Forex News Timeline
23:22 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Slides below 0.82, reachis mul-week low as USD appreciates
USD/CHF extended its losses during Monday’s North American session, down 0.60% as the Greenback weakened across the board.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CHF drops to 0.8155 amid renewed “Sell America” sentiment across global marketsRSI confirms bearish momentum; next targets are YTD low at 0.8083 and psychological support at 0.8000Recovery needs break above 0.8200, with resistance at 0.8300 and last week’s high at 0.8346USD/CHF extended its losses during Monday’s North American session, down 0.60% as the Greenback weakened across the board. An earlier risk-off impulse, which surprisingly shifted positively, weighs on the US Dollar, which did not capitalize on its status as the “sell America” trade continues to gain steam in the financial markets. The pair trades below 0.8200 after hitting a six-week low of 0.8155.USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookSince hitting a weekly high of 0.8346, the USD/CHF has plummeted sharply due to overall weakness in the US Dollar. Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are gathering momentum. This means the major could retest the year-to-date (YTD) lows hit on April 21, a swing low of 0.8083. If that level is surpassed, the next stop would be the 0.8000 figure.Conversely, if USD/CHF drops below 0.8100, the next support would be the abovementioned YTD low of 0.8083sd and the 0.8000 figure.USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily Swiss Franc PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.85% -0.62% -0.81% -0.27% -0.97% -1.32% -0.78% EUR 0.85% 0.22% 0.05% 0.57% -0.12% -0.51% 0.06% GBP 0.62% -0.22% -0.15% 0.36% -0.34% -0.74% -0.16% JPY 0.81% -0.05% 0.15% 0.54% -0.17% -0.53% -0.07% CAD 0.27% -0.57% -0.36% -0.54% -0.70% -1.08% -0.51% AUD 0.97% 0.12% 0.34% 0.17% 0.70% -0.33% 0.28% NZD 1.32% 0.51% 0.74% 0.53% 1.08% 0.33% 0.57% CHF 0.78% -0.06% 0.16% 0.07% 0.51% -0.28% -0.57% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
22:34 Trump administration sets Wednesday deadline for trade offers from other countries
The Trump administration is reportedly working on delivering a final trade offer deadline set for this Wednesday.
The Trump administration is reportedly working on delivering a final trade offer deadline set for this Wednesday. According to reporting by Reuters, a draft letter to various US trading partners is setting an impossibly-close deadline to try and strongarm trade talk acceleration as the US struggles to unveil major trade deals the administration insists are forthcoming.Trump team pushes for deal offers to avert its own tariffsTime is running out for the Trump team to secure, finalize, and announce trade deals with other countries that support Donald Trump's "America First" campaign pledges. The White House temporarily suspended Trump's "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariff package for 90 days, and it is set to come into full effect in just a few weeks on July 8.So far, the only country that has come close to reaching a trade agreement with the US is the United Kingdom, which itself contains little in the way of actual trade deal specifics and largely represents an agreement to continue negotiating in a manner that will please President Trump.The Trump administration is undoubtedly in a rush to secure some form of announceable trade concession from a major trading partner: Trump's tariffs are on litigation life support, having been granted a brief stay as the US federal appeals court weighs the validity of the lawsuit brought against Trump regarding his tariffs. If the trade court's initial findings that Trump abused the IEEPA legal framework to impose trade tariffs unconstitutionally, it could bring about the end of Trump's ability to impose tariffs that have a global market-shattering impact.
22:26 BoE’s Mann: Impact of QT is a more salient issue now BoE is cutting rates.
Bank of England’s MPC (hawk) member Catherine Mann said that the bank should closely monitor the effects of its quantitative tightening (QT) programme on monetary and financial conditions, especially in light of the recent interest rate cuts.
Bank of England’s MPC (hawk) member Catherine Mann said that the bank should closely monitor the effects of its quantitative tightening (QT) programme on monetary and financial conditions, especially in light of the recent interest rate cuts.Key QuotesBE cannot exactly offset high long-term rates caused by QT by cutting Bank Rate more.Extra cuts to short rates to compensate for QT could run counter to the need to purge structural rigidities in UK labour and product markets.I expect these issues will be part of MPC considerations before the September QT decision.Impact of QT is a more salient issue now that the BoE is cutting rates.
22:24 GBP/USD steadies near 1.3540 as the US Dollar struggles under global pressure
The British Pound (GBP) bounces back at the start of the week, advancing against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday and trimming last week’s losses. The GBP/USD pair is rebounding modestly as investors pare back US Dollar holdings amid lingering uncertainty over the global economic outlook.
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The GBP/USD pair is rebounding modestly as investors pare back US Dollar holdings amid lingering uncertainty over the global economic outlook.At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.3540, easing from the intraday high of 1.3559. The pair experienced a sharp rally earlier in the day but struggled to maintain gains as buying interest waned amid a cautious market tone.The US Dollar came under renewed pressure after President Trump announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, a move that reignited global trade tensions. Meanwhile, China pushed back against the latest trade accusations, adding to investor caution and dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) back toward last week’s low, last seen trading around 98.80.On the data front, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 48.5 in May from 48.7 in April, marking the sharpest contraction since November 2024 and underlining persistent softness in the sector. In the UK, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 46.4 in May, up from the preliminary estimate of 45.1 and improving April’s reading, signaling that conditions remain weak but stable in the industrial sector.Adding to the policy narrative, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann said the central bank should pay closer attention to the impact of its quantitative tightening (QT) program on financial conditions, especially now that it has begun cutting interest rates. In remarks published by Reuters on Monday, Mann emphasized that “now that the MPC is reducing restrictiveness, we need to consider the differing effects of our policies on different parts of the yield curve and their effects on monetary policy transmission as a more salient issue.”Looking ahead, with risk sentiment still fragile, market participants will closely monitor upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials this week for fresh insight into the Fed rate path. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell refrained from addressing monetary policy directly in his Monday remarks, traders expect further guidance from policymakers ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.In the UK, focus shifts to the Services PMI later this week, a key gauge of the economy’s largest sector. Meanwhile, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and other Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members will appear before Parliament on Tuesday for the Monetary Policy Report Hearings, providing further context on the May rate cut and the BoE’s evolving policy stance. BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
22:21 Fed’s Goolsbee: Rates can come down over 12-18 months
On Monday, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, expressed his belief that the Fed would eventually lower short-term rates once the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is resolved.
On Monday, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, expressed his belief that the Fed would eventually lower short-term rates once the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is resolved.Key QuotesSo far we've had excellent inflation reports and, surprisingly, little direct impact of tariffs.Don't know if that will remain true in the next 1-2 months.Still think underneath all the tariff 'dirt in the air', rates can come down over 12-18 months.Still think if we can get past this bumpy period, the dual mandate looks pretty good.A little gun-shy about arguing that tariffs will have a transitory effect on inflation.Recent PCE inflation print may have been the 'last vestige' of the pre-tariff impact.
22:09 Forex Today: Focus remains on US jobs data and EMU flash CPI
The US Dollar (USD) faced increasing selling pressure in quite a negative start to the new trading week, slipping back to multi-week troughs amid the resurgence of trade concerns and jitters over the health of the US economy.
The US Dollar (USD) faced increasing selling pressure in quite a negative start to the new trading week, slipping back to multi-week troughs amid the resurgence of trade concerns and jitters over the health of the US economy.Here's what to watch on Tuesday, June 3: The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated to the sub-99.00 region to reach new seven-week lows amid marginal gains in US yields across the curve and despite fresh risk aversion. The JOLTs Job Openings will be released seconded by Factory Orders. In addition, the Fed’s Logan and Goolsbee are due to speak.EUR/USD reclaimed once again the 1.1400 barrier and well beyond in response to the intense sell-off in the US Dollar. The preliminary Inflation Rate in the euro area will take centre stage on the domestic calendar followed by the Unemployment Rate in the whole bloc.GBP/USD rose to four-day highs, revisiting the 1.3560 zone following heightened weakness around the Greenback. In the UK, the final S&P Global Services PMI is due on June 4.Further appreciation of the Japanese Yen prompted USD/JPY to recede to multi-day lows and retest the mid-142.00s area on Monday. Next on tap in Japan will be the final Jibun Bank Services PMIs on June 4.AUD/USD rebounded sharply and came just pips short of the key barrier at 0.6500 the figure, hitting fresh five-day highs. The RBA will publish its Minutes from its May gathering, along with Business Inventories and Q1 Current Account results.WTI prices jumped to fresh two-week highs near the $64.00 mark following news that the OPEC+ kept output hikes unchanged, rising its production by the expected 411 kbpd in July.Geopolitics and trade uncertainty lent extra wings to Gold, sending the precious metal to new four-week peaks near $3,380 mark per troy ounce. Silver prices rallied well north of the $34.00 mark per ounce for the first time since October 2024.
22:01 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges over 5%, hits yearly high
Silver prices soar, gaining over 5% on Monday, as investors who had become risk-averse earlier pushed the grey metal higher. However, as market sentiment improved, buyers continued to drive XAG/USD higher, trading at $34.65 near year-to-date (YTD) highs.
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However, as market sentiment improved, buyers continued to drive XAG/USD higher, trading at $34.65 near year-to-date (YTD) highs.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver prices are poised to remain bullish and extend their gains to challenge the 2023 peak of $34.86. Bulls remain in charge, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), taking a steeper rise.With that said, the next resistance for XAG/USD would be last year’s peak. A breach of the latter will expose the $35.00 level, followed by the February 29, 2012 high of $37.49. Conversely, if XAG/USD drops below the March 28 peak of $34.58, a decline towards $34.00 is likely. In the event of further weakness, the next support level would be the May 22 peak, which has since turned into support at $33.69.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
21:40 EUR/USD reaches six-week high near 1.1450 as US Dollar slides on trade jitters
EUR/USD edges up during the North American session to hit a six-week high of 1.1449, poised to stay above 1.1400 as the US Dollar drops to levels last seen in April as the “Sell America” trade continues.
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Arising trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, as well as the Eurozone (EU), prompted investors to favor the Greenback with the Euro posting gains of over 0.68%.Recently, economic data in the US revealed that business activities in the manufacturing sector remained in contractionary territory, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).Last week, US President Donald Trump revealed that China had violated its agreement with Switzerland. Consequently, he threatens to impose 50% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, effective on June 4, sparking a flight to safe-haven assets, except the US Dollar.Beijing responded to Washington’s accusations as “groundless and threatened to respond with forceful measures.”In other trade news, EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic is to meet USTR Greer in Paris on Wednesday, according to a spokesperson.The EU’s economic schedule featured the release of the HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May, with most readings coming mixed, with only Spain showing signs of expansion.EUR/USD daily market movers: Euro extended rally past 1.1400, eyes on 1.1450ISM Manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.5 in May from 48.7, marking the lowest reading since November. The Prices Index remained in expansion at 69.4%, while the Employment Index continued in contraction, improving slightly from 46.5 to 46.8.S&P Global Manufacturing PMI stayed in expansion but slipped to 52.0 from 52.3 in April.Fed Governor Christopher Waller has shifted to a more dovish stance. He stated that rate cuts remain possible later this year but warned that policymakers are mainly focused on controlling inflation.Eurozone May’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI remained in recessionary territory, down at 49.4, though it’s the fifth straight monthly gain and the highest in almost three years. Germany’s Manufacturing PMI revised down to 48.3 from 48.8, underscoring continued weakness in the region’s largest economy.EUR/USD traders would have to digest a busy economic schedule in the upcoming week. In the EU, the docket will feature inflation figures, the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, and ECB’s President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. In the US, investors are eyeing the release of Nonfarm Payroll figures, the ISM Services PMI, and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) speakers.Financial market players had fully priced in the expectation that the ECB would reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2% at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD surpasses key resistance levels, buyers target 1.1500EUR/USD uptrend remains intact, as indicated by the daily chart; however, the trend appears overextended unless buyers reclaim higher prices. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, indicating that buyers are in control. However, the ECB’s looming monetary policy decision, with expectations for a rate cut, could pave the way for a retracement.If EUR/USD climbs past 1.1450, this could open the door to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) peak hit on April 21 at 1.1573. Instead, if the shared currency weakens and falls below 1.1400, the first support would be 1.1350. A breach of it, will expose 1.13 and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1277. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
21:34 USD/JPY weakens as investors seek refuge in the Yen amid weak US PMI data
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining strength against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as investors seek refuge in the Yen’s safe-haven appeal.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}US May’s ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to a fresh six-month low.USD/JPY extends losses on rising demand for the safe-haven Yen.The US Dollar falls against its major counterparts with Trump tariffs back in focus.The Japanese Yen benefits from its safe-haven appeal, with the USD/JPY pair trading below 143.00 at the time of writing.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining strength against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as investors seek refuge in the Yen’s safe-haven appeal.With renewed concerns surrounding US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies triggering a wave of market caution, USD/JPY has extended losses, trading below 143.00 at the time of writing.Trump tariffs weigh on US Dollar, tumbles to six-week low per DXYOne of the key factors driving the current weakness in the US Dollar is the growing anxiety surrounding the impact of President Trump's trade policies. The US has recently threatened to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, sparking fears of an escalating trade war. These moves are raising concerns among investors that the global economy could face slower growth, particularly as inflationary pressures from higher import costs could ripple through the economy.Still in the United States, May’s ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 48.5, missing forecasts of a modest uptick to 49.5 and reaching a six-month low.Trump’s tariffs, coupled with the ongoing trade standoff with China and other major economies, have the potential to hinder US economic growth. If tariffs continue to rise, businesses may face higher input costs, potentially leading to reduced corporate profit margins and lower consumer spending. In contrast, the Japanese Yen is gaining ground. The Yen is considered a safe-haven currency, meaning that in times of global uncertainty, investors tend to move their assets into the Yen. Its safe-haven appeal has been particularly evident in the wake of the increasing US tariff threats and the uncertainty surrounding global trade.As markets continue to digest the implications of Trump's tariff policies, the Yen has appreciated against the USD, with the USD/JPY currency pair dropping to key support levels. Japan's relatively stable economic and political environment, coupled with its strong industrial base and low inflation, continues to make the Yen an attractive alternative to riskier currencies during turbulent times.Market participants are closely monitoring developments in US trade policy, as any new announcements regarding tariffs could trigger further volatility in the USD/JPY pair. The upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz, expected to take place this week, could also add fuel to the ongoing uncertainty and influence the direction of the Dollar. Japanese Yen PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.70% -0.47% -0.67% -0.17% -0.79% -1.05% -0.68% EUR 0.70% 0.23% 0.05% 0.52% -0.08% -0.38% 0.01% GBP 0.47% -0.23% -0.15% 0.29% -0.31% -0.61% -0.22% JPY 0.67% -0.05% 0.15% 0.50% -0.13% -0.40% -0.11% CAD 0.17% -0.52% -0.29% -0.50% -0.61% -0.89% -0.51% AUD 0.79% 0.08% 0.31% 0.13% 0.61% -0.24% 0.17% NZD 1.05% 0.38% 0.61% 0.40% 0.89% 0.24% 0.39% CHF 0.68% -0.01% 0.22% 0.11% 0.51% -0.17% -0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
21:09 Dow Jones Industrial Average struggles under the weight of fresh trade concerns
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) remains trapped in near-term congestion as trade woes weigh on investors and the new trading month kicks off on a cautious note.
