ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

อังคาร, มิถุนายน 3, 2025

USD/CHF bounces off six-week lows of 0.8155 and surges past the 0.8200 figure as the Greenback is boosted by solid US jobs data, which is pushing the pair above its opening price by 0.26%.

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Although the leg-up could rise and test the May 29 high at 0.8347, it would remain shy of turning the trend sideways.This means that the series of successive lower highs and lower lows would be intact unless the USD/CHF clears the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8351. Once achieved, the next key resistance level would be 0.8400, and the May 12 high at 0.8475.Conversely, a drop below 0.8200 could expose the 0.8100 mark, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) lows hit on April 21 at 0.8083. If that level is surpassed, the next stop would be the 0.8000 figure.USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

Silver price trimmed some of its Monday’s 5% gains, edging down 0.52% on Tuesday, with the grey metal trading near the $34.50 area, stuck to the highs of the current week.

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Upbeat economic data in the United States (US) pushed XAG/USD under $34.00, but buyers emerged and lifted the non-yielding metal.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver price maintains its bullish bias despite retreating somewhat during the session and remains above the October 29 swing high of $34.54, which is seen as the first support level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are in control; however, they need to overcome the next key resistance level, which is seen at $35.00. Once cleared, Silver would be poised to test the February 29, 2012, high of $37.49.Conversely, a daily close of XAG/USD below the March 28 peak of $34.58 would likely result in a decline towards $34.00. In the event of further weakness, the next support level would be the May 22 peak, which has since turned into support at $33.69.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is erasing some of its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, after experiencing a positive surge in bullish momentum on Monday.

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AUD/USD slips to Fibonacci support as the US Dollar recovers.The US labour market remains in focus, with Wednesday’s ADP numbers expected to provide insight into the health of the US private sector.Psychological resistance firms at 0.6500 as AUD/USD remains vulnerable to the key psychological level that is proving difficult to break.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is erasing some of its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, after experiencing a positive surge in bullish momentum on Monday.After gaining 1% in the previous session, the AUD/USD price pair's failure to reclaim the 0.6500 psychological level has enabled bears to drive it back toward a critical level of Fibonacci support near 0.6464.AUD/USD daily chartThis level corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the March 2020 to February 2021 move, which has provided a critical level of support and resistance for historical moves.AUD/USD continues to monitor the US labour market in search of clues on the Fed’s next moveAs broader economic and geopolitical risks continue to drive demand for the US Dollar (USD) and its major counterparts, such as the Australian Dollar, the economic calendar remains key for near-term price action.The main focus for a large portion of the year has been on the monetary policy divergence between global central banks. For the Reserve Bank of Australia, the release of the RBA Meeting Minutes on Tuesday reiterated the central bank’s commitment to monitoring trade developments and broader risks before committing to keeping interest rates on hold in upcoming meetings.While the cautious tone of the RBA and the hawkish tone reflected by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have provided a headwind for AUD/USD bulls, interest rates have been largely priced in. Instead, focus remains on how the US labour market is performing under current circumstances, which could alter the near-term expectations for the Fed. With Tuesday's JOLTS data showing that the number of job openings in the United States (US) rose above analyst forecasts in April, Wednesday’s ADP numbers serve as an additional catalyst for the US Dollar. These figures, scheduled for 12:15 GMT, provide insight into the health of the US private sector, which is expected to show an increase of 115,000 jobs added in April. The release comes two days before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, which serves as a key barometer for the US labour market and interest rate expectations.At the time of writing, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 54.4% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged within the 4.25% to 4.50% range in June and July. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

EUR/USD retreats after hitting a six-week peak of 1.1454 on Tuesday amid increasing concerns of market participants regarding the trade war ignited by the United States (US). The Greenback’s appreciation weighs on the pair, which trades at 1.1379, down 0.52%.

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The Greenback’s appreciation weighs on the pair, which trades at 1.1379, down 0.52%.Wall Street remains in the green as news emerged that US President Donald Trump is reportedly set to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, according to Reuters sources.Data from the United States lifted the US Dollar (USD), which has been battered and lost nearly 2% this week, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). April’s US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) was better than expected, hinting that the labor market is solid. Meanwhile, Factory Orders fell sharply in April as manufacturing activity is pressured due to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.Uncertainty about US trade policies is also a reason behind the decline of the EUR/USD pair. The White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the trade offer deadlines can confirm the letter is authentic and on track to good deals. She added that President Trump will sign an executive order to double tariffs on steel and aluminum on Tuesday, which will take effect on Wednesday.Across the pond, the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data for May fell below the European Central Bank (ECB) objective. This reaffirms expectations that the ECB might cut rates this week, a path that began last June.In the Eurozone, the docket will feature the European Central Bank monetary policy decision and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. In the US, the schedule is packed with employment data, with the ADP National Employment Change for May awaited on Wednesday, followed by Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 31 and May’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures.EUR/USD daily market movers: Euro retreats below 1.1400 on US JOLTS reportEUR/USD uptrend remains intact, but it would be adrift to US and Eurozone economic data during the week.The US JOLTS Job Openings unexpectedly rose to 7.39 million in April, up from 7.20 million (revised) in March, defying expectations for a drop to 7.10 million, signaling ongoing labor market resilience.US Factory orders dropped 3.7% in April, down from a 4.3% jump in March, the US Commerce Department revealed on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Reuters expected orders to drop by 3.1%.Federal Reserve officials crossed the wires. Governor Lisa Cook said that the policy is well-positioned for a range of scenarios and anticipates higher inflation and slower activity due to tariffs. Chicago’s Fed President, Austan Goolsbee, said the Fed has to wait and see if the impact of tariffs on inflation is small or big.The Eurozone HICP in May fell by 1.9%, below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in eight months. Excluding volatile items, the so-called core HICP fell by 2.3% YoY, down from 2.7% in the previous month.Financial market players had fully priced in the expectation that the ECB would reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2% at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD cracks below 1.1400, bears eye 1.1300EUR/USD is upward biased, as depicted by the daily chart, despite the ongoing pullback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, but it begins to show signs that it’s losing steam, opening the door for a deeper retracement.If EUR/USD falls below the June 2 daily low of 1.1344, it could clear the path to challenge the 1.1300 level. A breach of the latter would expose the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1278, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1218. On further weakness, expect a test of 1.1200.Conversely, if EUR/USD climbs past 1.1400,buyers could test the weekly peak of 1.1454, followed by the April 21 year-to-date (YTD) peak at 1.1573. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The British Pound (GBP) is trading flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, edging slightly lower from its intraday high while remaining within Monday’s range.

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The GBP/USD pair holds steady as the US Dollar eases slightly from a six-week low, with market participants eyeing upcoming US economic data and digesting fresh commentary from Bank of England (BoE) officials following Tuesday’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings.At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3521 during the late American session, paring some of Monday’s gains amid a lack of clear directional drivers. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is staging a mild recovery after Monday’s drop to a six-week low, supported by upbeat JOLTS Job Openings data. The index has climbed back above the 99.00 mark, hovering near Monday’s high and last seen trading around 99.23.Earlier on Tuesday, Bank of England officials appeared before Parliament to offer fresh insight into the central bank’s policy outlook during the Monetary Policy Report Hearings. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that interest rates are likely to head lower, but stressed that the path ahead is increasingly uncertain. “I think the path remains downwards, but how far and how quickly is now shrouded in a lot more uncertainty,” Bailey noted, citing heightened global trade tensions and their potential to disrupt investment and economic growth.Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, a centrist on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), told lawmakers that she supported the May rate cut even in the absence of external trade shocks, reinforcing the BoE’s bias toward easing. However, divisions within the MPC remain clear—Swati Dhingra pushed for a deeper cut, warning of the drag from tight policy, while Catherine Mann, an external member of the MPC who opposed the May rate cut, said the labor market appeared to be cooling less than she had anticipated back in February, when she supported a more aggressive half-point reduction.Overall, the BoE hearings revealed that while interest rates are likely to decrease, there is no clear consensus on how quickly this should occur. Some members are concerned that inflation may persist, while others believe that keeping rates too high for too long could harm the economy. With opinions clearly split, the central bank is likely to take a cautious, data-driven approach in the months ahead. BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading in a tight range against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, following the Greenback's recovery from Monday’s sell-off.

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The results came in above the estimated 7.1 million increase and higher than March's 7.2 million increase.Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lisa Cook commented on the current state of the US economy. In her speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, she stated that: "I see the US economy as still being in a solid position, but heightened uncertainty poses risks to both price stability and unemployment." Although this comment alone may seem to reiterate the Fed’s hawkish tone, Cook also stated that "The resulting policy decisions may look quite different from those that would be optimal under certainty."These comments reaffirm the Fed’s commitment to maintaining a cautious balance between economic growth and price stability. For the Fed’s next move, job data released throughout this week remains key, with emphasis on Friday’s NFP numbers.Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN stalls with prices above 19.20The release of the JOLTS data has helped ease fears surrounding a softening labour market in the United States, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to deviate from its hawkish monetary policy stance in the near term.Factory Orders, released on Tuesday, reflected a 3.7% MoM decline in April, missing analyst forecasts of a 3% contraction. Although the data came in well below the 3.4% increase in March, tariffs implemented in early April played a major role in influencing demand for goods from US manufacturers. For this reason, the economic data print had a limited influence on the momentum of the US Dollar.On Wednesday, the ADP Employment data will be released at 12:15 GMT, reflecting the number of jobs added to the US private sector in May. Analysts expect the report to show that the private sector added 115,000 jobs last month, nearly double the 62,000 added in April.Friday’s NFP figures are expected to show that 130,000 new jobs were added to the US economy in May, down from 177,000 in April.Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, reflecting a resilient US labour market.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants are currently pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut in September. For June and July meetings, the expectation is that the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate at the current range of 4.25%-4.50%.On Thursday, Mexico will release the Consumer Confidence data for May, which gauges how individuals and consumers in Mexico perceive the economy's resilience in the face of current economic risks, as well as their expectations for near-term growth prospects. With April’s reading of 45.5 serving as the benchmark, any upside or downside surprises could further influence the direction of the Mexican Peso.Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN remains conflicted above psychological supportUSD/MXN is currently trading below the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing near-term support at 19.31. With the 20-day SMA standing at 19.38, the 19.20 psychological level has become a support level.For the pair’s next move, technical and fundamental headwinds remain in place.A break above the 20-day SMA would bring the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the October–February rally (near 19.58) into focus, and a successful move beyond that could open the door to the 23.6% Fib of the April–May decline around 19.63. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 45, indicating that bearish momentum is fading, although it has not yet signaled bullish strength. USD/MXN daily chartOn the downside, a break below the 10-day SMA and psychological support at 19.30 would reassert bearish control, potentially pushing prices down to prior resistance at 19.28 and the May low at 19.18. This makes the current range a critical battleground for short-term direction. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose on Tuesday, bolstered by endless optimism in the tech sector. AI rally frontrunner Nvidia (NVDA) led a chip-based market advance, surpassing Microsoft’s market cap for the first time since January.

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AI rally frontrunner Nvidia (NVDA) led a chip-based market advance, surpassing Microsoft’s market cap for the first time since January. An unexpected but welcome upswing in JOLTS Job Openings in April helped further bolster investor feelings, who shrugged off a worse-than-expected contraction in Factory Orders during the same period.Traders lean into bets of another Trump trade pivotInvestors continue to bank on an eventual trade deal between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, despite still-escalating trade tensions as the two sides lob accusations of violating preliminary trade agreement terms. Trump administration staff continue to insist that Trump and Xi will be speaking directly soon, but specific details remain limited.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed on Tuesday that the Trump team had sent a hardball letter to key US trade partners, as reported earlier this week. The letter demands that countries put their “best offer” on the table in terms of trade deals by Wednesday for the Trump team to consider. President Trump’s temporary delay of his own “reciprocal tariffs” package is set to expire in early July, and despite insistence that multiple major trade deals are “ready to be announced”, very little in the way of tariff-averting trade agreements have been forthcoming.Despite upbeat market sentiment, policymakers remain cautiousFederal Reserve (Fed) policymakers remain apprehensive about the future state of the US economy in a post-tariff environment, and the Fed’s latest discount rate meeting minutes reveal much of the same stance from a growing number of US business operators. It’s still too soon to see much in the way of immediate tariff impacts; however, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has downgraded its growth forecast for the US economy this year to 1.6% from 2.2%.JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.391M in April, flouting the forecast backslide to 7.1M. On the other side of the data coin, US Factory Orders contracted more than expected in April, falling 3.7% MoM, their lowest figure in 15 months. The previous month also saw a sharp downward revision, slipping to 3.4% from the initial print of 4.3%.US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results are due on Thursday, and investors are hoping for a slight recovery in aggregate business operator sentiment. May’s ISM Services PMI print is forecast to rise to 52.0 from April’s 51.6.Dow Jones price forecastDespite an intraday rise on tech and trade hopes, the Dow Jones remains in a congestion zone between 42,000 and 43,000. The major equity index recaptured 42,500 after testing the low side earlier this week, and investors continue to tilt toward the steady side.The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still trading on the high side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,675. However, technical oscillators are leaking into overbought territory, which could open the door for a technical correction to the downside.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

After bottoming out in fresh multi-week troughs, the US Dollar (USD) managed to regain composure and advance markedly on turnaround Tuesday. The recovery, however, did not offset concerns over the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the US economy and global trade.

After bottoming out in fresh multi-week troughs, the US Dollar (USD) managed to regain composure and advance markedly on turnaround Tuesday. The recovery, however, did not offset concerns over the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the US economy and global trade.Here's what to watch on Wednesday, June 4: The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded from six-week lows in the vicinity of 98.50 on Tuesday, eventually regaining the 99.00 barrier and beyond amid marginal losses in US yields. The ADP Employment Change report will be at the centre of the debate, seconded by the ISM Services PMI, the final S&P Global Services PMI, MBA Mortgage Applications, the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil supplies, and the Fed Beige Book. In addition, the Fed’s Bostic and Cook are expected to speak.EUR/USD could not sustain an earlier move to multi-week tops past 1.1450, slipping back to the sub-1.1400 region as the session progressed. once again the 1.1400 barrier and well beyond in response to the intense sell-off in the US Dollar. The final HCB Services PMI in Germany and the euro bloc area is due.GBP/USD came under renewed selling pressure, fading part of Monday’s marked gains and briefly piercing the 1.3500 support. The final S&P Global Services PMI will only be released across the Channel.Renewed weakness hurt the Japanese Yen, motivating USD/JPY to trade with marked gains north of the 143.00 hurdle. The final Jibun Bank Services PMIs is next on tap.AUD/USD faltered just ahead of the key resistance at 0.6500 the figure amid the strong rebound in the greenback. The Ai Group survey will be published, along with the final S&P Global Services PMI and the Q1 GDP Growth Rate.Prices of WTI added to Monday’s gains near the $64.00 mark as traders continued to assess the recent OPEC+ meeting and the potential impacts of US tariffs, while geopolitical concerns added to the combo.The rebound in the US Dollar challenged the recent advance in Gold prices, sparking a knee-jerk to the $3,330 zone per troy ounce. Silver prices shed part of Monday’s sharp advance, revisiting the $34.00 zone per ounce.

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) discount rate meeting minutes from April 7, 28, and May 8 revealed that policymakers are increasingly uneasy about looming economic impacts, mostly from US trade policy.

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) discount rate meeting minutes from April 7, 28, and May 8 revealed that policymakers are increasingly uneasy about looming economic impacts, mostly from US trade policy. Despite overall steady economic conditions, tariff uncertainty is continuing to weigh heavily on business operators, who are preparing backup plans and slowing their pace of investment and spending.Key highlightsOverall, Reserve Bank directors noted considerable uncertainty about the outlook.

While most directors described recent economic conditions as generally stable, they also expressed concern about the potential impact of evolving trade and other policies on economic activity, prices, and employment.

In light of elevated uncertainty, many directors had observed consumers and businesses becoming more cautious about their spending and future plans.

Several directors commented on the expected price pressures related to tariffs, including higher prices for consumers.

Labor market conditions remained healthy, with some directors noting low turnover and limited layoffs.

Some directors said businesses in their districts had indicated future staff reductions might be needed to absorb costs associated with tariffs and reduced government funding in certain sectors.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices continue their upward trajectory on Tuesday, marking the second day of gains. At the time of writing, WTI is hovering near Monday's high, trading around $63.06 per barrel, reflecting a nearly 2% increase on the day.

