Análisis de mercado diario

US stocks have opened modestly lower as risky assets take a well-earned rest after the rally over the last few sessions.

With a run of six straight days without losses, it is kind of inevitable that markets need to take a deep breath and take stock so to speak!

Positive earnings results keep coming and talk of a larger stimulus package is making economists very busy with regard to their upwards revisions of GDP growth. Some estimates have the US expanding at close to 7% this year.

All the positive reflation stories continue to leave their mark on the dollar which is selling off for a third consecutive day and making last week’s strength look like a mere blip in the longer-term downtrend. The reversal below 92 indicates a failed technical breakout and we will see what the bears are made of as we approach the 50-day moving average around 90.45. Break this and we could see 90 very quickly. Interestingly the greenback is selling off in tandem with markets turning risk-off, which is not what we would normally expect.

Once-in-a-lifetime landgrab, or…?

But then we don’t normally expect the world’s richest man to move (part of) his treasury department into a highly volatile asset that many fund managers don’t believe in!

That asset, Bitcoin, is up more than 50% already this year and is rapidly approaching the $50,000 mark, which is almost enough to buy one of the best-selling Tesla vehicles.

After its biggest daily rise in over three years yesterday, is this a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency’s evolution towards everyday acceptance and a standard method of payment? Or should we remind ourselves of what regulators across the globe often preach - bitcoin buyers must be prepared to lose all of their money.

“Vaccine trade” retrace

We’ve labelled EUR/GBP a “vaccine trade” with the UK well ahead of the continent in rolling out vaccines to its population and reopening its economy sooner.

It seems Germany may now go its own way in procuring vaccines as Chancellor Merkel is unhappy with the EU’s pace and is even considering Russian and Chinese alternatives.

Closer to home, pressure from UK industry is increasing on Chancellor Sunak to extend government support before its 3 March budget. The EUR/GBP downtrend has paused around the 0.8750/0.88 area, but if cable can sustain its break above 1.3750, then a bearish bias in the “vaccine trade” is still warranted and this pullback represents a nice selling opportunity. Near-term support lies around 0.8760 on the hourly chart ahead of the lows at 0.8738.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Bitcoin is positioned to remain a major talking point across financial markets this week after jumping as much as 10% yesterday to almost $9000.

With no industry news or reports behind the abrupt upside, the primary factor behind Bitcoin’s aggressive appreciation is likely based around price action. The technical picture suggests that the cryptocurrency remains heavily supported by the bullish ‘golden cross’ formation on the daily charts. This occurs when the 50-day simple moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. With prices slowly approaching $9000, the path of least resistance certainly points north. A solid daily close above $9000 has the potential to open a clean path towards $10,000.

Pound lost in Brexit drama & chaos 

The past few days have certainly not been kind to the British Pound which remains one of the weakest G10 currencies.

Theresa May’s resignation is likely to add to the uncertainty over Brexit and what to expect in the coming months. With fears of a no-deal Brexit mounting by the day amid the drama, the British Pound remains fundamentally bearish. Technical traders will continue to watch how prices behave around 1.2620. A solid daily close below this point will signal a selloff towards 1.2500 in the short to medium term.

EURUSD hovers around 1.1200 

The Euro remains on standby below 1.1200 as investors digest the results of the European Parliament elections. With concerns over Italy’s budget denting appetite for the Euro, the EURUSD is positioned to trend lower. 
Taking a look at the technical standpoint, the EURUSD remains bearish on the weekly charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Sustained weakness below 1.1200 is likely to open a path towards 1.1100 and 1.1000, respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Gold 

Gold struggled for direction today with prices hovering around $1283 as sizzling US-China trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty sent investors rushing towards the Dollar. Although the precious metal got off to a slow start this week, bulls remain in control above $1280. Should this level prove to be reliable support, the next key point of interest for Gold may be found around the $1300 psychological level.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Unified threats articulated by a chorus of financial heavyweights on cryptocurrency regulations during the Davos conference, have exposed Bitcoin to significant downside risks.

Sentiment towards the cryptocurrency is turning increasingly bearish amid regulation fears, with recent news of a massive exchange in Japan halting client withdrawals further souring investor appetite.  In the past, Bitcoin displayed unyielding resilience against a slew of negativity, but now price action suggests that bulls are tired, exhausted and close to waving the white flag. Although the bias towards Bitcoin is currently tilted to the downside, lessons of the past have taught investors how inherently volatile and erratic the cryptocurrency can be.

Focusing on the technical picture, there seems to be a painful struggle for prices to keep above the psychological $10,000 support level. A break below $10,000 may invite a further decline back toward $9000, $8400 and $8000, respectively. Alternatively, bulls need to push prices back above $11,900 to jump back into the game.

