift sentiment
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, is trading just under 101.00 on Thursday after key US economic data releases offered little upside momentum.

20:50 Dow Jones gains ground as PPI beat boosts investor confidence
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pared early-week losses and rose about 200 points on Thursday. Equities were bolstered by a better-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation print that showed upstream inflation effects are still cooling at a faster rate than initially expected.

20:47 USD/JPY weakens as soft US data and dovish Fed tone bolster Yen demand
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining ground against the US Dollar (USD) in Thursday’s US session, with USD/JPY extending its downward trajectory amid sustained pressure on the Greenback.

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The decline reflects a confluence of bearish factors for the US Dollar, including weaker-than-expected US economic data, dovish messaging from the Federal Reserve (Fed), softening US Treasury yields, and a broader shift toward safe-haven assets such as the Yen.At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 145.75, representing a 0.68% decline from the previous session’s close. The move underscores heightened investor caution and a prevailing risk-off tone, as markets increasingly price in the prospect of a decelerating US economic outlook.Fed pivot signals, weak US data weigh on the US Dollar as yield advantage narrowsThursday’s data releases from the United States painted a picture of weakening momentum. Retail Sales for April rose by just 0.1%, beating market expectations but falling short of the previous month’s reading of 1.5%, suggesting consumers are beginning to pull back. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index fell by 0.5% on a monthly basis, signaling further moderation in inflation at the wholesale level. Together, the figures raise red flags about underlying demand and support the view that inflationary pressures are fading more quickly than anticipated.This backdrop has prompted markets to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. When addressing the markets in a highly anticipated speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation is “evolving more favorably” and emphasized the central bank’s flexibility to respond if incoming data continues to soften. His tone marked a notable shift from recent Fed communication, which had largely emphasized patience and caution. Traders interpreted Powell’s remarks as laying the groundwork for potential rate cuts, pulling US yields lower and weighing further on the US Dollar.Focus shifts to Japanese GDP as market gauges BoJ policy riskThe yield on the 10-year US Treasury note declined to 4.45%, reflecting reduced expectations for additional tightening and amplifying pressure on USD/JPY. With the yield differential between the US Dollar and the Yen narrowing, the incentive to hold USD-denominated assets has weakened. In turn, the Yen is drawing strength as investors rotate into safer positions.This shift in the macro landscape has triggered a clear change in market positioning, with momentum now favoring further downside in the pair. Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term, especially as investors await key Japanese economic data that could influence the pair’s next leg.Attention now turns to Japan’s preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release, due Thursday at 23:50 GMT. Forecasts point to a slight 0.1% QoQ contraction. A weaker-than-expected reading could temper some of the Yen’s recent gains by reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance. On the other hand, a stronger print may validate the recent shift in sentiment and open the door to further downside in USD/JPY. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Japan’s Cabinet Office on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Japan during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Japan’s economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu May 15, 2025 23:50 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: -0.1% Previous: 0.6% Source: Japanese Cabinet Office

20:18 GBP/USD rises towards 1.3300 as UK economy grows above forecasts
The Pound Sterling extended its gains against the US Dollar, driven by a positive reading of economic growth in the UK and softer-than-expected data in the US, which fueled speculation of a slower economic outlook. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3293, up 0.31%.

20:13 USD/CHF holds near multi-week lows amid mixed US data
USD/CHF remains pressured near the 0.8360 level on Thursday, extending its consolidation within this week’s range. The pair is struggling to gain traction amid mixed US economic data and a resilient Swiss economy.

The pair trades near 0.8360, struggling to find a clear direction.US retail sales rise 0.1% in April, slightly beating expectations.Swiss economy expands by 0.7% in Q1, supported by robust services growth.USD/CHF remains pressured near the 0.8360 level on Thursday, extending its consolidation within this week’s range. The pair is struggling to gain traction amid mixed US economic data and a resilient Swiss economy.In the United States, retail sales for April rose by 0.1% to $724.1 billion, slightly above market expectations for no change, while the prior month’s data was revised higher to 1.5% from 1.4%. However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose by just 2.4% year-over-year, falling below the 2.5% forecast and down from 2.7% in March. This marks a significant slowdown in factory gate inflation, raising concerns about weakening price pressures. The softer inflation figures have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to ease policy further, pushing down the US Dollar Index (DXY) below the 101.00 mark.Meanwhile, Switzerland’s economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, accelerating from a revised 0.5% expansion in Q4 2024. This marked the strongest quarterly growth since early 2023, driven primarily by the services sector. However, inflationary pressures remain subdued, with the nation’s producer and import prices falling by 0.5% year-over-year in April, deeper than the 0.1% decline in March, reflecting persistent deflationary trends.Technical AnalysisUSD/CHF trades near the 0.8360 mark, struggling to gain bullish momentum despite a modest recovery in US retail sales. The pair remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.8385, a critical barrier for bulls. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 45, reflecting mild bearish conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, supporting a near-term bearish outlook.Immediate support levels are seen at 0.8350, followed by the psychological 0.8300 mark, while resistance lies at 0.8385 and 0.8400. A sustained break below 0.8350 could expose the pair to further downside towards the year-to-date low near 0.8280. On the upside, a close above 0.8400 is needed to shift the short-term bias back to neutral.Daily Chart

19:43 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds as buyers defend key support levels
Silver prices are recovering from earlier lows, supported by renewed demand at technical support levels.

19:20 EUR/USD price analysis: Euro steadies near 1.1200 amid mixed technical signals
The EUR/USD pair maintained a steady tone near the 1.1200 zone on Thursday, reflecting a cautiously bullish stance after the European session. Price action remains within the middle of its recent range, indicating balanced sentiment despite mixed short-term signals.

EUR/USD trades around the 1.1200 zone with minor gains on Thursday.Short-term indicators remain mixed, while longer-term trends support a bullish outlook.Key support levels sit below, with resistance clustered near recent highs.The EUR/USD pair maintained a steady tone near the 1.1200 zone on Thursday, reflecting a cautiously bullish stance after the European session. Price action remains within the middle of its recent range, indicating balanced sentiment despite mixed short-term signals. The broader technical structure remains supportive, with longer-term moving averages continuing to favor buyers, providing a solid foundation for potential gains.From a technical perspective, the pair presents a complex but generally positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 40, indicating neutral momentum without clear directional pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), however, signals sell momentum, reflecting the ongoing consolidation phase. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index, trading in the 30s, confirms a weak trend, adding to the mixed short-term outlook. The Commodity Channel Index, on the other hand, flashes buy conditions, hinting at potential upward momentum, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, reflecting a lack of clear conviction in either direction.The moving averages provide a more supportive backdrop. While the 20-day Simple Moving Average suggests near-term selling pressure, the longer-term 100-day and 200-day SMAs, along with the 50-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, continue to align with the broader bullish trend. This combination of short-term caution and longer-term support reflects the pair's current consolidation phase, with buyers still in control over the broader time frame.Support levels are identified around 1.1130, 1.1099, and 1.1091. Resistance is clustered near 1.1196, 1.1222, and 1.1234. A sustained move above the immediate resistance zone could confirm a broader breakout, while a move below support might trigger a short-term correction, potentially testing the lower end of the recent range.Daily Chart

19:05 EUR/JPY retreats for second day as Yen strengthens, Euro weighed by softer growth revision
EUR/JPY extended its pullback for a second consecutive session on Thursday, falling 0.5% to trade around 163.00, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) gaining traction on safe-haven flows.

EUR/JPY slides toward 163.00, testing key support from the ascending trendline and the 200-day EMA.The Euro remains under pressure after Q1 GDP was revised lower despite upbeat industrial output.Safe-haven flows boost the Yen amid cautious risk sentiment.EUR/JPY extended its pullback for a second consecutive session on Thursday, falling 0.5% to trade around 163.00, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) gaining traction on safe-haven flows. The Euro (EUR) also came under pressure after Eurozone growth data showed signs of moderation, prompting traders to reassess the region’s near-term outlook.The latest economic data showed the Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in Q1, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 0.4%, though it still marked the sixth straight quarter of expansion. Annual growth held steady at 1.2%, while Industrial Production surprised to the upside with a 2.6% MoM jump in March. Despite the industrial beat, the softer Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print keeps pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain a dovish stance, particularly as inflation continues to ease.The Japanese Yen draws support from broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Persistent global trade uncertainties pressured the US Dollar (USD), lifting other major currencies, including the Yen. A broader rally in Asian currencies was also underway, driven by speculation that the US administration is favoring a weaker Dollar to rebalance trade flows. Washington has repeatedly argued that undervalued Asian currencies offer an unfair advantage to regional exporters. Meanwhile, attention is turning to the US-Japan trade negotiations, with Tokyo aiming to secure a deal by June.From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY is currently testing an ascending trendline from the March lows, converging with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 161.86. This zone remains a key area of support. The broader structure remains intact as long as this level holds, with buyers likely to step in on dips. A sustained break below the trendline-EMA confluence would signal potential for further downside toward 160.50.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to 50.9, hovering in neutral territory and suggesting a pause in bullish momentum rather than a full trend reversal. On the upside, 164.50 continues to cap gains, and a breakout above this level is required to resume the bullish bias.EUR/JPY remains at a critical juncture, with the 162.00–161.85 zone acting as a key technical pivot. A bounce could trigger fresh bullish momentum, but a break lower would shift the near-term bias in favor of the Yen.

18:37 United States 4-Week Bill Auction dipped from previous 4.225% to 4.22%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction dipped from previous 4.225% to 4.22%

18:31 EUR/CHF price analysis: Cross maintains bearish tone near daily lows on Thursday
The EUR/CHF cross is trading around the 0.9400 zone on Thursday, maintaining a bearish tone as it approaches the lower end of its daily range. The cross remains under pressure as traders assess a mix of technical signals, suggesting further downside risk despite some short-term bullish momentum.

EUR/CHF trades near the 0.9400 zone, reflecting a bearish tone with minor losses.Momentum signals remain mixed, with long-term averages supporting selling pressure.Key support rests around 0.9360, with resistance near 0.9370 and 0.9380.The EUR/CHF cross is trading around the 0.9400 zone on Thursday, maintaining a bearish tone as it approaches the lower end of its daily range. The cross remains under pressure as traders assess a mix of technical signals, suggesting further downside risk despite some short-term bullish momentum.From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 40s, reflecting neutral conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals ongoing buy momentum, providing a short-term counterbalance to the broader bearish outlook. The Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) also trades in the 60s, suggesting a more balanced tone, while the Commodity Channel Index (20) resides in the 40s, reinforcing the mixed momentum picture. The Average Directional Index (14), around the 14 level, indicates a weak trend, further highlighting the uncertain directional bias.Moving averages provide a clearer bearish picture, with the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) aligning with the 10 and 30-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to signal ongoing selling pressure. This alignment suggests that the broader trend remains tilted toward the downside, despite the 20-day SMA hinting at a possible short-term recovery.Immediate support is identified around 0.9360, followed by deeper levels at 0.9353 and 0.9348. On the upside, resistance is expected near 0.9370, with stronger barriers at 0.9375 and 0.9380, potentially limiting gains in the near term.Daily Chart

17:46 Gold price rebounds above $3,200 as US PPI and Retail Sales miss estimates
Gold prices recovered some ground earlier during the North American session after US economic data suggested that factory gate inflation continues to decelerate while consumer spending debilitated due to US tariffs. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades at $3,202, up by 0.82%.

17:33 NZD/USD drops on New Zealand fiscal plans, Powell comments, mixed US data
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, pressured by a stronger Greenback and cautious investor reaction to recent macroeconomic developments.

17:30 EUR/GBP inches lower, tests 200-day EMA as UK GDP tops forecasts
EUR/GBP is trading slightly lower near 0.8420 at the time of writing on Thursday, retreating from the previous day’s highs as the pair tests the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

EUR/GBP trades near 0.8420, testing 200-day EMA after failing to extend previous day’s gains.Eurozone GDP revised down modestly, but Industrial Production surprises to the upside.UK Q1 GDP expands at the strongest pace in three quarters.
EUR/GBP is trading slightly lower near 0.8420 at the time of writing on Thursday, retreating from the previous day’s highs as the pair tests the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The British Pound found renewed support after stronger-than-expected UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, while the Euro remains underpinned by upbeat Industrial Production figures.In the Eurozone, GDP was revised down to 0.3% QoQ for Q1 from an initial 0.4% estimate. Annual growth held at 1.2%, matching the previous quarter and preliminary figures. However, Industrial Production in March rose by a robust 2.6% MoM — beating expectations of 1.8% — and marking the strongest print since November 2020, driven by higher capital goods output and factory activity.The British economy grew by 0.7% QoQ in Q1, surpassing market forecasts of 0.6% and accelerating from a 0.1% gain in Q4 of 2024. This marks the strongest quarterly growth in three quarters, reflecting resilience in key sectors. On a monthly basis, GDP rose by 0.2% in March following a 0.5% increase in February. Annual growth came in at 1.3%, slightly below the prior 1.5% but ahead of consensus at 1.2%.This latest economic data underscores a widening monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). The ECB, at its April 17 meeting, lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, with the deposit facility rate now at 2.25%, signaling a move to ease monetary policy amid concerns about rising trade tensions impacting the growth outlook. The ECB appears on track to begin its rate-cutting cycle, amid subdued inflation and a downward revision to Q1 GDP growth. Although Eurozone Industrial production posted its strongest monthly gain since late 2020, policymakers remain focused on supporting the fragile recovery.On the other side, the BoE also lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on May 8, but the decision exposed divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee and reflected a more cautious tone. The UK’s economy expanded by 0.7% in Q1 — the strongest quarterly performance in three quarters — and monthly figures continue to outperform expectations, giving the BoE more room to hold off on aggressive easing. As a result, monetary policy divergence between the two central banks continues to widen, with the ECB clearly ahead in its easing cycle, while the BoE signals a slower, data-dependent path.