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United States (US) President Donald Trump promised/threatened a doubling of steel tariffs to 50% while attending a steelworkers’ union rally late last week. US-China trade tensions are also escalating as both sides lob accusations of early trade agreement violations.Plaintiffs filed a motion on Monday in the US Court of International Trade (USCIT) to halt Donald Trump’s pre-existing tariffs, which were ruled as an overreach of presidential powers after the USCIT determined that the White House had misinterpreted the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The federal appeals circuit granted a stay of the tariffs while the appellate process grinds away, which could take months. According to fresh filings from the USCIT, allowing the tariffs to remain in place during the appeals process effectively rules in favor of the Trump administration without issuing a formal ruling.Trade concerns, tariff fears rule the roost to kick off June tradingDonald Trump triumphantly announced a doubling of tariffs on all steel imports into the US last Friday. Speaking before the national assembly of the United Auto Workers union, President Trump announced that he intends to double steel import taxes to 50%, a move that would likely result in US consumers paying even more for steel products. US domestic prices for steel products are already some of the highest in the world, and prices could rise even further. Speaking to reporters at CNBC, Josh Spoores, Head of Steel Americas Analysis at CRU, noted that raising steel tariffs would make selling steel to the US even more attractive to foreign companies, as the US functionally forces itself to pay higher prices:“Already steel prices in the U.S. are higher than anywhere else, and it is a net importer which needs to have volumes coming in. All this does is raise prices there… automotives, construction products and appliances are all products that are going to feel the impact.”President Trump lobbed social media attack posts at China last week, expressing apparent frustration at China’s slow pace of easing rare earths export restrictions. China responded by categorically rejecting Trump’s claims, noting that it is moving at an already agreed-upon pace on trade terms loosely negotiated in Switzerland several weeks ago. China also fired back its own claims of trade deal violations by the Trump administration. According to a Chinese spokesperson, the White House’s recently announced plans to further curb tech exports to China and revoke student visas for Chinese students “unilaterally provoke new economic and trade frictions.”Further caution warranted according to PMI survey resultsBusiness confidence may be getting hit harder by constantly changing tariff policies than market experts initially expected. May’s ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) backslid to a fresh six-month low on Monday, falling to 48.5 when median market forecasts were expecting a modest uptick to 49.5. US manufacturing activity is expected to contract in May, with demand, output, and inputs all expected to weaken.Dow Jones price forecastOngoing trade headlines, tariff headaches, and apprehension about economic activity within the US economy have all weighed on equities. Major equity indexes plummeted earlier in the year due to Trump's tariffs, sending the Dow Jones to the 37,000 region. The technical recovery from April’s lows successfully pushed bids back onto the bullish side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,600, but momentum appears to have evaporated for the time being.The Dow Jones has entered a middling consolidation phase between 41,000 and 43,000. Price action is geared to continue grinding sideways until material changes to the US’s trade stance or economic data push investors firmly into one side or the other.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
20:09 WTI Price Forecast: Oil prices climb on weaker USD, geopolitical tension, WTI stalls near key resistance
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil edges higher on Monday, kicking off the week on a firmer footing as a weaker US Dollar (USD) and persistent geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to underpin market sentiment.
Crude oil rises over 2.5% on Monday, trading near $62.60 after an early session jump to $63.25.WTI hovers below the 50-day EMA at $62.70, which has capped upside since mid-May.Technical indicators hint at improving momentum, but confirmation is needed for a bullish breakout.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil edges higher on Monday, kicking off the week on a firmer footing as a weaker US Dollar (USD) and persistent geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to underpin market sentiment.At the time of writing, WTI is trading near $62.60, up over 2.5% on the day, after rising as much as 4% during the early part of Monday’s session. Despite the strong intraday rally, prices remain capped just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $62.70 — a key resistance zone that has limited upside attempts since mid-May.The latest boost in prices comes even as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, confirmed on Saturday a 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) production increase for July, marking the third consecutive monthly hike of that size. The move had been widely anticipated by markets, with traders noting the increase was already priced in.According to a Reuters report, sources close to the group’s discussions said a larger hike had been considered. “Had they gone through with a surprise larger amount, then Monday’s price open would have been pretty ugly indeed,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, analyst at Onyx Capital Group.From a technical standpoint, WTI is showing early signs of bullish momentum, but a decisive breakout has yet to materialize. It is attempting to break out of a consolidation range that has capped price action since mid-May. After multiple failed attempts to breach the $60 psychological support level, prices have rebounded sharply, with bulls now testing the upper boundary near $62.70. The short-term structure is leaning positive, though a clear break above the 50-day EMA remains crucial for further upside traction.At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $62.50, hovering just below the 50-day EMA. A daily close above this level would likely open the door for a continuation toward the next key resistance around $65.50 — a level that capped gains since mid-April. On the other hand, rejection from current levels could invite renewed selling pressure, especially if macroeconomic sentiment turns risk-averse. A rejection at the 50-day EMA could trigger profit-taking among short-term traders and reinforce the broader consolidation pattern, dragging prices back toward the $60.00 support zone. A sustained move below that may expose further downside toward $58.00.Momentum indicators are showing signs of recovery, but conviction remains limited. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has edged higher toward the midline, currently sitting near 54.20, suggesting neutral-to-bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flirting with a bullish crossover, although the histogram remains shallow, suggesting a cautious shift in sentiment rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
20:05 EUR/GBP steadies as pair holds above key technical resistance
The Euro (EUR) is consolidating against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on Monday, with markets focusing on key economic data and geopolitical developments.
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The Euro (EUR) is consolidating against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on Monday, with markets focusing on key economic data and geopolitical developments.At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is firmly supported above the key psychological level of 0.8400.In the Eurozone, the manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery on Monday, with the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.4 in May from 49.0 in April, marking a 33-month high. While markets interpreted the data as a potential sign that the sector may be moving out of the previous downturn, it remains below the 50.0 growth threshold, indicating that expansion has not yet been achieved.The UK manufacturing sector continues to face challenges, with the S&P Global UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising slightly to 46.4 in May from 45.4 in April. While this marks the highest reading since February, it remains below the neutral 50.0 threshold, indicating that the contraction is ongoing.Adding to the complexity of the situation, the upcoming meeting between Germany's new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and US President Donald Trump could further influence EUR/GBP sentiment. Discussions on transatlantic relations, trade policies, and the Ukraine conflict may impact market expectations for the Euro’s economic stability and geopolitical alignment. Any shifts in US-European relations could lead to changes in investor perception of the Eurozone’s stability, thus influencing the EUR/GBP pair, especially given the current economic struggles in the UK.EUR/GBP finds support above the 100-day Simple Moving AverageEUR/GBP continues to trade above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8415 and above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-September 2022 move near 0.8428. The 50-day SMA now serves as resistance at 0.8472; a break of this level could open the door for a bullish continuation toward the 0.8500 psychological level.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49, moving closer toward the neutral zone at 50.For bears to regain confidence, a move below the 100-day SMA and 0.8400 could lead to a retest of the May low at 0.8378 and a potential return towards the prior trendline resistance, now support at 0.8350.EUR/GBP daily chart, Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The Euro (EUR) is consolidating against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on Monday, with markets focusing on key economic data and geopolitical developments.At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is firmly supported above the key psychological level of 0.8400.In the Eurozone, the manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery on Monday, with the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.4 in May from 49.0 in April, marking a 33-month high. While markets interpreted the data as a potential sign that the sector may be moving out of the previous downturn, it remains below the 50.0 growth threshold, indicating that expansion has not yet been achieved.The UK manufacturing sector continues to face challenges, with the S&P Global UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising slightly to 46.4 in May from 45.4 in April. While this marks the highest reading since February, it remains below the neutral 50.0 threshold, indicating that the contraction is ongoing.Adding to the complexity of the situation, the upcoming meeting between Germany's new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and US President Donald Trump could further influence EUR/GBP sentiment. Discussions on transatlantic relations, trade policies, and the Ukraine conflict may impact market expectations for the Euro’s economic stability and geopolitical alignment. Any shifts in US-European relations could lead to changes in investor perception of the Eurozone’s stability, thus influencing the EUR/GBP pair, especially given the current economic struggles in the UK.EUR/GBP finds support above the 100-day Simple Moving AverageEUR/GBP continues to trade above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8415 and above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-September 2022 move near 0.8428. The 50-day SMA now serves as resistance at 0.8472; a break of this level could open the door for a bullish continuation toward the 0.8500 psychological level.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49, moving closer toward the neutral zone at 50.For bears to regain confidence, a move below the 100-day SMA and 0.8400 could lead to a retest of the May low at 0.8378 and a potential return towards the prior trendline resistance, now support at 0.8350.EUR/GBP daily chart, Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
19:28 Gold skyrockets to 4-week high amid geopolitical tensions, tariffs fears
Gold prices rallied sharply on Monday, reaching their highest level in over four weeks, as geopolitical risks escalated over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Renewed tensions on trade between the United States (US) and China prompted investors to buy the yellow metal throughout the day.
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Renewed tensions on trade between the United States (US) and China prompted investors to buy the yellow metal throughout the day. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,377, up by 2.70%.Market sentiment shifted sour as news broke that Ukraine staged an aerial attack on Russia, which destroyed long-range bombers and other aircraft. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump doubled down on tariffs over steel and aluminum imports to 50%, effective June 4, and rhetoric against China sent US global equities lower.CNBC reported that Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping could speak this week, but not on Monday.On the data front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May revealed that business activity deteriorated. Nevertheless, there were some improvements in the prices paid sub-component, which fell. Meanwhile, the employment index sub-component improved compared to the previous number, and it was received positively by market participants, who are eyeing Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures.Bullion prices are also up following Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller's slightly dovish approach, saying that rate cuts remain possible later this year. However, he warned that policymakers are mainly focused on controlling inflation.Gold daily market movers: Bullion rallies sharply as Greenback plummetsGold price surges as the US Dollar tanks. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six currencies, tumbles 0.72% at 98.71.US Treasury bond yields are rising, with the US 10-year Treasury note yielding up almost six basis points to 4.458%. US real yields had followed suit and are also surging by six basis points to 2.118%.The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose by 48.5, down from April’s 48.7, hitting its lowest reading since November. The Prices Index remained in expansion territory, registering 69.4 percent, while the Employment Index stood in contractionary territory but improved from 46.5 to 46.8.The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory, yet dipped in May from April’s 52.3 to 52.After the data release, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow preliminary reading of economic growth for Q2 2025 rose sharply from 3.8% to 4.6%.Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 51 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Source: Prime Market TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold surges past $3,350 with bulls targeting $3,400Gold price is bullishly biased as buyers lifted the XAU/USD spot price above $3,370, eyeing a clear break of the $3,400 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are gaining momentum.If Gold climbs above $3,400, the next resistance would be $3,438, the May 7 peak, ahead of the record high of $3,500.For a bearish resumption, Gold must tumble below $3,300, so sellers could drag prices to $3,250. If cleared, the next stop would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,228, followed by the April 3 high turned support at $3,167. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
18:38 USD/CAD under pressure as Canada PMI improves, US data disappoints
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for a third consecutive day on Monday, supported by rising oil prices and sustained weakness in the Greenback.
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On the other side, mixed US manufacturing data weighed on the US Dollar, keeping the USD/CAD pair on the defensive below the 1.3700 mark. At the time of writing, the pair is trading near 1.3698 during the North American session.The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 in May from 45.3 in April, indicating the sector remains in contraction for a fourth consecutive month. Output and new orders continued to fall sharply. Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5 in May from 48.7, falling short of market expectations and marking the sharpest contraction since November 2024. The data highlighted persistent economic uncertainty and sustained cost pressures, partly driven by the US President Donald Trump administration's volatile trade policies.Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. While markets previously leaned toward a rate cut, stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP growth of 2.2% has shifted the consensus toward holding the current 2.75% policy rate. According to Reuters, investors now see around a 75% chance that the BoC will leave rates unchanged.Scotiabank’s Derek Holt has pushed back firmly against easing in a post titled “No way the BoC should be cutting any time soon, if at all.” He pointed to persistently elevated core inflation, even before the full effects of tariff-related supply shocks take hold. “Despite modest slack, other forces are keeping core inflation at sticky, elevated levels,” he noted. Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country. Read more. Next release: Wed Jun 04, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2.75% Previous: 2.75% Source: Bank of Canada
18:18 Crude rallies despite OPEC+ supply return – TDS
Crude prices are rallying even as OPEC+ continues to bring crude Oil back to markets, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Crude prices are rallying even as OPEC+ continues to bring crude Oil back to markets, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Gulf exports likely to climb post-summer peak"While this was widely expected and eased fears of an even larger supply increase, we continue to expect that markets will struggle to absorb these barrels, but more notably after the summer months given that Gulf Oil exports are more likely set to rise following peak seasonal demand for the region." "For the time being, geopolitical escalation has whipsawed CTAs, but we continue to expect that most scenarios for prices will see CTAs grow their net short in crude and products over the coming week. There is only a very narrrow path towards substantially higher Oil prices."
18:13 Aluminium premium soars 25% on new U.S. tariffs – TDS
Raising Aluminium and steel tariffs has driven Aluminium's midwest premium to nearly instantly rise by nearly 25% of the LME3m benchmark price, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Raising Aluminium and steel tariffs has driven Aluminium's midwest premium to nearly instantly rise by nearly 25% of the LME3m benchmark price, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Copper tariff uncertainty keeps Comex-LME spread tame "Interestingly, Copper markets remain dislocated, but the comex-LME spread only rose by a fraction of that seen in Aluminium's MWP, suggesting traders are still pricing in some uncertainty with respect to timing and scale of any eventual tariffs on Copper." "Still, the resulting strength in comex Copper may pull LME Copper prices higher in the imminent term, as CTAs are forced to resume purchases with up to +20% of algos' max size likely to be bought."
18:08 Gold: Long market plumbing – TDS
Markets continue to expect large-scale CTA buying activity in Gold markets, tallying up to a massive +20% of max size into this week's NFP in any scenario for prices, reflecting a rise in leverage and signal strength as Liberation day's vol-shock continues to reverberate across markets, TDS' Senior
Markets continue to expect large-scale CTA buying activity in Gold markets, tallying up to a massive +20% of max size into this week's NFP in any scenario for prices, reflecting a rise in leverage and signal strength as Liberation day's vol-shock continues to reverberate across markets, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Breakout from April downtrend fuels short covering in Gold"Prices have now broken out of their downtrend set from April highs, which should continue to fuel short covering and disincentivize new shorts from proprietary traders, family offices and small traders. The rise in net non-commercial length from last week's COT report is encouraging, but we find that macro funds have still not meaningfully participated. "Zooming out, aggregate open interest in CME Gold is now approaching extreme lows that have historically been associated with a high probability of strengthening prices (see chart-of-the-day below), underscoring our view that although Gold is perceived as a crowded trade, it is in fact under-owned. With macro funds largely flat in Gold post-liberation day, signs of selling exhaustion from ETF holders, incoming CTA flows, and historically strong forward returns from such low levels of aggregate open interest, prices are likely to be bolstered by positioning alone.""This set-up for flows is particularly surprising amid the ongoing megatheme — Gold's rally is associated with the USD partly losing its store of value function. Gold's rally isn't about demand, it's about trust. How did we end up with long capitulation at the highs? We also expect silver to benefit from CTA buying activity over the same horizon."
17:30 Fed’s Logan: The US economy remains resilient
The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Lorie Logan, struck a cautiously balanced tone in earlier remarks, acknowledging both persistent inflation pressures and rising market uncertainty.
The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Lorie Logan, struck a cautiously balanced tone in earlier remarks, acknowledging both persistent inflation pressures and rising market uncertainty.Key QuotesDespite uncertainty and financial market volatility, the US economy is resilient.The labour market remains stable.Inflation is still somewhat above target.Risks are balanced on both sides of the mandate.If tariffs change inflation expectations, that would be significant.Market volatility and uncertainty could cause households and businesses to pull back.Monetary policy is well positioned to wait and be patient.Well-positioned to act if risks materialise.Key risk is if higher short-term inflation expectations become entrenched.Our job is to ensure inflation doesn't become persistent.