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At the time of writing, WTI is hovering near Monday's high, trading around $63.06 per barrel, reflecting a nearly 2% increase on the day. The rally reflects a mix of Canadian production disruptions, mounting geopolitical tensions, and a softer US Dollar (USD), all of which are providing a favorable backdrop for Crude bulls.Wildfires in Alberta have shut down close to 350,000 barrels per day of Oil production, equivalent to around 7% of the province’s total output. While not a massive hit to global supply, the disruption is significant enough to add fuel to the ongoing Oil price rally. The temporary closures, prompted by safety concerns near key Oil Sands sites, come at a time when markets are already on edge over geopolitical tensions.The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified with recent drone attacks on Russian airfields, followed by retaliatory strikes on Kyiv. These developments have reignited fears of potential disruptions to Russian Oil infrastructure. On Monday, Russia and Ukraine held their second round of direct peace talks following a sharp escalation in hostilities the previous day, but the discussions ended without significant progress.Meanwhile, mixed signals from Iran–US nuclear negotiations have also kept market participants on edge. An Iranian diplomat indicated that Tehran is poised to reject a US proposal aimed at resolving the decades-old nuclear standoff. Although the fifth round of talks in Rome last month yielded some progress, the outlook remains uncertain, limiting the potential return of sanctioned Iranian barrels to global markets.Adding to the bullish tone, a broadly weaker US Dollar is helping to lift commodity prices across the board. A softer Greenback makes US Dollar-denominated assets, such as Crude Oil, more affordable for foreign buyers, thereby increasing demand and further supporting WTI prices in the near term. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee fell in step with the Fed policymaker crowd on Tuesday, admitting that while things look good right now, policy uncertainty remains elevated at the hands of President Trump's whiplash tariff policies, and the Fed is beginning to brace f

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee fell in step with the Fed policymaker crowd on Tuesday, admitting that while things look good right now, policy uncertainty remains elevated at the hands of President Trump's whiplash tariff policies, and the Fed is beginning to brace for economic fallout from widespread tariffs.Key highlightsWe have to wait and see if tariffs have a big or small inflation impact.

We could see a direct tariff effect on prices within a month.

Slowdown related to tariffs might not show up for a while in the data.

All indicators point to stable and full employment.

Concerns that the dollar will stop being the world reserve currency look overstated.

Escalating unbounded trade war could spiral up the inflation rate.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Lisa D. Cook noted on Tuesday that although the US economy appears to be in a healthy place for the time being, the biggest economic threat to stability remains the Trump administration's trade policies.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Lisa D. Cook noted on Tuesday that although the US economy appears to be in a healthy place for the time being, the biggest economic threat to stability remains the Trump administration's trade policies.Key highlightsThe Fed's monetary policy is well-positioned for a range of scenarios.

Trade policies create risks for Fed inflation and job mandates.

Trade policy may make it harder to get inflation lower.

Cook sees evidence trade policy is now affecting the economy.

The economy is in a solid position amid trade policy risks.

Cook anticipates economic growth will slow this year.

Firms may be more willing to raise prices now relative to past.

Cook expects increased inflation and reduced activity because of tariffs.

Cook warns tariffs could lead to stagflation environment.

I see challenges to Fed mandates from tariffs but we need to see how it plays out.

The Euro (EUR) has been gaining strength against the Japanese Yen (JPY), traditionally seen as a safe haven, on Tuesday. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY heads toward 164.00 as demand for the safe-haven Yen weakens.Inflation data out of the Eurozone misses estimates ahead of Thursday’s ECB rate decision, with a 25-basis-point rate cut already priced into the Euro.Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains committed to maintaining a careful balance between interest rates and economic growth, limiting the Yen’s gains.The Euro (EUR) has been gaining strength against the Japanese Yen (JPY), traditionally seen as a safe haven, on Tuesday. At the time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support level of 163.31, with resistance firming at 164.00.This follows the release of Eurozone inflation data, which was softer than anticipated, and cautious signals from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor regarding future interest rate expectations.On Tuesday, the preliminary Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Eurozone indicated continued easing for May. The core HICP rose by 2.3% YoY, down from 2.7% in April and beneath the forecasted 2.5% increase. As inflation trends closer to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2%, the ECB appears poised to consider a rate cut during its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Analysts are factoring in the likelihood of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut before solidifying their outlook for interest rates for the rest of the year.During the Asian trading session, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda addressed market participants, maintaining a hawkish position and hinting at possible interest rate hikes in response to rising inflation. According to Reuters, he stated that the “BoJ anticipates continuing to raise rates if underlying inflation reaches the projected 2%.” However, he also emphasized that tariffs and trade disputes could pose risks to the economic outlook, highlighting the need for a careful balance between monetary policy and economic growth. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Gold price trims some of its Monday gains as it edges down over 1% on Tuesday following jobs data from the United States (US), which reveals that the labor market remains tight. At the same time, the overall strength of the Greenback weighed on the non-yielding metal.

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At the same time, the overall strength of the Greenback weighed on the non-yielding metal. The XAU/USD trades at $3,348 after hitting a daily high of $3,392.Investors' mood turned optimistic following the release of the latest US Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed that job vacancies rose sharply in April. The data was positive, ahead of a busy week with jobs data releases awaited. On Wednesday, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) National Employment Change for May is expected to improve, followed by Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll numbers.Bullion prices retreated on rumors of a possible call between US President Donald Trump and his counterpart, Chinese President Xi Jinping. Last week, Trump announced that China had violated a trade agreement reached in Switzerland. He then doubled down on worldwide steel and aluminum tariffs, which were set to increase from 25% to 50% and take effect on June 4.The European Commission is pressuring the United States to lower tariffs. Conversely, the Trump administration urged trading partners to submit revised offers by Wednesday to speed up trade talks.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that the best monetary policy approach now entails “patience,” and he still sees just one rate cut this year.Gold daily market movers: US Dollar stages a comeback, pushes Gold lowerGold price disappoints traders as the US Dollar recovers. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six currencies, rises 0.52% to 99.22.US Treasury bond yields are rising, with the US 10-year Treasury note yielding up two basis points to 4.462%. US real yields have followed suit and are also climbing by two basis points to 2.132%.US JOLTS Job Openings in April rose by 7.39 million, from a revised 7.2 million in March. Economists estimated a decrease to 7.10 million vacancies.High tensions between the US and China could spur another leg-up in Gold prices. Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on base metals could be inflation prone, increasing precious metals’ appeal. On the other hand, an agreement between Washington and Beijing will likely result in easing tensions and lower Bullion prices.Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 48.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Source: Prime Market TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold surges past $3,350 with bulls targeting $3,400Gold price uptrend remains intact despite retreating somewhat from around $3,400. Due to XAU/USD’s overall bias, the ongoing leg down could be an excellent opportunity for buyers, who may target $3,400. Once surpassed, this level clears the path to test key resistance levels.The first support level to emerge is the May 7 peak at $3,438. A breach of the latter exposes $3,450 as a psychological level, followed by the all-time high (ATH) at $3,500.Conversely, if Gold falls beneath $3,300, sellers could send XAU/USD on a tailspin toward testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,235, followed by the April 3 high turned support at $3,167. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Euro (EUR) is suffering a setback against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on Tuesday, with prices falling to the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.8415.

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On an annual basis, the core HICP advanced 2.3% agains a 2.7% growth in April, missing forecasts of 2.5%. With inflation falling closer to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target, the ECB looks poised to cut interest rates at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Analysts are pricing in the potential for a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut before committing to a clearer rate outlook for the remainder of the year.For the Bank of England (BoE), a resurgence in inflation and better-than-expected economic data has provided more room for the BoE to hold back on additional rate cuts at the June 19 meeting, which could provide additional support for the Pound Sterling this week.EUR/GBP grapples with Moving Average supportAs illustrated on the daily chart below, a move below the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) could provide bears with the opportunity to drive prices back to the key psychological level of 0.8400, opening the door for a potential retest of the May low at 0.8356.In contrast, a move back above 0.8415 and above 0.8428 may allow bulls to move toward Monday's high near 0.8450.EUR/GBP daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/CAD pair edging lower during the American session to trade around 1.3710.

USD/CAD dips toward 1.3710 despite stronger US JOLTS data as traders turn cautious ahead of Wednesday’s BoC decision.Technical setup favors bears with USD/CAD stuck in a descending channel; 1.3700 acts as short-term support.Momentum indicators suggest exhaustion with the RSI near oversold levels and the MACD losing its bearish momentum.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/CAD pair edging lower during the American session to trade around 1.3710. The pair had stabilized earlier in the day as the Greenback attempted a mild rebound, but the pair lost steam despite a stronger-than-expected JOLTS Job Openings report. Market participants remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) rate decision on Wednesday, with expectations leaning toward the central bank holding interest rates steady.Moving on to the technicals, the broader picture still favors the bears. USD/CAD has been locked in a steady downtrend, carving out lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel since March. On the downside, immediate support is seen around 1.3700, which has emerged as a short-term floor during recent sessions. A sustained break below this level could pave the way toward stronger support near 1.3600, which aligns with the lower boundary of the channel. A clean breach of that zone would likely trigger a fresh wave of selling, potentially exposing the 1.3520–1.3500 area next.On the upside, any recovery would first need to clear the 21-day Exponential Moving Average at 1.3832 — a dynamic resistance level that has capped recent rallies. A break above the channel top and the 1.3850 region would be a more meaningful signal that bulls are regaining control, possibly opening the path toward the 1.3950 handle.That said, momentum indicators suggest that the bearish momentum may be starting to fade. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently sitting just above the oversold threshold near 35. While this level isn’t extreme, it does signal that selling pressure could be nearing exhaustion.  The RSI has remained below 50 for most of the past month, indicating that sellers have had the upper hand for a while. Some buyers may start to test the waters. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still in negative territory, but the histogram bars have been shrinking — a sign that the downward momentum is weakening. This flattening suggests the bears are losing steam, and the pair could be setting up for a short-term bounce if the 1.3700 psychological level continues to hold.

New Zealand GDT Price Index declined to -1.6% from previous -0.9%

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic indicated that a robust economy provides the US central bank with the opportunity to consider the effects of tariffs on inflation and growth, while also expressing openness to the potential for a single interest rate cut later this year.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic indicated that a robust economy provides the US central bank with the opportunity to consider the effects of tariffs on inflation and growth, while also expressing openness to the potential for a single interest rate cut later this year.Key QuotesBest monetary policy approach now entails 'patience'.Given the ‘healthy’ economy, the Fed has time to see how uncertainty resolves.'I am in no hurry to adjust our policy stance.'Still sees a possible path to one interest rate cut this year, depending on the economy.'Tough call' to say if Fed would be cutting rates absent trade uncertainty.Says he is 'very cautious' about jumping to cutting rates.Says he needs to see more progress on lowering inflation before supporting a rate cut.Not declaring victory on inflation yet.Say there is still a way to go on inflation; core prices are 'still an issue'.Unclear right now how tariffs will affect the inflation outlook.Hard data has yet to reflect the 'gloomier' sentiment mood.Job market appears broadly healthy, with some signs of weakness.No sign yet tariffs have boosted inflation.Recession is not in his forecast right now.

United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) above forecasts (49.1) in June: Actual (49.2)

United States Factory Orders (MoM) below expectations (-3%) in April: Actual (-3.7%)

United States JOLTS Job Openings registered at 7.391M above expectations (7.1M) in April

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is edging lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as market participants await the release of the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, scheduled for 14:00 GMT.

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The main scheduled risk event this week for employment data and the US Dollar is Friday’s employment data, which will include the latest unemployment rate for May, with JOLTS indicating what may be revealed in Friday’s report.Monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the BoJ remains in the spotlight for the USD/JPY pairWith monetary policy divergence remaining a key theme for the USD/JPY major currency pair, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has maintained a restrictive stance toward interest rates, remaining committed to achieving its objective of restoring price stability by maintaining an objective core inflation target of 2%.However, the other side of its dual mandate focuses on maintaining full employment, which is considered to exist when the Unemployment Rate is generally at 4%.That data will be provided on Friday, upon the release of the May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is a key driver of market volatility.But with the labour market recently showing signs of slowing and market participants expecting the Fed to cut rates in September, any additional signs of a weaker US labour market could provide some support for the Japanese Yen (JPY).While the Fed is under pressure to move away from its high-interest-rate environment, Japan is being encouraged to turn away from its ultra-loose monetary policy stance that continues to favour low interest rates, with its benchmark rate currently at 0.5%.With the Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, addressing markets during the Asian session, the BoJ maintained a hawkish stance, opening the door to the potential increase in interest rates in response to rising inflation. His comments, covered by Reuters, included a statement that the “BoJ expected to continue hiking rates if underlying inflation accelerates to 2% as projected.”USD/JPY rebounds off support, gaining ground above 143.00On the daily chart below, the USD/JPY pair experienced a rebound on Tuesday, allowing bulls to retest the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the April-May rally at 143.24. This level sits just above the key psychological threshold of 143.00, and a clear break above or below it could dictate the pair's next movement.USD/JPY daily chartAfter dropping below the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 143.66 on Monday, bearish momentum temporarily stalled, keeping prices above the important support level of 142.00. For a downside movement to gain traction, the pair would need to fall below the daily low of 142.38 and the May 27 low of 142.11, which could bring the 142.00 level into play.Conversely, if the USD/JPY continues its recovery, a move above the 61.8% retracement level and the 10-day SMA could pave the way to the midpoint of the April-May movement at 144.27. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, giving back  Monday’s gains as the Greenback stabilizes ahead of key US labor market data.

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The US Dollar is finding support after dropping to a six-week low in the previous day, with traders awaiting the JOLTS Job Openings report. The USD/INR pair is hovering above Monday's high, at the time of writing, trading around 85.65. The upward move reflects growing pressure on the Rupee, driven by rising Crude Oil prices, lackluster equity performance, and foreign fund outflows.Indian equities extended losses on Tuesday, with the BSE Sensex falling 636.24 points to close at 80,737.51, while the Nifty 50 declined 174.10 points to settle at 24,542.50. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the cash segment, pulling out ₹2,589.47 crore worth of equities on Monday, according to exchange data.Looking ahead, market focus will shift to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled for June 4-6. The central bank is widely expected to deliver a third consecutive 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut, which would bring the benchmark repo rate down to 5.75%. The RBI had previously lowered the policy rate by 25 bps in February to 6.25% and again in April to 6.00%, as it continues to support economic growth amid softening inflation and global uncertainty.India’s recent macroeconomic data paints a broadly positive picture. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.16% in April from 3.34% in March, comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target, thereby strengthening the case for further monetary easing. At the same time, GDP expanded by a robust 7.4% YoY in Q1, supported by strong momentum in domestic demand and industrial activity.Commenting on the policy outlook, Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge Ratings, said, “In this environment of easing inflation and heightened global uncertainties, we expect the MPC to maintain its focus on supporting the ongoing recovery in the growth momentum. The rate-cutting cycle that began in February will likely continue, with a further 25-bps reduction in the repo rate expected at the June meeting, while retaining an accommodative stance.”Meanwhile, in a more aggressive call, a recent State Bank of India (SBI) research report suggested that the RBI may opt for a 50-bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting to stimulate the credit cycle and counterbalance external uncertainties. The report noted that commercial banks’ credit growth slowed to 9.8% as of May 16, against last year’s growth of 19.5%. Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee? The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee? India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee? Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee? India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) down to 4.9% in May 30 from previous 6.1%

Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in April

Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) registered at -0.3%, below expectations (0.2%) in April

Gold prices are experiencing a mild pullback after testing their highest levels since May 8 on Monday, as investors continue to digest trade-related headlines, including US President Donald Trump’s request that countries submit their trade offers by Wednesday and the possibility of a call between Tr