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change in line with expectations (110B) in May 9
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change in line with expectations (110B) in May 9

17:29 USD/CAD edges up to near 1.4000 even as US Dollar underperforms
The USD/CAD pair ticks up to near the psychological level of 1.4000 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The Loonie pair trades higher despite the US Dollar (USD) trading lower following the release of the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April.

17:00 United States Business Inventories below forecasts (0.2%) in March: Actual (0.1%)
United States Business Inventories below forecasts (0.2%) in March: Actual (0.1%)

17:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (40) in May: Actual (34)
United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (40) in May: Actual (34)

16:45 Gold consolidates despite ETF outflows – TDS
Chinese ETFs sold roughly -64koz last session, more than offsetting the +27koz inflows from global x-China ETFs.

Chinese ETFs sold roughly -64koz last session, more than offsetting the +27koz inflows from global x-China ETFs. These outflows still remain multiples below the scale of inflows seen over the last months, suggesting additional selling activity from other cohorts, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. USD’s weakening store-of-value role supports Gold"A continued rise in comex Gold open interest could point to some modest short acquisitions over the last sessions, but even so, the scale of these selling flows in aggregate remains limited, which suggests prices are simply consolidating on modest retail outflows until they find the first bid." "After all, we reiterate that CTAs will not notably sell their longs without a substantial drawdown, macro funds are roughly flat in Gold and the top Shanghai traders have been aggressively buying the dip after holding their smallest Gold position in a year — adding up to 685koz of notional Gold to their books since Gold prices topped around Chinese holidays. This leaves retail ETF holders as the only vulnerable cohort, and unless macro funds opt to build a more significant net short position, persistent central bank demand should be sufficiently strong to offset such flows." "The surprise will be that Gold prices struggle to trade lower — despite the worst-case scenario for Gold on trade hitting the tapes this week. This is what an asymmetric trade looks like, and ultimately, we think this behavior is symptomatic of the USD partly losing its store-of-value function — even if it isn't losing its reserve currency status."

16:15 United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 0% below forecasts (0.2%) in April
United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 0% below forecasts (0.2%) in April

16:15 United States Capacity Utilization registered at 77.7%, below expectations (77.8%) in April
United States Capacity Utilization registered at 77.7%, below expectations (77.8%) in April

16:08 USD/CHF corrects lower on upbeat Swiss GDP, mixed US economic data
The USD/CHF pair drifts lower, extending its consolidation within the current week’s range and trading near 0.8360 at the time of writing on Thursday.

16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $680.2B to $687.3B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $680.2B to $687.3B

15:48 India Trade Deficit Government: $26.42B (April) vs $21.54B
India Trade Deficit Government: $26.42B (April) vs $21.54B

15:46 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) remains at 0.6% in April
United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) remains at 0.6% in April

15:45 Powell speech: Revisions to Fed communications are being considered
While delivering his prepared remarks on Framework Review at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference on Thursday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said that officials agree the strategic language around both shortfalls of employment and average inflation need to be reconsidered.

15:39 US Retail Sales rise by 0.1% in April vs. 0% expected
Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose by 0.1% in April to $724.1 billion, the US Census Bureau announced on Thursday. This reading followed the 1.5% increase (revised from 1.4%) recorded in March and came in slightly better than the market expectation for a no change.

Retail Sales in the US rose slightly in April.The US Dollar Index stays under modest bearish pressure below 101.00.Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose by 0.1% in April to $724.1 billion, the US Census Bureau announced on Thursday. This reading followed the 1.5% increase (revised from 1.4%) recorded in March and came in slightly better than the market expectation for a no change. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 5.2%."Total sales for the February 2025 through April 2025 period were up 4.8% from the same period a year ago," the press release read. "Retail trade sales were down 0.1% from March 2025, and up 4.7% from last year."Market reactionThe US Dollar Index struggles to gain traction after this report and stays in negative territory below 101.00.

15:36 US: Initial Jobless Claims matched consensus at 229K last week
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance held steady at 229K for the week ending May 10, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print matched initial estimates and the previous week's revised tally of 229K (revised from 228K).

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 229K.Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.881M.US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance held steady at 229K for the week ending May 10, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print matched initial estimates and the previous week's revised tally of 229K (revised from 228K).The report also highlighted a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, while the four-week moving average increased by 3.250K to 230.5K from the prior week’s revised average.Moreover, Continuing Jobless Claims went up by 9K to reach 1.881M for the week ending May 3.Market reactionThe Greenback keeps its bearish tone in place on Thursday, navigating the area just below the 101.00 barrier, reversing Wednesday’s advance.

15:33 US annual PPI inflation softens to 2.4% in April vs. 2.5% expected
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose 2.4% on a yearly basis in April, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Thursday. This reading followed the 2.7% increase recorded in March and came in below the market expectation of 2.5%.

15:31 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in March
Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in March

15:31 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.881M, below expectations (1.89M) in May 2
United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.881M, below expectations (1.89M) in May 2

15:30 United States Retail Sales (YoY) up to 5.2% in April from previous 4.6%
United States Retail Sales (YoY) up to 5.2% in April from previous 4.6%

15:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) meets forecasts (3.1%) in April
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) meets forecasts (3.1%) in April

15:30 United States Retail Sales Control Group fell from previous 0.4% to -0.2% in April
United States Retail Sales Control Group fell from previous 0.4% to -0.2% in April

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average increased to 230.5K in May 9 from previous 227K
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average increased to 230.5K in May 9 from previous 227K

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims in line with forecasts (229K) in May 9
United States Initial Jobless Claims in line with forecasts (229K) in May 9

15:30 United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in April
United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in April

15:30 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey above expectations (-11) in May: Actual (-4)
United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey above expectations (-11) in May: Actual (-4)

15:30 United States Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.1% above expectations (0%) in April
United States Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.1% above expectations (0%) in April

15:30 United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.4% below forecasts (2.5%) in April
United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.4% below forecasts (2.5%) in April

15:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -9.2, above expectations (-10) in May
United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -9.2, above expectations (-10) in May

15:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in April: Actual (-0.4%)
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in April: Actual (-0.4%)

15:30 United States Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in April: Actual (-0.5%)
United States Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in April: Actual (-0.5%)

15:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) registered at 278.6K above expectations (227.5K) in April
Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) registered at 278.6K above expectations (227.5K) in April

15:14 Mexican Peso holds ground ahead of Banxico, Fed Powell’s remarks
The Mexican Peso (MXN) holds steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as markets brace for a pivotal session driven by monetary policy developments in both Mexico and the United States.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Mexican Peso holds firm ahead of expected Banxico 50 bps interest rate cut.US economic data and Fed Powell's speech may trigger volatility and shape near-term USD/MXN momentum on Thursday.USD/MXN remains under pressure after decisively breaking below a consolidation range.The Mexican Peso (MXN) holds steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as markets brace for a pivotal session driven by monetary policy developments in both Mexico and the United States.At the time of writing, USD/MXN is trading 0.22% lower in the near 19.35, with attention centered on Bank of Mexico (Banxico) interest rate decision – where a 50 basis-point (bps) cut is widely expected –, as well as a slew of US economic data and a speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, all of which are poised to guide near-term price direction.US-Mexico policy divergence drives exchange rate dynamicsThe policy divergence between Banxico and the Fed is a central factor in USD/MXN price action. Banxico is expected to cut rates for the seventh consecutive meeting, lowering the benchmark to 8.5% from 9.0% in response to easing inflation and economic headwinds. By contrast, the Fed has maintained interest rates unchanged this year, signaling a prolonged restrictive stance to anchor inflation at its 2% target.Thursday’s US economic data, including Initial Jobless Claims, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Sales figures for April, will provide vital insight into the health of the US economy and could further shape Fed policy expectations. Powell’s speech will be closely watched for any change in tone or policy direction, with markets highly sensitive to shifts in guidance.Mexican Peso daily digest: Banxico in focusBanxico rate cuts: The Bank of Mexico has cut interest rates at six consecutive meetings since August. A 50 bps cut on Thursday would mark a cumulative 250 bps (2.50%) of easing over seven meetings.Fed stance: In contrast, the Fed has reduced rates three times in the same period, lowering its benchmark rate to the 4.50%-4.25% range from 5.50%-5.25%. Since then, the Fed has maintained a data-dependent, hawkish bias.Market sensitivity to surprises: Stronger-than-expected US data would likely reinforce expectations of extended restrictive monetary policy, boosting the US Dollar. Weaker data may revive speculation around earlier Fed rate cuts, weighing on the Greenback.Trade tensions with the US: Rising US-Mexico trade tensions threaten Mexico’s export-reliant economy, where over 80% of exports go to the US. Tariffs on goods such as steel and aluminium could disrupt supply chains, dampen investor sentiment, and weigh on growth.Tariff policy developments: The US has imposed 25% tariffs on certain Mexican imports not covered by the USMCA, citing security and drug enforcement concerns, adding further uncertainty to bilateral trade relations.USMCA review proposal: According to Reuters, Mexico’s Economy Minister has proposed an early review of the USMCA, ahead of the 2026 timeline, to reassure investors and preserve the framework underpinning over $1.5 trillion in annual North American trade.USD/MXN Technical Analysis: Bearish breakdown extends below key supportUSD/MXN remains under pressure, extending its decline below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October to February rally at 19.57. The pair is currently trading around 19.37, having decisively broken below key psychological support, now turned resistance, at 19.40, reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum.The consolidation range highlighted in the purple box in the chart below has been breached to the downside, confirming the continuation of the broader downtrend. This technical breakdown aligns with persistent bearish sentiment.The next key support lies near the October low at 19.11, a critical level that could serve as a medium-term downside target if bearish pressure continues. A break below this level would open the door to further losses, potentially exposing the psychological 19.00 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 19.40, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 19.57. A sustained move above this zone could signal a shift in momentum, bringing the psychological 19.60 area back into focus.The 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 19.53, continues to act as dynamic resistance, capping any upside attempts. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37.14, indicating the pair is approaching oversold conditions, though there remains room for additional downside before a corrective rebound becomes technically compelling.USD/MXN Daily chart
Economic Indicator Fed's Chair Powell speech Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018. Read more. Next release: Thu May 15, 2025 12:40 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Federal Reserve

15:00 Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (1%) in March: Actual (0.8%)
Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (1%) in March: Actual (0.8%)

14:58 EUR quietly trading around 1.12 – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session with a modest 0.2% gain vs. the USD, showing losses vs. the havens while strengthening vs. the likes of AUD and NOK in a market that is trading on the disinflationary impact of a US/Iran deal, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session with a modest 0.2% gain vs. the USD, showing losses vs. the havens while strengthening vs. the likes of AUD and NOK in a market that is trading on the disinflationary impact of a US/Iran deal, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR benefits from broader trends & prospect of lower oil prices"Fundamental releases have included stronger than expected industrial production figures for the euro area and a slightly softer print for the second pass at Q1 GDP. This week’s recovery in EURUSD looks to have stalled and congestion is being observed around 1.1200." "The RSI is remarkably quiet and chopping on either side of 50, indicating limited momentum. Near-term support is expected below 1.1100 and recent resistance has been observed above 1.1250."

14:57 CAD vulnerable to double blow of wider spreads and lower oil prices – Scotiabank
The CAD is entering Thursday’s NA session flat vs. the USD but trading somewhat defensively, reflecting the burden of lower oil prices amid the prospect of a possible US/Iran deal, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The CAD is entering Thursday’s NA session flat vs. the USD but trading somewhat defensively, reflecting the burden of lower oil prices amid the prospect of a possible US/Iran deal, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. RSI remains in bullish territory"Wider yield spreads have been a recent headwind for the CAD, and their impact had been somewhat softened by the recovery in crude over the past week or so. Lower oil prices and wider yield spreads are dealing a double blow for the currency and leaving it vulnerable to further near-term weakness." "Our FV estimate for USD/CAD has climbed in tandem with spot, and it is currently at 1.3892. Domestically, CAD risk lies with the release of housing starts (8:15am ET), manufacturing sales (8:30am ET), and existing home sales (9:00am ET), however the broader tone is likely to remain dominant in light of risks related to Powell and the US data calendar. The BoC calendar appears to have added a speaking engagement for Gov. Macklem, next Thursday in Banff, on the sidelines of the G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors." "USD/CAD appeared to have put in a solid near-term (double) top earlier this week as we had noted clear resistance above 1.4000. USD/CAD’s double top observed on Monday and Tuesday reached its measured move target on Wednesday and the subsequent support has increased the prospect of a renewed push above 1.4000. Zooming out, we continue to highlight the importance of the midpoint of the September/February range around 1.4100. The RSI remains in bullish territory, hovering just above 50. Near-term support has been clearly defined around 1.3920."

14:55 G10 FX trades risk off on prospect of US/Iran deal & lower Oil prices – Scotiabank
Risk aversion is dominating as we head into Thursday’s NA session with a distribution of relative currency performance that is seeing notable strength from the havens Swiss Franc (CHF) and Japanese Yen (JPY) and weakness from the growth-sensitive commodity currencies NOK, NZD, and AUD.

