ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

พุธ, เมษายน 23, 2025

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, holding close to the 0.6400 area after a volatile session. The pair consolidated within a tight range of 0.6349 to 0.6436, reflecting a pause in directional conviction.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The AUD/USD trades flat around the 0.6400 zone as the US Dollar struggles to hold gains after weak business activity data.The US Composite PMI fell to 51.2, services lost steam, and Bessent said US tariffs may drop “mutually,” driving risk appetite.Technicals show bullish bias; support lies around 0.6347 while resistance emerges at 0.6395 and above.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, holding close to the 0.6400 area after a volatile session. The pair consolidated within a tight range of 0.6349 to 0.6436, reflecting a pause in directional conviction. This comes after a turbulent 24 hours for the Greenback, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) erased its early pop toward the 100.00 mark and settled near 99.50. Market sentiment was dented by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments suggesting that current tariffs with China are unsustainable and may decline “in a mutual way.” Meanwhile, S&P Global’s preliminary April Composite PMI showed slower business activity growth, with the services sector losing traction.Daily digest market movers: Markets digest fresh US dataThe DXY failed to sustain gains despite touching the 100.00 level early Wednesday, retreating to the 99.50 region by the end of the session. The pullback came after Treasury Secretary Bessent refrained from offering a timeline for new tariff discussions with China and noted that any talks would happen at levels below Trump and Xi. He added that current tariff revenues would fall short of funding TCJA tax cuts, raising fiscal concerns.The S&P Global flash PMI for April indicated a broader loss of momentum in US economic activity. The Composite PMI fell to 51.2 from 53.5, driven by a decline in services to 51.4. Manufacturing slightly improved to 50.7, but overall sentiment weakened. Inflation pressures persisted, complicating the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease policy.Risk assets showed mixed responses. US equities slid from highs on tariff uncertainty but later recovered some ground. Meanwhile, Gold dipped below $3,300 and the US 10-year yield remained under pressure. Crude oil prices dropped to four-day lows, while Silver rose to multi-week highs.In currencies, EUR/USD and GBP/USD both retreated, weighed down by Greenback strength and soft European data. The yen weakened as USD/JPY broke above the 143.00 level, boosted by US rate expectations.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD holds firm near 0.6400, bulls remain in control
The AUD/USD pair shows a steady performance near the 0.6400 level, with price action hovering around the midpoint of the intraday range (0.6349 to 0.6436). The technical outlook favors further upside.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56.01, suggesting neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms a bullish signal, aligning with broader trend strength. The Stochastic %K at 89.16 and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 80.84 remain neutral.Short-term trend indicators reinforce the bullish case. The 10-day EMA (0.6337), 10-day SMA (0.6347), 20-day SMA (0.6267), and 100-day SMA (0.6285) are all aligned to the upside. The 200-day SMA at 0.6472, however, continues to act as longer-term resistance.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) registered modest losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday amid an improvement in risk appetite and regained confidence in the Greenback as US President Donald Trump denied that he would remove Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.

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At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.65, up 0.29%.The markets remain digesting recent news that US President Donald Trump tempered his attacks on Powell alongside softening its tariff stance on China, aiming to strike a deal with Beijing. The Wall Street Journal revealed that Washington is considering reducing duties on China, though Trump warned that “it wouldn’t be zero.”Wall Street cheered the breaking news, though later US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that Trump has not offered to lower tariffs on China unilaterally.In Mexico, Retail Sales in February were lower than expected, according to monthly and annual data from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI). Meanwhile, Citi Mexico revealed its latest expectations survey, in which 34 economists updated their forecasts on economic growth, inflation, the USD/MXN exchange rate and Banco de Mexico (Banxico) monetary policy.Ahead in Mexico’s economic docket traders brace for the release of Mid-month inflation, and Economic Activity data.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso loses steam as economists expect Banxico’s cutThe central bank divergence between Banco de Mexico (Banxico) and the Fed favors further upside in USD/MXN. Banxico’s Governing Council expressed its decision to continue easing the policy. Conversely, the Fed is considered cautious, as some officials have shown concerns about a reacceleration of inflation spurred by tariffs.Mexico’s Retail Sales in February dipped from 0.7% to 0.2% MoM, beneath forecasts for a 0.3% increase. In the 12 months to February, sales plunged from 2.7% to -1.1%, showcasing the ongoing economic slowdown.Citi Mexico's expectations survey shows that economists expect Banxico to cut its rate by 50 basis points at the May meeting. For the full year, they project the main reference rate to end near 7.75%.Regarding the USD/MXN exchange rate, private analysts see the exotic pair finishing at 20.93, up from 20.90. Inflation in 2025 is projected to finish at 3.78%, with core figures at 3.80%, mostly aligned with the previous poll.Mexico’s economy is expected to grow 0.2% in 2025, below the 0.3% projected in the prior survey.Mexico’s Mid-month inflation in April is expected to rise from 3.67% to 3.79% YoY and core figures to increase from 3.56% to 3.77% YoY.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso remains bearish as USD/MXN stays below 200-day SMASince dropping below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 19.91, the USD/MXN has become bearishly biased, though it has recovered some ground after hitting a year-to-date (YTD) low of 19.46.Buyers must reclaim the 200-day SMA followed by the 20.00 figure for a bullish resumption. A breach of the latter will expose the confluence of the April 14 high and the 50-day SMA near 20.25-20.29 before testing the 100-day SMA at 20.33.Conversely, sellers could test 19.50 followed by the current YTD low before the 19.00 mark. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The Greenback extended their recovery on the back of auspicious headlines around the US-China trade crisis and mitigating fears around potential threats to the Fed’s independence by President Trump.

The Greenback extended their recovery on the back of auspicious headlines around the US-China trade crisis and mitigating fears around potential threats to the Fed’s independence by President Trump.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 24: The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced further and retargeted the psychological 100.00 barrier, up for the second straight day. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due, seconded by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Durable Goods Orders, and Existing Home Sales. EUR/USD came under extra selling pressure, challenging the 1.1300 key support, or multi-day troughs. Germany’s IFO Business Climate will be only released on the domestic calendar. GBP/USD broke below the 1.3300 support to reach new four-day lows amid the persistent advance in the Greenback. Next on tap across the Channel will be the CBI Business Optimism Index, seconded by Industrial Trend Orders. USD/JPY gained extra steam and broke above the 143.00 hurdle, hitting fresh multi-day peaks. The weekly readings of Foreign Bond Investment are expected. Prices of WTI dipped to four-day lows, breaching the $62.00 mark per barrel following the likelihood that the OPEC+ could hike the crude oil output next month. The better tone in the risk-linked assets as well as the higher US Dollar and easing US-China trade concerns all weighed on the yellow metal, dragging Gold prices below the $3,300 mark per troy ounce. Silver prices, in the meantime, rallied to three-week highs around the $33.70 zone per ounce.

Gold prices plunged more than 2.50% on Wednesday as risk appetite improved due to a possible de-escalation of US-China tensions and US President Donald Trump's statement that he doesn’t plan to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.

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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,288 after hitting a daily high of $3,386.The narrative in the financial markets hasn’t changed. Tariffs continued to drive price action, and news that the US might slash duties on China sent US equities higher and Bullion prices tumbling.An article in The Wall Street Journal suggested this, though US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent poured cold water on traders’ mood. He said Trump has not offered to lower tariffs on Chinese products unilaterally, hinting that China must do its part.On Tuesday, Trump said he had no intention of firing Powell and added, “The press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in his idea to lower interest rates.”Amid these comments, Bullion edged lower as the Greenback recovered some ground. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the American currency value against a basket of six others, is up 0.09% at 99.72.Regarding the chances of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates at the upcoming meeting, traders see a 94% chance of keeping them unchanged, according to Prime Market Terminal. Nevertheless, traders expect the Fed funds rate to end at 3.45%, equal to 92 basis points of easing (bps).Source: Primer Market TerminalDaily digest market movers: Gold price tanks below $3,300 on risk-on sentimentThe US 10-year Treasury yield gains two basis points to 4.371%.US real yields are edging up 1.5 bps to 2.099%, as shown by the yields on US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.Data-wise, S&P Global revealed that the US Manufacturing PMI in April improved from 50.2 to 50.7, contrary to other readings that dipped. The S&P Global Services PMI for the same period dipped from 54.4 to 51.4, below forecasts of 52.8.The US economic docket for the week includes Fed speakers, Durable Goods Orders, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price remains bullish despite retreatingGold remains upward biased despite the ongoing pullback driving the yellow metal below $3,300 a troy ounce. Although it seems that sellers are in charge, they need to drag XAU/USD below the April 3 peak of $3,167, so they could test the next key support level, being the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,032.Conversely, if buyers reclaim $3,300, the next key resistance would be $3,450, followed by the $3,400 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) failed to hold onto its early strength during Wednesday’s session and now drifts near the 99.50 region, reflecting continued uncertainty around US trade policy and softening business momentum.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar Index trades near 99.50 on Wednesday after erasing earlier gains from Asian hours.Mixed PMI data and lack of clarity from Trump’s tariff stance keep USD under pressure.MACD prints a sell signal with resistance seen near 99.95 and 100.10; support rests at 98.94.The US Dollar Index (DXY) failed to hold onto its early strength during Wednesday’s session and now drifts near the 99.50 region, reflecting continued uncertainty around US trade policy and softening business momentum. The Greenback's intraday pop toward 100.00 during Asian trading faded quickly after comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and renewed scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s policy stance.In economic data, the flash S&P Global Composite PMI for April fell to 51.2 from 53.5, suggesting slower overall business activity. While the Manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.7, the Services PMI slipped to 51.4 from 54.4 — highlighting waning demand in the services sector. S&P Global’s Chris Williamson noted that growth momentum is clearly weakening, while inflationary pressure remains, posing a challenge to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balancing act.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar drifts lower after PMI data and tariff noiseBessent reiterated that tariff negotiations are not imminent and will occur below the Trump-Xi level, adding to uncertainty.Despite a modest improvement in factory output, service sector weakness dragged the Composite PMI lower to 51.2.Analysts at Standard Chartered warned that tariff revenue would fall well short of funding proposed tax cuts, potentially adding pressure to US interest rates.President Trump’s mixed messages about tariffs — initially striking a conciliatory tone before reverting to ambiguity — have confused traders and investors alike.Wall Street’s S&P 500 gave up gains following Bessent’s remarks, while the USD trimmed losses with DXY stabilizing around 99.50.Speaking on Wednesday, Bessent clarified that President Trump has not offered to unilaterally cut tariffs on Chinese imports.He did, however, suggest that neither side views current tariff levels as viable long-term, hinting at a potential mutual reduction. Meanwhile, Trump stated he’d be “nice” to China if talks resume, offering lower tariffs as incentive. But the absence of a clear time frame for negotiations has left markets on edge.
Technical analysis: DXY still capped below key averages
From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index (DXY) maintains a bearish structure while trading near 99.56, registering a marginal daily loss of 0.08%. Price action remains confined between 98.86 and 99.67, reflecting market indecision ahead of upcoming macro data.Momentum indicators are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints at 34.79, while the Awesome Oscillator at −3.45 is neutral. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in selling territory, reinforcing the near-term downside bias. The Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14) at 38.59 offers no strong directional cue.Trend-following indicators continue to pressure the USD. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 100.10 and Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 99.95 now act as immediate resistance. Further barriers stand at 100.10 and 101.26. On the downside, key support is located at 98.94. A break below this floor could pave the way for a deeper slide toward the mid-97.00 range.While oversold signals hint at a potential technical bounce, persistent political and fiscal concerns may limit the DXY’s ability to mount a sustained recovery.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions, most of which focuses on the economy’s general overview, inflation, and employment.

Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions, most of which focuses on the economy’s general overview, inflation, and employment.Beige Book: Economic activity is largely unchanged; wage growth slows, and inflation pressures persist amid tariff-driven cost increasesThe Fed’s April Beige Book revealed little change in economic activity, and worries about tariffs worsened the outlook in several regions. Consumer spending remains mixed, while the labor market has shown signs of cooling after stalling or edging lower in many Fed districts.Wage growth decelerated in some areas, despite improved labor availability. Regarding inflation, input costs rose due to tariffs, with firms passing on costs of facing margin squeezes.The Beige Book added that businesses are preparing for more uncertainty, primarily due to tariffs impacts and weaker services demand.

At an International Monetary Fund (IMF) event, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said that the central bank must take the risk to economic growth from global trade disruption very seriously.

At an International Monetary Fund (IMF) event, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said that the central bank must take the risk to economic growth from global trade disruption very seriously.Key QuotesFragmenting the world economy will be bad for growth. 
The UK is an open economy so US relation with rest of the world matters. 
We do have to take very seriously the risk to growth. 
China has had sustained weak household domestic demand, not sustainable forever. 
Bretton Woods system is best one we have but it has challenges.

United States 5-Year Note Auction fell from previous 4.1% to 3.995%

The USD/CAD pair trades modestly higher around 1.3800 during Tuesday’s North American session, bouncing within a tight range after testing six-month lows earlier in the week.

USD/CAD holds steady near 1.3800 after hitting a six-month low.Trump’s softened stance on Powell and China brings brief USD relief.Technical outlook remains bearish despite modest intraday gains.The USD/CAD pair trades modestly higher around 1.3800 during Tuesday’s North American session, bouncing within a tight range after testing six-month lows earlier in the week. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is largely unchanged on the session as traders digest recent developments including fresh PMI data and cautious optimism around easing trade tensions.President Trump’s remarks late Tuesday sparked a brief USD recovery after he ruled out firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and signaled a potential reduction in tariffs on China. While the comments helped lift the US Dollar in early Asian trade, the bounce faded as markets reassessed lingering risks to Fed credibility and US-China relations. Meanwhile, a preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI reading showed a slowdown in US business activity, with the index falling to 51.2 from 53.5 in March. The Services PMI fell sharply to 51.4, while manufacturing output edged up to 50.7.On the Canadian side, the CAD remains stable, supported by firm equity markets and hopes that tariff volatility may subside. However, traders await Friday’s Canadian Retail Sales report for further direction.USD/CAD Technical Analysis
Technically, USD/CAD maintains a bearish structure despite today’s mild uptick. The pair trades within a daily range of 1.3798 to 1.3861. Momentum (10) at −0.02398 shows a buy bias, but the MACD still prints a sell signal, and the Bull Bear Power indicator remains neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 33.94, hovering near oversold territory. Moving averages reinforce the downtrend: the 20-day SMA (1.4060), 100-day SMA (1.4274), and 200-day SMA (1.4008) all point lower, with added pressure from the 10-day EMA (1.3903) and 10-day SMA (1.3872). Resistance stands at 1.3872, 1.3903, and 1.4008, while immediate support is seen at 1.3813.Unless fundamental momentum shifts decisively in favor of the USD, USD/CAD is likely to remain capped below 1.3900 with a bias toward retesting the 1.3745–1.3780 support zone.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied over 490 points or close to 1.30% on Wednesday amid traders' relief on a possible de-escalation of the US-China trade war and US President Donald Trump's comment that he doesn’t plan to remove Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.