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Gold price eases back to psychological support at $3,350 following Monday’s 2.80% surge.The US Dollar attempts a recovery, but lingering concerns over trade tensions limit gains.JOLTS Job Openings data becomes the focus as it could provide insight into the health of the US labour market.Gold prices are experiencing a mild pullback after testing their highest levels since May 8 on Monday, as investors continue to digest trade-related headlines, including US President Donald Trump’s request that countries submit their trade offers by Wednesday and the possibility of a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Looking at the US economic calendar, the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data report, scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT, will mark the start of a critical week of labor-related economic data. This report is expected to provide further insight into labor market conditions. Expectations are for the number of job openings in April to decrease to 7.1 million from 7.192 million in March.The release of the JOLTs data will be closely watched as it provides crucial signals regarding labor demand, which could influence the Fed's decision-making on interest rates. Job openings and labor turnover are key indicators for the Fed as it assesses whether economic conditions warrant a shift in its monetary policy stance.Additionally, Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee and Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak during the US session, offering further insights into the economic and interest rate outlook for the United States. Participants are eagerly awaiting any hints regarding when the Federal Reserve might begin to reduce interest rates again after keeping them unchanged for many months.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants are currently pricing in a 57% chance of a rate cut in September. For June and July meetings, the expectation is that the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate at the current range of 4.25%-4.50%.This data and commentary are crucial in shaping expectations for future monetary policy moves, especially as the Fed navigates the delicate balance between combating inflation and supporting employment growth.Gold daily digest: Softening ahead of employment data, Fed speakers and trade developments
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to hold a call this week, as announced on Monday by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. The call aims to address ongoing tensions between the US and China, which came under renewed pressure over the weekend.Trade tensions intensified on Friday, when Trump accused China of violating the trade agreement reached in Geneva on May 12. During the Geneva talks, both countries agreed to reduce tariff rates for a period of 90 days. China agreed to reduce restrictions on rare earth exports to the US, which are critical for several industries, including Artificial Intelligence and defense.In an interview with CNBC, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, "The Chinese are slow-rolling their compliance, which is completely unacceptable, and it has to be addressed." China responded by calling the allegations “groundless,” and there have been no reports of scheduled talks from Beijing this week.Trade negotiations between the US and China are critical for Gold’s valuation as the precious metal benefits from its safe-haven appeal during times of economic uncertainty. Thus, Gold is likely to benefit if there are increasing signs that talks are falling apart, while its price should decline if both countries are able to ease tensions.On Monday, Microsoft made headlines by announcing it would cut more than 300 jobs. This decision follows a previous announcement last month in which the tech giant revealed that it was trimming 6,000 positions as part of a broader cost-reduction initiative. These job cuts come days before May’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday, where 130K jobs are expected to have been added in May, down from 177K in April.Gold technical analysis: Finding support above $3,350Gold prices are currently trading above the psychological level of $3,350, which is providing near-term support for the precious metal. Following a 2.80% gain on Monday, prices broke above the upper-bound of the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, supporting a surge in bullish momentum. However, failure to retest $3,400, the next significant level of resistance required for a potential retest of the April $3,500 all-time high (ATH), limited the upside move.With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56, the momentum of the trend remains above the 50 neutral level, but is far from technically overbought.With prices still exhibiting signs of strength, the near-term trajectory may be further influenced by technical levels.For the upside potential, a break of $3,400 is crucial to reignite the momentum of the uptrend.On the downside, the upper bound of the triangle aligns with the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,324, with the $3,300 psychological level just below. At $3,293, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is providing an additional layer of support, a break of which could bring the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April move near $3,291.Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The US Dollar is posting moderate gains on Tuesday’s European session, reaching intra-day highs past the 0.8200 psychological level, after bouncing up from at 0.8155, six-week lows.

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In Switzerland, May’s Consumer Prices Index fell to deflation levels for the first time since 2021. The monthly CPI ticked up 0.1% after a flat reading, as expected, but yearly inflation contracted 0.1%, cementing hopes that the SNB will cut its benchmark rate to zero at its June meeting.

In the US, data from Monday confirmed that the tariff uncertainty is taking its toll on the manufacturing sector. The ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 48.3 in May from 48.8 in April against market expectations of an increase to 49.5. The ISM report also highlighted longer delivery times, spurring concerns about potential shortages in some products.

The market will be attentive to April´s Factory Orders today for a more accurate assessment of Trump’s “Liberation Day” in factory activity. New orders are expected to have fallen at a 3% rate in the month, following a 3.4% increase in the previous month. The risk is skewed to the downside for the USDollar.

Apart from that, US JOLTS Job Openings are expected to show that demand for employment remained fairly steady, with 7.1 million openings in April, after the 7.19 million seen in the previous month. These figures will frame Wednesday’s ADP report and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release. The Dollar would need strong employment figures to ease concerns from factory data. 
SNB FAQs What is the Swiss National Bank? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year. How does the Swiss National Bank interest-rate policy affect the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. Does the Swiss National Bank intervene in the forex market? Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses. When does the Swiss National Bank Governing Council decide on monetary policy? The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) slips against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, retreating from recent highs to 0.6460 as traders react to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious tone and softer-than-expected current account figures.

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AUD/USD is hovering near 0.6458 at the time of writing, trimming Monday’s solid 1% rally. While the pair remains confined to a narrow range since late April, repeated rejections near the 0.6500 psychological barrier continue to cap the upside. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is staging a mild rebound after Monday’s dip, holding near a six-week low around 98.95, adding to the downside pressure on the Aussie.The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) May meeting, released earlier, revealed that the board considered a 50-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut but ultimately opted for a more measured 25-bps reduction, lowering the cash rate to 3.85% from 4.10%. This decision was made to maintain policy predictability amid heightened global uncertainties around US tariffs.Speaking in Brisbane on Tuesday, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter struck a cautious tone, warning that rising global trade uncertainty could weigh heavily on investment, output, and employment. “The unpredictability and unprecedented nature of the current situation makes it hard to be precise on the size of the impact,” Hunter noted, adding that the central bank will be closely monitoring how these developments unfold in order to adjust its policy stance accordingly.The RBA also noted that while inflation had returned to the target range of 2.9% YoY and is projected to ease further to 2.6% by the end of 2025, it is still too early to shift to an expansionary policy stance. According to a Reuters report, markets are currently pricing in a roughly 70% chance of another rate cut in July, although some analysts believe the central bank may hold off until second-quarter inflation data provides clearer direction.Looking ahead, traders will focus on a series of key macroeconomic releases. Australia’s Q1 GDP report, Industry Index and the S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs are all due on Wednesday and could offer fresh direction for the Aussie. On the US side, the JOLTS Job Openings data to be published later on Tuesday, and the highly anticipated Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be closely watched for further insight into the labor market and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next moves. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft, down marginally against the US Dollar (USD) but outperforming most of the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft, down marginally against the US Dollar (USD) but outperforming most of the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. BoJ maintains focus on reducing JGB purchases and raising rates"Fundamentals are supportive as market participants respond to BoJ Gov. Ueda’s latest speech in which he spoke of an intention to continue with a reduction in the pace of bond purchases and also maintained a bias to future rate hikes." "The speech is important, heading into the June 17 policy decision as market participants had turned cautious following the recent turbulence in Japan’s government bond market. The JGB market has since stabilized, and Japan’s latest 10 year bond auction saw its highest demand in 14 months." "Recent turbulence had followed a poor auction of 20 year bonds, and markets participants are now looking to the June 5 auction of 30 year debt."

Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a marginal 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and a relative performer among the G10 in an environment of mild, albeit broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a marginal 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and a relative performer among the G10 in an environment of mild, albeit broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. BoE Governor Bailey strikes cautiously neutral tone"Comments from BoE Gov. Bailey are providing some near-term headline risk and can be characterized as cautiously neutral with a focus on the near-term risk of inflation balanced against medium to longer term concerns about the outlook for the UK labor market. Fundamentally, UK-US yield spreads are offering support to GBP/USD.""GBP/USD is in a clear bull trend with a multimonth sequence of higher lows and higher highs following its recovery from its January low around 1.22. Its latest push has cleared fresh multi-year highs and its momentum remains bullish but well short of overbought levels, leaving ample room for further gains."

Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies, pulling back modestly from its overnight push to a fresh one month high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies, pulling back modestly from its overnight push to a fresh one month high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CPI disappoints the markets"The preliminary euro area CPI data for May have offered little in terms of support, with both headline and core delivering a slight disappointment to 1.9% y/y and 2.3% y/y, respectively (vs. expectations of 2.0% and 2.4%, respectively)." "From a slightly longer-term perspective, EUR/USD’s recent recovery has been fundamentally driven, with a notable turn in spreads over the past week or so. ECB rate expectations have generally stabilized, and markets have pared back their expectations for easing. The risk for Thursday’s ECB meeting is a neutral or hawkish cut, given the ECB’s unequivocally dovish messaging into a widely anticipated and fully priced 25bpt cut.""EUR/USD remains well supported with a push to fresh local highs in the mid-1.14s. The RSI is modestly bullish at 58 and remains well short of the overbought threshold at 70. The 50 day MA (1.1221) remains an important level of recent support and the multi-month trend remains bullish with a clear sequence of higher lows and higher highs. Near-term support is expected at 1.1350 and near-term resistance is limited ahead of the upper 1.15 area."

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has edged a little lower on the session, in line with its major currency peers. Spot may continue to range trade ahead of Wednesday’s BoC policy decision, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has edged a little lower on the session, in line with its major currency peers. Spot may continue to range trade ahead of Wednesday’s BoC policy decision, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Scope of USD gains still looks limited"We expect a hold and market pricing suggests only 20% probability of a cut. But policymakers have a lot to consider. Even while US tariff policy continues to evolve, the impact on the global economy is clear (the OECD today revised down its 2025 growth outlook for a second time this year—to 2.9%, from 3.3%)." "Wildfires continue to encroach on Alberta oil production which could be another unwelcome, if temporary, check on domestic growth. The CAD is trading a little stronger than our fair value estimate (1.3781) today which is a positive but may indicate limited room for further CAD gains at the moment unless markets find renewed motivation to sell the USD." "Another bounce from the upper 1.36s, leaving a potential 'hammer' signal on the daily chart Monday, has echoes of last Monday’s price action in funds which saw the USD push up to the mid/upper 1.38s before turning lower again. With the broader downtrend in the USD still well-entrenched across short-, medium– and long-term charts and oscillators, scope of USD gains still looks limited. Indeed, intraday price signals suggest better selling pressures has started to emerge ahead of 1.3745/50 resistance. Look for stiff resistance between 1.3825/50."

The US Dollar (USD) is tracking a little higher overall, consolidating the soft tone seen over the past few sessions as the Dollar Index (DXY) losses hold near recent lows, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is tracking a little higher overall, consolidating the soft tone seen over the past few sessions as the Dollar Index (DXY) losses hold near recent lows, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD consolidates but remains prone to losses on tariff,"Monday’s 'sell America' trade moderated over the course of yesterday’s session as the USD and Treasurys softened while stocks steadied. Stock futures are lower this morning while bonds have firmed a little. Overall USD sentiment has stabilized but, based on risk reversal pricing, remains bearish. The USD will struggle to improve while investors consider the implications of the president’s tax bill and tariff/trade uncertainty persists. Gold is trading a little lower today but continues to trade with a generally bullish technical bias." "US ISM data yesterday reflected slower overall activity and a weaker than expected headline index of 48.5 in May (from 48.7 in April), implying a third month of contraction in the sector. The key sub-indices were weak but still better than expected, however. New Orders rose to 47.6 (47.2) while Employment nudged up to 46.8 (46.5). The shocker was the Import index which plunged a little more than seven points in the month to 39.9, another reflection of the sharp fall in trade (after last week’s preliminary April trade data) amid tariff headwinds." "The hard data have really yet to show any impact from tariffs and—generally—positive US data surprises since mid-April suggest that either markets have overestimated their impact at this point, or the US economy is more resilient. You can add positive US economic data surprises to the list of things (rising yields, wider spreads) that have not helped the USD since 'Liberation Day'. Still, its about now that estimates (allowing for distribution and logistics lags) suggested the sharp fall off in US/ China trade should start being felt a bit more obviously in the US economy. Factory Orders and Jolts data could weigh on the USD if the data disappoint. The Fed’s Goolsbee, Cook and Logan (a non-voter) are speaking today. Australia releases Q1 GDP at 21.30ET."

US President Trump's announcement last Friday that US tariffs on Steel and Aluminum imports would be increased from 25% to 50% — with the higher tariffs being said to take effect tomorrow — initially caused further uncertainty on the base metal markets, with prices in the US rising sharply, Commerzb

US President Trump's announcement last Friday that US tariffs on Steel and Aluminum imports would be increased from 25% to 50% — with the higher tariffs being said to take effect tomorrow — initially caused further uncertainty on the base metal markets, with prices in the US rising sharply, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. Mood between the US and China has deteriorates again"The premium payable in the US for Aluminum jumped by 45% and yesterday reached a new high of $1,240 per ton. The price of Copper on the COMEX also rose significantly, as the increase in tariffs on Aluminum and Steel fueled concerns about future tariffs on Copper." "Elsewhere, however, prices initially came under pressure. After all, these ad hoc measures are reigniting fears of an escalation of the tariff conflict, especially as the mood between the US and China has deteriorated again in other areas and the EU has been quick to threaten counter-tariffs."

Another aspect of the Swiss Gold export data is worth mentioning: Gold shipments to the US slumped to 12.7 tons in April, while at the same time 63 tons of Gold were shipped from the US to Switzerland, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Another aspect of the Swiss Gold export data is worth mentioning: Gold shipments to the US slumped to 12.7 tons in April, while at the same time 63 tons of Gold were shipped from the US to Switzerland, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Gold shipments to the US slump in April "In the previous three months, a total of 449 tons of Gold had been shipped from Switzerland to the US. The reversal in direction is due to the development of COMEX Gold inventories. These had risen massively in the first three months of the year due to concerns about possible US import tariffs.""Since the beginning of April, there has been a continuous decline in COMEX stocks as Gold has been exempted from the tariffs."

US Dollar (USD) is likely to consolidate between 7.1920 and 7.2150. In the longer run, for now, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to consolidate between 7.1920 and 7.2150. In the longer run, for now, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is likely to trade in a range 24-HOUR VIEW: "When USD was at 7.2040 yesterday, we indicated that 'there is a chance for USD to edge above 7.2100 before leveling off.' We also indicated that 'The next resistance at 7.2180 is unlikely to come under threat.' While USD subsequently rose more than expected to 7.2240, it pulled back from the high to close little changed at 7.2090 (+0.04%). USD has likely entered a consolidation phase. Today, we expect USD to trade between 7.1920 and 7.2150." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from last Thursday (29 May, spot at 7.2025), wherein USD 'is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300 for now.' USD rose to 7.2240 yesterday and then pulled back. The price action did not result in any increase in upward momentum, and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300."

Data published last week by the Swiss customs authority on Gold exports and the Hong Kong Statistics Department on Gold trade between Hong Kong and China point to a revival in demand for Gold in the Middle Kingdom.

Data published last week by the Swiss customs authority on Gold exports and the Hong Kong Statistics Department on Gold trade between Hong Kong and China point to a revival in demand for Gold in the Middle Kingdom. Gold shipments from Switzerland to China rose to 17.4 tons in April, the highest level in eleven months, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. China's Gold imports surge to 11-month high in April"In January and February, they were still at or close to zero, in March at 10 tons. A further 6.1 tons were delivered from Switzerland to Hong Kong, which is considered an import hub for China, also significantly more than in the previous months. The increase in China's Gold imports from Hong Kong is even more pronounced. These amounted to 58.6 tons in April, the highest level in more than a year." "As far less Gold was shipped from China to Hong Kong at the same time, China's net Gold imports from Hong Kong were considerable for the first time this year at 43.5 tons. In the first three months, there had been net exports totalling 36.2 tons, which was an indication of weak demand. The resulting price discounts compared to the global market price made Gold imports to China unattractive and Gold exports from China attractive." "This has changed. The lower imports led to a shortage, especially as the World Gold Council reported strong demand from Chinese investors for Gold ETFs in April. As a result, Gold in China recently cost up to $50 per troy ounce more than on the global market. This is likely to have favoured Gold shipments to China."