Risk aversion is dominating as we head into Thursday’s NA session with a distribution of relative currency performance that is seeing notable strength from the havens Swiss Franc (CHF) and Japanese Yen (JPY) and weakness from the growth-sensitive commodity currencies NOK, NZD, and AUD. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) and Mexican Peso (MXN) are trading flat vs. the US Dollar (USD) and are mid-performers among the G10 as Euro (EUR) and Pound Sterling (GBP) show modest gains, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD mixed as G10 offer clear risk off signals with stronger havens"Market participants are digesting the prospect of a US/Iran deal, sending oil prices lower and delivering a wave of disinflation across global markets as traders consider the possibility of a repeat of 2015- 2018 period that saw Iranian exports surge by roughly 2 million barrels per day. US equity futures are trading defensively and looking somewhat exhausted following a spectacular rally from their early April lows." "US yields are off on the day but remain in a solid uptrend as markets trade off of easing trade tensions, fading recession fears, and the US fiscal outlook. Copper prices continue to consolidate around the midpoint of their recent range and the price of gold is flat on the day, recovering from a short-lived drop below its 50 day MA." "Thursday’s calendar is heavily laden with event risk, as Fed Chair Powell’s 8:40am ET speech will closely follow the 8:30am ET deluge of retail sales (Apr), Empire and Philly Fed (May), PPI (Apr), and weekly jobless claims data. The US will also release industrial production (Apr) at 9:15am ET and the NAHB housing market index at 10:00am ET. Powell’s message will likely continue to be one of patience, echoing the neutral tone he communicated at last week’s (May 7) policy decision (hold)."

14:55 US Dollar steadies ahead of US economic data, Fed Powell’s speech
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is catching its breath and trades slightly lower just below the 101.00 level at the time of writing on Thursday, ahead of a chunky United States (US) economic calendar.

14:36 India M3 Money Supply dipped from previous 9.6% to 9.5% in April 28
India M3 Money Supply dipped from previous 9.6% to 9.5% in April 28

14:09 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Extends losing streak for third trading day
The USD/JPY pair extends its losing spree for the third trading day on Thursday.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY declines for the third trading day in a row as the Japanese Yen outperforms.BoJ Uchida keeps doors open for further interest rate hikes on hopes of steady wage growth.The US Dollar faces selling pressures ahead of Fed Powell’s speech.The USD/JPY pair extends its losing spree for the third trading day on Thursday. The pair faces selling pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to outperform across the board on hopes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates further despite elevated global economic uncertainty due to the fallout of tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump. Japanese Yen PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.49% 0.16% -0.19% 0.62% 0.15% 0.83% 0.45% EUR -0.49% -0.20% -0.13% 0.63% 0.29% 0.83% 0.44% GBP -0.16% 0.20% 0.25% 0.83% 0.50% 0.95% 0.64% JPY 0.19% 0.13% -0.25% 0.81% -0.29% 0.16% 0.41% CAD -0.62% -0.63% -0.83% -0.81% -0.19% 0.20% -0.18% AUD -0.15% -0.29% -0.50% 0.29% 0.19% 0.43% 0.12% NZD -0.83% -0.83% -0.95% -0.16% -0.20% -0.43% -0.41% CHF -0.45% -0.44% -0.64% -0.41% 0.18% -0.12% 0.41% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Traders have become increasingly confident about the BoJ raising interest rates again this year after comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida earlier this week that “wages are expected to continue rising” as Japan’s job market is very tight despite medium- to-long-term inflation expectations are likely to “temporarily stagnate”.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is also underperforming ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 12:40 GMT in a Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington. Financial market participants would like to know whether the Fed is still stick to its stance of holding interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% despite soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April and a temporary US-China trade truce.Ahead of Fed Powell’s speech, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades lower near 100.80.USD/JPY retraces significantly from an almost six-week high of 148.54 to near 145.50 on Thursday. Still, the pair holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 145.18, indicating that the near-term trend remains bullish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI falls below the 60.00 level.An upside move in the pair towards the psychological level of 150.00 and the March 28 high of 151.21 would come if it will break above the May 13 high of 148.57.The asset would face more downside towards the April 22 low of 139.90 and the 14 July 2023 low of 137.25 if it breaks below the May 7 low of 142.42.USD/JPY daily chart Economic Indicator Fed's Chair Powell speech Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018. Read more. Next release: Thu May 15, 2025 12:40 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Federal Reserve

13:43 USD/JPY is under pressure from US/South Korea talks – OCBC
USD/JPY continued to trade lower. Pair was last at 145.91 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY continued to trade lower. Pair was last at 145.91 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bullish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading"The Bloomberg headline that US discussed FX with South Korea spilled over to other USD/Asia, including USD/JPY. Recall that Finance Minister Kato said he will seek an opportunity to discuss currency matters with US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent when the 2 of them are in Canada for the G7 meeting (in Jun)." "Although no detail/agenda was made known, the suspicion of FX policy being discussed during bilateral trade talks with the US may weigh on USD. Bullish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI fell further." "Support is at 144.40 (23.6% fibo). Resistance at 147.10 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 148.40 and 149.40/70 levels (50% fibo, 200 DMA). We kept our short USD/JPY (entered at 148 (as per FX Weekly on Mon), targeting a move towards 141. SL at 151."

13:42 AUD/USD edges lower despite strong Australia jobs report
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower, retreating to near 0.6400 against the US Dollar (USD) at the time of writing on Thursday, erasing early Asian session gains following a stellar Australian jobs report.

AUD/USD slips to near 0.6400 during the European session on Thursday.Australia adds 89K fresh jobs in April; unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%.Upbeat data trims RBA easing bets, but markets still price in a 25 bps interest rate cut on Tuesday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower, retreating to near 0.6400 against the US Dollar (USD) at the time of writing on Thursday, erasing early Asian session gains following a stellar Australian jobs report.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported the economy added 89,000 jobs in April, sharply beating consensus forecasts of a 20,000 increase, and well above March’s upwardly revised 36,400 gain. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with expectations. The pair had initially jumped during the Asian session, supported by strong labour data. However, the bullish momentum faded after AUD/USD failed to hold above the key 0.6450 psychological barrier, triggering a pullback as traders reassessed the broader market backdrop.This report signals that Australia’s labor market remains tight, providing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with less impetus to lower interest rates in the near term. The recent easing of US-China trade tensions, which has helped calm fears of a global recession, also reduces pressure on the RBA to deliver aggressive monetary support. Nonetheless, markets continue to expect a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut at the central bank’s upcoming policy meeting on Tuesday, which would bring the Official Cash Rate (OCR) down to 3.85% from 4.10%.On the geopolitical front, China announced on Wednesday that it will suspend certain non-tariff countermeasures on United States (US) entities for 90 days, following a bilateral agreement over the weekend to reduce tariffs. This marks another step toward de-escalation in the prolonged US-China trade dispute, improving global market sentiment.Despite these tailwinds, AUD/USD remains under pressure, weighed down by a resilient US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is holding firm above the 100.00 mark, as traders await the release of US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April, due later on Thursday. These reports, along with a scheduled speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, could further clarify the Fed’s policy stance and influence near-term USD direction.

13:38 USD/CNH: The support at 7.1700 is back in sight – UOB Group
Further sideways trading seems likely; firmer underlying tone suggests a higher range of 7.1950/7.2200. In the longer run, renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 is back in sight, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Further sideways trading seems likely; firmer underlying tone suggests a higher range of 7.1950/7.2200. In the longer run, renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 is back in sight, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Further sideways trading seems likely24-HOUR VIEW: "USD dropped to 7.1791 on Tuesday and rebounded. Yesterday, Wednesday, we indicated that 'downward momentum has faded with the rebound.' We also indicated that USD 'is likely to trade sideways, probably between 7.1850 and 7.2100.' USD then traded in 7.1919/7.2158 range, closing at 7.2118, up by 0.21%. While further sideways trading still seems likely, the firmer underlying tone suggests a higher range of 7.1950/7.2200." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a negative USD view since early last week. As we tracked the price movements, we indicated two days ago (13 May, spot at 7.2000) that 'the renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 could be back in sight.' While USD has not been able to make significant headway on the downside, we will maintain our view as long as 7.2330 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."

13:34 Gold: Continues to trade with heavy bias – OCBC
Gold has continued to trade with a heavy bias as tariff de-escalation momentum gained pace, while Fed cut expectations was scaled back in terms of the timing of next cut and quantum. Gold was last at 3174.52 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Gold has continued to trade with a heavy bias as tariff de-escalation momentum gained pace, while Fed cut expectations was scaled back in terms of the timing of next cut and quantum. Gold was last at 3174.52 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Downside risks intact"The other driver may have been the misinformation about Gold being re-classified as Tier 1 HQLA under Basel III as of 1 July (which may have partially contributed to the earlier run up in Gold price). Tier 1 refers to capital rules while HQLA is a function within the liquidity rules of LCR and NSFR." "As it is, Gold is already a Tier 1 asset under the Basel Capital Accords, but Gold is not due to be reclassified as a Level 1 HQLA. So far, no announcement has been made, though there was proposal/research to suggest that Gold meets all criteria to warrant Level 1 HQLA status. Further unwinding of long position is not ruled out should market expectations for Fed cut further pare back and/or de-escalation picks up pace.""Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI fell. Downside risks intact. Support at 3150 (50 DMA), 3050 levels (50% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high). Resistance at 3230, 3288 (23.6% fibo)."

13:24 USD/JPY: Expected to consolidate in a range of 144.50/148.50 – UOB Group
USD is likely to trade in a sideways range of 145.70/147.50. In the longer run, upward momentum has dissipated; USD is expected to consolidate in a range of 144.50/148.50 for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD is likely to trade in a sideways range of 145.70/147.50. In the longer run, upward momentum has dissipated; USD is expected to consolidate in a range of 144.50/148.50 for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Upward momentum has dissipated24-HOUR VIEW: "When USD was at 147.60 in early Asian trade yesterday, we noted that 'The price movements still appear to be part of a range trading phase.' We expected USD to 'trade between 146.70 and 148.20.' The sudden surge in volatility was surprising, as USD plunged to 145.58. However, the decline was not sustained, as USD staged and swift rebound. Downward momentum has barely increased with the brief decline. Today, instead of continuing to weaken, USD is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 145.70/147.50."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have viewed USD positively since late last week. In our most recent narrative from two days ago (13 May, spot at 147.90), we expected 'further USD strength.' However, we indicated that 'deeply overbought conditions could lead to a few days of range trading first.' We also indicated that 'We will continue to hold the same view as long as 146.00 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached.' Yesterday, in a surprising move, USD plummeted to 145.58. Upward momentum has dissipated with the breach of our ‘strong support’ level. USD has likely entered a consolidation phase, and we expect it to trade in a range of 144.50/148.50 for now."

13:19 USD: Lots of mini Mar-a-Lago Accords? – Commerzbank
When news agencies yesterday announced that officials from the South Korean Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury Department had discussed exchange rates on the sidelines of a meeting in Milan, Korea's currency, the won, took a big leap. But it wasn't the only one.

When news agencies yesterday announced that officials from the South Korean Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury Department had discussed exchange rates on the sidelines of a meeting in Milan, Korea's currency, the won, took a big leap. But it wasn't the only one. The US currency came under pressure across the board, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. USD comes under pressures across the board"Now, it's not really unusual for officials from friendly finance ministries to exchange ideas. Especially when both officials are responsible for international relations in their respective ministries. I assume that's part of their job description. Nevertheless, this news gained relevance because there have been discussions for some time about a 'Mar-a-Lago Accord,' i.e., a scenario of international political coordination with the aim of weakening the US currency.""But it can also be achieved with a sufficient number of bilateral agreements. One with South Korea, one with Japan, and so on. Now, it is by no means plausible that these countries want to revalue their own currencies against the dollar. But it is easier – at least from the perspective of the US president and his 'neorealist' advisors – to force them to do so one by one.""In short, US representatives should not be talking to officials from foreign finance ministries, but to representatives of foreign central banks (at least where central banks are independent). To put it bluntly, if Plaza worked, it was because the heads of the G5 central banks were involved. Not because of the finance ministers we all remember from the press photo."

13:16 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD finds temporary support below $32, outlook remains fragile
Silver price (XAG/USD) bounces back to near $32.00 during European trading hours on Thursday after sliding to near the monthly low around $31.65 earlier in the day. The outlook of the Silver price remains bearish as trade relations between the United States (US) and China have improved further.

13:04 NZD/USD: No significant increase in momentum – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could decline vs US Dollar (USD), but as there is no significant increase in momentum, it is unlikely to be able to break clearly below 0.5860.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could decline vs US Dollar (USD), but as there is no significant increase in momentum, it is unlikely to be able to break clearly below 0.5860. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.NZD/USD is unlikely to be able to break clearly below 0.586024-HOUR VIEW: "After NZD soared on Tuesday, we highlighted yesterday, Wednesday, that NZD 'is likely to rise further.' However, we pointed out that 'conditions are deeply overbought, and NZD is unlikely to be able to break above 0.5965.' Although NZD subsequently rose to 0.5969, it dropped sharply from the high, closing at 0.5898 (-0.63%). This time around, NZD is likely to decline further, but as there is no significant increase in downward momentum, it is unlikely to be able to break clearly below 0.5860. The major support at 0.5835 is not expected to come into view. On the upside, resistance levels are at 0.5915 and 0.5940."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Not much changed since our update yesterday (14 May, spot at 0.5935). As highlighted, 'the recent price movements have resulted in a mixed outlook.' For the time being, we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range."