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At the time of writing, the DJIA remains above 39,800 after hitting a daily low of 39,544.De-escalation hopes in US-China trade war spark tech rally; Apple and Nvidia lead gains, Gold tumbles despite falling yieldsOn Tuesday, Trump said that tariffs on China would be less than 145% but threatened that “it’ll come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.” A story in The Wall Street Journal that Washington is considering reducing tariffs on China to ease tensions between the latter and the US improved traders' risk appetite.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added, “No unilateral offer from Trump to cut China tariffs,” adding that the trade war needs to be de-escalated for discussions to proceed.Shares of US companies exposed to China jumped, led by Apple (APPL) and Nvidia (NVDA), by 3% and 5% respectively. Meanwhile, market sentiment trumped Gold’s rally so far, with the yellow metal diving over 2.75% down at $3,286 even though US Treasury yields are also falling, with the 10-year T-note coupon down three basis points to 4.364%.Dow Jones price forecastThe DJIA's downtrend is intact, though. After hitting a daily high of 40,336, the index seems poised to close the ‘gap up’ sponsored by Trump's comments on Tuesday. This means the Dow could fall and challenge the April 22 high, which turned support at 39,271, before trying to rally toward the 40,000 mark, which was briefly tested before Bessent's remarks.Conversely, bears need to drag the index below 39,000 for a bearish continuation, which would open the door for lower prices. The next support would be 38,500, followed by 38,000, ahead of testing the year-to-date (YTD) low of 36,614, which was hit on April 7. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

The EURGBP pair eased slightly on Wednesday, slipping toward the lower end of its recent consolidation range after the European session. The pair was last seen hovering near the 0.8600 area, reflecting a mild pullback within a still-bullish technical setup.

EUR/GBP trades near the 0.8600 zone, easing slightly after the European session.Despite today's dip, the broader structure remains bullish with supportive moving averages.Support is seen at 0.8550 and 0.8526, while resistance lies at 0.8564 and 0.8591.The EURGBP pair eased slightly on Wednesday, slipping toward the lower end of its recent consolidation range after the European session. The pair was last seen hovering near the 0.8600 area, reflecting a mild pullback within a still-bullish technical setup.Momentum indicators are offering mixed cues. The Relative Strength Index stands around 55, indicating a neutral tone, while the MACD is currently printing a sell signal. The Ultimate Oscillator and Average Directional Index also remain in neutral territory, suggesting a lack of clear short-term directional conviction.Despite this, the broader bias remains constructive. The 20-day simple moving average at 0.8516, along with the 100-day at 0.8372 and 200-day at 0.8387, all point upward. These longer-term signals are reinforced by bullish inputs from the 30-day exponential moving average at 0.8493 and the 30-day SMA at 0.8470.Key support levels are located at 0.8550, 0.8527, and 0.8526. On the upside, immediate resistance is found at 0.8564, with additional barriers at 0.8569 and 0.8591. For now, the pair remains range-bound but retains a bullish tilt as long as it holds above the 0.8500 handle.
EUR/GBP Daily chart

On Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent crossed the wires to discuss the ‘trade war’ between China and his country. He commented that Trump has not offered to unilaterally lower tariffs on China.

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The EURUSD pair eased lower on Wednesday, retreating slightly toward the 1.1400 zone after a recent bullish streak.

EUR/USD trades near the 1.1400 zone after slipping modestly post-European session.Despite today’s pullback, technicals remain constructive with MACD signaling a buy.Support comes in at 1.1322, 1.1184, and 1.1153, while resistance awaits at 1.1363 and 1.1454.The EURUSD pair eased lower on Wednesday, retreating slightly toward the 1.1400 zone after a recent bullish streak. While the pair dipped by around half a percent during the session, it remains confined within a healthy daily range between 1.1307 and 1.1440, showing signs of consolidation rather than reversal.Momentum indicators offer a mixed view. The Relative Strength Index is holding in neutral territory near 64, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD, however, continues to flash a buy signal, underpinning the broader bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, the Williams Percent Range and Bull Bear Power both show neutral readings, reinforcing the short-term indecision.On the downside, support is located at 1.1322, followed by deeper levels at 1.1184 and 1.1153. Resistance lies overhead at 1.1363 and extends to 1.1454. While today's minor pullback could signal cooling momentum, the underlying bullish bias remains intact as long as the pair holds above key short-term averages.
EUR/USD Daily chart

The Pound Sterling depreciated against the Greenback on Wednesday yet slightly recovered after diving to four-day lows of 1.3230. Traders seemed relieved that US President Donald Trump, although angry with Fed Chair Powell, is not looking to sack him.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/USD pressured by upbeat US PMIs and growing confidence in the Greenback amid trade de-escalation signals.Trump eases market jitters by confirming no intention to fire Powell, lifting risk appetite and USD.Sterling holds above key support at 1.3250; a break below could open the door to test 1.3152 (50-day SMA).The Pound Sterling depreciated against the Greenback on Wednesday yet slightly recovered after diving to four-day lows of 1.3230. Traders seemed relieved that US President Donald Trump, although angry with Fed Chair Powell, is not looking to sack him. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades were at 1.3289, down 0.28%.GBP/USD dips to 4-day low before trimming losses after Trump signals Fed Chair Powell stays and China tariff cuts loomInvestors sentiment improved after the North American trading session ended and Trump said that the is not looking to fire Powell. This boosted global equities and drove the US Dollar higher.The GBP/USD bounced recently on news that the White House is considering slashing tariffs on China to de-escalate the trade war, according to the Wall Street Journal. Although traders cheered this move, the pair remains pressured by renewed confidence in the American currency.On the data front, US Flash PMIs revealed by S&P showed that manufacturing activity in April was improving, contrary to services, which continued to slow down. The Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.2 to 50.7, exceeding estimates of 49.1, while the Services PMI dipped from 54.4 to 51.4.Across the pond, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April contracted for six straight months. It was 44, as expected, down from 44.9 in the prior month. The services index deteriorated from March’s seven-month high of 52.5 to 48.9, missing forecasts of 51.3.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookAmid this backdrop, the GBP/USD uptrend remains after dipping below 1.3300. However, sellers seem to have gathered momentum as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) aims towards a neutral level. Still they must achieve a daily close below 1.3250 so they can test the next key support at 1.3152 the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).On the other hand, if GBP/USD climbs past 1.3300, buyers could target the year-to-date (YTD) peak of 1.3423 hit on April 22. British Pound PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.24% 0.02% 0.36% 0.06% -0.51% -1.03% 1.01% EUR -0.24% -0.36% 0.05% -0.21% -0.92% -1.30% 0.75% GBP -0.02% 0.36% 0.61% 0.16% -0.57% -0.93% 1.12% JPY -0.36% -0.05% -0.61% -0.29% -0.96% -1.23% 0.69% CAD -0.06% 0.21% -0.16% 0.29% -0.68% -1.09% 0.97% AUD 0.51% 0.92% 0.57% 0.96% 0.68% -0.35% 1.67% NZD 1.03% 1.30% 0.93% 1.23% 1.09% 0.35% 2.10% CHF -1.01% -0.75% -1.12% -0.69% -0.97% -1.67% -2.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Tariff revenue won't compensate for the fiscal costs of TCJA extensions. Added tariff revenues will be below 1% of GDP – most likely 0.5-0.9% of GDP. Unfunded tax cuts could put further upward pressure on US rates, Standard Chartered's analysts report.

Tariff revenue won't compensate for the fiscal costs of TCJA extensions. Added tariff revenues will be below 1% of GDP – most likely 0.5-0.9% of GDP. Unfunded tax cuts could put further upward pressure on US rates, Standard Chartered's analysts report. Everything everywhere all in the reconciliation bill"The Trump administration argues that higher tariffs will pay for tax cuts. Despite the worse-than-expected tariff announcement on ‘Liberation Day’, the administration’s 90‑day tariff pause and rhetoric since then suggest that the worst-case tariff scenario has already played out and we expect tariff rates to be negotiated down in the coming months." "Assuming tariff negotiations lead to tariff rates of 60% on China, 10% on the rest of the world (ROW), and minimal tariffs on Canada and Mexico, realistic tariff revenues are likely to be under 1% of GDP and possibly well below. We think tariff revenues will fall well short of financing the extension of the current Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an estimated cost of 1.4% of GDP as estimated by the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT).""It is still uncertain whether tariff revenues can be included in the baseline for the reconciliation bill. Normally, only legislated tariffs would be seen as permanent enough to be a ‘pay-for’. Moreover, arguing that the executive orders will raise tariffs permanently may weaken the government’s position if legal challenges arise. But even if these non-permanent tariff revenues are included, the administration will likely need to find savings elsewhere. This is especially the case if the intention is to add tax cuts that go beyond the TCJA. Long-term rates now seem to be reacting more to deficit slippage than in 2017 when the TCJA was passed."

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 0.244M, above expectations (-0.7M) in April 18

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the day as spot continues to consolidate.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the day as spot continues to consolidate. Overnight developments have had no real impact on CAD sentiment but, at the margin, hope (however futile it seems right now) that trade tensions will ease, lower volatility and firmer stocks are moderate positives for the CAD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. The flat trading range remains intact"Developments should at least sustain the CAD-supportive trend in factors driving the CAD that has emerged recently. Out fair value estimate for spot sits at 1.3855 today—about bang in the middle of what we think will be spot’s trading range (1.37/1.40 or so) in the short run." "The flat trading range in place over the past few sessions remains intact and 'bearish' because the broader trend in spot remains lower, supported by a bearish alignment of trend oscillators which suggests limited potential for the USD to strengthen and ongoing pressure on spot to push lower in the days/weeks ahead." "Near-term support/resistance is 1.3780/90 and resistance is 1.3865/75. Major (retracement) support is 1.3745. Resistance is 1.3975/1.40025."

The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens and enters Wednesday’s American session with a modest decline, trading in tandem with the Euro (EUR), around the Trump trade/Fed headlines, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens and enters Wednesday’s American session with a modest decline, trading in tandem with the Euro (EUR), around the Trump trade/Fed headlines, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. UK PMIs generally weaker"The UK’s PMI releases were generally less constructive, with significantly weaker (though as expected, at 44) Manufacturing PMI and disappointing sub-50 Services PMI. BoE Gov. Bailey will speak in Washington at 1:15pm and his comments will be closely scrutinized to see if they follow recent MPC comments about the disinflationary impact of US tariffs." "We look for near-term consolidation around 1.33 and note the fact that GBPUSD’s most recent highs were not confirmed by the RSI, offering negative divergence in momentum. We look to near-term support between 1.3220 and 1.3250 and resistance between 1.3400 and 1.3420."

United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.724M, above forecasts (0.68M) in March

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades firmly around $33.00 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal strengthens as fears of an intense trade war between the United States (US) and China have diminished after President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of a deal with Beijing.

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  Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.4, below expectations (52.8) in April

United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.7, above forecasts (49.4) in April

United States S&P Global Composite PMI declined to 51.2 in April from previous 53.5

Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the White House was considering slashing tariffs on Chinese goods to de-escalate the trade conflict, per Reuters.

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Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft, down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft, down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. JPY may consolidate further "JPY is soft, down 0.2% vs. the USD and underperforming most of the G10 currencies along with its haven peer CHF within the broader context of mild risk appetite." "The violent two-way price action observed over the past 24 hours hints at the potential for near-term consolidation as markets assess shifting risks around sentiment given headlines related to Trump, trade, and the Fed."

The Euro (EUR) is soft and entering Wednesday’s NA session with a modest decline against the US Dollar (USD), having recovered from a short-lived bout of early Asian session weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Euro (EUR) is soft and entering Wednesday’s NA session with a modest decline against the US Dollar (USD), having recovered from a short-lived bout of early Asian session weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. PMIs mixed w/better mfg and softer services"The release of preliminary PMI’s has been mixed, with a better than expected (though still sub-50) Manufacturing print and a disappointing and unexpectedly contractionary (sub-50) Services print for both the eurozone aggregate and German releases." "These releases were the highlights of the week, leaving markets to focus on central bank headlines out of the IMF meetings in Washington. Tuesday’s comments from President Lagarde focused on downside risks to growth but offered little clarity in terms of her thinking on trade tensions and their impact on inflation." "The broader trend is still bullish however we can’t help but notice EURUSD’s inability to break from the 1.14 congestion level over the past 8 sessions. We look to near-term support in the mid/ upper-1.12s and note recent resistance above 1.15/1.1550. The RSI’s slow drift lower hints at a loss of momentum and follows the negative divergence that failed to confirm Monday’s highs in spot. Look to near-term consolidation."

Markets are trading with a sense of relief this morning. Late yesterday, President Trump said he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell and remarked that the 145% tariffs on China could be reduced substantially following a trade deal.

Markets are trading with a sense of relief this morning. Late yesterday, President Trump said he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell and remarked that the 145% tariffs on China could be reduced substantially following a trade deal. The US Dollar (USD) jumped on the headlines, opening firmly in Asian trade, but gains did not stick and the index is trading net lower on the day now, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD edges back after early Asian gains"The Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF) are underperforming, however, and stocks and bonds are firmer. Backing off the president’s criticism of the Fed is a positive (but there is a history of animus going back to 2018 which suggests tensions with the Fed chair may remain close to the surface). The positive spin on trade reflects the reality that, at this point, the US may need an off-ramp more than China does. The Chinese leadership has not picked up the phone for the White House by some accounts and talks with China on trade have not been held even at low diplomatic levels." "It seems that there is little appetite in China to make concessions and any agreement is a long way off. Relief for the USD may be temporary as trade uncertainty will continue to shade US economic prospects. Indeed, US April PMI data are released at 9.45ET and are expected to reflect tariff headwinds. The Manufacturing index is forecast to slip back under 50 while services and the composite readings are forecast to ease a little from March but remain in expansion territory. Note that US economic surprises are tracking weaker (i.e. data coming in below expectations) after improving through much of March and early April." "There are a number of Fed speakers on tap today, including Governor Waller who has sounded a little more dovish in recent comments (tariff inflation 'temporary'). There’s a USD70bn auction of 5Y bonds at 13ET (yesterday’s 2Y sale was a bit soft and 'indirect' bids plunged) and the Fed’s Beige Book is released at 14ET. Later Japan releases weekly capital flow data. The focus here will be on whether the data reflects selling of foreign (US) bonds. Technical patterns suggest some relief for the DXY following the rebound overnight, but the index has not sustained initial gains and price action retains a consolidative look. Support is 98.85. Resistance is 99.75."

Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 0.1% in March

Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0%) in March

Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) down to 0.2% in February from previous 0.6%

Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) down to -1.1% in February from previous 2.7%

In an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel noted that the world economy is in a very delicate situation and said that they need to have a better understanding of how to find compromises on tariffs.

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ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

The Copper price can make up further ground after the Easter break.