17:19 INR regains ground as the US Dollar weakens, the RBI’s FX position and rising oil prices weigh
The Indian Rupee (INR) stages a mild recovery, strengthening against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after posting a nearly 1% decline the previous week.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/INR slips to 85.36 as the Indian Rupee rebounds after last week’s decline.India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI was revised to 57.6 in May, signaling a mild slowdown.RBI’s $73B short dollar forward position raises risks, interest rate decision due Friday.The Indian Rupee (INR) stages a mild recovery, strengthening against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after posting a nearly 1% decline the previous week. The rebound in the INR is largely driven by a softer US Dollar as easing US Treasury yields and a cautious market tone continue to weigh on the Greenback.At the time of writing, the USD/INR pair is trading near 85.36, hovering around the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) during the early North American session.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower on Monday amid renewed trade tensions tied to US President Donald Trump’s protectionist rhetoric. The selling pressure intensified after the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in weaker than expected, reinforcing concerns about slowing economic momentum, with the Dollar Index trading around 98.67, below its low from the previous week.On the data front, India’s manufacturing activity cooled slightly in May, with the HSBC Manufacturing PMI slipping to 57.6 from 58.3 in April. The figure, released earlier on Monday, matched the analysts' forecast but still points to a mild slowdown in factory momentum.The surge in global oil prices is adding another layer of complexity to the Rupee’s near-term outlook. Crude oil prices jumped over 4% on Monday following reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military airfields and OPEC+'s announcement of a 411,000 barrels per day production increase for July. As a major importer of crude, India remains highly sensitive to price swings in the oil marketAdding to the pressure, fresh concerns have emerged around the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) sizeable short US Dollar position. According to the central bank’s latest data, the RBI had outstanding US Dollar commitments worth approximately $73 billion as of April, based on its net short forward position — a metric reflecting the amount of US Dollars the central bank has agreed to sell in the future. Although the figure is down from a record high of $88.8 billion in February, it still underscores the scale of the RBI’s efforts to stabilize the Indian Rupee amid external headwinds.Looking ahead, investor focus is shifting to the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting on Friday, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates. Traders are also staying cautious ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due Friday, both of which could shape the Fed’s policy outlook. RBI FAQs What is the role of the Reserve Bank of India? The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is "..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India affect the Rupee? The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR. Does the Reserve Bank of India directly intervene in FX markets? Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
17:06 US ISM Manufacturing PMI drops to 48.5 in May
Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector lost momentum in May, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI receding to 48.5 from 48.7 in April, coming in below analysts’ estimates of 49.5.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}ISM Manufacturing PMI deflated to 48.5 in May, missing consensus.The US Dollar remains well on the defensive, flirting with multi-week lows.Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector lost momentum in May, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI receding to 48.5 from 48.7 in April, coming in below analysts’ estimates of 49.5.The Employment Index increased a tad to 46.8 from 46.5 in April, indicating that the sector's payrolls are increasing at a faster pace. In the meanwhile, the Prices Paid Index, the survey's inflation component, eased slightly to 69.4 from 69.8. In addition, the New Orders index went up to 47.6 from April’s 47.2.Market reactionThe US Dollar (USD) trades on a marked bearish bias on Monday, retesting the sub-98.00 region in the wake of the data release and despite reignited concerns on the trade front. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022.
Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency.
When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid registered at 69.4, below expectations (70.2) in May
United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid registered at 69.4, below expectations (70.2) in May
17:00 Silver Price Forecast: Safe-haven XAG/USD surges as US Dollar slides
Silver (XAG/USD) is shining brightly on Monday, with prices rallying in response to a weaker US Dollar (USD). With the white precious metal trading over 3% higher on the day, prices have moved above the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing support at $33.28 at the time of writing.
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Silver (XAG/USD) is shining brightly on Monday, with prices rallying in response to a weaker US Dollar (USD). With the white precious metal trading over 3% higher on the day, prices have moved above the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing support at $33.28 at the time of writing.Market sentiment and the general mood soured over the weekend, after the US President Donald Trump accused China of violating the temporary trade agreement reached in Geneva on May 12.In a post released on Truth Social, Trump stated that "China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!"
Although little context was provided, a Reuters article suggested that the frustration appears to stem from China's lack of progress in fast-tracking the development of its rare earth minerals.According to a report by Reuters on Friday, top global automotive leaders are warning about a looming shortage of rare-earth magnets, which are sourced from China. These magnets are essential components in various automotive applications, including windshield-wiper motors and anti-lock braking systems. This shortage could lead to the shutdown of car manufacturing plants in the near future.On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated during an appearance on Fox News Channel that US trade negotiations with China were "a bit stalled" and that completing a deal would likely require direct engagement from both President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.The renewed tensions and market jitters tend to boost demand for safe havens, such as Gold and Silver, while reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets.Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) is shining brightly on Monday, with prices rallying in response to a weaker US Dollar (USD). With the white precious metal trading over 3% higher on the day, prices have moved above the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing support at $33.28 at the time of writing.Market sentiment and the general mood soured over the weekend, after the US President Donald Trump accused China of violating the temporary trade agreement reached in Geneva on May 12.In a post released on Truth Social, Trump stated that "China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!"
Although little context was provided, a Reuters article suggested that the frustration appears to stem from China's lack of progress in fast-tracking the development of its rare earth minerals.According to a report by Reuters on Friday, top global automotive leaders are warning about a looming shortage of rare-earth magnets, which are sourced from China. These magnets are essential components in various automotive applications, including windshield-wiper motors and anti-lock braking systems. This shortage could lead to the shutdown of car manufacturing plants in the near future.On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated during an appearance on Fox News Channel that US trade negotiations with China were "a bit stalled" and that completing a deal would likely require direct engagement from both President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.The renewed tensions and market jitters tend to boost demand for safe havens, such as Gold and Silver, while reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets.Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
17:00 United States Construction Spending (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in April: Actual (-0.4%)
United States Construction Spending (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in April: Actual (-0.4%)
17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 47.6 (May) vs 47.2
United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 47.6 (May) vs 47.2
17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing PMI below expectations (49.5) in May: Actual (48.5)
United States ISM Manufacturing PMI below expectations (49.5) in May: Actual (48.5)
17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index climbed from previous 46.5 to 46.8 in May
United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index climbed from previous 46.5 to 46.8 in May
16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52 below forecasts (52.3) in May
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52 below forecasts (52.3) in May
16:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 46.1 in May from previous 45.3
Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 46.1 in May from previous 45.3
16:01 Singapore Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7 in May from previous 49.6
Singapore Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7 in May from previous 49.6
16:00 Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 50.3 to 49.4 in May
Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 50.3 to 49.4 in May
15:49 Gold Price Forecast: US Dollar weakness, renewed tariff threats, and safe-haven appeal lift Gold
Gold prices are trading positively on Monday, driven by market uncertainty and an increased demand for safe-haven assets.
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The growing tariff threats and escalating trade tensions have posed a significant risk to risk assets, while a weaker US Dollar has been supportive of Gold prices.Tensions between the US and China have also intensified, with Beijing pushing back against Trump's accusations that it violated a trade agreement reached in Geneva. Gold daily digest: Trump tariffs, US-China trade wars come back in focusIn his post on Truth Social on Friday, Trump stated:” China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!”The Geneva deal had established a 90-day pause on escalating tariffs between the two nations, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China lowering tariffs from 125% to 10%. The agreement also included provisions for China to lift restrictions on the export of critical minerals essential to US industries.In response to Trump's accusations, China's Ministry of Commerce labelled them as "groundless" and asserted that the US had introduced several "discriminatory restrictive measures," including export control guidelines for AI chips, a sales ban on chip design software, and the revocation of Chinese student visas. China emphasized its commitment to safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests and vowed to take "resolute and forceful measures" if the US continued its actions.With the US Dollar under renewed pressure, increased demand for safe havens could see Gold prices continue to receive a positive boost from the shift in sentiment.Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD tests trendline resistanceGold prices are currently testing the upper bound of the symmetrical triangle, providing resistance around the critical psychological level of $3,350.The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is holding near $3,295, just below the $3,300 psychological level.A 2% price increase in today’s session so far has allowed prices to adopt a bullish tone, reflected by an uptick in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has risen to 57.For the next significant move, a clear break of trendline resistance could see prices retest the May high near $3,431, potentially opening the door for a retest of the April 22 all-time high of $3,500.If prices fail to remain upbeat, a move below $3,300 could see Gold prices move back toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April move, near $3,291, and toward the 38.6% Fibonacci level of that same move at $3,161.Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
15:42 Mexican Peso cheers on weaker US Dollar following new tariff threats
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading firmer against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as traders digest the impact of a surprise tariff escalation by the United States. The USD/MXN pair is struggling to maintain any recovery momentum, with risk sentiment dented and the Greenback broadly offered.
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Although Mexico remains a key trade partner and exporter of metals to the US, the Peso has held firm in the early response. Part of the resilience may be due to a broader retreat in the US Dollar, as markets reassess the implications of protectionist policy shifts for growth and inflation.Mexico’s response to the increase in tariffs has been measured so far. President Claudia Sheinbaum said Monday that Mexico remains exempt from the newly announced tariffs, attributing this to ongoing diplomatic cooperation. “Our strong bilateral ties and open dialogue have helped shield Mexico from broader trade penalties,” she stated during a morning press briefing at the National Palace in Mexico City.However, Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard was more direct in his criticism, labeling the tariff hikes as “unjustified.” In a statement released over the weekend, Ebrard added, “That tariff is not justified. It’s unfair according to President Trump’s own arguments. The US runs a trade surplus with Mexico in steel and aluminum. This policy penalizes one of America’s most reliable trading partners.”While no retaliatory measures have been announced, Ebrard confirmed that Mexico is in ongoing talks with US officials to ensure trade terms remain “balanced and predictable”.Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN faces renewed tariff threats ahead of US data-packed weekOn Tuesday, the US JOLTS Job Openings report for April and Factory Orders are in focus, offering insights into labor demand and industrial activity. Markets will use these figures to refine expectations ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release.On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Report, the ISM Services PMI, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will provide a broader view of job creation and regional economic trends. These indicators may shift sentiment around the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance on interest rates.Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May is expected to show job gains of around 130,000, down from April’s 177,000, potentially signalling softer labor market conditions. The data will be critical for shaping Federal Reserve rate expectations, with a downside surprise likely reinforcing dovish sentiment. Stronger-than-forecast numbers, however, could challenge hopes for near-term rate cuts and support the US Dollar.Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April showed a MoM increase of 0.1%, slightly up from March's unchanged rate. The YoY figure decreased to 2.1% from 2.3%. The core PCE rose by 2.5%, down from 2.7% in the previous month. This data suggests a dovish outlook for future US interest rates.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, meeting probabilities for rates to remain on hold at the June meeting are at 98.7% with a 56.4% probability of a rate cut in September. This would reduce interest rates from the current 425 - 450 range to the 400 - 425 range.In Mexico, data published on Friday showed that the Jobless Rate increased to 2.5% in April, in line with analyst forecasts, from 2.2% in March. Employment trends serve as a leading indicator of economic growth.Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN pushes below Moving Average supportUSD/MXN is trending lower. The pair has failed to break above the 19.47-19.63 resistance zone, capped by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May drop. The latest rally attempt stalled below the falling trendline, reinforcing the downside bias.Support is building around 19.18, with the broader bearish channel still intact. A decisive break below this level could open the path to test the 19.11 area, last seen in early 2023.USD/MXN daily chartThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) points downward near 40, suggesting increasing bearish momentum and room for further declines.
The Peso’s near-term strength may persist if global markets continue to price in the negative impact of trade frictions on US growth. However, risks remain tilted to the other side as well, especially if Mexico becomes a direct target of further trade actions.A sustained move below 19.18 would validate the bearish technical setup and potentially open the door toward fresh lows. On the other hand, a break above 19.63 is required to shift the short-term outlook and bring 20.20 back into focus.
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Although Mexico remains a key trade partner and exporter of metals to the US, the Peso has held firm in the early response. Part of the resilience may be due to a broader retreat in the US Dollar, as markets reassess the implications of protectionist policy shifts for growth and inflation.Mexico’s response to the increase in tariffs has been measured so far. President Claudia Sheinbaum said Monday that Mexico remains exempt from the newly announced tariffs, attributing this to ongoing diplomatic cooperation. “Our strong bilateral ties and open dialogue have helped shield Mexico from broader trade penalties,” she stated during a morning press briefing at the National Palace in Mexico City.However, Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard was more direct in his criticism, labeling the tariff hikes as “unjustified.” In a statement released over the weekend, Ebrard added, “That tariff is not justified. It’s unfair according to President Trump’s own arguments. The US runs a trade surplus with Mexico in steel and aluminum. This policy penalizes one of America’s most reliable trading partners.”While no retaliatory measures have been announced, Ebrard confirmed that Mexico is in ongoing talks with US officials to ensure trade terms remain “balanced and predictable”.Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN faces renewed tariff threats ahead of US data-packed weekOn Tuesday, the US JOLTS Job Openings report for April and Factory Orders are in focus, offering insights into labor demand and industrial activity. Markets will use these figures to refine expectations ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release.On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Report, the ISM Services PMI, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will provide a broader view of job creation and regional economic trends. These indicators may shift sentiment around the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance on interest rates.Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May is expected to show job gains of around 130,000, down from April’s 177,000, potentially signalling softer labor market conditions. The data will be critical for shaping Federal Reserve rate expectations, with a downside surprise likely reinforcing dovish sentiment. Stronger-than-forecast numbers, however, could challenge hopes for near-term rate cuts and support the US Dollar.Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April showed a MoM increase of 0.1%, slightly up from March's unchanged rate. The YoY figure decreased to 2.1% from 2.3%. The core PCE rose by 2.5%, down from 2.7% in the previous month. This data suggests a dovish outlook for future US interest rates.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, meeting probabilities for rates to remain on hold at the June meeting are at 98.7% with a 56.4% probability of a rate cut in September. This would reduce interest rates from the current 425 - 450 range to the 400 - 425 range.In Mexico, data published on Friday showed that the Jobless Rate increased to 2.5% in April, in line with analyst forecasts, from 2.2% in March. Employment trends serve as a leading indicator of economic growth.Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN pushes below Moving Average supportUSD/MXN is trending lower. The pair has failed to break above the 19.47-19.63 resistance zone, capped by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May drop. The latest rally attempt stalled below the falling trendline, reinforcing the downside bias.Support is building around 19.18, with the broader bearish channel still intact. A decisive break below this level could open the path to test the 19.11 area, last seen in early 2023.USD/MXN daily chartThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) points downward near 40, suggesting increasing bearish momentum and room for further declines.
The Peso’s near-term strength may persist if global markets continue to price in the negative impact of trade frictions on US growth. However, risks remain tilted to the other side as well, especially if Mexico becomes a direct target of further trade actions.A sustained move below 19.18 would validate the bearish technical setup and potentially open the door toward fresh lows. On the other hand, a break above 19.63 is required to shift the short-term outlook and bring 20.20 back into focus.
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
15:23 USD/CHF sinks to six-week low as strong Swiss GDP, softer Retail Sales boost Swiss Franc
The Swiss Franc (CHF) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day on Monday, starting the week on a firm footing as a broadly weak US Dollar and cautious global sentiment continue to underpin demand for the safe-haven currency.
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The move comes as investors react to Switzerland’s stronger-than-expected first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and a softer Retail Sales print, which further boosted the Swiss Franc’s appeal.Breaking down Monday’s economic releases, Switzerland’s economy grew by 0.5% QoQ, up from a revised 0.3% in the previous quarter and beating market expectations of 0.4%. On an annual basis, GDP expanded by 2.0%, accelerating from 1.6% and surpassing the forecast of a 1.5% increase. The stronger expansion was driven mainly by a surge in exports as Swiss companies front-loaded shipments to the United States (US) to beat looming tariff deadlines.“In particular, exports to the US rose sharply, pointing to possible front-loading in connection with US trade policy,” said the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.The stronger expansion was also underpinned by solid gains in manufacturing, which grew 2.1% in Q1 after a 1.2% rise in Q4. The construction sector also rebounded, posting a 1.1% increase after stagnating in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, activity in trade, repair of motor vehicles, and motorcycles surged by 2.1%, up sharply from just 0.3% in Q4, indicating broad-based growth across key sectors.On the consumer front, Retail Sales in Switzerland increased by 1.3% YoY in April, easing from a 2.2% increase in March and falling short of market expectations for a 2.5% rise. The weaker reading suggests consumers may be growing more cautious despite the broader economy showing signs of strength.Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later today, both of which could impact the US Dollar. On the Swiss side, fresh inflation data due to be released on Tuesday may offer hints on where the Swiss National Bank (SNB) stands on interest rates. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on a monthly basis, measures the change in prices of goods and services which are representative of the private households’ consumption in Switzerland. The CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 03, 2025 06:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: -0.1% Previous: 0% Source: Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland
15:20 South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales increased to 45308 in May from previous 42401
South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales increased to 45308 in May from previous 42401
14:52 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD resumes its uptrend, heading to $3,365 and $3,415
Gold (XAU/USD) has been one of the major beneficiaries of the US Dollar sell-off on Monday. The Precious metal has surged about $60 so far, as the US dollar drops across the board on a mix of trade uncertainty and looming woes about the US fiscal health.