12:56 DXY: Markets are very sensitive to comments surrounding FX – OCBC
There was quite a bit of volatility in FX markets overnight, with USD declining at first, in response to the Bloomberg headline that US discussed FX with South Korea. DXY was last at 100.77 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

There was quite a bit of volatility in FX markets overnight, with USD declining at first, in response to the Bloomberg headline that US discussed FX with South Korea. DXY was last at 100.77 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Sideway trades are likely for now"This was also separately confirmed by South Korea’s finance ministry spokesperson. To put in perspective, this was not exactly a fresh headline as it was originally reported last week by Korea Times but was not picked up by the mainstream media outlets. At the ADB event in Milan last week, BoK Governor Rhee said that Asian currencies, including the Korean won, have been gaining ground partly due to the U.S. administration's pressure on Asian countries to appreciate their currencies." "Then USD losses were partially retraced after Bloomberg carried a separate report saying that US officials are not seeking to include currency pledges in trade deals (according to a person familiar with the matter, without naming the person). The sharp 2-way moves highlighted how markets are very sensitive to comments surrounding FX especially against a backdrop of chatters of de-dollarisation and questions if FX policy or pledges were part of US bilateral trade talks. Uncertainty on this front may still prove volatile for USD." "Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI eased. Sideway trades likely for now unless a fresh catalyst emerges. Resistance at 101.80 (50 DMA), 102.60 (38.2% fibo). Support at 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough), 99.85 (21 DMA). The next set of US data to watch out for is retail sales, empire manufacturing, industrial production, initial jobless claims and PPI (tonight)."

12:48 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6400/0.6465 – UOB Group
A slight increase in downward momentum is likely to lead to a lower range of 0.6400/0.6465 instead of a sustained decline. In the longer run, to continue to rise, Australian Dollar (AUD) must break and hold above 0.6515, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

A slight increase in downward momentum is likely to lead to a lower range of 0.6400/0.6465 instead of a sustained decline. In the longer run, to continue to rise, Australian Dollar (AUD) must break and hold above 0.6515, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Above 0.6515, AUD to continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected 'further AUD strength' yesterday, we indicated that 'any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.6420/0.6515.' After rising to 0.6501, AUD pulled back to 0.6424 before closing on a soft note at 0.6429, a declilne of 0.66%. There has been a slight increase in downward momentum, but instead of a sustained decline, AUD is more likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6400/0.6465." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "AUD surged two days ago, closing at 0.6472, up sharply by 1.57%. Yesterday, when AUD was at 0.6470, we highlighted the following: 'After the sharp rally, upward momentum has strengthened, but this time around, it is not enough to indicate a sustained rise. To continue to rise, AUD must break and hold above 0.6515. The chance of AUD breaking clearly above 0.6515 will increase in the next few days, provided that the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6370, is not breached.' Our update remains valid."

12:43 AUD/USD faces resistance despite strong jobs report – BBH
AUD/USD is struggling to sustain a break above its 200-day moving average at 0.6455. Australia’s labor market remains strong and bodes well for AUD, BBH's FX analysts report.

AUD/USD is struggling to sustain a break above its 200-day moving average at 0.6455. Australia’s labor market remains strong and bodes well for AUD, BBH's FX analysts report.RBA seen easing cautiously as employment surges in April"Employment overshot consensus rising 89k in April (consensus: 22.5k) vs. 36.4k in March. Full-time jobs increased 59.5k vs. 12.2k in March, and part-time jobs rose 29.5k vs. 24.2k in March. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% and the labor force participation rate increased to 67.1% vs. 66.8% in March, just shy of the 67.2% record high.""RBA cash rate futures continue to fully price-in a 25bps cut to 3.85% at next week’s policy meeting as inflation pressures have eased. However, the solid jobs market means the RBA will keep rates restrictive or above neutral for longer. Based on the average of the RBA’s seven models, the nominal neutral rate is between 2.75% and 3.00%." "Cash rate futures imply 75bps of total easing over the next 12 months (down from 100bps before the jobs data) and the policy rate to bottom at 3.25%."

12:32 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:28 EUR/USD gives up some initial gains on further de-escalation in US-China trade war
EUR/USD gives back half of its intraday gains during European trading hours on Thursday. Still, the major currency pair is 0.2% higher, trading just above 1.1200 at the time of writing.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD surrenders some of its early gains as the US Dollar bounces back on improvement in US-China trade relations.Beijing has rolled back non-tariff measures on 45 US entities.The EU is prepared with countermeasures if trade talks with the US fail.EUR/USD gives back half of its intraday gains during European trading hours on Thursday. Still, the major currency pair is 0.2% higher, trading just above 1.1200 at the time of writing. The pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) recoups some of its initial losses on further de-escalation in the trade war between the United States (US) and China. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, against six major currencies, recovers to near 100.85 from the intraday low of 100.60.During the European trading session, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington is going into a “series of negotiations” with China to “prevent escalation” in trade tensions again. The comments from Bessent have increased investors’ confidence that the world’s two largest powerhouses are actively focusing on reaching a trade deal, a scenario that will lift global economic growth. “We [US] now have a mechanism with China counterparts,” Bessent added.Before comments from US Treasury Bessent, Beijing suspended non-tariff measures taken against 45 US entities, which it imposed on April 4 after the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump on April 2, Reuters reported. The decision from the Chinese Commerce Ministry came in the wake of the agreement between Washington and Beijing for a 90-day pause in the trade war, in which they lowered tariffs by 115%.Going forward, the next major trigger for the US Dollar will be the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data for April in North American trading hours. Investors will pay close attention to Powell’s speech to get cues about whether the central bank has changed its monetary policy stance after soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April and a temporary US-China trade truce.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD holds significant intraday gains as Euro trades firmlyEUR/USD surrenders some of its intraday gains as the US Dollar pares some losses. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades higher among its risky peers despite European Central Bank (ECB) officials signaling that there is room for more interest rate cuts due to decelerating inflationary pressures.On Wednesday, ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of France François Villeroy de Galhau stated that protectionist policies announced by the US President Trump administration will lead to a “restart of inflation in its economy, not in Europe”, a scenario that paves the way for another rate cut by the summer. Going forward, the key trigger for the Euro is trade talks between the European Union (EU) and the US, which have not progressed in a while. During European trading hours, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told the parliament that the continent is prepared with countermeasures if talks with the US do not succeed. However, his comments indicated that the EU's first priority is securing a deal with Washington. “We expect that the negotiations will lead to a good result,” Klingbeil said, adding that "we must respond to the US tariffs with unity and determination.”During European trading hours, revised Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter have shown that the economy grew at a slower pace of 0.3%, compared to the preliminary estimate and the prior release of 0.4%. Year-on-year, the GDP growth remained 1.2%, as expected. Additionally, the Employment Change in the January-March period has come in higher at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, compared to flash estimates and the former reading of 0.1%. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD gains above 1.1200EUR/USD rises above 1.1200 on Thursday. However, the near-term outlook of the pair is still uncertain as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is acting as a key barrier around 1.1210.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers strongly to 50.00 after sliding to near 40.00, suggesting indecisiveness among traders.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:13 Gold sinks as geopolitics, trade war optimism hurt safe-haven demand
Gold (XAU/USD) slides towards $3,146 at the time of writing on Thursday after another slew of headlines from United States (US) President Donald Trump that led traders to flee from safe-haven assets.

12:06 USD/MXN confirms rounding top – Societe Generale
USD/MXN has broken below key multi-month support, forming a bearish rounding top pattern and signaling potential downside toward 19.10 and 18.70, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

USD/MXN has broken below key multi-month support, forming a bearish rounding top pattern and signaling potential downside toward 19.10 and 18.70, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Downside targets include 19.10, 19.00 and possibly 18.70"USD/MXN broke below the lower limit of its multi-month range and has formed a rounding top pattern, this points towards potential downside. It is in vicinity to a projection of 19.30. The 200-DMA near 20.10 could provide resistance if a short-term rebound develops." "The pair looks poised to head lower gradually towards next objectives at last September / October lows of 19.10/19.00 and 18.70."

12:04 USD/CAD steadies near 1.4000, rebounds as crude Oil weakness weighs on Canadian Dollar
USD/CAD stabilized around 1.3980 during Thursday’s European trading hours, recovering earlier losses as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) came under pressure due to declining crude Oil prices.

12:02 Eurozone GDP rises 0.3% QoQ in Q1 2025 vs. 0.4% preliminary estimate
The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1), undermining the preliminary reading of 0.4%, according to the second estimate released by Eurostat on Thursday.

The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1), undermining the preliminary reading of 0.4%, according to the second estimate released by Eurostat on Thursday.The bloc’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.2% in Q1, confirming the initial estimate and as expected.Meanwhile, the Eurozone Employment Change for Q1 arrived at 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 0.8% year-over-year (YoY).Market reactiondeveloping story ...

12:00 Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) in line with expectations (0.8%) in 1Q
Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) in line with expectations (0.8%) in 1Q

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) meets forecasts (1.2%) in 1Q
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) meets forecasts (1.2%) in 1Q

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) registered at 0.3%, below expectations (0.4%) in 1Q
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) registered at 0.3%, below expectations (0.4%) in 1Q

12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) above forecasts (2.5%) in March: Actual (3.6%)
Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) above forecasts (2.5%) in March: Actual (3.6%)

12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.8%) in March: Actual (2.6%)
Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.8%) in March: Actual (2.6%)

12:00 Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) above forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q: Actual (0.3%)
Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) above forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q: Actual (0.3%)

11:58 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 1.3220 and 1.3320 – UOB Group
Current price action is non-trending; Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.3220 and 1.3320. In the longer run, buildup in momentum has faded; GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Current price action is non-trending; Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.3220 and 1.3320. In the longer run, buildup in momentum has faded; GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Buildup in momentum has faded24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we indicated that GBP 'could continue to rebound.' However, we pointed out, 'as conditions are approaching overbought, any further advance is likely limited to a test of 1.3340.' We also pointed out that 'The major resistance at 1.3405 is not expected to come into view.' While GBP rose more than expected to 1.3361, it pulled back sharply to close lower by 0.33% at 1.3259. The contracting moving average envelope indicates that the current price action is non-trending. In other words, GBP is likely to trade in a range today, expected to be between 1.3220 and 1.3320." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (14 May, spot at 1.3300) still stands. As highlighted, the recent buildup in downward momentum has faded. The current price movements are part of a range trading phase, and GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range for now."

11:55 EUR/USD breaks below 1.12 as USD rebounds on trade commitment headlines – Danske Bank
EUR/USD slipped below 1.12 as a Bloomberg report helped the USD recover ground, but confidence in the greenback remains fragile ahead of key US data releases, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

EUR/USD slipped below 1.12 as a Bloomberg report helped the USD recover ground, but confidence in the greenback remains fragile ahead of key US data releases, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.Negative risk premium still weighs on USD despite bounce"EUR/USD dropped below 1.12, as the broad USD trimmed losses following a Bloomberg report indicating that the US is not pursuing currency-related commitments in trade accords. However, a negative risk premium remains embedded in the USD, which continues to trade meaningfully away from fundamentals and pre-Liberation Day levels, reflecting eroding confidence in the greenback." "Today's focus turns to a batch of US data, including April retail sales and PPI. Looking ahead, easing tariff developments and stretched short aggregate USD positioning could result in a choppy path toward further USD depreciation."

11:47 USD: Evidence and speculation weighs on the USD – ING
The dollar is drifting a little lower against major currencies and remains tarnished by April's events. US Treasuries continue to trade on a soft footing, and whether judged against the risk-free SOFR swap rate or German bunds, they have failed to reverse much of the spread widening seen in April.

The dollar is drifting a little lower against major currencies and remains tarnished by April's events. US Treasuries continue to trade on a soft footing, and whether judged against the risk-free SOFR swap rate or German bunds, they have failed to reverse much of the spread widening seen in April. Notably, the correlation between USD/JPY and US Treasury yields – which in normal times is a strong positive – now remains negative, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.100.20/25 is short-term support for DXY"The topic of de-dolarisation involves a lot of speculation about what might happen, but the evidence is also starting to support the diversification thesis. Earlier this week, we saw data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance for portfolio flows in April. The US and the eurozone will not release similar data until mid-June. The Japanese data showed that foreigners bought $25bn of Japanese equities and $31bn of Japanese long-term debt securities in April. That's the largest combined foreign monthly purchase of Japanese assets on record, going back to 2005.""Today, the focus is on US April retail sales, which are expected to be flat after a strong bounce in March. We don't have a strong read on the risks to the data here, but we suspect the dollar is more vulnerable to a weaker number. We also have comments from Fed Chair Jay Powell at 1440CET today. If anything, the bounce back in long-term inflation expectations (to 2.5% from 2.3% when looking at the USD 5Y5Y inflation swap) should keep him even more neutral than he has already been. His commentary looks unlikely to move the needle on market expectations of just 50bp in Fed cuts this year.""Barring a blockbuster retail sales figure – and even that could be discounted by way of pre-tariff front-loading effects – we see DXY staying soft. 100.20/25 is short-term support, below which DXY can give back more of its recovery over the last three weeks."