The Copper price can make up further ground after the Easter break. Recent statements from the ranks of the US government regarding a possible de-escalation of the tariff dispute with China should ensure that the recovery can possibly continue for a while longer, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Copper rebounds on trade hopes"This is because hopes are likely to grow that the currently high tariffs between the two economic powers will soon be lowered again, which would minimize the damage to both economies. However, in view of the fundamental situation, we remain cautious about the further upward potential of the Copper price." "According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global Copper market was recently still adequately supplied. The supply surplus totalled 150 thousand tons in January and February, with a small deficit of 49 thousand tons on a seasonally adjusted basis. Compared to the same period last year, the supply situation has hardly changed." "This is surprising given the fears of a shortage of Copper ore, which could lead to a reduction in metal processing. However, both metal processing and demand remained relatively stable compared to the previous year. This could still change. This is because the US tariff dispute could affect metal processing in China, the dominant producer country, as well as reduce global demand."

AUD/USD gains sharply to near 0.6420 as the US Dollar gives up intraday gains.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD gains sharply to near 0.6420 as the US Dollar gives up intraday gains.US President Trump sees a de-escalation in the trade war with Beijing.Investors await the preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for April.The AUD/USD pair recovers strongly to near 0.6420 on Wednesday’s European session. The Aussie pair bounces back after a sharp correction to near 0.6350 earlier in the day from an over four-month high of 0.6440 posted on Tuesday.The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens as Washington has expressed confidence in de-escalation in a trade war with China. The AUD is a proxy play of the Chinese economy, given the significant reliance of the Australian economy on its exports to China. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.24% 0.22% 0.28% 0.14% -0.68% -0.29% 0.57% EUR -0.24% -0.03% 0.05% -0.11% -0.86% -0.55% 0.31% GBP -0.22% 0.03% 0.08% -0.08% -0.84% -0.51% 0.37% JPY -0.28% -0.05% -0.08% -0.14% -0.85% -0.60% 0.31% CAD -0.14% 0.11% 0.08% 0.14% -0.72% -0.41% 0.44% AUD 0.68% 0.86% 0.84% 0.85% 0.72% 0.33% 1.18% NZD 0.29% 0.55% 0.51% 0.60% 0.41% -0.33% 0.88% CHF -0.57% -0.31% -0.37% -0.31% -0.44% -1.18% -0.88% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). On Tuesday, United States (US) President Donald Trump signaled that discussions with China are going well, adding that he thinks they will reach a deal. Trump said that tariffs on Beijing “would not be as high as 145%, but they wouldn’t be zero”. Market participants took Trump’s comments as a meaningful step towards closing a deal with China. Such a scenario will be a win-win for both the largest powerhouses of the world.Meanwhile, China is open to negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with respect and mutual trust. Beijing has urged the US to stop making threats if it wants a deal. “This is not the right way to deal with China, and it is not feasible,” Chinese ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said and added, “The US should conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality and mutual benefit.”On the US Dollar (USD) front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has surrendered its initial gains and falls back to near 99.00 even though fears of an intense trade war between the US and China have eased and Trump has backed away market expectations that he can sack Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April, which will be published at 13:45 GMT.  US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
 

The data on Gold exports in March published by the Swiss customs authority last Thursday showed a split picture, as in the two previous months, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The data on Gold exports in March published by the Swiss customs authority last Thursday showed a split picture, as in the two previous months, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. US absorbs bulk of Swiss Gold exports"Gold deliveries to Asia were again weak. In contrast, large quantities of Gold were once again shipped to the US. In the first quarter, Gold exports to China and Hong Kong totalled 13.4 tons, a 95% drop compared to the previous year. India received 7.4 tons, 87% less than in the previous year. The sharp price rise in the first quarter visibly took its toll." "Gold shipments to the US, on the other hand, rose to almost 450 tons, meaning that 77% of total Swiss Gold exports in the first quarter went to the US. This is mainly due to the sharp rise in Gold stocks on the Comex. In addition, the US-listed Gold ETFs recorded strong inflows." "In view of the continued rise in Gold prices, demand for Gold in Asia is likely to remain weak in April. As Gold stocks on the Comex have not risen any further since the beginning of the month, Gold shipments to the US are also likely to be significantly lower this month."

The fact that Silver cannot keep pace with gold is explained by the importance of industrial demand, which is developing less dynamically than previously expected, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The fact that Silver cannot keep pace with gold is explained by the importance of industrial demand, which is developing less dynamically than previously expected, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Silver demand to dip despite coin and bar interest"The Silver Institute expects a slight decline to 677 million ounces this year. In addition, demand for industrial applications last year was revised downwards by 20 million to 680 million ounces compared to the forecast in November 2024. Nevertheless, this would still be a record level." "The stagnation in industrial demand and a decline in demand for jewellery and silverware are expected to cause total Silver demand to fall by 1.4% to 1.15 billion ounces. Slightly higher demand for bars and coins cannot prevent the decline in demand. In the previous year, however, demand for Silver fell twice as much due to the sharp drop in demand for bars and coins." "With Silver supply increasing slightly at the same time, the supply deficit is expected to narrow to 118 million ounces this year. This would be the fifth consecutive year with a supply deficit, but also the smallest in four years."

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades broadly flat near 99.20 at the time of writing on Wednesday after an earlier attempt to test the 100.00 big figure in early Asian trading.

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The pop in the DXY came on the back of comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump late Tuesday, saying that he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, despite being frustrated with the high interest rates. The President also said he would be ‘nice’ to China if they come to the negotiating table, offering an olive branch by promising tariffs on China would be much lower than they are now, Bloomberg reports. On the economic calendar front, all eyes are on the S&P Global preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers for April. Traders already got a flavor with the European PMI data compiled by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) released earlier in the day. The mean theme in European core countries is that Services in Germany, France and the Eurozone as a whole fell into contraction and missed expectations across the board. Daily digest market movers: PMI leading dataAt 13:45 GMT, the S&P Global PMI preliminary data for April is due:Services PMI is expected to decline to 52.8, from the previous 54.4.Manufacturing PMI is expected to contract to 49.4, coming from 50.2.Three Fed speakers are lined up for this Wednesday:At 13:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austan Goolsbee delivers opening remarks in a virtual presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit.Near 13:30 GMT, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem delivers remarks at the Fed Listens Event along with Fed Governor Christopher Waller.Equities are rallying across the board on the back of the softening stance from US President Trump on China and the Fed. US futures pre-market are up over 2%. The German Dax is outperforming by 3%.The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May’s meeting stands at 4.8% against no changes at 95.2%. The June meeting still has around a 65.4% chance of a rate cut. The US 10-year yields trade around 4.34% as US bonds are bid together with equities, which means yields are softening. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Firm rejection in Asian tradingThe US Dollar Index (DXY) attempted to regain control at the 100.00 level, though it failed. The whole DXY gains during Asian hours this Wednesday have already been pared back. Although President Trump might have opened the door for negotiations, extended an olive branch to China, markets are clearly seeing it as a sign of weakness from the Trump administration, as they lost control over the stock market with the rout on Monday, having forced the President’s hand to ease off on his harsh stances. On the upside, the first resistance comes in at 99.58,  which has triggered a firm rejection and remains the first level to look at. Should US Dollar bulls resurface, look for 100.22 with a break back above the 100.00 round level as a bullish signal of their return. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90.On the other hand, the 97.73 support is very close and could snap at any moment. Further below, a rather thin technical support comes in at 96.94, before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -12.7% (April 18) vs previous -8.5%

While the Gold price is rushing from record to record and the rise recently even gained momentum, the Silver price has not even fully made up for the price drop at the beginning of April, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

While the Gold price is rushing from record to record and the rise recently even gained momentum, the Silver price has not even fully made up for the price drop at the beginning of April, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Silver lags behind soaring Gold rally"At just under $33 per troy ounce, Silver is still a good 4% below its 5-month high from the end of March. Compared to Gold's gain of more than 30% since the beginning of the year, Silver's rise of 13% is also modest. The significantly weaker price performance of Silver compared to Gold is also reflected in the sharp rise in the Gold/Silver ratio." "This rose to above 100 for the first time in almost five years at the beginning of April and reached a peak of 107 yesterday, which was last seen during the coronavirus pandemic in May 2020. Silver is therefore extremely cheap compared to Gold. We attribute this to the sharp price increase in Gold, which is currently outperforming all other commodities and asset classes." "If you compare the price performance of Silver with that of crude oil, copper, US equities or US bonds, Silver performs better. Therefore, silver's performance is not that bad after all."

Last week, OPEC published a new compensation plan to offset the previous overproduction, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Last week, OPEC published a new compensation plan to offset the previous overproduction, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. OPEC announces new compensation cuts through 2026"According to the plan, production cuts totalling 4.57 million barrels per day are planned for the eight affected countries until mid-2026. Iraq accounts for 1.93 million barrels per day and Kazakhstan for 1.3 million barrels per day. Other notable contributions come from Russia (691 thousand barrels per day) and the United Arab Emirates (386 thousand barrels per day)." "Even though the aforementioned cuts will not apply over the entire period, but will add up, the increase in supply from May is likely to be less than the announced 411 thousand barrels per day. Compensatory cuts totalling 378 thousand barrels per day will apply from May." "If these were implemented in full, OPEC+ production would therefore only increase by a good 30 thousand barrels per day. In June, OPEC+ production would even fall slightly if there is no further increase in the agreed production volume."

The Brent oil price rose significantly yesterday and regained last Thursday's interim high of just over $68 per barrel in the morning, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The Brent oil price rose significantly yesterday and regained last Thursday's interim high of just over $68 per barrel in the morning, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Brent crude surges on sanctions and inventory drop"The price increase was triggered by signs of easing in the tariff conflict and further US sanctions against Iran. After customers in China (see Commodities Update from 17 April), a shipping network from Iran, which is held responsible for transporting Iranian oil, was also placed on the US sanctions list yesterday." "An unexpectedly sharp fall in US crude oil inventories reported by the API in the evening also drove up prices. We no longer see any significant upward potential for oil prices due to the looming oversupply."

Following the US President's verbal attack on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the price of Gold reached a new record high of $3,500 per troy ounce. In euro terms, the precious metal has now also broken through the 3,000 mark, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Following the US President's verbal attack on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the price of Gold reached a new record high of $3,500 per troy ounce. In euro terms, the precious metal has now also broken through the 3,000 mark, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Gold hits record high on Fed uncertainty"It is less surprising that Trump called on the Fed Chair to lower interest rates — he has done so often enough in the past. What is more surprising is the rapidly increasing intensity of the attacks, as well as the virtual threat to remove Powell from office (according to the National Economic Council Director this was being studied). It is obvious why Gold can benefit from this." "If the US government succeeds in making the US Federal Reserve compliant, an excessively loose monetary policy and a significant rise in US inflation could be expected — both of which would make Gold more attractive as an investment. Just how far-reaching an attack on the independence of the central bank can be in extreme cases can be seen in the example of Turkey, where the inflation rate has been in double figures for more than five years, most recently reaching almost 40%, and the currency has subsequently lost massive amounts of value.""The price of Gold fell again in the course of yesterday's trading and is down to $3,300 today, as Trump has since backtracked somewhat. What happens now? That depends, on the one hand, on whether Trump sticks to his verbal attacks or whether an early dismissal of Powell actually becomes more likely and, on the other, on how the Fed reacts to his comments at its next meeting on 7 May."

Shiba Inu (SHIB) price climbs and trades at $0.00001366 at the time of writing on Wednesday, up from $0.00001249 and observing a 9.31% increase in the last 24 hours. The daily trade volume increased by 111.05%, as nearly $314,274,066.13 in Shiba Inu was traded.

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Shiba Inu gained 17.44% in the last 7 days, and the total market capitalization currently hits $8,047,639,049.17.

In the last 24 hours, DeepBook Protocol, Immutable and Sui emerge as top gainers, while Tether Gold, PAX Gold and TRON are the top losers. Cryptocurrency prices FAQs How do new token launches or listings affect cryptocurrency prices? Token launches influence demand and adoption among market participants. Listings on crypto exchanges deepen the liquidity for an asset and add new participants to an asset’s network. This is typically bullish for a digital asset. How do hacks affect cryptocurrency prices? A hack is an event in which an attacker captures a large volume of the asset from a DeFi bridge or hot wallet of an exchange or any other crypto platform via exploits, bugs or other methods. The exploiter then transfers these tokens out of the exchange platforms to ultimately sell or swap the assets for other cryptocurrencies or stablecoins. Such events often involve an en masse panic triggering a sell-off in the affected assets. How do macroeconomic releases and events affect cryptocurrency prices? Macroeconomic events like the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates influence crypto assets mainly through the direct impact they have on the US Dollar. An increase in interest rate typically negatively influences Bitcoin and altcoin prices, and vice versa. If the US Dollar index declines, risk assets and associated leverage for trading gets cheaper, in turn driving crypto prices higher. How do major crypto upgrades like halvings, hard forks affect cryptocurrency prices? Halvings are typically considered bullish events as they slash the block reward in half for miners, constricting the supply of the asset. At consistent demand if the supply reduces, the asset’s price climbs.

The USD/CAD pair retreats from the high of 1.3860 posted earlier in the day to near 1.3800 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

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The Loonie pair falls back as the US Dollar (USD) gives up initial gains despite United States (US) President Donald Trump expressing confidence on de-escalation in a trade war with China.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, flattens to near 99.00 from the intraday high of 98.86.US President Trump signaled on Tuesday that Washington can close a deal with China, however, he didn’t provide details of how much tariffs will be charged. However, Beijing has stated that Washington should stop making threats and conduct negotiations fairly and with mutual respect.Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) performs strongly against its major peers, except antipodeans, on Wednesday as President Trump has signaled that he will soon unveil bilateral deals with his trading partners. Such a scenario will ease the global economic uncertainty, which has been escalated in the face of worse-than-expected tariffs announced by Trump on April 2. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.19% 0.25% 0.23% 0.05% -0.66% -0.31% 0.54% EUR -0.19% 0.04% 0.02% -0.16% -0.81% -0.51% 0.33% GBP -0.25% -0.04% -0.02% -0.21% -0.86% -0.56% 0.32% JPY -0.23% -0.02% 0.02% -0.20% -0.78% -0.57% 0.33% CAD -0.05% 0.16% 0.21% 0.20% -0.59% -0.34% 0.53% AUD 0.66% 0.81% 0.86% 0.78% 0.59% 0.31% 1.19% NZD 0.31% 0.51% 0.56% 0.57% 0.34% -0.31% 0.88% CHF -0.54% -0.33% -0.32% -0.33% -0.53% -1.19% -0.88% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote). USD/CAD trades at a make-or-break level near the upward-sloping trendline around 1.3800, which is plotted from the May 2021 low of 1.2031 on a weekly timeframe.The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has started declining near 1.4140, suggesting that the trend has become bearish.The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 40.00 for the first time in almost four years. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if it stays below the 40.00 level.More downside towards the psychological support of 1.3500 and the September 24 low of 1.3430 looks likely if the pair breaks below the round-level figure of 1.3600.In an alternate scenario, a recovery move by the pair above the psychological level of 1.4000 will support to move further to near the April 9 low of 1.4075, followed by the April 8 low of 1.4272.USD/CAD weekly chart 
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Germany 10-y Bond Auction down to 2.47% from previous 2.68%

EUR/USD trades broadly stable on Wednesday after dipping well below 1.1400 earlier in the European trading hours. The major currency pair is off from its over three-year high of 1.1575 as the US Dollar (USD) bounces back.