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Trump rattled markets on Friday, announcing plans to double tariffs on Steel and Aluminium imports, and still had time to open a new front in a confrontation with China about minerals trading.
Investors' concerns that these developments will end up weighing on growth and stoking inflation have revived fears of stagflation. This, coupled with the ongoing fears about the impact of a tax-slashing bill that will boost US debt, has given a fresh boost to the “sell America” trade that has been so positive for Gold over the last few monthsXAU/USD Technical AnalysisGold prices seem to have completed last week’s corrective move, ready to resume their broader bullish trend, fuelled by a weaker USD. US ISM Manufacturing figures and Powell´s comments today are likely to determine the US Dollar’s direction.
Bulls are testing three-week highs at $3,365 at the moment. A confirmation above here will clear the path to $3,415 ahead of May’s peak at 3,440.
On the downside, immediate support is at the $3,285 area and $3,345.XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Trump rattled markets on Friday, announcing plans to double tariffs on Steel and Aluminium imports, and still had time to open a new front in a confrontation with China about minerals trading.
Investors' concerns that these developments will end up weighing on growth and stoking inflation have revived fears of stagflation. This, coupled with the ongoing fears about the impact of a tax-slashing bill that will boost US debt, has given a fresh boost to the “sell America” trade that has been so positive for Gold over the last few monthsXAU/USD Technical AnalysisGold prices seem to have completed last week’s corrective move, ready to resume their broader bullish trend, fuelled by a weaker USD. US ISM Manufacturing figures and Powell´s comments today are likely to determine the US Dollar’s direction.
Bulls are testing three-week highs at $3,365 at the moment. A confirmation above here will clear the path to $3,415 ahead of May’s peak at 3,440.
On the downside, immediate support is at the $3,285 area and $3,345.XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
14:39 JPY seeing impressive gains on solid fundamental data – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is strong, up 0.8% against the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Japanese Yen (JPY) is strong, up 0.8% against the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. BoJ to maintain tightening bias"Domestic data remain strong, and the latest manufacturing PMI offered a modest surprise with a print of 49.4. The solid fundamental outlook should allow the BoJ to maintain its bias toward policy tightening and we’ll be looking for confirmation in Gov. Ueda’s speech on Tuesday." "USD/JPY technicals are marginally bearish, however this latest decline looks to be threatening a drop to fresh local lows and a push to the longer-term range low around 140."
14:35 GBP gains offer retracement back toward recent multi-year high – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is also showing impressive strength with a 0.6% gain vs. the US Dollar (USD) and mid-performance among the G10, retracing a good portion of its latest pullback from last Monday’s multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is also showing impressive strength with a 0.6% gain vs. the US Dollar (USD) and mid-performance among the G10, retracing a good portion of its latest pullback from last Monday’s multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Eyeing BoE speeches for continued rate support"Second- and third-tier releases have included stronger than expected housing price data, softer money supply growth, and mixed lending data. The final manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside, at 46.4, however the level remains well short of the UK’s European peers whose readings are much closer to the expansion/contraction threshold at 50." "This week’s BoE calendar is heavy and we’ll be watching to see if the speakers maintain the latest neutral/ hawkish shift in tone. The recent fade in easing expectations has offered the pound some fundamental (rate) support with markets now pricing in only 37bpts of additional easing by December, a 20bpt reduction from early May." "The medium-term trend is bullish and GBP remains well supported as it recovers its latest pullback from last Monday’s multiyear high. The RSI is at 62, leaving ample room for further gains ahead of the overbought threshold at 70. Near-term resistance has been observed in the mid1.35s and we see no additional resistance ahead of the latest high just below 1.36. Near-term support is expected below 1.3450."
14:32 EUR climbs within range – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is strong, up an impressive 0.6% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Euro (EUR) is strong, up an impressive 0.6% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB 25bpt cut is fully priced and widely anticipated"The euro area final manufacturing PMI came in as expected, at 49.4, with Germany disappointing marginally at 48.3 and France offering a modest surprise at 49.8. The data highlight this week will be the preliminary euro area CPI scheduled for release on Tuesday, with expectations of a moderation in both headline and core to 2.0% y/y and 2.4% y/y, respectively." "In terms of event risk, Thursday’s ECB meeting will be critical as policymakers deliver a fresh set of forecasts and offer some insight into their expectations for rates. Recent guidance has been dovish and a 25bpt cut is fully priced and widely anticipated. With markets pricing at least one more 25bpt cut by December, the risk lies with a neutral or hawkish cut with messaging the signals a possible end to the easing cycle." "The latest extension of gains above 1.14 has delivered a fresh local high reaching levels last briefly seen in late April. The RSI is bullish at 60 but well short of the overbought threshold at 70. Recent support has been observed around the 50 day MA (1.1209) and resistance appears limited ahead of the late April high at 1.1573."
14:28 CAD probes best levels since Oct on weak USD – Scotiabank
Better than expected GDP data for Q1 provided a bit of a lift for the CAD Friday.
Better than expected GDP data for Q1 provided a bit of a lift for the CAD Friday. The data saw some marginal repricing of swaps for Wednesday’s BoC policy decision and a couple of Canadian banks reversed their forecast for a cut to a hold—in line with Scotia’s view of no change, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. BoC expected to hold on Wednesday"Under the hood, the Q1 data looked less impressive and growth prospects remain soft—preliminary indications for April GDP indicate a rise of 0.1%. Still, amid all the uncertainty about trade and tariffs, policymakers may well decide to sit this one out. Swaps pricing suggests around 20% risk of a cut. PM Carney will be pushing for intra-provincial trade liberalization to help offset the impact of US tariffs in meetings with Canadian premiers today. Progress here would be helpful in boosting domestic growth prospects to offset the impact of US tariffs.""After struggling to hold the push through USD support at 1.3745/50 last week, the CAD starts the new week off back under 1.37 and pushing the USD down to marginal new cycle lows (lowest since early October). The broader downtrend in the USD may be accelerating a little, the charts suggest. Daily and weekly charts reflect USD-negative price signals forming last week and the intraday, daily and weekly trend oscillators remain USD-negative." "That keeps technical risks focused clearly on the downside for USD/CAD and should mean solid resistance on any pop in the USD towards 1.3850/1.39—if the USD can get there at all. Support is at last week’s 1.3685 low is under pressure and there is little below there ahead of a drop back to 1.34/1.35."
14:25 Trade, tariff concerns weigh on the USD – Scotiabank
With a new month underway, the US Dollar (USD) finds itself on the defensive again, supporting the idea that some of its late May gains could have been related to month-end demand.
With a new month underway, the US Dollar (USD) finds itself on the defensive again, supporting the idea that some of its late May gains could have been related to month-end demand. But the start of June also brings another round of broader weakness in US assets; the USD is lower alongside softer equity futures and weaker US Treasurys so far today—revisiting the uncomfortable pattern of trade that has emerged over the course of the past few weeks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD broadly weaker, stocks and bonds lower on steel/alu tariffs"Friday, President Trump announced 50% tariffs of steel and aluminum while China responded in kind to accusations from the US that it had failed to live up to the trade agreement reached in Geneva last month. Beijing promised to take measures to protect its own interests. Markets are not moving with the same violence as April and May, at least at this point, but renewed weakness in the USD after failing to hold gains made around the tariff stay/reprieve swings last week reflects a high degree of discomfort among investors prospects." "Trade and tariff tensions risk slowing US growth and boosting US inflation at a time when investors have become sensitive to threats to the Fed’s policy independence. Signs of weakening US institutional credibility amid a looser fiscal policy may add to headwinds for US assets. The DXY has found some support near the May 23rd low (99.7) but weaker sentiment and bearish technical trends suggest a test of the April low (97.9) beckons. More generally, the DXY is at risk of slumping back to the 90-95 range in the next few months, we believe." "There is a lot of data for the markets to work through tis week, including NFP data Friday. But it’s not clear that the data run will have much impact on the USD while the Fed remains clearly sidelined—and there remains a good deal of uncertainty about how and when the ongoing trade war will be reflected in hard US data. Last week’s slump in the preliminary April imports total (down nearly 20%) suggest that may be soon. Some signs of softening in the US trucking industry may also be indicative of a the global trade slowdown starting to bite on US activity."
14:22 USD/CNH: Next resistance at 7.2180 is unlikely to come under threat – UOB Group
Chance for US Dollar (USD) to edge above 7.2100 before leveling off against Chinese Yuan (CNH); next resistance at 7.2180 is unlikely to come under threat.
Chance for US Dollar (USD) to edge above 7.2100 before leveling off against Chinese Yuan (CNH); next resistance at 7.2180 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, for now, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.230024-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'trade in a range of 7.1800/7.2000' last Friday. However, after dipping to 7.1814, USD rose quickly and reached 7.2099. Despite the advance, there has been no clear increase in momentum. That said, there is a chance for USD to edge above 7.2100 before leveling off. The next resistance at 7.2180 is unlikely to come under threat. Support levels are at 7.1960 and 7.1890." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from last Thursday (29 May, spot at 7.2025). As indicated, USD 'is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300 for now'.”
14:17 US: The sky seems to be the limit for US tariffs – Commerzbank
As if the prospect of renewed conflict with China were not enough, Donald Trump announced on Friday that he would double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 50%, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.
As if the prospect of renewed conflict with China were not enough, Donald Trump announced on Friday that he would double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 50%, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Likelihood of a deal with the EU is moving lower"The EU responded with unusual severity, threatening to impose retaliatory tariffs. The EU had already announced these after the US introduced reciprocal tariffs, but, like Trump, delayed their implementation by 90 days to allow time for negotiations. Following this latest development, the likelihood of a deal with the EU is probably moving lower.""When we discussed the threat of 50% tariffs on all EU goods here last week, we noted that the level of tariffs appeared to have been set arbitrarily and was not limited by those announced on Liberation Day. Many countries are likely to question the stability of a potential deal with the US if the US administration imposes country-specific tariffs while simultaneously raising product-specific tariffs at random." "For example, what benefit does it bring the United Kingdom to set tariffs at 10% if individual components are exempt and subject to ever-higher tariffs? With such erratic US trade policy, where tariffs are only going up, there is a risk that other countries will turn away from the US. In the long term, this is not good news for the US dollar."
14:09 USD/JPY: Outlook for USD is unclear after wild swings – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 143.25/144.30. In the longer run, the outlook for USD is unclear after wild swings; for the time being it could trade between 142.10 and 146.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 143.25/144.30. In the longer run, the outlook for USD is unclear after wild swings; for the time being it could trade between 142.10 and 146.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD/JPY likely to trade in a range of 143.25/144.3024-HOUR VIEW: "USD rose and then fell sharply last Thursday. On Friday, we indicated that 'the sharp drop could extend, but oversold conditions indicate that any decline is unlikely to reach 142.80.' Our expectations did not materialise, as USD traded in a range of 143.41/144.44 before closing modestly lower by 0.10% at 144.04. Downward momentum has increased slightly, but rather than a sustained decline, USD is more likely to trade in a lower range of 143.25/144.30." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is no change in our view from last Friday (30 May, spot at 143.95). As indicated, 'after the wild swings, the outlook for USD is unclear.' For the time being, USD could trade within last week’s wide range, between 142.10 and 146.30."
14:03 Conflict between the US and China picks up speed again – Commerzbank
US President Donald Trump seems to enjoy keeping people on their toes with his social media announcements every Friday.
US President Donald Trump seems to enjoy keeping people on their toes with his social media announcements every Friday. After causing turmoil the previous week with his threat of tariffs on EU goods, which he later backtracked on as we reported, the conflict with China resumed this Friday, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Trump reignites US-China trade conflict with new accusations"First, Trump announced that China had violated the recent Geneva agreement, which had been welcomed by the market with great relief. For context, just a few weeks ago, the US and China reduced their high tariffs to a more manageable level to allow room for negotiation. Over the weekend, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth attended a security conference in Singapore. He appeared to be making a concerted effort to win back the support of Western and Asian partners, many of whom had become disillusioned with the US's erratic trade policy and, above all, its high reciprocal tariffs." "This morning, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded in similarly strong terms, rejecting Trump's accusations and emphasising that it was the US that had violated the agreement by introducing new chip controls and cancelling Chinese student visas. It should now be clear to most market participants that, even if we see periods of short-term détente from time to time, the fundamental conflict between the two world powers cannot easily be resolved. Discussions are resuming as to whether Xi Jinping will call the US President this week to defuse the latest tensions, but this should not distract from the fact that the differences are too deep to be resolved quickly.""Given all the contradictory statements we have heard from the US administration in recent months, I would be foolish to pretend that I know what the coming days will bring. There could be a U-turn and the announcement of further talks, but there could also be a renewed escalation, including threats of high tariffs. How the US dollar reacts to each scenario in the short term will depend heavily on its specific nature. In the long term, it will become increasingly clear that the US administration has no intention of abandoning tariffs. Even if US companies are currently holding back from passing on price increases to consumers due to the constantly changing tariffs, they will not be able to do so forever. Depending on the Fed's reaction at that point, it will be decided whether the US dollar will ultimately benefit from the tariffs."
13:57 AUD/USD approaches 0.6500 with the US Dollar on the defensive
The Australian Dollar is one of the stronger performers on Monday. The sour risk sentiment is not weighing the Aussie today, which is drawing support from a weak US Dollar to reach levels right below 0.6500.The Greenback has opened the week on the back foot, hit by a mix of events.
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The Greenback has opened the week on the back foot, hit by a mix of events. Trump’s vow to hike Steel and Aluminium imports to 50% threatens to further constrain economic growth and stoke inflation, which has revived investors’ fears of stagflation.
Beyond that, the US president has opened a new front in an already frail trade relationship with China, while market concerns about the impact of a tax-slashing bill on the country's fiscal health remain looming. All, this is giving a fresh boost to the “sell America” trade.Australian manufacturing activity keeps growingIn Australia, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI revealed that the sector’s activity continued growing in May, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace. These figures support the hawkishly tilted message by the RBA last week and provide some support to the AUD.
In the US, the focus today is on the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to have continued improving in May, although still at levels reflecting contraction. The US Dollar needs a positive surprise here to ease bearish pressure.
Apart from that, Fed’s Logan and Goldsbee will meet the press ahead of Chairman Powell. Their comments about economic growth, employment, and inflation will be analysed with attention for clues about the bank’s plans for June and July meetings. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The Greenback has opened the week on the back foot, hit by a mix of events. Trump’s vow to hike Steel and Aluminium imports to 50% threatens to further constrain economic growth and stoke inflation, which has revived investors’ fears of stagflation.
Beyond that, the US president has opened a new front in an already frail trade relationship with China, while market concerns about the impact of a tax-slashing bill on the country's fiscal health remain looming. All, this is giving a fresh boost to the “sell America” trade.Australian manufacturing activity keeps growingIn Australia, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI revealed that the sector’s activity continued growing in May, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace. These figures support the hawkishly tilted message by the RBA last week and provide some support to the AUD.
In the US, the focus today is on the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to have continued improving in May, although still at levels reflecting contraction. The US Dollar needs a positive surprise here to ease bearish pressure.
Apart from that, Fed’s Logan and Goldsbee will meet the press ahead of Chairman Powell. Their comments about economic growth, employment, and inflation will be analysed with attention for clues about the bank’s plans for June and July meetings. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
13:56 NZD/USD might test the significant resistance level at 0.6030 – UOB Group
Above 0.6000, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has a chance to test of the significant resistance level at 0.6030, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Above 0.6000, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has a chance to test of the significant resistance level at 0.6030, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Upward momentum has faded 24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, we were of the view that NZD 'is likely to trade between 0.5940 and 0.6000.' NZD then traded in a narrower range than expected (0.5948/0.5988), closing largely unchanged at 0.5971 (+0.06%). Despite the quiet price action, there has been a slight increase in upward momentum, and this could lead to NZD edging higher to 0.6000 today. A clear break above this level seems unlikely. Support is at 0.5960; a breach of 0.5945 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has ended." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest narrative from last Thursday (29 May, spot at 0.5950), we highlighted that the recent 'upward momentum has faded.' We also highlighted that NZD 'is likely to trade in a range between 0.5900 and 0.6000 for now.' Our view remains unchanged. Looking ahead, should NZD break and remain above 0.6000, it could trigger a test of the significant resistance level at 0.6030."