11:38 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a 1.1130/1.1230 range – UOB Group
There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum; EUR is likely to trade in a 1.1130/1.1230 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, EUR is likely to consolidate between 1.1100 and 1.1290 for the time being, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum; EUR is likely to trade in a 1.1130/1.1230 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, EUR is likely to consolidate between 1.1100 and 1.1290 for the time being, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR is likely to consolidate in the near term24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR rebounded strongly to a high of 1.1194 two days ago. Yesterday, when EUR was at 1.1185, we indicated that it 'could rebound further, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1125/1.1225.' While EUR rose more than expected to 1.1265, it retreated to close modestly lower by 0.09% at 1.1174. There has been no increase in either upward or downward momentum. To put it another way, EUR is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 1.1130 and 1.1230."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned negative on EUR late last week. After EUR fell to 1.1064, in our latest narrative from two days ago (13 May, spot at 1.1095), we highlighted that EUR 'remains under pressure, but it remains to be seen if the current corrective pullback can reach 1.0945.' We added, 'a break above 1.1225 (‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that EUR has entered a consolidation phase. Yesterday, EUR broke above 1.1225, reaching a high of 1.1265. As indicated, EUR has likely entered a consolidation phase. For the time being, we expect it to trade between 1.1100 and 1.1290."

11:36 AUD/JPY slips toward 93.50 due to optimism over potential US-Japan trade agreement
The AUD/JPY pair continues its downward trajectory for the second consecutive day, trading near 93.60 during Thursday’s European session.

11:34 EUR: Staying supported – ING
EUR/USD has found some decent support under 1.11 and we expect that to continue to be the case, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD has found some decent support under 1.11 and we expect that to continue to be the case, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.EUR/USD to trade in a 1.11-1.15 range over the coming weeks"Today's data calendar is very light – just the second reading of eurozone first-quarter GDP – and EUR/USD will again be driven by the dollar story." "Regarding diversification away from the dollar, next week will see the March Balance of Payments data for the eurozone. February data had shown strong equity inflows into the eurozone, and another big purchase in March would support survey findings suggesting a shift in focus toward the region.""We see EUR/USD trading in a 1.11-1.15 range over the coming weeks and months, although risks are skewed to the upside. 1.1265 is now decent intra-day resistance."

11:01 Turkey Budget Balance increased to -174.7B in April from previous -261.5B
Turkey Budget Balance increased to -174.7B in April from previous -261.5B

10:58 WTI drops to near $60.50, crude Oil slides 3% on US-Iran nuclear deal hopes
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price fell by approximately 3% on Thursday, extending the previous session’s losses of over 1%. WTI price is hovering around $60.70 per barrel during European trading hours.

10:29 Pound Sterling gains as UK GDP data beats estimates
The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts bids against its peers in European trading hours on Thursday following the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling gains against its major peers on Thursday after the release of better-than-expected UK GDP data.Manufacturing and Industrial Production declined at a faster pace on a monthly basis in March.Investors await Fed Powell’s speech for fresh interest rate guidance.The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts bids against its peers in European trading hours on Thursday following the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy grew at a robust pace of 0.7% in the January-March period, compared to the estimates of 0.6%. The economy barely expanded in the last quarter of 2024.Year-on-year, the UK’s preliminary GDP growth has reached 1.3% in the first quarter, slightly higher than expectations of 1.2% but slower than the prior release of 1.5%. In March, the UK economy expanded by 0.2%, while economists anticipated a flat performance after a 0.5% growth in February.Higher UK GDP growth reflects a strong economic health, which diminishes hopes of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) and bodes well for the Pound Sterling.On Wednesday, BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann commented in an interview with CNBC that the monetary policy should be kept at their current levels due to upside risks to inflation and solid labor market conditions, Reuters reported. Mann stated that the labor market is strong despite the employment data for the three-month ending in March showing slower job growth on Tuesday. "The first observation is that the labour market has been more resilient. Now, yes, we’ve had some prints that are indicative of a slowing labour market, but it is not a non-linear adjustment,” Mann said.Meanwhile, the UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production data for March has come in weaker than expected. Month-on-month Manufacturing and Industrial Production data declined by 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, while they both were expected to contract by 0.5%.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling outperforms US Dollar ahead of Fed Powell’s speechThe Pound Sterling jumps to near 1.3300 against the US Dollar in European trading hours. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar trades lower ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and the US economic data in the North American session. Investors will pay close attention to Powell’s speech to get cues about any change in the Fed’s stance on the monetary policy outlook after the release of the softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April and a 90-day trade truce between the US and China.On Wednesday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated in his prepared remarks at a New York Fed event that current policy is “moderately restrictive,” adding that it is “well-positioned” amid elevated uncertainty on how new economic policies by US President Donald Trump will shape the economic outlook and drive inflation. Jefferson cheered the latest softer CPI report but warned of uncertainty around the future path of inflation in the wake of tariffs imposed by Washington. "If the increases in tariffs announced so far are sustained, they are likely to interrupt progress on disinflation and generate at least a temporary rise in inflation,” he said.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is unlikely to reduce interest rates anytime before the September policy meeting. The tool also suggests that the central bank would cut borrowing rates two times this year.On the economic data front, the Producer Price Index (PPI) report for April is expected to show that US business owners raised prices of goods and services at a moderate pace. The US headline PPI is estimated to have grown by 2.5% year-on-year, slower than the March reading of 2.7%. In the same period, the core PPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is expected to have risen at a slower pace of 3.1% compared to the prior release of 3.3%. Meanwhile, the Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is expected to stay flat in April compared to the robust increase of 1.5% in March.On Monday, the US and China averted the trade war for 90 days after both agreed to lower tariffs by 115% and expressed confidence of reaching a deal soon.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling rises to near 1.3300The Pound Sterling climbs to near 1.3300 against the US Dollar on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3256, suggesting that the near-term trend is bullish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range. A fresh bullish momentum would appear if the RSI breaks above 60.00.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3000 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:29 Germany’s Klingbeil: EU prepared to act if US tariff talks fail
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told the parliament on Thursday, "we must respond to the US tariffs with unity and determination.”

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told the parliament on Thursday, "we must respond to the US tariffs with unity and determination.”"We expect that the negotiations ... will lead to a good result, but I would also like to make it very clear that we are prepared to act if this does not succeed," he said.

10:26 Forex Today: US Dollar under pressure ahead of key US data, Powell speech
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 15:

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The European economic calendar will feature a revision to Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data for the first quarter. Later in the day, April Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales and weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US will be watched closely by market participants. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on the Fed's framework review at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington, DC. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.34% 0.15% -0.31% 0.59% -0.22% 0.42% 0.43% EUR -0.34% -0.06% -0.10% 0.75% 0.07% 0.57% 0.58% GBP -0.15% 0.06% 0.14% 0.81% 0.14% 0.56% 0.64% JPY 0.31% 0.10% -0.14% 0.87% -0.55% -0.14% 0.49% CAD -0.59% -0.75% -0.81% -0.87% -0.53% -0.17% -0.17% AUD 0.22% -0.07% -0.14% 0.55% 0.53% 0.40% 0.47% NZD -0.42% -0.57% -0.56% 0.14% 0.17% -0.40% -0.02% CHF -0.43% -0.58% -0.64% -0.49% 0.17% -0.47% 0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). After declining sharply in the first half of the day on Wednesday, the USD Index reversed its direction in the American session and closed the day virtually unchanged. Early Thursday, the USD Index stays on the back foot and falls toward 100.50, losing more than 0.3% on the day. Meanwhile, US stock index futures are down between 0.3% and 0.5% in the European morning, reflecting a cautious market stance. Earlier in the day, the data from Australia showed that the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1% in April, as expected. In this period, Employment Change was +89K, compared to the market expectation of +20K. After closing the day in negative territory on Wednesday, AUD/USD holds its ground and edges higher toward 0.6450 on Thursday.The UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Thursday that the GDP expanded at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter. This reading followed the 1.5% growth recorded in the previous quarter and came in better than the market expectation of 1.2%. Other data from the UK showed that Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production contracted by 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, on a monthly basis in March. GBP/USD gains traction in the European session and trades in positive territory near 1.3300.Gold broke below $3,200 and lost more than 2% on Wednesday. XAU/USD extends its weekly decline and trades at its weakest level since April 10 below $3,150 in the European morning, losing nearly 1% on the day. Easing geopolitical tensions seem to be weighing on the precious metal. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that they are getting very close to reaching a nuclear deal with Iran and added that India has offered a trade deal with "basically zero tariffs" to the US.EUR/USD gains traction and trades above 1.1200 after posting small losses on Wednesday. Eurostat will release first-quarter Employment Change and March Industrial Production data in addition to the GDP revision. Several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers will be delivering speeches later in the day.Following a two-day decline, USD/JPY remains under bearish pressure and loses more than 0.5% on the day below 146.00 in the European session on Thursday. Japan’s Cabinet Office will publish Q1 GDP data in the early Asian session on Friday. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

10:25 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: We are going into negotiations with China to prevent escalation again
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday, “we are going into a series of negotiations with China to prevent escalation again.”

10:18 NZD/USD remains stronger near 0.5900 as US Dollar struggles ahead of key economic data
The New Zealand Dollar is drawing support as trade tensions between the US and China show tentative signs of easing.

10:10 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.11, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 95.43.

10:02 US Presi. Trump: I think we are getting very close to getting a deal with Iran
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday, “I think we are getting very close to getting a deal with Iran.”

09:49 EUR/GBP holds positive ground above 0.8400 after UK GDP data
The EUR/GBP cross pares recent gains near 0.8430 during the early European session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher after the release of UK growth numbers.

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) above forecasts (0.6%) in April: Actual (0.7%)
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) above forecasts (0.6%) in April: Actual (0.7%)

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) above forecasts (0.8%) in April: Actual (0.9%)
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) above forecasts (0.8%) in April: Actual (0.9%)

09:45 France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) increased to 0.6% in April from previous 0.2%
France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) increased to 0.6% in April from previous 0.2%

09:33 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $950.05 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $955.70.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $950.05 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $955.70.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $981.59 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also under pressure after the XPT/USD pair settled at $984.30 at the previous close.

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in April
Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in April

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) declined to -0.5% in April from previous -0.1%
Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) declined to -0.5% in April from previous -0.1%

09:17 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.97 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $62.45.

09:01 United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) meets expectations (0.7%) in March
United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) meets expectations (0.7%) in March

09:01 UK Preliminary GDP advances 0.7% QoQ in Q1 2025 vs. 0.6% expected
The UK economy grew 0.7% QoQ in the three months to March 2025, following a 0.1% increase in the final quarter of 2024. The data beat the estimated 0.6% rise in the reported period.

09:01 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance below expectations (£-19.4B) in March: Actual (£-19.869B)
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance below expectations (£-19.4B) in March: Actual (£-19.869B)

09:01 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance declined to £-3.696B in March from previous £-1.956B
United Kingdom Total Trade Balance declined to £-3.696B in March from previous £-1.956B

09:01 United Kingdom Trade Balance; non-EU increased to £-6.834B in March from previous £-8.578B
United Kingdom Trade Balance; non-EU increased to £-6.834B in March from previous £-8.578B

09:01 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) came in at -0.7%, above forecasts (-0.9%) in March
United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) came in at -0.7%, above forecasts (-0.9%) in March

09:00 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) came in at -0.8% below forecasts (-0.5%) in March
United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) came in at -0.8% below forecasts (-0.5%) in March

09:00 United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) came in at 5.9%, above expectations (0.4%) in 1Q
United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) came in at 5.9%, above expectations (0.4%) in 1Q

09:00 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above expectations (0.6%) in 1Q: Actual (0.7%)
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above expectations (0.6%) in 1Q: Actual (0.7%)

09:00 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (1.2%) in 1Q: Actual (1.3%)
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (1.2%) in 1Q: Actual (1.3%)

09:00 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) came in at -0.8% below forecasts (-0.5%) in March
United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) came in at -0.8% below forecasts (-0.5%) in March

09:00 United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY): 8.1% (1Q) vs 1.8%
United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY): 8.1% (1Q) vs 1.8%

09:00 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -0.7%, below expectations (-0.5%) in March
United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -0.7%, below expectations (-0.5%) in March

09:00 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0%) in March
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0%) in March

08:48 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Remains under selling pressure below 194.00, bullish bias prevails
The GBP/JPY cross remains under some selling pressure around 193.85 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid the prospect that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike rates again.

08:44 USD/CHF trades with negative bias around 0.8400, downside potential seems limited
The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Thursday.

08:25 FX option expiries for May 15 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1000 1.2b1.1095 1.2b1.1150 997m1.1165 912m1.1200 1.6bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3500 557mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 145.00 3.2b145.80 731m147.00 1.5b148.00 738mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6475 2.6b0.6500 718mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3900 532m1.4095 550mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5880 1bEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8450 449m0.8550 541m

07:36 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Remains below 1.4000 confluence hurdle ahead of US PPI, Fed's Powell
The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 1.3900 mark and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, lack bearish conviction and currently trade around the 1.3865 area, down less than 0.10% for the day.