US Dollar (USD) could decline further; given the deeply oversold momentum against Japanese Yen (JPY), a clear break below 142.10 appears unlikely. In the longer run, for a sustained decline, USD must first close below 142.10, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) could decline further; given the deeply oversold momentum against Japanese Yen (JPY), a clear break below 142.10 appears unlikely. In the longer run, for a sustained decline, USD must first close below 142.10, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD must first close below 142.10 to decline further24-HOUR VIEW: "Although we noted yesterday that 'downward momentum has increased slightly', we indicated that 'rather than a sustained decline, USD is more likely to trade in a lower range of 143.25/144.30.' The sudden downward acceleration that sent USD plunging to 142.52 was surprising. The sharp and swift selloff appears to be overextended. However, with no signs of stabilisation just yet, USD could decline further. Given the deeply oversold momentum, a clear break below 142.10 appears unlikely. On the upside, should USD break above 143.30 (minor resistance is at 143.00), it would be an indication that the weakness is stabilising." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (30 May, spot at 143.95), we indicated that 'after the wild swings, the outlook for USD is unclear.' We added, 'For the time being, USD could trade within last week’s wide range, between 142.10 and 146.30.' Yesterday, USD plunged to 142.52. The increase in downward momentum is not enough to indicate a sustained decline. USD must break and hold below 142.10 before further declines can be expected. The likelihood of USD breaking clearly below 142.10 will remain intact as long as 143.85 is not breached in the next few days."

Official manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in May on improved new orders and production. Real activity and export growth likely remained resilient on 2Y CAGR basis, indicating stable momentum.

Official manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in May on improved new orders and production. Real activity and export growth likely remained resilient on 2Y CAGR basis, indicating stable momentum. Deflationary pressure may have intensified; monetary easing likely lifted money and credit growth, Standard Chartered's economists report.Deflation likely is going to worsen"The official manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in May from 49 in April, benefiting from the US-China tariff truce reached in mid-May. New orders and new export orders PMIs rebounded, albeit staying in contractionary territory. The production PMI rebounded to 50.7, indicating m/m expansion. Overall services activity growth remained soft and construction activity slowed due to a still-weak real estate sector.""While headline export growth may have slowed due to a high base, the 2Y CAGR likely accelerated on a recovery in trade flows to the US. We expect imports to have returned to positive growth. Industrial production (IP) growth may have remained resilient, rising to 6.4% y/y in May. We estimate that the 2Y CAGR for retail sales accelerated due to the holiday boost and consumer goods trade-in campaign. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth likely remained stable, supported by solid infrastructure investment, while real estate investment may have continued to contract." "CPI deflation likely worsened 0.1ppt to -0.2% y/y in May on a m/m decline in food, services and fuel prices. PPI deflation may have edged up to -3.3% y/y on falling petrol-related and metals prices as commodity prices fell. We expect M2 and credit growth to have picked up in May partly on the PBoC’s policy rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts. Government bond financing likely expanded significantly."

Rally in New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could extend to 0.6070 before a pause can be expected against US Dollar (USD); major resistance at 0.6095 is likely out of reach for now.

Rally in New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could extend to 0.6070 before a pause can be expected against US Dollar (USD); major resistance at 0.6095 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, rapid buildup in upward momentum indicates further NZD strength; the level to monitor is 0.6095, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Rapid buildup in upward momentum indicates further NZD strength24-HOUR VIEW: "NZD traded in a range of 0.5948/0.5988 last Friday, closing largely unchanged at 0.5971. Yesterday, we stated that 'despite the quiet price action, there has been a slight increase in upward momentum, and this could lead to NZD edging higher to 0.6000 today.' We added, 'a clear break above this level seems unlikely.' We did not expect the sudden surge that sent NZD to a high of 0.6043. NZD then closed higher by 1.13% (0.6039). While deeply overbought, the rally in NZD could extend to 0.6070 before a pause can be expected. The major resistance at 0.6095 is likely out of reach for now. On the downside, 0.6000 (minor support at 0.6020) is likely strong enough to hold any intraday pullback." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest narrative from last Thursday (29 May, spot at 0.5950), we indicated that 'upward momentum has faded, and NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5900 and 0.6000 for now.' Yesterday, in a surprise move, NZD jumped above 0.6000 and reached 0.6043 before closing on a strong note at 0.6039 (+1.13%). The rapid buildup in momentum indicates further NZD strength. The level to monitor is 0.6095. We will maintain our view for a stronger NZD as long as 0.5970 is not breached."

The Gold price rose by 2.8% to $3,380 per troy ounce at the start of the week, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

The Gold price rose by 2.8% to $3,380 per troy ounce at the start of the week, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Platinum is still trading below the two-year high "The last time Gold traded higher was more than three weeks ago. There was no specific trigger for the price jump. Rather, it is likely to be the combination of new tariff fears, geopolitical tensions and concerns about a sharp rise in US government debt that is causing investors to flee into the safe haven of Gold." "In addition, the USD weakened noticeably in the wake of weaker US economic data. Silver rose by more than 5% to $34.8 per troy ounce yesterday, almost reaching its 12-year high from the end of October 2024. Platinum and Palladium, on the other hand, lagged significantly behind, with Platinum even falling in the meantime." "Platinum is still trading below the two-year high of just over $1,100 per troy ounce recorded last week, while Palladium is trading just below $1,000 per troy ounce."

Sharp rise appears excessive, but there is room for Australian Dollar (AUD) to test 0.6510 before leveling off. In the longer run, price action suggests AUD could continue to rise and test the significant resistance level at 0.6540, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Sharp rise appears excessive, but there is room for Australian Dollar (AUD) to test 0.6510 before leveling off. In the longer run, price action suggests AUD could continue to rise and test the significant resistance level at 0.6540, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.AUD may continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected AUD to 'edge higher' yesterday, we indicated that 'any advance is likely limited to a test of 0.6465.' We also indicated that 'the major resistance at 0.6485 is not expected to come under threat.' Our directional call was correct, but we did not anticipate the sharp advance as AUD surged and broke above both 0.6465 and 0.6485, reaching a high of 0.6500. The sharp rise appears excessive, but there is room for AUD to test 0.6510 before leveling off. The major resistance at 0.6540 is unlikely to come under threat. On the downside, support levels are 0.6475 and 0.6460." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (28 May, spot at 0.6420), we highlighted that 'for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485.' Yesterday, AUD broke decisively above 0.6485. The price action suggests AUD could continue to rise and test the significant resistance level at 0.6540. On the downside, should AUD break below 0.6430, it would mean that it is not ready to head higher just yet."
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} ,The US Dollar regains some ground as trade war fears ease.The Dollar suffered on Monday amid renewed trade tensions and weak manufacturing data.Dovish comments by BoE Governor Bailey are adding pressure on the GBP.The Pound is drifting lower on Tuesday, approaching the 1.3500 level. A somewhat brighter market mood, with fears about trade tensions easing, has helped an ailing US Dollar to pare some losses, while Bailey's dovish comments have increased pressure on the Pound.

BoE Governour Bailey, in his testimony on the May Policy Report, downplayed inflationary pressures stemming from higher tariffs and affirmed that the path for interest rates remains downward. The BoE chief has also warned about the uncertain global economic scenario, which will delay UK businesses’ investment decisions. ¡

The pair is coming down from the 1.3560 highs reached on Monday, with investors selling the US Dollar amid concerns about the economic impact of tariffs and the ballooning US federal debt.Tariff uncertainty is hurting US manufacturing activityUS ISM Manufacturing PMI data confirmed those fears later on Monday. May’s reading showed an unexpected deterioration of the sector’s activity, while delivery times increased, raising fears of potential shortages of some products. These figures increased negative pressure on the USD.

In the US, the focus will be on April’s Factory orders, which will be observed with interest after the downbeat PMI data seen on Monday.  Apart from that, the US JOLTS Job openings will open a string of labour market reports that ends on Friday with the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls report. BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.

The eight OPEC+ countries with voluntary production cuts decided at the weekend to increase Oil production by 411 thousand barrels per day in July. This was the third such production increase in a row.

The eight OPEC+ countries with voluntary production cuts decided at the weekend to increase Oil production by 411 thousand barrels per day in July. This was the third such production increase in a row. As there were rumours of an even greater increase in production in the run-up to the meeting, Oil prices rose significantly and recouped the losses from the end of last week. However, there were apparently differing opinions at the virtual meeting, as Reuters reported, citing four OPEC+ sources. Saudi Arabia wanted to increase production more, while Russia and two other countries were in favour of a pause. The decision reached was therefore a compromise, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Downside risks for the Oil price in the coming months"With the increase in supply that has now been approved, more than half of the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day have already been reversed. However, the justification for the production increase, which was identical to the previous month, does not sound very convincing. In fact, it is probably primarily about punishing notorious quota overshooters such as Kazakhstan. OPEC+ also apparently does not want to lose any more market share to shale Oil producers in the US and is also fulfilling the demand of US President Trump, who had called for OPEC+ to increase Oil production.""So far, the Oil market seems to be able to absorb the additional supply. Following the sharp price drop at the beginning of April, which was also caused by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump, and a further decline at the beginning of May, the price of Brent Oil has traded between $63 and $67 per barrel in recent weeks. The current supply shortage in the US, which is reflected in low inventories, is likely to play a role here. In addition, the seasonally higher demand in the summer months could provide short-term support. However, a considerable oversupply could loom in the autumn if OPEC+ increases Oil production at the same rate in the coming months. Looking ahead to next year, however, the Oil market could tighten as no additional Oil supply from OPEC+ is likely to come onto the market.""There are therefore downside risks for the Oil price in the coming months. After that, however, prices could rise again. This is also shown by a look at the forward curves. These signal a falling Oil price until the end of 2025, followed by a rising Oil price from the beginning of 2026. We continue to expect a Brent Oil price of $65 per barrel at the end of the year and a price of $70 per barrel in the coming year."

Strong momentum suggests further Pound Sterling (GBP) strength against US Dollar (USD), even though it is unclear if this will be sufficient for a break above 1.3600.

Strong momentum suggests further Pound Sterling (GBP) strength against US Dollar (USD), even though it is unclear if this will be sufficient for a break above 1.3600. In the longer run, GBP must first close above 1.3600 before a sustained advance can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Strong momentum suggests further GBP strength24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected GBP to 'trade in a range between 1.3435 and 1.3505.' However, GBP broke above 1.3505 and soared to 1.3559 before closing at 1.3544, up by 0.68%. Strong momentum suggests further GBP strength, even though it is unclear this will be sufficient for a break of the 1.3600 resistance. To maintain the momentum, GBP must not break below 1.3500 (minor support is at 1.3520)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from last Friday (30 May, spot at 1.3500), wherein 'the current price movements still appear to be part of a range trading phase, likely between 1.3400 and 1.3600.' Yesterday, GBP rose to 1.3559. There has been an increase in short-term upward momentum, but for a sustained advance, GBP must first close above 1.3600. The likelihood of GBP closing above 1.3600 will grow in the next few days as long as the ‘strong support’ level at 1.3470 is intact."

The reason for the significant strengthening of the US Dollar (USD) in September, when Donald Trump's second term in office was approaching, was obvious.

The reason for the significant strengthening of the US Dollar (USD) in September, when Donald Trump's second term in office was approaching, was obvious. It was widely anticipated that tariffs would push up prices for US consumers and that the Fed would respond with an active monetary policy given the still robust real economy, i.e. it could maintain higher interest rates for longer than the price increase would require. This argument gave the USD an impressive boost, with the dollar index rising by almost 9% in just a few months, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. White House provides many reasons for the USD to weaken"A number of surveys have indicated concern among consumers and business, but there is still a lack of hard data to substantiate the slowdown in the real economy. Although economic growth in the first quarter was weak, this was mainly due to brought-forward imports. Nevertheless, job creation remains robust and US consumers continue to spend despite high levels of uncertainty. It is therefore no surprise that the Fed is doing its utmost to appear hawkish.""One argument is that, although the Fed is expected to respond to rising 1Y1Y inflation expectations, many market participants assume that inflation will rise sharply over the next 12 months and then decline. They believe that US tariffs will trigger a temporary rise in inflation. Understandably, the market does not expect the Fed to respond to such a temporary rise in prices, although given the price shock in the wake of the pandemic, one might question whether this would be justified. Nevertheless, a temporary shock would still mean that the purchasing power of the US dollar would decline, justifying a weaker US dollar in such a case.""Nevertheless, I suspect this only partially explains the US dollar's weakness. Presumably, the US dollar is now reacting more weakly to rising inflation risks because the cause of these risks lies with the White House. In addition to these inflationary risks, the White House provides many other reasons for the US dollar to weaken, such as the risk of imminent taxes on US investment and the generally erratic policies that make investing difficult. But I would argue that, at least for the time being, the weakness of the US dollar is not yet attributable to US monetary policy. Based solely on expectations of the Fed, the US dollar should probably be stronger."

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Swati Dhingra is testifying on the May Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday. 

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Swati Dhingra is testifying on the May Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday. Key quotesSupply chain data points more clearly to disinflation than noisy wage data.
more to come ....

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 98.33 on Tuesday, up from 97.27 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

South Africa Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.1%, above expectations (0%) in 1Q

South Africa Gross Domestic Product (YoY) down to 0.8% in 1Q from previous 0.9%

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is testifying on the May Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday. 

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is testifying on the May Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday. Key quotesKey factors for May rate decision were domestic, not tariffs.

We have not seen particular inflation surprises.

Labor market has loosened somewhat.

Pay growth is above levels consistent with 2% inflation target but lower than expected in Feb.

Gradual and careful remain my guide for rates.Market reactiondeveloping story ...

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann is testifying on the May Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday. 

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann is testifying on the May Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday. Key quotesVoted to hold rates unchanged in May as labor market had not loosened as much as I expected in February.

Services price inflation above what I view as consistent with getting CPI back to target.

Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is testifying on the May Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday. 

Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is testifying on the May Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday. Breeden presented the Annual Report before the MPR hearings.Key quotesEconomy moving gradually into excess supply.

Future policy decisions require certainty that inflation is on track.

Tariffs expected to have small impact on the UK economy.

Slack opening up in labor market will guide policy.
more to come ....

Gold prices jumped Monday as renewed trade concerns and heightened geopolitical tensions supported the metal’s haven appeal, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Gold prices jumped Monday as renewed trade concerns and heightened geopolitical tensions supported the metal’s haven appeal, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Gold is supported by rising geopolitical tensions"Prices rose 2.8% to trade above $3,380/oz on Monday after slumping 2% last week. China accuses the US of violating the recent trade agreement, after President Trump made similar accusations last week. Trump also announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50%. Canada and the EU warn they would retaliate.""Gold has also been supported by rising geopolitical tensions after Ukraine staged a series of strikes across Russia, and Russia launched one of its biggest drone and missile attacks against Kyiv. A second round of peace talks in Istanbul on Monday failed to strike a deal to end the war. All of this is reinforcing Gold’s haven appeal."

AUD/JPY depreciated by approximately 0.50%, trading around 92.20 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross loses ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) falls following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes.

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The currency cross loses ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) falls following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes.RBA Minutes of its May monetary policy meeting indicated that the board viewed the case for a 25 basis point cut as a stronger one, preferring a policy to be cautious and predictable. The board members emphasized that US trade policy posed a significant and adverse impact on the global outlook, but had not yet affected the Australian economy, however, they did not reason that a 50 bps was needed.Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned on Tuesday that “higher US tariffs will put a drag on the global economy.” Hunter also noted that higher uncertainty could dampen investment, output, and employment in Australia. However, she added that Australia’s exporters are relatively well-placed to weather the storm and assumes that Chinese authorities will support their economy through fiscal stimulus.The downside of the AUD/JPY cross could be restrained as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains softer. However, the JPY may regain its ground amid growing odds of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate hikes. The BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed willingness to increase interest rates if economic and price data move in line with forecasts.Ueda also highlighted the importance that Japan's economy is undergoing a moderate recovery despite some weakness. He noted that corporate profits are improving, with business sentiment solid. “Will review bond taper plans at the next policy meeting, taking into account opinions of bond market participants.” Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

EUR/CHF is showing signs of hesitation after rebounding from key support near last year’s lows. While a short-term floor has formed, the pair's inability to reclaim the 200-DMA suggests limited upside traction and leaves the door open to further downside risk, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/CHF is showing signs of hesitation after rebounding from key support near last year’s lows. While a short-term floor has formed, the pair's inability to reclaim the 200-DMA suggests limited upside traction and leaves the door open to further downside risk, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Break below 0.9210 may trigger deeper correction"EUR/CHF recently defended the crucial graphical zone of 0.9250/0.9210 representing last year lows. A brief rebound has materialized after this test. The pair has struggled to maintain above the 200-DMA which points towards a lack of steady upward momentum." "Short-term price action may remain in a range defined by limits of 0.9250/0.9210 and recent pivot high of 0.9445. There could be a risk of a larger down move if the pair breaches 0.9250/0.9210."