13:51 Brent holds range, faces resistance near 50-DMA at $67 – Société Générale
Brent crude continues to consolidate in a sideways pattern, with downward momentum still dominant. A potential base formation hinges on holding above recent lows and reclaiming key moving averages, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Brent crude continues to consolidate in a sideways pattern, with downward momentum still dominant. A potential base formation hinges on holding above recent lows and reclaiming key moving averages, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Key support near April low at $58.40 in focus "Brent has evolved within a sideways range after facing resistance near 50-DMA ($67) recently. Daily MACD remains anchored within negative territory denoting prevalence of downward momentum.""It will be interesting to see if Brent can carve out a higher trough than that achieved in April near $58.40 and form a base. If it establishes itself above the MA at $66.30/67.00, a short-term up move may take shape. Next objectives could be located at $68.70 and $72.50."
13:47 GBP: Staying supported for now– ING
Pound Sterling (GBP) is staying relatively supported, particularly against the US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is staying relatively supported, particularly against the US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Above 1.3525 opens up 1.3600 for Cable"In terms of the local sterling story this week, we are due to hear from quite a few Bank of England policymakers, especially at tomorrow's Treasury Committee meeting. Also this morning, we've just seen some better house price data for May – potentially an area of support for the UK economy as interest rates get cut. We look for two further 25bp rate cuts this year.""Above 1.3525 opens up 1.3600 for Cable."
13:40 USD/CNH rebounds toward 7.26 resistance after testing 7.16 – Société Générale
USD/CNH’s recent downtrend has paused after finding support near 7.16, with a modest rebound now unfolding. However, upside may remain limited for now, as break below 7.16 can extend the downtrend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
USD/CNH’s recent downtrend has paused after finding support near 7.16, with a modest rebound now unfolding. However, upside may remain limited for now, as break below 7.16 can extend the downtrend, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Break below 7.16 might trigger a drop towards 7.10/7.08"USD/CNH decline has stalled after carving out an interim low near 7.16 last month. A brief rebound is taking shape after this test. The pair is gradually inching towards recent pivo high and the 50-DMA near 7.26, which could be an interim resistance." "If the bounce peters out near this hurdle, the phase of correction may resume. Break below 7.16 can extend the downtrend towards the ascending trend line drawn since 2023 at 7.10/7.08."
13:35 USD: Risk environment softens on trade confrontation – ING
Global equity markets and the dollar start the week a little softer as trade tensions between the US and China start to reappear. It's not quite fair to say that the US-China trade deal reached in Geneva last month is unravelling, but both sides clearly seem frustrated.
Global equity markets and the dollar start the week a little softer as trade tensions between the US and China start to reappear. It's not quite fair to say that the US-China trade deal reached in Geneva last month is unravelling, but both sides clearly seem frustrated. Social media posts from US President Donald Trump on Friday and comments made in the Chinese state media today both express frustration that trade commitments have not been adhered to. Any early end to the deal, which lasts until 12 August, would hit risk assets and the dollar again, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY can edge down towards the 98.70 area"Another, more indirect factor that may be keeping the dollar soft is the threat of a Section 899 'revenge tax', which is currently in President Trump's tax bill working its way through Congress. The idea here is that the US can employ a retaliatory tax of up to 20% on any country's residents employing 'discriminatory' taxes. There is a lot of legalese here in terms of definitions of these taxes, but one of these is the Digital Services Tax, currently employed in much of Europe and places like India and Taiwan, too.""In theory, if these countries do not remove these discriminatory taxes in time, a new withholding tax on gross income (interest, dividends and royalties) could be applied from the start of next year should the bill go through Congress. The Senate looks at this this week. This all adds to the narrative of the potential divestment of US assets – something we'll be tracking closely as the data emerges.""In terms of data this week, there's a big focus on jobs (job openings on Tuesday and payrolls Friday), plus business surveys starting with ISM manufacturing today. We'll also have quite a few Federal Reserve speakers and get the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday. In terms of the latest Fed views, Christopher Waller gave a speech in Asia earlier today, once again as a proponent of rate cuts later this year. In terms of current market pricing, 53bp of Fed rate cuts are expected this year. Even though the speculative market is quite short dollars already, the bearish overhang suggests DXY can edge down towards the 98.70 area, barring a big positive spike in the ISM today."
13:27 AUD/USD: Expected to trade in a range – UOB Group
For the time being, Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
For the time being, Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Support levels are at 0.6430 and 0.641524-HOUR VIEW: "We expected AUD to 'consolidate in a range of 0.6420/0.6470' last Friday. However, AUD traded in a lower and narrower range between 0.6408 and 0.6451, closing modestly lower by 0.12% at 0.6435. The price action has resulted in a slight increase in upward momentum. Today, AUD could edge higher, but any advance is likely limited to a test 0.6465. The major resistance at 0.6485 is not expected to come under threat. On the downside, support levels are at 0.6430 and 0.6415." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (28 May, spot at 0.6420), we highlighted that 'for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485.' There is no change in our view."
13:10 US Crude Oil (WTI) appreciates against all odds and returns to above $62.00
Buy the rumour, sell the news in Oil prices, as the US benchmark WTI appreciates about $2.5 so far today, despite the output hikes announced by OPEC+ members, fresh threats of US tariffs and new trade tensions between the US and China.
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Buy the rumour, sell the news in Oil prices, as the US benchmark WTI appreciates about $2.5 so far today, despite the output hikes announced by OPEC+ members, fresh threats of US tariffs, and new trade tensions between the US and China.
The OPEC+ crude-producing countries confirmed investors’ concerns and increased their output cuts by 411,000 barrels per day, for a third consecutive time this year, after a meeting held on Saturday.
Investors have welcomed a widely expected decision, as, according to reports by market sources, some member countries brought substantially higher hikes to the table.
Trump’s threat to increase tariffs on Aluminum and Steel imports and a fresh rift with China, have failed to dent Crude Oil’s rally. The recent string of positive fundamental data and lower-than-expected US Oil supplies, coupled with expectations of higher demand during the summer season, seem to have calmed fears of a global oil glut. At least for now. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia. ,
Buy the rumour, sell the news in Oil prices, as the US benchmark WTI appreciates about $2.5 so far today, despite the output hikes announced by OPEC+ members, fresh threats of US tariffs, and new trade tensions between the US and China.
The OPEC+ crude-producing countries confirmed investors’ concerns and increased their output cuts by 411,000 barrels per day, for a third consecutive time this year, after a meeting held on Saturday.
Investors have welcomed a widely expected decision, as, according to reports by market sources, some member countries brought substantially higher hikes to the table.
Trump’s threat to increase tariffs on Aluminum and Steel imports and a fresh rift with China, have failed to dent Crude Oil’s rally. The recent string of positive fundamental data and lower-than-expected US Oil supplies, coupled with expectations of higher demand during the summer season, seem to have calmed fears of a global oil glut. At least for now. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia. ,
12:58 Trump to double tariffs on Steel and Aluminium – ING
Trump said he would increase tariffs on Steel and Aluminium to 50% from 25%, effective 4 June. He made the announcement as he visited a US Steel Corp. plant on Friday.
Trump said he would increase tariffs on Steel and Aluminium to 50% from 25%, effective 4 June. He made the announcement as he visited a US Steel Corp. plant on Friday. Later on, Trump said he would raise Aluminium rates in a Truth Social post, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Trump says the tariffs are aimed at bolstering domestic production"The US imports significant volumes of Aluminium and Steel from Canada. It imports roughly half of its Aluminium needs from abroad, with Canada the biggest supplier, accounting for 58% of imports, followed by 6% from the United Arab Emirates, US government figures show. The US also relies on Mexico and Canada for around 90% of its Aluminium scrap imports. Around 23% of Steel imports into the US arrive from Canada, followed by Brazil at 16%, Mexico at 12% and South Korea at 10%.""Trump said the tariffs are aimed at bolstering domestic production and bringing jobs back to the US. However, in 2024, the output of the US Steel industry was 1% lower than in 2017, before the introduction of the first round of Trump tariffs; the Aluminium industry produced almost 10% less. For Aluminium, rising energy costs have played a major role in the decline of the US smelting industry over the years. Canada's Aluminium industry, on the other hand, benefits from cheap hydropower to power its smelters.""Emirates Global Aluminium’s planned Aluminium smelter in the US, announced last month, could help reduce the US’s reliance on imported Aluminium and increase domestic Aluminium production. The plant will be the first new primary Aluminium smelter built in the US in over 40 years. It’s expected to have a 600,000 metric tonnes per year capacity, nearly doubling US primary Aluminium output. Construction is expected to start by late 2026 and be completed by the end of the decade, with first production anticipated by 2030. Its final go-ahead is contingent on securing a long-term power supply."
12:54 GBP/USD: Likely to trade between 1.3400 and 1.3600 – UOB Group
Current GBP/USD price movements still appear to be part of a range trading phase, likely between 1.3400 and 1.3600, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Current GBP/USD price movements still appear to be part of a range trading phase, likely between 1.3400 and 1.3600, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements still are a part of a ranged movement24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, when GBP was at 1.3500, we noted that there was 'a slight increase in upward momentum.' However, we pointed out that it 'is not enough to suggest a sustained rise.' We highlighted that GBP 'is more likely to trade in a range of 1.3455/1.3530.' GBP subsequently traded between 1.3449 and 1.3510, closing at 1.3453 (-0.27%). Flat momentum indicators suggest further range trading today, most likely between 1.3435 and 1.3505." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as last Friday (30 May, spot at 1.3500). As highlighted, 'the current price movements still appear to be part of a range trading phase, albeit a higher one, between 1.3400 and 1.3600.”
12:47 OPEC+ supply increase in line with our expectations – ING
OPEC+ agreed to another large supply hike over the weekend, increasing it by 411k b/d effective July. The increase is similar to those in May and June.
OPEC+ agreed to another large supply hike over the weekend, increasing it by 411k b/d effective July. The increase is similar to those in May and June. By the end of July, the group will have brought back more than 60% of the 2.2m b/d worth of planned supply increases, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Lower Oil prices continue to weigh on US drilling activity."The latest increase is in line with our expectations. We’re also assuming that OPEC+ will continue with these large supply hikes. This would mean that the full 2.2m b/d of supply will be brought back by the end of the third quarter of this year, 12 months ahead of schedule. This is the key assumption behind our price forecast for ICE Brent to average US$59/bbl in the fourth quarter. Despite the large increase, Oil prices rallied this morning.""Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine added further support to the market this morning. Ukraine carried out large-scale drone attacks on several Russian airfields, which comes ahead of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine this week. In addition, some US senators are pushing for harder sanctions against Russia, with a proposal to impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries that buy Russian Oil. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal hope to have sanctions in place by the time of the G-7 summit in mid-June. While President Trump appears to be increasingly frustrated with President Putin, he’s so far been reluctant to impose additional sanctions. Actions that successfully target Russian Oil flows will change the outlook for the Oil market drastically.""Lower Oil prices continue to weigh on US drilling activity. The latest Baker Hughes data shows that the US Oil rig count fell by 4 to 461, the fifth consecutive week of declines. Given our view for Oil prices to move lower towards the end of this year, we would expect to see additional slowing in drilling activity, calling into question forecasts for growth in US Oil supply next year. The latest positioning data shows that speculators reduced their net long in ICE Brent by 4,379 lots to 158,950 lots as of last Tuesday. It shows that speculators are quite split, with the gross long position increasing by 12,543 lots over the week and the gross short increasing by 16,922 lots."
12:39 EUR: Staying bid despite another ECB rate cut – ING
US Dollar (USD) problems are keeping EUR/USD bid, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
US Dollar (USD) problems are keeping EUR/USD bid, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Above 1.1425, EUR to run up to 1.1500 "This despite the fact that the European Central Bank will very likely be cutting rates on Thursday, and this week's inflation data in the eurozone should come in on the soft side. Here, the flash May eurozone CPI is released tomorrow, where core is expected to drop back to 2.5% year-on-year.""Also on Thursday will be a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels. The European representatives should be better prepared for further excoriating remarks from the US, and may refocus market attention on the planned big pick-up in defence spending. Additionally, some further colour on German fiscal expansion in late June should also prove euro supportive.""EUR/USD has some intra-day resistance at 1.1425, above which a short-term run-up to 1.1500 beckons."
12:36 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 1.1270/1.1435 for now – UOB Grou
Increase in momentum is not enough to indicate a sustained advance; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range of 1.1270/1.1435 for now vs US Dollar (USD), UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Increase in momentum is not enough to indicate a sustained advance; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range of 1.1270/1.1435 for now vs US Dollar (USD), UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Momentum is not enough to indicate a sustained advance24-HOUR VIEW: "The following are the excerpts from our update last Friday: “EUR surged, reaching a high of 1.1384 in the late NY session. The sharp rally has scope to extend, but given the deeply overbought conditions, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1330/1.1415.” The subsequent price movements did not turn out as we expected. Instead of trading in a higher range, EUR fell from 1.1389 to 1.1312, rebounding quickly to close at 1.1347 (-0.21%). The price action still appears to be part of range trading phase. Today, we expect EUR to trade in a range of 1.1320/1.1390." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from last Friday (30 May, spot at 1.1380) remains valid. As highlighted, the recent 'increase in momentum is not enough for a sustained advance.' To rise in a sustained manner, EUR must first break and hold above 1.1435. Meanwhile, EUR is likely to trade in a range of 1.1270/1.1435."
12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $33.37 per troy ounce, up 1.15% from the $32.99 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have increased by 15.48% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 33.37 1 Gram 1.07
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.34 on Monday, up from 99.71 on Friday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.34 on Monday, up from 99.71 on Friday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:04 US Dollar Index drops below 99.00 due to tariff threats, ISM Manufacturing PMI awaited
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is depreciating by more than 0.50% and trading near 98.80 during the European hours on Monday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}US Dollar Index loses ground due to risk-off tone after fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump.Trump accused China of breaching tariffs truce, while China’s Ministry responded, that it had complied with the agreement.Trump plans to increase import tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% from 25%.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is depreciating by more than 0.50% and trading near 98.80 during the European hours on Monday. Traders seek fresh cues from the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May, which is due later in the North American session.US President Donald Trump, on Friday, accused China of breaching a truce on tariffs reached earlier this month. Washington and Beijing agreed to temporarily lower tit-for-tat tariffs in a meeting in Geneva. Trump said that China had "totally violated its agreement with us". US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also said that China had failed to remove non-tariff barriers as agreed. In response, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that China had complied with the agreement by cancelling or suspending relevant tariff and non-tariff measures aimed at US "reciprocal tariffs."The Greenback faces challenges due to growing concerns regarding slow growth and renewed inflation in the United States (US). US President Donald Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania on Friday that he planned to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum to build up pressure on global steel producers and intensify the trade war. "We are going to be imposing a 25% increase. We're going to bring it from 25% to 50% - the tariffs on steel into the United States of America, which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States," he said, per Reuters.On Thursday, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington temporarily put a hold on a federal’s court ruling and allowing President Trump's tariffs to take effect. On Wednesday, a three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan halted Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect. The federal court found that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing broad import tariffs and declared the executive orders issued on April 2 unlawful.House Republicans passed a Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package, which could increase the US fiscal deficit, along with the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. This scenario raises concerns over US economy and prompts traders to sell American assets under “Sell America” trend. Policy experts anticipate for Senate changes as GOP lawmakers aim to finalize the “big bill” by the July 4. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.65% -0.60% -0.70% -0.33% -0.68% -0.88% -0.71% EUR 0.65% 0.03% -0.05% 0.30% -0.03% -0.26% -0.07% GBP 0.60% -0.03% -0.06% 0.27% -0.06% -0.30% -0.10% JPY 0.70% 0.05% 0.06% 0.37% 0.01% -0.20% -0.11% CAD 0.33% -0.30% -0.27% -0.37% -0.34% -0.57% -0.37% AUD 0.68% 0.03% 0.06% -0.01% 0.34% -0.17% 0.07% NZD 0.88% 0.26% 0.30% 0.20% 0.57% 0.17% 0.19% CHF 0.71% 0.07% 0.10% 0.11% 0.37% -0.07% -0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
11:58 NZD/USD Price Forescast: Above 0.6030, the next target is 0.6090
The New Zealand Dollar is one of the best performers on Monday.
