Análisis de mercado diario

A storm is brewing across Turkey's financial markets as the nation desperately struggles to contain another Lira crisis.

Turkish authorities have taken unprecedented measures to prevent Lira volatility by withholding liquidity, with the swap rate rocketing to 1200% on Wednesday. The extremely high borrowing cost makes it almost impossible for foreign investors to sell the Lira just days before the local elections commence. However, when liquidity eventually returns the Turkish Lira is likely to find itself exposed to severe downside shocks.

The absence of liquidity is impacting the USDTRY with prices trading marginally below 5.400 as of writing. In regards to the technical picture, prices are looking bearish on the daily charts with sustained weakness below 5.400 opening a path towards 5.240.

USDZAR breaks above 14.60 

The currency crunch in Turkey has spooked investors with an appetite for emerging market currencies. Buying sentiment towards the Rand deteriorated today as reflected in the USDZAR. The technical picture suggests further upside with a daily close above 14.600 opening a path higher towards 14.658 and possibly higher.

USDMXN eyes 19.40 

The USDMXN jumped considerably today with prices hitting a daily high of 19.37. Prices have scope to push higher if bulls are able to secure a daily close above 19.40.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

GBPJPY

The mounting concerns over the unquantifiable impacts of a Brexit to the UK economy have left the Sterling vulnerable, with the GBPJPY showing signs of weakness during trading on Monday. This pair has always remained bearish and a breakdown below 160.00 may open the gates for a steeper decline towards 156.00 and potentially lower. Prices are trading below both the 20 and 50 SMA while the MACD has also crossed to the downside. As long as the candlesticks can keep below the new lower high of 164.00 this bearish daily outlook remains valid.

USDCAD

This pair is under immense pressure and remains heavily bearish on the daily timeframe. There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades to the downside. Prices are trading below the 20 SMA and this momentum may drag the pair lower towards 1.2850. With the Canadian Dollar appreciating as expectations heighten over oil prices finding a bottom, bearish investors should receive ample encouragement to send the USDCAD towards 1.2850 and much lower.

USDCHF

Dollar vulnerability looks to be one of the main driving forces which has sent the USDCHF to levels not seen since 2015 at 0.9650. This pair is heavily bearish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower highs and lower lows, while the MACD trades to the downside. Previous support around 0.9750 may act as a dynamic resistance for a further decline towards 0.9500. A bullish move and daily close back above 0.9800 suggests bearish weakness and places this setup on standby.

Silver

Silver has surged to fresh 5 week highs on the back on Dollar vulnerability and may be set to incline further as expectations rapidly diminish of further US rate rises in 2016. We have been bullish on Silver for an extended period and with last week’s target of $15.90 being hit, the next major resistance level is based at $16.30. From a technical standpoint, prices are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD trades deep into the upside. Previous resistance at $15.90 should act as a dynamic support for a potential incline towards $16.30.

USDMXN

The USDMXN is technically bearish on the daily timeframe as prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the upside. A solid breakdown below 17.40 should encourage bearish investors to send the USDMXN lower towards 17.00.  

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Global Markets

Although the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% for the 78^th consecutive month, the GBP has encountered aggressive appreciation across the FX markets. Bullish sentiment for the GBP seems to have been reimbursed following the MPC statement explicitly stating that the recent global events have not altered the Bank of England’s central view. Investor concerns about the exposure of the UK economy following the recent global events have been reduced and this should improve sentiment towards the GBP moving forward. Even though the prospects of a UK rate hike anytime soon are weak, the UK data overall is looking robust on a continual basis and there is still optimism that it should be a matter of when, rather than if a rate hike happens in 2016. As of writing the GBPUSD has surged to a new monthly high of 1.5448 on the daily timeframe and currently journeys towards the daily 20 SMA around 1.5470.

Whilst the GBP moves in aggression, the EUR has gently appreciated against the USD as the lingering effects induced by a dovish Draghi last week slowly wear off the minds of investors. The news that both German imports and exports hit record highs in July has helped the sentiment towards the EU economy. This data suggested that foreign appetite for goods from Europe’s largest economy is still sturdy despite the developments in China. Revised GDP q/q also exceeded expectations at 0.4%. The single currency is currently battling the 200 SMA on the daily timeframe and it looks like the single currency is waiting for something bigger to jump above. The next major focus for the EUR will be the German ZEW economy sentiment next week which may shed more light on the German economy.

EURTRY

The EURTRY is bullish on the daily timeframe. The previous resistance at 3.3400 may act as support. A breakout above the 3.4200 resistance may open a path to the next relevant resistance at 3.4800. The MACD trades to the upside and prices are above the daily 20 SMA. A move back below 3.2600 invalidates this bullish outlook.

GBPNZD

The overnight interest rate cut of a further 0.25bp from the RBNZ and the downside economic pressure due to the events in China has granted a bearish sentiment for the NZD. The GBPNZD is technically bullish on the daily timeframe. Prices are trading below the 2.4500 resistance. A solid breach and daily close above this level may open a path to the next relevant resistance at 2.570.

NZDCAD

The NZDCAD is technically bearish on the daily timeframe. Prices have breached the light support at 0.8350 and may continue to decline to the next relevant support at 0.8100. The MACD trades to the downside and prices are below the 20 SMA. Today’s daily candle is forming to be a shooting star, which suggests of a potential for a further decline. A move back above 0.8600 invalidates this daily bearish outlook.

USDMXN

The USD appreciation can be seen clearly on the USDMXN. This pair is technically bullish on the daily timeframe. Prices are currently in a mini range with support at 16.700 and resistance at 17.000. A breakout above 17.000 may pave a path to the next relevant resistance at 17.200, whilst a breakdown below 16.700 may expose the next relevant support at 16.350.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.