Dollar pressured despite Trump remarks

The Dollar found itself under renewed selling pressure during Friday’s trading session despite US President Donald Trump stating that he expects the currency to get “stronger and stronger”. It seems that comments from Mnuchin stating a weaker Dollar is “good” for American trade, still has a lot of weight and this is reflected in the Dollar’s heavily bearish price action.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index remains firmly bearish on the daily charts. A breakdown and daily close below 89.00 could open a clean path towards 88.50 and 88.00, respectively.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

The Euro punched above 1.2500 during Thursday’s trading session after Mario Draghi stated that economic data indicated “solid and broad” growth. Bulls were injected with further inspiration to propel the Euro higher, after Draghi expressed optimism over inflation potentially rising in the medium term.

While concerns were raised over exchange volatility causing some uncertainty which “required monitoring”, the overall tone of the ECB meeting remained hawkish-consequently boosting the Euro. From a technical standpoint, the EURUSD remains bullish on the daily charts. A breakout and daily close above 1.2500 could encourage an incline higher towards 1.2560 and 1.2600, respectively. In an alternative scenario, a failure for prices to keep above 1.2500 could trigger a decline back to 1.2440 and 1.2370, respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

A severely depressed US Dollar has strongly supported Gold this week, with the yellow metal currently trading above $1355 during early trading on Friday. The fact that the Dollar remains under pressure, despite Donald Trump recently backing a stronger currency, continues to highlight the lack of buying sentiment. With the Greenback likely to remain on the back foot in the near term, Gold has further upside potential. Taking a look at the technical picture, the yellow metal is heavily bullish on the daily charts. A weekly close above $1360 could invite a further appreciation higher towards $1375.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

The dramatic plunge in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies over the past two days erased almost $300 billion dollars in total market cap. Investors who bought Bitcoin around its peak of $20,000 would have suffered the most as the price fell below $10,000 on Wednesday. It is even more painful for people who decided to borrow money and buy the digital currency, fearing that they would miss the greatest opportunity ever in financial markets.

South Korea and China regulators were the ones to be blamed after they signaled plans to crack down on cryptocurrency trading. In 2017 cryptocurrencies were resilient to such news, particularly after China decided to shut down exchanges dealing with digital currencies in September. Back then, the bitcoin price plunged more than 30% from $4,900 to below $2,900. Three months later, it managed to march towards $20,000, suggesting that such actions attracted more investors. Given that traders and investors may always find a way to circumvent local restrictions, in theory, restrictions should have a limited impact in the longer run. However, when the fight becomes global against cryptocurrencies, this should become a serious warning signal.

Finding a fair value in cryptocurrencies is an impossible mission, as animal spirits will remain the key driver. Most people who were buying bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies most recently, are not using them for transactions, but holding them in the expectation of profiting from the endless rising price. Whether the animal spirits have already released their grip, remains to be seen and cannot be ascertained from a two day slump.

Brick and mortar stores have been very slow to accept cryptocurrencies as a method of payment. This is what worries me most. If we don’t see growth in their acceptance as payment method, then it is not serving its true purpose.   

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

The USD surged back into focus today as markets were more upbeat about the USD and the prospects for the future. This came on the back of a crypto currency pullback that sent some investors panicking, but for the majority of traders the USD was the big winner today when it came to the bulls. The beige book was also released today, and while nothing major was really said it did note that US growth continues to look steady, and the general outlook for 2018 is increasingly positive for the majority of firms. Adding further to this was of course the US Industrial Production m/m figures which came in at 0.9% (0.45% exp), so more than double what analysts had predicted. It was also a nice turn of events given that the previous month had a reading of -0.12% which put some pressure on the USD.

The standout pair today was of course the USDJPY which shot back up the charts before hitting resistance at 111.113, but in the last hour has managed to break through and is looking all the more bullish. Traders will now be focused on the 200 day moving average which does tend to slow down bullish and bearish pressure, with the prospect of getting to resistance at 111.944 if it does push through the MA. There is also the prospect of a trend line forming as can be seen on the charts so markets will be looking to see if there is much weight in that as well. If the USD sell off does indeed continue though then support levels can be found at 110.202 and 109.385 on the charts, with expectations that it would be hard to reach 109 unless the bears are really taking things apart.

The upcoming news on Australia is also worth watching as well, given that employment figures are due out shortly. Many analysts are expecting the unemployment rate to remain the same, but if we do see a drop it could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to be more hawkish. One thing that is interesting is also the climb in the AUDUSD, which will most likely get some comments from the RBA regarding the price levels which are well above expectations when it comes to a trade weighted index. So there could be some jaw boning come the next meeting. Nevertheless, for now the focus is certainly on the AUDUSD and the employment figures due out shortly.

A stronger than expected reading could see the AUDUSD shoot up to 0.8123 as risk sentiment has been positive for the AUD so far. Further extensions higher than that are likely to find the next level at 0.8234. Support levels can also be found at 0.7926 and 0.7864 as well, but the 80 cent mark will be a tough ask to beat unless we do see that positive employment data. 

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.