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The New Zealand Dollar is one of the best performers on Monday. The Kiwi is dragging support from a weaker US Dollar, to retrace last week's losses, with bulls testing a key resistance area at 0.6030.
Trump’s comments, threatening to double tariffs on steel, a new rift with China on minerals trade and looming concerns about US debt are hammering the US Dollar across the board at the week's opening.
Beyond that, data from Friday showed that US PCE inflation kept cooling, in spite ot the tariffs chaos, which keeps hopes of further Fed easing alive. Earlies today, Fed Governor Christoper Waller has supported that view, adding pressure on the USD.NZD/USD bulls are testing a key resistance at 0.6030From a technical standpoint, the Kiwi keeps moving within an ascending channel. The 4-Hour RSI is high but still below overbought levels, and bulls are pushing against the 0.630 resistance area, the Year-to-Date high.
A confirmation above here will bring the trendline resistance, now at 0.6090, into focus. Above here, a 261.8% Fibonacci extension, a common target, is at 0.6160
On the downside, channel support is at 0.5950. Below that level, the next support would be the 0.5895 level, ahead of May’s low, at 0.5845.NZD/USD 4-Hour Chart New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The New Zealand Dollar is one of the best performers on Monday. The Kiwi is dragging support from a weaker US Dollar, to retrace last week's losses, with bulls testing a key resistance area at 0.6030.
Trump’s comments, threatening to double tariffs on steel, a new rift with China on minerals trade and looming concerns about US debt are hammering the US Dollar across the board at the week's opening.
Beyond that, data from Friday showed that US PCE inflation kept cooling, in spite ot the tariffs chaos, which keeps hopes of further Fed easing alive. Earlies today, Fed Governor Christoper Waller has supported that view, adding pressure on the USD.NZD/USD bulls are testing a key resistance at 0.6030From a technical standpoint, the Kiwi keeps moving within an ascending channel. The 4-Hour RSI is high but still below overbought levels, and bulls are pushing against the 0.630 resistance area, the Year-to-Date high.
A confirmation above here will bring the trendline resistance, now at 0.6090, into focus. Above here, a 261.8% Fibonacci extension, a common target, is at 0.6160
On the downside, channel support is at 0.5950. Below that level, the next support would be the 0.5895 level, ahead of May’s low, at 0.5845.NZD/USD 4-Hour Chart New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
11:31 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY): 3.2% (April) vs previous 3.4%
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY): 3.2% (April) vs previous 3.4%
11:30 United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.58B, above expectations (£1.1B) in April
United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.58B, above expectations (£1.1B) in April
11:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) registered at £0.82B, below expectations (£2.8B) in April
United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) registered at £0.82B, below expectations (£2.8B) in April
11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (45.1) in May: Actual (46.4)
United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (45.1) in May: Actual (46.4)
11:30 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0% in April
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0% in April
11:29 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals came in at 60.463K below forecasts (63K) in April
United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals came in at 60.463K below forecasts (63K) in April
11:21 USD/CAD explores Year-to-Date lows below 1.3700 amid broad-based Dollar weakness
Strong Canadian GDP raises expectations of a hawkish BoC on Wednesday.The US Dollar is dropping across the board, hammered by a mix of risk aversion amid Trump’s erratic trade policies, concerns about fresh tariffs, and looming fears of US debt that have revived the “sell America” trade.The US Presi
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The Canadian Dollar is testing YTD highs with the USD on the defensive.The “Sell America” trade is back on new tariff threats and looming US debt woes.Strong Canadian GDP raises expectations of a hawkish BoC on Wednesday.
The US Dollar is dropping across the board, hammered by a mix of risk aversion amid Trump’s erratic trade policies, concerns about fresh tariffs, and looming fears of US debt that have revived the “sell America” trade.
The US President rattled markets on Friday, threatening to increase Steel and Aluminium levies from 25% to 50%, with the US Dollar taking the worst part. The announcement opened a new chapter on the chaotic trade policy and raised concerns that it will constrain economic growth and increase inflation.
Beyond that, an accusation that China has violated the trade agreement on minerals has received an energetic reaction from Beijing, which puts further pressure on the already deteriorated relationship between the world’s two major economies. A weak Dollar and strong Canadian data keep the pair on its back footThe market has reacted by selling the US Dollar. The Canadian Dollar is trading highest levels since last October, as the pair moves below the 1.3700, despite the fact that Canada is one of the main Steel exporters to the US.
The market seems to have prioritised the uncertainty about the US trade agenda above the potential impact on the Canadian economy, in case Trump’s threat finally comes to effect, which is another matter.
Macroeconomic data released on Friday revealed that US inflation keeps trending lower, at least for now, which gives leeway for the Fed to ease interest rates further. Fed’s Waller endorsed this view earlier today, and added pressure on the US Dollar.
In Canada, on the other hand, GDP numbers seen on Friday posted a positive surprise, with an unexpected acceleration in the first quarter. These figures have boosted expectations that the Bank of Canada might keep rates on Hold on Wednesday, which is providing additional support to the loonie.
Trade uncertainty and debt woes are weighing on the USD. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
The US Dollar is dropping across the board, hammered by a mix of risk aversion amid Trump’s erratic trade policies, concerns about fresh tariffs, and looming fears of US debt that have revived the “sell America” trade.
The US President rattled markets on Friday, threatening to increase Steel and Aluminium levies from 25% to 50%, with the US Dollar taking the worst part. The announcement opened a new chapter on the chaotic trade policy and raised concerns that it will constrain economic growth and increase inflation.
Beyond that, an accusation that China has violated the trade agreement on minerals has received an energetic reaction from Beijing, which puts further pressure on the already deteriorated relationship between the world’s two major economies. A weak Dollar and strong Canadian data keep the pair on its back footThe market has reacted by selling the US Dollar. The Canadian Dollar is trading highest levels since last October, as the pair moves below the 1.3700, despite the fact that Canada is one of the main Steel exporters to the US.
The market seems to have prioritised the uncertainty about the US trade agenda above the potential impact on the Canadian economy, in case Trump’s threat finally comes to effect, which is another matter.
Macroeconomic data released on Friday revealed that US inflation keeps trending lower, at least for now, which gives leeway for the Fed to ease interest rates further. Fed’s Waller endorsed this view earlier today, and added pressure on the US Dollar.
In Canada, on the other hand, GDP numbers seen on Friday posted a positive surprise, with an unexpected acceleration in the first quarter. These figures have boosted expectations that the Bank of Canada might keep rates on Hold on Wednesday, which is providing additional support to the loonie.
Trade uncertainty and debt woes are weighing on the USD. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
11:09 EUR/GBP steadies near 0.8450 due to risk-off mood following Trump tariff tensions
EUR/GBP remains steady after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 0.8430 during the early European hours on Monday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP holds ground due to increased risk sentiment after fresh tariff threats from Trump.The BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged in June following recent key economic data.European Commission noted that Europe will retaliate against the Trump's plan to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.EUR/GBP remains steady after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 0.8430 during the early European hours on Monday. The currency cross moves little due to increased risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump threatened to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum, increasing them to 50% from 25%. The potential tariffs increase concerns regarding slow growth and renewed inflation in the United States.The British Pound also draws support from increased expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would pause easing monetary policy in June. The hotter-than-expected UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a robust growth in the UK Retail Sales data for April weakened the dovish bets surrounding the BoE’s policy outlook.Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased its UK GDP growth forecast for the 2025 to 1.2% from its prior estimate of 1.1%. The upward revision came as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed that the economy expanded at a robust pace of 0.7% in the first quarter, following the 0.1% growth seen in the last quarter of 2024.On Saturday, The European Commission (EC) said that Europe was prepared to fight back against the President Trump's plan to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. The Euro (EUR) may face challenges due to increased safe-haven demand amid escalating the trade fight between two of the world's largest economic powers.President Trump, on May 25, delayed the tariff deadline on imports from the EU from June 1 to July 9. Meanwhile, the Brussels also agreed to accelerate trade talks with the United States to avoid a transatlantic trade war. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
11:04 EUR/USD advances with the US Dollar weighed by tariff threats and debt woes
EUR/USD is trading with minor gains on Monday.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD appreciates on Monday, with the US Dollar weighed by fresh tariff threats and a trade rift with China.Looming concerns about US fiscal stability keep undermining confidence in US assets. Euro bulls are likely to be challenged at the 1.1415 area.EUR/USD is trading with minor gains on Monday. The pair is moving near 1.1400 at the time of writing, with the US Dollar undermined by US President Donald Trump’s fresh tariff threats, a new trade rift with China, while debt concerns remain looming.
Trump rattled markets late Friday, announcing to double tariffs on Steel and Aluminum imports, from 25% to 50%. Investors are wary that such levies will hurt economic growth and boost US inflation.
Beyond that, the US president has further poisoned an already frail trade relationship with China, complaining that Beijing violated an agreement on minerals. Chinese authorities have deemed the accusations as “groundless and threatened to respond with forceful measures.”
This new chapter on the US chaotic trade policy adds to the looming concerns about the country’s fiscal stability. A sweeping tax bill that is expected to add trillions of US Dollars to the Government debt prompted Moody’s to downgrade US ratings two weeks ago and has been fuelling the “Sell America” trade.
Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.69% -0.61% -0.67% -0.43% -0.73% -0.95% -0.66% EUR 0.69% 0.08% 0.05% 0.25% -0.03% -0.29% 0.02% GBP 0.61% -0.08% 0.00% 0.17% -0.11% -0.37% -0.05% JPY 0.67% -0.05% 0.00% 0.23% -0.07% -0.30% -0.09% CAD 0.43% -0.25% -0.17% -0.23% -0.29% -0.54% -0.23% AUD 0.73% 0.03% 0.11% 0.07% 0.29% -0.20% 0.14% NZD 0.95% 0.29% 0.37% 0.30% 0.54% 0.20% 0.32% CHF 0.66% -0.02% 0.05% 0.09% 0.23% -0.14% -0.32% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: The US Dollar opens the week on the back foot
The Euro is drawing support from US Dollar weakness, with market sentiment faltering ahead of a busy week in terms of data. Asian markets are posting losses, with European and US indexes pointing to negative openings. The US Dollar Index dips 0.3%, retracing Friday’s gains.
Earlier on Monday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller remained optimistic about the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months, despite higher inflationary tensions stemming from tariffs. His comments have increased negative pressure on the US Dollar.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data released on Friday endorses Fed Waller’s views. The central bank’s inflation gauge of choice year-over-year (YoY) eased to 2.1% in April, from the previous 2.3% and beyond market expectations of a 2.2% reading. Likewise, the core PCE YoY moderated to 2.5% from 2.7% in March.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent affirmed on Sunday that he is confident that the latest rift with China will be solved when Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have a conversation. Beijing’s reactions to the accusation, however, do not give the impression that the Chinese authorities are going to take the first step.
Euro bulls are likely to be challenged on an event-packed week. Eurozone CPI will be released on Tuesday. Previous inflation data from member countries suggests that price pressures have continued cooling, which paves the way for further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB).
On Thursday, the ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time. ECB President Christine Lagarde will try to deliver a neutral message, but with the Eurozone economy stalled and inflation coming down to target, the bank will be forced to ease monetary policy further to support growth. This might trigger some Euro selling.
In the US, the focus today will be on May’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to have improved from the previous month, although still at levels consistent with contraction in the sector’s activity. The US Dollar would need a positive surprise to ease concerns about an economic slowdown.Technical analysis: EUR/USD is likely to face resistance at the 1.1415 - 1.1435 areaEUR/USD is moving up on Monday, with technical indicators pointing higher. Price action has returned to levels right below 1.1400, and looks likely to test the area between 1.1415 and 1.1435 where the pair has been capped several times.
A successful move above this area would put bulls back in control and shift the focus towards 1.1545.
Failure to break this level, on the contrary, might put the May 30 low at 1.1315 back in play ahead of the 1.1220 support area.EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Trump rattled markets late Friday, announcing to double tariffs on Steel and Aluminum imports, from 25% to 50%. Investors are wary that such levies will hurt economic growth and boost US inflation.
Beyond that, the US president has further poisoned an already frail trade relationship with China, complaining that Beijing violated an agreement on minerals. Chinese authorities have deemed the accusations as “groundless and threatened to respond with forceful measures.”
This new chapter on the US chaotic trade policy adds to the looming concerns about the country’s fiscal stability. A sweeping tax bill that is expected to add trillions of US Dollars to the Government debt prompted Moody’s to downgrade US ratings two weeks ago and has been fuelling the “Sell America” trade.
Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.69% -0.61% -0.67% -0.43% -0.73% -0.95% -0.66% EUR 0.69% 0.08% 0.05% 0.25% -0.03% -0.29% 0.02% GBP 0.61% -0.08% 0.00% 0.17% -0.11% -0.37% -0.05% JPY 0.67% -0.05% 0.00% 0.23% -0.07% -0.30% -0.09% CAD 0.43% -0.25% -0.17% -0.23% -0.29% -0.54% -0.23% AUD 0.73% 0.03% 0.11% 0.07% 0.29% -0.20% 0.14% NZD 0.95% 0.29% 0.37% 0.30% 0.54% 0.20% 0.32% CHF 0.66% -0.02% 0.05% 0.09% 0.23% -0.14% -0.32% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: The US Dollar opens the week on the back foot
The Euro is drawing support from US Dollar weakness, with market sentiment faltering ahead of a busy week in terms of data. Asian markets are posting losses, with European and US indexes pointing to negative openings. The US Dollar Index dips 0.3%, retracing Friday’s gains.
Earlier on Monday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller remained optimistic about the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months, despite higher inflationary tensions stemming from tariffs. His comments have increased negative pressure on the US Dollar.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data released on Friday endorses Fed Waller’s views. The central bank’s inflation gauge of choice year-over-year (YoY) eased to 2.1% in April, from the previous 2.3% and beyond market expectations of a 2.2% reading. Likewise, the core PCE YoY moderated to 2.5% from 2.7% in March.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent affirmed on Sunday that he is confident that the latest rift with China will be solved when Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have a conversation. Beijing’s reactions to the accusation, however, do not give the impression that the Chinese authorities are going to take the first step.
Euro bulls are likely to be challenged on an event-packed week. Eurozone CPI will be released on Tuesday. Previous inflation data from member countries suggests that price pressures have continued cooling, which paves the way for further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB).
On Thursday, the ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time. ECB President Christine Lagarde will try to deliver a neutral message, but with the Eurozone economy stalled and inflation coming down to target, the bank will be forced to ease monetary policy further to support growth. This might trigger some Euro selling.
In the US, the focus today will be on May’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to have improved from the previous month, although still at levels consistent with contraction in the sector’s activity. The US Dollar would need a positive surprise to ease concerns about an economic slowdown.Technical analysis: EUR/USD is likely to face resistance at the 1.1415 - 1.1435 areaEUR/USD is moving up on Monday, with technical indicators pointing higher. Price action has returned to levels right below 1.1400, and looks likely to test the area between 1.1415 and 1.1435 where the pair has been capped several times.
A successful move above this area would put bulls back in control and shift the focus towards 1.1545.
Failure to break this level, on the contrary, might put the May 30 low at 1.1315 back in play ahead of the 1.1220 support area.EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
11:00 Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI unchanged at 53.2 in May
Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI unchanged at 53.2 in May
11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (49.4) in May
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (49.4) in May
10:59 Austria Unemployment fell from previous 311.8K to 296.1K in May
Austria Unemployment fell from previous 311.8K to 296.1K in May
10:58 Austria Unemployment Rate: 6.9% (May) vs previous 7.3%
Austria Unemployment Rate: 6.9% (May) vs previous 7.3%
10:55 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.3, below expectations (48.8) in May
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.3, below expectations (48.8) in May
10:50 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.8 above expectations (49.5) in May
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.8 above expectations (49.5) in May
10:45 Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI down to 49.2 in May from previous 49.3
Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI down to 49.2 in May from previous 49.3
10:30 Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 42.1 below forecasts (46.5) in May
Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 42.1 below forecasts (46.5) in May
10:26 GBP/USD rushes beyond 1.3500 as the US Dollar accelerates its reversal
The Pound is rallying at Monday’s London session opening times, favoured by an ailing US Dollar, which has reversed Friday’s gains following a new tariff threat by US President Trump and a fresh trade rift with China.Investors are selling the US Dollar on Monday, wary that a 50% tariff on Aluminu¡iu
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The Sterling rallies past 1.3500, boosted by the US Dollar’s weakness.Fresh tariff threats, a new rift with China, and looming debt concerns are weighing on the US Dollar.Soft US PCE inflation figures and dovish comments from Fed’s Wakker have added pressure on the Greenback.