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda is back on the wires, via Reuters, commenitng on the impact of US tariffs on the economic and inflation outlook.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda is back on the wires, via Reuters, commenitng on the impact of US tariffs on the economic and inflation outlook.Key quotesEconomic, price environment is becoming more complex.

Economic developments have changed sharply since Trump's tariffs in April.

Tariffs could hurt demand via heightened uncertainty, which could weigh on the economy.

Firms could swallow rising costs from tariffs but this will worsen corporate profits.

In turn, that will have negative impact on wages.

Tariffs could affect Japan's economy via financial, FX market moves also.

Still expect prices to gradually rise and withstand downwards pressure from tariffs.

Corporate profits also stay elevated despite tariffs impact.

Underlying inflation in Japan is rising moderately.

Even as economy slows, Japan likely to maintain mechanism in which wages and prices rise in tandem.

No change to our view that underlying inflation is to gradually head towards 2% target.

BoJ expected to continue hiking rates if underlying inflation accelerates to 2% as projected.

We will judge without preconception whether economic, price forecasts will materialise.

Japanese firms' wage and price-setting behaviour could change significantly due to tariffs impact.

BoJ bond buying is exerting intended effect on improving bond market functionality.

Many bond market players in recent meeting shared BoJ view on that.

BoJ must continue to balance predictability and flexibility with regards to bond taper plan in April 2026.

See no need now to change our baseline view on Japan's economy.

See no change to big picture of Japan's economy, price developments since we released our outlook report on May 1.

Many trade negotiations with US still going on, uncertainty remains high.

Whether to raise interest rates and likely timing of such a move will depend on Japan's economic, price developments.

Won't comment on short-term moves in bond yields. Related news Japanese Yen pares intraday losses against recovering USD amid divergent BoJ-Fed expectations BoJ’s Ueda: Japan's economy moderately recovering Japan’s economic policy roadmap to promote domestic ownership of JGBs – Reuters

The Pound is trading lower for the fourth consecutive day against a stronger Yen, favoured by the frail market sentiment, and hawkish comments by BoJ Governor Ueda, which keep hopes of further rate hikes alive.The BoJ’s chief warned about trade uncertainty but maintained that the bank will continue

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The BoJ’s chief warned about trade uncertainty but maintained that the bank will continue raising rates if the economic expectations are met. Ueda also observed the tight labour market that pushes wages higher and stated that Japan’s real interest rate remains deeply negative, all in all, a hawkishly-leaning message.Technical analysis: The 192.00 area is a key support levelThe Sterling reversed course last week, after rejection at 196.30, a few pips below the May 13 and 14 highs, and has traded lower ever since. Intraday studies are well into negative territory, and the pair approaches the 192.00 area, which is the neckline of a double top at the mentioned levels.

A successful breach of this level would confirm a deeper correction after the April-May rally, bringing the 190.30 level into focus. The Double tpop’s measured target is 187.50.

On the upside, resistances are at 194.50 and the mentioned tops at the 196.30-193.40 area.GBP/JPY 4-Hour Chart Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

Trade war escalation still visible in Caixin’s manufacturing PMI. It's a reminder of much higher US import tariffs despite Geneva-truce. Official composite PMI picks up slightly, ABN AMRO's economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen reports

Trade war escalation still visible in Caixin’s manufacturing PMI. It's a reminder of much higher US import tariffs despite Geneva-truce. Official composite PMI picks up slightly, ABN AMRO's economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen reportsTrade war escalation still visible in Caixin’s manufacturing PMI"China’s May PMIs published over the past few days show that the escalation of the trade war with the US during April is still having an effect on activity and sentiment, despite the truce reached in Geneva on 12 May. To start on the manufacturing side: this morning Caixin’s manufacturing PMI came in much weaker than expected at 48.3 (April: 50.4, consensus: 50.7), the weakest reading since September 2022. By contrast, the official manufacturing PMI published by NBS last Saturday showed an improvement, in line with expectations, climbing to 49.5 (April: 49.0, consensus: 49.5), although staying below the neutral 50 mark separating expansion from contraction. Hence, the divergence between the two manufacturing indices rose again.""Meanwhile, the official non-manufacturing PMI covering services and construction sectors (published last Saturday as well) edged down marginally, to 50.3 (April: 50.4, consensus: 50.5), remaining at relatively low levels just above the neutral 50 mark. The services sub-index picked up a bit to 50.2 (April: 50.1), while the construction sub-index dropped further to a four-month low of 51.0 (March: 51.9). All in all, the official composite PMI (a weighted average of the output components for manufacturing and non-manufacturing) picked up a bit, to 50.4 (April: 50.2). Caixin’s services and composite PMIs for April will be published on the 5th of June.""While the Geneva truce has softened the direct export shock to the US, and trade circumvention and export diversification also continue to mitigate China’s overall export shock – as shown by China's April export data – , the latest PMI data are a reminder that US import tariffs on China are currently around four times higher than they were before the start of the 2nd Trump administration, at around 40% vs 10% previously. Moreover, recent communication between the US and China shows that trade tensions have not disappeared, and uncertainty remains high. Allegedly, the US is looking for opportunities to organise a call between presidents Trump and Xi soon."

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Swati Dhingra is speaking just ahead of her testimony on the May Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Tuesday. 

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Risks to inflation and growth tilted to the downside.Market reactionGBP/USD was last seen trading at 1.3510, down 0.24% on the day. BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.

Euro (EUR) is likely to rise further; overbought conditions suggest 1.1495 is out of reach for now. In the longer run, EUR outlook is revised to positive; the immediate levels to watch are 1.1495 and 1.1530, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Euro (EUR) is likely to rise further; overbought conditions suggest 1.1495 is out of reach for now. In the longer run, EUR outlook is revised to positive; the immediate levels to watch are 1.1495 and 1.1530, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Overbought conditions suggest 1.1495 is out of reach for now24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for EUR to 'trade in a range of 1.1320/1.1390' yesterday was incorrect. Instead of range trading, EUR soared, closing 0.68% higher at 1.1441. Unsurprisingly, the rally has led to a sharp increase in upward momentum. While EUR is likely to rise further today, deeply overbought conditions suggest that 1.1490 is out of reach for now. Note that there is another resistance level at 1.1470. On the downside, any pullback is likely to hold above 1.1390, with minor support at 1.1415." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (30 May, spot at 1.1380), we highlighted that the recent 'increase in momentum is not enough for a sustained advance.' We also highlighted that 'To rise in a sustained manner, EUR must first break and hold above 1.1435, and meanwhile, EUR is likely to trade in a range of 1.1270/1.1435.' Yesterday, in a sharp move, EUR soared, closing above 1.1435 at 1.1441 (+0.68%). Given this development, we are revising our EUR outlook to positive. The immediate levels to watch are 1.1495 and 1.1530. We will maintain our positive view as long as the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.1345, is not breached."

The US Dollar’s slide accelerated at the start of the week, driven by two main factors: growing trade uncertainty and rising concerns from bond vigilantes over the US deficit.

The US Dollar’s slide accelerated at the start of the week, driven by two main factors: growing trade uncertainty and rising concerns from bond vigilantes over the US deficit. Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing surveys delivered a negative surprise, reversing the recent trend of resilient US data, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. USD risk premium in the DXY below 98.0 is hard to justify"The drop in the export gauge to a five-year low may be a signal that retaliatory measures are biting, adding weight to the broader manufacturing complex that is hit by trade policy uncertainty and softer consumption. Today’s spotlight is on April’s JOLTS report, where job openings and layoffs will be scrutinised closely. Durable goods orders for April are also expected to have taken a hit. Another round of soft data, particularly in the labour market, can push the dollar back to its April lows.""That said, the fragile US bond market remains the bigger story. We see the USD risk premium in the DXY index below 98.0 as hard to justify on weak growth expectations alone — it would likely need further weakness in Treasuries to move lower.""Trade developments remain crucial. Reports suggest China is gaining leverage over the US through its control of chip supply chains and rare earths. Trump and Xi Jinping are set to speak this week, and past direct talks have sometimes eased tensions. That leaves room for a positive surprise that could help the dollar at some point this week."

The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose at an annual pace of 1.9% in May after increasing by 2.2% in April, the official data released by Eurostat showed Tuesday.

The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose at an annual pace of 1.9% in May after increasing by 2.2% in April, the official data released by Eurostat showed Tuesday.Markets estimated a 2% reading in the reported period.The core HICP advanced 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) in May against a 2.7% growth in April, missing the 2.5% forecast.developing story ...

Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.3% below forecasts (2.5%) in May

Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to 0% in May from previous 0.6%

Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to 0% in May from previous 1%

Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) below expectations (2%) in May: Actual (1.9%)

Eurozone Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (6.2%) in April

The oil market surged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent hitting US$65.76/bbl at one stage, as USD weakness, rising geopolitical risks and possibly a supply hike from OPEC+ that fell short of expectations all provided a boost.

The oil market surged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent hitting US$65.76/bbl at one stage, as USD weakness, rising geopolitical risks and possibly a supply hike from OPEC+ that fell short of expectations all provided a boost. The strength continued into early morning trading today, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Demand is set to pick up into the summer months"The move higher in flat price has been accompanied by a strengthening in the prompt ICE Brent timepsread. It’s trading at a backwardation of more than US$0.70/bbl, up from a little over the US$0.30/bbl level in early May. The spot oil market is still relatively tight." "Demand is set to pick up as we move into the summer months, suggesting prices are likely to remain relatively well supported. However, the market is likely to shift into a large surplus from the fourth quarter onwards. This should put renewed downward pressure on oil prices later in the year.""Meanwhile, ongoing wildfires in Alberta, Canada, are offering further support to the market in the short run. Roughly 350k b/d of oil production is being shut down, which is around 7% of total Canadian oil production. West Canada Select’s (WCS) discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has narrowed over the last couple of weeks. Continued shut-ins due to fires should provide further support to the WCS-WTI spread."

Spain 12-Month Letras Auction declined to 1.878% from previous 1.886%

NZD/USD is retracing its recent losses, trading around 0.5990 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a revival of neutral market sentiment as the Kiwi pair is attempting to fall back within a rectangular pattern.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD may target its fresh seven-month high of 0.6055, marked on Tuesday.The 14-day Relative Strength Index is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting a persistent bullish bias.The nine-day EMA of 0.5976 appears as the primary support within the rectangular pattern.NZD/USD is retracing its recent losses, trading around 0.5990 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a revival of neutral market sentiment as the Kiwi pair is attempting to fall back within a rectangular pattern.However, the pair depreciates despite a stronger short-term price momentum, positioning above a nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the bullish bias persists as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is maintaining its position above the 50 mark.On the upside, the NZD/USD pair may again target the fresh seven-month high of 0.6055, recorded earlier in the Asian session. A successful breach above this key resistance zone could reinforce the bullish bias and open the doors for the pair to explore the region around the eight-month high of 0.6350, marked in October 2024.A downside return to the rectangular pattern could prompt the pair to test the nine-day EMA of 0.5976, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.5891. A break below these levels could weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to test the rectangle’s lower boundary around 0.5830.Further decline beneath the rectangle pattern could cause the emergence of the bearish bias and pave the way for a deeper decline toward 0.5485, a level not seen since March 2020.NZD/USD: Daily Chart New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.29% 0.24% 0.06% 0.12% 0.58% 0.56% 0.18% EUR -0.29% -0.03% -0.21% -0.15% 0.30% 0.35% -0.10% GBP -0.24% 0.03% -0.19% -0.12% 0.34% 0.38% -0.07% JPY -0.06% 0.21% 0.19% 0.06% 0.50% 0.52% 0.18% CAD -0.12% 0.15% 0.12% -0.06% 0.41% 0.51% 0.05% AUD -0.58% -0.30% -0.34% -0.50% -0.41% 0.05% -0.42% NZD -0.56% -0.35% -0.38% -0.52% -0.51% -0.05% -0.45% CHF -0.18% 0.10% 0.07% -0.18% -0.05% 0.42% 0.45% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Silver prices (XAG/USD) are trading lower on Tuesday’s European session, weighed by a somewhat firmer US Dollar, as the risk-off mood witnessed on Monday seems to have eased.The precious metal hit fresh six-month highs on Monday, with the US Dollar hammered by renewed tariff concerns and downbeat US

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The precious metal hit fresh six-month highs on Monday, with the US Dollar hammered by renewed tariff concerns and downbeat US data. The US Manufacturing PMI confirmed the negative impact of tariffs on factory activity and pushed the US Dollar to fresh multi-month lows.Technical analysis: Silver’s broader trend remains positiveFrom a wider perspective, price action remains positive. The reversal from $34.75 has been contained at the 34.00 round level, above the previous resistance, now a potential support area, at $33.70.

On the upside, the area between $34.75 and $35.00 contains several resistance levels (October 23 and June 4 highs), and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the Mid may rally, and might be a tough nut to crack.

Above here, a late 2012 peak lies at $35.40. The 2611.8% Fiboinnacci retracement is at $37.00.

On the downside, immediate support is at the mentioned $33.70 and then at the $32.65-$32.75 zone.XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains steady after registering more than 3.50% gains, trading around $62.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

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However, Crude Oil prices faced a few challenges, potentially weighed down by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cutting down forecasts of the global economy.The OECD has revised its global GDP growth forecast for the current year to 2.9% from 3.1% previous estimations. The next year global GDP growth forecast has been slightly declined to 2.9% against the previous 3.0%. Meanwhile, the United States (US), the largest Oil consumer, is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2025 versus 2.2% prior and by 1.5% in 2026, slightly lower than the previous estimation of 1.6%.Moreover, Oil prices may face challenges as dollar-denominated commodities become expensive for holders of other currencies due to a technical upward correction in the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has rebounded from a six-week low of 98.58 and is trading higher near 98.90 at the time of writing.However, Oil prices gained ground as ongoing geopolitical tensions boost concerns over a tighter global supply. Iran is prepared to reject a US nuclear deal proposal that would be key to easing sanctions on the Oil producer. Moreover, the second round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, on Monday, yielded no significant progress in resolving the three-year-long conflict following a surge in hostilities on Sunday.Reuters reported that refiners worldwide are earning unexpected profits from producing key fuels in recent weeks. This has supported a struggling sector ahead of an anticipated downturn later this year, as plant closures have tightened fuel supply needed to meet peak summer demand.Oil prices surged after a lower-than-expected supply hike from the group OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. The Oil group decided to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July by the same amount for the third successive month. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Italy Unemployment below forecasts (6.1%) in April: Actual (5.9%)

Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation fell from previous 0.45% to 0.27% in May

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in April, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US JOLTS data will be watched closely ahead of the release of the May employment report on Friday.Job openings are forecast to edge lower to 7.1 million in April.The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials when setting interest rates.The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in April, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers because it can provide valuable insights into the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation. Job openings have been declining steadily since reaching 12 million in March 2022, indicating a steady cooldown in labor market conditions. In January, the number of job openings came in above 7.7 million before declining to 7.2 million by March. What to expect in the next JOLTS report?Markets expect job openings to retreat slightly to 7.1 million on the last business day of April. With the growing uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policy on the economic and inflation outlook, Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have been voicing their concerns over a potential cooldown in the labor market. The minutes of the Fed’s May 6-7 policy meeting showed policymakers agreed that risks of higher unemployment had risen. Still, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that risks to employment and inflation goals were “roughly balanced”, adding that it could take “quite some time” to see a shift in the balance of risks.It is important to note that the JOLTS report refers to the end of April, while the official Employment report, which will be released on Friday, measures data for May. Regardless of the lagging nature of the JOLTS data, a significant decline in the number of job openings, with a reading well below 7 million, could feed into fears about a weakening labor market. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) is likely to come under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction.On the flip side, a sharp increase, with a print at or above 7.7 million, could suggest that the labor market remains relatively stable. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets don’t expect the Fed to cut the policy rate at the next policy meeting in June, while pricing in a nearly 25% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) reduction in July. This market positioning suggests that a positive surprise could support the USD by causing investors to lean toward a delay of rate reduction to September. Related news Seven Fundamentals for the Week: Fasten your seatbelts for the NFP, ECB and buzzing trade headlines Will the US Dollar Pump or Dump after this week's NFP [Video] Trade, tariff concerns weigh on the USD – Scotiabank When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD?Job opening numbers will be published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares his technical outlook for EUR/USD:“The near-term technical outlook points to a buildup of bullish momentum in EUR/USD. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays near 60 and the pair pulls away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average, currently located at 1.1280, after dipping below it in the previous week.”“On the upside, 1.1530-1.1575 (end-point of the three-month-old uptrend, April 21 high) aligns as the first resistance region before 1.1700 (static level, round level) and 1.1780 (upper limit of the ascending channel). Looking south, the initial support area could be seen at 1.1280 (20-day SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) ahead of 1.1200-1.1180 (50-day SMA, lower limit of the ascending channel) and 1.1080 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).” US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

EUR/USD trades with moderate losses, following a strong performance on the previous day.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD trims some gains ahead of the Eurozone CPI release.The US Dollar remains unable to take distance from multi-week lows.US Manufacturing PMI confirmed tariffs’ negative impact on factory activity.EUR/USD trades with moderate losses, following a strong performance on the previous day. The pair is moving around 1.1420 at the time of writing, with investors focusing on the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Prices Index (CPI) numbers, due later on Tuesday.

