Análisis de mercado diario

May kicked off on a cautious note as investors braced for a week jam-packed with speeches from central bank officials and the highly anticipated US jobs report.

After a challenging month in April, we questioned whether the dollar could recover? Given its negative performance against G10 currencies this week, bulls certainly have a very steep hill to climb to reclaim back some control.

In our technical outlook, yen crosses were under the spotlight. Military tensions between China and Taiwan sparked risk aversion and boosted appetite for safe-haven currencies including the Japanese Yen.

As discussed on Tuesday, the USDJPY was blocked below 109.686. The repeated rejection around the 109.30 levels created a platform for bears to drag prices lower. A broadly weaker dollar on Friday following the dismal US jobs report sent the USDJPY tumbling towards 108.30.

Our stock of the week was Uber which released its Q1 results after US markets closed on Wednesday. The company reported mixed results for the first quarter of 2021. However, the net loss for the quarter was $108 million which was an incredible improvement from the $968 million it lost in Q4.

Mid-week global equity bulls made an appearance, shaking off the caution from China-Taiwan tensions and comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen. However, a late tech selloff sent the Nasdaq lower for the fourth consecutive session. 

The Euro caught our attention after forming a death cross technical chart pattern. But this setup was trashed by a broadly weaker dollar on Friday. The EURUSD is trading around 1.2160 as of writing. A solid weekly close above 1.2150 could signal further upside in the week ahead. 

On Thursday, the Bank of England was under the spotlight. Although the central bank left interest rates unchanged as widely expected, it reduced the pace of weekly asset purchases to £3.4 billion from the previous rate of £4.4 billion. While the BoE expressed optimism over the UK economy, hawks were kept at bay.

Looking at the technical picture, the GBPUSD remains in a wide range on the daily charts. A breakout could be on the horizon thanks to a weaker Dollar. Should bulls conquer the 1.4000 resistance, the next key level of interest will be around 1.4110.

It was all about the shocking payroll data on Friday. The US economy added 266,000 jobs in April, massively missing expectations for 990,000. March’s figure was also revised down to 770,000 from 916,000. In regards to the unemployment rate, this rose to 6.1% while average hourly earnings m/m rose 0.7%.

The key question is whether this bad news is good news for markets? Treasury Yields spiked as low as 1.464% before rebounding while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones rallied to fresh record highs. 

In the commodity space, Gold exploded higher following the disappointing US jobs report. Prices punched above $1840 thanks to a tumbling Dollar and falling treasury yields. 

Looking at the technical picture, the precious metal is experiencing a pullback from the daily high but is still on route to concluding the week over 3% higher. Bulls remain in the driving seat as long as $1800 proves to be reliable support. 

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

America’s largest ride-hailing platform is set to announce its Q1 results after US markets close on Wednesday. Investors want to know how much Uber’s services are back in demand, as lockdown measures eased between January and March this year.

Even as broader stock markets have been celebrating the reopening of the US economy, Uber’s stock prices were noticeably more sanguine. The stock has been relatively range-bound over the past two months, with the stock finding a close above $60 unsustainable since posting its highest ever closing price on 10 February. The stock has fallen by over 16% since.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spooked some segments of the US stock market on Tuesday with comments that hinted at rising interest rates to curb an overheating economy. The selloff in tech stocks contributed to Uber’s share price closing below its lower Bollinger band.

That in itself may not be such a bad thing for technical traders.

Uber bulls might take heart from such a technical event because the last time the stock closed below the lower bound of the band, it went on to stage a massive rally of more than 35% in just over two weeks! Also, over the past 12 months, the stock has found its forays below its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) to be fleeting.

Perhaps in that regard, this stock is akin to a coiled spring, raring to be propelled higher from such oversold conditions, with Wednesday’s announcement potentially serving as the trigger.

Though with momentum firmly pointing south, Uber appears in need of a major vote of optimism from the markets before we can say with conviction that a new record high is coming into view.

Is the pandemic finally in Uber’s rearview mirror?

For the quarter, markets are expecting Uber’s revenue to come in at $3.25 billion, which would mark a gradual increase from the past two quarters, though still 8.2% lower year-on-year.

The bigger boost likely came from some pandemic-era habits that have stuck around. Uber’s delivery services increased by 150% year-on-year in March, which helped the company post a record high for its monthly gross bookings!

Still, Uber’s net loss for Q1 is forecasted at around $1.05 billion, with investors wanting to know how such numbers might impact the company’s repeated forecasts of achieving profitability by year-end.

Winding road ahead

In its pursuit of profitability, Uber is also set to face some near-term challenges.

The company has set aside an extra $250 million to lure drivers back with, as the demand resurgence outpaces the number of drivers who’s willing to return to such gigs. That figure could erode its bottom line in the coming quarters.

Also, Uber may have to contend with higher operating costs if regulators are to have their way. Just last week, US Labor Secretary, Marty Walsh, said that gig workers should be classified as “employees”, which raises the prospects of the likes of Uber being saddled with the compliance costs to employment law. In March, Uber reclassified all its drivers in the UK as “workers”, and the entitled benefits to drivers would cost the company about $300 million per year, according to Morgan Stanley estimates.

