Análisis de mercado diario

The reality of the outcome from the mid-term election results that Democrats will take control of the House while Republicans hold the Senate has not created too much volatility for financial markets.

Investors were reasonably well positioned for this outcome before the event, therefore it hasn’t been as much of a nervous few hours for investors as some political events have been in recent history. The USD has edged gradually lower against many of its counterparts over the course of this week, with this related to expectations that the Democrats winning some influence can provide some legislative resistance towards Trump pushing forward further pro-America policies.  

The eventuality that the Democrats have fallen short of achieving a “blue wave” has prevented the worst-case scenario for financial markets from occurring.

It was always going to be a long shot due to its unlikely probability, but there were concerns that the Democrats winning control of the Senate would have ramped up the chances of President Trump being impeached. This would have been the most unfavorable outcome for investors despite its low probability, because it would have run the risk of sparking wild financial market volatility and potential black swan events.  

What matters moving forward is whether this change of play represents enough uncertainty around political “gridlock” that it will weigh on the USD. The Greenback itself remains at historically very strong levels and does appear overvalued against many of its global counterparts, however it is not clear whether this result will create enough change to foreign and trade policy decisions that it would encourage investors to seriously unwind USD positions.

              
At the moment we do see some near-term pressure on the USD but the jury is very much out for how long this could last. This depends on whether a shift in power could actually influence Trump's policies from being passed through legislation.

The Greenback has edged lower against most of its counterparts in Asia at time of writing, and this form is being replicated across most of the G10 as European trading is set to get underway, but investors would need to see some fundamental shifts that the outcome in the mid-terms could really change matters behind the scenes to receive the needed encouragement to drag the Greenback further lower moving forward.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

The market positioning at time of writing further suggests that investors remain hesitant to take on risk just hours before the mid-term elections in the United States gets underway, with one of the more interesting trends to unfold during Tuesday trading being that the Dollar is starting to trend lower against most of its G10 counterparts.

Both the British Pound and Euro have edged higher on Greenback weakness, with the Sterling hitting its highest level in two weeks on renewed hopes that a Brexit deal will be announced soon. This optimism has improved the fortunes of the Pound by 0.29%, while the New Zealand Dollar has edged higher by 0.27% and the Australian Dollar by 0.26%.

Only the Swedish Krona, Norwegian Krone, Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar have weakened against the Greenback at time of writing with these losses stretching no higher than a marginal 0.10% at most.

Source: Bloomberg Terminal

The current performance of the Dollar elsewhere is largely mixed, which provides a general representation of investors remaining on a wait-and-see mode before the outcome of the mid-terms becomes clearer in approximately 12 hours from now at time of writing.

Expectations in the media do seem to be shifting more closely to the view that the Democrats will regain some authority behind the scenes, which is not considered as a market-friendly outcome for the Dollar due to concerns that President Trump will face improved resistance at pushing through his legislative reforms.

Let’s wait and see what happens with this one!

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.