The Pound is rallying at Monday’s London session opening times, favoured by an ailing US Dollar, which has reversed Friday’s gains following a new tariff threat by US President Trump and a fresh trade rift with China.
Investors are selling the US Dollar on Monday, wary that a 50% tariff on Aluminu¡ium and steel, as Trump announced on Friday, is likely to add strain on economic activity and boost inflationary pressures.Tariffs and debt woes keep punishing the US DollarApart from that, accusations that China violated an agreement on mineral trading have further poisoned the already fragile relationships between the world’s two major economies. Beijing has responded by taking forceful actions, in a new twist of Trump’s chaotic trade policy that has been weighing on the US Dollar for months.
Renewed trade fears add to looming concerns about the US fiscal stability. Trump´s “big, beautiful bill”, which will be discussed in the Senate for the coming weeks, is expected to add trillions of US Dollars to an already ballooning debt. This is keeping investors on their toes and feeding a gradual “sell America” trade.
In the macroeconomic front, Friday’s US PCE Prices Index eased concerns on inflation, at least for now, and kept hopes of further Fed easing alive. Fed Governor Waller endorsed this view on Monday, which has added negative pressure on the US Dollar.
All in all, the Pound advances, buoyed by Dollar weakness. Later today, the final reading of the UK S&P Manufacturing PMI and BoE’s Mann speech will provide further guidance for the pair. In the US session, the highlight will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.61% -0.60% -0.57% -0.41% -0.72% -0.94% -0.50% EUR 0.61% -0.00% 0.05% 0.19% -0.10% -0.37% 0.10% GBP 0.60% 0.00% 0.06% 0.19% -0.10% -0.37% 0.10% JPY 0.57% -0.05% -0.06% 0.15% -0.16% -0.40% -0.03% CAD 0.41% -0.19% -0.19% -0.15% -0.30% -0.55% -0.09% AUD 0.72% 0.10% 0.10% 0.16% 0.30% -0.20% 0.29% NZD 0.94% 0.37% 0.37% 0.40% 0.55% 0.20% 0.47% CHF 0.50% -0.10% -0.10% 0.03% 0.09% -0.29% -0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound is rallying at Monday’s London session opening times, favoured by an ailing US Dollar, which has reversed Friday’s gains following a new tariff threat by US President Trump and a fresh trade rift with China.
Investors are selling the US Dollar on Monday, wary that a 50% tariff on Aluminu¡ium and steel, as Trump announced on Friday, is likely to add strain on economic activity and boost inflationary pressures.Tariffs and debt woes keep punishing the US DollarApart from that, accusations that China violated an agreement on mineral trading have further poisoned the already fragile relationships between the world’s two major economies. Beijing has responded by taking forceful actions, in a new twist of Trump’s chaotic trade policy that has been weighing on the US Dollar for months.
Renewed trade fears add to looming concerns about the US fiscal stability. Trump´s “big, beautiful bill”, which will be discussed in the Senate for the coming weeks, is expected to add trillions of US Dollars to an already ballooning debt. This is keeping investors on their toes and feeding a gradual “sell America” trade.
In the macroeconomic front, Friday’s US PCE Prices Index eased concerns on inflation, at least for now, and kept hopes of further Fed easing alive. Fed Governor Waller endorsed this view on Monday, which has added negative pressure on the US Dollar.
All in all, the Pound advances, buoyed by Dollar weakness. Later today, the final reading of the UK S&P Manufacturing PMI and BoE’s Mann speech will provide further guidance for the pair. In the US session, the highlight will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.61% -0.60% -0.57% -0.41% -0.72% -0.94% -0.50% EUR 0.61% -0.00% 0.05% 0.19% -0.10% -0.37% 0.10% GBP 0.60% 0.00% 0.06% 0.19% -0.10% -0.37% 0.10% JPY 0.57% -0.05% -0.06% 0.15% -0.16% -0.40% -0.03% CAD 0.41% -0.19% -0.19% -0.15% -0.30% -0.55% -0.09% AUD 0.72% 0.10% 0.10% 0.16% 0.30% -0.20% 0.29% NZD 0.94% 0.37% 0.37% 0.40% 0.55% 0.20% 0.47% CHF 0.50% -0.10% -0.10% 0.03% 0.09% -0.29% -0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
10:15 Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 48.1 to 50.5 in May
Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 48.1 to 50.5 in May
10:10 Forex Today: US Dollar weakens to start week as markets await PMI data
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 2:
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Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 2:The US Dollar (USD) weakens against its major rivals on the first trading day of June. In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers (PMI) data for May. Market participants will also pay close attention to comments from central bank officials. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.49% -0.52% -0.44% -0.33% -0.58% -0.75% -0.43% EUR 0.49% -0.04% 0.07% 0.15% -0.08% -0.30% 0.06% GBP 0.52% 0.04% 0.12% 0.19% -0.04% -0.26% 0.09% JPY 0.44% -0.07% -0.12% 0.11% -0.14% -0.33% -0.07% CAD 0.33% -0.15% -0.19% -0.11% -0.25% -0.45% -0.10% AUD 0.58% 0.08% 0.04% 0.14% 0.25% -0.15% 0.23% NZD 0.75% 0.30% 0.26% 0.33% 0.45% 0.15% 0.35% CHF 0.43% -0.06% -0.09% 0.07% 0.10% -0.23% -0.35% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD Index, which gauges the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, ended the previous week marginally higher. The data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Friday that the annual inflation in the United States (US), as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, declined to 2.1% in April from 2.3% in March.Early Monday, the USD Index stays in negative territory slightly below 99.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures were last seen losing between 0.5% and 0.7% on the day, reflecting a cautious market mood at the start of the week. Escalating geopolitical tensions on news of Ukraine carrying out a large scale drone attack against Russian military bombers in Siberia seem to be weighing on risk sentiment.Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated early Monday that Japan will not back down in its request to reduce tariffs. On Thursday, Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa is expected to hold discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure early Monday and trades below 143.50.EUR/USD gains traction in the European morning and trades near 1.1400. The European economic calendar will feature revisions to the Eurozone and Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI data for May.Following Friday's modest decline, GBP/USD turns north on Monday and trades comfortably above 1.3500. The Bank of England (BoE) will publish Mortgage Approvals data for April.Gold benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere and registers strong gains early Monday. XAU/USD was last seen trading slightly below $3,350, rising more than 1.5% on a daily basis.The data from Switzerland showed on Monday that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2% in the second quarter. This reading surpassed the market expectation of 1.5%. USD/CHF edges lower following the upbeat data and trades slightly below 0.8200. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
10:00 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (0.5%)
Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (0.5%)
10:00 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish outlook remains in play above 163.00
The EUR/JPY cross tumbles to around 163.15 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks further boost the safe-haven flows.
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The cross keeps bullish vibe above the 100-day EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out with neutral RSI indicator. The immediate resistance level is seen at 164.26; the initial support level is located at 162.81.The EUR/JPY cross tumbles to around 163.15 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks further boost the safe-haven flows. Additionally, the rising bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates this year contribute to the JPY’s upside. According to the daily chart, the constructive outlook of EUR/JPY remains in place as the price holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nonetheless, further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midline. This suggests neutral momentum in the near term. The first upside barrier for the cross emerges at 164.26, the high of May 29. Any follow-through buying could set the stage for another push toward 164.80, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. The next hurdle to watch is 165.21, the high of May 13. On the flip side, the first downside target to watch is 162.81, the low of May 30. A clean break below the mentioned level could open the door for a drop toward 162.15, representing the low of May 19 and the 100-day EMA. The next contention level is located at 161.65, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band.EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
10:00 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2%, above forecasts (1.5%) in 1Q
Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2%, above forecasts (1.5%) in 1Q
09:30 Sweden Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 54.2 to 53.6 in May
Sweden Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 54.2 to 53.6 in May
09:30 Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY): -7.7% (May) vs previous -6.1%
Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY): -7.7% (May) vs previous -6.1%
09:30 Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 1.3%, below expectations (2.5%) in April
Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 1.3%, below expectations (2.5%) in April
09:11 USD/CHF drops to near 0.8200 due to increased safe-haven demand
USD/CHF continues its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 0.8210 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) may face challenges amid growing concerns regarding slow growth and renewed inflation in the United States (US).
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The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) may face challenges amid growing concerns regarding slow growth and renewed inflation in the United States (US). US President Donald Trump threatened to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum, increasing them to 50% from 25%.Additionally, the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support from increased safe-haven demand following decision by the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, on Thursday, temporarily allowed President Trump's tariffs to take effect. The decision has reversed a Wednesday’s judgement made by a three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan to halt Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect.Traders keep their eyes on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) monetary policy outlook, with a widely expectations of rate cut to zero in June’s policy meeting. Deflation risks in Swiss economy remain a key concern with headline CPI flat year-over-year in April and core inflation easing to 0.6% from 0.9%.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading near 99.20 at the time of writing. Traders will likely observe US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May will be eyed later in the North American session.US President Donald Trump noted on Friday that he planned to increase import tariffs on steel and aluminum, which may build up pressure on global steel producers and intensify the trade war. "We are going to be imposing a 25% increase. We're going to bring it from 25% to 50% - the tariffs on steel into the United States, which will even further secure the steel industry in the US," he said, per Reuters. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.90 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $60.30.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.90 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $60.30.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is stable, hovering around its previous daily close at $62.57. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:00 Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 49.3 to 50.2 in May
Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 49.3 to 50.2 in May
09:00 United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) up to 3.5% in May from previous 3.4%
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) up to 3.5% in May from previous 3.4%
09:00 United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.1%) in May
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.1%) in May
08:53 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Next upside barrier emerges near 1.1450
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 1.1370 during the early European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid the renewed trade war tensions.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
EUR/USD daily chart
EUR/USD daily chart
08:41 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to -0.4% in May
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to -0.4% in May
08:12 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds steady above $33.00 mark, seems poised to climb further
Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher at the start of a new week and retakes the $33.00 mark during the Asian session, reversing a part of Friday's losses. The intraday uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciating move.
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The intraday uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. Looking at the broader picture, the XAG/USD has been oscillating in a familiar range over the past two weeks or so, forming a rectangle on short-term charts. Against the backdrop of the recent breakout through a descending channel, this might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase. Moreover, slightly positive technical indicators on the daily chart – though they have been struggling to gain any meaningful traction – back the case for an eventual breakout to the upside. In the meantime, any subsequent move higher might continue to face strong resistance near the $33.50 supply zone. A sustained strength beyond will reaffirm the constructive outlook and lift the XAG/USD beyond the $33.65-70 hurdle, or the highest level since early April touched last Thursday, towards the $34.00 round-figure mark. The momentum could extend further and allow the white metal to retest the year-to-date high, around the $34.55-$34.60 zone touched in March.On the flip side, the $32.75-32.70 area, or the lower boundary of the aforementioned trading range, should continue to offer immediate support to the XAG/USD. A convincing break below might expose the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently pegged just above the $32.00 mark. Some follow-through selling could drag the commodity further toward the $31.40 support, which if broken decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
08:01 Netherlands, The Nevi Manufacturing PMI: 49 (May) vs previous 49.2
Netherlands, The Nevi Manufacturing PMI: 49 (May) vs previous 49.2
08:00 Japan's Ishiba: We have no intention to compromise on US tariffs
Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that Japan reaffirmed that it was not backing down in wanting tariffs to be reduced.
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Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that Japan reaffirmed that it was not backing down in wanting tariffs to be reduced. Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa will leave Japan on Thursday to hold discussions with his counterparts, including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, citing an unnamed government official.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.36% lower on the day to trade at 143.50. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
07:41 Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in May
Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in May
07:40 WTI climbs to near $62.00 amid renewed trade tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $61.90 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The WTI price jumps due to ongoing tariff uncertainty and the persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
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OPEC+ decided to raise output by 411,000 bpd in July, the third straight month of the same hike. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $61.90 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The WTI price jumps due to ongoing tariff uncertainty and the persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump’s tariffs raised concerns about global economic weakness, which might drag the price of black gold lower. Trump claimed on Friday that China had violated their trade agreement. Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-China trade talks as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to speak soon to iron out trade issues including a dispute over critical minerals.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced Saturday that it will increase oil output by 411,000 barrels a day (bpd) in July, following an increase in May and June. OPEC+ noted in a statement that a “steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories” was its reasoning for the July increase. Analysts said an increased supply might weigh on crude prices, squeezing all producers, but some more than others, including a key group of rivals - US shale producers.Oil traders await the release of the US May ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report, which is due later on Monday. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback and undermine the USD-denominated WTI price. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
07:39 USD/CAD falls to near 1.3700 as traders expect BoC to keep rates steady in June
USD/CAD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.3720 during the Asian hours on Monday.
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The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to gain ground against the US Dollar (USD) following stronger-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized reinforced odds of the Bank of Canada (BoC) holding interest rates steady at its meeting on Wednesday.Canada’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the first quarter, surpassing the expected 1.7% growth, driven by a front-loading of exports and business inventories amid rising potential of US tariffs.Additionally, the rise in crude Oil prices provide support for the commodity-linked CAD, given that Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price rises to near $62.00 per barrel at the time of writing. The Oil producer group OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, decided to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July by the same amount for the third successive month. The move came as a relief to markets expecting a larger increase.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding ground near 99.30 at the time of writing. US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May will be eyed later in the North American session.On Friday, US President Donald Trump noted at a rally in Pennsylvania that he planned to increase import tariffs on steel and aluminum, which may put pressure on global steel producers and intensify the trade war. "We are going to be imposing a 25% increase. We're going to bring it from 25% to 50% - the tariffs on steel into the United States of America, which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States," he said, per Reuters. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
07:34 Gold price holds steady above $3,200 amid a combination of supporting factors
Gold price (XAU/USD) regains positive traction at the start of a new week and climbs beyond the $3,300 mark during the Asian session, reversing a major part of Friday's losses.
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Gold price (XAU/USD) regains positive traction at the start of a new week and climbs beyond the $3,300 mark during the Asian session, reversing a major part of Friday's losses. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released on Friday further pointed to signs easing inflationary pressures in the US and bolstered the case for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, is seen weighing on the US Dollar (USD) and acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.Meanwhile, geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, along with renewed US-China trade tensions, temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, which turns out to be another factor that benefits the safe-haven Gold price. However, the lack of strong follow-through buying warrants caution for the XAU/USD bulls ahead of this week's US macro releases scheduled at the start of a new month.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from renewed USD selling and reviving safe-haven demandThe US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index cooled to the 2.1% YoY rate in April, or the lowest since February 2021. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, came in at 2.5%, down from the 2.7% increase registered in March.Traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs in September and are pricing in the possibility of another rate cut in December. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that rate cuts remain possible later this year even with the Trump administration's tariffs likely to push up price pressures temporarily.Investors now await speeches from several FOMC members this week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance later this Monday, for cues on the monetary policy outlook. This will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar price dynamics and determining the next leg of a directional move for the non-yielding Gold price.Ukraine ramped up the war with one of the biggest drones attracted to Russia ahead of the second round of direct peace talks in Istanbul later today. Ukraine conducted major drone strikes against Russian military airfields across five regions on Sunday and hit over 40 Russian military aircraft, which included nuclear-capable long-range bombers.Israel strongly denied its involvement in the deadly incident that claimed at least 30 Palestinian lives and accused Hamas of firing on hungry civilians gathered to receive humanitarian aid in southern Gaza. This comes amid a flurry of conflicting reports and keeps geopolitical risks in play, further lending support to the safe-haven XAU/USD.Traders now look forward to important US macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday. Apart from this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech might influence the USD price dynamics and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the commodity. Gold price needs to surpass the $3,326-3,328 hurdle to back prospects for any further appreciating moveFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair is likely to confront a stiff barrier near the $3,326-3,328 supply zone. Against the backdrop of last week's bounce from the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pivotal support on the 4-hour chart, a sustained strength beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. The subsequent move up could lift the Gold price to the $3,345-3,350 intermediate resistance, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $3,400 mark. The momentum could extend further towards the next relevant barrier near the $3,432-3,434 region.On the flip side, weakness below the $3,300 round figure could find some support near the $3,280-3,278 zone. Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $3,258-3,257 region. The latter represents the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, which if broken decisively could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards the $3,200 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
07:34 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,105.56 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,036.34 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 106,203.20 per tola from INR 105,398.10 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,105.56 10 Grams 91,055.02 Tola 106,203.20 Troy Ounce 283,219.80
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:31 Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY): 5.3% (April) vs 1.8%
Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY): 5.3% (April) vs 1.8%
07:31 Indonesia Inflation (MoM) came in at -0.37%, below expectations (-0.01%) in May
Indonesia Inflation (MoM) came in at -0.37%, below expectations (-0.01%) in May
07:14 Indonesia Trade Balance came in at $0.15B below forecasts ($2.5B) in April
Indonesia Trade Balance came in at $0.15B below forecasts ($2.5B) in April
07:14 Indonesia Imports came in at 21.84%, above forecasts (6.79%) in April
Indonesia Imports came in at 21.84%, above forecasts (6.79%) in April
07:06 Indonesia Exports registered at 5.76% above expectations (5.75%) in April
Indonesia Exports registered at 5.76% above expectations (5.75%) in April
06:38 NZD/USD advances to near 0.6000 due to rising Trump tariff tensions
NZD/USD appreciated by more than 0.50%, trading around 0.6000 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) remains softer amid increasing concerns regarding slow growth and renewed inflation in the United States (US).