Consumer prices are expected to have cooled in May, with the headline inflation returning to a 2% year-over-year (YoY) growth rate, from the 2.2% reading seen in April. Likewise, the core CPI is seen moderating to 2.5% from April’s 2.7% reading.

These figures are likely to be welcomed by the European Central Bank (ECB), which is widely expected to cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time on Thursday. These numbers give some margin for the central bank to take a pause in July, but ECB President Christine Lagarde will stick to her neutral tone, assuring that further decisions will depend on data.

The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains unable to show a significant recovery. US President Trump’s chaotic trade policy and growing concerns about fiscal stability are acting as headwinds to the Greenback, and recent US data failed to provide any relevant support. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.22% 0.14% 0.03% 0.12% 0.55% 0.55% 0.05% EUR -0.22% -0.04% -0.18% -0.08% 0.35% 0.41% -0.15% GBP -0.14% 0.04% -0.12% -0.04% 0.40% 0.45% -0.10% JPY -0.03% 0.18% 0.12% 0.09% 0.50% 0.53% 0.09% CAD -0.12% 0.08% 0.04% -0.09% 0.38% 0.49% -0.06% AUD -0.55% -0.35% -0.40% -0.50% -0.38% 0.05% -0.53% NZD -0.55% -0.41% -0.45% -0.53% -0.49% -0.05% -0.55% CHF -0.05% 0.15% 0.10% -0.09% 0.06% 0.53% 0.55% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar weakness keeps Euro downside attempts limitedThe Euro maintains its broader positive trend intact, with the US Dollar languishing near multi-week lows. The US Dollar Index DXY returned below the 100.00 psychological level last week, reaching fresh six-week lows at 98.60 on Monday.
US Manufacturing PMI deteriorated against expectations in May, with delivery times increasing, according to the report by the ISM. These figures have confirmed the negative impact of trade uncertainty on the sectors’ activity and triggered fears of supply chain disruptions.
May’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted to a six-month low of 48.5 from 48.7 in the previous month, against market expectations of an increase to 49.5. The new orders and employment subindexes edged up, while the prices paid declined. The US Dollar extended losses after the release.
In Europe, May’s Manufacturing PMI confirmed the expected 49.4  reading, marking the fifth consecutive improvement in data, although still at levels consistent with a slight contraction of the sector’s activity.
Germany’s PMI was revised down to a 48.3 reading, from the previously estimated 48.8, highlighting the soft momentum of the region’s major economy. The impact on the Euro, however, was muted.
The main attraction today in Europe will be the Eurozone CPI data, due at 09:00 GMT, which is expected to show cooling price pressures and will frame Thursday’s ECB decision.
The US Factory Orders will be observed with special interest after the soft manufacturing figures seen on Monday. New orders are expected to have dropped month-over-month (MoM) in April by 3%, following a 3.4% increase in March. The risk for the USD is skewed to the downside.
Somewhat later, the US JOLTS Job Openings will open a string of labour market releases this week, which ends with the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Job openings are expected to have remained steady at 7.1 million in April. Technical analysis: EUR/USD bulls are capped below the 1.1450 resistance areaEUR/USD hit six-week highs at 1.1450 on Monday but failed to consolidate above the resistance area between 1.1415 and 1.1435, which has been holding bulls since mid-April.

The pair, however, maintains its positive trend intact, as the broad-based US Dollar weakness is keeping bears at bay for now. Immediate resistance is now at the 1.1450 reverse trendline, which closes the path towards the April 22 high, at 1.1545.

Failure to break 1.1450, on the contrary, might put the May 30 low at 1.1310 back in play ahead of the 1.1220 support area.EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart
Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

The US Dollar is trading on a somewhat stronger note on Tuesday, favoured by an improved market sentiment, which has helped the USD/CAD to bounce from year-to-date lows below 1.3700 and return to 1the 1.3730 area at the moment of writing.The broader trend, however, remains bearish, with speculative

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The broader trend, however, remains bearish, with speculative demand for the YS Dollar weak, on concerns about Trump’s tariffs’ impact on the US economy and looming fears about the US fiscal health.The Dollar needs strong US data to confirm its recoveryThe US ISM Manufacturing PMI figures released on Monday confirmed that trade uncertainty is taking its toll on the sector. The PMI declined for its third consecutive time, against expectations of a slight improvement. The employment and new orders subindexes ticked up, with prices declining and delivery times increasing, and rising concerns about potential shortages in some products.

The figures added pressure on an already weak USDollar, but the Greenback managed to pick up during the Asian session, with market sentiment improving somewhat.

In Canada, the strong Gross Domestic Product figures seen last week have cemented expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold, which is keeping the Canadian dollar’s dips limited.

The focus today will be on the US Factory Orders release, of particular interest after Monday’s weak manufacturing data, and the US JOLTS Job Openings. The US Dollar needs positive surprises to extend its recovery. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised global growth down to 2.9% for 2025-2026, anticipating the fallout from the Trump administration's trade war.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised global growth down to 2.9% for 2025-2026, anticipating the fallout from the Trump administration's trade war.Key takeawaysOECD cuts US 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% (previous 2.2%), trims 2026 to 1.5% (previous 1.6%).

OECD cuts global 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.9% (previous 3.1%), trims 2026 to 2.9% (previous 3.0%).

OECD maintains Euro area 2025 GDP growth forecast at 1.0%, holds 2026 at 1.2%.

OECD trims China 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.7% (previous 4.8%), lowers 2026 to 4.3%. (previous 4.4%)

OECD trims UK 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% (previous 1.4%), cuts 2026 to 1.0% (previous 1.2%).

OECD cuts Japan 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% (previous 1.1%), raises 2026 to 0.4% (previous 0.2%).

The EUR/GBP cross loses ground to near 0.8445, snapping the three-day winning streak during the early session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid the renewed trade tensions.

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The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid the renewed trade tensions. Traders brace for the preliminary reading of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices from the Eurozone, which is due later on Tuesday. The EU said on Monday that it would make a strong case this week for the US to reduce or eliminate tariffs even after Trump said he would double import duties on steel and aluminium to 50%, effective on Wednesday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-EU negotiation, as the Trump administration has asked its trade partners to submit their best offers in order to finalize deals before July 8. Any signs of trade talks progress could help limit the shared currency’s losses. The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut its policy rate by another 25 basis points (bps) at its June meeting, bringing its deposit rate to 2.00%. Traders will take more cues from the speech from the ECB President Christine Lagarde later on Tuesday. The dovish remarks from Lagarde might weigh on the EUR’s downside. On the other hand, the rising expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will pause its interest rate reductions could underpin the GBP and act as a headwind for the cross. The futures markets have priced in borrowing rates to fall by around 38 bps by the end of this year, implying one 25 bps rate cut and a roughly 50% chance of a second reduction, according to a report from Reuters.  ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

 

 

Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 35.41% below forecasts (36.1%) in May

Spain Unemployment Change registered at -57.835K above expectations (-68.5K) in May

Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2%) in May: Actual (1.53%)

Spain Unemployment Change registered at -57.8K above expectations (-68.5K) in May

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, June 3:Following the risk-averse action that weighed on the US Dollar (USD) at the beginning of the week, markets stabilize early Tuesday. The European economic calendar will feature preliminary inflation data for May and investors will pay close attention to the JOLTS Job Openings data from the US in the second half of the day. Several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will also be delivering speeches during the American trading hours. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.67% -0.48% -0.63% -0.09% -0.39% -0.59% -0.58% EUR 0.67% 0.19% 0.05% 0.58% 0.29% 0.06% 0.08% GBP 0.48% -0.19% -0.12% 0.39% 0.10% -0.14% -0.11% JPY 0.63% -0.05% 0.12% 0.54% 0.23% 0.02% -0.05% CAD 0.09% -0.58% -0.39% -0.54% -0.29% -0.51% -0.49% AUD 0.39% -0.29% -0.10% -0.23% 0.29% -0.18% -0.14% NZD 0.59% -0.06% 0.14% -0.02% 0.51% 0.18% 0.03% CHF 0.58% -0.08% 0.11% 0.05% 0.49% 0.14% -0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Safe-haven flows dominated the financial markets on Monday as investors grew pessimistic about the United States (US) and China reaching a trade agreement. In the late American session, citing a draft letter addressed to the US' negotiating partners, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump's administration is asking countries to deliver their best trade offers by Wednesday. Additionally, a White House spokesperson said that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were planning to meet later this week. These headlines helped the risk mood improve toward the end of the day and allowed the USD to find a foothold. Early Tuesday, the USD Index clings to small daily gains at around 99.00, while US stock index futures trade marginally lower.In the minutes of its May policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) noted that it was not yet time to move the monetary policy toward an expansionary setting. Meanwhile, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned early Tuesday that higher US tariffs will put a drag on the global economy. After rising about 1% on Monday, AUD/USD stays under bearish pressure and loses more than 0.5% on the day near 0.6450.Gold benefited from the risk-averse market atmosphere on Monday and climbed to its highest level since early May above $3,390. XAU/USD corrects lower early Tuesday but manages to hold slightly above $3,350.EUR/USD edges lower following Monday's rally but stays above 1.1400. Annual inflation in the Eurozone, as measured by the change in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, is forecast to soften to 2% in May from 2.2% in April. Eurostat will also publish the Unemployment Rate data for April.GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.3500 after closing decisively higher on Monday. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the Japanese economy is recovering modestly, despite showing some signs of weakness. USD/JPY clings to small gains near 143.00 in the European morning on Tuesday after closing in negative territory for three consecutive days. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

France Budget Balance fell from previous €-47.03B to €-69.3B in April

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in May

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (-0.1%) in May

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.13 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $62.50.

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The USD/CHF pair trades with mild gains near 0.8180 during the early European session on Tuesday, bolstered by a modest rebound of the US Dollar (USD).

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Nonetheless, tariff uncertainty and the persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven currency like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and create a headwind for the pair. Technically, the bearish outlook of USD/CHF remains in play as the pair remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Furthermore, the downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located below the midline around 39.60, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the downside. The lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 0.8130 acts as an initial support level for USD/CHF. A decisive break below the mentioned level could expose 0.8039, the low of April 21. Further south, the next contention level is seen at the 0.8000 psychological level. On the bright side, the first upside barrier for the pair emerges at 0.8347, the high of May 29. Sustained trading above this level could pave the way to 0.8450, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Extended gains could see the next hurdle at 0.8542, the 100-day EMA.USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

EUR/JPY remains steady after registering gains in the previous day, trading around 163.30 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data, scheduled to be released later in the day, will be eyed.

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Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data, scheduled to be released later in the day, will be eyed.The EUR/JPY cross maintains its position as the Japanese Yen (JPY) posted little losses despite the hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, suggesting a willingness to increase interest rates if economic and price data move in line with forecasts.Governor Ueda highlighted the importance that Japan's economy is undergoing a moderate recovery despite some weakness. Ueda also noted that corporate profits are improving, with business sentiment solid. “Will review bond taper plans at the next policy meeting, taking into account opinions of bond market participants,” Ueda added.The JPY also faced challenges as the US dollar recovers its ground on technical correction, despite growing concerns regarding stagflation in the United States (US). Traders adopt caution ahead of the implementation, on Wednesday, of the new “double import tariffs,” increasing from 25% to 50%, on steel and aluminum.The European Union (EU) expressed strong regret that Trump's plan to double US tariffs on steel and aluminum could derail bilateral trade negotiations. On Saturday, the European Commission (EC) noted that Trump's tariffs decision undermines ongoing efforts to reach a trade deal, warning about "countermeasures", per BBC. Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 03, 2025 09:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 0.6% Source: Eurostat

The AUD/JPY cross attracted some sellers after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Minutes showed that the central bank had considered an outsized 50 basis point cut in May.

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Spot prices retreat around 50 pips from the Asian session high and drop to the 92.35 region in the last hour, though the downfall lacks bearish conviction amid a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY).From a technical perspective, the AUD/JPY cross is currently placed just below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal support on the 4-hour chart. Given that oscillators on hourly/daily charts have started gaining negative traction, some follow-through selling will be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses. Spot prices might then slide to last week's swing low, around the 92.00 mark, and resume its recent retracement slide from a two-month peak touched in May. The subsequent fall could drag the AUD/JPY cross to the 91.65 intermediate support en route to the 91.25-91.20 horizontal resistance breakpoint and the 91.00 round figure. The latter should act as a strong base for spot prices, which if broken decisively should pave the way for some meaningful depreciating move in the near term.On the flip side, the 92.80-92.85 region, or the Asian session peak, now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle. A sustained move beyond could lift the AUD/JPY cross beyond the 93.00 mark and the 93.15-93.20 supply zone, towards last week's swing high, around the 93.85 area. This is closely followed by the 94.00 round figure, which if cleared decisively might shift the bias in favor of bullish traders and set the stage for a move towards testing the next relevant hurdle near the 94.70-94.75 region.AUD/JPY 4-hour chart Economic Indicator RBA Meeting Minutes The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD. Read more. Last release: Tue Jun 03, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Weekly Actual: - Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes of its monetary policy meeting two weeks after the interest rate decision is announced. It provides a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the AUD. The minutes also reveal considerations on international economic developments and the exchange rate value.

FX option expiries for Jun 3 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jun 3 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1200 1b1.1250 1.1b1.1350 3.6b1.1400 1.7b1.1450 1.2bUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 143.00 859mUSD/CHF: USD amounts     0.8175 530m0.8230 682mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6415 972m0.6500 765m0.6505 719mUSD/CAD: USD amounts       1.3700 1.1b

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has rebounded from a six-week low of 98.58 and is trading higher near 98.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Traders would likely observe the release of the JOLTS Job Openings later on Tuesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar Index has rebounded from a six-week low of 98.58, recorded on Tuesday.US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May, indicating a third monthly decline in output.Market sentiment weakens as China’s Ministry of Commerce rejected Trump’s claims of breaching a tariffs truce.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has rebounded from a six-week low of 98.58 and is trading higher near 98.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Traders would likely observe the release of the JOLTS Job Openings later on Tuesday.However, the US Dollar faced challenges after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index survey of the manufacturing sector indicated a decline for the third successive month. The index fell to 48.5 in May from 48.7 in April, against the market expectations of a 49.5 reading.US President Donald Trump told a rally in Pennsylvania on Friday that he planned to secure the local steel industry by doubling import tariffs, increasing from 25% to 50%, on steel and aluminum. The increased tariffs will take effect on Wednesday, which will build up pressure on global steel producers and intensify the trade war.The European Union (EU) warned that Trump's plan to double US tariffs on steel and aluminium could derail bilateral trade negotiations. On Saturday, the European Commission (EC) said that Trump's tariffs decision "undermines ongoing efforts" to reach a deal, warning about "countermeasures", per BBC.Last week, Trump accused China of breaching a tariffs truce reached earlier this month. He also said that China had "totally violated its agreement with us". A spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce rejected Trump’s claim and honored the agreement by cancelling or suspending relevant tariff and non-tariff measures aimed at the US "reciprocal tariffs." US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.18% 0.15% 0.17% 0.14% 0.44% 0.34% 0.05% EUR -0.18% -0.00% 0.03% -0.02% 0.28% 0.24% -0.11% GBP -0.15% 0.00% 0.02% -0.01% 0.28% 0.24% -0.11% JPY -0.17% -0.03% -0.02% -0.04% 0.23% 0.18% -0.06% CAD -0.14% 0.02% 0.01% 0.04% 0.24% 0.26% -0.09% AUD -0.44% -0.28% -0.28% -0.23% -0.24% -0.04% -0.38% NZD -0.34% -0.24% -0.24% -0.18% -0.26% 0.04% -0.35% CHF -0.05% 0.11% 0.11% 0.06% 0.09% 0.38% 0.35% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The Silver price (XAG/USD) faces some selling pressure to around $34.15 after retreating from a nearly seven-month high during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal loses ground due to some profit-taking amid easing trade tensions. 