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Spot prices, however, lack bearish conviction and currently trade around the 1.3865 area, down less than 0.10% for the day.The US Dollar (USD) bulls remain on the sidelines ahead of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell's appearance, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the USD/CAD pair. However, a further decline in Crude Oil prices for the second straight day undermines the commodity-linked loonie and acts as a tailwind for the currency pair.From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart have started gaining positive traction and suggest that any subsequent slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 1.3935 area. This should limit the downside for the USD/CAD pair near the 1.3900 mark. A convincing break below the latter, however, might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.Against the backdrop of this week's failure near the 1.4000 confluence (comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-May fall), the USD/CAD pair might then weaken to the 1.3855 region. The downward trajectory could extend towards the 1.3800 mark en route to the year-to-date low, around the 1.3750 area.
On the flip side, a sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.4000 round figure could lift the USD/CAD pair beyond the 1.4050 intermediate hurdle, towards the 1.4100 neighborhood. Some follow-through buying would pave the way for a move towards the 1.4100 mark en route to the 1.4145-1.4150 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. level.USD/CAD daily chart Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (YoY) The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Next release: Thu May 15, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.5% Previous: 2.7% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

07:36 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,662.07 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 8,747.56 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 101,032.60 per tola from INR 102,029.80 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,662.07 10 Grams 86,620.67 Tola 101,032.60 Troy Ounce 269,420.60 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to be weighed down by trade optimism and reduced bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts The US and China agreed to slash steep tariffs for at least 90 days. Moreover, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he could see himself dealing directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the details of a trade pact. This helps to ease market concerns about a downturn in the world's largest economy and drags the safe-haven Gold price to over a one-month low on Thursday amid expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Traders are now pricing in a little over 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts for the year, down from over a full percentage point of reductions priced in last month. This lifts the benchmark 10-US Treasury yield to its highest in a month. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that announced tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy could derail any recent progress on inflation. Jefferson added that the recent inflation data show further progress toward the 2% target and described the current policy stance as well-positioned to respond to developments that may arise. Adding to this, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that some parts of the April inflation report represent the lagged nature of the data, and it will take time for current inflation trends to show up in the data. Goolsbee added that right now is a time for the US central bank to wait for more information, try to get past the noise in the data. Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the US economy and the labor market are solid, and inflation is declining. With monetary policy moderately but not overly restrictive, the US central bank can wait to adjust interest rates amid the uncertainty and respond to whatever comes into the economy, Daly added further. The US Dollar bulls, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for the release of the US Producer Price Index, due later during the North American session. Apart from this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance will be looked upon for cues about the future rate-cut path, which will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD pair. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had said he would surely attend the first peace talks with Russia, scheduled this Thursday in Istanbul. The Kremlin, however, announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will skip the meeting. The Israeli military said on Wednesday that it intercepted a missile launched from Yemen towards its territory. In a further escalation of violence in the region, an intense wave of Israeli bombing on Wednesday killed as many as 80 people in Gaza. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, though it does little to lend any support to the precious metal. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:34 EUR/USD treads water near 1.1200 in Asian trading ahead of key Eurozone GDP data
EUR/USD remains firm around 1.1200 during Thursday’s Asian session, recovering daily losses as the Euro (EUR) gains traction ahead of the preliminary Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q1 2025, due later in the day.

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Analysts at Capital Economics noted that the single currency is currently enjoying its strongest position in years to close the gap with the US Dollar (USD) in global reserves. This shift is partly attributed to US President Donald Trump’s policies, which are seen as eroding the Greenback’s traditional safe-haven appeal. Further boosting the Euro’s reserve status, Germany’s move to loosen fiscal constraints to increase defense and public spending has spurred additional demand for the currency.Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to emphasize the need for further interest rate cuts, amid growing confidence that US tariff measures will not significantly raise inflation in the Eurozone. Although lower interest rates typically weigh on the Euro, the currency remains resilient for now.The EUR/USD pair is also finding support from a softer US Dollar, as markets remain cautious amid persistent—albeit slightly eased—trade uncertainties. Attention now turns to upcoming US data releases, including Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI).Adding to the broader context, speculation is growing that Washington may favor a weaker dollar to enhance its trade competitiveness. The Trump administration has argued that an overvalued Greenback puts US exporters at a disadvantage compared to peers with weaker currencies. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Eurostat on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the Eurozone during a certain period of time. The GDP and its main aggregates are among the most significant indicators of the state of any economy. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu May 15, 2025 09:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 1.2% Previous: 1.2% Source: Eurostat

07:30 Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) down to 3.8% in April from previous 3.9%
Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) down to 3.8% in April from previous 3.9%

06:59 Gold price dives to over one-month low, seems vulnerable near $3,150 area
Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower for the second straight day, also marking its third day of a negative move in the previous four, and drops to over one-month low, below the $3,150 level during the Asian session on Thursday.

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The US-China trade optimism undermines the safe-haven bullion amid rising US bond yields.Traders now look to the US PPI and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for a fresh impetus. Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower for the second straight day, also marking its third day of a negative move in the previous four, and drops to over one-month low, below the $3,150 level during the Asian session on Thursday. The optimism led by the de-escalation of a potentially damaging trade war between the US and China – the world's two largest economies – turns out to be a key factor that continues to undermine the safe-haven bullion. Moreover, the US-China trade truce for 90 days eased concerns about a recession in the US and forced investors to pare their bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This remains supportive of a further rise in the US Treasury bond yields and contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish bounce from the weekly low despite the aforementioned supportive fundamental backdrop. This, however, does little to lend any support to the Gold price. Even a slight deterioration in the global risk sentiment, as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, fails to assist the precious metal in attracting any meaningful buyers. Apart from this, the overnight breakdown and close below the $3,200 mark suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside. Traders now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance for cues about the rate-cut path, which should provide a fresh impetus to the commodity.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to be weighed down by trade optimism and reduced bets for aggressive Fed rate cutsThe US and China agreed to slash steep tariffs for at least 90 days. Moreover, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he could see himself dealing directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the details of a trade pact. This helps to ease market concerns about a downturn in the world's largest economy and drags the safe-haven Gold price to over a one-month low on Thursday amid expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Traders are now pricing in a little over 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts for the year, down from over a full percentage point of reductions priced in last month. This lifts the benchmark 10-US Treasury yield to its highest in a month.Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that announced tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy could derail any recent progress on inflation. Jefferson added that the recent inflation data show further progress toward the 2% target and described the current policy stance as well-positioned to respond to developments that may arise.Adding to this, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that some parts of the April inflation report represent the lagged nature of the data, and it will take time for current inflation trends to show up in the data. Goolsbee added that right now is a time for the US central bank to wait for more information, try to get past the noise in the data. Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the US economy and the labor market are solid, and inflation is declining. With monetary policy moderately but not overly restrictive, the US central bank can wait to adjust interest rates amid the uncertainty and respond to whatever comes into the economy, Daly added further. The US Dollar bulls, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for the release of the US Producer Price Index, due later during the North American session. Apart from this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance will be looked upon for cues about the future rate-cut path, which will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD pair. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had said he would surely attend the first peace talks with Russia, scheduled this Thursday in Istanbul. The Kremlin, however, announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will skip the meeting.The Israeli military said on Wednesday that it intercepted a missile launched from Yemen towards its territory. In a further escalation of violence in the region, an intense wave of Israeli bombing on Wednesday killed as many as 80 people in Gaza. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, though it does little to lend any support to the precious metal. Gold price breaks below the 61.8% Fibo. level, seems vulnerable to slide further towards the $3,135-3,133 support zone
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through the $3,200 mark and a subsequent slide below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the strong move up in April could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction, suggesting that the Gold price could extend the fall further towards the $3,135-3,133 support. Some follow-through selling has the potential to drag the XAU/USD pair further towards the $3,100 mark, which, if broken, might expose the next relevant support near the $3,060 region.On the flip side, attempted recovery above the $3,168-3,170 region (61.8% Fibo. level) might now confront stiff resistance ahead of the $3,200 mark, or the Asian session peak. Any further move up might now be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the $3,230 area, or the 50% retracement level. The latter should act as a pivotal point, above which a fresh bout of short-covering move could lift the Gold price to the $3,265 intermediate hurdle en route to the $3,300 round figure (38.2% Fibo. level). Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:57 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD breaks below $32.00 with developing bearish bias
Silver price (XAG/USD) is extending its losses for the second successive session, trading around $31.90 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday.

06:45 USD/INR softens ahead of US Retail Sales, PPI releases
The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Thursday. The de-escalation of a trade war between the United States (US) and China, along with the fall in Crude oil prices and the weakness of the US Dollar (USD), provides some support to the Indian currency.

06:01 GBP/USD edges higher to near 1.3300, recovers due to weaker US Dollar
GBP/USD is rebounding from recent losses, trading near 1.3280 during the Asian session on Thursday. The pair is supported by a softer US Dollar (USD), as investors weigh ongoing trade-related uncertainties despite a slight easing in tensions.

06:00 South Korea Money Supply Growth down to 4.9% in March from previous 5.6%
South Korea Money Supply Growth down to 4.9% in March from previous 5.6%

05:36 US Dollar Index holds losses below 101.00 ahead of key US economic data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 100.90 during Thursday's Asian session. The Greenback remains under pressure as investors assess ongoing trade-related uncertainties, despite a recent easing in tensions.

05:26 NZD/USD gathers strength to near 0.5900 ahead of US Retail Sales, PPI data
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory near 0.5900 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the Greenback due to improved risk sentiment.

05:11 Japanese Yen seems poised to appreciate further amid hawkish BoJ expectations
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades with a positive bias against its American counterpart for the third straight day on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's late pullback from the weekly high.

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The emergence of fresh USD selling further exerts downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades with a positive bias against its American counterpart for the third straight day on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's late pullback from the weekly high. Japan's wholesale inflation data released on Wednesday indicated that companies continued to pass on costs to consumers and added to fears of more entrenched price increases in Japan. This is expected to keep the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on track to raise interest rates further, which, in turn, is seen underpinning the JPY. Moreover, a slight deterioration in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a softer tone around the equity markets – turns out to be another factor that benefits the safe-haven JPY. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, drags the USD/JPY pair back closer to the 146.00 mark during the Asian session. Meanwhile, the optimism led by the 90-day US-China tariff truce might cap the JPY. Moreover, reduced bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could support the USD and the currency pair. Japanese Yen bulls retain control amid BoJ rate hike bets and cautious market moodJapan's Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Wednesday highlighted persistent price pressure and backs the case for further monetary policy normalization by the Bank of Japan. Moreover, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated that the central bank will keep raising rates if the economy and prices improve as projected. Meanwhile, investors turned cautious ahead of Thursday's release of the US Producer Price Index and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's appearance later during the North American session. This further contributes to the Japanese Yen's relative outperformance against its American counterpart for the third consecutive day. In the meantime, a softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index released on Tuesday reaffirmed market bets that the Fed will cut interest rates further. This, in turn, fails to assist the US Dollar to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the weekly low and further contributes to the offered tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair. Traders, however, have scaled back their expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed in the wake of the US-China trade optimism, which helped to ease recession fears. This might hold back the USD bears from placing fresh bets and keep a lid on any further appreciating move for the safe-haven JPY.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that some parts of the April inflation report represent the lagged nature of the data, and it will take time for current inflation trends to show up in the data. Right now is a time for the Fed to wait for more information, try to get past the noise in the data, Goolsbee added further. Separately, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that the recent inflation data is consistent with further progress toward the 2% goal, but the future path remains uncertain due to trade tariffs. Jefferson also noted that the current moderately restrictive policy rate is in a good place to respond to economic developments.Furthermore, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that solid growth, a solid labor market, and declining inflation are where we want to be. Monetary policy is well-positioned, moderately restrictive, and the Fed can respond to whatever comes into the economy, Daly added further. USD/JPY could slide further below 146.00 and retest the weekly low set on WednesdayFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recovery from the year-to-date low set in April. Moreover, negative oscillators on hourly charts support prospects for a further intraday slide below the 146.00 mark, towards retesting the 145.60 area or the weekly low set on Wednesday. This is followed by the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 145.35-145.30 region, below which spot prices could fall to the 145.00 psychological mark en route to the 144.70-144.65 zone. The latter represents the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance breakpoint on the 4-hour chart and should act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below will suggest that the recent recovery from the year-to-date low has run out of steam and pave the way for deeper losses.On the flip side, the 146.60 area (23.6% Fibo. level) could offer immediate resistance ahead of the 147.000 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger an intraday short-covering rally and lift the USD/JPY pair to the 147.70 intermediate hurdle en route to the 148.00 round figure. Any further move up beyond the 148.25-148.30 hurdle might face stiff resistance near the 148.65 area, or over a one-month peak touched on Monday, which, if cleared, should allow spot prices to reclaim the 149.00 mark. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