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The pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) remains softer amid increasing concerns regarding slow growth and renewed inflation in the United States (US).On Friday, President Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania that he planned to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum to build up pressure on global steel producers and intensify trade war. "We are going to be imposing a 25% increase. We're going to bring it from 25% to 50% - the tariffs on steel into the United States of America, which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States," he said, per Reuters.Additionally, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, on Thursday, temporarily allowed President Trump's tariffs to take effect. The decision has reversed a Wednesday’s judgement made by a three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan to halt Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect. The federal court found that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing broad import tariffs and declared the executive orders issued on April 2 unlawful.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Assistant Governor Karen Silk said that interest rates are now within the neutral 2.5%–3.5% band after reducing Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points last week. Silk also noted that full effects of past rate cuts still remains to be felt in the domestic economy. Further policy decision will be data dependent, she added. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
05:56 Australian Dollar rises on US economic concerns amid Trump’s new tariff threats
The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciated against the US Dollar (USD) by over 0.50% on Monday. The AUD/USD pair rises as the Greenback may face challenges amid growing concerns regarding slow growth and renewed inflation in the United States (US).
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar advances as the US Dollar may struggle due to rising economic concerns in the US.ANZ Job Advertisements fell by 1.2% in May, deepening from a revised 0.3% fall in April.Trump plans to increase import tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% from 25%.The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciated against the US Dollar (USD) by over 0.50% on Monday. The AUD/USD pair rises as the Greenback may face challenges amid growing concerns regarding slow growth and renewed inflation in the United States (US). US President Donald Trump threatened to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum, increasing them to 50% from 25%. ANZ Job Advertisements declined by 1.2% in May, following a revised 0.3% fall in the previous month. The Australian job ads drop for the second consecutive month. Moreover, S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 51.0 in May from 51.7 prior, dropping for the second straight month to the lowest level since February.The AUD holds ground following the mixed Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released on Saturday. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May, from April’s 49.0 reading. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 from the previous 50.4 figure, falling short of the expected reading of 50.6. The Aussie Dollar could be impacted by Chinese economic data as both countries are close trading partners.Australian Dollar advances amid rising concerns over US growth, inflation The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, is holding ground near 99.50 at the time of writing. Traders seek fresh cues from the release of the US May ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is due later in the North American session.US President Donald Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania on Friday that he planned to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum to build up pressure on global steel producers and intensify the trade war. "We are going to be imposing a 25% increase. We're going to bring it from 25% to 50% - the tariffs on steel into the United States of America, which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States," he said, per Reuters.A three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan halted US President Donald Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect. The federal court found that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing broad import tariffs and declared the executive orders issued on April 2 unlawful. However, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, on Thursday, temporarily allowed Trump's tariffs to take effect.Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Minutes for the latest policy meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that Federal Reserve (Fed) officials broadly agreed that heightened economic uncertainty justified their patient approach to interest-rate adjustments. Fed officials emphasized the need to keep interest rates unchanged for some time, as recent policy shifts cloud the US economic outlook.Securities Times in China reports that analysts believe that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) may boost Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL). This move would provide low-cost, long-term funding to policy banks, which in turn support government-prioritized sectors, such as housing, urban redevelopment, and major infrastructure projects.Australia’s seasonally adjusted Retail Sales declined by 0.1% month-over-month in April, against the expectations of remaining consistent at 0.3% growth. Meanwhile, the monthly Building Permits fell by 5.7%, against the expected increase of 3.1%.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver more rate cuts in the upcoming policy meetings. The central bank acknowledged progress in curbing inflation and warned that US-China trade barriers pose downside risks to economic growth. Governor Michele Bullock stated that the RBA is prepared to take additional action if the economic outlook deteriorates sharply, raising the prospect of future rate cuts.Australian Dollar rebounds from 0.6450 support near nine-day EMA AUD/USD is trading around 0.6460 on Monday, indicating a strengthening bullish bias. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the pair is stepping up within the ascending channel pattern. The short-term price momentum strengthens as the pair moves above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising above the 50 mark, suggesting a persistent bullish bias.The AUD/USD pair could target the initial barrier at 0.6537, a seven-month high recorded on May 26. A break above this crucial resistance zone could reinforce the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6650.On the downside, the immediate support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6445, aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6440. A break below this crucial support zone could weaken the bullish bias and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6388.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.15% -0.23% -0.14% -0.34% -0.62% -0.11% EUR 0.14% -0.03% -0.08% -0.02% -0.20% -0.51% 0.02% GBP 0.15% 0.03% -0.04% 0.00% -0.17% -0.49% 0.05% JPY 0.23% 0.08% 0.04% 0.06% -0.14% -0.43% 0.01% CAD 0.14% 0.02% -0.01% -0.06% -0.19% -0.49% 0.04% AUD 0.34% 0.20% 0.17% 0.14% 0.19% -0.25% 0.31% NZD 0.62% 0.51% 0.49% 0.43% 0.49% 0.25% 0.54% CHF 0.11% -0.02% -0.05% -0.01% -0.04% -0.31% -0.54% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
05:45 Japanese Yen bulls retain control amid hawkish BoJ expectations, safe-haven buying
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the front foot against its American counterpart for the third consecutive day on Monday and seems poised to strengthen further amid a combination of supporting factors.
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the front foot against its American counterpart for the third consecutive day on Monday and seems poised to strengthen further amid a combination of supporting factors. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Friday indicated that core inflation accelerated more than expected in May and reaffirmed bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates. Furthermore, persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks turn out to be key factors underpinning the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, comments from Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa suggested progress in trade talks with the US and fueled hopes for an imminent deal as early as this month, which, in turn, lends additional support to the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, attracts fresh sellers on the back of the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further amid signs of easing inflation. This further benefits the lower-yielding JPY and drags the USD/JPY pair below mid-143.00s during the Asian session. Japanese Yen is underpinned by a combination of supporting factors; seems poised to appreciate furtherThe Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three straight years and pointed to sticky food inflation on Friday. This could add pressure on the BoJ to hike interest rates again, which continues to underpin demand for the Japanese Yen.,Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said the latest round of discussions with the Trump administration on tariffs have put them on track toward a trade deal as early as this month. Akazawa added that the two sides will meet again before the Group of Seven leaders’ summit. US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he is going to double tariffs on steel imports from 25% to 50%. Earlier Trump lashed out at China, saying that China had violated its trade deal with the US. The escalation comes after a federal appeals court reinstated Trump's tariffs.Ukraine on Sunday launched one of its largest drone attacks on Russia, striking five air bases deep inside Russian territory and destroying more than 40 planes. Meanwhile, Russia pounded Ukraine with missiles and drones just hours before a new round of direct peace talks in Istanbul.Israel continued its relentless bombardment of the Gaza Strip, while Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a ballistic missile attack, which was intercepted, on Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and benefits the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index cooled to a 2.1% YoY rate in April from 2.3% in the previous month. Moreover, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.5% compared to 2.7% in March. The data reaffirmed expectations that the Fed will cut its target for short-term borrowing costs in September. Traders are also pricing in the possibility of a second rate cut in December. This prompts fresh US Dollar selling and further exerts pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Investors now look forward to this week's important US macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later this Monday. Apart from this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance will be looked upon for short-term impetuses.USD/JPY could extend the downward trajectory further below the 143.00 mark amid a bearish technical setup Last week's failure near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downfall from the monthly peak and a subsequent fall below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favors the USD/JPY bears. This, along with negative oscillators on daily/hourly charts, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside and supports prospects for deeper losses. Hence, some follow-through weakness towards the 143.00 mark, en route to the next relevant support near the 142.40 area, looks like a distinct possibility. The pair could eventually drop to the 142.10 area, or the monthly low touched last Tuesday.On the flip side, the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, currently pegged just ahead of the 144.00 round figure, might now act as an immediate strong barrier. This is closely followed by the 144.25-144.30 supply zone, above which the USD/JPY pair could aim to reclaim the 145.00 psychological mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter should pave the way for a move towards the 145.65 horizontal zone en route to the 146.00 round figure and the 146.25-146.30 region, or a two-week top touched last Thursday. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
05:36 USD/INR gains momentum on RBI rate cut bets
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the decline on Monday. A rise in crude oil prices drags the Indian currency lower. It’s worth noting that India is the world's third-largest oil consumer, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the INR value.
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The Indian Rupee trades in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day. However, the USD/INR pair remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In the near term, further consolidation cannot be ruled out, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midline.USD/INR seems to be finding initial support at 84.78, the low of May 26. A break below the mentioned level could set off a drop toward 84.61, the low of May 12. The next bearish target to watch is 84.00, the psychological level and the lower limit of the trend channel.On the other hand, the key resistance level for the pair emerges in the 85.55-85.65 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and the upper boundary of the trend channel. Any follow-through buying could see a rally to 86.10, the high of May 22. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
The Indian Rupee trades in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day. However, the USD/INR pair remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In the near term, further consolidation cannot be ruled out, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midline.USD/INR seems to be finding initial support at 84.78, the low of May 26. A break below the mentioned level could set off a drop toward 84.61, the low of May 12. The next bearish target to watch is 84.00, the psychological level and the lower limit of the trend channel.On the other hand, the key resistance level for the pair emerges in the 85.55-85.65 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and the upper boundary of the trend channel. Any follow-through buying could see a rally to 86.10, the high of May 22. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
04:31 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements: -1.2% (May) vs previous 0.5%
Australia ANZ Job Advertisements: -1.2% (May) vs previous 0.5%
04:30 EUR/USD rises toward 1.1400 as Trump threatens to double import tariffs on steel, aluminum
EUR/USD retraces its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 1.1370 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) struggles as the US Court of Appeals, on Thursday, ruling allowing US President Donald Trump's tariffs to take effect.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
04:12 Ukraine launches major drone attack on Russian bombers
Ukraine has carried out a “large-scale” drone attack against Russian military bombers in Siberia, striking more than 40 warplanes thousands of miles from its territory, a security official said early Monday.
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Ukraine has carried out a “large-scale” drone attack against Russian military bombers in Siberia, striking more than 40 warplanes thousands of miles from its territory, a security official said early Monday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that 117 drones were used in the so-called "Spider's Web" operation by the SBU security service, striking "34% of [Russia's] strategic cruise missile carriers”. Russia confirmed Ukrainian attacks in five regions, calling them a "terrorist act."Market reactionAt the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 0.74% higher on the day to trade at $3,310. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
04:05 GBP/USD moves back closer to 1.3500 mark amid broadly weaker USD
The GBP/USD pair regains positive traction at the start of a new week amid renewed US Dollar (USD) selling, though it remains below the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
03:55 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds above $3,300 on economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks
The Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to around $3,310 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. Ongoing tariff uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
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Economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks provide some support to the Gold price, a safe-haven asset. US PCE inflation eased to 2.1% YoY in April, softer than expected. The Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to around $3,310 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. Ongoing tariff uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Investors will keep an eye on the US May ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report, which is due later on Monday. The precious metal drifts higher amid renewed tensions between the United States (US) and China. US President Donald Trump claimed on Friday that China had violated their trade agreement. This, in turn, has fueled uncertainty in global markets and provided some support to the Gold price. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to speak soon to iron out trade issues, including a dispute over critical minerals. Any positive developments surrounding the US-China trade talks might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Additionally, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East underpin the yellow metal. The BBC reported early Monday that Ukraine said it completed its biggest long-range attack of the war with Russia on Sunday, following the use of smuggled drones to launch a series of major strikes on 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases.A softer US inflation report keeps hopes for a rate cut alive. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.1% year on year in April, compared to 2.3% in March, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Friday. This figure came in below the 2.2% forecast. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
03:32 South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 47.7 in May from previous 47.5
South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 47.7 in May from previous 47.5
03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4, above expectations (49) in May
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4, above expectations (49) in May
02:59 OPEC+ agrees on third oil output hike, may be larger than 411,000 bpd - Reuters
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to surge oil output for the third month in a row. An increase in oil output for July that may be larger than the 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) increases it made for May and June, per Reuters.
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to surge oil output for the third month in a row. An increase in oil output for July that may be larger than the 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) increases it made for May and June, per Reuters. Market reactionAt the time of press, the WTI price was up 1.90% on the day at $61.45. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:50 Japan Capital Spending above expectations (3.8%) in 1Q: Actual (6.4%)
Japan Capital Spending above expectations (3.8%) in 1Q: Actual (6.4%)
02:35 US President Trump, China’s Xi Jinping likely to speak soon on minerals trade dispute - Reuters
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to speak soon to iron out trade issues including a dispute over critical minerals, per Reuters.
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to speak soon to iron out trade issues including a dispute over critical minerals, per Reuters. These comments came after Trump on Friday accused China of violating an agreement with the US to mutually roll back tariffs and holding back products essential to the industrial supply chain.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6448, up 0.25% on the day. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
02:16 AUD/USD extends the rally to near 0.6450 amid weaker US Dollar, tariff uncertainty
The AUD/USD pair extends its upside to around 0.6445 during the early Asian session on Monday. Tariff uncertainty continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).
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China's manufacturing sector continued to show signs of improvement in May.Traders await the US May ISM Manufacturing PMI, which will be released later on Monday. The AUD/USD pair extends its upside to around 0.6445 during the early Asian session on Monday. Tariff uncertainty continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders will take more cues from the release of the US May ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is due later on Monday. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday showed that the nation’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May, compared to 49.0 in the previous reading. The reading came in line with the market consensus in the reported month. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 in May versus April’s 50.4 figure. This figure was below the 50.6 expected. The Aussie remains firm in an immediate reaction to the mixed Chinese PMI data. The concern that tariffs will slow growth and reignite inflation in the United States (US) is likely to weigh on the Greenback in the near term. “We're going to have some tariffing. Maybe not as exciting as was announced on April the 2nd, but we're still going to get it,” said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank NY Branch.Furthermore, the passage of US President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill, which is expected to add trillions of USD to an already high fiscal deficit, prompted traders to lean on assets outside the US in the so-called “Sell America” trade. The US May ISM Manufacturing PMI will be the highlight on Monday. If the report showed a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the USD’s losses and create a headwind for the pair. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
01:50 China's NBS Manufacturing PMI rises to 49.5 in May, Non-Manufacturing PMI eases to 50.3
China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5 in May, compared to 49.0 in the previous reading. The reading came in line with the market consensus in the reported month.
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China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5 in May, compared to 49.0 in the previous reading. The reading came in line with the market consensus in the reported month. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI eased to 50.3 in May versus April’s 50.4 figure and below the estimates of 50.6.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6444, up 0.19% on the day. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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