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The major currency pair is off from its over three-year high of 1.1575 as the US Dollar (USD) bounces back. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, has rebounded to near 99.30 from its three-year low of 98.00. The USD attracts bids after United States (US) President Donald Trump expressed confidence in closing a trade deal with China and backed away fears of sacking Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Still, he said, he remained frustrated over the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates on hold for an uncertain period of time.  Financial market participants are seeing this event as an attempt to regain the “safe-haven” status of the US Dollar. Investors had been doubting the credibility of the US Dollar and US assets due to back-and-forth announcements on tariff policies by Donald Trump and his attacks on the autonomous status of the Fed.  On Tuesday, US President Trump stated that discussions with China are going well, adding that he thinks they will reach a deal. Trump didn’t provide clarity over how much he will reduce import duty on China, but clarified that the tariff on Beijing “would not be as high as 145%, but they wouldn’t be zero”. President Trump pushed back against market expectations that he is aiming to remove Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates. “The press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,” Trump said. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD expected to face pressure from weak Eurozone PMI data The downside move in the EUR/USD pair seen during the early European session is also driven by the Euro’s (EUR) underperformance due to weakness in the domestic business activity. Preliminary Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April has shown that overall business activity has barely managed to stay in the expanding territory.  The Composite PMI has come in lower at 50.1 compared to estimates of 50.3 and the March reading of 50.9. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in private sector activity. A sharp slowdown in the overall PMI data came from an unexpected decline in the service sector activity.  The Service PMI declined to 49.7, while it was expected to grow at a moderate pace to 50.5 from the prior release of 51.0. Meanwhile, activities in the manufacturing sector continued to contract, but at a slower-than-expected pace. The Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7, higher than estimates of 47.5 and the previous release of 48.6. Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at HCOB, has warned that the weak trend in the service sector could continue as the “new business has seen a faster drop”. However, de la Rubia remained confident that “higher fiscal spending on infrastructure in Germany and defence spending across Europe should eventually benefit not just manufacturing but also the service sector, though with a bit of a lag”. Meanwhile, firming expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could cut interest rates again in the June policy meeting are also adding to weakness in the shared currency. Traders have become increasingly confident that the ECB could cut interest rates again in June as officials, including President Christine Lagarde, are confident that inflation will return to the central bank’s 2% target soon. Christine Lagarde expressed confidence in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that the “disinflationary path is clearly on its way”, adding that inflation could be seen around 2.1% by the year-end. Lagarde refrained from guiding the monetary policy path. "Either we cut or pause, but we will be data dependent to the extreme," Lagarde said. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD drops below 1.1400 EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.1400 on Wednesday after facing selling pressure above 1.1500 on Tuesday and recovered afterwards. The major currency pair had shown a strong rally in the last few weeks after a breakout above the September 25 high of 1.1215. Advancing 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0840 suggests a strong upside trend. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs to overbought levels above 70.00, which indicates a strong bullish momentum but also signals increasing chances of a correction. Looking up, the round-level figure of 1.1600 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the July 2023 high of 1.1276 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

AUD/USD has staged a notable recovery this month, breaching key resistance levels and eyeing a test of the 200-day moving average. A sustained break higher could signal a broader bullish trend reversal, with targets at 0.6550 and beyond, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

AUD/USD has staged a notable recovery this month, breaching key resistance levels and eyeing a test of the 200-day moving average. A sustained break higher could signal a broader bullish trend reversal, with targets at 0.6550 and beyond, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Focus shifts to key 200-DMA"AUD/USD has experienced a swift rebound after forming a low near 0.5910 earlier this month. It has crossed the highs of February / March and is gradually heading towards the 200-DMA at 0.6470. If the pair establishes beyond the MA, a larger up move may take shape." "Next objectives could be located at 0.6550, the 61.8% retracement from last year and 0.6640. Last week low of 0.6270 is short-term support."

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.93 on Wednesday, down from 103.99 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

One of the most exciting G10 currencies at the moment is probably the Swiss Franc (CHF).

One of the most exciting G10 currencies at the moment is probably the Swiss Franc (CHF). This should not come as a complete surprise, because even though EUR/CHF has risen by one Rappen in recent days, the Swiss franc remains the clear winner of the last three weeks since 'Liberation Day' - after all, the franc has appreciated by more than 7% against the US dollar this month. Against the G10 average, it is still up close to 4%, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.SNB’s FX intervention dilemma persists"The problem is that, despite its willingness to do so, it hardly intervened at all last year. In total, it bought just around 1 billion CHF in foreign currencies last year, compared with more than 20 billion CHF in foreign currency sales in the last quarter of 2023 alone. The SNB probably wants to avoid inflating its balance sheet too much. Foreign exchange reserves also carry risks, and given the current market volatility, I can understand any SNB trader who does not want to have more bonds on the balance sheet than necessary. Moreover, the SNB would run the risk of attracting too much attention from Donald Trump if it intervened more. Not a very desirable scenario.""It could cut its key rate further. But even here there is a problem: at 0.25%, the SNB has already used most of its ammunition for rate cuts. Of course, it could repeat the negative interest rate experiment (and the market is now pricing in negative rates again), but that is probably not a particularly desirable scenario for the SNB. Especially not if a global recession really does set in and it runs out of room to cut interest rates further. After all, the effective lower bound is likely to be around -0.75%, and other central banks, such as the ECB, are a long way from there. In the event of a global recession, the ECB is likely to cut rates more sharply - and the Swiss franc will appreciate accordingly against the euro.""Given these bad options, the SNB is probably very happy that the franc has not appreciated further. But the fundamental problem remains. We pointed out several times last year that the SNB was in a dilemma. Since then, it has used up most of its ammunition for rate cuts, while Trump has provided another argument against more interventions. This does not necessarily mean that the SNB will not respond with negative rates or more interventions. If the appreciation accelerates, the SNB is likely to react. However, in our view, the risks are clearly pointing to a stronger Swiss franc at the moment."

LME Copper climbed to a two-week high yesterday after reopening from the long Easter weekend.

LME Copper climbed to a two-week high yesterday after reopening from the long Easter weekend. Trump's comments suggest room for de-escalation on the trade front"Dollar weakness seen in recent days is providing some support. Meanwhile, comments from Trump suggesting a reduction in China tariffs leave room for de-escalation on the trade front. Copper smelters in China boosted output to a record high in March." "This is despite record-low processing fees, partly driven by rising prices for by-products including gold and sulphuric acid. Production of refined Copper rose 8.6% in March from a year earlier to 1.25 million tonnes, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In the first quarter, China’s total output of refined Copper was 3.54 million tonnes, up 5% from 2024."

EUR-USD did not stay above 1.15 for long, instead we saw a broad-based recovery in the US dollar yesterday. A number of factors may have played a role. One of the most important was certainly Donald Trump's announcement last night that he has 'no intention of firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell'.

EUR-USD did not stay above 1.15 for long, instead we saw a broad-based recovery in the US dollar yesterday. A number of factors may have played a role. One of the most important was certainly Donald Trump's announcement last night that he has 'no intention of firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell'. This should, for the time being, ease (justified) concerns about the Fed's independence, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. EUR/USD retreats as USD finds temporary relief"There were a number of reports yesterday suggesting an easing of the trade war, at least in the short term. On the one hand, there were reports that a deal with Japan and India could be imminent, while on the other hand there were cautious signs for a de-escalation on the China front." "Trump insisted that Chinese tariffs, currently at 145%, would come down 'significantly' and the US Treasury Secretary said he expected a de-escalation soon. So there are plenty of signs of easing, although it should also be noted that the air in EUR/USD was getting thinner towards 1.16.""The US administration has given many indications recently that it prefers a weaker US dollar. And Trump is unlikely to change his erratic policy approach. Moreover, if the US real economy weakens as a result of trade policy, he will continue to blame Powell, whether it makes sense or not. We probably need to see more sustained signs of easing before EUR/USD falls more significantly towards 1.10. And after the last few weeks, I have to admit that I find it hard to believe that such signs will appear."

EUR/USD edged lower toward the 1.14 mark, as the broader USD staged a modest rebound across the G10 space, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

EUR/USD edged lower toward the 1.14 mark, as the broader USD staged a modest rebound across the G10 space, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. Buy-the-dip bias intact amid USD positioning risks"The move followed easing signals on the trade front, with Treasury Secretary Bessent noting that the tariff standoff with China is 'unsustainable,' triggering a mild relief rally in risk assets." "In this week's edition of Reading the Markets USD, we highlight that aggregate USD positioning is now approaching stretched short territory, while the cost of hedging further USD downside has reached record highs in the options market." "Overall, with investor confidence in US assets continuing to deteriorate and concerns over the economic outlook potentially deepening, we prefer to tactically buy EUR/USD on dips and maintain a strategically bullish stance on the cross, now targeting 1.22 over the next 12M."

Gold price (XAU/USD) is facing profit-taking pressure and nosedives on Wednesday towards $3,300 at the time of writing. The profit taking picked up on comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump, who did a 180-degree turn on his stance on China and the Federal Reserve (Fed).

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The profit taking picked up on comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump, who did a 180-degree turn on his stance on China and the Federal Reserve (Fed). After the closing bell, Tesla’s (TSLA) Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said he will reduce his role at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). President Trump rebuked earlier statements in which he was seeking to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell to say now that he has no intention to fire him despite his frustration with the Fed not moving more quickly with the interest rate cuts, the Wall Street Journal reported. The president went on to say that he will be “very nice” to China in any trade talks and that tariffs will drop if the two countries can reach a deal. Final tariffs on China would not be near 145%, but much lower, he said, Bloomberg reports. Daily digest market movers: Gold inversed with BitcoinGold has dipped in relation to Bitcoin this week, but its long-term trend of outperformance is expected to extend on demand for its safe-haven qualities. Investors will be expecting more sound bites from US leaders, which will muddy the outlook in the days ahead, Bloomberg reports. Central banks will keep buying Gold in a push to diversify from paper currencies amid the current political and economic upheaval, according to billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson, Reuters reports. “Gold’s tactically very overbought and extended - it’s risen $500 plus in 8 trading days, so naturally there’s likely a mix of a buyers’ pause and some risk reduction,” said Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS Pamp SA, Bloomberg reports.Gold Price Technical Analysis: Some profit taking at handThe precious metal sees its Relative Strength Index (RSI) come back in the normal trading range after having spent several days in the overbought area. Some more profit taking would make sense given the softer rhetoric from President Trump. Currently at around 63, it would make sense for the RSI to fall back to 50  with the Gold price probably looking for support near $3,167, the pivotal level from early April. The daily Pivot Point on the upside at $3,415 is the first level of resistance, which is quite far away and would mean Gold reverses in full and even turns positive on the day. Such a move would push the RSI back into overbought territory. Further up, the next resistance comes in at $3,464. On the downside, the first support is at $3,331, which already broke in early trading. Look at least for a test on the S2 at $3,282, which coincides with the April 17 low. Below, the pivotal level from early April should catch the traders’ attention as well at $3,167. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, has lost its intraday gains, trading around 99.00 during the European hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar Index may retest the psychological support at 99.00, followed by 97.91, its lowest point since March 2022.An upward correction is emerging, marked by a breakout above a descending triangle pattern.A decisive move above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average at 99.63 could strengthen short-term price momentum.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, has lost its intraday gains, trading around 99.00 during the European hours on Wednesday.On the daily chart, technical analysis points to the beginning of an upward correction, with the index breaking above a descending triangle pattern. This move is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has risen above the 30 level.However, the DXY continues to trade within the corresponding descending channel, signaling that the broader bearish bias remains intact. At the same time, it's attempting to break above its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which could point to emerging short-term bullish momentum.On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological level of 99.00, followed by 97.91 — the lowest level since March 2022. A break below this level could reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the US Dollar Index to return to the descending triangle around the 97.20 level.To the upside, the nine-day EMA at 99.63 is acting as the immediate barrier. A decisive break above this level may enhance short-term price momentum and pave the way for a test of the key resistance zone near the upper boundary of the descending channel at the monthly high of 101.20, followed by the 50-day EMA at 103.11.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% 0.09% 0.09% -0.02% -0.80% -0.39% 0.25% EUR -0.04% 0.03% 0.03% -0.07% -0.80% -0.45% 0.20% GBP -0.09% -0.03% 0.02% -0.11% -0.84% -0.48% 0.18% JPY -0.09% -0.03% -0.02% -0.11% -0.78% -0.50% 0.19% CAD 0.02% 0.07% 0.11% 0.11% -0.68% -0.35% 0.29% AUD 0.80% 0.80% 0.84% 0.78% 0.68% 0.37% 1.00% NZD 0.39% 0.45% 0.48% 0.50% 0.35% -0.37% 0.67% CHF -0.25% -0.20% -0.18% -0.19% -0.29% -1.00% -0.67% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. increased to €21B in February from previous €14B

Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in February

Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. rose from previous €1B to €24B in February

Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) dipped from previous 0.2% to -0.5% in February

European natural gas prices plunged almost 4% yesterday as storage continues to build. Gas inventories stand at 37% full after bottoming out at less than 34% full in late March, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

European natural gas prices plunged almost 4% yesterday as storage continues to build. Gas inventories stand at 37% full after bottoming out at less than 34% full in late March, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.EU mulls ban on Russian spot LNG amid gas market calm"However, storage levels are below last year’s levels and lower than average. Meanwhile, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) forward curve continues to move towards a more normal shape, with summer prices trading at a discount to winter prices. Behind this move are broader demand concerns and the potential for flexibility in EU storage targets.""The EU is reportedly discussing a potential ban on spot purchases of Russian gas to help reduce the region’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels. Possible actions to be taken are expected to be presented to EU members on 6 May. Russia is still a large supplier of natural gas to the region." "While Russian pipeline flows have fallen significantly in recent years, Russian LNG arrivals into Europe have grown. The fact that the EU is looking at options to reduce flows suggests that a return of Russian pipeline gas to Europe as part of a Russia/Ukraine peace deal is unlikely."

Oil rebounded yesterday along with other risk assets. ICE Brent settled almost 1.8% higher on the day after President Trump calmed concerns over the future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s position, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Oil rebounded yesterday along with other risk assets. ICE Brent settled almost 1.8% higher on the day after President Trump calmed concerns over the future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s position, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.API data confirms physical tightness in oil market"Trump stated he has no intention of firing Powell. In addition, comments from both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on tariffs opened the door for an easing of tensions between the US and China. Yet, signs of tightness in the prompt physical market should continue to support the oil market. This tightness can be seen in the strengthening of timespreads.""Numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API) overnight were also constructive. US crude oil inventories fell by 4.57m barrels, while stocks at Cushing declined by 354k barrels. Refined product inventories declined, with gasoline and distillate stocks falling by 2.18m barrels and 1.64m barrels, respectively." "The more widely followed Energy Information Administration report will be published later today. Numbers similar to API’s would mark the eighth consecutive week of declines in gasoline inventories."

