Análisis de mercado diario

Our commodity spotlight shines on Gold which is struggling to shake off the nasty hangover from last Friday’s painful selloff.

The precious metal has been bruised by an appreciating Dollar while rising U.S. bond yields rubbed salt into the wound.

For those who are wondering why this matters, Treasury yields have an inverse correlation with Gold. Given its zero-yielding nature and relationship with the Dollar, the next few days could be rough and rocky for the precious metal.

Since the start of 2021, prices have dropped almost 3% despite the global ‘reflation trade’ receiving a real kicker from the blue wave victory in Georgia’s Senate runoff. However, the battle is far from over for bulls amid the list of fundamental themes supporting appetite for Gold.

Given how Democrats have taken control of the Senate, hopes of further fiscal stimulus have risen. This is fuelling expectations over inflationary pressures making a return in the United States as consumption jumps. With the Dollar’s purchasing power poised to weaken as inflation rises, Gold which is seen as a hedge against inflation is set to benefit. When factoring in how the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping its ultra-accommodative monetary stance in place until at least 2023, the medium to longer-term outlook for the precious metal is bright.

It does not end here. Everything comes at a cost, even the handsome fiscal packages enforced by the government. The federal deficit surged to a record $3.1 trillion in the fiscal year of 2020, according to the Treasury Department. When a fiscal deficit arises, it impacts confidence in the economy and spurs safe-haven demand for Gold.

In our monthly outlook webinar for January, we discussed the possibility of Gold deriving strength from the ‘reflation trade’. Although prices look bearish in the short term with the downside fuelled by an appreciating Dollar, the medium to longer-term outlook remains bullish.

On the weekly timeframe, prices remain a very wide range with tough support around $1760 and resistance around $1960. A strong move back above $1850 could open the doors back towards $1900 while a breakdown below $1800 could signal a decline towards $1760.

Before dissecting the daily setup, check out the key market events in the week ahead which could influence Gold’s near-term outlook.

Focusing back on the technials, all eyes will be on how Gold behaves around the $1850 on the daily charts. A close below this level could encourage a decline towards $1820 and $1775. Should $1850 prove to be reliable support, prices may rebound back towards $1900.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Asian stocks are advancing on the final trading day of June, after a positive session on Wall Street, with market sentiment buoyed further by China’s better-than-expected June PMI readings. The data makes for encouraging signs that the world’s second largest economy is well on its way in overcoming the pandemic.

The Hang Seng index is also climbing higher, keeping up with the regional trend, despite the US halting some trade benefits to Hong Kong pertaining shipments of sensitive American technology to the city. The latest move is in keeping with the threat that Hong Kong may lose its special trading status, amid escalating US-China tensions.

The HSI50 appears to be constrained by the psychologically-important 25,000 level but supported by its 50-day simple moving average. With Hong Kong stocks being squeezed into this tighter range, it suggests that a breakout is imminent. The Hang Seng index’s upside however appears capped by Hong Kong’s perceived place at the epicentre of strained US-China relations. A ratcheting up of tensions between the world’s two largest economies could severely hamper the potential gains in Hong Kong equities.

No surprise then that the Hang Seng could only manage a four percent advance since March 31, which is the lowest quarter-to-date gains among major Asian stock benchmarks. In contrast, the MSCI Asia Pacific index is posting a 15 percent climb for the period, its largest quarter-to-date climb since Q3 2009.

Dollar awaits US consumer confidence data; Powell, Mnuchin testimonies

The Dollar index (DXY) has returned to the upper bounds of its 95.7-97.7 range that it has kept to in June, though it is set to register a loss of over one percent for the quarter. The record-setting gains in May’s pending US home sales, which registered a 44.3 percent month-on-month increase and shattered market expectations, wasn’t enough to break the DXY out of its current sideways trend.

Data-dependent Dollar traders will be looking to the June US consumer confidence data announcement later today for further signs of the US economic recovery. The key question now is whether consumers, who shoulder the responsibility of driving US economic growth, will engage with the stimulus measures that have been rolled out by the government. The consumer confidence readings are expected to post a second consecutive month of recovery, yet remain in sub-100 territory for a third straight month. A positive surprise in the data could encourage more risk-taking behaviour in the markets.

The testimonies by Fed chair Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the House Financial Services Committee could also sway market sentiment, as both are expected to be pressed on the Fed and the Treasury’s respective responses to the pandemic. Should investors get the sense that even more stimulus is on the way, especially from the fiscal side, that could give risk sentiment another shot in the arm and unwind recent gains in the US Dollar.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.