04:47 Australian Dollar edges higher following employment data release
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after registering more than 0.50% losses in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair gained ground as easing global trade tensions boosted demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie Dollar.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar strengthened as improving global trade sentiment lifted risk appetite.Australia’s Employment Change report showed 89,000 new jobs added in April, significantly exceeding the forecast of 20,000.Easing global trade tensions have dampened market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after registering more than 0.50% losses in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair gained ground as easing global trade tensions boosted demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie Dollar.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Thursday that Employment Change rose to 89,000 in April, up from 36,400 in March and well above the expected 20,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1% in April, unchanged from the previous month.A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Shamkhani, stated on Wednesday that Iran is prepared to sign a nuclear agreement with US President Donald Trump. According to NBC, the offer includes Iran’s commitment to never develop nuclear weapons in exchange for the immediate lifting of all US economic sanctions.Over the weekend, the US and China reached a preliminary agreement during trade talks in Switzerland to substantially roll back tariffs. Under the terms of the deal, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. This development is widely seen as a significant step toward de-escalating the trade conflict.Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar struggles over improved risk appetiteThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 100.90 at the time of writing. Traders will keep an eye on the release of the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for April later on Thursday.Easing global trade tensions have boosted optimism, leading traders to reduce the perceived risk of a recession. This shift may offer some support to the US Dollar. Market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year have also softened. According to LSEG data, there is now a 74% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September, down from earlier projections that anticipated a cut as soon as July.US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-over-year in April, slightly below the 2.4% increase recorded in March and market expectations of 2.4%. Core CPI—which excludes food and energy—also climbed 2.8% annually, matching both the previous figure and forecasts. On a monthly basis, both headline CPI and core CPI rose by 0.2% in April.US President Donald Trump told Fox News that he is working to gain greater access to China, describing the relationship as excellent and expressing willingness to negotiate directly with President Xi on a potential deal.China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined for the third consecutive month in April, falling 0.1% year-on-year, matching both the market forecast and the drop recorded in March, according to data released Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted 2.7% YoY in April, steeper than the 2.5% drop in March and below the market expectation of a 2.6% decline.Australia's seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index rose by 3.4% year-over-year in Q1 2025, up from a 3.2% increase in Q1 2024 and surpassing market forecasts of a 3.2% gain. This marks a recovery from the prior quarter, which recorded the slowest wage growth since Q3 2022. On a quarterly basis, the index climbed 0.9% in Q1, surpassing the projected 0.8% rise.Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was sworn in for a second term on Tuesday after a decisive election victory. Key cabinet positions—including treasurer, foreign affairs, defense, and trade—remain unchanged. Albanese is scheduled to attend the inauguration Mass of Pope Leo XIV in Rome on Sunday, where he will also meet with leaders such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to discuss trade relations.Easing global trade tensions have prompted investors to dial back expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts in Australia. Markets now project the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to reduce the cash rate to approximately 3.1% by year-end, a revision from earlier forecasts of 2.85%. Nevertheless, the RBA is still widely expected to proceed with a 25 basis point cut at its upcoming policy meeting.Australian Dollar advances to near 0.6450; rebounds from levels around nine-day EMAAUD/USD is hovering near 0.6440 on Thursday. Daily chart analysis suggests a bullish bias, with the pair holding above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 threshold, supporting the positive momentum.On the upside, the pair could potentially retest the six-month high of 0.6515, last seen on December 2, 2024. A sustained move beyond this level might set the stage for a rally toward the seven-month high of 0.6687, marked in November 2024.The initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA around 0.6429, followed by the 50-day EMA near 0.6355. A firm break below these levels may weaken the short- to medium-term outlook and open the path for a deeper decline toward 0.5914 — a level last reached in March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.22% -0.16% -0.38% -0.11% -0.29% -0.18% -0.35% EUR 0.22% 0.05% -0.16% 0.10% -0.07% 0.05% -0.14% GBP 0.16% -0.05% -0.21% 0.05% -0.13% 0.02% -0.16% JPY 0.38% 0.16% 0.21% 0.29% 0.11% 0.21% 0.05% CAD 0.11% -0.10% -0.05% -0.29% -0.17% -0.04% -0.21% AUD 0.29% 0.07% 0.13% -0.11% 0.17% 0.12% -0.02% NZD 0.18% -0.05% -0.02% -0.21% 0.04% -0.12% -0.16% CHF 0.35% 0.14% 0.16% -0.05% 0.21% 0.02% 0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Employment Change s.a. The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. The statistic is adjusted to remove the influence of seasonal trends. Generally speaking, a rise in Employment Change has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulates economic growth, and is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). A low reading, on the other hand, is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu May 15, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 89K Consensus: 20K Previous: 32.2K Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

04:30 Australia Part-Time Employment rose from previous 17.2K to 29.5K in April
Australia Part-Time Employment rose from previous 17.2K to 29.5K in April

04:30 Australia Participation Rate above expectations (66.8%) in April: Actual (67.1%)
Australia Participation Rate above expectations (66.8%) in April: Actual (67.1%)

04:30 Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. meets forecasts (4.1%) in April
Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. meets forecasts (4.1%) in April

04:30 Australia Full-Time Employment: 59.5K (April) vs 15K
Australia Full-Time Employment: 59.5K (April) vs 15K

04:30 Australia Employment Change s.a. came in at 89K, above expectations (20K) in April
Australia Employment Change s.a. came in at 89K, above expectations (20K) in April

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1963 vs. 7.1956 previous
On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1963 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1956 and 7.2217 Reuters estimate.

04:03 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.1% (May) vs previous 4.2%
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.1% (May) vs previous 4.2%

03:52 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD posts modest gains above $3,150 on better risk appetite
The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $3,180 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the yellow metal might be capped in the near term due to better risk appetite and progress in trade talks.

03:10 Top Iranian official says Tehran is ready to sign a nuclear deal if sanctions lifted
A top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Shamkhani, said late Wednesday that Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with certain conditions with US President Donald Trump in exchange for lifting economic sanctions, per NBC.

02:59 WTI slumps to near $61.50 on higher US stockpiles
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $61.55 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price tumbles amid a surprise rise in US crude oil inventories and renewed demand concerns.

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥439B in May 2 from previous ¥278.3B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥439B in May 2 from previous ¥278.3B

02:30 EUR/USD middles as markets wait for a reason to move
EUR/USD trimmed momentum sharply on Wednesday, sticking to a flat holding pattern near the 1.1200 handle despite an early pop in bids. European economic data has been largely a non-starter this week, as is typical.

02:12 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Slides as bearish engulfing pattern signals a pullback looms
The GBP/JPY retreated on Wednesday, losing over 0.82% after hitting a weekly high of 196.39 earlier during the Asian session. As Thursday's Asian session begins, the GBP/JPY trades at 194.48 flat.

02:11 USD/CAD edges lower below 1.4000 on softer US Dollar, eyes on US hard data
The USD/CAD pair loses ground to near 1.3975 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by a weaker US Dollar (USD). The US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for April will be the highlights later on Thursday, along with the speech from the Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell.

02:09 GBP/USD contracts into near-term midrange ahead of key UK and US data
GBP/USD pared recent gains on Wednesday, trimming back to the low side of the 1.3300 handle and falling back into a choppy near-term consolidation phase as investors buckle down for Thursday’s double feature of key data prints from both the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US).

01:49 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD drops over 2% on high US yields, hovers near $32.00
Silver price fell 2% on Wednesday amid elevated US Treasury bond yields as investors seemed confident that the US Federal Reserve would not reduce interest rates. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $32.20, unchanged as the Asian session begins.

01:42 Fed's Daly: US economy still solid, officials can be patient
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said late Wednesday that the strength of the US economy allows policymakers to be patient as they wait for more evidence of how the US President Donald Trump’s policies will affect businesses and households, per Bloomberg.

01:00 AUD/NZD price analysis: Aussie holds near 1.0900 as bullish tone persists
The AUD/NZD pair held near the 1.0900 zone on Wednesday, reflecting a steady bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session. Price action remains close to the top of its daily range, suggesting that buyers maintain control despite some mixed momentum signals.

AUD/NZD trades around the 1.0900 zone with limited movement in Wednesday’s session.Mixed signals from momentum indicators, though shorter-term averages favor buyers.Key support levels sit below, while resistance aligns near recent highs.The AUD/NZD pair held near the 1.0900 zone on Wednesday, reflecting a steady bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session. Price action remains close to the top of its daily range, suggesting that buyers maintain control despite some mixed momentum signals. The broader technical outlook remains supported by shorter-term moving averages, though longer-term resistance levels continue to pose a challenge.From a technical perspective, the pair presents a cautiously bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index is in the 60s, indicating neutral conditions without immediate overbought pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence confirms the broader uptrend with a buy signal, reinforcing the positive tone. However, both the Williams Percent Range and Stochastic RSI Fast are signaling overbought conditions, highlighting the potential for a near-term pullback if recent gains fail to hold.The moving averages provide a more supportive backdrop. The 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, both positioned near current price levels, reinforce the buy sentiment, reflecting solid short-term support. The 20-day Simple Moving Average also supports the bullish tone, though the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages remain above current levels, suggesting that broader selling pressure may still limit upside potential over the medium term.Support levels are located near 1.0870, 1.0870, and 1.0860. Resistance is found at 1.0910, 1.0920, and 1.0950. A break above the immediate resistance zone could confirm a broader breakout, while a move below support might trigger a short-term correction, potentially testing the lower end of the recent range.Daily Chart

00:30 AUD/USD mixed technical signals amid fundamental headwinds
The AUD/USD pair is trading near the lower end of its daily range, reflecting a mixed technical outlook.

The AUD/USD pair remains near the bottom of its daily range, reflecting cautious sentiment amid mixed technical signals.US inflation data and currency policy discussions between the US and South Korea continue to weigh on the broader US Dollar.Key technical levels include support around 0.6420 and resistance near 0.6459, with momentum indicators reflecting a neutral bias.The AUD/USD pair is trading near the lower end of its daily range, reflecting a mixed technical outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has dipped toward the 100.60 area, pressured by soft US inflation data and speculation about a possible dovish shift from the Federal Reserve (Fed). US officials recently downplayed speculation about a deliberate dollar-weakening strategy, but concerns persist as trade discussions with South Korea suggest room for stronger local currencies. This uncertainty has contributed to broader US Dollar weakness, affecting pairs like AUD/USD.Technical AnalysisFrom a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair maintains a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals bearish momentum. The Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14) and Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) also reflect neutral conditions, with both indicators sitting in the 30s and 40s, respectively. Meanwhile, the 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) provide buy signals, contrasting with the 200-day SMA’s bearish outlook. The 10-day and 30-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) reinforce this split, aligning with the short-term bullish sentiment but conflicting with the longer-term outlook.Support levels are noted around 0.6420, 0.6415, and 0.6413, while resistance lies near 0.6430 and 0.6459, suggesting the pair is currently caught in a tight range. A breakout above the 0.6459 level could confirm renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below 0.6413 might signal a deeper correction.Daily Chart

00:30 Unemployment rate in Australia expected to hold steady at 4.1% in April
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the April monthly employment report at 01:30 GMT on Thursday. The country is expected to have added 20K new job positions, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%.

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AUD/USD pressures the upper end of its latest range, aims for a bullish breakout.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the April monthly employment report at 01:30 GMT on Thursday. The country is expected to have added 20K new job positions, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%. Ahead of the announcement, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades near the 0.6500 level against the US Dollar (USD), flirting with the year high posted early May at 0.6514.The ABS Employment Change separately reports full-time and part-time jobs. According to its definition, full-time jobs imply working 38 or more hours per week and usually include additional benefits, but they mostly represent consistent income. On the other hand, part-time employment generally offers higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. This is why full-time jobs are given more weight than part-time ones when setting the directional path for the AUD. In March, Australia created 32.2K new job positions, adding 15K new full-time positions and 17.2K part-time ones. Australian Unemployment Rate seen steady in AprilThe Australian Unemployment Rate has held around 4% since April 2024, easing towards 3.9% in November and peaking at 4.1% in January 2025. Despite standing at the upper end of the range, unemployment levels in Australia are becoming less of a concern. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met on April 1, leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.10%. According to its definition, the RBA's duty is to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.In its latest meeting, RBA officials noted that “labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.”Other than that, policymakers stated: “Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy. Nevertheless, the Board needs to be confident that this progress will continue so that inflation returns to the midpoint of the target band on a sustainable basis. It is therefore cautious about the outlook.”With that in mind, it seems unlikely that the upcoming monthly employment report could have a broad impact on the RBA’s monetary policy path. It’s worth noting that the central bank will meet once again on May 20. In the meantime, global trade tensions receded, bolstering AUD demand. China and the United States (US) agreed to drastically reduce tit-for-tat tariffs for 90 days, aiming to clinch, in the meantime, a more reasonable trade deal. It may be too early to claim victory on the matter, but at least the headlines maintained the market’s mood tilted to positive, which should provide additional support to the AUD. When will the Australian employment report be released and how could it affect AUD/USD?The ABS will publish the April employment report early on Thursday. As previously stated, Australia is expected to have added 20K new job positions in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.1%. Finally, the Participation Rate is expected to hold at 66.8%.Generally speaking, a better-than-anticipated employment report will boost the AUD, even if the more significant increase comes from part-time jobs. However, the advance could be more sustainable if the increase comes from full-time positions. The opposite scenario is also valid, with soft figures weighing on the Australian currency. Ahead of the announcement, the AUD/USD pair trades not far below the aforementioned yearly high. According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, “further AUD/USD gains are likely, but will depend on the market’s sentiment, rather than on employment data, particularly if the figures result within expectations.”Bednarik adds: “Despite being near a multi-month high, the AUD/USD pair lacks clear upward momentum, and, on the contrary, remains within a clear consolidative range between 0.6350 and 0.6510. Technical readings in the daily chart reflect the neutral stance, as moving averages stand pretty much flat. Still, the pair is currently above the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which develops above the 20 and 100 SMAs, which skews the risk to the upside. The same chart shows technical indicators lost their upward strength but hold within positive levels, also aligned with upward risks.”“Gains beyond the top of the range within a risk-on environment could push the pair towards the 0.6600 mark in the near term. Gains beyond the latter would be more related to broad USD weakness than AUD strength, with near-term resistance at 0.6630 and the 0.6670 price zone. Support, on the other hand, comes at 0.6420 and 0.6370, with buyers likely to reappear around the latter.” Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

00:09 Mexican Peso hits 7-month high amid weak US Dollar, eyes on Banxico
The Mexican Peso (MXN) extended its gains on Wednesday, hitting a seven-month high against the US Dollar (USD) as the latter retreated somewhat amid an improvement in market sentiment fueled by the US-China trade truce. At the time of writing, USD/MXN trades at 19.39, down 0.98%.