The GBP/JPY cross retreats from the vicinity of the 190.00 psychological mark, or over a two-week top touched earlier this Wednesday.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/JPY attracts some intraday sellers after touching over a two-week high on Wednesday.Hopes for a US-Japan trade deal and BoJ rate hike bets underpin the JPY, exerting pressure.The disappointing UK PMIs weigh on the GBP and contribute to the pair’s intraday decline.The GBP/JPY cross retreats from the vicinity of the 190.00 psychological mark, or over a two-week top touched earlier this Wednesday. The intraday selling picks up pace in reaction to disappointing UK PMIs and drags spot prices to a fresh daily low, around the 188.25 region during the first half of the European session.The S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI eased to 44 in April from 44.9 in the previous month, while the Preliminary UK Services Business Activity Index unexpectedly contracted to 48.9. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, continues to weigh on the British Pound (GBP). The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, continues with its relative outperformance in the wake of hopes for a US-Japan trade deal, which further contributes to the GBP/JPY pair's intraday slide.Apart from this, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates and bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower borrowing costs suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. However, the optimism over the potential US-China trade tensions de-escalation remains supportive of the upbeat market mood and might cap gains for the JPY. This, in turn, could lend some support to the GBP/JPY cross and help limit further losses. Looking at the broader picture, spot prices remain confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so. This might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase, warranting some caution before placing aggressive directional bets. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory. Moreover, the recent repeated failures to move back above the 190.00 mark validate the near-term negative outlook for the GBP/JPY cross and favor bearish traders. However, any subsequent slide below the 188.00 mark might continue to find some support near the 187.50-187.45 horizontal zone. A convincing break below will reaffirm the negative bias and make the GBP/JPY cross vulnerable to weaken further below the 187.00 round figure, towards testing the next relevant support near the 186.60-186.55 region. Spot prices could eventually drop to the 186.00 mark, which if broken should pave the way for deeper near-term losses.On the flip side, any positive move back above the 189.00 mark could face some resistance near the 189.45-189.50 region, above which the GBP/JPY cross could make a fresh attempt to conquer the 190.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter might shift the bias in favor of bullish traders and trigger a short-covering rally towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) hurdle, currently pegged just above the 191.00 mark.GBP/JPY daily chart Economic Indicator S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in UK for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation.The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the UK private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 23, 2025 08:30 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 48.2 Consensus: 50.4 Previous: 51.5 Source: S&P Global

The US Dollar (USD) rebounded alongside US equities yesterday as market fears about tariffs eased partially, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The US Dollar (USD) rebounded alongside US equities yesterday as market fears about tariffs eased partially, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.USD finds footing after oversold stretch"We also suspect some positioning rebalancing is behind the dollar recovery. As we warned in yesterday’s FX Daily, the dollar was facing a new degree of downside risks stemming from Trump’s attack on the Fed’s independence, but the greenback’s position was undeniably oversold and undervalued, meaning that a return to better FX liquidity on Tuesday could have favoured some stabilisation.""Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threw a lifeline to fragile US sentiment with conciliatory remarks on the US-China trade war. Bessent said the current tariff situation is “unsustainable” and expects a de-escalation in the near term. We could witness a period where the dollar is tossed around by headlines of Fed independence risk and market-friendly news on US tariff policy. What is clear by now is that no other G10 currency has a higher positive beta to trade news than the dollar.""Net-net, we still think the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside for USD in the near term, but we don’t expect a repetition of the one-way traffic in dollar selling we have witnessed of late. Looking a few weeks ahead, our preference is for a stabilisation in the dollar rather than another structural weakening."

Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

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Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 113.75 against the INR in the early European trading hours, also advancing after the GBP/INR pair settled at 113.63 at the previous close. Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee? The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee? India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee? Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee? India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 44 in April from 44.9 in March. The data matched the market consensus of 44 in the reported period.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}UK Services PMI dipped to 48.9 in April, missing expectations.Manufacturing PMI in the UK unexpectedly declined to 44 in April.GBP/USD posts moderate losses below 1.3300 after UK business PMIs.The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 44 in April from 44.9 in March. The data matched the market consensus of 44 in the reported period.Meanwhile, the Preliminary UK Services Business Activity Index contracted to 48.9 in April versus March’s 52.5 while coming in below the 51.3 expected figure.FX implicationsGBP/USD keeps the offered tone intact below 1.3300 after the mixed UK PMI data. The pair is down 0.27% on the day, as of writing. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.20% 0.27% 0.13% 0.04% -0.77% -0.30% 0.31% EUR -0.20% 0.05% -0.10% -0.18% -0.92% -0.52% 0.10% GBP -0.27% -0.05% -0.13% -0.23% -0.98% -0.57% 0.07% JPY -0.13% 0.10% 0.13% -0.10% -0.80% -0.46% 0.20% CAD -0.04% 0.18% 0.23% 0.10% -0.70% -0.31% 0.30% AUD 0.77% 0.92% 0.98% 0.80% 0.70% 0.43% 1.03% NZD 0.30% 0.52% 0.57% 0.46% 0.31% -0.43% 0.64% CHF -0.31% -0.10% -0.07% -0.20% -0.30% -1.03% -0.64% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 48.9 below forecasts (51.3) in April

United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (44) in April

United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI below expectations (50.4) in April: Actual (48.2)

AUD/JPY snaps a three-day losing streak, trading around 90.90 during Wednesday’s European session.

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The currency cross finds support as resilient Australian economic data and upbeat global sentiment boost demand for the Australian Dollar (AUD), despite cautious remarks from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.The AUD/JPY cross holds gains as comments from the Chinese Foreign Ministry failed to deter AUD buyers. In response to US President Donald Trump’s comments about trade with China, China’s Foreign Ministry criticized Washington’s approach, emphasizing that true progress requires dialogue based on equality and mutual benefit. Trump struck an optimistic tone, stating that trade talks with China, Australia's key trading partner, were making headway. He clarified that while tariffs wouldn’t be as extreme as 145%, they also wouldn't be entirely lifted.The AUD drew further strength from preliminary April data from Australia’s Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which indicated the private sector expanded for a seventh straight month. Although the Manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 51.7 (from 52.1 in March) and Services PMI dipped to 51.4 (from 51.6), both sectors remained in expansion territory, underscoring steady economic momentum.The Japanese Yen (JPY), meanwhile, weakened as risk appetite improved following Trump’s reaffirmed support for Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, reducing safe-haven demand. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added to the optimistic tone, calling the ongoing US-China trade tensions “unsustainable” and expressing confidence in a resolution.On the Japanese data front, the impact of mixed preliminary PMIs was limited. The Jibun Bank Composite PMI rose to 51.1 in April from 48.9, signaling renewed expansion. Services PMI improved to 52.2 from 50.0, supported by a rise in new and overseas orders, while Manufacturing PMI ticked up slightly to 48.5, continuing a ten-month contraction streak. Hopes for an interim US-Japan trade deal also buoyed sentiment. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

Headline SMEI retreated to 50.4 in April as all key sub-indices edged down from March. IT and transport services performance sub-indices fell below 50; manufacturing SMEs outperformed.

Headline SMEI retreated to 50.4 in April as all key sub-indices edged down from March. IT and transport services performance sub-indices fell below 50; manufacturing SMEs outperformed. Credit conditions remained steady, but not more favourable; exchange rate expectations were more stable, Standard Chartered's note. Tariff impact appears limited for now"Our proprietary Small and Medium Enterprise Confidence Index (SMEI; Bloomberg: SCCNSMEI <Index>) returned to the February reading of 50.4 in April after jumping to 51.2 in March. While the performance and expectations sub-indices edged down by 0.9pts and 1pt, respectively, from March, both stayed in expansionary territory, indicating still-steady growth and a stable outlook.""Manufacturing SMEs outperformed on steady growth in sales, production, new orders and new export orders, despite heightened bilaterial tariffs imposed by both China and the US. The US’ 90-day pause on non-China reciprocal tariffs may have supported front-loaded activity. In contrast, the performance index for non-manufacturing SMEs fell marginally below 50 again, after rising sharply in the previous month. Sales and new orders remained relatively stable, but labour usage, investment and profitability for non-manufacturing SMEs declined versus March. Real estate and construction activity picked up entering Q2, while that of IT and transport performance softened." "The credit sub-indices edged down further to 50 in April, the lowest reading since August 2024, suggesting a stable credit environment for SMEs. Banks appear to have remained supportive to SMEs, albeit without further improvement. Funding costs for SMEs borrowing from non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) fell again. Interestingly, c.97% of the surveyed SMEs expect a stable USD-CNY in the coming three months."

The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while the service sector followed suit in April, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 in April, beating the 47.5 estimate.Bloc’s Services PMI dropped to 49.7 in April vs. 50.5 anticipated.EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1400 after German, Eurozone PMI data.            The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while the service sector followed suit in April, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Wednesday.The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 48.7 in April from 48.6 in March, beating the market expectations of 47.5.The bloc’s Services PMI fell to 49.7 April from 51 in March. The data came in below the estimated 50.5 print and hit a five-month low.The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite arrived at 50.1 in April, following March’s 50.9. The market consensus was 50.3.EUR/USD reaction to the Eurozone PMIs dataEUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.1400 following the mixed Eurozone PMI data, losing 0.32% on a daily basis. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $943.75 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $933.05. In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $967.85 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also up after the XPT/USD pair settled at $961.15 at the previous close.

South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.7% in March from previous 3.2%

South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) declined to 0.4% in March from previous 0.9%

Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (47.5) in April: Actual (48.7)

Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (50.3) in April: Actual (50.1)

Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 49.7, below expectations (50.5) in April

This Wednesday, S&P Global will unveil its preliminary April Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the United States, drawing on surveys of senior private sector executives to offer an early read on economic momentum.

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#ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The S&P Global advanced PMIs for April are seen worsening further.Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in June by 25 bps.EUR/USD keeps the trade in the area of three-year highs past 1.1500.This Wednesday, S&P Global will unveil its preliminary April Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the United States, drawing on surveys of senior private sector executives to offer an early read on economic momentum. The report comprises three measures — the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI and the Composite PMI (a weighted blend of the two) — each calibrated so that readings above 50 denote expansion and those below 50 signal contraction. Published well ahead of many official statistics, these monthly snapshots assess everything from output and export trends to capacity utilization, employment and inventory levels, providing one of the first indicators of the economy’s direction. In March, the Composite PMI came in at 53.5, improving from the previous month’s 51.6 reading. According to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, “The strong start to the year for US manufacturers has faltered in March. A combination of improved optimism surrounding the new administration and the need to front-run tariffs had buoyed the goods-producing sector in the first two months of the year, but cracks are now starting to appear. Production fell for the first time in three months in March, and order books are becoming increasingly depleted.” What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report? Investors are bracing for a modest pullback in April’s flash Manufacturing PMI, expected to slip from 50.2 to 49.4, while the Services PMI is forecast to ease from 54.4 to 52.8. Although a slight downturn in factory output may not alarm markets, any resilience — or rebound — above the 50 threshold could soothe lingering growth concerns, especially if service sector momentum holds firm. Investors will be zeroing in on the PMIs’ granular inflation and employment gauges. In his latest comments, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the Fed’s deliberate approach to restarting its easing cycle, warning that anchoring consumer price expectations remains paramount amid mounting uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff crusade. A marked surprise in the services PMI — paired with manufacturing’s return to expansion — would likely give the US Dollar a boost. Meanwhile, evidence of rising input costs in services alongside robust job gains would cement bets on a “higher‑for‑longer” Fed. Conversely, signs of easing price pressures and lackluster private sector hiring could rekindle hopes for fresh monetary relief — and weigh on the Greenback. When will the March flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD? The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs report will be released on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT and is expected to show US business activity extending the loss of momentum observed since the turn of the year. Ahead of Wednesday’s PMI flash readings, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet warns that a bullish turn in EUR/USD could see spot challenge its YTD peak of 1.1572 (April 21), ahead of the October 2021 high at 1.1692 (October 28), and the September 2021 top at 1.1909 (September 3). Conversely, Piovano notes that occasional bearish moves should not meet any support of relevance until the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0762, which reinforces the weekly trough at 1.0732 (March 27). “While above the 200-day SMA, the pair’s bullish stance should remain unchanged”, Piovano adds. Technical indicators still paint a constructive picture, although they warn of a potential correction in the pipeline: While the Average Directional Index (ADX) surpasses the 51 level, indicative of a strong trend, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) well in the overbought region above 75 hints at the idea that a probable “technical correction” may be in the offing, Piovano concludes. Economic Indicator S&P Global Manufacturing PMI The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Last release: Tue Apr 01, 2025 13:45 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 50.2Consensus: 49.8Previous: 49.8Source: S&P Global GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.  

The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some of its initial losses against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session, still trading lower in the day around 1.3300. The GBP/USD pair pares some intraday losses as the US Dollar (USD) retraces after a sharp upside move on Wednesday.

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The GBP/USD pair pares some intraday losses as the US Dollar (USD) retraces after a sharp upside move on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects to near 99.20 from the earlier high of 99.88.Investors brace for more recovery in the US Dollar on optimism over de-escalation in the United States (US)-China trade war and diminishing fears of President Donald Trump sacking Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates.While addressing reporters at the Oval Office on Tuesday, Donald Trump highlighted a “sharp reduction in trade deficits” and “rising revenue” generated from the imposition of tariffs on foreign cars, aluminium, and steel. Trump expressed confidence that his administration is negotiating deals with several countries, which will be effective soon. On the current situation with China, Trump commented that “discussions with Beijing are going well”. The President added that he thinks “they will reach a deal”. Trump further added that tariffs on China would not be as high as “145%, but they wouldn’t be zero”.Moreover, President Trump pushed back fears of removing Jerome Powell despite criticizing him for not supporting monetary policy expansion. “The press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.”In the last few trading sessions, investors were punishing the US Dollar and US assets due to Trump’s assault on the Fed’s independence and ever-changing headlines on trade policies. Market participants started doubting the safe-haven status of the US Dollar. In North American trading hours, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling declines ahead of flash UK/US PMI dataThe Pound Sterling trades lower against most of its peers on Wednesday ahead of the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS PMI data for April, which will be published at 08:30 GMT. The PMI report is expected to show that the overall business activity grew at a moderate pace. The Composite PMI is expected to come in at 50.4, down from 51.5 in March due to weakness in both the manufacturing and services sectors.According to estimates, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 44.0 from the prior release of 44.9. At the same time, the Services PMI is expected to expand at a moderate pace of 51.3 from 52.5 in March. Business owners are expected to have underutilized their capacity in April due to fears of potential global economic turmoil in the face of uncertainty over tariff policies by US President Trump. This week, investors will also focus on the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for March, which will be released on Friday. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have declined by 0.4% month-on-month after rising by 1% in February. On the monetary policy front, market participants are confident that the Bank of England (BoE) could reduce interest rates in the May policy meeting. Traders have become increasingly confident about an interest rate reduction next month due to slower-than-expected growth in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March and the uncertainty over the global economic outlook.Additionally, slowing UK wage growth is also paving the way for further monetary policy easing. Britain’s human resources data firm Brightmine showed on Tuesday that pay awards rose by 3% for the fourth rolling quarter in a row, which is the slowest increase since December 2021.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling holds key EMAsThe Pound Sterling corrects to near 1.3300 against the US Dollar during European trading hours on Wednesday after visiting the three-year high around 1.3430 the previous day. However, the outlook of the pair remains firm as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down slightly after reaching overbought levels above 70.00. This indicates a mild correction in the pair after a strong rally, but the upside trend is intact.On the upside, the psychological level of 1.3500 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate in line with forecasts (5.75%)

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $64.53 per barrel, up from Tuesday’s close at $63.36.