Raring to grow

Still, it’s not all doom and gloom for Uber’s outlook.

Besides riding on the global economic reopening, Uber plans to also aggressively grow its delivery services across the US over the coming months, reportedly in partnership with GoPuff, a startup that focuses on deliveries. Such a move would help bolster its deliveries offerings, following its $2.65 billion acquisition of Postmates last year.

There are also plans to roll out Uber Eats Germany, expanding its foray on the continent beyond existing markets in Spain, France, Poland, and the UK. Uber is also partnering with a London-based EV maker to produce cars for ride-hailing by Q3 2023.

Such ambitions could help Uber diversify its income streams, both geographically and also across varying business segments.

How could Uber’s shares react post-earnings?

Markets think that the stock could move by 8.43% when the US cash session reopens after Uber’s Q1 earnings have been released.

Uber’s shares already gained 3.6% in extended trading on Tuesday, climbing alongside the stock prices of its rival, Lyft, which announced its own results after markets closed.

Those who believe in Uber’s long-term prospects must gain enough critical mass in order for the stock to hit a new record high.

At least for the near-term, investors can take heart that, as the Covid-19 vaccine continues permeating major economies, that should help bolster Uber’s core business as people grow more comfortable hopping back into an Uber for their trips back to work, school, or out about town.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

The past few months have been rough for Uber Technologies, Inc as the multi-national ride-hailing giant grappled with profitability concerns, multiple regulatory challenges and growing competition.

Price wars with competitor Lyft have negatively impacted profitability, with Uber reporting losses of $1.2 billion during the third quarter of 2019 and $5.2 billion in Q2. After US markets close on Thursday, Uber Technologies, Inc. will release its fourth quarter financial results with investors paying very close attention towards gross bookings, ride segment results and Uber eats.

Wall Street expects the ride-hailing giant to book a $1.2 billion loss, piling up Uber’s losses for 2019 at a painful $8.5 billion. Revenues are expected to hit $4.07 billion while earnings per share are seen falling to 67 cents a share, up from the 76-cents-a-share loss expected at the beginning of the quarter.

Despite all the gloom and doom, investors still remain optimistic about the company’s future. Shares have appreciated over 25% since the start of the year, as the business outlook brightened following the completion of a mega $3.1 billion takeover of Middle-East based rival Careem.

If Q4 earnings and revenues surprise to the upside, Uber shares may rally to levels not seen since early August 2019 above $40. Alternatively, disappointing quarterly earnings report may send share prices lower with $36 acting as the first key level of interest. A breakdown below this level could open the doors towards $34.50.

S&P 500 back at record highs

It was another day another record high for the S&P 500 as positive US economic data and China’s pledge to halve tariffs on $75 billion worth of US goods boosted global risk sentiment.

Speculation around central banks easing monetary policy in the face of the coronavirus outbreak injected US equity bulls with additional inspiration to push the S&P 500 to all-time highs above 3350.

From a technical standpoint, a solid daily close above 3340 may open the doors towards 3380 over the coming weeks. If 3380 proves to be reliable resistance, the S&P 500 could correct back towards 3000.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Bitcoin bulls shifted into higher gear over the weekend , as prices surged to above $7550, levels not seen since August 2018.

With no major news factors behind the aggressive appreciation, the sharp $1000 jump over the weekend remains a mystery to investors. Although such explosive moves are nothing new in the volatile world of cryptocurrency, there is the coincidental view that the rally in Bitcoin has come around the same time as heightened US-China trade tensions have eroded risk sentiment. While it’s far too premature to suggest that Bitcoin has restored itself as a potential safe-haven asset for investors, the idea will attempt to pick up further momentum if the cryptocurrency continues to explode higher amid the risk-off conditions.

There is a likelihood that Bitcoin bulls are finding inspiration to jump into the market on the headlines of a rally in Bitcoin. The bullish ‘golden cross’ is already in play on the daily charts. This occurs when the 50-day simple moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average. With prices punching above $7400 and currently trading around the $7000 region, bulls remain in the driving seat. A solid weekly close above $7400 may open the gates towards $8000 in the short to medium-term.

Source: Bloomberg Terminal

Uber shares tumble on debut

Uber shares have stumbled into the trading week, struggling to shake off the hangover from the company’s rough and rocky debut on the New York Stock Exchange last Friday.

Its shares closed down nearly 8% last week thanks to investor skepticism over the company’s unprofitability and general lack of risk appetite amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

The launch of Uber on the stock market was one of the most highly anticipated additions since Facebook shares many years ago, but it is a surprise to see how unsuccessful the launch has been given the widespread popularity of the Uber brand globally.

Overall, it does appear that risk aversion will remain  the name of the game for financial markets further into the trading week as trade tensions, geopolitical risk factors and repeated concerns over global growth diminish risk appetite. Uber shares, like many other financial asset classes, are set to stay under a negative spotlight as investors instead favor safe-haven assets.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.