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The white metal loses ground due to some profit-taking amid easing trade tensions. A generally positive tone around the equity markets weighs on the safe-haven assets, including the white metal. US President Donald Trump planned to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum, starting on Wednesday. On the same day, the Trump administration asked its trade partners to submit their best offers in order to finalize deals before July 8. However, the potential downside for XAG/USD might be limited amid tariff and economic uncertainty.The Greenback edges lower after data showed US manufacturing contracted for a third month in May. This, in turn, might help limit the USD-denominated commodity price’s losses. The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 48.5 in May versus 48.7 prior, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed on Monday. This figure came in below the market consensus of 49.5. Traders will closely monitor the release of the US employment report for May later on Friday. This report could offer some hints about the US economy and interest rate path. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to show job growth of 130K in May, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2% in the same report period. If the data shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could boost the Greenback and undermine the white metal.  Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the overnight strong move up to the 1.3560 area, or a multi-day peak.

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Spot prices drop to the 1.3515 area, or a fresh daily low in the last hour amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for bearish traders. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, rebounds from a six-week trough touched on Monday and turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further this year amid signs of easing inflationary pressures.Moreover, concerns about the worsening US fiscal situation and renewed US-China trade tensions should contribute to capping the upside for the Greenback. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, might continue to draw support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would pause at its next meeting on June 18 and take its time before cutting interest rates further. This could further help limit losses for the GBP/USD pair. Traders might also opt to wait for the BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings before Parliament. Investors will closely scrutinize comments from  BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and other Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members for cues about the policy outlook, which, in turn, will drive the GBP. Later during the early North American session, the US JOLTS Job Openings data and Fedspeaks might influence the USD and the GBP/USD pair. Economic Indicator BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs, and associated public bodies, including the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 03, 2025 09:15 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Bank of England

Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from the vicinity of the $3,400 round-figure mark, or a nearly four-week peak touched during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong gains.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price attracts some intraday sellers amid a modest USD rebound from a multi-week low.Fed rate cut bets and US fiscal concerns should keep a lid on further USD appreciation.Rising geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainties should support the XAU/USD pair.Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from the vicinity of the $3,400 round-figure mark, or a nearly four-week peak touched during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong gains. A modest US Dollar (USD) recovery from the lowest level since April 22 is seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the commodity. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets seems to undermine demand for the safe-haven precious metal.However, persistent trade-related uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions might keep a lid on any optimism in the markets. Adding to this, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs again, along with concerns about the worsening US fiscal condition, should cap any meaningful USD appreciation and help limit deeper losses for the Gold price. This, in turn, warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bears and positioning for a further intraday downfall.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price drifts lower but downside seems cushioned by unabated tensionsThe US Dollar rebounds from a six-week low and prompts some profit-taking around the Gold price on Tuesday, following the previous day's move higher. Most Asian equity markets took positive cues from the stronger overnight close on Wall Street and exerted additional pressure on the safe-haven precious metal.Investors, however, remained largely on edge in the wake of rising US-China trade tensions and geopolitical risks. US President Donald Trump lashed out at China over the weekend and accused the latter of violating a preliminary tariff agreement, reviving fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies.Earlier last week, Trump announced that he is going to double tariffs on steel imports from 25% to 50%. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reportedly urging countries to present their most favorable trade proposals by Wednesday in an effort to speed up discussions before reciprocal tariffs come into effect on July 8.A second round of direct peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Istanbul on Monday ended without a major breakthrough. Moreover, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the surprise drone attacks over the weekend were a success and that it will continue if Russia doesn't halt its offensive.The developments have heightened geopolitical risks, which might continue to weigh on investors' sentiment and offer some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. Furthermore, bets for at least two 25 basis points interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 should limit losses for the non-yielding yellow metal.Comments from several Fed officials in recent days have brought some clarity to the outlook for interest rate cuts in 2025. In fact, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that rate cuts remain possible later this year even with the Trump administration's tariffs likely to push up price pressures temporarily.Moreover, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that interest rates can come down over 12-18 months. In contrast, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan struck a cautious tone and said that the policy is well positioned to wait and be patient, and the risk is if higher short-term inflation expectations become entrenched.Nevertheless, investors seem convinced that the Fed will stick to its easing bias amid signs of further easing of inflationary pressure in the US. Adding to this concerns about the US fiscal health could revive the "sell America" theme, which, in turn, warrants caution for the USD bulls and should benefit the commodity.Traders now look forward to the release of the US JOLTS Job Openings data, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, will drive the USD and the XAU/USD pair. The focus, however, will remain on the US monthly employment details, or the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.Gold price dip below $3,355 resistance-turned-support could be a buying opportunityFrom a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the $3,324-3,326 hurdle and a subsequent strength beyond the $3,355 area was seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, oscillators on daily/hourly charts are holding comfortably in positive territory and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. Hence, any subsequent slide below the $3,355 area could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $3,326-3,324 resistance-turned-support. Some follow-through selling, however, could make the commodity vulnerable to weakening further below the $3,300 mark and testing the $3,286-3,285 horizontal support.On the flip side, bulls might now wait for a move beyond the $3,400 round figure before positioning for a move toward the next relevant resistance near the $3,430-3,432 area. A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow the Gold price to retest the all-time peak touched in April and make a fresh attempt to conquer the $3,500 psychological mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,241.68 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,292.74 it cost on Monday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 107,793.10 per tola from INR 108,388.70 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,241.68 10 Grams 92,416.80 Tola 107,793.10 Troy Ounce 287,447.70   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Gold daily market movers: Bullion rallies sharply as Greenback plummets Gold price surges as the US Dollar tanks. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six currencies, tumbles 0.72% at 98.71. US Treasury bond yields are rising, with the US 10-year Treasury note yielding up almost six basis points to 4.458%. US real yields had followed suit and are also surging by six basis points to 2.118%. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose by 48.5, down from April’s 48.7, hitting its lowest reading since November. The Prices Index remained in expansion territory, registering 69.4 percent, while the Employment Index stood in contractionary territory but improved from 46.5 to 46.8. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory, yet dipped in May from April’s 52.3 to 52. After the data release, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow preliminary reading of economic growth for Q2 2025 rose sharply from 3.8% to 4.6%. Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 51 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

EUR/USD edges lower after registering over 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1420 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) recovers its ground on technical correction, despite growing concerns regarding stagflation in the United States (US).

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The US Dollar (USD) recovers its ground on technical correction, despite growing concerns regarding stagflation in the United States (US). Traders will likely observe Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data scheduled to be released on Tuesday. Focus will shift toward the release of the JOLTS Job Openings later in the North American session.US President Donald Trump threatened on Friday to double import tariffs on steel and aluminium, effective on Wednesday, to build up pressure on global steel producers and intensify the trade war. "We are going to be imposing a 25% increase. We're going to bring it from 25% to 50% - the tariffs on steel into the United States of America, which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States," he said, per Reuters.Moreover, the US Dollar attracted sellers after the closely watched Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index survey of the manufacturing sector signalled a third monthly decline in output in a row. The index eased to 48.5 in May from 48.7 in April. This figure came in weaker than the expectation of 49.5.The European Union (EU) expressed “strong” regrets over Trump's plan to double US tariffs on steel and aluminium, which could derail bilateral trade negotiations. The European Commission (EC) said on Saturday that Trump's tariffs decision "undermines ongoing efforts" to reach a deal, warning about "countermeasures", per BBC. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

NZD/USD pulls back from an eight-month high of 0.6055, trading around 0.6010 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

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The pair depreciates as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggles, possibly due to softer-than-expected Terms of Trade Index data, which increased 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, down from a 3.1% increase in the previous quarter and below market forecasts for a similar 3.1% rise. Export prices rose 7.1%, the largest rise in three years, while import prices climbed 5.1%, the biggest increase in 10 quarters.Moreover, China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly declined to 48.3 in May from the previous reading of 50.4, below the expected 50.6 expansion. However, the weekend data showed that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May, from April’s 49.0 reading. The NZD could be impacted by Chinese economic data as both countries are close trading partners.Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Assistant Governor Karen Silk noted that interest rates are now within the neutral 2.5%–3.5% band following a 25 basis points rate cut. Silk also said that further policy decisions will be data-dependent.However, the NZD/USD pair may regain its ground as the US Dollar (USD) may continue to struggle amid growing concerns regarding stagflation in the United States (US). US President Donald Trump threatened to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum, increasing them to 50% from 25%, effective Wednesday.Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index eased to 48.5 in May from 48.7 in April. This figure came in weaker than the expectation of 49.5. Traders would likely observe the release of the JOLTS Job Openings later on Tuesday. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned on Tuesday, “higher US tariffs will put a drag on the global economy.”

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned on Tuesday, “higher US tariffs will put a drag on the global economy.”Additional quotesAssuming weaker global growth environment will moderately dampen prices for tradable goods.

Higher uncertainty can lead to declines in investment, output and employment.

Higher global uncertainty has a large negative effect on Australian business investment.

Australia’s exporters are relatively well-placed to weather the storm.

Assuming Chinese authorities will support their economy through fiscal stimulus.Market reactionAUD/USD was last seen trading 0.45% lower on the day at 0.6470. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens on Tuesday. The renewed US Dollar (USD) demand and a rise in crude oil prices put pressure on the local currency.

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The renewed US Dollar (USD) demand and a rise in crude oil prices put pressure on the local currency. Barclays Bank Plc strategists said that the INR is likely to underperform even as the USD remains under pressure. “The RBI is expected to be focused on replenishing its FX buffers while allowing its forwards book to run off,” added Barclays Bank Plc strategists. Nonetheless, stronger GDP data from India and inflows related to the rejig of a global equity index could provide some support to the Indian currency. The US JOLTs Job Openings will be published later on Tuesday. On Friday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) interest rate decision and the US May employment report will be in the spotlight. The Indian central bank is anticipated to deliver a third straight 25 basis points (bps) rate cut to boost growth.Indian Rupee edges lower on higher oil pricesThe US President Donald Trump's administration has asked its trade partners to submit their best offers by Wednesday, in order to finalize deals before July 8, per Reuters. India's GDP expanded by 7.4% year-on-year in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, up from 6.2% the previous quarter and stronger than the estimation of 6.7%.India is the world's fastest-growing major economy, albeit growth has slowed significantly from the 9.2% reported in fiscal year 2023-24.The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 48.5 in May from 48.7 in April, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday. This figure came in weaker than the expectation of 49.5. USD/INR’s bearish pressure lingers despite modest recoveryThe Indian Rupee softens on the day. The USD/INR pair maintains the negative view as the price remains capped under the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. However, in the near term, further consolidation or temporary recovery cannot be ruled out, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midline.The first bearish target for USD/INR emerges in the 85.05-85.00 zone, representing the low of May 27 and the round figure. If bearish pressure kicks in, the pair could slip back toward 84.61, the low of May 12. The additional downside filter to watch is 83.85, the lower limit of the trend channel.In the bullish case, the crucial resistance level for the pair is located in the 85.55-85.60 region, the confluence of the 100-day EMA, and the upper boundary of the trend channel. A decisive break above the mentioned level could open the door for a retest of the high of May 22 at 86.10. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.


The Japanese Yen (JPY) retreated sharply from a one-week low touched against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday.

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Calls for the BoJ to slow tapering beyond 2026 and a positive risk tone undermine the JPY.The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations should cap any meaningful upside for the pair.The Japanese Yen (JPY) retreated sharply from a one-week low touched against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday. Comments from a former Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Makoto Sakurai, along with requests made at a meeting between the central bank and financial institutions on May 20-21, suggest that the BoJ might proceed slowly in reducing its balance sheet. Furthermore, this underscores the challenge the BoJ faces in removing its massive monetary stimulus. Adding to this, a modest recovery in the global risk sentiment prompts traders to lighten their JPY bullish bets.Any meaningful JPY depreciation, however, still seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the BoJ will continue raising interest rates amid the broadening inflation in Japan. The bets were reaffirmed by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks in the Japanese parliament. This, along with rising trade and geopolitical tensions, could support the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, hawkish BoJ expectations mark a big divergence in comparison to the market pricing of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, which should cap any US Dollar (USD) recovery and benefit the lower-yielding JPY. Japanese Yen bulls opt to take some profits off the table; downside potential seems limitedA former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai said this Tuesday that the central bank is expected to halt its quarterly reductions in government bond purchases starting next fiscal year. Sakurai noted that authorities are concerned that continued reductions could push yields higher, making it harder to manage the economy and government debt.Minutes of a meeting between the BoJ and financial institutions held in May revealed that the central bank received a sizable number of requests to maintain or slightly slow the pace of tapering in its bond purchases from fiscal year 2026. The BoJ will conduct a review of its current taper plan at its next monetary policy meeting scheduled on June 16-17.BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated earlier today that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts. Ueda, however, cautioned that it is important to make a judgment without any preset ideas as uncertainties over overseas trade policies and economic situations remain extremely high.Meanwhile, the current market pricing indicates around a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least two 25 basis points interest rate cuts by the end of this year. Moreover, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that the US central bank would lower short-term rates once the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is resolved.On the economic data front, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey published on Monday showed that economic activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted for a third straight month in May. The ISM Manufacturing PMI receded to 48.5 from 48.7 in April and came in below analysts’ estimates of 49.5, which should cap the US Dollar. Russia and Ukraine held a second round of negotiations on Monday to find a way to end the three-year war amid escalating conflict. In fact, Ukraine launched a surprise attack on Russian airbases, while Russia deployed a record-breaking 472 one-way attack drones as well as several ballistic and cruise missiles against Ukraine just before the peace talks.Russia, meanwhile, rejected an unconditional ceasefire and said that it would only agree to end the war if Ukraine gave up big new chunks of territory and accepted limits on the size of its army. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which, in turn, should further contribute to limiting any meaningful depreciation move for the safe-haven JPY. Traders now look forward to the release of the US JOLTS Job Openings data, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. USD/JPY might struggle to capitalize on the intraday bounce beyond the 100-hour SMAFrom a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown below the 143.65-143.60 horizontal support, which coincided with the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), was seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bears. The said area should now keep a lid on any further intraday move-up. A sustained strength beyond, however, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift spot prices to the 144.00 mark. The momentum could extend further, though it runs the risk of fizzling out near the 144.40-144.45 supply zone.On the flip side, weakness back below the 143.00 mark could find some support near the Asian session low, around the 142.40-142.35 region. This is followed by the 142.10 area, or last week's swing low, below which the USD/JPY pair could resume its recent downfall from the May monthly swing high. Spot prices might then weaken to the next relevant support near the 141.60 area before eventually dropping to sub-141.00 levels. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) depreciated against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday after registering around 1% gains in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar faced losses after the publication of the RBA Minutes from its May monetary policy meeting.China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index contracted to 48.3 in May, against a 50.4 expansion in April.The US Dollar recovered some losses despite growing concerns regarding stagflation in the United States.The Australian Dollar (AUD) depreciated against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday after registering around 1% gains in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes.RBA Minutes of its May monetary policy meeting suggested that the board viewed the case for a 25 basis point cut as a stronger one, preferring a policy to be cautious and predictable. The policymakers highlighted that US trade policy posed a significant and adverse impact on the global outlook, but had not yet affected the Australian economy, however, they did not persuade that a 50 bps was needed.China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly fell to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, falling short of the market expectations of a 50.6 expansion. However, the weekend data showed that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May, from April’s 49.0 reading. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 from the previous 50.4 figure, falling short of the expected reading of 50.6. The Aussie Dollar could be impacted by Chinese economic data as both countries are close trading partners.However, the AUD/USD pair may regain its ground as the Greenback may continue to struggle amid rising fears over slow growth and renewed inflation in the United States (US). US President Donald Trump threatened to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum, increasing them to 50% from 25%, effective Wednesday.Australian Dollar depreciates as US Dollar recovers despite rising economic concernsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, is trading higher near 98.80 at the time of writing. Traders would likely observe the release of the JOLTs Job Openings later on Tuesday.Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index eased to 48.5 in May from 48.7 in April. This figure came in weaker than the expectation of 49.5.US President Donald Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania on Friday that he planned to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum to build up pressure on global steel producers and intensify the trade war. "We are going to be imposing a 25% increase. We're going to bring it from 25% to 50% - the tariffs on steel into the United States of America, which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States," he said, per Reuters.The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, on Thursday, temporarily put a hold on a federal court ruling and allowed President Trump's tariffs to take effect. On Wednesday, a three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan halted Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect. The federal court found that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing broad import tariffs and declared the executive orders issued on April 2 unlawful.House Republicans passed Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package, which could increase the US fiscal deficit, along with the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. This scenario raises concerns over the US economy and prompts traders to sell American assets under the “Sell America” trend. Policy experts anticipate Senate changes as GOP lawmakers aim to finalize the “big bill” by July 4.On Friday, Trump accused China of breaching a truce on tariffs reached earlier this month. Washington and Beijing agreed to temporarily lower reciprocal tariffs in a meeting in Geneva. Trump said that China had "totally violated its agreement with us". US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also said that China had failed to remove non-tariff barriers as agreed.In response, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that China had complied with the agreement by cancelling or suspending relevant tariff and non-tariff measures aimed at US "reciprocal tariffs."ANZ Job Advertisements declined by 1.2% in May, following a revised 0.3% fall in the previous month. The Australian job ads drop for the second consecutive month. Moreover, S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 51.0 in May from 51.7 prior, dropping for the second straight month to the lowest level since February.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver more rate cuts in the upcoming policy meetings. The central bank acknowledged progress in curbing inflation and warned that US-China trade barriers pose downside risks to economic growth. Governor Michele Bullock stated that the RBA is prepared to take additional action if the economic outlook deteriorates sharply, raising the prospect of future rate cuts.Australian Dollar falls toward nine-day EMA near 0.6450AUD/USD is trading around 0.6468 on Tuesday, suggesting a persistent bullish bias. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. The short-term price momentum strengthens as the pair stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting a strengthening bullish bias.The AUD/USD pair could find an initial barrier at 0.6537, a seven-month high recorded on May 26. A break above this crucial resistance zone could reinforce the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6660.On the downside, the primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6456, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6450. A break below this crucial support zone could weaken the bullish bias and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6393.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.14% 0.11% 0.24% 0.10% 0.32% 0.09% 0.05% EUR -0.14% 0.00% 0.13% -0.03% 0.20% 0.00% -0.07% GBP -0.11% 0.00% 0.14% -0.03% 0.20% 0.01% -0.07% JPY -0.24% -0.13% -0.14% -0.15% 0.06% -0.16% -0.12% CAD -0.10% 0.03% 0.03% 0.15% 0.17% 0.03% -0.04% AUD -0.32% -0.20% -0.20% -0.06% -0.17% -0.19% -0.27% NZD -0.09% -0.01% -0.01% 0.16% -0.03% 0.19% -0.08% CHF -0.05% 0.07% 0.07% 0.12% 0.04% 0.27% 0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