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·       Germany’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48 in April vs. 47.6 forecast.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} ·       Germany’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48 in April vs. 47.6 forecast.·       Services PMI for the German economy fell to 48.8 in April vs. 50.2 estimate.·       EUR/USD keeps the red near 1.1400 after mixed German PMIs.The HCOB Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone’s top economy dropped to 48 this month, compared with March’s 48.3, beating the estimate of 47.6. The measure flipped to a two-month low.Meanwhile, Services PMI contracted to 48.8 in April from 50.9 in March. The market forecast was for a 50.2 print in the reported period. The gauge reached a 14-month low.The HCOB Preliminary German Composite Output Index arrived at 49.7 in April vs. 51.3 in March and 50.4 expected. The index was at its lowest level in four months.FX implications EUR/USD is unfazed by the mixed German data, down 0.12% on the day at 1.1403 at the time of writing. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.14% 0.05% 0.10% 0.02% -0.82% -0.38% 0.27% EUR -0.14% -0.10% -0.03% -0.13% -0.90% -0.52% 0.12% GBP -0.05% 0.10% 0.08% -0.03% -0.81% -0.43% 0.24% JPY -0.10% 0.03% -0.08% -0.11% -0.82% -0.51% 0.17% CAD -0.02% 0.13% 0.03% 0.11% -0.73% -0.38% 0.27% AUD 0.82% 0.90% 0.81% 0.82% 0.73% 0.40% 1.03% NZD 0.38% 0.52% 0.43% 0.51% 0.38% -0.40% 0.68% CHF -0.27% -0.12% -0.24% -0.17% -0.27% -1.03% -0.68% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (50.2) in April: Actual (48.8)

Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (47.6) in April: Actual (48)

Germany HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (50.4) in April: Actual (49.7)

Responding to US President Donald Trump’s comment regarding a trade deal with China, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that “the US can't say it wants to reach an agreement with China and on the other hand, keeps exerting extreme pressure.”

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France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 47.3, below expectations (47.8) in April

France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (47.7) in April: Actual (46.8)

France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48) in April: Actual (48.2)

The NZD/USD pair recovers its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.6000 during early European trading hours on Wednesday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a bullish bias, with the formation of an ascending channel pattern.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD may test the key resistance at 0.6038 — a six-month high last reached in November 2024.Daily chart analysis suggests a bullish bias, highlighted by the presence of an ascending channel pattern.Initial support lies near the lower boundary of this channel, around 0.5940.The NZD/USD pair recovers its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.6000 during early European trading hours on Wednesday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a bullish bias, with the formation of an ascending channel pattern. Moreover, the pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling improved short-term price momentum.Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is climbing back toward the 70 mark, reinforcing the prevailing bullish bias. A decisive move above this level could indicate overbought conditions, potentially increasing the risk of a short-term pullback.On the upside, the NZD/USD pair could challenge the key resistance at the six-month high of 0.6038, last seen in November 2024. A sustained break above this level would pave the way for a move toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6190. A successful breach of this resistance would likely reinforce the bullish outlook and potentially open the path toward the seven-month high near 0.6350, recorded in October 2024.The initial support is located at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.5940, followed by the nine-day EMA at 0.5907. A break below these levels could weaken the short-term bullish momentum and open the door for further downside toward the 50-day EMA at 0.5766. Additional support is seen at 0.5485—a level not visited since March 2020.NZD/USD: Daily Chart New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.24% 0.09% -0.01% 0.04% -0.81% -0.40% 0.24% EUR -0.24% -0.17% -0.24% -0.21% -0.99% -0.65% -0.01% GBP -0.09% 0.17% -0.09% -0.05% -0.84% -0.48% 0.17% JPY 0.01% 0.24% 0.09% 0.05% -0.68% -0.41% 0.27% CAD -0.04% 0.21% 0.05% -0.05% -0.74% -0.41% 0.22% AUD 0.81% 0.99% 0.84% 0.68% 0.74% 0.37% 1.03% NZD 0.40% 0.65% 0.48% 0.41% 0.41% -0.37% 0.66% CHF -0.24% 0.01% -0.17% -0.27% -0.22% -1.03% -0.66% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published its Financial System Report on Wednesday, noting that “Japan's financial system has been maintaining stability on the whole.”

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published its Financial System Report on Wednesday, noting that “Japan's financial system has been maintaining stability on the whole.”Additional takeawaysFinancial institutions need to be vigilant against materialization of various risks.Since the beginning of April, financial markets at home and abroad have fluctuated significantly.Considering that Japanese banks have a certain amount of market risk associated with stockholdings, developments in asset prices warrant attention.Market reactionAt the time of writing, USD/JPY is up 0.10% on the day at 141.70.

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 23:

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S&P Global will publish preliminary Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US on Wednesday. Markets will also pay close attention to comments from central bankers. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.09% -0.18% -0.26% -0.23% -0.55% -1.05% 0.63% EUR -0.09% -0.42% -0.40% -0.37% -0.82% -1.19% 0.53% GBP 0.18% 0.42% 0.21% 0.06% -0.41% -0.76% 0.95% JPY 0.26% 0.40% -0.21% 0.02% -0.39% -0.64% 0.94% CAD 0.23% 0.37% -0.06% -0.02% -0.43% -0.81% 0.89% AUD 0.55% 0.82% 0.41% 0.39% 0.43% -0.33% 1.33% NZD 1.05% 1.19% 0.76% 0.64% 0.81% 0.33% 1.75% CHF -0.63% -0.53% -0.95% -0.94% -0.89% -1.33% -1.75% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Easing fears over the Federal Reserve (Fed) losing its independence allowed the market mood to improve in the American session on Tuesday.US President Donald Trump said at a press conference that he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, despite being frustrated with high interest rates. "The press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates," Trump said. Regarding the trade negotiations with China, he noted that they were going well and added that he thinks they will reach a deal.Reflecting the risk-positive market environment, Wall Street's main indexes gained more than 2.5% on Tuesday. Early Wednesday, US stock index futures rise between 1.3% and 2%, while the USD Index stays in negative territory above 99.00. Later in the day, the Fed will publish its Beige Book.After touching a new record high of $3,500 on Tuesday, Gold reversed its direction and ended the day below $3,400. XAU/USD extends its correction in the European morning and was last seen losing more than 2% on the day near $3,300.EUR/USD fell 0.8% on Tuesday and erased a large part of Monday's gains. After dropping toward 1.1300 in the Asian session on Wednesday, the pair regained its traction and recovered toward 1.1400 by the beginning of the European session.GBP/USD fell below 1.3250 early Wednesday after closing in negative territory on Tuesday. The pair managed to stage a rebound and advanced beyond 1.3300 in the early European morning, erasing its daily losses in the process. After slumping to its weakest level since September below 140.00 early Tuesday, USD/JPY reversed its direction and ended the day with a gain of about 0.5%. The pair holds steady above 141.50 in the European session. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

The EUR/GBP cross trades in the negative territory near 0.8550 during the early European session on Wednesday. The dovish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) weighs on the Euro (EUR) against the Pound Sterling.

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The dovish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) weighs on the Euro (EUR) against the Pound Sterling. All eyes will be on the preliminary readings of the April Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the UK and the Eurozone, which will be released later on Wednesday. The rising bets that the ECB could cut interest rates again in the June policy meeting weigh on the shared currency. After policymakers agreed unanimously to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that downside risks to economic growth have increased. According to LSEG data, traders are now pricing in nearly a 75% odds of a June rate cut, up from roughly 60% before the ECB's decision. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump’s trade tirades dampen economic growth, including for the US, and threaten to undermine financial stability.On the GBP’s front, the positive developments surrounding US-UK trade talks provide some support to the GBP. The Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday that the Trump administration is preparing its terms for trade talks with the UK, aiming for London to reduce levies and other non-tariff barriers on a wide range of US goods. The US will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5% and will also push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US, including beef, and revise rules of origin for goods from each nation, according to people with knowledge. However, any signs of uncertainty in trade policy could weigh on the GBP.  Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

FX option expiries for Apr 23 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 23 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1370 929m1.1375 863m1.1400 2b1.1510 847mUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 140.55 430mUSD/CHF: USD amounts     0.8000 550m0.8450 450mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6300 1.2b0.6320 865m0.6355 1.1b0.6400 872mUSD/CAD: USD amounts       1.3975 592mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5855 705m

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at £16.444B, above expectations (£16.05B) in March

GBP/USD extended its losses during Wednesday’s Asian session, trading around 1.3300 after pulling back from a seven-month high of 1.3424 recorded in the previous session.

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The pair weakened as investor appetite shifted back toward US assets, including the US Dollar (USD), buoyed by a more optimistic tone from US President Donald Trump.President Trump helped ease market concerns by affirming his support for Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, stating, “The press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.”Further improving sentiment, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the ongoing trade conflict with China as "unsustainable" and voiced confidence in resolving it. Although formal negotiations have yet to begin, Bessent reportedly told attendees at a private JP Morgan Chase & Co. event in Washington that a deal may soon be achievable.Trump reinforced this optimism, highlighting progress in trade talks with China. While he dismissed the prospect of steep tariff increases—clarifying that tariffs would not climb to 145%—he also stated that existing tariffs would remain in place for the time being.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) remains under pressure as investors grow more cautious about the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook, particularly in light of international trade tensions driven by Trump’s administration. Speculation is mounting that the BoE may opt to cut interest rates at its May policy meeting due to ongoing global economic uncertainty.Adding to the pressure, the UK’s trade relationship with the US is in flux after the Trump administration imposed 10% reciprocal tariffs and 25% levies on steel and foreign cars. While a trade deal remains possible, current dynamics weigh on GBP sentiment. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The USD/CHF pair drifts higher to near 0.8225 during the early European session on Wednesday, bolstered by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Hope for the US-China trade deal provides a boost for investors.

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Hope for the US-China trade deal provides a boost for investors. Additionally, US President Donald Trump backed away from threats of firing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, which provides some support to the Greenback. According to the daily chart, the bearish sentiment of USD/CHF prevails as the pair is below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Furthermore, the downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 36.0, supporting the sellers in the near term. The initial support level for the pair emerges at 0.8121, the low of April 16. Further south, the additional downside filter to watch is 0.8040, the low of April 21. The key contention level is seen at the 0.8000 psychological level. On the flip side, the first upside barrier for USD/CHF is located at 0.8360, the low of April 9. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to 0.8609 the high of April 8. A decisive break above the mentioned level could see a rally to 0.8750, the 100-day EMA. USD/CHF daily chart Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

India HSBC Services PMI climbed from previous 58.5 to 59.1 in April

India HSBC Composite PMI climbed from previous 59.5 to 60 in April

India HSBC Manufacturing PMI increased to 58.4 in April from previous 58.1

Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (1) in March: Actual (0.9)

The EUR/USD pair attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day on Wednesday and drops to a one-week low during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, rebound a few pips from the 1.1300 neighborhood and currently trade around the 1.1380 region, still down over 0.35% for the day.

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A sustained break and acceptance below 1.1300 could pave the way for some meaningful decline.The EUR/USD pair attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day on Wednesday and drops to a one-week low during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, rebound a few pips from the 1.1300 neighborhood and currently trade around the 1.1380 region, still down over 0.35% for the day. The US Dollar (USD) builds on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of a three-year low touched on Monday and turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. That said, the weakening confidence in the US economy, along with the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the risk-on impulse, caps gains for the safe-haven buck and helps limit losses for the currency pair. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair showed resilience below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally witnessed over the past month or so, from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Furthermore, the bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), along with the fact that the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has eased from the overbought zone, favors bulls. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the 1.1300 round figure before confirming that the EUR/USD pair has topped out near the 1.1575 area, or the highest level since November 2021 touched earlier this month. This will set the stage for a further corrective decline towards the 1.1250 area, or the 38.2% Fibo. level, en route to the 1.1200 mark and the 1.1160-1.1155 region, representing the 50% Fibo. level.On the flip side, the 1.1400 round figure might now act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the Asian session high, around the 1.1425-1.1430 region. Some follow-through buying should lift the EUR/USD pair further beyond the 1.1500 psychological mark, towards challenging the multi-year peak, around the 1.1575 region touched earlier this month. Spot prices could eventually aim to reclaim the 1.1600 round-figure mark.EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,163.75 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,272.21 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 106,883.00 per tola from INR 108,148.30 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,163.75 10 Grams 91,636.47 Tola 106,883.00 Troy Ounce 285,027.20   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls remain on the defensive amid hopes for a US-China trade deal US equity indices rose sharply on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump backtracked on his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and said that he has no intention of firing him before the expiry of his term in May 2026. Adding to this, upbeat comments from Trump administration officials about US-China trade talks further boosted investors' confidence and prompted some profit-taking around the safe-haven Gold price following the recent record run. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the tariff war between the US and China would de-escalate soon. Later, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the Trump administration is setting the stage for a deal. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he had a positive attitude towards any peace initiatives. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that we are ready to sit down in any format after the ceasefire. Meanwhile, Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies has eroded investors' trust and weakened confidence in the US economy. This fails to assist the US Dollar in preserving modest Asian session gains and supports the XAU/USD pair. Furthermore, the markets have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs at least three times by the end of this year, further benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now look forward to the release of global flash PMIs for a fresh insight into global economic health. This, along with trade-related developments, will influence the risk sentiment and provide some impetus to the precious metal. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) rose from previous -0.3% to 0% in February

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around $32.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. However, prices of grey metal faced headwinds as investor optimism grew over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence.