00:00 NZD/JPY price analysis: Cross retreats near daily lows ahead of Asian session
The NZD/JPY cross is trading near the 86.50 zone on Wednesday, down approximately 1% as it approaches the lower end of its daily range ahead of the Asian session.

NZD/JPY trades near the 86.50 zone, under pressure despite a broader bullish outlook.Momentum signals are mixed, with short-term averages supporting the upside but longer-term signals introducing caution.Key support rests around 86.20, with resistance near 87.20 and 87.60.The NZD/JPY cross is trading near the 86.50 zone on Wednesday, down approximately 1% as it approaches the lower end of its daily range ahead of the Asian session. Despite maintaining a broader bullish signal, the cross has faced selling pressure, reflecting a mixed technical landscape as traders navigate recent volatility.From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, reflecting neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates ongoing buy momentum, offering a more supportive tone for the cross. However, the Awesome Oscillator, sitting around 2, suggests a lack of clear directional strength, aligning with the broader mixed sentiment.Adding to this cautious tone, the Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) and Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14) both remain in the 80s, signaling overbought conditions and hinting at potential near-term selling pressure. Despite this, the 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) continue to support the buy side, as do the 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA, both aligned in the 80s, reinforcing the overall positive outlook.Immediate support is identified around 86.23, followed by deeper levels at 86.21 and 86.18. On the upside, resistance is expected near 87.21, with stronger barriers at 87.62 and 87.96, potentially capping gains in the short term.Daily Chart

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22:27 NZD/USD dips as cautious Fed tone and weak NZ backdrop pressure pair The NZD/USD is trading around the 0.5900 level on Thursday, facing renewed pressure amid cautious investor sentiment and diverging macroeconomic signals.

22:03 Banxico cuts rates by 50-basis points as expected, to 8.50% On Thursday, Banco de Mexico (Banxico) reduced interest rates by 50 baisis points from 9% to 8.50% on an unanimous vote.

22:00 Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (8.5%) Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (8.5%)

21:57 Forex Today: US, Japan data gathers attention The US Dollar resumed its downward trajectory on Thursday, weighed by another soft inflation print—this time from Producer Prices—and a mixed batch of US economic data.

21:55 GBP/JPY slides as Yen firms on risk aversion with Japan GDP in focus GBP/JPY is under pressure on Thursday as safe-haven demand drives renewed strength in the Japanese Yen (JPY).

21:48 Canadian Dollar middles as Loonie flows get pulled in both directions The Canadian Dollar (CAD) went nowhere fast on Thursday, with the Loonie struggling to find momentum on either side.

21:08 US Dollar dips after mixed US data fails to lift sentiment The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, is trading just under 101.00 on Thursday after key US economic data releases offered little upside momentum.

20:47 USD/JPY weakens as soft US data and dovish Fed tone bolster Yen demand The Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining ground against the US Dollar (USD) in Thursday’s US session, with USD/JPY extending its downward trajectory amid sustained pressure on the Greenback.

20:13 USD/CHF holds near multi-week lows amid mixed US data USD/CHF remains pressured near the 0.8360 level on Thursday, extending its consolidation within this week’s range. The pair is struggling to gain traction amid mixed US economic data and a resilient Swiss economy.

19:43 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds as buyers defend key support levels Silver prices are recovering from earlier lows, supported by renewed demand at technical support levels.

19:05 EUR/JPY retreats for second day as Yen strengthens, Euro weighed by softer growth revision EUR/JPY extended its pullback for a second consecutive session on Thursday, falling 0.5% to trade around 163.00, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) gaining traction on safe-haven flows.

18:37 United States 4-Week Bill Auction dipped from previous 4.225% to 4.22% United States 4-Week Bill Auction dipped from previous 4.225% to 4.22%

17:33 NZD/USD drops on New Zealand fiscal plans, Powell comments, mixed US data The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, pressured by a stronger Greenback and cautious investor reaction to recent macroeconomic developments.

17:30 EUR/GBP inches lower, tests 200-day EMA as UK GDP tops forecasts EUR/GBP is trading slightly lower near 0.8420 at the time of writing on Thursday, retreating from the previous day’s highs as the pair tests the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change in line with expectations (110B) in May 9 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change in line with expectations (110B) in May 9

17:00 United States Business Inventories below forecasts (0.2%) in March: Actual (0.1%) United States Business Inventories below forecasts (0.2%) in March: Actual (0.1%)

17:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (40) in May: Actual (34) United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (40) in May: Actual (34)

16:45 Gold consolidates despite ETF outflows – TDS Chinese ETFs sold roughly -64koz last session, more than offsetting the +27koz inflows from global x-China ETFs.

16:15 United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 0% below forecasts (0.2%) in April United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 0% below forecasts (0.2%) in April

16:15 United States Capacity Utilization registered at 77.7%, below expectations (77.8%) in April United States Capacity Utilization registered at 77.7%, below expectations (77.8%) in April

16:08 USD/CHF corrects lower on upbeat Swiss GDP, mixed US economic data The USD/CHF pair drifts lower, extending its consolidation within the current week’s range and trading near 0.8360 at the time of writing on Thursday.

16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $680.2B to $687.3B Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $680.2B to $687.3B

15:48 India Trade Deficit Government: $26.42B (April) vs $21.54B India Trade Deficit Government: $26.42B (April) vs $21.54B

15:46 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) remains at 0.6% in April United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) remains at 0.6% in April

15:31 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in March Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in March

15:31 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.881M, below expectations (1.89M) in May 2 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.881M, below expectations (1.89M) in May 2

15:30 United States Retail Sales (YoY) up to 5.2% in April from previous 4.6% United States Retail Sales (YoY) up to 5.2% in April from previous 4.6%

15:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) meets forecasts (3.1%) in April United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) meets forecasts (3.1%) in April

15:30 United States Retail Sales Control Group fell from previous 0.4% to -0.2% in April United States Retail Sales Control Group fell from previous 0.4% to -0.2% in April

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average increased to 230.5K in May 9 from previous 227K United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average increased to 230.5K in May 9 from previous 227K

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims in line with forecasts (229K) in May 9 United States Initial Jobless Claims in line with forecasts (229K) in May 9

15:30 United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in April United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in April

15:30 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey above expectations (-11) in May: Actual (-4) United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey above expectations (-11) in May: Actual (-4)

15:30 United States Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.1% above expectations (0%) in April United States Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.1% above expectations (0%) in April

15:30 United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.4% below forecasts (2.5%) in April United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.4% below forecasts (2.5%) in April

15:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -9.2, above expectations (-10) in May United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -9.2, above expectations (-10) in May

15:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in April: Actual (-0.4%) United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in April: Actual (-0.4%)

15:30 United States Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in April: Actual (-0.5%) United States Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in April: Actual (-0.5%)

15:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) registered at 278.6K above expectations (227.5K) in April Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) registered at 278.6K above expectations (227.5K) in April

15:14 Mexican Peso holds ground ahead of Banxico, Fed Powell’s remarks The Mexican Peso (MXN) holds steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as markets brace for a pivotal session driven by monetary policy developments in both Mexico and the United States.

15:00 Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (1%) in March: Actual (0.8%) Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (1%) in March: Actual (0.8%)

14:36 India M3 Money Supply dipped from previous 9.6% to 9.5% in April 28 India M3 Money Supply dipped from previous 9.6% to 9.5% in April 28

14:09 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Extends losing streak for third trading day The USD/JPY pair extends its losing spree for the third trading day on Thursday.

13:43 USD/JPY is under pressure from US/South Korea talks – OCBC USD/JPY continued to trade lower. Pair was last at 145.91 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

13:42 AUD/USD edges lower despite strong Australia jobs report The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower, retreating to near 0.6400 against the US Dollar (USD) at the time of writing on Thursday, erasing early Asian session gains following a stellar Australian jobs report.

13:04 NZD/USD: No significant increase in momentum – UOB Group New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could decline vs US Dollar (USD), but as there is no significant increase in momentum, it is unlikely to be able to break clearly below 0.5860.

12:43 AUD/USD faces resistance despite strong jobs report – BBH AUD/USD is struggling to sustain a break above its 200-day moving average at 0.6455. Australia’s labor market remains strong and bodes well for AUD, BBH's FX analysts report.

12:32 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:28 EUR/USD gives up some initial gains on further de-escalation in US-China trade war EUR/USD gives back half of its intraday gains during European trading hours on Thursday. Still, the major currency pair is 0.2% higher, trading just above 1.1200 at the time of writing.

12:13 Gold sinks as geopolitics, trade war optimism hurt safe-haven demand Gold (XAU/USD) slides towards $3,146 at the time of writing on Thursday after another slew of headlines from United States (US) President Donald Trump that led traders to flee from safe-haven assets.

12:06 USD/MXN confirms rounding top – Societe Generale USD/MXN has broken below key multi-month support, forming a bearish rounding top pattern and signaling potential downside toward 19.10 and 18.70, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

12:04 USD/CAD steadies near 1.4000, rebounds as crude Oil weakness weighs on Canadian Dollar USD/CAD stabilized around 1.3980 during Thursday’s European trading hours, recovering earlier losses as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) came under pressure due to declining crude Oil prices.

12:02 Eurozone GDP rises 0.3% QoQ in Q1 2025 vs. 0.4% preliminary estimate The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1), undermining the preliminary reading of 0.4%, according to the second estimate released by Eurostat on Thursday.

12:00 Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) in line with expectations (0.8%) in 1Q Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) in line with expectations (0.8%) in 1Q

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) meets forecasts (1.2%) in 1Q Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) meets forecasts (1.2%) in 1Q

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) registered at 0.3%, below expectations (0.4%) in 1Q Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) registered at 0.3%, below expectations (0.4%) in 1Q

12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) above forecasts (2.5%) in March: Actual (3.6%) Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) above forecasts (2.5%) in March: Actual (3.6%)

12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.8%) in March: Actual (2.6%) Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.8%) in March: Actual (2.6%)

12:00 Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) above forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q: Actual (0.3%) Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) above forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q: Actual (0.3%)

11:55 EUR/USD breaks below 1.12 as USD rebounds on trade commitment headlines – Danske Bank EUR/USD slipped below 1.12 as a Bloomberg report helped the USD recover ground, but confidence in the greenback remains fragile ahead of key US data releases, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

11:36 AUD/JPY slips toward 93.50 due to optimism over potential US-Japan trade agreement The AUD/JPY pair continues its downward trajectory for the second consecutive day, trading near 93.60 during Thursday’s European session.

11:34 EUR: Staying supported – ING EUR/USD has found some decent support under 1.11 and we expect that to continue to be the case, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:01 Turkey Budget Balance increased to -174.7B in April from previous -261.5B Turkey Budget Balance increased to -174.7B in April from previous -261.5B

10:58 WTI drops to near $60.50, crude Oil slides 3% on US-Iran nuclear deal hopes West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price fell by approximately 3% on Thursday, extending the previous session’s losses of over 1%. WTI price is hovering around $60.70 per barrel during European trading hours.

10:29 Pound Sterling gains as UK GDP data beats estimates The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts bids against its peers in European trading hours on Thursday following the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

10:29 Germany’s Klingbeil: EU prepared to act if US tariff talks fail German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told the parliament on Thursday, "we must respond to the US tariffs with unity and determination.”

10:26 Forex Today: US Dollar under pressure ahead of key US data, Powell speech Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 15:

10:25 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: We are going into negotiations with China to prevent escalation again US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday, “we are going into a series of negotiations with China to prevent escalation again.”

10:18 NZD/USD remains stronger near 0.5900 as US Dollar struggles ahead of key economic data The New Zealand Dollar is drawing support as trade tensions between the US and China show tentative signs of easing.

10:02 US Presi. Trump: I think we are getting very close to getting a deal with Iran US President Donald Trump said on Thursday, “I think we are getting very close to getting a deal with Iran.”

09:49 EUR/GBP holds positive ground above 0.8400 after UK GDP data The EUR/GBP cross pares recent gains near 0.8430 during the early European session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher after the release of UK growth numbers.

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) above forecasts (0.6%) in April: Actual (0.7%) France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) above forecasts (0.6%) in April: Actual (0.7%)

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) above forecasts (0.8%) in April: Actual (0.9%) France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) above forecasts (0.8%) in April: Actual (0.9%)

09:45 France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) increased to 0.6% in April from previous 0.2% France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) increased to 0.6% in April from previous 0.2%

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in April Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in April

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) declined to -0.5% in April from previous -0.1% Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) declined to -0.5% in April from previous -0.1%

09:17 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.97 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $62.45.

09:01 United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) meets expectations (0.7%) in March United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) meets expectations (0.7%) in March

09:01 UK Preliminary GDP advances 0.7% QoQ in Q1 2025 vs. 0.6% expected The UK economy grew 0.7% QoQ in the three months to March 2025, following a 0.1% increase in the final quarter of 2024. The data beat the estimated 0.6% rise in the reported period.