According to a draft of the government’s economic policy roadmap obtained by Reuters, “Japan is expected to promote domestic ownership of government bonds to avoid further rises in long-term interest rates.”

According to a draft of the government’s economic policy roadmap obtained by Reuters, “Japan is expected to promote domestic ownership of government bonds to avoid further rises in long-term interest rates.”Additional takeawaysJapan may reassess primary balance target year as needed amid uncertain impact from the US tariff measures.

Japan government to aim to achieve primary balance surplus as early as possible during fiscal years 2025 to 2026.Market reactionAt the press time, the Japanese Yen (JPY) fails to benefit from these headlines, as USD/JPY adds 0.30% on the day to 143.15.

China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly contracted to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, according to the latest data released on Tuesday.

China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly contracted to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, according to the latest data released on Tuesday.Data underperformed the market forecast of a 50.6 expansion.AUD/USD reaction to China’s PMI data

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.3, below expectations (50.6) in May

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its May monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, highlighting that the board decided the case for a 25 basis points (bps) cut was a stronger one and preferred policy to be cautious and predictable.

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Decided case for a 25 bps cut was a stronger one, preferred policy to be cautious and predictable.
Inflation still not at mid-point of target band, labour market still tight.
Board agreed developments in domestic economy alone warranted a rate cut.
Progress on inflation meant policy did not need to be as restrictive.
Some downside risk that domestic household consumption might not pick up.
Larger move might offer more insurance against adverse global scenarios.
US trade policy was a significant and adverse development for global outlook.
Board not persuaded that 50 bps was needed, US tariffs had not yet affected Australian economy.
Would be challenging for business, households if aggressive easing had to be reversed.
Board judged not yet time to move monetary policy to an expansionary setting.
Expansionary policy might be needed if worst of global trade scenarios eventuated.
Policy well placed to respond decisively if international devlopments warranted it.Market reaction to the RBA Meeting Minutes At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading 0.19% lower on the day to trade at 0.6483.   RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (1.1%) in 1Q

Australia Current Account Balance below forecasts (-12B) in 1Q: Actual (-14.7B)

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the Japanese economy is modestly recovering despite some weakness.

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Corporate profits are improving, with business sentiment solid.
As the slowdown in the overseas economy pressures corporate profits, the pace of economic growth is expected to slow down.
Import prices pushing up inflation are expected to wane.
Uncertainties over overseas trade policies and economic, price situations remain extremely high.
Will continue to raise interest rates if the economy, and prices move in line with forecasts.Market reaction  As of writing, the USD/JPY pair was up 0.10% on the day at 142.85. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1869 as compared to last Friday's fix of 7.1848 and 7.1872 Reuters estimate.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1869 as compared to last Friday's fix of 7.1848 and 7.1872 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.40 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided to increase their production again.  

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The group noted in a statement that a “steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories” was its reasoning for the July increase. Meanwhile, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raise uncertainty about the flow of oil and gas around the world, lifting the WTI price. Reuters reported late Monday that Iran is poised to reject a US proposal to end a decades-old nuclear dispute after the US draft insisted that Tehran would have to suspend the enrichment of uranium inside Iran. Oil traders will closely monitor the US employment report for May, which is due later on Friday. This report could offer some hints about the US economy and interest rate path. If the data shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could boost the Greenback and cap the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

 

Bank of Japan (BoJ) former board member Makoto Sakurai said on Tuesday that the Japanese central bank will probably halt its quarterly reductions in government bond purchases starting next fiscal year, per Bloomberg. 

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Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI: 52.6 (May) vs previous 53

An Iranian diplomat said on Monday that Tehran is poised to reject a US proposal to end a decades-old nuclear dispute after the US draft insisted that Iran would have to suspend the enrichment of uranium inside Iran, per Reuters. 

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Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

GBP/USD jumped on Monday, kicking off the June trading window by climbing back above 1.3550 after a broad-market weakening in Greenback flows.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD climbed back above 1.3550 on Monday as risk sentiment drags down the US Dollar.The Trump administration is poised to raise steel tariffs and has given a “last call” for trade deal offers.The BoE is set to deliver its latest update to the British Parliament on Tuesday.GBP/USD jumped on Monday, kicking off the June trading window by climbing back above 1.3550 after a broad-market weakening in Greenback flows. Trade frictions continue to weigh on the US Dollar, and Cable traders are leaning into the bullish side ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest Monetary Policy Report hearings before British parliament on Tuesday.The Trump administration hit another flurry of trade headlines on Monday; Donald Trump announced late lasts week that he intended to double tariffs on all steel imported into the US to 50% beginning next week. President Trump announced the new trade measure during a speech to a United Auto Workers union rally last Friday. China has responded to the Trump administration’s accusations that China is violating early trade terms that the two countries tentatively reached during sideline meetings in Switzerland in May.Read more tariff news: Trump gives Wednesday deadline for trading partners to table their best offersDonald Trump expressed frustration at China’s apparent slow-rolling of approvals for rare earths exports bound for the US; China fired back early this week, stating that they are operating within the initial timelines agreed to in Switzerland, and fired back that the US is actually the one violating trade terms by introducing new curbs on tech exports targeting China specifically. Despite constant claims from Trump staffers that deal talks are progressing, tensions between the US and China appear to be mounting.The BoE remains increasingly cautious in the face of potential fallout from whiplash tariff policies from the US. The BoE’s latest Monetary Policy Report statements, being delivered to the British parliament on Tuesday, are expected to reinforce rate-hold rhetoric from policymakers. The Pound Sterling caught a firm bid through the first and second quarters after the BoE shifted its stance to delivering far fewer rate cuts this year than many market participants had initially expected.GBP/USD price forecastDespite a near-term pullback, Cable continues to trade firmly into the bullish side. Bids have outrun both rising trendlines and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently rising above 1.2900. Price action caught another leg up to reclaim chart territory north of the 1.3500 handle on Monday, and bids are within a stone’s throw of setting fresh two-year highs near 1.3600.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said late Monday that he may dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap general election if the main opposition party submits a no-confidence motion, per Japan Today. 

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The USD/CAD pair remains on the defensive near 1.3715 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) softens to fresh seven-week lows amid jitters over the health of the US economy. The JOLTs Job Openings will be published later on Tuesday. 

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) softens to fresh seven-week lows amid jitters over the health of the US economy. The JOLTs Job Openings will be published later on Tuesday. The Greenback edges lower as traders remain concerned over the ongoing tariff uncertainty and its potential to hurt growth in the US economy. US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he plans to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum, effective Wednesday. This put pressure on global steel producers and intensified trade war. "Any time we see a resurgence in tariff concerns, everyone begins to pile back into the 'sell America' trade once more," said Michael Brown, market analyst at online broker Pepperstone in London. Additionally, the US manufacturing sector has continued a trend of contraction for three consecutive months. This downbeat US economic data contributes to the USD’s downside. Data released from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 48.5 in May from 48.7 in April. This figure came in weaker than the expectation of 49.5. Later on Friday, all eyes will be on the US employment report for May. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to show job growth of 130K in May, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2% in the same report period. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback and help limit the pair’s losses. Meanwhile, a rise in Crude Oil prices after the report that the OPEC+ kept output hikes unchanged, raising its production by the expected 411K barrels per day (bpd) in July, might underpin the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.  Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

New Zealand Terms of Trade Index below expectations (3.1%) in 1Q: Actual (1.9%)

The NZD/JPY begins Tuesday’s Asian session flat after registering minimal gains of over 0.24% on Monday amid a risk-on mood. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 86.13, unchanged.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/JPY maintains bullish trend with higher highs and lows since April’s 79.81 bottom.Break above 87.01 needed to extend rally toward 87.73 and YTD high at 89.70.Key support seen at 84.61; breach opens path toward 84.21 Kumo top and 83.77 Senkou Span B.The NZD/JPY begins Tuesday’s Asian session flat after registering minimal gains of over 0.24% on Monday amid a risk-on mood. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 86.13, unchanged.NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe NZD/JPY seems to have bottomed, with the pair remaining near current levels after hitting a yearly low of 79.81 on April 9. Since then, the pair climbed past the 86.00 figure, with price action printing a successive series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that the overall trend is up.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also climbed past its 50 neutral line, although it signals that further consolidation lies ahead, given the lack of a catalyst.For a bullish continuation, the NZD/JPY needs to clear the May 29 high at 87.01. A breach of the latter will clear the path to challenge higher prices, with May 13 swing high up next at 87.73, ahead of the year-to-date (YTD) high of 89.70.Conversely, a drop below the May 22 swing low of 84.61 and the NZD/JPY could test the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) at around 84.21. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the Senkou Span B at 83.77.NZD/JPY Price Chart – Daily New Zealand Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% -0.02% -0.09% 0.00% 0.00% -0.08% -0.11% EUR 0.01% 0.02% -0.05% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% -0.08% GBP 0.02% -0.02% -0.08% 0.01% 0.02% -0.00% -0.10% JPY 0.09% 0.05% 0.08% 0.08% 0.07% 0.03% 0.05% CAD -0.00% -0.03% -0.01% -0.08% -0.05% -0.02% -0.11% AUD -0.01% -0.03% -0.02% -0.07% 0.05% -0.02% -0.11% NZD 0.08% -0.02% 0.00% -0.03% 0.02% 0.02% -0.09% CHF 0.11% 0.08% 0.10% -0.05% 0.11% 0.11% 0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading positively in the early hours of Tuesday's Asian session, while the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure.

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This announcement, along with the release of disappointing economic data on Monday, has added further pressure on the Greenback.The combination of increasing geopolitical risks, a decline in the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reading for May, and a break of key technical resistance may continue to support the AUD/USD pair on Tuesday.Markets began the week with a risk-off sentiment on Monday, following several posts from Trump accusing China of violating the temporary trade agreement established on May 12. In that agreement, both nations committed to enhancing their trade relations. Subsequently, the announcement of additional tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports to the US had a positive impact on the AUD/USD pair, pushing it to the significant psychological level of resistance at 0.6500.Furthermore, the May ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which gauges the health of the US manufacturing sector, declined in May. It missed analyst forecasts of 49.5, registering a reading of 48.5, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector.RBA Meeting Minutes in focus as AUD/USD tests critical zone of resistanceWith the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) scheduled to release the Meeting Minutes from the May 20 meeting at 01:30 GMT, the release may continue to drive AUD/USD price action. With the Minutes expected to shed light on the economic outlook and near-term Monetary Policy expectations, any surprises, such as the RBA's willingness to slow the pace of rate cuts, may provide an additional catalyst for the AUD/USD pair.As the 0.6500 level holds firm, Tuesday's developments will be key in determining whether AUD/USD can clear technical resistance or if a correction may be on the horizon, depending on the technical and fundamental developments in both nations. Economic Indicator RBA Meeting Minutes The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 03, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Weekly Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes of its monetary policy meeting two weeks after the interest rate decision is announced. It provides a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the AUD. The minutes also reveal considerations on international economic developments and the exchange rate value. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) caught a fresh bid against the US Dollar (USD), with June’s market window kicking things off with a fresh six-month peak in intraday Loonie bids against the Greenback.

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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

The AUD/JPY is poised to close on Monday with gains of over 0.09% amid a subdued trading session, despite an improvement in risk appetite during the day. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 92.74 after bouncing off a daily low of 92.37.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/JPY capped at 92.89; break above Tenkan-sen may target 93.86 and 94.00.RSI flat, showing lack of momentum as session remains subdued.Key support at 92.00 and Kumo top near 91.50/75; break below could test 90.83.The AUD/JPY is poised to close on Monday with gains of over 0.09% amid a subdued trading session, despite an improvement in risk appetite during the day. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 92.74 after bouncing off a daily low of 92.37.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe AUD/JPY trades sideways, capped on the upside by last Friday’s high of 92.89 amid a lack of catalysts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned flat at its 50-neutral line, an indication that neither buyers nor sellers are in charge.If AUD/JPY climbs past the Tenkan-sen at 92.75, this clears the path to challenge the Kijun-sen at 93.10 if surpassed, the cross-pair could reach the May 28 swing high of 93.86. Once cleared, the 94.00 figure is up for grabs.Conversely, for a bearish continuation, sellers need to drive the AUD/JPY below the May 30 daily low of 92.00 ahead of testing the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) at around 91.50/75. Once surpassed, the next demand zone will be the Senkou Span B at 90.83.AUD/JPY Price Chart – Daily Australian Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.03% -0.01% 0.00% 0.04% 0.04% -0.00% -0.09% EUR -0.03% -0.00% 0.00% -0.03% 0.04% 0.04% -0.11% GBP 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.01% 0.08% 0.09% -0.10% JPY 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.01% 0.02% 0.01% -0.01% CAD -0.04% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% -0.73% 0.06% -0.06% AUD -0.04% -0.04% -0.08% -0.02% 0.73% -0.00% -0.15% NZD 0.00% -0.04% -0.09% -0.01% -0.06% 0.00% -0.14% CHF 0.09% 0.11% 0.10% 0.01% 0.06% 0.15% 0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
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การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)