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However, prices of grey metal faced headwinds as investor optimism grew over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence.US President Donald Trump helped calm markets by clarifying he has no intention of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stating, “The press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.”Market sentiment was further lifted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who called the ongoing tariff dispute with China "unsustainable" and expressed optimism about a resolution. Though formal talks have yet to begin, Bessent suggested a deal is within reach, according to attendees of a private JP Morgan Chase & Co. event in Washington.However, Silver continues to find support from this positive backdrop. President Trump echoed an upbeat outlook, noting progress in trade negotiations with China. While he dismissed the possibility of steep tariff hikes—clarifying they wouldn’t reach 145%—he also confirmed tariffs would not be fully lifted.As Silver plays a vital role in industries like electronics, solar energy, and automotive manufacturing, any improvement in US-China trade relations could boost demand, particularly given China’s position as a global manufacturing powerhouse. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The EUR/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on its modest Asian session gains and attracts some intraday sellers in the vicinity of mid-162.00s on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY surrenders a major part of Asian session gains, though the downside seems limited.Hopes for a US-Japan trade deal and BoJ rate hike bets underpin the JPY, capping the cross.The risk-on impulse acts as a headwind for the safe-haven JPY and could support spot prices.The EUR/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on its modest Asian session gains and attracts some intraday sellers in the vicinity of mid-162.00s on Wednesday. Spot prices retreat to the lower end of the daily range, around the 161.80-161.75 area in the last hour, stalling the overnight bounce from sub-161.00 levels or a nearly two-week low. Despite mixed PMI data from Japan, hopes that Japan will strike a trade deal with the US, along with expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates, underpin the Japanese Yen (JPY) and cap the EUR/JPY cross. In fact, reports indicated that the BoJ is planning to signal next week that there is almost no need to change its basic stance on raising interest rates as the impact of increased US tariffs will not disrupt the ongoing cycle of wage growth and inflation.This marks a big divergence in comparison to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish decision last week, which along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, is seen weighing on the shared currency and acting as a headwind for the EUR/JPY cross. The ECB lowered interest rates for the seventh time in a year last Thursday and warned that economic growth will take a big hit from US tariffs. This, in turn, bolstered the case for further policy easing by the ECB in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the optimism fueled by easing US-China trade tensions remains supportive of the risk-on impulse. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven JPY and lend some support to the EUR/JPY cross. Even from a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past two weeks or so warrants some caution before positioning for a firm near-term direction. Traders now look to the flash Eurozone PMIs for a fresh impetus. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracted dip-buyers in Asia on Wednesday, stalling its retreat from the $3,500 peak hit the day before.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price rebounds from the Asian session trough as the USD stalls its recovery from a multi-year low.The weakening investors’ confidence in the US economy and Fed rate cut bets weigh on the Greenback. The optimism over easing US-China tensions remains supportive of the risk-on impulse and caps the XAU/USD pair. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracted dip-buyers in Asia on Wednesday, stalling its retreat from the $3,500 peak hit the day before. The attempted US Dollar (USD) recovery from a multi-year low faltered amid the weakening confidence in the US economy on the back of US President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth tariff announcements. Apart from this, the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) prompt some intraday USD selling and turn out to be a key factor that helps revive demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.Meanwhile, Trump administration officials hinted at a potential de-escalation of the ongoing tariff dispute with China and fueled optimism about a trade deal. Adding to this Trump stepped back from his threats to dismiss Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated he is open to the prospect of direct talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy, raising hopes for a ceasefire and further boosting investors' appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a sharp recovery across the global equity markets, which, in turn, is holding back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the safe-haven Gold price. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls remain on the defensive amid hopes for a US-China trade dealUS equity indices rose sharply on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump backtracked on his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and said that he has no intention of firing him before the expiry of his term in May 2026. Adding to this, upbeat comments from Trump administration officials about US-China trade talks further boosted investors' confidence and prompted some profit-taking around the safe-haven Gold price following the recent record run. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the tariff war between the US and China would de-escalate soon. Later, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the Trump administration is setting the stage for a deal. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he had a positive attitude towards any peace initiatives. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that we are ready to sit down in any format after the ceasefire.Meanwhile, Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies has eroded investors' trust and weakened confidence in the US economy. This fails to assist the US Dollar in preserving modest Asian session gains and supports the XAU/USD pair. Furthermore, the markets have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs at least three times by the end of this year, further benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now look forward to the release of global flash PMIs for a fresh insight into global economic health. This, along with trade-related developments, will influence the risk sentiment and provide some impetus to the precious metal.Gold price could extend the corrective slide from the all-time peak while below the 23.6% Fibo. levelFrom a technical perspective, the precious metal now seems to have found acceptance below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest leg up from the vicinity of mid-$2,900s, or the monthly swing low. This, along with the lack of any further intraday buying, could be seen as initial signs of possible bullish exhaustion and supports prospects for further losses. However, oscillators on the daily chart are still holding comfortably in positive territory and warrant caution before placing aggressive bearish bets. Hence, any subsequent slide below the Asian session low, around the $3,315 area, is likely to find decent support and remain limited near the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $3,289 region. That said, a convincing break below the latter should pave the way for some meaningful corrective fall in the near term. On the flip side, the $3,370 area (23.6% Fibo. level) now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $3,400 mark. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the Gold price to the $3,424-3,425 horizontal resistance, above which bulls could make a fresh attempt to conquer the $3,500 psychological mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter will set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past four months or so. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its rally for a second straight session, trading around $63.90 per barrel during Asian hours on Wednesday. The continued rise in Oil prices comes amid fresh United States (US) sanctions on Iran and signs of tightening supply.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price edged higher, supported by new US sanctions on Iran and growing signs of tightening supply.The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a draw of 4.6 million barrels in US crude inventories last week.President Trump expressed optimism over ongoing US-China trade negotiations, highlighting encouraging progress in discussions.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its rally for a second straight session, trading around $63.90 per barrel during Asian hours on Wednesday. The continued rise in Oil prices comes amid fresh United States (US) sanctions on Iran and signs of tightening supply.On Tuesday, the US imposed new sanctions targeting Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh, a major player in Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and crude Oil shipping, along with his corporate network. According to the US Treasury, Emamjomeh’s group has facilitated the export of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Iranian Oil products to international markets, per Reuters.Adding to the bullish momentum, US crude stockpiles showed a sharp decline. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a drawdown of approximately 4.6 million barrels last week, according to market sources. Official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due Wednesday, with Reuters' analysts forecasting an average decline of 800,000 barrels.Crude Oil prices were also supported by a more upbeat market mood. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the current tariff standoff “unsustainable,” hinting at potential easing of trade tensions. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reassured markets that he has no plans to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helping alleviate concerns about central bank independence.President Trump also struck an optimistic tone on US-China trade talks, noting progress in negotiations. While he ruled out extreme tariff hikes—stating they wouldn’t reach 145%—he confirmed that tariffs would not be fully lifted either. The White House indicated that efforts are underway to negotiate trade deals aimed at reducing the broad tariffs introduced earlier this month. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

The Indian Rupee (INR) edges lower on Wednesday as rising crude oil prices and a renewed US Dollar (USD) demand weigh on sentiment and drag the Indian currency lower. The terrorist attack in Kashmir, India, contributes to the INR's downside.

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The terrorist attack in Kashmir, India, contributes to the INR's downside. At least 28 people were killed and many wounded on Tuesday when terrorists opened fire in a picturesque meadow near the resort town of Pahalgam in J&K, marking the deadliest attack since 2019.Nonetheless, potential portfolio inflows into local shares might help limit the INR’s losses. The preliminary reading of India’s April HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is due later on Wednesday. On the US docket, the flash S&P Global PMI report will be the highlight. Indian Rupee remains weak amid global trade uncertaintyIndia’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is cutting short his visit to Saudi Arabia following the deadly terror attack on tourists in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, sources said Tuesday. Modi is expected to leave Jeddah tonight and land in India early Wednesday morning, given the 2.5-hour time difference.Mumbai has emerged as the top destination for real estate equity investments in India, attracting $6.9 billion between calendar years 2022 and 2024, according to CBRE South Asia Pvt. Ltd. and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).The White House said on Tuesday that the Trump administration was making progress on negotiations of trade deals aimed at reducing the sweeping tariffs he announced earlier this month. US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that 18 different countries have presented trade offers to the US and that Trump's trade team was meeting with 34 countries this week to discuss potential agreements.  Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler said late Tuesday that with US import tariffs significantly larger than expected and likely to put upward pressure on prices, the US central bank ought to keep short-term borrowing costs steady until inflation risks recede.Money market traders have priced in 91 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. USD/INR’s bearish bias prevails under the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee trades on a weaker note on the day. The longer-term downtrend of the USD/INR remains in play, with the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 37.25. The 85.00-84.90 zone acts as a key support level for USD/INR, representing the psychological level and the lower limit of the descending trend channel. A breach of this level could drag the price lower to 84.53, the low of December 6, 2024. The next contention level to watch is 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024. In the bullish case, the first upside barrier emerges at 85.85,  the 100-day EMA. If momentum picks up, bulls could target 86.45, the upper boundary of the trend channel.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

USD/CAD edges higher, rebounding from two consecutive sessions of losses, and is trading near 1.3830 during Asian hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD gains as the US Dollar strengthens after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at a potential de-escalation in trade tensions.The White House also signaled progress in trade talks aimed at easing the broad tariffs introduced earlier this month.The CAD found support from rising crude Oil prices, driven by sanctions on Iran and a decline in US stockpiles.USD/CAD edges higher, rebounding from two consecutive sessions of losses, and is trading near 1.3830 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) found support following remarks by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who called the ongoing tariff dispute "unsustainable," hinting at potential de-escalation.On Tuesday, the White House announced progress in trade negotiations aimed at reducing the sweeping tariffs imposed earlier this month. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that 18 countries have already submitted trade proposals, with President Trump's team set to meet representatives from 34 nations this week to explore possible deals.However, the USD/CAD pair rally may be limited as the Canadian Dollar (CAD), a commodity-linked currency, gains support from rising crude Oil prices. As the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US), Canada benefits from stronger Oil markets.Crude prices continued to climb amid new sanctions on Iran, declining US crude inventories, and a more dovish tone from President Trump on the Federal Reserve. Markets also responded positively after Trump softened his stance on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and suggested possible tariff relief for China.Investors anticipate the Bank of Canada (BoC) will maintain a neutral stance on its monetary policy outlook. The central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% last week. Attention now turns to Canada’s February Retail Sales data, scheduled for release on Friday, which could offer further insight into the economic outlook. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower against its American counterpart for the second successive day on Wednesday and retreats further from a multi-month peak touched the previous day.

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Hopes for a US-Japan trade deal and rising bets for more BoJ rate hikes in 2025 continue to underpin the JPY.A positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment might cap any meaningful gains for the safe-haven JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower against its American counterpart for the second successive day on Wednesday and retreats further from a multi-month peak touched the previous day. Upbeat comments from Trump administration officials about US-China trade talks trigger a sharp recovery in the global risk sentiment, which, in turn, weighs heavily on traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Moreover, some follow-through US Dollar (USD) recovery from a multi-year low, bolstered by easing fears about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence, pushed the USD/JPY pair to a one-week high – a level beyond the 143.00 mark during the Asian session.The growing optimism that the US and Japan are moving closer to an interim arrangement on trade helps the JPY, which reacted little to rather unimpressive domestic PMIs, in stalling the intraday slide. Adding to this, firming expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates in 2025 hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. Meanwhile, investors have been losing confidence in the US economy on the back of Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies. This, along with bets that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon, caps the Greenback and drags the USD/JPY pair below the 142.00 mark in the last hour.Japanese Yen bulls turn cautious amid receding safe-haven demand; downside seems cushionedThe global risk sentiment gets a strong boost after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a private investor summit that the tit-for-tat tariff war between the US and China would de-escalate soon. Later, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the Trump administration is setting the stage for a deal. This, in turn, contributes to improving investors' appetite for riskier assets and driving flows away from perceived safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump ruled out the possibility of taking the unprecedented step of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the expiry of his term in May 2026. This, in turn, triggers a goodish US Dollar recovery from a three-year low, which assists the USD/JPY pair to attract some follow-through buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday. The USD move up, however, runs out of steam amid the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points in June and deliver at least three rate cuts by the end of this year. This marks a big divergence in comparison to a rising consensus that the Bank of Japan will continue hiking interest rates in 2025. Apart from this, the hope that Japan might strike a trade deal with the US helps limit the JPY losses and prompt some intraday selling around the USD/JPY pair. In fact, the new US ambassador to Japan said last Friday that he is optimistic about a deal in the ongoing US-Japan tariff negotiations. However, Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa said that any agreement would likely take some time as it's difficult to say how long it will take to bridge the gap between the two sides. This might keep a lid on any optimism in the market and warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets around the USD/JPY pair.Meanwhile, the preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released earlier this Wednesday showed that Japanese manufacturing activity has shrunk for the tenth consecutive month in April. The au Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI came in at 48.5 in April, slightly higher compared to 48.4 in the previous month. In contrast, Japanese services activity rebounded and the au Jibun Bank Services PMI rose to 52.2 during the reported month compared to a neutral reading of 50.0 in March.Wednesday's economic docket also features the release of flash global PMIs, which might provide a fresh insight into the global economic health. Apart from this, trade-related developments would play a key role in influencing the broader market risk sentiment and driving demand for the safe-haven JPY. USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above the 143.00 mark or the 23.6% Fibo. level
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair showed some resilience below the 140.00 psychological mark on Tuesday and the subsequent short-covering rally warrants some caution for bearish traders. The recovery momentum, however, struggles to find acceptance above the 143.00 mark or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall. This, in turn, should now act as a key pivotal point, above which spot prices might aim to surpass the Asian session peak, around the 143.20 area, and climb further towards reclaiming the 144.00 mark. The momentum could extend further towards the 144.25-144.30 region or the 38.2% Fibo. level.On the flip side, weakness below the 141.45 zone, or the Asian session low, now seems to find decent support near the 141.00 mark. A convincing break below the latter, however, will suggest that the recent downtrend is still far from being over and make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to retesting sub-140.00 levels, with some intermediate support near the 140.45 region. The subsequent downfall would expose the 2024 swing low, around the 139.60-139.55 area. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.5980 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has risen to its highest level since early November 2024 against the US Dollar (USD) after the optimistic comments from the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has risen to its highest level since early November 2024 against the US Dollar (USD) after the optimistic comments from the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Traders will take more cues from the flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs for April, which will be published later on Wednesday. Bessent said on Tuesday that the ongoing tariffs showdown against China is unsustainable, and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies in the near future. The easing fears of US-China trade tensions fuel optimism in markets and provide some support to the China-proxy Kiwi as China is New Zealand's largest trading partner.US Treasury Secretary also cautioned that talks between the US and China had yet to formally start. Trump imposed the import tax of 145% on China, which has countered with 125% tariffs on US goods. The concerns over slower US economic growth and higher inflationary pressures could undermine the USD and create a tailwind for NZD/USD. On the other hand, money markets have fully priced in a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) at the May meeting despite the surge in inflation. The RBNZ cut rates by a quarter-point earlier this month, lowering its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.5%, the lowest level since October 2022. The New Zealand central bank is expected to remain aggressive and continue cutting rates in order to boost the New Zealand economy. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the NZD in the near term.  New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered some ground on Wednesday, retracing its losses from the previous session.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar retraces its losses registered in the previous session.Australia's Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index indicated that private sector activity grew for the seventh straight month in April.President Trump reassured investors that he has no intention of removing Fed’s Powell, helping ease concerns about central bank independence.The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered some ground on Wednesday, retracing its losses from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair stabilized following the release of preliminary data from Australia's Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which showed that private sector activity expanded for the seventh consecutive month in April, driven by continued growth in both manufacturing and services output.The Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI edged down to a two-month low of 51.7 in April, compared to 52.1 in March. While manufacturing output remained in expansion territory, the increase in new orders was modest. Meanwhile, the Services PMI dipped slightly to 51.4 from 51.6 in the previous month, and the Composite PMI also eased to 51.4 from 51.6.The AUD/USD pair came under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened, supported by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who described the ongoing tariff standoff as “unsustainable,” suggesting a potential move toward de-escalation. Market sentiment was further boosted by US President Donald Trump, who reassured investors that he has no intention of removing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, helping ease concerns about central bank independence and policy direction.Australian Dollar advances as Trump says that tariffs on Chinese goods wouldn’t be highPresident Trump also expressed optimism about ongoing trade negotiations with China, stating that discussions were progressing well. Trump added that while tariffs on Chinese goods wouldn’t be as high as 145%, they also wouldn’t be eliminated entirely.The White House announced on Tuesday that the Trump administration is making headway in negotiating trade deals aimed at easing the broad tariffs introduced earlier this month. According to US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, 18 countries have already submitted trade proposals to the US, and President Trump’s trade team is scheduled to meet with representatives from 34 nations this week to explore potential agreements.Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler stated on Tuesday that the unexpectedly large US import tariffs are likely to push prices higher. As reported by Reuters, Kugler emphasized that the Federal Reserve should maintain current short-term interest rates until inflationary pressures begin to ease.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, down from 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% annually, compared to 3.1% previously and missing the 3.0% estimate. On a monthly basis, headline CPI dipped by 0.1%, while core CPI edged up by 0.1%.Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) March 31–April 1 Meeting Minutes indicated ongoing uncertainty around the timing of the next interest rate adjustment. Although the Board considered the May meeting a suitable point to review monetary policy, it stressed that no decisions had been made in advance. The Board also pointed to both upside and downside risks facing Australia's economy and inflation trajectory.China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the pace seen in Q4 2024 and surpassing market expectations of 5.1%. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose by 1.2% in Q1, following a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter, falling short of the forecasted 1.4% gain.Australian Dollar hovers around 0.6400, nine-day EMA acts as immediate supportThe AUD/USD pair is hovering near 0.6390 on Wednesday, with daily chart technicals signaling a bullish bias. The pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the 50 mark—both indicators pointing to continued upward momentum.On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the recent four-month high of 0.6439, reached on April 22. A clear break above this level could open the door for a rally toward the five-month high of 0.6515.To the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA near 0.6350, followed by stronger support around the 50-day EMA at 0.6295. A sustained move below these levels could invalidate the current bullish outlook and expose the pair to deeper losses, potentially targeting the March 2020 low near 0.5914.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.24% 0.19% 0.36% 0.11% -0.57% -0.26% 0.45% EUR -0.24% -0.07% 0.10% -0.14% -0.78% -0.51% 0.21% GBP -0.19% 0.07% 0.17% -0.08% -0.70% -0.45% 0.29% JPY -0.36% -0.10% -0.17% -0.26% -0.83% -0.65% 0.12% CAD -0.11% 0.14% 0.08% 0.26% -0.57% -0.35% 0.37% AUD 0.57% 0.78% 0.70% 0.83% 0.57% 0.27% 1.02% NZD 0.26% 0.51% 0.45% 0.65% 0.35% -0.27% 0.74% CHF -0.45% -0.21% -0.29% -0.12% -0.37% -1.02% -0.74% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Judo Bank and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Tue Apr 22, 2025 23:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.7 Consensus: - Previous: 52.1 Source: S&P Global

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2116 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2074.

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European Central Bank member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump’s trade tirades dampen economic growth, including for the US, and threaten to undermine financial stability, per Bloomberg. 

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Trump’s attack on trade to dampen economic growth, including for the US, and threatens to undermine financial stability.

Villeroy called for de-escalation to avoid a spiral of rising tariffs.

It’s more crucial than ever, across the Atlantic, to tell the truth, to fully assess the damage of a trade war, and to open the way for a possible positive dialog.Market reaction At the time of press, the EUR/USD pair was down 0.30% on the day at 1.0386.  ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 48.4 to 48.5 in April

The GBP/USD pair remains weak near 1.3280 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hint at a thaw in US-China trade tensions, fueling optimism in markets and strengthening the US Dollar (USD) against the Pound Sterling (GBP). 

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Comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hint at a thaw in US-China trade tensions, fueling optimism in markets and strengthening the US Dollar (USD) against the Pound Sterling (GBP). Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that he expects a de-escalation in US President Donald Trump’s trade war with China in the very near future. He further stated that the tariff standoff with China cannot be sustained by both sides and that the world’s two largest economies will have to find ways to de-escalate.Additionally, Trump on Tuesday appeared to take threats to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell off the table after days of intensifying criticisms of the Chairman over not cutting interest rates. The optimism and de-escalation of the trade war provide some support to the Greenback.Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-UK trade talks. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the Trump administration is preparing its terms for trade talks with the UK, aiming for London to reduce levies and other non-tariff barriers on a wide range of US goods.The US will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, according to people with knowledge of a draft document the Trump administration circulated to stakeholders this week outlining goals for trade negotiation with the UK. However, any signs of uncertainty in trade policy could undermine the US and create a tailwind for the major pair.  Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The United States is preparing its terms for trade talks with the United Kingdom, according to people familiar with the plans, aiming for London to reduce levies and other non-tariff barriers on a wide range of US goods.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The United States is preparing its terms for trade talks with the United Kingdom, according to people familiar with the plans, aiming for London to reduce levies and other non-tariff barriers on a wide range of US goods.The US President Donald Trump administration will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, according to people with knowledge of a draft document the Trump administration circulated to stakeholders this week outlining goals for trade talks with the U.K.Additionally, Washington will also push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US, including beef, and revise rules of origin for goods from each nation.Market reactionAt the press time, the GBP/USD pair was down 0.44% on the day to trade at 1.3270. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.1355 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, pressured by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand.

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The Greenback recovers after US President Donald Trump said he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell despite his frustration with the central bank not moving more quickly to slash interest rates.The White House said on Tuesday that the Trump administration was making progress on negotiations of trade deals aimed at reducing the sweeping tariffs he announced earlier this month. US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that 18 different countries have presented trade offers to the US and that Trump's trade team was meeting with 34 countries this week to discuss potential agreements. The positive developments surrounding US trade talks with trading partners lift the USD and act as a headwind for the major pair. Additionally, the hawkish comments from the Fed officials contribute to the Greenback’s upside. Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler said late Tuesday that with US import tariffs significantly larger than expected and likely to put upward pressure on prices, the US central bank ought to keep short-term borrowing costs steady until inflation risks recede.Across the pond, the rising expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) could cut interest rates again in the June policy meeting weighs on the shared currency. Traders are now pricing in nearly a 75% odds of a June rate cut, up from roughly 60% before the ECB's decision, according to LSEG data.Investors will keep an eye on the preliminary reading of the HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Eurozone and Germany for April, which is due later on Wednesday. On the US docket, the flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs for April will be published.  Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

 

 

The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 51.7 in April from 52.1 in March, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Wednesday.

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Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI down to 51.4 in April from previous 51.6

Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 (April) vs previous 52.1

Australia Judo Bank Services PMI declined to 51.4 in April from previous 51.6

Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler said late Tuesday that with US import tariffs significantly larger than expected and likely to put upward pressure on prices, the Fed ought to keep short-term borrowing costs unchanged until inflation risks recede, per Reuters.

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Economic effects of tariffs and uncertainty likely to be larger than anticipated.
Supports holding policy rate steady as long as upside risks to inflation continue, while economic activity and employment remain stable.
Fed policy well-positioned for macroeconomic changes.
If financial markets tighten persistently, it could weigh on future growth.
Especially monitoring upside risks on inflation, downside risks on employment.
Inflation progress has slowed, remains above 2% goal.
Labor market solid, broadly in balance.
Longer-term inflation expectations are largely well-anchored, hopes they remain so.
First-quarter GDP may show moderation vs. 2024, but some front-loading of purchases to avoid tariffs.
Tariffs likely to put upward pressure on prices.Market reaction At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.76% higher on the day to trade at 99.73. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

GBP/JPY trades modestly higher near 189.00 during Tuesday’s session after bouncing from intraday lows around 187.47. The pair’s upside follows a minor recovery in the Pound Sterling, which briefly reached 1.3423 against the US Dollar before retreating amid political and economic crosswinds.

GBP/JPY holds near the 189.00 zone but upside remains limitedMarket sentiment rattled by Fed uncertainty and weak UK inflation outlookTechnical picture tilts bearish with key resistance at 188.93 and 189.72GBP/JPY trades modestly higher near 189.00 during Tuesday’s session after bouncing from intraday lows around 187.47. The pair’s upside follows a minor recovery in the Pound Sterling, which briefly reached 1.3423 against the US Dollar before retreating amid political and economic crosswinds. President Trump’s latest remarks targeting Fed Chair Powell and renewed speculation around the Fed’s independence continue to weigh on risk sentiment and cast a shadow over the broader USD outlook.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen remains well supported by safe-haven flows and expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue tightening policy. This dynamic keeps JPY resilient across G10 crosses. The British Pound, while still outperforming many peers, shows signs of exhaustion following a strong rally, as traders begin to price in possible rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) due to weak inflation and labor market trends.From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY flashes a bearish signal despite today’s modest gains. The pair trades near the top of its daily range (187.47–188.83), but the MACD and Awesome Oscillator both support selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral at 44.74, while moving averages paint a clearly bearish backdrop. The 20-day (190.32), 100-day (192.15), and 200-day (192.84) Simple Moving Averages all slope lower, joined by bearish confirmation from the 10-day EMA (188.94) and 30-day EMA (190.25). Resistance is found at 188.81, 188.94, and 189.73, while support lies at 188.57.The overall trend leans negative unless a sustained break above 189.70 materializes. For now, GBP/JPY remains vulnerable to deeper pullbacks amid political risk and technical headwinds.
GBP/JPY Daily chart

Recently, US President Donald Trump said at a press conference that his discussions with China are going well, adding that he thinks they will reach a deal. He said that tariffs on China would not be as high as 145%, but they wouldn’t be zero.

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The EURJPY pair is currently neutral, trading near the 162.00 zone after easing slightly on Tuesday. The pair remains confined within a narrow range between 160.98 and 162.32, showing no clear directional bias as Asian markets approach.

EUR/JPY trades near the 162.00 zone, slightly lower ahead of the Asian session.Mixed signals from indicators, with MACD flashing a sell and most others remaining neutral.Support seen at 161.72, 161.71, and 161.66, while resistance stands at 161.79, 161.86, and 161.87.The EURJPY pair is currently neutral, trading near the 162.00 zone after easing slightly on Tuesday. The pair remains confined within a narrow range between 160.98 and 162.32, showing no clear directional bias as Asian markets approach.Momentum indicators reflect the indecision in price action. The Relative Strength Index holds steady in neutral territory near 51, while the MACD suggests a slight bearish tilt. Other short-term signals, such as the Stochastic RSI Fast and the Average Directional Index, are also neutral, further reinforcing the lack of strong trend conviction.On the moving averages front, the 20-day SMA points to a short-term bearish trend, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs suggest a longer-term bullish outlook. The Ichimoku Base Line remains neutral, in line with the broader sideways structure seen in recent sessions.Key support levels are located at 161.72, 161.71, and 161.66, while resistance lies overhead at 161.79, 161.86, and 161.87. The pair will likely require a decisive break beyond this range to establish clearer momentum in either direction.Daily chart

The USD/CHF makes a U-turn and trade with gains of over 1% on Tuesday as market mood improved on trade headlines and a possible de-escalation of US-Sino conflict tensions. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8181 after hitting a daily low of 0.8065.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CHF rebounds from 0.8065 as Bessent and White House signal progress in China, Japan, and India trade talks.Market sentiment improves sharply, but Trump’s attacks on Powell continue to cloud Fed’s credibility.Technicals show 0.8200 as key level; break higher may target 0.8267 and 0.8400, while failure risks drop to 0.8038 or lower.The USD/CHF makes a U-turn and trade with gains of over 1% on Tuesday as market mood improved on trade headlines and a possible de-escalation of US-Sino conflict tensions. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8181 after hitting a daily low of 0.8065.USD/CHF rallies to 0.8181 on China de-escalation hopes; Fed independence concerns still threaten upside momentumThe White House revealed that progress is being made on trade deals, with Karoline Leavitt saying the “ball is moving int the right direction with China.” Meanwhile, Politico revealed that the WH is nearing agreements with Japan and India.The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he saw a de-escalation with China during a closed-door meeting in Washington, according to Bloomberg. Against this backdrop, Wall Street rallied sharply, the USD/CHF erased Monday’s losses, and closed near the week’s high of 0.8190.Nevertheless, the USD/CHF bulls are not out of the woods following US President Trump’s recent attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. An escalation of the rhetoric would put the Fed’s independence into question, spurring flows out of the Greenback’s safe-haven status.USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe USD/CHF downtrend remains intact, but buyers driving the exchange rate near 0.8200, could exacerbate a rally towards April’s 14 peak of 0.8267. A breach of those levels will expose 0.8300, followed by a move to the 0.8400 figureConversely, if USD/CHF closes below 0.8200, look for a test of the 0.8100 ahead of the April 21 low of 0.8038. If surpassed, the pair could reach the 0.79 handle for the first time since September 2011.Conversely, buyers need to reclaim the April 21 peak of 0.8163 so they can challenge the next resistance level, the April 14 swing high of 0.8267. Swiss Franc PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.17% -0.29% -0.21% -0.24% 0.11% -0.67% 0.28% EUR 0.17% -0.28% -0.03% -0.11% 0.09% -0.54% 0.42% GBP 0.29% 0.28% 0.40% 0.19% 0.37% -0.26% 0.71% JPY 0.21% 0.03% -0.40% -0.03% 0.21% -0.36% 0.49% CAD 0.24% 0.11% -0.19% 0.03% 0.24% -0.44% 0.53% AUD -0.11% -0.09% -0.37% -0.21% -0.24% -0.61% 0.34% NZD 0.67% 0.54% 0.26% 0.36% 0.44% 0.61% 0.99% CHF -0.28% -0.42% -0.71% -0.49% -0.53% -0.34% -0.99% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

The AUDJPY pair is flashing an overall bearish signal, currently trading around 90.10 after a modest dip during Tuesday’s session. The cross remains mid-range between the day’s low of 89.64 and high of 90.58, suggesting hesitation in either direction as markets await fresh momentum into Asia.

AUD/JPY trades near the 90.10 area after easing modestly ahead of the Asian session.Momentum indicators are mixed, but moving averages continue to align with bearish pressure.Resistance is seen at 90.49, 90.50, and 90.57, while downside risk builds below the 90.00 handle.The AUDJPY pair is flashing an overall bearish signal, currently trading around 90.10 after a modest dip during Tuesday’s session. The cross remains mid-range between the day’s low of 89.64 and high of 90.58, suggesting hesitation in either direction as markets await fresh momentum into Asia.From a technical perspective, short-term indicators show a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds neutral near the 42 level, while the MACD is beginning to flash a buy signal. Complementing the indecisiveness, both the Stochastic %K and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) remain in neutral territory, suggesting consolidation rather than trend continuation in the near term.Despite the muted momentum, broader trend signals continue to lean bearish. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), all located above 91.00, confirm prevailing downside bias. The 10-day EMA and SMA, sitting just above the current price at 90.57 and 90.50 respectively, add immediate resistance.Traders may look to resistance levels at 90.49, 90.50, and 90.57 should any bullish correction emerge. However, the overall tone remains cautious, with sellers likely to retain control if the pair remains capped below the 91.00 region.
AUD/JPY daily chart

South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index: 93.8 (April) vs 93.4

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การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)